Apple's 'record' iPhone sales were probably flat, says analyst Gene Munster

Apple announced that it was on pace to have record opening weekend iPhone sales for the iPhone 6S.

What does that mean in terms of real numbers? Analyst Gene Munster does his best to break it down.

Here's what he said in a research note:

• How To Think About Pre-Orders. Last year, Apple announced a 24 hour pre-order number for iPhone 6 of 4 million units. Given Apple's commentary to the media, we do not expect the company to give a pre-order number this year. We believe that pre-orders are the best indication of demand. Apple's statement for more than 10 million units in opening weekend indicates actual units shipped to customers with any incremental units beyond initial demand going to fill the channel. While we view today's comments as positive overall, we believe they are driven more by production, which makes it difficult to triangulate actual demand. The reality is that demand is good enough that Apple is selling as many units as the company can make and thus initial production of the iPhone 6S is better than the iPhone 6.
• Expect China Addition To Add 2 Million Units To Opening Weekend. The iPhone 6S launch in China will be the same time as the global launch for the first time. Therefore, our expected 12-13 million units has an incremental benefit from China that was not part of last year's iPhone 6 launch. We believe the China impact is likely to be around 2 million units. Thus normalizing for the China addition, the iPhone 6S launch seems to be tracking flat to up 10% vs. our up 3% y/y for the full 6S cycle and the Street at flat. Beyond China, New Zealand is the only other addition to the typical list of launch countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Puerto Rico, Singapore, the UK and the US).

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