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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The record stock market rally will get a boost from key economic data and earnings results, Ed Yardeni said.</li><li>Second-quarter GDP and June PCE releases on Thursday and Friday could fuel the soft landing narrative.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-rare-bullish-signal-flashed-signals-more-upside-2024-7">stock market rally is set to continue</a> this week as investors digest two key pieces of economic data and an onslaught of second-quarter earnings results.That's according to a Monday note from Yardeni Research, which highlighted the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-tech-stocks-drive-rebound-key-q2-earnings-2024-7">upcoming release of second-quarter GDP and the June PCE index</a> as key to the continuation of the stock market rally."We expect that a solid print in Q2's real GDP on Thursday and a subdued June PCED inflation reading on Friday will keep the rally going," Ed Yardeni said in the note.Economists estimate second-quarter GDP growth to hit 1.9%, and June Core PCE to rise 2.5% year-over-year, not far off from the Fed's long-term inflation target of 2%.If the economic data comes in as expected, it would enable continued chatter of a soft landing in the US economy and give the Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-fed-interest-rate-cuts-soft-landing-inflation-powell-su-2024-7">even more reason to cut interest rates</a> at its September policy meeting. And while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-charts-valuations-breadth-sp500-outlook-hussman-2024-6">bearish investors argue that the market is too overvalued</a> for the rally to continue and that stocks are in bubble territory similar to the dot-com era, Yardeni Research disagrees.That's because the stock market's record rally in is supported by underlying company earnings in a way that it wasn't 24 years ago."We've acknowledged that the current stock market rally is reminiscent of the valuation-led market meltup of the 1990s. But we've also noted that the current bull market has more support from earnings," Yardeni said.The research firm highlighted that the combined <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> allocation to the information technology and communication services sectors is at 41%, similar to its peak in 2000.But whereas those two sectors represented less than a quarter of the S&amp;P 500's earnings at the peak of the dot-com bubble, today those two technology-focused sectors make up one-third of the S&amp;P 500's forward earnings per share.<div type="image" title="S&amp;P 500 earnings comparison" height="606" width="1110" msid="111967072" hostid="261" sizebytes="52594"></div>What's encouraging to Yardeni is the fact that second-quarter earnings are already delivering.With 16% of S&amp;P 500 companies having reported second-quarter earnings so far, 84% are beating profit estimates by a median of 4%, while 63% are beating revenue estimates by a median of 3%, according to data from Fundstrat."So far, Q2's earnings reporting season is going well. The blended reported/estimated earnings growth rate for the S&amp;P 500 has stopped its recent fall and edged up to 8.2% y/y during the July 18 week. We are expecting 10%-12% y/y," Yardeni said.Looking forward, Yardeni expects the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-roaring-20s-rapid-growth-stock-market-analysis-ed-yardeni-2024-1">to print significant growth in its earnings per share over the next few years.</a>"We're expecting S&amp;P 500 earnings per share of $250, $270, and $300 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. We're a bit more bullish than the industry analysts' consensus this year, but less so in the coming two years. We still see S&amp;P 500 EPS reaching $400 by the end of the decade," Yardeni said.Finally, Yardeni highlighted that profit margins continue to trend higher to near record highs, suggesting that earnings and economic growth will continue to impress in the second and third quarters.

The stock market is approaching 2 catalysts that will spark the next leg of the bull run, market vet says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A number of bank research desks have raised their S&amp;P 500 price targets in recent weeks.</li><li>The adjustments come as the index continues its bull market run, up 3% in the last month and 23% this year.</li></ul>The bull market hasn't weakened in the fourth quarter, and top bank research desks have been rushing to raise their S&amp;P 500 price targets into year-end. Strategists from Goldman Sachs, UBS, BMO, and Deutsche Bank have raised their year-end price targets on the S&amp;P 500 in recent weeks as the benchmark index continues to hit record highs. On Monday, it notched its 46th all-time high of 2024. UBS strategists Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey upped their 5,600 price target to 5,850 for the end of the year, marking their fourth upgrade since late last year.The target is just slightly above the level the index is trading at on Wednesday, but the analysts forecast a 9% rise in the next 15 months and raised their target for 2025 from 6,000 to 6,400 in a note on Tuesday. Earlier this month, meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its target on the index to 6,000 by December, marking the fourth increase since late last year. The call, from the firm's chief equity strategist David Kostin, is the second highest among those tracked by Bloomberg.Kostin said the estimates were driven by a steady macro outlook and greater margin expansion."The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said, adding, "The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth."Kostin's price target is just behind that of BMO's chief equity strategist, Brian Belski, who raised his forecast from 5,600 to 6,100 last month. Belski's new target implies a nearly 5% gain through the rest of this year.Belski said his upgrade was based on strong market gains so far this year, which he says typically leads to stronger-than-normal gains in the fourth quarter."We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted," Belski said in a note.He added that Federal Reserve easing and a broadening market rally will only help fuel further gains.Deutsche Bank also raised its year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 last month, up to 5,750 from 5,500. The bank's strategists pointed to strong corporate earnings and inflows, rising stock buybacks, and higher risk sentiment."We see S&amp;P 500 earnings growth continuing to run robustly in the low double digits, in line with typical growth rates outside of recessions," the strategists said in a note.The strategists' target raises come amid a chorus of strategists turning decidedly more upbeat on the market. JPMorgan's chief equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wall-street-biggest-bear-jpmorgan-stock-market-outlook-interest-rates-2024-10">recently recommended</a> investors should get less defensive after a strong September jobs report."While it is too soon to assume that this is a turning point, it does suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near term, especially since surprisingly strong job growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate broke a slowing trend in the job market," he said in a note earlier this month.Lakos-Bujas kept his 4,200 price target for the S&amp;P 500 unchanged, though.The more upbeat 2024 forecasts come as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">bull market charges on</a>, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.2% in the last month and 22.6% this year. Several risks persist, though, with the upcoming US presidential election in November, an unclear trajectory of monetary policy easing from the Fed as economic data comes in mixed, and as war in the Middle East continues to threaten stability in the region and beyond."Fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty, and potential election outcomes, make 2025 returns far from certain," UBS analysts said.

Top Wall Street analysts are boosting stock market forecasts as the bull market charges on

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy is on solid footing with cooling inflation and continued growth.</li><li>Yet, the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with analysts divided over how long the bull rally can run. </li></ul>Things are looking great for the US economy.Inflation is falling, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employee-productivity-booming-workers-jobs-ai-stock-market-gdp-2024-3">productivity is rising,</a> and the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy, which should act as a tailwind for economic growth.Economists have shifted from arguing about a potential recession to forecasting whether a "soft landing" or "no landing" is more likely. It seems the debate is simply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-new-economic-supercycle-growth-inflation-stock-market-global-chaos-2024-10">about how fast the economy can grow from here.</a>But the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with major Wall Street banks still divided on whether stock prices have further room to run.Stocks are trading near record highs, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> on track to deliver back-to-back annual gains of more than 20%.Among the top analysts at Wall Street banks, there's some disagreement about whether all of the good news is priced in already or if the market can continue to rise beyond already lofty valuations. On the one hand, most see the gains set to continue, pushing past election uncertainty and continuing to lift stocks into 2025. However, beyond that timeline, uncertainty builds and outlooks get murky. Here's what Wall Street is saying about the prospects for the stock market heading into 2025 and beyond.<h2 id="62a39dfb-29e2-437a-b286-98b65dca264e">The Bulls</h2>A slew of Wall Street banks are chasing the record rally in the stock market this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">boosting their S&amp;P 500 year-end price targets</a> to play catch-up.Strategists at UBS <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-us-economy-no-landing-ubs-2024-10">increased their S&amp;P 500 price targets</a> in a note last week, expecting the S&amp;P 500 to hit 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 at the end of next year.That represents potential upside of 8% and 13%, respectively.UBS CIO head of US equities David Lefkowitz said "healthy" earnings growth will pave the way for further stock gains."Third-quarter earnings season has started on a positive note with bank management teams highlighting that consumer spending remains healthy and consistent with normal economic growth," Lefkowitz said.The bank said improving inflation, more Fed rate cuts, and accelerating investment in artificial intelligence should all help support the stock market next year.Strength begets more strength, and that's a big part of BMO strategist Brian Belski's bullish outlook for stocks into 2025.Belski <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bmo-raises-year-end-sp500-price-target-2024-9">increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,100</a> from 5,600 last month, making him one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street."We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted," Belski said in the note.He's also encouraged by the broadening out of the stock market rally, as it's no longer concentrated in a handful of tech giants. That's healthy behavior for sustainable stock market gains, according to the note."This is a trend we expect to continue and should help to support future market gains even if the price and fundamental performance of Mag-X stocks continues to decelerate in the months ahead," Belski said.<h2 id="fc7c3d7b-c8d5-4665-bd3c-1c08a92b6ce4">The Bears</h2>The bearish strategists on Wall Street are sticking to their views even after being wrong all year. Their top worry is the potential for fewer interest rate cuts than expected and growing hype in AI that might fail to deliver.JPMorgan strategists have held firm to their bearish S&amp;P 500 year-end price target of 4,200, which represents potential downside of 28% from current levels.In a note earlier this month, JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas admitted that a recession appears off the table but said that AI investments are unlikely to pay off with lingering questions around monetization issues.Additionally, investor expectations of a Federal Reserve that is about to embark on a string of interest rate cuts could be disappointed if the economy continues to stay resilient, as it would limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, likely putting downward pressure on stock prices.Finally, JPMorgan warned in a note on Monday that third-quarter earnings have seen a flurry of estimate downgrades as sell-side analysts lower their expectations."Earnings downgrades have been significant," JPMorgan said, adding that they "appear to be worsening."Stifel strategist Barry Bannister has warned investors about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp500-prediction-bubble-overvalued-stifel-outlook-2024-10">a potential plunge in the stock market in 2025.</a>Elevated valuations, unfounded expectations for more Fed rate cuts, and hype for AI that ultimately falls short of expectations could create a perfect storm for lower stock prices next year."We took a clean sheet look at the equity market and came away with the same smh (shaking my head) emoji reaction. Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S&amp;P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," Bannister said.While the strategist admitted that a "mania" could take hold in the market and push stock prices even higher from here, it will ultimately end with a crescendo and then a fresh swing to the downside."Sure, we can cherry-pick with the best of them and apply the most over-valued cyclically adjusted valuation level of the past 35 years to show about 10% further upside, but that same analysis of a century of manias also returns the S&amp;P 500 in 2025 to where 2024 began (down 26% from that prospective peak)," Bannister said.<h2 id="1f44d16a-28c8-40a7-bee1-9a426c3bf02e">Somewhere in between</h2>Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin is bullish, at least in the short term.The bank's chief stock strategist recently increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,000 on the prospect of further growth in corporate earnings. "The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said. "The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth."And yet, Kostin also argues that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">a golden era of stock market returns is probably over</a>. In a note over the weekend, Kostin issued his 10-year forecast for the stock market. He said that a combination of extreme market concentration and high valuations suggests the S&amp;P 500 will deliver annualized returns of just 3% over the next 10 years. That's compared to the S&amp;P 500's annualized return of about 13% over the past 10 years."Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are towards the lower end of their typical performance distribution relative to bonds and inflation," Kostin said.Goldman also sees stocks struggling relative to other assets over the next decade. The bank says the S&amp;P 500 has about a 72% chance of trailing bond-market returns and a 33% probability of lagging inflation through 2034.His long-term view aligns with other bears who fret that the coming decade will look much worse than the last. Stifel's Bannister has also argued for a "lost decade" for the stock market.

Wall Street is divided on the future of stocks. Here are bull and bear cases from the biggest banks.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market has surged since October 2022, with major indexes posting strong gains.</li><li>With the bull market in stocks now two years old, investors are wondering how long the rally can last.</li></ul>The stock market bottomed on October 12, 2022, marking two years since the start of the ongoing bull rally. Since then, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> have posted impressive gains of 88%, 62%, and 46%, respectively.A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-goldman-unemployment-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-rates-2024-10">resilient job market,</a> lower inflation, and continued corporate earnings growth helped push the stock market higher over the past two years.So, what's in store for the bull market from here?Here's what market experts told Business Insider about what history says about the bull market's future as it enters its third year. <h2 id="87e38ea9-e2ca-4929-9a94-031a99caf946">Freedom Capital Markets, Jay Woods</h2>Chief global strategist Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets said what's most telling about the current bull market is that very few believed in it in the beginning."I think it's important to preface it with when it started, no one believed it. They just thought it was a bear market rally. And then they doubted that it had legs, and then it was just seven stocks," Woods told Business Insider.He added: "And now, all of a sudden, it is powerful. And I think the momentum is continuing. You got the rate cycle, you got broadening out, we have wind at our sails, and this bull market should last at least another 12, maybe 18 months."Woods said he is encouraged that market leadership is diverse and no longer concentrated in mega-cap technology companies. A recent example is the rotation into utility stocks, which have surged on the AI power demand narrative.A common Wall Street expression is "rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market," and that appears to be playing out."It's good to look back and celebrate two years, but it still feels like the party is just beginning," Woods said.<h2 id="2275e95f-cb77-497d-97ee-938609a82fa6">Carson Group, Ryan Detrick</h2>According to Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick, the bull market in stocks is still young."Although many might think this bull market has gone too far and is getting old, that isn't the case at all. If you look back at history, bull markets last more than five years on average, making this one at two years actually young," Detrick told Business Insider.Detrick said that while he sees more gains ahead, he doesn't expect another big year for returns like in 2023 and so far in 2024, with the S&amp;P 500 delivering gains of 24% and 22%, respectively.Instead, Detrick said that the average gain of a bull market in year three is about 8%, which is right around the average annual return for stocks."All in all, we expect stocks to be up at least low double digits over the next year," Detrick said.<h2 id="71148928-7cd9-413b-8146-f7a06f2d41cb">Baird, Ross Mayfield</h2>Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said the third year of this current bull rally could deliver stronger returns than history suggests because the first two years of the bull delivered underwhelming performance relative to history."The first two years of this bull market have been somewhat muted vs. historical standards, so there is ample opportunity for outperformance of the typical year 3 performance," Mayfield told Business Insider.Mayfield also echoed Detrick's sentiment that the average bull market is over five years long, so he thinks "there is plenty of room to run.""It would not be surprising if year three of the bull market outperformed the typical year three given the rates backdrop, expected earnings growth, and tepid investor sentiment," Mayfield said.<h2 id="d92eafcb-b184-4d6f-927a-142734817da9">US Bank Asset Management, Rob Haworth</h2>Investment strategist Rob Haworth of US Bank Asset Management believes the S&amp;P 500 could surge to 6,480 in its third year of the bull market, representing potential upside of 12%.Haworth's bullish view is backed by what really drives stock prices higher: earnings growth."The key forward metric for market returns remains the pace of earnings growth," Haworth told Business Insider. "As we look ahead, we still see a constructive path."Haworth expects the S&amp;P 500 to deliver $270 in earnings per share next year, representing about 13% growth from 2024 consensus levels."Lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve and soft or no-landing economic scenarios are helping lift growth into next year, supporting further equity market gains," Haworth said.

The stock market's bull rally is 2 years old. Here's what tends to happen next. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note.</li><li>That'll end in either a bubble or a recession, he warned.</li></ul>The bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned.Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider.Hartnett's been <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tech-stocks-magnificent-7-dot-com-1999-bubble-inflation-recession-2024-2">warning for months</a> that stocks are nearing bubble territory. Since October 2022, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> has soared by more than 40%, powered higher by the AI investing craze and a better-than-expected economy.That rally has stalled in recent months, though, with investors starting to fret about <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-food-energy-gas-prices-consumer-price-index-2024-4">stubborn inflation</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-economy-growth-2024-4">slowing growth</a>.The Federal Reserve has also signaled that it's likely to delay cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024, which has further weighed on valuations.Hartnett also said the economy could be headed for a period of stagflation, pointing to Friday's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-april-unemployment-rate-job-growth-wages-2024-5">April jobs report</a> as a key data point.Spring's GDP and consumer price index figures looked "stagflationary," he wrote, adding that the market would likely see a lower-than-expected monthly non-farm payrolls number as "a risk-off print." The 175,000 jobs added was considerably lower than the 238,000 forecast by economists.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stagflation-outlook-tech-stock-rally-risk-recession-inflation-gdp-economy-2024-4">JPMorgan</a> also flagged stagflation — a combination of high inflation and sluggish growth — as a potential threat to the economy this week."While the worry for risk markets is overheating that jeopardizes rate cutting, in contrast to the overheating story, the recent GDP print heads in a stagflationary direction relative to market expectations," a team led by equity strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a research note.Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.While chatter about the threat posed by stagflation is intensifying, the economy looks resilient enough to carry on powering equities higher, she said in a Thursday research note.

Stocks' bull run will end in a bubble or recession, says Bank of America strategist

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! Mondays are probably the best day to start eating healthier. (Can't start a diet on a Friday.) And whatever your goals are, protein will play a key role. A nutrition coach breaks down <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/easy-calculate-how-much-protein-coach-olympians-2024-9">how to figure out how much you need</a>.In today's big story, the stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">So now what</a>?What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Jamie Dimon's retirement <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">doesn't mean his exit from JPMorgan</a>.</li><li>Tech: Roblox investors are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">shrugging off a short-seller's report</a>.</li><li>Business: It's the first day of work for Nike's new CEO. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">Here's what's at stake</a>.</li></ul>But first, time flies when you're making money.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Bullish on the bull market</h2><div type="image" title="Wall Street bull statue" height="4024" width="6048" msid="114217361" hostid="261" sizebytes="1697474"></div>Happy belated birthday to the stock market's bull rally!In case you missed it, Saturday marked two years since stocks bottomed out before going on a run. The Nasdaq 100 (88%), S&amp;P 500 (62%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (46%) have posted strong returns in the two years since.But don't worry about missing the celebration, because the party might be going on for a while. Stock market experts who spoke with Business Insider's Matthew Fox <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">don't see things slowing down anytime soon</a>.In fact, the average bull market lasts longer than five years, so we might not even be halfway to the finish line. There's no consensus on exactly how the next few years will shape up, but the experts agree they don't see a market downturn in the near future.Earnings season, which is in full swing this week, will provide more color on where things are headed. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10">Expectations are high</a>, and for good reason. The S&amp;P 500 has enjoyed year-over-year earnings growth for four consecutive quarters.<div type="image" title="inflation dollar hovers over groceries" height="893" width="1786" msid="114217363" hostid="261" sizebytes="43390"></div>So, what's the case for the bull rally to continue?Past performance does not guarantee future results, so bull runs' history of sticking around doesn't mean this one will.But the first thing to consider is this bull market's resiliency.The past two years have seen multiple banks fail, a bond-market meltdown, and the unwinding of a trade tied to the Japanese yen that sent stocks tumbling. Interest rates also remained elevated as the economy battled high inflation.Beyond the financial markets, things haven't been much calmer. The war in Ukraine rages on, and there's arguably more violence in the Middle East than there has been in decades.Meanwhile, the run-up to the presidential election has been unprecedented. The sitting president shockingly ended his reelection campaign, and another candidate faced multiple assassination attempts.So yes, we've been through a lot, and stocks keep going up and to the right.While I can't guarantee things will calm down, there are some bright spots. There might not be more rate cuts this year, but the job market is strong and inflation is (mostly) under control. Whether we're in a soft landing or a "no landing," both situations are better than a recession, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-recession-outlook-prediction-labor-market-job-additions-interest-rates-2024-10">which seems unlikely at this point</a>.The actual stock market is healthier, too, as it's no longer reliant on the Magnificent Seven's performance. Instead, it's enjoying growth across different sectors, which gives it more immunity from industry-specific shocks.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>SpaceX's Starship <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-starship-fifth-flight-test-how-to-watch-2024-10">completes historic 5th flight test</a>.</li><li>'Let chaos reign': <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-players-startups-ai-inference-driving-prices-down-cheap-workload-2024-10">AI computing costs are about to plummet</a>.</li><li>The professor made porn. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/professor-porn-fired-salacious-free-speech-academic-freedom-2024-10">His firing may shape the future of free speech</a>.</li><li>Elon Musk says <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-launches-california-coastal-commission-2024-10">he will take legal action</a> after California officials cited his politics when rejecting SpaceX launches.</li><li>How Saudi Arabia could create <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-supply-opec-cuts-2024-10">a crisis for Russia's economy</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Jamie Dimon" height="500" width="1000" msid="114217365" hostid="261" sizebytes="20910"></div><ol><li>You can't get rid of Jamie Dimon that easily. The JPMorgan CEO has hinted at plans to step down in the not-so-distant future. But during the bank's earnings call, he also said there is an "almost nil" chance of him joining the next presidential administration as he plans to stay at JPMorgan "for a long period." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">Here's how both things can be true</a>.</li><li>Ken Griffin knows who he's voting for, and he's not happy about it. The billionaire hedge fund manager and Republican megadonor hasn't supported either presidential candidate. The Citadel CEO said he knows who he is voting for, but "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citadel-ken-griffin-election-taxes-florida-2024-10">it's not with a smile on my face</a>."</li><li>BlackRock wants to make alt investments not so alternative. The $11.5 trillion asset manager <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrocks-next-big-bet-private-markets-2024-10">hopes to grow its private markets business</a>, which includes less liquid, more expensive investments with the potential for higher returns. It comes after securing $221 billion in net inflows last quarter, a company record.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Augustus Doricko sits in a desk with a huge American flag on the back wall." height="3739" width="4985" msid="114217359" hostid="261" sizebytes="612242"></div><ol><li>The 24-year-old wunderkind trying to make water out of thin air. With his new company, cloud-seeding startup Rainmaker, <a target="_blank" href="http://businessinsider.com/rainmaker-augustus-doricko-cloud-seeding-el-segundo-2024-10">Augustus Doricko has launched a God-fearing, cigarette-loving tech hub</a> in El Segundo, California. "Respect to Zuck, but I certainly hope the next cohort of people that build great things do it in the real world," Doricko told BI.</li><li>Roblox took an L and bounced back. The gaming platform's stock tumbled after a prominent short-seller accused it of inflating user numbers and failing to protect children from predators. Investors appear undeterred; after the drop, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">Roblox's stock rebounded</a>, with Wall Street focused on its growth potential.</li><li>Twelve AI coding startups to watch. AI coding startups are having a moment as VCs look to invest in tools that automate the boring parts of coding and let developers focus on more creative tasks. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-code-startups-that-have-raised-the-most-vcs-a16z-2024-10">These 12 startups have attracted funding</a> from VCs like a16z and Menlo Ventures.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of expensive Erewhon groceries, receipt, shopping cart, and payment system" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114217368" hostid="261" sizebytes="117578"></div><ol><li>I've been a very brave Gen Zer. I'd like a treat. Inflation's got nothing on Gen Z's love of bougie snacks: Young people splurge on expensive groceries more than any other generation. The reason? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-loves-expensive-groceries-snacks-erewhon-whole-foods-2024-10">Consuming health-conscious food is a show of economic power</a> — and everything else is too expensive.</li><li>Office vacancy may deliver some housing relief. The office sector will experience a wave of distress in coming years, real estate experts told BI. That might be good news for housing supply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-office-outlook-fire-sales-apartment-conversions-housing-2024-10">as former offices get converted to apartments</a>.</li><li>It's Elliott Hill's first day as Nike's CEO. Can he just do it? Nike released its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report on October 1, and revenue declined 10% from the previous year to $11.6 billion. Now, it's up to Hill <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">to lead a full-scale comeback for the brand</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>How rich Americans can save on taxes by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/upstream-planning-transfers-capital-gains-tax-stock-real-estate-2024-10">giving stock and real estate to their parents</a>.</li><li>Tesla investors don't seem to trust Elon Musk like they used to. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-twitter-wall-street-disappointment-self-driving-taxi-2024-10">Is that because of Twitter</a>?</li><li>Here's how natural disasters are shaping the buy-versus-rent decision <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-natural-disasters-buy-rent-florida-climate-change-risks-2024-10">in vulnerable states like Florida</a>.</li><li>Warren Buffett's company website looks like a relic from the 1990s — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-website-homepage-culture-values-billionaires-links-2024-10">but that's on purpose</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>It's Columbus Day in the US. In some states, like New York, it's a day to celebrate Italian American culture and history.</li><li>It's also Indigenous People's Day, which some states recognize instead of, or in addition to, Columbus Day. Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia mark this holiday.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

The stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. So now what?

Cash, the ultimate safety asset in the world of investing, is suddenly the hottest trade on Wall Street.Even with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-stock-returns-prediction-different-projections-inflation-bullish-2024-10">S&amp;P 500 up by 22% this year</a>, Americans have poured more than $230 billion into <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/banking/what-is-a-money-market-account">money markets</a>: funds holding cash and short-term debt. Typically, cash is reserved for investors who want <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-diversification">protection in times of turbulence</a> — the proverbial stashing of money under the mattress. But 2024 has been the second-biggest year for saving money since the 1970s, behind only 2023.What's notable about this flight to cash is that it's not the baby boomers hoarding dollars for retirement; it's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-gen-z-stock-market-baby-boomers-wealth-investing-2024-2">millennials adding to their reserves</a>.In a June survey by Bank of America's wealth-management arm on how wealthy Americans were approaching their finances, the bank's analysts found that over the past two years, 55% of investors between 21 and 43 had increased their cash holdings, compared with 46% of investors 44 and older. That wasn't just young people who got worried about the economy or the risks of a sudden sell-off: The survey also suggested that younger respondents had rosy views of the economy and their finances.I saw the same puzzling trend in investor surveys during my time at eToro, a well-known retail brokerage firm. At the end of 2023, 63% of investors 44 and younger told us they had increased their cash allocations in the past six months (versus just 27% of investors 45 or older). This, despite the fact that younger investors were more optimistic about the economy, their incomes, their living situations, and their investments.There's something driving younger Americans to save their cash, and I don't think it's solely the 5% savings rates.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-millennials-financial-futures-jobs-economy-money-pandemic-recession-2023-4">Millennial investors have been deeply scarred</a> by two life-changing crises in their young lives. For many millennials, the global financial crisis hit just as they were entering their working years. About a decade later, a once-in-a-generation pandemic — and two painful bear markets — delivered another blow to their psyches.And now, in the prime of their investing years, the echo of those events has made them risk-averse in their investments. Millennials may be protecting themselves well with their ability to save. But when wealth is built on compounding returns over long periods, their distrust of the stock market could set them back in the long run.Young investors have become synonymous with rampant speculation: They <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/what-are-zero-day-expiration-options-stock-market-risks-0dte-2023-9">trade zero-day options</a>, hop on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-outlook-millennials-meme-stocks-active-investment-robo-advisors-morningstar">the meme-stock rocket</a>, or <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gen-z-investing-social-media-finance-fintok-millennial-investors-2021-7">take extreme risks</a> in the name of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wifi-money-instagram-finance-influencers-angry-investors-lawsuits-2024-5">social-media clout</a>. Sure, some investors adopted this devil-may-care attitude, and I'll never judge somebody for doing what they want with their own money. But if you look at hard numbers from the Federal Reserve about what millennial investors actually own, you can see that this stereotype is misguided.Despite their coming of age in one of the longest stock-market rallies in history, millennials had 19% of their total financial assets in cash as of June 30, the most of any generation. In a way, this makes sense — the younger you are, the less time you have to put your money toward other investments. When you compare millennials' cash levels with Gen X's cash levels at the same age, though, the risk aversion becomes clear. If you were born right in the middle of the millennial generation, you're now 36. These "median millennials" held more cash as a share of their total assets during their 20s than Gen Xers did at those ages — a difference of about 13 percentage points.What's worse, though, is that millennials avoided stocks during some of the best years for investors. As our median millennial grew from 21 to 30, the S&amp;P 500 grew by an average of 11.5% annually, while savings accounts paid next to nothing because of the Fed's zero-interest-rate policy. Millennial savers didn't just give up a precious decade of compounding — they missed one of the longest bull markets in history.While the gap has started to close now that most millennials are in their 30s, the survey data suggests the millennial cash obsession hasn't quite let up.There are plenty of reasons for the recent uptick in cash allocation. Savings and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/banking/average-money-market-interest-rate">money-market rates</a> leaped as high as 5%, giving investors attractive risk-free returns; <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-new-economic-supercycle-growth-inflation-stock-market-global-chaos-2024-10">geopolitical upheaval means the world</a> feels extremely shaky; and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-fears-fueling-stock-market-crash-wall-street-chaos-positive-2024-8">Wall Street pros have been warning</a> about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-recession-stock-market-crash-calls-wrong-economy-housing-2023-6">a recession for over a year now</a>. But when it comes to younger investors, I think the scars run deeper than worries about a coming downturn.Millennials have had a tumultuous induction into adulthood. Many of them were in high school or college or in their early working years during the global financial crisis. From 2009 to 2014, the unemployment rate was 10% or higher for 20- to 24-year-old Americans. They learned to prioritize cash as they navigated one of the worst downturns in history. Then, just as they were finding their footing, the COVID-19 pandemic hit. We were locked inside our houses for weeks on end while stocks entered one of their swiftest crashes on record. Soon after, we nervously waded back into the wealth-building waters, only to get hit by scorching inflation and another bear market.Every generation has its war stories. Gen Xers had to process 9/11 and the tech bubble bursting in their late 20s. Baby boomers dealt with their own bout of inflation and high rates as 20-year-olds in the 1980s. Their parents were unfortunate enough to experience the Great Depression, a three-year stretch of the darkest economic days in the United States. But there's something especially pernicious about having to navigate not one but two earth-shattering crises early in adulthood.Money can be a highly personal subject. Our feelings of financial stability develop through experiences, not classes or textbooks. A 2017 University of Michigan study found that children as young as 5 could start developing spending and saving habits. There's also a ton of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-people-are-developing-money-dysmorphia-2024-7">research that suggests financial stress</a> can lead to a litany of physical, mental, and emotional issues. Early financial trauma can profoundly shape your relationship with money. That's why personal finance can feel so illogical at times — why some of us may be set on paper but constantly fear losing it all.I know this well. I'm a young millennial who felt the financial crisis as a teenager. My mom was a part-time bookkeeper at a housing construction company, and my dad was a residential electrician. You could probably guess what happened when the housing market went into a tailspin. I may not have been old enough to open a brokerage account, but I picked up some perverse money habits from the financial crisis that I'm trying to unlearn — even now, as the head of research at a firm that teaches people how to build wealth. Multiply this mentality across a generation, and you have one swath who brought us crypto, Occupy Wall Street, meme stocks, and YOLO capitalism, and another batch that can't seem to take enough risks to build a decent retirement fund. These more cautious ones piled their savings into inflation-linked I-bonds — super-safe government-issued debt that locks away your money for a year — when they hit 9% in 2022. A great decision for an emergency fund, but less savvy when the stock market is plumbing new lows.Saving too much money seems like a good problem to have, but keeping all your money in a savings account can be a huge financial mistake when you consider the opportunity cost. Imagine you put $1,000 in a savings account in July 2023 — at the peak of the Fed's rate hikes — earning a sweet 5% APY on your cash. By October 4, you would've earned about $60 on that money.How does that compare to stock-market returns? Not great.By staying in cash over the past year and change, you missed a 27% rally in the S&amp;P 500. In other words, that $1,000 would've turned into about $1,277 if you'd invested it in a no-fee index fund. There were strong gains to be had in other major indexes, too: a 28% climb in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and an 18% rise in the mega-company Dow. Yes, even your grandma's index beat your cash return.Of course, stocks and cash are different financial beasts. Cash can be dependable in tough times, and it's often the best place to stash away funds for a big purchase. It also makes sense to have some cash on hand. Stocks, by contrast, are often far from stable. Lots of popular stocks have dropped 10% to 20% of their value in a single day, and you could theoretically lose all your invested money in the stock market. But as scary as that sounds, it's the essence of risk-taking; you give up stability for potentially greater returns over time. If you have decades ahead of you as an investor, you're in a prime spot to take some risks. Every little bit matters, too. Over long periods, the difference between 5% and 6% returns on a $1,000 investment can be thousands of dollars. For what it's worth, the S&amp;P 500 — an index of America's largest companies — has grown by about 8% a year over the past two decades.The long-term math favors shifting away from cash, and the short-term calculus is changing, too. Because the Fed started cutting interest rates in September, you're slowly losing that sweet, sweet savings rate — average money-market rates have slid to 2.75% from 2.9% at the end of July.Fellow millennials: As a market nerd who studies how the wealthiest Americans get rich, I'm begging you to stop playing it safe. Cash may feel like a warm, fuzzy blanket, but you're not getting anything done just lying there on the couch bingeing Netflix. Holding cash as an emergency fund or a house down payment makes sense. Staking your retirement on cash doesn't.Risk is the foundation of wealth-building, so get off the couch.Callie Cox is the chief market strategist at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/">Ritholtz Wealth Management</a> and the author of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.optimisticallie.com/">OptimistiCallie</a>, a newsletter of Wall Street-quality research for everyday investors. You can view Ritholtz's disclosures <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/blog-disclosures">here</a>.

Millennials are hoarding cash. That could hurt them in the long run.

<ul><li><keyword id="19741479" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wedding-gold-sales" source="Orion">Wedding gold sales</keyword> are seeing recycling on account of high prices, but it’s a zero sum-game.</li><li>If allocation of gold is higher than 15% in a portfolio, profits can be booked but that is not strongly advised.</li><li>Experts believe that there will be another spike in <keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">gold prices</keyword> in 2024, once the US Fed changes its stance on interest rates which will shift focus to gold. </li></ul>Jayasri Vadapalli, 54-year-old homemaker from Hyderabad has been trying to exchange her old-fashioned gold jewellery pieces for a while now. After gold prices hit a new-high in December, she was thrilled to hear that the necklace she purchased eight years back is now worth twice what she paid for. “I thought of exchanging it for another set,” she said. But her plans were thwarted as she learnt that she missed the festive-period discount season. As per reports, there has been a surge in people recycling old gold like her, during the ongoing wedding season. Prices are of no consequence as exchanging old gold for new jewellery is a zero-sum game, say experts. “There is no gain to be made when people recycle gold. In fact, it’s a bad idea to exchange when prices are high as no jeweller will give any offers when there is a rush,” Jateen Trivedi, VP and research analyst at LKP Securities tells Business Insider India. Book profits or hold? India is sitting on physical gold holdings which are estimated anywhere between 25,000 to 27000 tonnes. It’s all worth a lot more after the recent spike, but little can be realized from it, as most of it is in the form of jewellery — which is not sold unless there is a specific need or an emergency. “Traditionally, Indians have been advised to safeguard their future by saving or investing in gold. While considering physical gold, it is usually not purchased for investment purposes so they could hold it for their respective purpose,” says Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities , Mehta Equities. Agrees Trivedi,“There is no woman in India who would sell her jewellery no matter what the prices are or how much profits there are in it unless there is a financial crunch or need for family. The amount of physical gold in the form of bars which is held for trading purposes can be sold to book profits, but that percentage is very low.” It’s very unlikely that even traders would liquidate their holdings, since analysts expect gold to see another spike once the US Fed goes in for rate cuts to support growth. “We advise as much as 10-15% of the portfolio to be in gold holdings. Any incremental holdings can be sold to book profits as we look at gold holding strategically and not tactically. If prices run up a lot, they can be sold to book profits but prospects for 2024 look good, so they shouldn’t miss out on that,” says Ghazal Jain, fund manager of alternative investments at Quantum AMC. Should you buy more? Most experts expect some short-term correction from the all-time high to the tune of 5-7% in the next few months – offering a brief but decisive entry point. “After the first quarter of 2024, we might see another positive cycle after interest rate cuts,” says Trivedi. Jain also says that the outlook is positive even if there could be some volatility in the next few months. “We suggest individuals could consider shifting to Sovereign Gold Bonds, offering the dual advantage of gold investment and earning interest over time,” says Kalantri. There is another factor at play that can offer long-term support to prices is the aggressive central bank purchases of gold. Apart from the yellow metal’s safe haven status, de-dollarization is also adding to its lustre. “One of the main drivers of gold demand is China, India, Russia, and Turkey, which buy record amounts of gold to protect their economy from dollar fluctuations and increase their financial independence,” says a report by Kedia Advisory. China, which is the biggest global buyer of oil, has been in talks with Saudi Arabia to sell them oil in yuan since 2022. “It is possible that the Saudis may have asked for the yuan to be backed by gold, to bolster its lack of free convertibility. This could explain why the Chinese central bank has been buying more and more gold each year,” explains Jamal Mecklai, CEO of Mecklai Financial in his note. China has already announced its goal of raising gold holdings to 5%, and its share at the end of Q2 2023 is at 3.84%. “The possibility that China may see fit to push the share of its gold holdings even higher than 5%, we may well be seeing just the start of a real bull market in gold,” adds Mecklai. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/stellar-listing-gains-book-profits-if-there-are-bumper-gains-say-experts/articleshow/105630290.cms">Stellar listing gains: Book profits if there are bumper gains say experts</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/private-equity-vc-players-make-a-killing-as-ipo-rush-yields-them-10000-crore/articleshow/105649353.cms">Private equity &amp; VC players make a killing as IPO rush yields them ₹10,000 crore</a>

Gold rush: Don’t recycle or book profits yet, another bull-run on the way say analysts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The two-year-old bull market in stocks could last for another year, NDR strategists said. </li><li>That's assuming three positive catalysts fall into place, they added.</li></ul>The latest bull market in stocks may still have a long life ahead of it, according to Ned Davis Research.Strategists at the research firm said that the two-year-old bull run could potentially last for another 12 months. As long as three positive catalysts continue to boost the market, there's no reason stocks can't climb higher, NDR said in a note this week. Of the 13 bull markets that lasted for at least two years since 1949, stocks have continued to climb higher for a third year unless the economy entered a downturn or encountered a Black Swan event, such as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, or the US credit downgrade in 2011, the firm said.In one instance, the bull market ended after the Fed reversed its rate cut decision, spooking investors.<div type="image" title="Chart of 2+ year long bull markets since 1949" height="1155" width="1323" msid="113917898" hostid="261" sizebytes="101550"></div>"Bull markets do not die of old age," strategists wrote. "The table underscores our view that absent a Fed policy error, hard landing, or external shock, the path of least resistance is a continuation of the bull market."Of all the bull markets that lasted for at least three years since 1949, stocks gained a median 13.1% in their third year, Ned Davis Research said.The S&amp;P 500 has gained 60% since the index entered bull market territory in October 2022. Those gains have largely been on the back of three positive catalysts, the firm said, suggesting that stocks could continue to do well as long as the positive factors remained in play.<ol><li>Disinflation: Cooling inflation has "defined" the current bull market, the firm wrote. While progress in lowering inflation seemed to stall in the early half of the year, prices have continued to trend closer to the Fed's 2% inflation target, clocking in at 2.5% in August.</li><li>Avoiding a recession: The US needs a soft-landing for stocks to continue to do well. Recession risks, though, look "low over the near-term," strategists said, with GDP clocking in at a robust 3% the last quarter.</li><li>Strong earnings: Corporate earnings growth needs to be solid for markets to continue their uptrend. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf#:~:text=Looking%20ahead%2C%20analysts%20expect%20(year,)%20earnings%20growth%20of%2015.1%25.">Earnings growth among S&amp;P 500 firms</a> was estimated to be around 4.6% over the third quarter, according to FactSet. If that proves to be true, that will mark the fifth straight quarter of earnings growth, the analytics firm said in a note.</li></ol>"We remain bullish on US stocks on an absolute basis and relative to bonds and cash," strategists added.

3 bullish catalysts could keep the bull rally alive and boost stocks 13% in the coming year, research firm says 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AI stocks have hogged the limelight, but another asset cluster has enjoyed a similar boom.</li><li>Uranium and shares in companies that mine it have enjoyed a scorching rally on soaring demand.</li></ul>While artificial intelligence hogs all the limelight in the investing world, another under-the-radar asset cluster has been quietly stealing a march on tech stocks.A blistering bull run is underway in the market for <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/uranium-price">uranium</a>, the radioactive element used to produce nuclear energy. Prices just hit 15-year highs, and are on track for a record annual gain as a move away from fossil fuels increases demand.That's also fueling a scorching rally in the stocks of uranium miners such as Cameco. The Sprott Uranium Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (URNM) has jumped 42% this year – higher than the 40% advance in the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 index. Cameco's shares rocketed 83% year-to-date.Uranium is up 55% this year and last week hit $74.50 per pound – the highest level since 2008. In comparison, gold has gained just 7.7%, while US oil prices fell 3.7%.<h2>Heavy metal mania</h2>Demand for the heavy metal has surged as countries from China to India and Russia pursue more nuclear programs to generate more energy while reducing carbon emissions.About 60 nuclear reactors are under construction globally and will need about 30 million pounds of uranium a year when they start operating, according to a <a href="https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/investor-guide-to-the-uranium-bull-market-the-new-nuclear-renaissance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> by mining investment news and analysis provider Crux Investor.On the other hand, supply of uranium has been constrained by years of underinvestment in the sector following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.The widening demand-supply gap will continue to drive uranium prices higher, according to John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, which specializes in precious metals and real assets.Uranium prices have jumped "about 150% in the last two years, and we think there's more room to go," he recently told <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdqOnsh6e_k" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNBC</a>.Ciampaglia blamed the "major supply deficit" for the surge: "That's really a function having a lost decade where we did not invest in this technology. As a result, we did not invest in a lot of mining."<h2>China leads the race</h2>About 800 gigawatts of new nuclear power generation may be needed globally by 2050 to meet energy-transition goals, according to a report by asset manager Global X ETFs. China is expected to lead the atomic-energy race in this century.By 2060, China should be generating about 18% of its electricity from nuclear plants in the world, up from about 5%, Rohan Reddy of Global X wrote in the report.

A blistering bull run is underway in the market for uranium

<ul><li><keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">Gold prices</keyword> went up by 14% in 2023, while silver gained as much as 8% during the year.</li><li>In 2024, <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword> is expected to give 10-11% returns with silver returns pegged at 12-15%.</li><li><keyword id="85550" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="silver-prices" source="Orion">Silver prices</keyword> could see a breakout year in 2024, with good performance in the second half. </li></ul>Gold may have outshined silver in 2023, but in the coming year, white metal may see asharper price hike, experts say. While gold gained as much as 14% during the year, silver price movement has not matched up pace. This may change and the white metal is expected to see a breakout. It’s customary for silver prices to move with gold, but the former saw a rollercoaster ride with ups and downs – ending the year with 8% gains in 2023. On the other hand, gold’s safe haven status was greatly enhanced during the year due to geopolitical tensions, tight interest rates as well as central bank buying. Silver safe, gold safest Silver too saw a positive movement due to geopolitical tensions, decline in the US yield curve and the dollar index, among other factors that sparked the movement. But it did not react as sharply as gold, even as it too provides safe haven advantages. But the coming year may see it shine as much or even brighter than gold. “Silver is a precious metal and also an industrial metal, so it is getting double tailwinds. It seems that the three-year consolidation (August 2020-December 2023) in silver prices is coming to an end. This is likely to get over in March,” expects Aprajita Saxena, research analyst at Trustline, an equity research and asset management firm. Naveen Mathur, director of commodities &amp; currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers believes silver can give double digit gains in 2024. “Silver is also expected to remain a bright spot for 2024, as continued deficit projections along with investment demand may push the white metal to give further 12-15 % returns after having a bullish 2023,” he added. Most experts believe that silver might start off with a tepid first half in 2024, but may gain slowly ahead. “Silver will initially underperform gold, but in the later half of the year, I will not be surprised if it outperforms gold. Once crude stabilizes, and comes under $75 all then all economic activities, and metals like silver and copper will pick up,” said Saxena. Gold will keep up its run The yellow metal on the other hand, is expected to sharpen its shine in 2024. In the last three weeks of December, investors doubled down bets on the precious metal. The Federal Reserve is expected to unwind its restrictive stance on monetary policy in 2024. Decline in yields which is expected to have peaked in the current quarter along with weaker dollar index also provided a boost to gold prices. Experts feel that the metal still has juice left for investors. Treasury yields, declining US dollar, and expectations of lower interest rates in the upcoming year could keep supporting gold prices. Most experts expect gold to give as much as 10-11% returns in the coming year. “When interest rates remain lower, inflation begins to increase, which subsequently lifts gold prices. In 2024, the Fed will remain dovish on monetary policy, which would be a favorable condition for gold's bull run,” said Nirpendra Yadav, senior commodity research analyst at Swastika Investmart. The ongoing geopolitical issue may continue next year, which may elevate gold prices to higher levels. “Opportunities do exist for traders/investors to make fresh moves as new highs are still possible in the coming year in Gold amid probabilities of an interest rate cut as soon as March 2024 increasing with markets anticipating 6-7 rate cuts for 2024 resulting in a hard landing scenario,” said Mathur.

Bullion bull run to continue: White metal may see a breakout in 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's stock rally could extend another 15% to 20%, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li>The country's equity indexes have jumped dramatically since Beijing announced major stimulus policies.</li></ul>The blowout surge in China's stock market still has ways to go, with another 15% to 20% upside ahead, Goldman Sachs predicts.It's a standout call for a market that has already impressed in recent weeks. Despite the short length of the Chinese rally to date, the MSCI China Index is now up more than 34% year-to-date, surpassing gains for the US benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a>."The significant gains in the equity market have been driven by two key factors: the catalyst of more substantial policy measures and the starting conditions of an oversold and under-positioned market backdrop," Goldman said.That's a reference to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">wide-sweeping set of policies Beijing</a> introduced in late September, signaling the government's seriousness about tackling China's lagging economy. Measures included liquidity boosts, interest-rate easing, and reserve-ratio-requirement cuts, as well as mortgage-rate support.Looking forward, Goldman detailed four reasons to support its 15%-to-20% upside forecast for Chinese stocks.First, valuations have room to expand if Beijing commits to its policy support. Even though they have recovered from a low of 8.4 times forward earnings, valuations remain below a five-year mean of 12.1 times, Goldman said. It added that fiscal easing often corresponds with expanding valuations.Second, China's recent policy announcements likely clamp down on investment risk. Before Beijing delivered its forceful stimulus blitz, the market's implied cost of equity stood at elevated levels, indicating lingering concern of downside risk. China's commitment to its new policies should ease this measure.Third, earnings growth could pick up if the economy responds well to China's latest support measures. Goldman is optimistic in this outcome, estimating that the central bank's policy easing could uplift China's GDP by 40 basis points."Our economists currently forecast GDP growth of 4.7% and 4.3% for 2024 and 2025 but note that the announced and indicated measures reduce downside growth risks inherent in recent monthly activity data," the bank said.Fourth, equity positioning is light, leaving room for more market entrants that could push stocks higher, Goldman said.With risk appetite returning to onshore and foreign investors, market participation is rising from low levels. But even as traders snap up Chinese equities, their exposure still remains lax. For instance, mutual funds were 310 basis points underweight China at the end of August, Goldman said: the rally's jumpstart only deepens this figure.Still, while Goldman said efforts so far have been very stocks-positive, it's not yet willing to declare that a structural bull market has begun. It cited that China continues to suffer major challenges, from low consumer spending to an indebted property market. Some analysts have cited that even more support is necessary, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-outlook-stimulus-fiscal-consumer-support-deflation-stephen-roach-2024-10">especially fiscal stimulus</a>.

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