A wealth manager for the ultra rich explains why he's advising clients to avoid stocks - and reveals where they should put their money instead
- A top private wealth advisor says investors should consider holding on to their cash, and warns that stocks have rallied too far and too fast this year.
- The market has surged even as experts have cut their corporate earnings growth forecasts, but Garrett Roche of Uxbridge Capital Partners says investors aren't certain where the market will go next.
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch reported this month that traders are keeping more cash on the sideline than they have in a decade.
A top private wealth advisor is telling investors to hold onto their cash in 2019, saying it doesn't make sense that stocks have skyrocketed as profit forecasts have dimmed.
"The rate of change is in the wrong direction for explosive stock market growth," Garrett Roche, lead private wealth advisor, investment portfolio strategist, and risk consultant at Uxbridge Capital Partners, told Business Insider.
"It's just too much, too fast," added Roche, a former vice president on Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Global Investment Strategy team.
Stocks have soared following a dizzying plunge from late September to late December. Increased confidence in the global economy has contributed to that rally, and so has the Federal Reserve's hint that it's going to think hard before raising interest rates any further.
But that rally has happened even as experts project weaker profit growth for companies around the world. Roche, whose firm gives advice to about 40 ultra high-net-worth people, said that after falling too far last year, stocks may have gone too far in the other direction the last two months.
"When EPS estimates are being revised down, it's not bullish for stocks," he said "All of the fundamental and macroeconomic data has deteriorated since October."
Read more: The stock market plunge last year helped make cash the best-performing asset class for 2018.
Despite the colossal surge over the last two months, surveys shows that investors aren't sure where the market will go next. More of them are simply holding onto their cash rather than taking a chance on a higher-returning investment. They haven't kept this much cash since early 2009, during the Great Recession.
Roche feels that algorithmic trading has helped push stocks to unreasonable highs lately.
"Just as we sort of recovered to normal level I think the machines started to see momentum, and they've chased it up for the last two or three weeks," he said, adding that that's left many stocks overbought.\
This chart below illustrates the degree to which stocks have jumped even as corporate earnings estimates had slid:
While most analysts think the S&P 500 will eventually break the record high it set in September, Roche has his doubts that the market can make a complete recovery. He agrees with many other professionals, however, that choppy times are ahead, and picking the right stocks to invest in will be more crucial than usual.
Roche says he's been telling clients to raise their cash levels since the summer, but adds that real estate investment trusts and health care companies still have some value and that emerging markets indexes including Asia and Latin America could also do well.