From 2009 to 2050, the number of countries involved in internal armed conflicts will decrease by more than 50%, according to a report from International Studies Quarterly.
The prediction applies to internal armed conflicts pitting governments against organized opposition groups, which are deadlier and longer-lasting than other conflicts, the report's co-author University of Oslo Political Science Professor Håvard Hegre told Time.
The study predicted that, in 2050, 7% of countries will be embroiled in internal armed conflicts, down from 15% in 2009. Hegre's prediction is based on a statistical model that considered factors like education, infant mortality, past conflicts, oil, ethnicities, and youth population.
In another report, Hegre considered the impact of climate change on future civil wars. He concluded that its "adverse effects are still unlikely to be sufficiently strong to dramatically change the projected global trends in conflict."
Reasons for the decline of violence include more education and the high cost of war.
"It has become too expensive to kill people,"Hegre told Apollon. "Modern society is dependent on economic development. It is too expensive to use violence to destroy this network."
Warfare associated with the Arab Spring has led Hegre to raise his prediction of the percentage of countries expected to be involved in internal armed conflict in 2050, from 5% to 7%, according to Apollon.
India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Tanzania will be at the greatest risk of armed conflict in 2050.
Matt Ridley, author of "The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves," also believes there will be a future decline in war. As he told the World Future Society:
I think it very unlikely that war will go extinct. Human nature will see to that. It's true, however, that the 2000s were the decade with the lowest number of war deaths since 1945, (according to Steven Pinker). I do expect the decline of violence and war to continue. War will be rare but not absent.