A computer model that picks NFL games is having another strong season - here are the picks for Week 10

Cork GainesNov 9, 2018, 01:39 IST

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Week 10 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We looked at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's data-journalism site, FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood that a team will win - which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana is off to a strong start this season, correctly picking 72% of the games over the past six weeks and 69% overall. Elo has nailed 69% over the past five weeks and is at 63% overall.

Here are the picks for Week 10, with each team's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

See A computer model that picks NFL games is having another strong season - here are the picks for Week 10 >>

"Thursday Night Football"

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) — STEELERS (Elo 61%, Cortana 57%)

Sunday-afternoon games — early window

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5) — BEARS (Elo 65%, Cortana 69%)
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals — SAINTS (Elo 64%, Cortana 66%)
Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns — FALCONS (Elo 78%, Cortana 63%)
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans — PATRIOTS (Elo 63%, Cortana 72%)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3) — COLTS (Elo 56%, Cortana 63%)
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5) — CHIEFS (Elo 88%, Cortana 84%)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7) — JETS (Elo 63%, Cortana 77%)
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) — BUCS (Elo 54%, Cortana 58%)

Sunday-afternoon games — late window

Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Oakland Raiders — CHARGERS (Elo 76%, Cortana 75%)
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) — PACKERS (Elo 61%, Cortana 74%)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) — RAMS (Elo 69%, Cortana 69%)

"Sunday Night Football"

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) — EAGLES (Elo 74%, Cortana 67%)

"Monday Night Football"

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3) — 49ERS (Elo 67%, Cortana 63%)

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