- A new note from investment firm UBS breaks down how TV networks will fare under new pressure from the coronavirus.
- The company looked at how dependent the major networks that air sports including NBCUniversal, CBSViacom, and Disney are on news, entertainment and kids programming to balance out the losses from sports programming.
- The analysts said that the news viewing bump would insulate Fox, Comcast and AT&T from the drop in sports programming.
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2020 is turning out to be tough for TV networks, with the coronavirus cancelling sporting events like March Madness that bring big viewership numbers and the risk of a postponed Tokyo Summer Olympics threatening to pull at least $1.5 billion in ad commitments from longtime Olympics broadcaster NBCUniversal.
"With the NBA, NHL and MLB suspending their seasons and the NCAA cancelling March Madness, trends in TV viewership should go from bad to abysmal over the next couple of months," UBS analysts said in a new note. UBS wrote that TV viewership was already on track to decline 8% for the first quarter of 2020, and that "The lack of sports will push us much deeper into unchartered territory."
But overall, the impact from sports will be small, with a bump in news viewer shp insulating Fox, Comcast and AT&T from the drop in sports programming, according to UBS. Sports represents 6% of overall TV viewership while news represents 10% of viewership. Entertainment makes up 79% of viewing and kids programming represents 5%.
UBS outlined the TV networks that are best poised to weather the virus based on how the networks programming breaks down between news and sports. Last week, UBS published a similar note about the media companies most at risk because of coronavirus, looking at how revenue breaks down across films, advertising, and theme parks.
News viewership has spiked with millions of people at home keeping up on the coronavirus, especially on cable news, according to UBS. UBS estimates that cable TV represents 17% of viewership in recent weeks, up from 11% last year. In addition to coronavirus coverage, cable networks are benefitting from this year's presidential election.
News is protecting some networks from large viewership hits
UBS used viewership data from the second half of 2019 to analyze how each network's programming slate breaks down. Networks with higher percentages of news programming are expected to be better insulated from the lack of sports programming.
1. Fox:
News: 70%
Sports: 19%
Entertainment: 11%
2. NBCUniversal:
News: 30%
Sports: 10%
Entertainment: 58%
Kids: 1%
3. Turner:
News: 24%
Sports: 11%
Entertainment: 53%
Kids: 13%
4. Disney:
News: 10%
Sports: 25%
Entertainment: 44%
Kids: 20%
5. ViacomCBS:
News: 6%
Sports: 4%
Entertainment: 71%
Kids: 19%
Entertainment and kids content could face challenges in the coming months
While news programming is seeing a significant jump in viewership, the UBS analysts said that it's not clear how kids and entertainment programming will fare.
Disney, Netflix, NBCUniversal, Warner Bros., and CBS have all cancelled or delayed production, which is likely to impact the availability of new content for the general entertainment networks in coming quarters, wrote the UBS analysts.
But without sports programs that typically attract high viewership and ad prices, broadcasters could increase the pricing for entertainment programs.
Despite kids being at home from closed schools, UBS expected a boost in kids' programming to be short-term, citing challenges around subscription-based streaming services.