A theory about the fight over Mitt Romney
But I do have a theory that I don't think has been fully considered.
In the case of Mitt Romney as a candidate for the post, Trump's incentives are not aligned with those of his entourage. They have good reason to oppose Romney even if Trump wants him - especially if Trump wants him.
Remember the calculus for the C-listers who signed up with Trump early.
They debased themselves by signing up with a candidate who was widely considered ridiculous and unacceptable by Republican insiders. In exchange, they would line up - in the unlikely event Trump won - for administration jobs for which they would otherwise be considered laughably unsuitable.
This calculus seems to have worked out for Michael Flynn and perhaps Ben Carson. But a Romney appointment would be a severe threat to the dynamic the Trump sycophants depend on.
If a consummate party establishmentarian who did not support Trump - indeed, one who said Trump was "playing the American public for suckers" - can be forgiven and given a top job, what role will be left for Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee?
Therefore, it is in the best interest of Trump's insiders to reinforce Trump's instincts to prioritize loyalty over experience, and also in their interest to discourage people outside Trump's sycophant circle from even seeking jobs in the administration.
So, maybe all the Romney-bashing leaks really are freelancing by self-interested aides, rather than a Trump-directed effort to humiliate a former rival.
The latest skirmish in this fight came Monday morning, when MSNBC's Morning Joe reported Trump is "furious" with his campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, for publicly urging him not to pick Romney, saying it would be seen as a "betrayal."*
Morning Joe cited "two sources at the top of the Trump transition team" who had spoken with Trump about Conway's comments.
Later Monday morning, Conway texted Joe Scarborough of Morning Joe to say his reporting was wrong and "sexist."
"She says she can have any job she wants," said Scarborough, which is not exactly a normal public assertion by a top aide to a president-elect.
Conway's main mistake may have been making the criticism too much about Trump - saying the appointment would make supporters feel "betrayed" - rather than focusing solely on Romney.
Admittedly, it has always seemed strange that Trump, an egomaniac who is obsessed with being shown respect and loyalty, would consider appointing Romney, who called Trump a "phony" and a "fraud" whose foreign policy ideas are "very, very not smart," to oversee foreign policy.
But there are some good reasons he might want to put Romney at the State Department. Choosing Romney would:
- Bring a potential rival inside the tent, rather than allowing him to critique the administration from outside.
- Demonstrate his dominance by showing that formerly recalcitrant party insiders accept his leadership and are willing to work under him.
- Please congressional Republicans whose agreement he will need on legislation.
- Provide managerial talent and policy expertise that will be badly needed in the administration.
Importantly, while these factors would do a lot to help Trump, they could actually hurt the insiders who currently surround him.
One of the warnings about a Romney pick - that Romney could lead a "rogue" agency that would be its own independent power center - makes some sense. But whose power are those issuing the warnings worried about being diluted - Trump's, or their own?
To the extent a Romney pick allows Trump to subordinate the Republican apparatus to himself and finally hire the A-list experts he always wanted to respect and submit to him, it would undermine those in Trump's world who hope to supplant the establishment.
But it's not obvious why that should be Trump's own concern.
*Disclosure: In addition to my duties at Business Insider, I am a contributor to MSNBC.