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A brief history of how Trump came up with the false claim that Hurricane Dorian could hit Alabama
A brief history of how Trump came up with the false claim that Hurricane Dorian could hit Alabama
Kat Tenbarge,Lauren FriasSep 7, 2019, 20:08 IST
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President Donald J. Trump, joined by Vice President Mike Pence, receives a briefing update on Hurricane Dorian as it approaches the U.S. mainland Thursday, Aug. 29, 2019, in the Oval Office of the White House.Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead
Trump has spent the last several days doubling down on his claim that Hurricane Dorian could strike parts of Alabama, despite the state no longer being in the hurricane's path at the time he made the claim.
The president's confusion stemmed from earlier forecasts that showed a slight probability of tropical-storm-force winds affecting Alabama, but Trump has since used his misstatement and the reporting on it to boost his narrative that news media is unfairly attacking him.
The National Hurricane Center corrected the president, who has since used video manipulation and outdated maps marked with Sharpie to support his false claim, within 20 minutes of his initial incorrect tweet.
What started out as a clear misunderstanding on President Donald Trump's part has morphed into him attacking the media for reporting on his false claim. In the process of using his Twitter account to retweet official Hurricane Dorian forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, Trump incorrectly stated on Sunday that the storm could hit Alabama.
Despite being corrected within 20 minutes by the National Weather Service, Trump went on to lash out repeatedly against journalists who reported on his false claim, defending himself via outdated maps, video manipulation, and even with a six-day-old map that he had been altered with a Sharpie marker.
Here's how Trump's confusion over Alabama and Hurricane Dorian's trajectory originated, and a timeline of what has happened since, as he continues to double down on his misstatement and attack the news media.
On August 30, the NHC tweeted out a forecast of Hurricane Dorian's trajectory toward the US, based on information and data available at that time. The possible path showed the storm making landfall over Florida, with the potential affected area reaching into Georgia and North Carolina.
Even then, the map did not show Hurricane Dorian affecting Alabama. Per photos uploaded to the White House Flickr account, this map was used in an early briefing in the Oval Office.
Later, Trump would use other maps that were not issued by the NHC to defend his claim that the hurricane could have hit Alabama.
Forecasts display estimated paths of weather patterns, so there is always a degree of uncertainty leading up to a storm's approach – but there was never a statistically significant chance that Dorian would actually "hit" Alabama, as the president would go on to tweet.
Early Saturday, by 8 AM EDT, the NHC's official predicted trajectory for Hurricane Dorian shifted dramatically, and it no longer showed the storm making landfall in Florida. Rather, the entire forecast shifted north, steering clear of Alabama even more than earlier forecasts.
Here are the 5 AM EDT Saturday, August 31 Key Messages for Hurricane #Dorian. A prolonged period of storm surge and hurricane-force winds are likely over portions of the northwestern Bahamas. Visit https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB for more info. pic.twitter.com/aVMKOqAvfn
8/31 8 AM EDT: There's been a notable change overnight to the forecast of #Dorian after Tuesday. It should be stressed that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty pic.twitter.com/GSds0bKunM
On Sunday, Trump first tweeted his claim that "In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated."
Within 20 minutes, the National Weather Service's Birmingham Twitter account refuted the claim, writing "Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian."
After reported pressure from the Trump administration to get officials to back up the president, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration later defended the president, noting that the NWS Birmingham tweet "spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time."
Off Twitter, the president repeated his false claim that Alabama could be hit, both to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House and at a meeting with officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!
Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east. #alwx
On Monday, Trump retweeted a forecast of tropical-storm-force winds from the NHC that showed the southeastern corner of Alabama in range for a 5 to 10 percent chance of receiving sustained (39+ mph) winds over the following 5-day period.
In response to ABC White House correspondent Jon Karl pointing out that Trump had "misstated the storm's possible trajectory," the president tweeted that it "WAS true" that Alabama "could possibly come into play." In a reply to his own tweet, Trump wrote "under certain original scenarios, it was in fact correct that Alabama could have received some 'hurt.'"
Tropical-storm-force winds are mostly likely to start in Georgia early on Wednesday, in South Carolina late Wednesday, and in North Carolina early Thursday. Follow the latest #Dorian forecast at https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gBpic.twitter.com/WjJzaNFncj
Such a phony hurricane report by lightweight reporter @jonkarl of @ABCWorldNews. I suggested yesterday at FEMA that, along with Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, even Alabama could possibly come into play, which WAS true. They made a big deal about this...
On Tuesday, the president retweeted updated Hurricane Dorian forecasts from the NHC, but did not tweet about Alabama.
New Watches and Warnings Issued Along the Southeastern United States Coast. Rain and Wind Threat also Increasing For Portions of Virginia Coast and Southern Chesapeake Bay. Here are the 5 PM Tuesday Key Messages for #Dorian. For More Info See: https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFbpic.twitter.com/yBpORo5H9O
On Wednesday, his Alabama argument returned with full force. The president tweeted an "ensemble" of a spaghetti plot created by the South Florida Water Management District. He tweeted that it showed "models" of where the hurricane would go, but it actually aggregates different statistical, atmospheric, and historic models that do not necessarily indicate a storm's path.
In addition to Trump's incorrect interpretation, the map did not stem from the NHC, and was not intended to supersede the weather maps intended for political and public use. There is a warning label at the bottom that says to disregard the plot if it causes confusion. It was also dated August 28, several days before the forecast changed.
Meanwhile, during a briefing at the White House on Wednesday, Trump produced a map of an earlier Dorian trajectory that a photo on his administration's Flickr page showed had been presented to the president during an August 29 briefing.
In the initial photos, the map displayed an earlier forecast, but still not one that included Alabama in Dorian's path. In the Wednesday briefing, Trump was photographed with the map, which had been altered via a Sharpie marker to include Alabama in the outdated forecast. A White House spokesperson confirmed on Twitter that a Sharpie marker was used.
By Wednesday, the altered map Trump displayed was six days out of date. Not only was it misinformation, but the president and his administration may have broken federal law in doing so, because it is illegal to knowingly publish counterfeit weather forecasts.
This was the originally projected path of the Hurricane in its early stages. As you can see, almost all models predicted it to go through Florida also hitting Georgia and Alabama. I accept the Fake News apologies! pic.twitter.com/0uCT0Qvyo6
Absolutely right @realDonaldTrump! Watching the media go ballistic over a black sharpie mark on a map would be hilarious if it weren’t so sad. The real news that matters here is a deadly hurricane continues up the coast and tens millions of Americans could be greatly impacted. https://t.co/SceSOeuyO5
On Thursday, the president retweeted his spaghetti plot tweet after reiterating that "In the early days of the hurricane, when it was predicted that Dorian would go through Miami or West Palm Beach, even before it reached the Bahamas, certain models strongly suggested that Alabama & Georgia would be hit as it made its way through Florida & to the Gulf."
He tweeted again later to assert that "Alabama was going to be hit or grazed," then tweeted tropical-storm-force-winds projections from August 29 and 30 to show "Alabama was originally projected to be hit."
Trump then quote-tweeted an August 30 tweet from the Alabama National Guard that said "#HurricaneDorian is projected to reach southern Alabama by the early part of the week. We are watching closely and #ready to act. Are you?"
The president wrote "I was with you all the way Alabama. The Fake News Media was not!"
In the early days of the hurricane, when it was predicted that Dorian would go through Miami or West Palm Beach, even before it reached the Bahamas, certain models strongly suggested that Alabama & Georgia would be hit as it made its way through Florida & to the Gulf....
Alabama was going to be hit or grazed, and then Hurricane Dorian took a different path (up along the East Coast). The Fake News knows this very well. That’s why they’re the Fake News!
Trump resumed his attack on "The Fake News Media" on Friday, suggesting that reporters had hoped he made a mistake, which he reiterated that he didn't – although, of course, he did.
The president by this point began using his mishap and the reporting on it to accentuate his narrative that US news media unfairly targets him. In reality, he failed to incorporate updated information into his public service announcements.
In an erratic twist, he then tweeted a video compiled from a CNN report, footage of a car crash, and footage from one of his TV appearances.
The video shows a CNN forecast of Dorian's path from before Saturday, when Alabama was still at risk of, in Trump's words, being "grazed or hit." The video stops and repeats the CNN soundbite of the word "Alabama" several times before showing a clip of Trump looking triumphant, and a car crashing and burning with the CNN logo superimposed over it.
That was the latest input from the president concerning his misstatement.
The Fake News Media was fixated on the fact that I properly said, at the beginnings of Hurricane Dorian, that in addition to Florida & other states, Alabama may also be grazed or hit. They went Crazy, hoping against hope that I made a mistake (which I didn’t). Check out maps.....
