For all the regulation, tax increases, and bad PR, the
Like any other industry, analysts try to predict where it's headed. But because of tobacco's negative cultural cachet (and carcinogens), commentary can feel a little uncomfortable.
Take this note from
What does the housing
"With housing starts on the rise, construction workers (a leading group of tobacco consumers) are entering the workforce and have incremental income to spend on tobacco," writes RBC.
RBC
More construction workers, who are typically lower income and thus more likely to smoke, have money to buy cigarettes.
Or how about falling gas prices, another big market trend in 2013?
"Gasoline prices have fallen throughout 2013, down -23% from February highs," writes RBC. "With lower gasoline prices, tobacco consumers have relatively more money left in their pockets after filling up at the pump to buy cigarettes and other tobacco products."
Again, lower income smokers are the ones who are more likely to have to make the economic choice between gasoline and cigarettes.
RBC
It's not all roses for Big Tobacco. "An offset to the positive macro data points is the reduction of food stamp benefit," according to RBC. "And while food stamps have not been used to purchase tobacco, we estimate consumers will have $10 less per month of 'purchasing power,' which we believe will have some marginal negative impact on tobacco consumption."
RBC