Vladimir Putin has invaded and annexed Crimea, continuing a Kremlin practice of employing military intervention abroad under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians and Russian interests.
While Putin's creep into Ukraine is far from over, there are other military moves Russia could make to extend its post-Soviet sphere of influence.
Wikistrat, a consultancy that analyzes geopolitical and economic forces using crowd-sourced expertise, has been calculating what could potentially happen next in the region.
In January, Wikistrat analysts forecasted the potential for Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to resign (which he did a month later) and for Crimea to request annexation into Russia (which occurred this week).
Recently, 66 analysts spent five days exploring scenarios involving all types of interventions, from small-scale missions against criminals and terrorists to outright invasions and massive cyber-attacks.
Here are five plausible and alarming scenarios compiled by Wikistrat Senior Analyst (and BI contributor) Prof. Mark Galeotti:
