Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkar? Exit Polls Suggest It Just Might Be

The exit polls conducted by various news channels have unanimously projected that NDA will get the magical figure of 272 or at least be in striking distance of forming the next government.

The exit polls also indicate that the BJP is all set to come up with its best ever performance. In contrast, the Congress is headed towards its worst ever performance, with its total number of seats projected to be in the range of 100, as per the exit polls.

Four channels – NewsX, India TV, ABP News and CNN-IBN – have projected comfortable majority for the NDA. NewsX and India TV have projected 289 seats for the NDA while ABP News estimated that the NDA would capture 281 seats. However, Times Now was the most conservative in its projections, giving the NDA 249-265 Lok Sabha seats, while CNN-IBN gave it 279-282 seats.

Hindi news channel News24 gave NDA a thumping majority and predicted it to bag 340 seats. On the other hand, Aaj Tak predicted the NDA figures in the range of 261-283. Even if the party gets 261, getting the support of 11 more MPs should not be too difficult, given the fact that the AIADMK chief Jayalalitha is said to be close to Narendra Modi and has extended her support to the coalition in the past during the tenure of the Vajpayee government.

Most of the exit polls showed the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) getting between 101 and 148 seats. NewsX gave the UPA 101 seats, India TV 107 seats, ABP News 97 and CNN-IBN 92-102.

‘Others’, including regional parties like the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samajwadi Party, JD (U) and the Left Front, are estimated to get between 146 and 156 seats.

The exit polls also forecast that the BJP would not be able to open its account in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. However, in the North, the Narendra Modi wave is projected to sweep away regional identity-based heavyweights like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar.

The BJP is likely have the biggest gains in Uttar Pradesh where two surveys expect it to bag 54 seats, just three less than its all-time high of 57 in 1998. Similarly, the exit polls ruled out the possibility of RJD’s revival.

The debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to get an average of only five seats, with a total vote share of about 4%.