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How political violence has rocked US elections

<ul class="summary-list"><li>My son is 15 and we have a very open communication. </li><li>This starkly contrasts my relationship with my mom at the same age he is now. </li></ul>My son is 15 and our lines of communication are wide open — a stark contrast from my relationship with my mom at his age. One of the reasons we <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/health/mental-health/how-does-social-media-affect-teenagers">stay connected is social media</a>.As a GenXer, staying current with technology has always been important. I was around for Pong, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aim-shutting-down-december-2017-10">AOL Instant Messenger</a>, and Netscape, and now I buy coffee through an app and pay for haircuts with Venmo. Keeping up with trends and lingo is part of my work. So I spend time daily on my old lady platform (Facebook) but also on Reddit, Instagram, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-ramped-up-hiring-chinese-employees-amid-us-political-scrutiny-2024-11">TikTok</a>.TikTok and Instagram have allowed me to continue communicating with my kid even when the sound of my voice is annoying. <h2 id="13d7749f-a448-4214-a3c1-a6a69c81cb7e">We watch videos together</h2>I <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-create-healthy-boundaries-for-coparenting-after-divorce-2023-9">have shared custody</a>, so I see him every other week. A year ago, he started sending me TikToks and Reels from his dad's, with the admonishment that I would not watch them until we were together the following week. This is now a ritual. One of the first things we do when he arrives is watch everything he sent.This can be a time suck. There can be hundreds of videos to watch. But I know it's important to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/study-teens-would-rather-text-with-friends-than-hang-out-in-real-life-2018-9">find this time to connect</a>. He sometimes sends videos from school or at night after I've gone to bed so we have daily content to watch. He'll hop on the bed next to me before I go to sleep so we can watch them together and discuss. Mostly, we laugh a lot.<h2 id="50062a7a-8a22-4c97-ae3a-4e101c7654d0">He isn't into snuggles anymore</h2>This precious time is pretty much all the physical connection we have left. Gone is the little boy who loved to be carried for hikes, toddled next to me through farmer's markets, and sat on my lap while we watched movies at home. This tall, gangly kid <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/my-husband-and-i-share-family-bed-with-our-kids-2023-10">isn't into snuggles</a>. But I believe physical touch is still an important part of our bond. For him, it's OK to sit next to me with his leg touching mine if we're sharing these laughs.It's more than laughs, though. While many videos are gross or silly teenage boy humor, others are thought-provoking, sparking deep discussion and spirited debate.Politics, religion, science, life choices, and risk-taking are just some of the discussions social content has sparked. He questions things at a more advanced level than I ever could have at his age. <h2 id="7687b206-5e23-4c5a-98d2-81f88d552a13">We are learning things</h2>Recently, we had an hourlong debate about chores based on a TikTok I sent that quoted a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a2338">Harvard study</a> that concludes that kids who do chores are ultimately more successful. I give him chores, but his dad doesn't. His friends who do chores get paid for them via an allowance. Nobody pays adults to do chores, so I don't pay him because, in my view, we should all contribute to the upkeep of our home for mutual good. He presented his viewpoints, and I argued each one, discussing adult responsibilities and the importance of a place that's kept nice, even if it's just for you. When it was over, he said, "About halfway through, I realized I was wrong, but I felt like I had to keep arguing." We talked about that, too — how to gracefully concede.I also use it to show him what's coming up — I have always prepared him for what's next. I send him funny videos of parents teaching their kids to drive, and he sends them back to me. At the end of the summer, I sent videos of college students on their first night in the dorm after being dropped off by their parents. Some were funny; some were definitely poignant. He also sends them back to me — like a kid not knowing how to answer questions at the on-campus medical clinic, with the message, "Me when I get to college."None of this connection would be happening if we didn't communicate through these videos.My hope is that we can continue to stay connected this way. I don't want him to roll his eyes when he sees me calling; I want to be the mom with whom he can still freely share his questions, challenges, and, most especially, what made him laugh today.

Watching TikTok videos with my teen keeps us connected. We've had thoughtful conversations thanks to social media.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has chosen Pete Hegseth as his defense secretary at a key point in the war in Ukraine.</li><li>The military veteran and Fox News commentator has mostly aligned with Trump on Ukraine.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump announced Pete Hegseth, a military veteran and Fox News host, as his pick for defense secretary on Tuesday — in a move that came as a surprise to many onlookers.The choice of Hegseth raised questions about the US' approach to the war in Ukraine under a second Trump administration.In an episode of the "<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoN5ovwB8s4">Shawn Ryan Show</a>" podcast last week, recorded before Trump's announcement, Hegseth said he didn't think Russian President Vladimir Putin would go further than Ukraine and attack countries like Poland.He also said that he didn't want US intervention to push Putin too far and consider nuclear weapons."I don't want American intervention driving deep into Europe and making him feel like he's so much on his heels that he does have to — because early on, he was talking about nukes," Hegseth said.He added that the US had "burned two decades of money" in Afghanistan and Iraq, and that it was "tempted to do it again" in Ukraine.<h2 id="61256949-e32e-4db3-8cb6-308e5ff46ccf">Hegseth on Ukraine</h2>Hegseth has long mirrored some of Trump's key positions on foreign policy and Ukraine.Back in 2022, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-genius-putin-troll-media-pete-hegseth-fox-news-host-2022-2">Hegseth defended remarks</a> Trump had made just before Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Trump had called Putin's recognition of the independence of the Ukrainian breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-justification-genius-savvy-2022-2">"genius" and "wonderful."</a>Trump's comments shocked onlookers at the time. But Hegseth argued on "Jesse Watters Primetime" that Trump was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-genius-putin-troll-media-pete-hegseth-fox-news-host-2022-2">merely trying to "troll" the US media</a> that had made Putin into a strawman.Putin invaded Ukraine two days later.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxDe0KtJJio">Speaking on Fox News</a> in March 2022, Hegseth also criticized both Putin as a "war criminal" and the administration of President Joe Biden for not equipping Ukraine fast enough.Notably, he said that Putin sees any cease-fire as "an opportunity to reload.""What's at stake is repelling an authoritarian who basically is saying 'I want the Soviet Union back, I want Ukraine back, I want Kyiv back,'" he said.<h2 id="4f78b610-6763-4299-ac3b-80324c5e4541">Critical of NATO</h2>Hegseth has also been critical of the US' NATO allies, saying in the same Fox interview that the US should step up if Putin's aggression spread to Eastern Europe, but that as the most exposed countries they should be taking the lead.However, Hegseth's rhetoric on NATO has steadily sharpened in recent years, with him calling the US' allies "outdated, outgunned, invaded, and impotent" in his book "The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-will-nominate-fox-news-host-pete-hegseth-defense-secretary-2024-11-13/">according to Reuters</a>.Trump has long been vocal about NATO countries not meeting their target of 2% of GDP spent on their militaries, even going so far as to say that he'd encourage other countries to invade those that don't meet it.<h2 id="25c55fe0-3e27-45b5-85e3-00c22afe334f">A diminished role?</h2>Even so, military analysts who talked to BI said they don't expect Hegseth to play a major decision-making role in policy toward Ukraine, or in any decision to scale back aid.In office, Hegseth would join a group of senior Trump officials with influence over the direction of the war, though Trump would have the final say. His national security advisor, Michael Waltz, and vice president, JD Vance would also likely be significant voices, as would Trump's choice for Secretary of State, which several outlets reported is likely to be Senator Marco Rubio.Vance has previously criticized US support for Ukraine, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-soldiers-react-trump-election-win-war-russia-military-aid-2024-11">said</a>: "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another."Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, said that "Trump is selecting members of his administration primarily based on their personal loyalty."This means that their own opinions "may not matter that much — it will be up to what Trump wants them to do," he added.Libman said he expects Trump to invest considerable efforts to stop the war early on, and his cabinet members to fall in line.Anton Barbashin, the cofounder and editorial director at Riddle Russia, an online journal on Russian affairs, told BI that he doesn't expect Defense Secretary Hegseth to cut support for Ukraine, with any peace deal between Putin and Trump unlikely in the short term.Instead, he said the US may actually ramp up aid to Ukraine if peace talks fail."So far, the signals are moderately opportunistic — Trump is nominating hawkish folks, so Kyiv may count on increased support," he said.

Trump's Pentagon pick criticized US involvement in Ukraine, said Putin probably wouldn't go 'much further' if he wins

<ul class="summary-list"><li>I've lived in Canada for over a decade, and though it's not perfect, I prefer it to the US.</li><li>I've had major surgery and dealt with long COVID for years and haven't paid a cent for healthcare.</li></ul>When my partner was offered a job in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-toronto-best-city-quick-trip-things-to-do-skip-2024-10">Toronto</a> 13 years ago, we felt like we'd won the lottery.We were living in the Midwest, where people stared at us as if they'd never seen a multiracial couple before and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cosmopolitan-jessica-pels-career-advice-how-to-get-dream-job-2020-4">Cosmopolitan magazine</a> was covered with black plastic in the supermarket because it was too racy.We'd long wanted to live somewhere more diverse and walkable, with less violence. Settling in downtown Toronto — where we could walk or take <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/canada-via-rail-vs-amtrak-business-class-review-photos-2022-8">public transportation</a> and over half of the population was born outside Canada — was like being in a smaller, cleaner version of New York City.Add on the promise of Canadian healthcare, and we were close to nirvana.After living for more than a decade in Canada, we've come to realize that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-to-canada-from-us-pros-cons-heathcare-home-prices">country is far from perfect</a>. But there are many factors that make it unimaginable for me to live in the US again.<h2 id="a284571f-bca4-4fba-a6f4-d7f8b2efefe7">Canada's healthcare system isn't perfect, but I prefer it to the US's</h2>Canadian healthcare has its downsides.While the majority of care is free, people typically have to pay out of pocket for prescriptions, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-americans-dont-exercise-mental-health-crisis-depression-anxiety-fitness-2024-6">mental-health</a> care, and dental and vision care, which can make these services inaccessible to many.Despite that, I can't envision living without <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dr-adam-kay-americas-been-gaslit-about-socialized-medicine-2019-12">socialized medicine</a> again. I had a complicated pregnancy and an emergency C-section and I developed long COVID four years ago, but I've never paid a cent for healthcare here.When I lived in the US, I worked in public health in California, helping uninsured families access care. I saw firsthand <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-get-medical-bills-reduced-negotiate-challenge-payment-plan-2024-9">how medical debt could ruin people</a>.There was also a brief time when I was in my 20s, before the Affordable Care Act, when I <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-millennials-giving-up-medical-care-cant-afford-costs-2024-2">lived without health insurance</a> in California and was terrified of getting injured and ending up with a huge hospital bill.<h2 id="82b9efcc-e263-4015-b997-fc1d979a471a">Traveling in Canada can be more expensive, but we've found ways to manage</h2><div type="image" title="landscape of Canada's Laurentian Mountains" height="3840" width="5760" msid="115259769" hostid="261" sizebytes="1759662"></div>Because of <a target="_blank" href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/airlines-fees-canada">federal regulations</a>, domestic flights in Canada are often more expensive than flights to the US. However, we've found ways to manage by coordinating work trips and visiting friends.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beautiful-natural-wonders-2018-7">Canada's nature</a> is one of our favorite aspects of living here. We've vacationed across the country, but we have a special fondness for Québec's Laurentian Mountains and the forests of Ontario.We also spent months in the Yukon subarctic, where we glimpsed a grizzly bear, lynx, moose, scores of ravens, and wilderness more pristine than I thought possible.<h2 id="001263da-7c4c-4498-aabe-c1e9c7dbf46c">We love the diversity in Toronto, but we have experienced racism</h2>My husband and I found friends through community groups and parent-and-baby classes with other immigrant parents. Our friends are from all over, including Nigeria, Russia, Pakistan, Mexico, China, and Peru.Living in such a global environment is simply second nature for our Canadian-born child, who became trilingual in kindergarten in a public French school.However, immigrants and people of color aren't always treated kindly, despite Canada having had an official <a target="_blank" href="http://pier21.ca/research/immigration-history/canadian-multiculturalism-policy-1971">multiculturalism policy</a> since 1971.My Afro-Latino partner often laments the racism he's experienced in Canada, which has been more directly harmful to him than the racism he experienced in the United States.For example, he sold his bike after nearly being hit by drivers so many times, including one who told him to get off the road before calling him the N-word.When he does porch drop-offs of kids' items I've sold on Marketplace, he gets followed and questioned by people who act like he's a thief.And when we renewed his employer-sponsored work permit at the border a decade ago, an immigration official grilled him and said, "Couldn't they find a Canadian for the job?"In part because of those experiences, my husband has felt compelled to connect even more with different BIPOC communities in Canada.After we moved here, he found out about his Indigenous Caribbean ancestry through genetic testing, and it has become an extremely important part of our experience as a family to educate ourselves about Indigenous people's histories, lives, and teachings. We see it as one of our responsibilities as settlers.<h2 id="859b0674-9e41-4b48-abbc-f3eccee0cca8">I prefer living in Canada to the United States</h2><div type="image" title="Canadian flag with Toronto skyline in the background" height="3744" width="5616" msid="115259767" hostid="261" sizebytes="940328"></div>The longer I live here, the less I feel like I belong when I travel back to the US.My family inhabits multiple marginalized identities — queer, <a target="_blank" href="https://economichardship.org/2023/04/the-disabled-tax-means-i-pay-extra-for-necessities-constantly/">disabled</a>, immigrant, and BIPOC — that are under attack in the US. The ability to live and thrive outside the US, with free healthcare to boot, has long made me feel survivor's guilt for enjoying that stability.There are trade-offs to Canadian life: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/canada-housing-crisis-bubble-imploding-real-estate-prices-rent-decline-2023-11">Astronomical housing costs</a> caused by foreign investment and government policy make me worry that when my child is an adult, they won't be able to afford rent, much less buy a home.I'm also disabled and cannot work full time. If I'm ever without my partner's financial support, I wouldn't qualify for or be able to live on my province's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.tvo.org/article/people-cant-live-on-dirt-disabled-ontarians-push-for-odsp-reform">paltry disability benefits</a>.In the end, it's a balancing act.I will forever follow events in American society and politics, even when I someday become a Canadian citizen. But for my family's safety and health, there's no going back.

My husband and I moved from the US to Canada 13 years ago. We love the free healthcare here and the great friends we made.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In an interview with Harpers Bazaar, Sophie Turner opened up about her marriage to Joe Jonas and her life in the US.</li><li>The "Game of Thrones" actor said she often felt homesick in the US and struggled with American politics.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sophie-turner-joe-jonas-dating-timeline-2017-10">Sophie Turner</a> said she struggled with American politics when she was married to Joe Jonas and living in the US.In an interview with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.harpersbazaar.com/uk/culture/culture-news/a62715149/sophie-turner-cover-shoot-interview/">Harpers Bazaar</a> published on Wednesday, the British actor opened up about the years she spent in the US. After marrying Jonas, Turner moved to LA in 2019, and they relocated to Miami in 2021. She said she felt homesick wherever they went. "Every city we ended up in, the first thing I'd do was find a British shop and stock up on a month's worth of chocolate," she told Harpers Bazaar.Still, Turner, 28, found it most difficult to cope with America's politics. "The gun violence, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-abortion-decision-final-ruling-scotus-roe-v-wade-2022-6">Roe v. Wade</a> being overturned... Everything just kind of piled on," she said.After the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/uvalde-shooting">school shooting in Uvalde</a> in 2022, where a teenage gunman fatally shot 19 children and two teachers, Turner said she "knew it was time to get the fuck out of there."In May, she said in an interview with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/sophie-turner-british-vogue-interview">British Vogue</a> that at the time, she felt like a "little bird trapped in a gilded cage" living in the US."I couldn't fathom being a mother of one of those children knowing that this was something your country could fix, that they'd rather have rights to guns than give kids a right to life," she said."Meanwhile, women in the US are being stripped of their rights, left, right and center. It all contributed to this feeling of I have to get out, I have to get out."The "Game of Thrones" actor and Jonas announced their plan to divorce last year. They <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-jonas-sophie-turner-children-daughters-parenting-facts-2023-9">share two daughters</a>, Willa, 4, and Delphine, 2.Turner, who now lives in West London, told Harpers Bazaar she's "so happy to be back.""It felt as if my life was on pause until I returned to England," she said.A representative for Turner didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider sent outside regular business hours.<h2 id="92a3a2d4-f876-4d6b-b57b-eb824c9d0256">When politics becomes a reason to leave</h2>Politics is also weighing heavily on many Americans; the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/americans-dismal-views-of-the-nations-politics/">Pew Research Center</a> surveyed 8,480 US adults in July 2023 and found that nearly two-thirds of Americans say they always or often feel "exhausted" when thinking about politics.In March, BI reported that the political outlook amid the upcoming election has also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reelected-americans-are-planning-to-flee-in-droves-2024-3">prompted some to consider leaving the country.</a>Fears over gun violence have pushed others to look elsewhere.In September, Genie Doi, an attorney, told BI that a shooting near her son's day care had <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-mom-moved-family-osaka-japan-safety-and-affordability-school-2024-9">prompted her to relocate her family</a> from California to Japan in 2022."Since we moved, over the past almost two years, gun violence in the US has continued. It just keeps happening," she said. "So I'm grateful that I could get my children out of that environment."Similarly, Chris Ouellet, who lived in Chicago, previously told BI that one reason he moved to British Columbia in 2020 with his partner was to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-to-canada-from-us-differences-pros-cons-guns-drugs-2023-12">escape gun violence</a>."When you're out in public and you hear a noise, no one runs, no one checks over their shoulder, and no one thinks that it could be gun violence," he said.

Sophie Turner says American politics made it too hard to cope with living in the US

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US considered invading Japanese-occupied Taiwan in World War II.</li><li>Top US commanders decided it would be a high-casualty nightmare.</li></ul>The US once planned an invasion and seizure of Taiwan that would have been as big as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-it-took-to-pull-of-d-day-invasion-2019-5">D-Day</a>.Operation Causeway would send hundreds of thousands of troops, supported by thousands of ships and aircraft, to storm the beaches of the Japanese-occupied territory in 1945."Almost certainly, the invasion would have been a horrific spectacle and nightmarish ordeal," said Ian Easton, an analyst who authored a new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-maritime-reports/42/">study</a> on the invasion for the China Maritime Studies Institute. "Far worse than any battle that was actually fought in the Pacific. The campaign would have been protracted and might have taken six months or even a year."The CMSI study makes clear that a US invasion of Taiwan in 1945 — or a Chinese invasion today — would be difficult and risky.Like many years ago, today's Taiwan would likely wield Japanese fortifications and tactics to defeat a large Chinese amphibious assault — illustrating the risks and dangers of any attempt to seize the island that Beijing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-claim-us-trying-trick-china-invaded-taiwan-divide-allies-experts-2024-6">views</a> as a breakaway province.<div type="image" title="Battleship USS Tennessee bombards Okinawa while tracked landing vehicles carry troops to the invasion beaches." height="1290" width="1632" msid="114911578" hostid="261" sizebytes="94232"></div><h2 id="07f9280d-ef96-4980-878b-f2f80d092ff7">'A long, drawn-out fight'</h2>The genesis of the planned American invasion — eventually codenamed Operation Causeway — began in the late 1920s as the US Navy and Army crafted a strategy for a potential war with Japan. War Plan Orange envisaged an advance across the Pacific that would culminate with an assault on Taiwan — then called Formosa — which the Japanese Empire <a target="_blank" href="https://pacificaffairs.ubc.ca/book-reviews/imperial-gateway-colonial-taiwan-and-japans-expansion-in-south-china-and-southeast-asia-1895-1945-by-seiji-shirane/">annexed</a> from China in 1895 after the First Sino-Japanese War. The plan called for 90,000 Army and Marine personnel to capture Taiwan, which would turn the island into a staging point for an invasion of Japan. By the 1930s, Taiwan was discarded in favor of seizing Okinawa, a smaller objective closer to the four largest Japanese islands.In 1944, with Japan crumbling and an invasion of the Japanese mainland appearing likely, American planners again eyed Taiwan as an amphibious staging point and a base for B-29 Superfortress strategic bombers. Navy Chief Adm. Ernest King favored the Taiwan option, while Gen. Douglas MacArthur lobbied for an invasion of the Philippines. For a time, "General MacArthur's return to the Philippines was viewed as a secondary and supporting campaign," the CMSI study said.Initial plans called for a 12-division assault in early 1945. But with the European theater receiving priority for American forces, this was scaled down to six divisions (about the size of the initial assault force in the Normandy invasion). The objective would be to occupy southern Taiwan and the mainland Chinese port of Xiamen across the Taiwan Strait.But this meant subduing a heavily defended island of 14,000 square miles studded with cities, mountains, and forests. The more they studied the challenges, the more worried some senior officers became. Just finding sufficient forces would be a nightmare. "In total, it was believed that a force of 776,913 would be needed for Causeway, including all six divisions of the US Marine Corps, 20 B-29 bomber groups, 41 miscellaneous bomber squadrons, 40 fighter squadrons, and large numbers of naval engineers and logistics support units," explained the CMSI report.The biggest flaw in Operation Causeway was an underestimation of Japanese defenses. Intelligence assessments expected a garrison of 90,000 to 170,000 troops. In fact, the Japanese had 275,000 troops, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nippon.com/en/features/c03305/">conscripted Taiwanese natives</a>. They were backed by 20 squadrons of kamikaze aircraft and 600 suicide boats.The Japanese had anticipated the landings would be in southern Taiwan. They planted 10,000 sea mines, including 5,200 in the Taiwan Strait alone. Mindful of overwhelming American firepower, they built elaborate systems of trenches, bunkers, and tunnels above the beaches and across the island."Imperial Japanese and Formosan troops would have conducted a long, drawn-out fight in the cities and mountains," said Easton. "A guerilla warfare campaign was planned for after the conventional fighting came to an end. Taiwan's defenders were determined to fight to the bitter end, and the defensive geography, stockpiles, and underground bunkers they had were extraordinary."How would a US invasion of Taiwan fare? Other Pacific War battles offer grim clues. When American troops landed in the Philippines in October 1944, they slogged through jungles and mountains in a campaign that still hadn't ended when Japan surrendered in August 1945. In the April 1945 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wwii-battle-of-okinawa-may-have-prevented-invasion-of-japan-2020-6">invasion</a> of the island of Okinawa, US forces suffered 50,000 casualties in two months, as they confronted dense fortifications in hilly terrain, as well as 2,000 kamikaze aircraft attacks that sunk or damaged hundreds of Navy ships.In the end, the Taiwan idea was abandoned. "From the military view, it was absolutely the right decision," Easton said. "Professional war planners detested the idea of having to fight on Taiwan, and with good reason."<div type="image" title="US troops suffered 50,000 casualties in two months of hard fighting in the Okinawa invasion." height="1333" width="2000" msid="114911577" hostid="261" sizebytes="346978"></div><h2 id="33797d97-f032-4e79-af9f-e1d15b1b8089">Lessons for China</h2>Even eight decades after the Japanese occupation ended, Taiwan's military is still influenced by Japanese doctrine, such as the importance of hardening airbases, and how to confront an amphibious invader armed with massive air and naval firepower.Taiwanese forces still use Japanese-built facilities, including some bunker complexes. Some Taiwanese officers advocate renovating old beach defenses, and preparing for protracted guerilla war as the Japanese did.China would face these challenges and more in trying to seize Taiwan today."Taiwanese military officers pay close attention to history, and especially the history of island warfare, urban warfare, and amphibious warfare," said Easton. "They have all the defensive benefits that the Imperial Japanese enjoyed and more, thanks to modern weaponry and strong American support."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

A US invasion of Taiwan in WWII would have been a disaster. A Chinese operation faces similar dangers.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US has played a key role in countering China in the South China Sea.</li><li>But any intensified US efforts could trigger a confrontation, experts told BI.</li></ul>The US has played an active security role in the South China Sea in recent years, but with China increasingly confrontational in the region, things could come to a head.US ships and aircraft have repeatedly operated within the wide expanse claimed by China to assert international rights to navigation, carried out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/US7thFleet/status/1834396679216181394">military</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/indopacom/status/1836389721502568770?s=46&amp;t=o-gfid_uWzVLqbUuvoCCsg">exercises</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1834577777598894323">with</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836163226528350500">regional</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1835438447907295450">allies</a>, and <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/01/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-the-united-states-and-the-philippines/">reaffirmed</a> its <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3836245/track-record-and-trajectory-us-philippine-defense-ties-since-2021-remarks-by-as/">commitments</a> to regional partners.It has also <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836525608056033674">helped</a> Southeast Asian countries to <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828775660015522069">modernize</a> their militaries and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828653505885938023">deepen</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836666038475489463">ties</a> with countries pursuing similar security goals.However, some Asia regional analysts warn that any further attempt to intensify US efforts in the contested waters could agitate regional partners, trigger China's ire, and backfire on the US and its partners."The last thing that any Southeast Asian country wants is for this to spill over into an active conflict," Bill Hayton, an associate fellow with Chatham House's Asia-Pacific program, told Business Insider.On the other hand, a US pullback would enable China to bully its smaller neighbors in ways that could also trigger a military clash.They "want a Goldilocks situation in the South China Sea — not too hot, not too cold," he added.<div type="image" title="A China Coast Guard ship (R) sailed past the Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Cape Engaño (L) during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea on August 26, 2024." height="2000" width="3000" msid="114167295" hostid="261" sizebytes="189602"></div><h2 id="9deb4483-b117-443f-9cc5-4db4f72459bc">Keeping a balance</h2>Southeast Asian leaders have tried to keep a balance between the US and China through ASEAN, a political and economic union of 10 countries with the stated <a target="_blank" href="https://asean.org/what-we-do#asean-aims">goal</a> of "promoting regional peace and stability."ASEAN held its annual summit in Laos this week, in part to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/asean-summit-laos-myanmar-south-china-sea-254fe0f7f8b484df5bdb05c0557fccd6">discuss</a> territorial tensions in the South China Sea. China has made expansive and legally dubious claims to nearly all of the sea, which is a major shipping route and boasts natural resources like fish and oil fields.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese coast guard vessels and ones from the Philippines, including one <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">encounter</a> where swords and knives were brandished and a Filipino soldier reportedly lost a thumb.Speaking at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-the-asean-summit-with-the-united-states/">ASEAN summit</a>, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Southeast Asian leaders that the US was concerned about China's "increasingly dangerous and unlawful" activities in the disputed waters."The United States will continue to support freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight in the Indo-Pacific," he added.The US is the only military with the size and sophistication to push back on China's forces, however, any US attempt to step up its role in the region could affect the delicate balance.Hunter Marston, a Ph.D. candidate in international relations at the Australian National University in the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, said all 10 ASEAN countries have their own security interests and different views about the US' role in the region.While countries that keep close ties to the US, like Singapore, the Philippines, and to some extent Vietnam, would be "very" supportive of increased US security in the region, other countries that fear a larger US military presence in the South China Sea, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and perhaps Cambodia, would be "more vocally" opposed to it, he said.Another aspect is that China's wide claims don't directly affect Indonesia and Cambodia, meaning they have less to lose.<div type="image" title="An infographic of the disputed South China Sea on January 06, 2023." height="4138" width="5697" msid="114167294" hostid="261" sizebytes="390018"></div><h2 id="1c59d1ef-370d-4010-a9b6-a8ba1510690f">A bipartisan issue</h2>Ramping up the US security role in the South China Sea without upsetting the balance of power is "a challenge that dates back to at least the Bush administration," Marston said, referring to the administration of George W. Bush.Following 9/11, the Bush administration <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41311-023-00486-0#Fn5">stepped up</a> its security involvement in the region by strengthening the US military presence there and increasing diplomatic ties with key ASEAN nations.The Obama administration then pursued a policy of strategic "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacific">rebalancing</a>," with the underlying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pafo.12115">goal</a> of preventing China from becoming the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region.The Trump administration took a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/08/from-pivot-to-defiance-american-policy-shift-in-the-south-china-sea/">harder line</a>, stepping up its freedom of navigation patrols, conducting naval exercises in the region, and at one point <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csp.navy.mil/Media/News-Admin/Article/2186392/pacific-fleet-submarines-lethal-agile-underway/">deploying</a> all of its forward-deployed nuclear attack submarines into the Western Pacific.Marston said the Biden administration has adopted elements of Obama's policy and tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Yet, China has remained undeterred in its efforts to dominate the contested islands, and has grown more aggressive in encounters with regional claimants, notably the Philippines."It's really plagued multiple administrations," Martson said.<h2 id="5c410507-89c1-4bdb-b90b-5027be104561">A polarized region</h2>Gregory B. Poling, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told BI that the South China Sea has served as a "wedge" within ASEAN because only four out of 10 countries have a direct stake in it."Frankly, a lot of them would rather the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia just give up their rights in order to make this issue go away so they can get back to trading and investing with China," he said.According to Chatham House's Hayton, increased US intervention could further split the alliance and also potentially drag the US into a conflict with China that jeopardizes Southeast Asian countries' economies.The US might be called in to help enforce <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3738629/war-with-china-a-view-from-early-2024/">freedom of navigation</a> or defend its partners in the event of a military confrontation between China and its neighbors.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">Adm. Samuel Paparo</a>, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, hinted at this last August, saying the US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels in the South China Sea following clashes with China in recent months.Even without a boosted US presence, the US could be dragged into a regional confrontation via its partners.At a minimum, Hayton said a conflict would trigger disruptions to shipping, supply lines, and supply chains and hurt the region's economic growth, "even before we start to think about military actions."A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2016_en.pdf">estimated</a> to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28048/w28048.pdf">working paper</a> by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.<h2 id="aba6b3de-fedf-479e-9f6f-ff50a1a9a19a">Escalating tensions</h2>Tensions in the region have been escalating over the past few months, especially between China and the Philippines.A month after the armed encounter, China's largest coastguard vessel <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijings-monster-coastguard-ship-ramps-up-tensions-south-china-sea-2024-7">dropped anchor</a> in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and in August, a Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1828077854539874574">said</a> China had deployed 40 vessels to block the delivery of supplies to its soldiers stationed in the contested Sabina Shoal.Earlier this week, the Philippines <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bfar.da.gov.ph/2024/10/09/da-bfar-statement-on-the-recent-ccg-water-cannon-incident-in-bajo-de-masinloc/">said</a> three Chinese Coast Guard vessels and a navy ship fired water cannons toward two civilian vessels while they were on a routine resupply mission in the West Philippine Sea.<div type="image" title="A Philippine coast guard vessel and a Chinese coast guard vessel during an incident in&#xa0;the South&#xa0;China&#xa0;Sea on August 19, 2024." height="1125" width="2000" msid="114167292" hostid="261" sizebytes="36066"></div>Poling described these as "the most violent months in the South China Sea since 1988," and added that the Philippines' "natural" response would be to seek help from its treaty ally, the US.Under a Mutual Defense <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20177/volume-177-I-2315-English.pdf">Treaty</a> signed in 1951, the US must come to the Philippines' aid in the event of an armed attack — something China has carefully avoided by conducting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a>.In an interview with CBS News <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">60 Minutes</a> last month, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro said that there were ongoing discussions about what scenarios would prompt the US to get involved.Meanwhile, according to Poling, China's official position is that everything the Philippines does is because the US made it do it."That's one of the things that makes this so hard to deescalate," he said.A war with China in the South China Sea is a prospect the US would likely want to avoid at all costs, given the ongoing conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East."But there's no world in which the US can sit on the sidelines, watch China potentially kill Filipinos in Philippine waters, and do nothing," Poling added.

Efforts by the US to counter China in the South China Sea could backfire

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword>'s Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> has launched a series of devastating attacks on <keyword id="19925799" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hezbollah" source="keywords">Hezbollah</keyword>.</li><li>He has rejected or ignored a series of attempts by the US to head off a wider conflict.</li></ul>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is rapidly escalating Israel's campaign against its regional foes, and trampling on US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-warns-israel-dont-make-same-mistakes-sept-11-hamas-2023-10">diplomatic efforts</a> in the process. In the latest sign he is ignoring US warnings, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-special-forces-launch-raids-into-lebanon-ahead-of-possible-ground-incursion-bf2fe94d?mod=hp_lead_pos1">The Wall Street Journal reported</a> that Israeli special operations forces were carrying out raids into southern Lebanon ahead of a possible ground incursion this week. The raids were aimed at gathering intelligence and discovering Hezbollah's weakness, the Journal said. Amir Avivi, a former senior Israeli military official, told the publication that a <keyword id="19974385" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ground-invasion" source="keywords">ground invasion</keyword> is imminent, a major escalation that Israeli officials have been threatening for months. "The IDF has made a lot of preparations for a ground incursion," Avivi said. "Overall, this always includes special operations. This is part of the process." The raids follow an unprecedented series of strikes from Israel. In the early hours of Monday, Israel struck central Beirut for the first time since 2006. It also confirmed it had killed Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, a Hamas leader, in Lebanon. That came after the assassination of Hezbollah's top leader, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netanyahu-tricked-nasrallah-with-un-speech-official-says-2024-9" target="_blank">Hassan Nasrallah</a>, in a massive explosion in a suburb of Beirut on Friday, which dramatically raised the stakes of Israel's yearlong war against Iran-backed militias in the wake of the October 7 terrorist attacks. Israel's stepped-up campaign against Hezbollah could be preparations for a ground invasion of Lebanon, and it risks triggering another direct confrontation with Iran. <h2>US attempts to deter a wider war</h2>US President Joe <keyword id="19918394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Biden" source="keywords">Biden</keyword> has long been seeking to prevent Israel's campaign against Hamas in Gaza from spiraling into a bigger war, potentially dragging in the US and regional powers. However, some critics have claimed his approach has failed because the US-supplied arms have allowed Netanyahu's embattled government to continue escalating and widening the war. "Without <keyword id="20040842" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-support" source="keywords">US support</keyword>, this war would not have been possible," Gilbert Achcar, Professor of International Relations at SOAS University of London told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZ6F4SGQPQg">France 24</a>. "It's actually the joint US-Israeli war." "It's not so much the Israelis who are treating him as an irrelevance," Jasmine El-Galal, who was a Pentagon advisor during the Obama administration, told <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/world/netanyahu-torched-hopes-ceasefire-watched-powerlessly-3300370" target="_blank">The Independent</a>. "It's that Biden is not actually trying seriously to effect any change. He's been complaining about Netanyahu for almost a year now," she said, "but in the meantime, the US continues to send arms and funds to Israel." The US last week appeared to have been on the brink of negotiating a cross-border ceasefire between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-likely-used-bunker-buster-bombs-strike-kill-hezbollah-chief-2024-9">Israel and Hezbollah</a> — but just 24 hours later Israel assassinated Nasrallah. It was a strike that, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-killed-hezbollahs-leader-in-underground-bunker-52946d6d?mod=hp_trendingnow_article_pos1">The Journal, shocked</a> US officials. The publication, citing unnamed US officials, said Israel did not tip off its most important ally about the strike before it was carried out. The White House described the killing as "a measure of justice for his many victims," though again urged against further escalation. Hezbollah was involved in the 1983 bombings of the US Embassy in Beirut and the US Marine Corps barracks. <div type="image" title="img66fa8d0b7518aa57bc9f1ddd" height="683" width="1024" msid="113823951" hostid="261" sizebytes="49606" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Beirut after Israel&amp;#39;s assassination of Hezbollah&amp;#39;s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>"We are shocked," one US official told CNN after Netanyahu rejected the ceasefire proposal before Israel launched the all-out attacks. It's the latest in a series of incidents in which the Israeli leader has ignored or rejected President Joe Biden's attempts to restrain Israeli military action in Gaza and, more recently, Lebanon. <h2>Netanyahu believes he is 'winning the war'</h2>A former British military chief said that may be because Netanyahu believes that he is winning the war in the Middle East. General Lord Richard Dannatt told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://news.sky.com/story/body-of-hezbollah-leader-hassan-nasrallah-recovered-in-tact-from-attack-site-in-beirut-13224541">Sky News </a>on Sunday that Netanyahu believes he can "press on" with the conflict. "A ground invasion of Lebanon is increasingly threatened," he told the outlet. He said the US has been urging Israel to pull back but hasn't been doing enough to "effectively" stop Netanyahu. "It is still supplying weapons and a lot of the stuff that Israel needs," Dannatt said. "On the one hand. the US is calling for restraint, but on the other. they are not effectively stopping Netanyahu, and he believes that he is winning this war." <h2>Ignoring red lines</h2>The US is by far the biggest supplier of arms to Israel. According to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cfr.org/article/us-aid-israel-four-charts">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, since the start of Israel's war with Hamas on October 7, 2023, the US has put in place legislation providing at least $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel. Overall, since 2009, it has provided Israel with $3.4 billion in funding for missile defense, including $1.3 billion in the development of Israel's Iron Dome system, according to figures from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-israel/">Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.</a> It's a big trading partner outside of arms, too. US exports to Israel last year amounted to just over $14 billion, per figures from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/israel#:~:text=United%20States%20Exports%20to%20Israel%20was%20US%2414.03%20Billion%20during,COMTRADE%20database%20on%20international%20trade.">United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.</a> Despite this, Netanyahu has ignored a series of red lines from Biden over how Israel conducts its campaign and rejected US pressure to reach a cease-fire deal with Hamas. <a target="_blank" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/author/sarah-leah-whitson/">Sarah Leah Whitson</a>, the executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now, in an article for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/18/biden-israel-icc-icj-gaza-netanyahu-international-law/">Foreign Policy in September, </a>argued that Biden's reluctance to hold Israel to account was undermining the rules-based international order the president claims to champion. Some are claiming that as his term in office coming to an end, Biden is giving up. The White House has pushed back against these claims. "No, he absolutely hasn't given up," White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr4xnq2zqlgo">told CNN </a>about reaching a deal to end the war in Gaza last week. After the devastating blows Israel has dealt to its enemies in recent days, exposing the limits of their power and the reach of Israeli intelligence and weapons, Netanyahu likely believes that the impetus is with him. But a widening conflict would likely not come to a conclusion quickly, US officials are warning. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned in the wake of last week's collapsed US peace effort that if Israel rejects diplomacy, it will result in "greater instability and insecurity, the ripples of which will be felt around the world." "The choices that all parties make in coming days will determine which path this region is on with profound consequences for its people now and possibly for years to come,"Blinken said. Correction: September 30, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the name of a former Pentagon advisor. It's Jasmine El-Gamal, not Jazmine El-Galal.

Israeli commandos raid Lebanon — the latest sign Netanyahu is ignoring Biden's warnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The relationship between Trump and Putin has long been a source of controversy.</li><li>Analysts say Trump could broker a Ukraine peace deal on terms favorable to Russia.</li></ul>With only a month to go before the presidential election, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-touts-russia-army-history-justify-deal-putin-over-ukraine-2024-9">Donald Trump's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> has once again come under the spotlight.In a forthcoming book, journalist <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-woodward-trump-unparalleled-danger-democracy-president-2022-10">Bob Woodward</a> says that the former president and Putin have a closer friendship than previously known.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-putin-woodward-book-secret-covid-tests-seven-calls-2024-10">excerpts</a> published by CNN and the Washington Post on Tuesday, Trump sent Putin COVID testing devices in early 2020 for his personal use.The book also says that Trump may have had up to seven phone calls with Putin since leaving office in 2021, citing a Trump aide.The Trump campaign denied the report, with spokesman Steve Cheung claiming it is "the work of a truly demented and deranged man who suffers from a debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome."The Kremlin on Tuesday<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-covid-testing-devices-phone-calls-kremlin-rcna174632"> said </a>that Russia received the COVID-19 testing kits, though added that Russia sent kits to the US in return. It denied <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-says-trump-sent-putin-covid-tests-pandemic-denies-calls-2024-10">the seven calls that Woodward said Trump had with Putin.</a>While speculation and criticism about Trump's relationship with Russia's autocratic leader are nothing new, they are taking on a new significance amid the possibility of a second Trump presidency.<h2 id="ca1622e9-b987-46c8-878b-d263ec452e14">The Trump-Putin relationship</h2>Only weeks before Trump took office after his presidential victory, his administration-in-waiting was rocked by the publication of a dossier prepared by a former British spy.The report said that the Kremlin had secured compromising information that it could use to blackmail Trump.Trump's legal team said the dossier contained inaccurate information and that it breached his data protection rights.A subsequent inquiry by Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of coordination between Putin and the Trump campaign.<div type="image" title="Robert Mueller, who headed the FBI for 12 years, speaks into a microphone." height="2316" width="3500" msid="114090479" hostid="261" sizebytes="235904"></div>Throughout his presidency, however, Trump appeared friendly toward Putin and was reluctant to criticize Russia over reports of interference in the 2016 US presidential election.Trump has continued to praise Putin for being <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-praised-smart-putin-us-stupid-country-2022-2">"smart" </a>and<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-justification-genius-savvy-2022-2"> "genius"</a> after he began his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine."I'd say that's pretty smart. He's taking over a country – really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/american_bridge/status/1496682759208775683?s=21">said</a> in 2022.<h2 id="8940f3b3-81cf-4fcd-b657-4036ec84ba83">A Ukraine deal</h2>The US, under President Joe Biden, has provided billions in aid to Ukraine to battle the invasion launched by Russia in 2022, which the president has characterized<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-normandy-d-day-ukraine-unchecked-tyranny/"> as a fight between</a> the forces of democracy and tyranny.Yet Trump has questioned why the US is helping Ukraine defend itself and had urged Republicans in Congress to block a Ukraine aid bill earlier this year, resulting in Ukraine suffering ammunition shortages.He has claimed that he'd be able to swiftly negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia if he became president.And though he's offered few details on how, a peace plan suggested by his running mate, JD Vance, on a podcast <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4884798-the-trump-vance-plan-for-ukraine-is-insane/">in September indicates </a>that it'd involve Ukraine ceding the territory Russia holds and pledging neutrality.Trump could hypothetically compel Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to the deal or face US aid being cut off.Critics say it's a deal that would likely delight the Kremlin and infuriate US allies in Europe and beyond. It could also come back to haunt the US.<h2 id="8ad46fa4-95d4-47d5-919b-551c0fc2121b">There could be catastrophic consequences</h2>Philip Ingram, a former UK military intelligence officer, told Business Insider that a Trump deal with Putin that involved ceding Ukrainian territory could have catastrophic effects."I think if Trump forces Zelenskyy into a peace deal where he has to give up any territory, then that will stimulate the start of World War Three, and it will happen within a relatively short period of time," he said."And the economic impact that that will have across the globe will be enormous."The Ukraine war has already roiled markets for food, oil, gas, and other products, and wider conflict could have an even more devastating impact.Economist Kenneth Rogoff in an article for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/the-long-lasting-economic-shock-of-war">The International Monetary Fund</a> warned that the war is worsening "rising inflation, extreme poverty, increasing food insecurity, deglobalization, and worsening environmental degradation."William Pomerantz, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, told BI a deal would hugely damage US alliances."Trump believes that he can end the war in Ukraine in a week, but that would require conceding to all of Putin's demands," he said."That would essentially end our alliance with Europe and our international credibility."<h2 id="62871981-d67f-4884-a229-94adfdbc3ed3">Empowering China</h2>Some Republicans, including Vance, say the US needs to shift its stance away from helping Ukraine battle Russian aggression toward the more urgent threat they say China poses.Yet analysts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vance-trump-wants-us-focus-china-russia-one-big-problem-2024-7">told BI in July </a>that China's threat is closely linked to Russia's, with Putin and fellow Chinese autocrat Xi Jinping having formed a pact to weaken US global dominance.A Russian victory in Ukraine would likely embolden Xi to launch an invasion of US ally Taiwan, said Ingram.<div type="image" title="Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping talking." height="3452" width="5402" msid="114090480" hostid="261" sizebytes="395676"></div>If Xi believes that the West has "given in" regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine despite the money and diplomatic effort spent trying to defeat Russia, "we would very quickly see his invasion of Taiwan," he said.European leaders have also issued stark warnings that Russia, emboldened by its territorial victory in Ukraine, could seek to attack a NATO state in as little as five years.Spiralling conflicts in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East would have a devastating economic impact.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> CEO Jamie Dimon warned last month that investors are overlooking geopolitcal tensions as key risk that could significantly weaken the global economy."Geopolitics is getting worse, they are not getting better. There is chance for accidents in energy supply. God knows if other countries get involved. You have a lot of war taking place right now," Dimon told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-geopolitics-is-getting-worse.html">CNBC-TV18</a> during a visit to India.Dimon said that if geopolitical tensions elevate to instability and conflict, it will drag down the stock market in a way that pales in comparison to prior market crashes.<h2 id="cccccb09-431b-470e-9b1b-e688d2ce7308">Trump's words and actions differ</h2>Ingram pointed out that there has in the past been a gap between Trump's words and actions, and questioned whether Trump would be willing to risk the economic blowback on the US of canceling Ukraine aid, with arms manufacturing firms in swing states such as Pennsylvania massively boosted by the Congressional aid bills."What we're hearing from him, from a political perspective, but what he'd actually practically do will be different," said Ingram.It is also unclear Trump would continue to impose sanctions on Russia if he becomes president."It's much harder to predict him on that stuff," William Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tough-u-s-sanctions-packages-are-here-to-staywhether-its-harris-or-trump-11f884ba">The Wall Street Journal</a> in August. "I would say [he is] sort of inconstant. He tends to veer from one thing to another.'"Either way, Trump will have to deal with economic problems at home, including record debt levels and surging interest payments.Trump's economic plans are estimated to raise the federal debt level by double the figure expected if Kamala Harris is elected, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/CRFB_US%20Budget%20Watch%202024_The%20Fiscal%20Impact%20of%20the%20Harris%20and%20Trump%20Campaign%20Plans_Final_10062024.pdf">report</a> out this week.Harris would add $3.5 trillion to the projected fiscal debt through 2035, while Trump would add $7.5 trillion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> analysis said."Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis," it added.If elected for a second term, Trump has pledged to purge the US government of those he deems disloyal to his agenda if reelected and could surround himself with loyalists rather than career officials seeking to check his more impulsive decisions.Pomeranz said that Trump's policies in a second term would more openly reflect his admiration for Russia's leader, regardless of the US' economic plight."Putin is the autocratic leader that Trump most admires," he said. "Trump will present any end of hostilities [in Ukraine] as a personal victory, and Putin will validate this."

Trump's close relationship with Putin could come back to haunt the US

On July 13, shortly after Donald Trump was targeted by an assassination attempt, <keyword id="19903807" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Elon-Musk" source="keywords">Elon Musk</keyword>, the billionaire owner of X (formerly Twitter), tweeted to his 200 million+ followers: I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery. Musk's efforts to influence who wins next week's US presidential election have continued. For example, over the past three months, he has donated more than US$100 million to a political action committee called America PAC that's promoting Trump. Shortly after Musk endorsed Trump's presidential campaign, there was a statistically anomalous boost in engagement with his X account. Suddenly, his posts were getting much higher views, retweets, and likes in comparison to other prominent political accounts on the platform. This raises suspicions as to whether Musk has tweaked the platform's algorithm to increase the reach of his posts in advance of the US presidential election. It also demonstrates the problems with how <keyword id="19897919" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="social-media" source="keywords">social media</keyword> platforms like X are currently regulated around the world. <h2>Not the first time</h2>Musk has a history when it comes to tweaking X's algorithms so his content reaches more people. Last year, he reportedly mobilized a team of around 80 engineers to algorithmically boost his posts. This came after his tweet supporting the Philadelphia Eagles during the Super Bowl was outperformed by a similar one from President Joe Biden. Musk seemed to confirm this happened, posting a picture depicting one woman labeled "Elon's tweets" forcibly bottle-feeding another woman labeled "Twitter." To see whether Musk has done this again in the lead-up to the <keyword id="20204585" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-election" source="keywords">US election</keyword>, we compared Musk's engagement metrics—such as the number of views, retweets, and likes—with a set of other prominent political accounts on the social media platform. The data spans the period from January 1, 2024, to October 25, 2024. Other political accounts that served as a basis of comparison include those of right-wing commentators Jack Posobiec, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump Jr. The study also examined accounts at the other end of the political spectrum, including those of US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, US Senator Bernie Sanders, and Vice-President Kamala Harris. <h2> A sudden and significant increase</h2>Since July, engagement with Musk's X account has seen a sudden and significant increase. The view counts for his posts increased by 138%, retweets by 238%, and likes by 186%. In contrast, other prominent political accounts on X saw more moderate increases: 57% in view counts, 152% in retweets, and 130% in likes. This suggests that while engagement went up for all accounts after July, Musk's metrics saw a particularly large boost, particularly in retweets and likes. The research further found that since July, other conservative and right-wing X accounts have performed better in terms of visibility of posts compared to progressive and left-wing accounts. Without backstage access to the workings of the company, it is impossible to know for sure whether changes to its curation system are boosting its owner's posts. The platform has limited the access it provides to researchers since Musk took over. However, the Washington Post recently found that tweets from Republicans are far more likely to go viral, receiving billions more views than those from Democrats. Similarly, an investigation by the Wall Street Journal revealed that new users to the platform "are being blanketed with political content" that disproportionately favors Trump. Since Musk purchased the platform, it has become more congenial to figures on the right, including people who were previously banned for spreading harmful and false information. <h2>The myth of neutrality</h2>The findings raise the question of the extent to which Musk's influential social media platform is reinforcing its owner's political agenda. Musk, whose businesses have extensive government contracts, has made a public and financial spectacle of his unabashed support of Trump. The billionaire tech tycoon is reportedly Trump's second-biggest financial donor. He also promoted Trump in a glitchy live interview on X and authored a stream of tweets promoting Trump's campaign. Musk is also handing out $1 million a day to selected registered voters. This plan (which has met with questions over its legality) aims to boost <keyword id="20759059" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voter-registration" source="keywords">voter registration</keyword> among sympathizers in swing states. Musk's actions have torpedoed the fantasy that social media platforms such as X are neutral. Given he has previously tweaked X's algorithm to amplify the reach of his posts, it would be surprising if he were not tilting the platform in favor of Trump, whom he believes is "the path to prosperity." For too long, social media platforms have enjoyed immunity for the information they selectively inject into users' feeds. It's time for governments to reconsider their approach to regulating the oligopolistic power over our information environment wielded by a handful of tech billionaires.

Tech billionaire Elon Musk's social media posts have had a 'sudden boost' since July, new research reveals

<ul class="summary-list"><li>It sure seems like <keyword id="19959118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Twitter" source="keywords">Twitter</keyword> is more likely to show content from <keyword id="20052066" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Republican" source="keywords">Republican</keyword> or right-wing accounts.</li><li>That's the conclusion from two new reports in The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.</li></ul>Is X, the service many of us still call <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter">Twitter</a>, more likely to show users political posts from Republicans, or right-leaning accounts? Yes. Probably. That's the conclusion from two different deep dives published in The Washington Post and The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/x-twitter-political-content-election-2024-28f2dadd?mod=hp_lead_pos3">Wall Street Journal</a> on Tuesday. Next question: Is Twitter doing this intentionally, at the behest of owner <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a>? That one is harder to answer. Both questions matter, obviously, because we're a week away from the <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword>. And while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-advertisers-cannes-speech-tweets-twitter-x-peter-kafka-2024-6">Twitter has become a financial disaster under Musk's ownership</a>, it still remains an important news hub for many millions of people. Meanwhile, Musk, who used to support Democrats, has thrown himself completely behind Donald <keyword id="19906203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Trump" source="keywords">Trump</keyword>'s campaign. He says "<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1840409051357696324">Democracy is over</a>" if Trump loses. Neither the Journal nor the Post want to draw a direct line between Musk's politics and Twitter's operations. But there are certainly some suggestions of dotted lines. I've asked Twitter for comment. The details: Both papers used software to analyze what users see on Twitter. The Post looked at a year-plus of tweets from top congressional accounts; the Journal created 14 brand-new Twitter accounts, controlled by bots and spread throughout the US. The Post's conclusion: Tweets from congressional accounts across the spectrum are getting less attention than they did a year ago. But Republican tweets are much more likely to go viral than Democrats. The Journal's findings don't exactly sync with the Post. It finds that its theoretical new users, who told Twitter they are not interested in politics, saw their feeds clogged with <keyword id="20531476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="political-content" source="keywords">political content</keyword> anyway. And while it says Kamala Harris' campaign was the most-seen account, the platform skewed right overall: "Ten of the other top 14 most-seen leaned right, including Trump's, and overall, pro-Trump content appeared about twice as frequently as pro-Harris material." What accounts for the right-leaning shift? Neither paper wants to say definitively. But they both hover around two possibilities, which aren't mutually exclusive: Theory 1: Twitter is showing users what users want to see. That's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1807089883602956465">the argument Musk makes himself.</a> And there is decent logic behind it. For starters, even before Musk bought Twitter,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2025334119"> its own researchers found that the "political right enjoys higher amplification compared to the political left"</a> on the platform. And it's entirely plausible that some left-leaning users have left the platform during Musk's ownership, in part because he reinstated accounts from right-leaning users, including Trump himself. Conservatives may also be flocking to it for the same reason. And those users may be more likely to engage with right-leaning content, prompting the site's algorithm to show them more of it — the same way all social media sites generally work with popular content. Theory 2: Twitter is showing users what Musk wants them to see. This is a notion that some current and former Twitter users believe, though there's no direct proof that it's the case. But there is plenty of precedent for it, since Musk has repeatedly moved the platform according to his whims in the past. Most famously, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/musk-changed-twitter-algorithm-tweets-didnt-get-attention-book-2024-2">Musk ordered engineers to highlight his own tweets after the 2023 Super Bowl</a>, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.platformer.news/">Platformer's</a> Zoe Schiffer has reported. Musk has also used the site to host interviews with political figures he's interested in, including a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/desantis-campaign-launch-on-twitter-spaces-off-to-gltichy-start-2023-5">buggy chat with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2023</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzWjFzRMQNA">one with Trump this summer</a>. The Journal also reports that "more recently, Musk complained that a fraction of users saw his livestreams," and compelled his engineers to promote those chats on the site. Correction: October 29, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misattributed the detail about Musk complaining about his livestream views. The Journal reported it, not the Post.

You Searched For "us politics" and got 11 results

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Watching TikTok videos with my teen keeps us connected. We've had thoughtful conversations thanks to social media.

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Trump's Pentagon pick criticized US involvement in Ukraine, said Putin probably wouldn't go 'much further' if he wins

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My husband and I moved from the US to Canada 13 years ago. We love the free healthcare here and the great friends we made.

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Sophie Turner says American politics made it too hard to cope with living in the US

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A US invasion of Taiwan in WWII would have been a disaster. A Chinese operation faces similar dangers.

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Efforts by the US to counter China in the South China Sea could backfire

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Israeli commandos raid Lebanon — the latest sign Netanyahu is ignoring Biden's warnings

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Trump's close relationship with Putin could come back to haunt the US

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Tech billionaire Elon Musk's social media posts have had a 'sudden boost' since July, new research reveals

PTI

Elon Musk is backing Trump. Is Musk's Twitter backing Trump, too?

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