Some of the scenarios are not pretty:
1. Dems decide to make their stand here and refuse to pass anything that is short term or tied to the requirement for the Senate to pass a budget. If this happens, things get ugly fast. You get the same war all over again and Republicans will likely feel more righteous about their resistance given the Dems unwillingness to take on what (the GOP sees as) very moderate reforms.
2. Dems agree to pass a budget and the three month extension kick the
3. We get a short term, but without the budget reform or the Senate never actually passes a budget. CR becomes extra contentious, approps bills turn into the same type of go around as HR 1 and then the debt ceiling arrives with a unified, very angry right wing of the party. Back to things getting ugly, only worse.
He concludes:
At the end of the day, I can never conceive of an actual default. But an eleventh hour deal (who knows, maybe up to and including a deal at 9:29 on the morning the debt payment is due) is not hard to imagine under options 1 and 3 above.
For more on the GOP's offer, and analysts' reaction, see here >