A computer model that picks NFL games is on fire - here are the picks for Week 9

Cork GainesNov 2, 2018, 00:12 IST

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Week 9 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We looked at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's data-journalism site, FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood that a team will win - which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana is off to a strong start this season, correctly picking 74% of the games over the last five weeks - including 11-3 last week - and 70% overall. Elo has nailed 70% over the last five weeks, was 11-3 last week, and is at 63% overall.

Here are the picks for Week 9, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

See A computer model that picks NFL games is on fire - here are the picks for Week 9 >>

"Thursday Night Football"

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) — 49ERS (Elo 62%; Cortana 69%)

Sunday afternoon games — early window

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (-10) — BEARS (Elo 54%; Cortana 58%)
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns — CHIEFS (Elo 84%; Cortana 78%)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3) — DOLPHINS (Elo 62%; Cortana 63%)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) — VIKINGS (Elo 68%; Cortana 67%)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5) — REDSKINS (Elo 55%; Cortana 60%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5) — PANTHERS (Elo 76%; Cortana 67%)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) — RAVENS (Elo 54%; Cortana 55%)

Sunday afternoon games — late window

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1) — BRONCOS (Elo 54%; Cortana 55%)
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 61%; Cortana 61%)
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (PK) — SAINTS (Elo 59%; Cortana 57%)

"Sunday Night Football"

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-5.5) — PATRIOTS (Elo 81%; Cortana 69%)

"Monday Night Football"

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) — COWBOYS (Elo 66%; Cortana 61%)

Now check out this week's power rankings.

NFL POWER RANKINGS: Where all 32 teams stand going into Week 9

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