Two Sigma, the $30 billion hedge fund that uses artificial intelligence and advanced technologies to find investment opportunities, asked a bunch of Wall Street analysts what they're worried about. More than 120 researchers responded, estimating the probability of nine different "tail risks."
"Not surprisingly, respondents (60 percent) cited a hard landing in China, defined as a GDP growth of less than 3 percent per year, as a tail risk that warrants concern," the note said.
Here is the key chart from the note:
JPMorgan
It is interesting to note that a hard landing in China is not the most immediate concern. That dubious honor goes to a market-liquidity event, where there is a 20% drop in a particular asset class.
"Survey participants believe a market liquidity event poses the most imminent threat, with respondents assigning an almost 50 percent likelihood to such an occurrence within the next year," the note said.
Here is the chart on the timing of the risks:
JPMorgan