Maharashtra, Haryana Assembly Polls: Political Breakups Leave Everyone Guessing

In the first Assembly election after the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, Maharashtra and Haryana go for polls on October 15. The stakes are high for all the political parties involved; BJP, Congress, NCP, Shiv Sena, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). However, these elections are particularly important for the BJP, which had suffered successive defeats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar by-polls. The by-polls defeat came in as a blow for the party that stormed to power, at the Centre, single-handedly only a couple of months back.

Will BJP be able to regain its lost glory in these elections? Or would other local parties steal the show? Only time would tell. We tried to take a dig.

These elections would be the first major test for the five-month old Narendra Modi-led BJP government at the Centre. Following a bitter divorce with Shiv Sena, its oldest ally, the BJP would be determined to prove that it’s the senior partner in Maharashtra. If it manages to win about 90 seats, it would justify its push for equal share in seats with Shiv Sena. If this happens, then it would be interesting to see if Shiv Sena, once a very dominant force in the state, would be ready to play second fiddle to the ex-alliance partner, BJP.

The current state of affairs in Haryana also seems interesting. On one hand, the corruption allegations (like Robert Vadra-DLF deal) and anti-incumbency against the Bhupinder Singh Hooda-led Congress government are giving the ruling party the pre-poll jitters. On the other hand, it is increasing BJP’s chances of coming to power in Haryana; after all, the party won seven out of 10 Lok Sabha seats.

After suffering a humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, Congress is eager to salvage its pride. And these elections will prove to be their litmus test. Although the break-up between the BJP and Shiv Sena has left the Maharashtra contest wide open, the Congress is on a sticky wicket due to anti-incumbency and various scams. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), former ally of the Congress, will be looking to prove that it has a stronger foothold in the state than the Congress.

Shiv Sena, fighting the first election after its founder Bal Thackeray’s demise, will encash on the sympathy factor to salvage its pride and justify its persistence for more seats by winning more seats than the BJP.

In Haryana, Om Prakash Chautala of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), who was granted bail on medical grounds, re-energised the party’s election campaign by taking undue advantage of his bail and campaigned for the party. His rallies drew massive crowds as Jats of Haryana are die-hard supporters of the Chautala family. Also, INLD is likely to get some sympathy votes due to Chautala’s imprisonment. However, one can’t be sure if the crowd and sympathy would translate into votes.

As of now, the Assembly elections present an interesting political slugfest that even political pundits and psephologists are finding it difficult to reckon which way the political wind would blow.