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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes slipped Thursday as traders focused on remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</li><li>Powell said the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and reiterated the strength of the US economy.</li></ul>Indexes ended lower on Thursday, with the election rally fizzling out as traders digested remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assessed the latest inflation data. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell more than 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 200 points. The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, remained nearly flat at 4.447%, hovering close to its highest level since July.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,949.17, down 0.6% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,750.86, down 0.47% (-207.33 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,107.65, down 0.64%</li></ul>The slide comes after Powell signaled the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates while the US economy remains on solid footing. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said during prepared remarks at an event in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."Powell added the US has had the best domestic growth of any major economy, and emphasized the strength of the labor market. He said the October jobs report's slowing job growth was largely due to storm-related damage.Powell's comments come as investors seek hints of the Fed's intended easing path after a 25 basis point cut last week. Trump's election win has sparked worries that inflation could rise again under his proposals for broad tariffs and mass deportations, which could cause the Fed to pause rate hikes, economists say.Traders expect the central bank to cut another 25 basis points at its December meeting before pausing in January, according to the CME <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">FedWatch tool</a>.Powell's comments also follow the latest inflation reading which shows wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The data was in line with expectations but showed inflation remains somewhat sticky, with a year-over-year increase of 2.4%.The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in the month and 3.1% year-over-year.Meanwhile, jobless claims data on Thursday, showed weekly claims dropped to their lowest since May, falling to 217,000 last week. That marks a 4,000 decline from the week prior.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Investors are underestimating how deep <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-2025-trump-tariff-inflation-growth-2024-11">rate cuts will be in 2025</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/electric-vehicle-stocks-trump-end-ev-tax-credit-tesla-rivian-2024-11?_gl=1*1794use*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjM3LjIyLjAuMA..">EV makers slid</a> on report Trump wants to scrap the EV tax credit.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/disney-stock-price-3q-earnings-streaming-profit-guidance-cruise-parks-2024-11?_gl=1*6r1dtf*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjUxLjguMC4w">Disney stock surged</a> as rare three-year forecast sees strong profit growth ahead.</li><li>China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-supply-crude-prices-us-production-china-opec-2024-11?_gl=1*1he4945*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjcwLjYwLjAuMA..">surplus</a> of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.3% to $68.63 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.3% to $72.48 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose fell 0.5% to $2,572 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury was nearly flat at 4.447%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was down 1.4% to $87,531. </li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes fall as Powell says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates

Mumbai: Indian stock markets rallied on Monday after the <keyword id="20032950" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-led-government" source="keywords">BJP-led government</keyword> secured a majority in the latest state elections in Maharashtra. The <keyword id="20641216" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nifty-50" source="keywords">Nifty 50</keyword> index gained more than 1.45 per cent or 346.30 points to open at 24,253.55 points, while the BSE <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> index surged 1,076 points or 1.36 percent to open at 80,193.47 points. Experts noted that the election results have an impact on the markets today, and if past trends are followed, the markets may witness some rally amid the return of the BJP in the Maharashtra state elections. <keyword id="20161891" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ajay-Bagga" source="keywords">Ajay Bagga</keyword> Banking and Market Expert stated that "The just concluded elections in Maharashtra, the results of which were declared on November 23rd, will have a positive immediate impact on the stock markets. The landslide win for the BJP lead coalition in the Maharashtra state elections could lead to a short-term boost to the Indian stock markets which have been in a declining mode" He further added "Investors will interpret this mandate as favourable for the capex and infrastructure push that is ongoing in Maharashtra. The beneficiary sectors of this election are industrials, infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate and financials". In the sectoral indices on the National Stock Exchange, <keyword id="20065014" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-Realty" source="keywords">Nifty Realty</keyword> and <keyword id="19941314" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-PSU-Bank" source="keywords">Nifty PSU Bank</keyword> rallied with a surge of more than 2 percent, while other major indices also gained more than 1.5 per cent, including Nifty Metal, Nifty Media, and Nifty Oil &amp; Gas. In the Nifty 50 list, 49 stocks gained during the opening session, while only one stock declined. Shri Finance opened as the top gainer in the Nifty 50. The shares of the AdGroup also surged around 2 percent at the time of filing this report. <keyword id="19967296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Green" source="keywords">Adani Green</keyword> also climbed around 4 percent. "We are most likely to break the falling 20-day average that lies at 24,030, which will be the first time that'd happen since the record high of 27th September. Seasonality trends between now and the end of the year have been historically positive, with the Nifty rising 80% of the time during this period with an average return of over 4 per cent" Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research, Axis Securities. In other Asian markets, Japan and South Korea indices rallied. The Nikkei 225 index surged more than 1.5 percent, South Korea's Kospi also rose by 1.5 percent, Taiwan's Weighted Index was up by 0.48 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down marginally by 0.14 percent at the time of filing this report.

Nifty, Sensex rallied around 1.5 % after Maharashtra election results, Experts noted short term rally

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors boosted stocks after Donald Trump won a second term.</li><li>But investors shouldn't depart from their long-term investing plan, Morningstar's Dave Sekera says.</li></ul>Investors had a field day on Wednesday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">plowing money into the stock market</a> following the news that former president Donald Trump had won a second term. The S&amp;P 500 rose 2.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up a whopping 3.5%.But even as prices soar, it's important not to get caught up in the mania beyond your normal risk tolerance, warns Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera."Don't let any of these dire headlines that you may see here in the short term dissuade you from your long-term investment objectives," Sekera said in a webinar on Wednesday morning."Based on your risk tolerance, I probably wouldn't be making any changes here today," he continued. "And when you do make changes, make sure that you're only making changes when there's really a change in your underlying fundamentals and only make changes in your portfolio based on an informed analysis."While not letting near-term developments derail your plan for your portfolio is classic advice, Sekera said there's another reason to be extra cautious: stock valuations are at some of their most expensive levels in the last decade-and-a-half."When I look at the market today, it is trading, with today's bump, probably a 3% to 4% premium above fair value," he said. "Now, a lot of investors may say, 'Eh, 3% to 4% doesn't sound like that much from a market point of view,' but when I look at our valuations going back to 2010, less than 20% of the time have we seen the market trade at this much of a premium or more."While Morningstar has its own proprietary valuation measures, common metrics show the S&amp;P 500 is indeed expensive. Below is the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, for example. It's a 10-year rolling average of the market's trailing 12-month PE ratio.<div type="image" title="shiller cape ratio" height="943" width="1242" msid="115062287" hostid="261" sizebytes="44672"></div>These valuation levels have prompted some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-why-sp500-decade-weak-returns-goldman-jpmorgan-2024-11">top investment banks</a>, including Goldman Sachs, to warn of relatively poor returns in the coming decade.At the same time, investors are probably right to be excited about the prospect of lower taxes and regulation, Sekera said. Even what some investors may view as negatives, like tariffs and the potential inflation that could result from them, may end up being a boon for stocks, he said."From the stock point of view, for those companies that have pricing power, that actually could end up helping them generate some additional earnings growth," he said.If Republicans end up taking a majority in the House of Representatives alongside their victory in the Senate and the White House, bullishness around more tax cuts may especially be well founded, according to Sekera.Still, markets are unpredictable, and investors shouldn't overreact to events like elections, as there are many variables at play beyond who is in political power — like starting valuations. Sekera pointed to a recent article from his colleague John Rekenthaler, where he highlighted that oil stocks have done much better under President Joe Biden than they did during Trump's first term, despite their differing attitudes toward the fossil fuel industry.That's again why Sekera is urging restraint, with the market being expensive. That is particularly true for growth stocks, which trade at a "very large premium," he said.Value stocks and small-caps are where Sekera sees the most opportunity — especially in the latter."The small-cap space, even with today's bump, it's still the most undervalued part of the market in our view," he said.

Why you shouldn't get caught up in the post-election stock-market frenzy: Morningstar

Buy these 39 quality stocks with rising earnings in a market with intriguing but imperfect parallels to the highly volatile fall of 2016

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market could face a 7% correction by mid-November, says Fundstrat's Mark Newton.</li><li>Investor complacency and weak seasonals could trigger decline, according to Newton.</li></ul>The stock market looks poised for a 7% correction by mid-November, according to technical analyst Mark Newton of Fundstrat.Newton told clients in a note on Thursday that he is expecting the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> to see weakness heading into November as investor sentiment hits complacent levels just ahead of the general election on November 5."While intermediate-term bullish these remains very much intact, it's doubtful that US Equities continue to push up into and post-election without any consolidation," Newton said.Newton said the potential correction he expects in the stock market is likely to be a "short-term correction only" and "not the start of a larger decline," playing into Fundstrat's Tom Lee's consistent message that investors should view any decline in the stock market as a "buy the dip" opportunity.Newton is monitoring the 5,900 level on the S&amp;P 500 as potential resistance for the index. The S&amp;P 500 traded at around 5,850 on Friday."The issues with near-term complacency (as judged by low Equity put/call levels), waning breadth, poor seasonal trends and cyclical projections for November as well as SPX's largest sector, Technology, not performing well of late, are all reasons to be alert for possible trend change in the weeks to come," Newton explained.One "key reason" Newton is turning bearish in the short-term is that the current rally in stocks that started in early August is 88 days long, which is exactly how long the April 19 to July 16 rally lasted before a sell-off materialized.From a time perspective, that's "why this rally might 'run out of steam," Newton said.Other areas of technical weakness that Newton is monitoring includes negative divergences in momentum as measured by the RSI and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators, a lack of bearish investors as measured by the AAII investor sentiment data, and seasonal cycles that show a peak in the stock market in mid-to-late October followed by a sell-off through November."This market has seemingly 'dodged a bullet' thus far during one of the historically worst periods during most election years. However, investors should not take this to mean that the coast is clear for an interrupted rally higher all year," Newton said.

Why the stock market will drop 7% by mid-November, according to a technical analyst

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A sell-off in semiconductors pulled stock indexes away from record highs.</li><li>The rout was led by Dutch chip firm ASML, which shed 17% on Tuesday.</li></ul>A drop in chipmaker shares on Tuesday hit pause on the latest rally, yanking indexes from the record highs achieved in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1% as Tuesday's session delivered a double-whammy to the semiconductor industry.Europe's largest tech firm, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-tumble-asml-guidance-semiconductor-nvidia-chip-growth-2024-10?_gl=1*amy9ty*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTAwNzg2MS43MzIuMS4xNzI5MDIwOTMzLjYwLjAuMA..">ASML</a>, set off sector-wide gloom when it <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-tumble-asml-guidance-semiconductor-nvidia-chip-growth-2024-10?_gl=1*amy9ty*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTAwNzg2MS43MzIuMS4xNzI5MDIwOTMzLjYwLjAuMA..">posted disappointing earnings and slashed 2025 guidance</a>. Shares of the Dutch chip machine maker plunged 16%.Meanwhile, a report that the US is considering export caps on specific chip sales only added to investor concern, pulling the broader chip sector lower. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a> shed over 5%, while Broadcom dropped over 3%, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company stock dipped more than 2%. The rout took attention from Tuesday's bank sector performance, as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup beat earnings estimates. Meanwhile, oil prices also made waves during the day, falling back as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran took a step back from the worst-case scenario. Though Israel plans to retaliate for a previous Iranian missile strike, it told the US it will only focus on military targets.Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell as much as 5% in intraday trading. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,815.59, down 0.76%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,740.42, down .76% (-324.80 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,315.59, down 1.01%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-layoffs-inflation-spending-job-market-tariffs-morgan-stanley-2024-10">Two things could still go wrong in the US economy and spark a recession</a>, according to Morgan Stanley.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-trade-moscow-beijing-imports-bank-transactions-payments-2024-10">Russian imports from China surged in September as Moscow deepens ties with Beijing</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-vs-bonds-fed-easing-economic-data-goldman-sachs-2024-10?_gl=1*hrqcps*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTAwNzg2MS43MzIuMS4xNzI5MDE5NTkzLjU5LjAuMA..">Stocks beat bonds as risk-on returns amid Fed easing cycle</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-record-price-crypto-election-outcome-microstrategy-cryptocurrency-outlook-trump-2024-10?_gl=1*1s2rwmh*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTAwNzg2MS43MzIuMS4xNzI5MDE5NjY3LjUyLjAuMA..">Bitcoin could face 12% more upside in the weeks ahead of the US election</a>, according to Standard Chartered.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 3.78% to $71.04 a barrel.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 3.52% to $74.73 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> climbed 0.62% to $2,682.1 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield shed four basis points to 4.03%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 1.30% lower to $65,825.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes fall from records as chip rout drags tech shares lower

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets celebrated Donald Trump's election victory on Wednesday.</li><li>The Dow soared by more than 1,400 points. Bank stocks, tech shares and bitcoin rallied in the session.</li></ul>US stocks embarked on a major rally on Wednesday as traders took in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump's election win</a>.Major indexes soared to fresh records, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 1,500 points during the session.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">Bond yields surged</a> as investors eyed the potential for inflation and interest rates to rise again in another Trump term. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury spiked 14 basis points to 4.431%.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,929.05, up 2.53%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,729.93, up 3.57% (+ 1,508.05 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,983.46, up 2.95%</li></ul>Traders piled into assets they see <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">benefitting under a Trump presidency</a>, with markets eyeing an agenda of deregulation and lower taxes benefiting US corporations.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">Bank stocks</a> soared during the day, with Bank of America and Citigroup more than 8%, JPMorgan up 11%, and shares of Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs each up 13%.Tesla <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-win-elon-musk-election-tsla-2024-11">climbed almost 15%</a> to trade at its highest level in over two years. Investors see Elon Musk and his companies among the election winners after the CEO strongly backed Trump during his campaign.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-soars-crypto-president-donald-trumps-election-betting-odds-2024-10">Bitcoin jumped to a fresh record high</a>, climbing above $75,000 for the first time ever. Investors see Trump as the first "crypt president"," hoping that his term will boost digital assets after he courted the market during his campaign.Wall Street will focus on the Fed's policy meeting on Thursday. Central bankers are expected to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">cut rates another 25 basis points</a> on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point cut in December. However, rate cut expectations are starting to ease as investors consider potentially higher inflation under another Trump term."As a result, the Fed rate cut on Thursday may be the last cut, since the Fed does not like to fight market rates," Louis Navellier, the chief investment officer of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a note on Wednesday, pointing to higher Treasury yields."As we move into 2025, we believe it's possible that we only see two or three cuts for the year depending on the mix of policy and growth that plays out," Yung-Yu Ma, the CIO of BMO Wealth Management, added.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-soars-record-valuation-overtakes-apple-nvda-ai-2024-11">Nvidia stock hit a record high</a>, solidifying its position as the world's most valuable company.</li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-48-million-profits-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">polymarket whale that bet big on Donald Trump's victory</a> banked $48 million on Wednesday.</li><li>There are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11?_gl=1*1culf3a*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDkxNjYxMC41MjguMS4xNzMwOTE5MTMyLjM0LjAuMA..">three post-election reasons why stocks are bound to rise</a> through the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/ukraine-bonds-trump-wins-us-election-russia-war-zelenskyy-2024-11">Ukraine bonds jumped after Trump's win</a> amid his vows to help end the war in Ukraine.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped slightly to $71.89 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, edged lower by 0.5% to $75.14 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slumped 2.85% to $2,665.64 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 13 basis points to 4.426%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 9.31% to $75,742.</li></ul>

Stock market euphoric over Trump win

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US indexes were mixed on Wednesday as traders took in the latest inflation data.</li><li>Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, slightly above economists' expectations.</li></ul>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors took in last month's inflation report, which showed an unexpected increase in the monthly core consumer price index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 400 points shortly after the opening bell. Bond yields rose as traders readjusted expectations for a jumbo rate hike of 50 basis points at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. August inflation came mostly in line with economists' expectations, with the consumer price index rising 2.5% year-per-year last month — the slowest pace of inflation recorded since February 2021.But core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month, slightly hotter than anticipated.The surprise increase led investors to almost completely discount the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance central bankers will trim rates by 25 basis points, up from 66% odds priced a day ago, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>."Core inflation beating expectations in August should tilt the Fed toward an initial 25 bps rate cut next week," Josh Jamner, an investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments, said in a note on Wednesday. "Further signs that inflation may be a bit stickier than previously thought would likely result in a slower and shallower cutting cycle. This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets," he added, noting that investors had priced in over 250 basis points worth of cuts by the end of next year."The August CPI report was like the Hippocratic Oath, it did no real harm to the financial markets," Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, wrote in a note. "A 50bps cut should not be in the cards as the recession call needs further deterioration in the labor market and the Fed likes its optionality."Fed officials are set to meet next week to discuss the central bank's next policy move. The latest inflation data is expected to be a major input for central bankers, in addition to producer price data and jobless claims on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,467.46, down 0.51%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,330.96, down 1% (406 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,029.10, up 0.02%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ally-financial-stock-price-plunges-cfo-says-consumer-pressures-intensifying-2024-9">Ally Financial plunged 19%</a> after its CFO said borrowers were struggling.</li><li>Here's why the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-record-high-price-prediction-wells-fargo-2024-9">stock market isn't hitting new highs anytime soon</a>, according to Wells Fargo.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-when-to-buy-home-prices-competition-supply-mortgage-2024-9?_gl=1*p58km6*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjA1OTM3MS4zMjkuMS4xNzI2MDYxMTAxLjU5LjAuMA..">The best week of the year to buy a home is coming up</a>.</li><li>Here's why <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">oil prices have cratered to their lowest level</a> in nearly 3 years.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1.73% to $66.89 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, ticked higher 1.47% to $70.21 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was lower by 0.26% to $2,509.97 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed two basis points to 3.667%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> inched higher 0.2% to $57,011.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Stocks fall as annual inflation slows but monthly CPI notches surprise increase

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ed Yardeni challenged Goldman Sachs' prediction of weak stock market returns in coming years.</li><li>Goldman forecasts 3% annual returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade, but Yardeni says it could be closer to 11%.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs'</a> prediction of a decade of low returns is way too conservative, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.Goldman <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">issued a 10-year outlook for the stock market</a> earlier this week, suggesting that the S&amp;P 500 will deliver average annual returns of just 3%, with a potential range of between -1% and 7%.That prediction didn't sit well with Yardeni, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-roaring-20s-rapid-growth-stock-market-analysis-ed-yardeni-2024-1">has been arguing</a> for the past two years that the stock market is set up for a Roaring 20s-like boom due to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employee-productivity-booming-workers-jobs-ai-stock-market-gdp-2024-3">the ongoing rise in productivity.</a>"In our opinion, even Goldman's optimistic scenario might not be optimistic enough," Yardeni said in a note on Tuesday.Yardeni said with the US economy growing at a 3% clip year-over-year, combined with inflation moderating to about 2%, stock market returns should be closer to 11% on an average annualized basis over the next decade."It's hard to imaging that the total return of the S&amp;P 500 would be only 3% in the future given the returns just from the compounding of reinvested dividends," Yardeni said.The bulk of Goldman's bearish long-term thesis on the stock market hinges on the fact that there is a high level of concentration in just a handful of stocks.But that's warranted based on the fundamentals, Yardeni said."While the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors together now make up about 40% of the overall S&amp;P 500, around the same as at the peak of the dotcom bubble, their companies are much more fundamentally sound today than back then," he said.Yardeni explained that these two sectors represent more than a third of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> earnings power, compared to less than a quarter of the index's earnings at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.Additionally, the definition of a technology company has been warped as technology is pervasive across all sectors, and that's helping drive a boom in productivity, which should support economic growth while keeping inflation in check.Overall, if current trends persist, Yardeni sees a scenario in which the Roaring 20s stock market boom extends into the next decade, which would turn Goldman's conservative outlook upside down."A looming lost decade for US stocks is unlikely if earnings and dividends continue to grow at solid paces, boosted by higher profit margins thanks to better technology-led productivity growth," Yardeni said.

Why Goldman Sachs' prediction of a lost decade for stocks is wrong, according to a market vet

<ul class="summary-list"><li>An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz.</li><li>Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes.</li></ul>An acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz. While that may sound counterintuitive, as a recession would also not be great for stocks, Blitz wrote in a note on Tuesday that the "no landing" scenario is a big risk as it could lead to a fresh spike in inflation and an about-face by the Federal Reserve. "What has now become the biggest risk in the Fed's cut and aggressive guidance, and the one markets are not pricing - that there is no landing at all," Blitz said.Blitz is concerned that the Fed will keep interest rates too low for too long, leading to a hot economy and making inflation once again Wall Street's biggest worry."The Fed will not get the funds rate down to 3%, but the terminal rate for this round will nevertheless end up too low and be kept there for too long. Inflation subsequently rebounds and the Fed is back raising rates sooner than anyone expects," Blitz said.That would be a wake-up call for investors, especially as the "Goldilocks" dream of a soft landing in the economy becomes the consensus on Wall Street.According to Blitz, the Fed funds rate should settle at around 4%, a full percentage point above the long-term projections of numerous Fed members, because the economy is still showing remarkable resilience."One cannot ignore that in the face of higher real rates versus pre-Covid, the economy has stayed strong and employment full," Blitz said.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for third-quarter GDP growth is 2.9%, imports on a year-over-year basis are seeing an uptick, and more containers are "riding the rails" in a positive sign for economic health, Blitz observed.None of those signals suggests that the Fed needs to follow through with aggressive interest rate cuts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-dow-record-high-rate-cut-hopes-rise-2024-9">like the futures market is currently projecting,</a> he said.The CME's FedWatch Tool is pricing 75 basis points of interest rate cuts before year-end, in addition to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut last week.</a>"Running a too-low real funds rate, which this Fed is apt to do, consequently risks a much higher inflation outcome than they are assuming," Blitz warned.The potential Fed policy mistake that Blitz is so worried about would mirror the 1960s, according to the note, which helped fuel a painful decade ahead of high inflation and poor stock market returns.

Why a jump in economic growth could be the stock market's nightmare scenario

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes fell Thursday before Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for September.</li><li>Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate.</li></ul>Markets closed lower on Thursday amid rising fears over spiraling Middle East tensions and as traders prepared to digest the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday morning.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 200 points, while the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq both stumbled. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year bond yield up seven basis points to 3.855%.The decline was fueled by further fears of escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.In remarks to reporters, President Joe Biden was vague about the potential for retaliatory strikes by Israel against Iran, but suggested it's a possibility.The world has been on edge after Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on Tuesday, retaliating for Israel's killing of the Hezbollah leader.Biden's comments pushed crude prices higher. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86.If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10?_gl=1*1nljk35*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk4MjI3MS4yMjIuMS4xNzI3OTg0NzQyLjMuMC4w">surge 161%</a> to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.Weekly jobless claims on Thursday came in at 225,000, an increase of 6,000 from the week before, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Economists had expected an increase of just 2,000.Investors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. The report is expected to show the unemployment rate staying flat at 4.2%, and an increase of 150,000 jobs in September, more than the 142,000 increase from August.The data will be a key indicator on the health of the labor market as the Federal Reserve makes its next rate-cut decision after its jumbo 50 basis point rate cut last month.Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,699.97, down 0.17%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,011.59, down 0.44% (184.93 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,918.47, down 0.04%</li></ul>Here's what else was going on Thursday:<ul><li>Why China's massive stimulus effort <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-monetary-stimulus-package-xi-jinping-beijing-interest-rates-2024-10">might not have any effect until next year</a>.</li><li>Costco is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/costco-starts-selling-platinum-bars-gold-silver-retail-success-2024-10?_gl=1*1v69c35*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk4MjI3MS4yMjIuMS4xNzI3OTg0ODU2LjE0LjAuMA..">selling platinum bars</a> as it expands its precious-metals business after huge success selling gold</li><li>Nvidia <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-jensen-huang-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-2024-10?_gl=1*1knr2l0*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk4MjI3MS4yMjIuMS4xNzI3OTg0ODc2LjU5LjAuMA..">stock jumps</a> after CEO Jensen Huang says "demand for Blackwell is insane"</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures rose. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose 5.3% to $77.86.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was up 0.3% $2,678 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up seven basis points to 3.855%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was up 1.2% to $61,075.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes fall, oil surges on Middle East turmoil ahead of jobs report     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AI stocks like Nvidia, Super Micro Computer, and Broadcom soared nearly 20% this week.</li><li>The rally was sparked as Oracle and Nvidia CEOs addressing concerns about AI returns.</li></ul>The stock market's artificial intelligence trade was revived this week, with shares of AI stalwarts like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/smci-stock">Super Micro Computer</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/avgo-stock">Broadcom</a> all soaring nearly 20%.AI-related names and semiconductor shares were caught in a slump following Nvidia's second-quarter earnings two weeks ago. Nvidia shares slid sharply after the company failed to meet sky-high expectations, which led to investors questioning how much further the AI trade could possibly run after a yearslong hot streak. Questions about the return on the billions of dollars worth of investment into AI by big firms led to a sell-off in the wider space. But the market staged a comeback this week as key players separately addressed some burning questions investors are asking about what to expect from big AI spend. At midday on Friday, shares of Nvidia and Oracle were both 16% higher for the week, while Super Micro Computer stock was up 19%, and Broadcom rose 21%. Helping to drive the week's resurgence were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/orcl-stock">Oracle</a> cofounder, chairman, and billionaire investor Larry Ellison, along with Nvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang.Both executives addressed concerns about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-stocks-risk-nvidia-gpus-blackwell-tech-outlook-depreciation-accounting-2024-8">the return on investment for AI infrastructure spend,</a> and investors seem to be taking their word for it.<h2 id="b46ae1b0-31fd-46e1-a2f2-5e74ba98258f">Oracle's Ellison: 'This race goes on forever'</h2>Oracle reported solid earnings after the market close on Monday, and on the earnings call, Ellison made a point to talk up the immense potential of artificial intelligence.Talking about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending trends, which have exploded in recent years, Ellison said it's not going to stop."This race goes on forever, to build a better and better neural network. And the cost of that training gets to be astronomical," Ellison said.He added: "I think this is an ongoing battle for technical supremacy that will be fought by a handful of companies and maybe one nation-state over the next five years at least, but probably more like 10. So this business is just growing larger and larger and larger. There's no slowdown or shift coming."Since those bullish comments, Oracle shares soared as much as 24% at their intraday peak on Friday.At its analyst day on Friday, Oracle also gave investors long-term annual revenue guidance of $104 billion by 2029 with earnings per share set to grow more than 20% between now and then."This matched the bullishness the Company has been coyly hinting at for a number of months now; this was the upside to expectations that justifies continued multiple expansion, in our view," KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader said in a note.According to Ellison, building an AI training model for cloud companies will cost upward of $100 billion."That's over the next four, five years for anyone who wants to play in that game. That's a lot of money, and it doesn't get easier," Ellison said.That should be great news for Nvidia, which is the main supplier of AI-enabling GPU chips that cloud companies use to build their models.<h2 id="ce90f725-5b29-4e18-9be9-fff77569b08c">Nvidia's Huang: 'You get a 10x savings'</h2>At a Goldman Sachs conference on Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was directly asked about concerns related to its customers' return on investment in AI spending, and Huang gave a direct answer."The return on that is fantastic because the demand is so great that for every dollar they spend with us translates to $5 worth of rentals. And that's happening all over the world and everything is all sold out," Huang said of the cloud hyper scalers buying his company's chips.On top of that, Huang explained that could companies are seeing immense cost savings with Nvidia's GPUs thanks to the computation inflation found with CPUs."You reduce the computing time by about 20 times, and so you get a 10x savings," Huang said of running Nvidia's GPU accelerators relative to traditional CPUs.Shares of Nvidia have surged 12% since Huang took the stage at Goldman's conference Wednesday morning.The AI rally has spread throughout the tech sector this week, with semiconductor stocks seeing renewed interest and a nearly 10% surge.

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