10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

It's jobs day in America. The monthly report will come out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists estimate that U.S. companies added 149,000 to nonfarm payrolls in February, up from the prior print of 113,000, and that the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 6.6%. "The market appears to be set up for a weak number, and a disappointing report will be taken with a grain of salt," said TD Securities' Millan Mulraine. "Hiring in February looks unlikely to have snapped the recent slowdown," said Wells Fargo's John Silvia. "Another winter storm hit the Southeast and Northeast during the survey week, which is likely to have curtailed hiring over the period."

Will the real Satoshi Nakamoto please stand up? Yesterday, Newsweek dropped a bombshell report outing Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, the prominent digital crypto-currency. According to Newsweek's Leah McGrath Goodman, Satoshi Nakamoto is 64-year-old Japanese American man living outside Los Angeles. His name is indeed Satoshi Nakamoto, once thought to be a pseudonym. Later in the afternoon, Nakomoto emerged from his house - which was surrounded by reporters - to have lunch with a journalist from the AP. The AP's story conflicted Goodman's account. Nakamoto had nothing to do with Bitcoin and had never even heard of it before his son was contacted by Newsweek three weeks ago, he told the AP. Newsweek stood by it story. Everyone is still confused.

Bill Gross vs. Mohamed El-Erian. Things got feistier between the two former PIMCO colleagues - Gross still heads the bond fund while El-Erian just had a high-profile exit - after Gross told Reuters that El-Erian is trying to "undermine" him in the press. Gross said that El-Erian "wrote" a damning account in the Wall Street Journal himself. And when Reuters pushed back on that assertion, Gross accused the news organization of also favoring El-Erian. Gross also suggested that he had been monitoring El-Erian's phone calls.

Putin brushes off the west. The Russian president spoke with President Obama over the Russian incursion into Crimea. He said that "Russia cannot ignore calls for help and it acts accordingly, in full compliance with international law." Also, Russian parliament will support the region's bid to join Russia, the speaker said.

We'll get trade balance data at 8:30 a.m. Economists think the trade deficit widened to $38.5 billion in January. "We anticipate a widening of the trade deficit in January due to a pickup in imports," wrote Citi's Peter D'Antonio. "January is a month when imports typically decline, yet customs duties increased in the month, suggesting a sizable rise in the seasonally adjusted figure. Our forecast actually includes a pullback in oil imports reflecting a decline in price."

At 3:00 p.m., consumer credit will be released. Economists predict consumer credit balances expanded by $14 billion in January. "After rising by $18.8bn in December, we forecast that total US consumer credit outstanding rose by $13.0bn in January," wrote Barclays' economists. "As has been the case in the past few years, this would largely reflect steady growth in the nonrevolving component, specifically in federal student loans; over the course of 2013, nonrevolving credit rose by over $165bn, while revolving credit increased only $16bn."

Introducing "5 Questions," a new feature where we interview top strategists and economists for their views on the market. Today's interview is with Gary Shilling, famed market timer.

BUSINESS INSIDER: To what extent has the weather impacted the winter economic data?

GARY SHILLING: Like American Olympic athletes at Sochi who blamed the slush for their poor performance, retailers and everyone else always faults the weather for their shortfalls. In January, only 262,000 people reported that they couldn't get to work because of the weather but the average over the 2003-2013 years is much higher, 330,000. And bad weather in January should have not only kept shoppers at home but also given them plenty of time for online buying. Yet non-store sales--largely online purchases--actually fell 0.6% that month in contrast to earlier double-digit year-over-year gains. Do they ever credit good weather for robust sales?

BI: What's the big story that nobody is talking about right now?

GS: A shock that would distort investor euphoria and collapse stocks. Candidates include a financial crisis among Chinese shadow banks, a Middle East blowup that spikes oil prices, a dust-up between Russia and the West over Ukraine and contagion resulting from faltering emerging markets.

BI: Are you optimistic about Janet Yellen as Fed chair?

GS: Yellen is competent, but she was part of the FOMC that, by its own admission, was "behind the curve" in 2008 and didn't foresee that the collapse in subprime mortgages, which commenced in Feb. 2007, would precipitate runs on Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.

BI: The stock market is roaring back to all time highs. Do issues in EM not have as big an impact on U.S. markets as people argued a few weeks ago?

GS: Except for the hot money that's gotten burned, the emerging market crises don't have a big global impact--unless they prove contagious.

BI: What's something you'll be watching this week and next?

GS: Watch for persistent weak U.S. economic numbers after the ice breaks and the excuse of bad weather fades.

And now back to 10 Things...

Global markets were mixed in overnight trading. Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.92% and Korea's KOSPI fell 0.05%. European markets were broadly lower, with Germany the most off the mark. U.S. futures were roughly flat.

German manufacturing lights up. Industrial orders in the country jumped 1.2% in January, double the forecast from economists. "Industrial orders started the new year well, despite a small volume of big-ticket orders... The strongest momentum is coming from abroad, from both within and outside the euro zone. Domestic demand is also developing positively, at a slightly more modest pace," the economy ministry said in a statement.

Finra strips red flags on its brokers. A new WSJ report from Jean Eaglesham and Rob Barry shows that the Wall Street regulator "routinely" removes red flags on brokers from its database. Investors can look up brokers on a Finra database, but according to the Public Investors Arbitration Bar Association, the regulator was "scrubbing potential black marks from the information it provided to investors," the Journal reports.

China sees its first domestic corporate bond default. Solar-equipment maker Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Company did not meet interest payments on a bond, becoming the first Chinese company to default on a bond traded in the mainland, the WSJ reports. "Defaults of some debt products are not on a similar scale to a collapse of a major financial institution," Patrick Chovanec at Silvercrest Asset Management told Business Insider in January. "As we think corporate bonds and incoming trust loan defaults will not lead to a credit crunch, and we are reasonably confident with our 7.6% GDP growth forecast for this year."

Guggenheim's Chris Krueger sums up the situation in Russia and Crimea:

The Sanctions Bill is non-binding (carries no weight of law), though it does carry maximum messaging and symbolism weight. The Obama Administration also announced visa bans for a handful of Russian and Ukrainian officials and that the Crimean Referendum vote (formally secede from Ukraine and join Russian Federation - we strongly believe that it will pass) in nine days was unlawful without the approval of the interim government in Kiev. Administration officials wouldn't say how many individuals are included in the visa restrictions and wouldn't release their names, but said they would be notified (no specifics on the notification process). They also said the Administration could/would add additional names to this seemingly phantom list if the crisis continues - in effect setting the stage for the next round of sanctions (perhaps asset freezes). The danger is not the actual bills that Congress is passing (none of them have any real teeth), but that it ratchets up further pressure and all but invites a response from the Russian parliament. We continue to believe that we are witnessing a massive shift in geopolitics and a rekindling of a Cold War-esque competition between the West and Russia that will later this year (FY15 begins October 1) justify halting the planned drawdown of the U.S. military and a push for greater U.S. defense spending.