Each January our team at Activate gets together to decide on the topics that we’ll spend the next 10 months researching and analyzing... all leading to today’s presentation.
Our scoring criteria: 1. Consumer behavior change, 2. Technology shift, 3. Impact next year
We reviewed about 30 topics - everything from digital assistants to scooters to weed tech to tech unicorns.
Let’s start with eCommerce because it’s on everyone’s minds after yesterday’s Amazon announcement — which the Journal scooped.
We believe the growth in eCommerce is just actually beginning — people say the battle for eCommerce is already over but it’s not even close.
eCommerce today is a $3T global business.
eCommerce will double in the next four years to 6T. This will also be the inflection year…
When we look globally at the top eCommerce companies…
The top 20 ecommerce companies are 70 percent of total goods sold…
Most of these companies aren’t really retailers…
These companies are actually operating marketplaces — connecting millions of buyers and sellers
When we look at the U.S.
There are billions of dollars up for grabs in these battleground categories…
It’s not only the biggest players that are going to be competing in eCommerce…
A new breed of companies are direct-to-consumer brands…
eCommerce growth doesn’t mean everything is going to Digital…
In fact, we’re going to see more online companies opening up physical stores.
The most interesting example of this is Amazon Go…
Amazon and MobiMart are already pursuing the grab-and-go model.
One of the things that enables grab-and-go is smart camera technology.
I was initially skeptical about this but our team couldn’t be more excited about smart cameras. Why are we interested?…
Why now?…
Because cameras are not just smart — they’re becoming terrifyingly smart.
We think the smart camera era begins in 2019…
This media veteran's 41-slide presentation shows the most important tech and media trends you need to know about in 2019
Our research shows that the people most concerned about privacy are also the most likely to own a smart camera.
And you don’t just buy one camera…
In addition to your home, you will have cameras in your cars and devices. And all of these cameras will be networked together…
Within four years, we expect that more than 50% of the U.S. population…
We predict that 58% of cars and 53% of homes will have cameras. The average American will have 12 cameras across all of their devices.
Another area that I was initially skeptical about was digital consumer finance…
People have been talking about this for a long time but we’re convinced that the moment is now…
Two things convinced us — one is the success of new tech experiences…
These services are catching on, especially among millennial and gen Z consumers…
The other thing that turned us from skeptics to believers was the success in Europe.
There are at least three digital-first banks, such as Revolut (already coming to U.S.)…
These players have already acquired millions of consumers…
The target consumers include HENRYs, millennials and those with low savings or no credit.
We’ve talked about how people are going to save money…
Sports betting will be one of the most explosive growth areas in tech and media.
We believe that this will be highly sophisticated and enabled by real-time data.
Bringing betting online will radically transform the experience — hundred of bets, all enabled by real-time data.
Now let me give you a sense of what this will look like…
Everything from statistics to real-time odds will be incorporated into the viewing experience.
And the people who are most interested in this are not the old guys at the race track…
In fact, the most receptive customer segments are millennials and gen z.
So who is going to benefit from this?
Revenue in sports betting will accrue to more than just the betting providers.
We expect all of these players to take advantage of the tremendous growth in the overall amount wagered.
By 2022, total amount wagered in sports betting will reach around $120B per year.
And then when we look at the revenues that will accrue to tech and media companies…
By 2022, combined revenues for betting providers and related players (leagues, teams) will reach $25B a year (more interest, not just people moving from illegal betting).
And it’s not just sports games that will be revolutionized…
The new age of video gaming is going to accelerate in 2019.
We forecast that there will be significant growth in video gaming over the next few years.
By 2022, video gaming revenues will reach over $200B.
But gaming right now is a set of very different experiences.
Our research shows that right now, console gamers spend almost 2.5 hours a day playing, compared to less than an hour for mobile.
So let’s take a look at each of these experiences.
Console is defined by immersive life-like games that require millions of dollars, and years to develop (Red Dead Redemption 2 — grossed $750M opening weekend).
But these games require expensive hardware and a lot of time.
On mobile, you can play a simple, free game for a few minutes at a time, and put it back in your pocket.
PC walks the line the between the two…
Overwatch - PC gaming can be premium or free-to-play, but its true differentiator is community and customization. This is why PC is the perfect platform for eSports.
So we have three very different gaming experiences, but they aren’t going to stay separate for long.
Games such as Fortnite are a sign of the new gaming experience: premium titles that are free-to-play and highly customizable, no matter what device you’re using.
So we’re seeing three different experiences come together here.
In this experience, we have the best parts of console, mobile and PC coming together. Titles will be premium, free-to-play, multiplayer-driven, and in the cloud (no need for expensive consoles)
So what will all this mean for tech and media?
What does this all mean?
- eCommerce
- Smart Cameras
- Digital consumer finance
- Sports Betting
- Video Gaming
- (full report available on wsj.com)
