The most unlikely of the possible scenarios following Khamenei's death is the IRGC seizing power.
During Khamenei's tenure, the IRGC has evolved into an extremely powerful organization with considerable internal political sway.
Khamenei has also militarized the clerical establishment to the detriment of traditional religious leaders, leading to a convergence of the "judiciary, the IRGC, and the intelligence agencies," according to the Washington Institute.
"The most radical scenario is abolishing the institution and direct IRGC seizure of power which I don't think will happen," Alfoneh told BI. "The IRGC is more likely to support Mohammad Yazdi, Shahroudi, or Larijani in order to avoid Rafsanjani or Hassan Khomeini."