A Bunch Of Huge NBA Contracts Just Got A Lot Cheaper
The cap is set to jump from $63 million this year to (by our math) $88 million in two years. But the salaries for players who signed long-term contracts in the pre-massive TV deal world will stay the same.
A $10 million salary against a $63 million cap means one thing. A $10 million salary against a $88 million cap means something very different.
There's going to be a recalibration of market values, and those guys who signed before the new TV deal are going to be artificially cheap. Guys who are now "bad contracts" will look a better because they're suddenly a smaller proportion of the cap. Star players who got long-term max contracts in the last two years are going to be underpaid in the future.
Here are the players who just got a lot cheaper. They fall into three main groups.
1. Young stars who signed huge extensions recently.
- John Wall, Washington Wizards (five years, $84 million left) - Wall signed a five-year maximum extension last summer, and it was the subject of a ton of debate at the time. But now he looks like an absolute steal. He'll make $17 million in 2016-17 (the first year of the new TV deal), $18 million in 2017-18, and $19 million in 2018-19. On the open market Wall could get a max contract starting at $26.4 million.
- Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers (six years, $97 million left) - See above. Irving is going to be making between $16 million and $19 million until 2020.
- James Harden, Houston Rockets (four years, $65 million left) - Harden will make $16.7 million in 2016-17 and $17.8 million in 2017-18. With the new salary cap, the Rockets will be able to add a max player starting in 2016.
- Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors (three years, $34 million left) - Curry will make $12 million in 2016-17, which is less than half of what he could be making on the open market. That's insane.
2. Old stars who are in danger of becoming terrible contracts.
- Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks (five years, $124 million left) - Anthony is going to be 34 years old and making $27 million in 2018-19. That was a potential disaster in the making under the old salary cap. But under the new cap ... it's not as bad. When the TV money kicks in, the 35% maximum contract will start at $31 million with $2.3 million annual raises. Melo's deal is still massive, but by the time we get to the latter years, it won't be one of the most expensive deals in the league like it is now.
- Chris Bosh, Miami Heat (five years, $118 million left) - See above.
- Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets (three years, $63 million left) - The general consensus is that the Nets have the worst cap situation in the league, and Williams is a big reason why. He'll be making $22.3 million in 2016-17. Under the new salary cap, they can probably fit two max free agents under the cap with Williams still on the roster.
3. Role players who got silly money this summer.
- Channing Frye, Orlando Magic (four years, $32 million left) - Frye has a goofy contract because it actually de-escalates. He makes $8.6 million this year but only $7.4 million by the time the deal is over in 2017-18. When he signed the deal this summer people scratched their heads, but $8 million might be the going rate for a decent role player with the new cap.
- Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics (four years, $32 million left) - The best case for Bradley is that he's the evolutionary Tony Allen - a defense-first wing who makes around $5 million per year. Giving him $8 million for four years seemed like an overpay this summer, but not now.
- Jose Calderon, New York Knicks (three years, $22 million left) - The Knicks could have gone into the summer of 2016-17 with only Carmelo Anthony on the books and had all sorts of flexibility in free agency. Instead they acquired a point guard who's making $7 million in 2016-17. A starting point guard at $7 million suddenly looks cheap.
This is something of a market inefficiency. Teams that locked in their players long-term under the old salary cap are going to have an advantage when the new money kicks in.