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Chinese Exports Surge 14.1% CRUSHING Expectations

Mamta Badkar   

Chinese Exports Surge 14.1% CRUSHING Expectations
Stock Market1 min read

Chinese exports surged 14.1 percent year-over-year (YoY) in December, beating expectations for a 5 percent rise (via Michael McDonough).

Meanwhile, imports increased six percent YoY, ahead of expectations of a 3.5 percent rise.

Trade balance widened to $31.6 billion, more than consensus of $20 billion.

A breakdown by region showed that exports to the U.S. grew 9.6 percent YoY in December, from -2.6 percent in November. Exports to the EU rose 1.9 percent, after contracting 18 percent in November. Exports to Japan however slumped 6.9 percent.

*Bank of America's Ting Lu, named the third most accurate forecaster on the Chinese economy by Bloomberg, wrote in a note that both imports and exports have "bottomed out from their lows in mid-2012" Weakness in the U.S., Europe and Japan will continue to weigh on growth in these areas.

Hard landing watchers pay particular attention to the import data because it has a domestic demand component and offers insight on domestic demand growth as China attempts to rebalance its economy.

Moreover, China is often criticized for doctoring its data, but its trade data is widely considered to be one of the most reliable economic indicators.

This follows on some disappointing news about loans in December, which came in at 454.3 billion yuan, below estimates of 550 billion yuan.

The Shanghai Composite is now up 0.61 percent.

Original

At 9 p.m. ET China will release its December trade data.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg are looking for for imports to rise 3.5 percent year-over-year (YoY), exports to rise 5 percent YoY, and the trade balance to widen to $20 billion. This data would offer insight into whether China's economy really is picking up.

Bloomberg BRIEF economist Michael McDonough tweeted this chart ahead of the data that gives us insight into its largest trading partners:

*Note: Piece was updated at 11:15 p.m. to include comments from Ting Lu and a breakdown of export by region.

SEE ALSO: SocGen Offers A Surprising Forecast For Gold Under A Chinese Hard Landing Scenario >

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