REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
A model presents a creation by German designer Karl Lagerfeld at Paris Fashion Week
The world braces for sanctions on Russia. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have cooled, but there's talk of sanctions after the Russian incursion into the Ukrainian region of Crimea. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a conference in Paris attended by the five permanent members of the U.N. security council.
China sets a growth target. The government targeted GDP growth of 7.5% and CPI at 3.5%, in line with expectations. The difficulty is that by setting a such a high goal, China isn't leaving much room to reform the economy, as CNBC's Deirdre Wang Morris pointed out.
Growth in the eurozone picks up. The latest services and composite PMI data out of Europe indicates a general drift higher for its economies. At 56.4, German PMI hit a 33-month high and at 53.4, Italian PMI reached a 34-month high. The French economy proved to be the drag, coming in at 47.9 (anything below 50 signals contraction).
It's a busy day of economic data, starting with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15 a.m. ET. Economists expect private payrolls increased by 158,000 in February. "Though ADP employment rarely forecasts the BLS jobs number with precision, it is nevertheless statistically superior to any of the other high frequency payroll predictors such as jobless claims or ISM data," wrote Credit Suisse economists. "Aside from what it means for payrolls, we also consider it an important labor market gauge in its own right given its large sample size. Interestingly, ADP has held up well in recent months even as the BLS payroll data have slowed (three month averages:230K ADP vs 168K BLS private)."
Then at 10:00 a.m., ISM Non-Manufacturing will be released. Economists are expecting ISM services fell to 53.5 in February from 54.0 in January. "The evidence from February's regional services sector surveys was mixed, however, with the Richmond Fed index edging higher and the Dallas Fed dipping," Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth and Paul Dales wrote clients. "Nonetheless, they both remain at a fairly low level. Otherwise, we suspect that the harsh weather played some role in dampening overall conditions."
The Fed will publish its monthly Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. Credit Suisse economists highlight: "The March 5 Beige Book may feature the return of the 'modest-to-moderate' growth language that was absent in January but used in every previous report back to last spring. After painting a more upbeat picture of the US economy in its January Beige Book, the Fed in next week's report may describe more sluggish activity. Of interest to the market will be the extent to which disruptive weather is cited by the Fed's business contacts."
Introducing 5 Questions, a new feature where we interview top strategists and economics about their views on the market. Today's interview is with David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff and the author of the "Breakfast with Dave" daily letter.
BUSINESS INSIDER: To what extent do you think poor weather has impacted this winter's economic data?
DAVID ROSENBERG: I would say that the slowing is 50% weather and 50% fundamental with respect to inventory adjustment/savings rate and housing (tight mortgage lending).
BI: What's the big story that nobody is talking about right now?
DR: That energy prices are on a discernible upward path.
BI: Are you optimistic about Janet Yellen as Fed chair?
DR: I'm optimistic that her policies will in the end generate far more inflation than is generally acknowledged.
BI: The stock market is roaring back to all time highs. Do issues in EM not have as big an impact on U.S. markets as people argued a few weeks ago?
DR: EM has a marginal impact at best… look at the 1997-98 Asian crisis: GDP growth averaged 4%, the unemployment rate went from 5% to 4.5% and the S&P 500 ran up 20%… only became an issue towards the end of the crisis when it became a domestic financial event with the turmoil surrounding LTCM.
BI: What's something you'll be watching this week and next?
DR: The February employment report. Whether the S&P 500 can break back above the mid-January highs on a closing basis. Beyond that, the March-April data will tell the tale as to just how much the latest poor data flow was a weather report.
And now back to 10 Things...
Global markets take it easy. After an up-and-down week spurred by the situation in Ukraine, markets were calm in overnight trading. Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.20% and Korea's KOSPI grew 0.88%. European markets were slightly lower and U.S. futures were pointing south.
Smith & Wesson crushes earnings. The gunmaker announced third quarter net sales of $145.9 million, up 7% from the year-previous quarter. Handgun sales jumped 29.9% year over year. The stock is up 10% in after hours trading.
China has its first major corporate debt default. Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Company announced that it cannot pay interests to the tune of 89.8 million yuan ($14.6 million) on its 11 Chaori bond due on March 7. "Defaults of some debt products are not on a similar scale to a collapse of a major financial institution. As we think corporate bonds and incoming trust loan defaults will not lead to a credit crunch, and we are reasonably confident with our 7.6% GDP growth forecast for this year," according to Bank of America's Ting Lu. The news has, however, caused corporate bonds to fall, and is "a negative for riskier debt products," writes Ting.
Japan eyes Bitcoin regulation. After the spectacular failure and bankruptcy of MtGox - the Tokyo-based Bitcoin exchange - Japanese authorities will clarify their view on the cryptocurrency, the WSJ's Takashi Mochizuki and Mitsuru Obe report. "People familiar with a draft being prepared for a cabinet meeting Friday say the government will reaffirm that Japan doesn't consider bitcoin a currency, the basis for the argument by Japan's banking watchdog, the Financial Services Agency, that bitcoin shouldn't be subject to its oversight," they report. But the draft does reportedly say Bitcoin would be subject to a tax in Japan.
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at BBH, sums up the situation in Europe today:
The euro is a dog. Instead of deriving support from the easing of tensions in Ukraine/Crimea and the best euro zone service PMI since June 2011, as well as a surge in January retail sales (1.6%, reversing the revised 1.3% decline in December), the euro has been sold to new lows for the week and nearing the low seen before last week's February inflation report (~$1.3695). With the recent string of data, most observers recognize that a dramatic move by the ECB tomorrow, such as QE or a negative deposit rate is unlikely. The focus now is on two possible actions: A small repo rate cut and/or formally decision to cease sterilizing the SMP bond purchases. We regard the former as token and symbolic. On the latter, we may have been wrong about, not appreciating that the Bundesbank had apparently softened their opposition. A note later today will help outline our views and market implications.