America's budget deficit this year will be the lowest since 2007
The Congressional Budget Office's most recent estimate from March puts the deficit for the year ending September 30, 2015 at $486 billion or 2.7% of GDP.
This is virtually unchanged from the $483 billion deficit (2.8% of GDP) that was recorded last fiscal year.
However, in a note to clients on Monday, analysts at Goldman said that recent data points to an upside surprise, and the firm says the deficit will actually go down from last year to $425 billion, or just 2.4% of GDP.
If Goldman is correct, this would bring the deficit down to it's lowest level (both in dollars and as a percentage of GDP) since FY 2007, when it was $160.7 billion (1.1% of GDP). This would also mark the sixth straight year in the decline of defect as a percentage of GDP since it ballooned to 9.8% in 2009.
Here's a chart from Goldman comparing the dollar value of the most recent federal deficits:
But those who want the government to be put on a diet shouldn't celebrate just yet.
"Although we expect the deficit to come in modestly lower this year, the improvement is apt to be temporary in our view, with a deficit of $525bn in FY2016 and $500bn in FY2017," Goldman wrote.
The predictions, in turn, are well above the CBO's March estimates of $455 billion deficits in both 2016 and 2017.