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India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

India's services sector showed robust expansion in October, per the <keyword id="22267674" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HSBC-India-Services-PMI" source="keywords">HSBC India Services PMI</keyword> (Purchasing Managers' Index), which rose to 58.5 last month, up from September's ten-month low of 57.7. October's figures managed to exceed even the long-run PMI average of 54.1, largely on the back of a strong sales pipeline and elevated demand. Employment, or job creation in this sector accelerated to its fastest growth rate in 26 months. Anticipating solid, sustained demand in the near term, firms added new employees at the most rapid pace in over 2 years. October also saw <keyword id="23834175" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="input-costs-rise" source="keywords">input costs rise</keyword> at their fastest pace in 3 months, indicating renewed demand and economic activity in the country. The ISM Services PMI, an indicator of the economic health of the US, also exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 compared to the forecasted 53.8, suggesting strong growth within the services sector. "During October, the Indian services sector experienced strong expansions in output and consumer demand, as well as job creation, which achieved a 26-month high," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. The sector saw increased business activity across multiple fronts, with export sales showing significant growth and companies reporting stronger demand from international markets including Africa, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East, and the UK. However, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector's prospects. Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist at Acuité Ratings &amp; Research, noted that while the October recovery is promising, several factors warrant careful monitoring. “The recovery in the PMI indices in October 2024 is promising for the second half of the fiscal after the dip in several high-frequency indicators in September 2024. Industrial and service activity has expectedly received a boost from the anticipated spike in consumption demand in Q3 FY25, driven by the festivities and the marriage season," she said. Chowdhury added that it will be crucial to monitor the sustainability of these PMI indices at these elevated levels, given the reported weakness in urban demand in Q2 as flagged by FMCG companies. She also noted that potential increases in wholesale and core retail inflation, combined with higher input costs and wage pressures, could delay expected interest rate cuts. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also noted that inflation and CPI figures for October might be elevated, pushing ahead any chances of interest rate cuts in the near future. Acuité Ratings &amp; Research maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7.0% for FY25 while acknowledging the multiple downside risks that will require close observation in the coming months.

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Russian court fined Google for not restoring YouTube accounts linked to Russian TV channels.</li><li>The fine is about $20.6 decillion — a figure many orders of magnitude beyond the world's GDP.</li></ul>A legal dispute between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/google">Google</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/russia">Russia</a> over suspended YouTube accounts has led to a fine so large that it exceeds all the money on Earth.Ivan Morozov, a Moscow-based lawyer, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.ru/ekonomika/22263289">told the state-run TASS newswire</a> that a Russian court ordered the tech giant to restore Russian media accounts on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/youtube">YouTube</a>, a Google-owned company.He said that Google's failure to do so has resulted in a fine that had been regularly doubling for years.There is no cap on the total, the lawyer said.Morozov, who did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider, said that the cumulative amount has now reached 2 undecillion rubles — an almost unfathomable figure.At the current exchange rate, the fine is equivalent to about $20.6 decillion.A decillion is a figure followed by 33 zeros — which in this case puts the fine at $20,604,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.To put this into perspective, the world's GDP is equivalent to about $105 trillion, a minuscule fraction of the fine.It's improbable that Google could or would pay such an amount, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rbc.ru/technology_and_media/29/10/2024/671fd2389a794726b01d3af3">RBK</a>, a Russian business-media outlet, says relates to legal claims brought by more than a dozen <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-state-tv-is-one-of-putins-greatest-weapons-amid-the-war-in-ukraine-2022-6">Russian TV channels</a> about the suspension of YouTube accounts.According to court filings <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-16/google-faces-huge-fines-in-russia-as-putin-ally-wins-lawsuit">reviewed by Bloomberg in 2021</a>, Google suspended the accounts to comply with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-west-sanction-russia-artillery-war-machine-experts-2024-10">US sanctions.</a>Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told BI in a message that the size of the fine is "clearly insane" and "absurd.""So even if Google gave Russia everything the world produced this year, every day since the universe began, it would only have paid about 3% of this fine," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Nigelgd1/status/1851404815533854948">Gould-Davies wrote on X</a>.He likened it to "putting a dead person on trial" — apt since Google has no active presence in Russia, and little by way of assets to claim.In 2022, Google's Russian legal arm, Google LLC, filed for bankruptcy, and authorities seized its bank accounts, though free services continue to operate in the country.Google's parent company, Alphabet, doesn't seem to think it will have a material impact.It has regularly referred to the cases in its quarterly earnings reports. Business Insider found the first mention in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://abc.xyz/assets/fa/0e/606be5234d8c895e5e167d38811f/20220427-alphabet-10q.pdf">Q1 of 2022</a>.In its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10">Q3 2024 earnings report</a>, released Tuesday, Alphabet wrote of "ongoing legal matters" relating to Russia.It referred to civil judgments that include "compounding penalties" levied "in connection with disputes regarding the termination of accounts," including those of people on sanctions lists."We do not believe these ongoing legal matters will have a material adverse effect," the report said — an assessment in line with prior reports.Google has not responded to a request for comment from BI.

A Russian court hit Google with a fine larger than the world's GDP, stretching credulity

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="1645850" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russians" source="Orion">Russians</keyword> are spending money freely, with consumption per capita surging over 20% from 2021 to 2023.</li><li>The spending comes on the back of an overheated economy, with growth driven by wartime state spending.</li></ul>Russia's economy is booming, and some people are spending generously, sending prices up. Russia posted 3.6%<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-2024-gdp-growth-seen-matching-2023-36-finance-minister-says-2024-04-19/"> GDP growth last year.</a> The unemployment rate hit a record low of 2.6% in April, as men continued heading to the war's front amid a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">brain drain.</a> The labor crunch has driven up wages, contributing to high inflation running over 9% on an annual basis — well above the official 4% target. On Friday, the Russian central bank warned — yet again — of an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-central-bank-governor-nabiullina-warns-overheating-inflation-interest-2023-12">overheating economy</a> when it hiked rates from 16% to 18%in an attempt to rein in price gains. "The GDP growth rates remained high in 2024 Q1 and Q2, while inflation was accelerating. This suggests that overheating in the economy has remained considerable," said Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's central bank governor, on Friday during her rate hike announcement. Despite sweeping sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Russia's economy</a> hasn't broken down and even appears resilient, as it's now being driven by wartime state spending on military activities and subsidies. <h2>Russians are traveling and spending on culture and hotels</h2>The rate hike from Russia's central bank comes amid a spending boom in the country where many appear to be spending very freely, even amid the war and Western sanctions, as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e2b2e63-082e-4058-ba92-dea580d4f40c">Financial Times reported on Friday.</a> Overall, consumption per capita has increased by over 20% from 2021 to 2023, with spending on tourism a standout, surging over 90%, according to the FT's analysis of official data. Spending on culture, hotels, transportation services, and personal services has also jumped. A resident in Moscow told the FT that her neighbor has been showing off photos of a pet lion. "Everyone who is upper-middle class, they're just enjoying a really good life," Sergei Ishkov, a Moscow investor and entrepreneur, told the media outlet. "Consumption is booming due to a combination of massive budget spending and labor force shortages leading to strong wage pressures," wrote Bartosz Sawicki, a market analyst at fintechConotoxia, in a Friday note. But military spending, which is around 7% of GDP, is leading to "serious macroeconomic imbalances," Sawicki added. <h2>Russia's central bank may hike rates again if necessary</h2>Nabiullina said on Friday that Russia's GDP will grow 3.5% to 4% this year from a year ago. But next year, it's likely to slow to 0.5% to 1.5% year-over-year growth. She added that the Russian central bank would keep its key interest rate high for as long as needed to bring inflation back to its target. If necessary, it could even impose more rate hikes to reduce economic risks. "Labour force and production capacity reserves have been almost exhausted," said Nabiullina on Friday. "Shortages of these resources might cause a situation where the economic growth will be slowing down despite any attempts to boost demand." Furthermore, any attempt to stimulate demand would only stoke even more inflation. That could create "a scenario of stagflation that could only be stopped by way of a deep recession," she warned, explaining the central bank's steep rate hike. The central bank next meets on September 13.

Some Russians are spending like no tomorrow with 'considerable' overheating in the economy

The benchmark indices <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> and <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> hits lifetime highs on Thursday during the mid-hours of <keyword id="20114014" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trading" source="keywords">trading</keyword>. The Nifty touched a record high at 25,174.55 and Sensex rose to 82,220.68. The indices opened almost flat with a mixed response from both indices in the opening hour. The Nifty at the National <keyword id="19976022" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock" source="keywords">Stock</keyword> Exchange (NSE) opened 17 points down at 25,035.30 points. The BSE Sensex opened with a minor gain of 35 points at 81,822.56. "Finally, it (Nifty) has broken through to fresh all-time highs. This opens up possibilities for a strong upmove now. Sector-wise, domestic cyclical will lead the way while IT is coming back in favour of selective names," said Ajay Bagga, <keyword id="19913381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market" source="keywords">Market</keyword> and Banking expert. "The markets have weathered the geopolitical news flow, the disorderly Yen carry trade unwinding moves, and the minor panic on an incipient US slowdown leading to a hard landing. These issues have been digested and factored in and FII flows have improved over the last few days to add to the robust domestic inflows. The structural bull market is back and we expect further upside in the markets," said Bagga. "While Nifty is trading at 23x its actual value, many heavyweight stocks like HDFC and Reliance are still trading below their all-time highs. However, I think sectors like IT, <keyword id="19933821" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pharma" source="keywords">Pharma</keyword>, FMCG, Consumption, and Metals have been instrumental, driven by factors such as the depreciation of the Indian Rupee, rising inflation in food items, and the growing scope in Pharma due to government projects," said VLA Ambala, Co-founder, Stock Market Today. "Despite this bullish trend, I would suggest <keyword id="19900618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investors" source="keywords">investors</keyword> to be cautious. Moreover, the NIFTY index is currently in an overbought zone, with RSI levels indicating a potential correction in the next 3-6 months. I would advise all investors to focus on dip-buying opportunities and avoid FOMO. Lastly, stick to stocks with strong fundamentals, as overvalued prices won't sustain in the long run," she said. Later this week, the markets will be reading the first quarter <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword> data which is scheduled on Friday. The Reserve Bank of India, in its latest monetary policy meeting, projected GDP growth for 2024-25 at 7.2 per cent, with growth for Q1 expected at 7.1 per cent. India's GDP grew by an impressive 8.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The Nifty 50 index began on April 22, 1996, with a starting value of 1136.28 points and has crossed the 25,100 milestone today, marking a growth of nearly 22 times.

Sensex surges to record high, gains 400 points; Nifty reaches all-time peak

<ul><li>The US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP growth in the first quarter.</li><li>Carson Group strategist Sonu Varghese highlighted five economic indicators that show the strength.</li><li>"The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown," Varghese said.</li></ul>The US economy is firing on all cylinders despite <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-economy-growth-2024-4">a slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth,</a> according to Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese.Varghese highlighted five economic indicators that show continued underlying strength in the US economy, giving him little reason for concern as the labor market continues to power higher."The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown as far as household spending is concerned," Varghese said in a note last week. "In fact, services spending, which makes up 45% of the economy rose at an annualized pace of 4%."That 4% growth rate is more than double the 1.8% growth trend seen from 2010 through 2019, according to Varghese, and it represents the fastest pace of growth since the third-quarter of 2021. "The current strength of consumption is directly related to the strength of American household finances," Varghese said.These are the five indicators that give Varghese confidence that the US consumer, and therefore the US economy, remains on solid footing.<h3>1. Income growth is outpacing inflation</h3>Despite elevated inflation, wage growth continues to outpace inflation growth, and that's ultimately a boon for consumers.Disposable incomes grew at an annualized pace of 4.8% in the first-quarter, and employee compensation soared 7.8%. Meanwhile, PCE inflation rose 4.4%."That's the simplest explanation for why consumption continues to run strong," Varghese said.<div type="image" title="Income versus inflation" height="803" width="626" msid="109792200" hostid="261" sizebytes="20070"></div><h3>2. Average hourly earnings are also outpacing inflation</h3>It's not only high-income earners that are seeing their wages outpace inflation. The average every-day worker is also seeing their income grow faster than the pace of inflation."Inflation-adjusted hourly wages are growing even when you look at the average worker, and separate non-managers from managers," Varghese explained.That's important because non-managers tend to spend a greater portion of their incomes from wages, so it's important that they see their wage growth outpace inflation. <div type="image" title="hourly earnings growth outpaces inflation" height="752" width="647" msid="109792202" hostid="261" sizebytes="27276"></div><h3>3. Consumer balance sheets are strong</h3>A continued rise in the stock market and housing prices means Americans are more wealthy today than they have ever been.US consumers held a collective $176.7 trillion in assets as of December 31, and their liabilities have not risen as quickly as their assets have.That means consumers have ample room to spend money and save less, which makes it no surprise that the savings rate of US consumers has steadily declined over the past few years to 4.2% today from 7.4% in 2019."This is not surprising considering net worth is higher. Why save more if you're worth more?" Varghese said. <div type="image" title="Consumer balance sheet" height="696" width="653" msid="109792204" hostid="261" sizebytes="27840"></div><h3>4. Consumer's have capacity to borrow more</h3>Across all levels of the income spectrum, consumers owe less in debt relative to their income than they have in decades.The household debt service ratio, which measures debt payments as a percentage of disposable income, stood at 9.8% in the fourth-quarter of 2024. That's significantly below the 13.3% peak hit in 2007 and the historical average of 11.2%, and it suggests that consumers have ample flexibility to borrow more money and consumer if they have to. "Across all income groups, liabilities as a percent of assets are well below what we've seen historically. In short, households are significantly less levered than in the past," Varghese said.<div type="image" title="Debt service ratio" height="837" width="648" msid="109792206" hostid="261" sizebytes="28142"></div><h3>5. The jobs market is still resilient</h3>"The labor market is the entire ballgame as far as the consumer is concerned. If the labor market deteriorates, incomes fall, consumption falls, and the economy is in trouble," Varghese said.And so far, there are no signs of that happening. "We have the opposite now," Varghese highlighted.The unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for 26 consecutive months, representing the longest streak since the late 1960s. Meanwhile, there is still more than one job opening for every unemployed worker, and weekly jobless claims continue to hover near historically low levels. "Ultimately, here's what's important to keep in mind: consumption makes up 70% of the US economy, and right now consumption is running strong thanks to strong labor markets, which are pushing incomes higher to above the pace of inflation, and higher net worth, which means households can spend more," Varghese concluded.

5 indicators that show the US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Earnings likely grew for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3.</li><li>Top strategists are eyeing 2025 results ahead of what's likely a mid-single-digit advance.</li></ul>Corporate earnings are on pace for their best non-pandemic year since 2018, and market strategists expect the party to continue in the upcoming earnings season and into 2025.Interest rates and inflation have been investors' primary concerns this year, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-recession-warning-signs-bca-research-berezin-2024-9">worries about the labor market</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-jobs-report-sentiment-consumers-elections-recession-inflation-mortgage-rates-2024-9">growth</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rates-pandemic-lows-inflation-supply-chain-geopolitical-bofa-mensah-2024-10">rising geopolitical tensions</a> have also sucked up plenty of oxygen — even though economists generally agree that a recession isn't imminent.Through all that noise, S&amp;P 500 profits have steadily risen and are set to end the year up 9.5%, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset</a>. That's the biggest jump for earnings in six years, other than 2021's robust recovery. Analysts believe 2025 will be even better, with growth of nearly 15% in the cards.<div type="image" title="2024 earnings as of Q2" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984264" hostid="261" sizebytes="55446"></div>Business Insider spoke with six investment chiefs, strategists, and money managers about the earnings and economic trends to watch in the Q3 earnings season and 2025 — plus how investors can position their portfolios for success.<h2 id="cb45912e-0004-415b-94ba-d8fc7736b77e">Q3 earnings will give clues about consumers</h2>Barring a major surprise, investors will learn starting in mid-October that earnings rose for the fifth straight quarter. Profits grew 4.6% in Q3, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset's latest projections</a>, though that would be down substantially from the 7.8% mark that analysts called for at the end of June.However, analysts have a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/why-do-analysts-low-ball-earnings-forecasts">habit of underselling earnings</a>. Nearly 79% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat Q2 estimates — partially due to a low bar, though results were quite strong at 11.2% growth.<div type="image" title="Factset beat rate Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984261" hostid="261" sizebytes="37156"></div>"What we've seen over the past few quarters, I really wouldn't describe as 'blowout growth' that sets up for disappointment going forward," said Mike Reynolds, Glenmede's vice president of investment strategy. Mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth is "pretty sustainable," he added.<div type="image" title="Factset Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984259" hostid="261" sizebytes="29018"></div>Profit margins will be in the crosshairs since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">inflation is slowing</a>, said Anthony Saglimbene, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. He's also keeping a close eye on signs about the strength of consumer spending, or lack thereof, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-wage-growth-investing-strategy-stocks-to-buy-goldman-sachs-2024-9">as wage growth dissipates</a>."There's been a lot of pricing power — not only in technology, but across a lot of the services and goods sides of the equation," Saglimbene said. "Can you hold profit margins in an environment where maybe your costs are becoming more stable, but demand is starting to slow?"Demand is either softening or steadfast, depending on your perspective. Joe Quinlan — who's head of markets strategy at Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America — recently remarked that there's a strikingly wide gap between high-income households and those who aren't well off.The strategy chief recently wrote that a mere 4.4% of US households make up 15% of personal consumption, which is the <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">backbone of GDP</a>. The rich are disproportionately driving economic growth because of the wealth effect, which means they're confident since stocks are rising. Meanwhile, Quinlan noted that <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx">roughly 40% of US households don't own stocks</a>."They're the ones — the lower-income households — definitely feeling the squeeze of higher prices. I know inflation has come down when we look at the metrics, but prices for food, rent, insurance — they're still elevated," Quinlan said, adding that this is limiting disposable income.Although weakness among lower-income households is troubling, strategists don't think it will show up in corporate earnings since consumers broadly are holding up."The consumer is pretty healthy," Reynolds said. "There's maybe some warning signs on the margin on credit-card balances and delinquencies, but it's really not enough to break the camel's back on earnings."<h2 id="e9ed5200-3a27-426c-b63a-a65a628a84e6">Why earnings will thrive in 2025</h2>Although investors have only seen about half of 2024 earnings, which are on track to rise 10%, it's already time to look to 2025."As the year continues, I do think it's not about earnings for this year — it's the trajectory of earnings for next year," said Andrew Slimmon, a lead portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.<div type="image" title="Factset 2024 earnings" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984262" hostid="261" sizebytes="29164"></div>Corporate profits should stay strong and can potentially improve, strategists say, provided that the US economy doesn't slow too much."If the macroeconomic picture holds together, there's an expectation that we should see a bit of a re-acceleration in earnings growth," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.Quinlan agrees and predicted that "earnings will reflect the dynamic and resiliency of the US economy that we just closed the quarter on."Michael Smith, the head of the growth equity team at Allspring Global Investments, said his research also indicates that companies are healthy, at least compared to a few years ago."We talk to our companies quite frequently and do our own work talking to their customers and suppliers, and we really feel like there are still some pockets of strong demand through our economy," Smith said.And even if economic growth comes in light, corporate earnings won't necessarily suffer."There's not always a one-for-one relationship between economic growth and earnings growth," Reynolds said. "You can still see earnings growth at a pretty robust level, even if economic growth moderates to some extent. So again, there's correlation there, but definitely not direct causation."Bears have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-valuations-1929-2000-hussman-2024-9">long warned that this market is overvalued</a>, but unless earnings suddenly plummet, Slimmon suggested that those fears are overstated."As long as Q3 of this year is OK, I think that's where we're going to start next year with close to $280 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P," Slimmon said. "And that is supportive of a stock market that trades kind of closer to 6,000."Analysts' estimates may be ambitious, Saglimbene said. He suspects that Q4 expectations will recede alongside projections for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, though that often happens before quarters."That could be a little bit of a headwind for the market," Saglimbene said. "But again, if we're growing and profits are growing year-over-year, I think the market will look past some of that."Saglimbene later added: "We might not grow by 15% next year in an environment where the economy's growing 2%, but we might grow 7% or 8%. That's a normal earnings growth kind of environment, and I think that's enough to continue to push the market higher."<h2 id="06369d93-53a3-422f-8a02-436b2da92292">3 top places to invest heading into Q3 earnings</h2>When asked which parts of the market look most attractive, strategists consistently identified three sectors: communication services, healthcare, and technology.Large-cap growth stocks have carried the market higher for years thanks to their supercharged earnings. But that has changed in recent months, Saglimbene noted.The strategy chief expects to see broader profit growth, especially in economically sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, and real estate. They may also have more upside since they're cheaper."The areas that have not seen the best profit growth, like cyclicals outside of technology, their profit growth trends could actually improve more than expected because the economy is not headed for recession, because growth is remaining positive, because consumers are still spending," Saglimbene said.Smith agrees that industrials and consumer-focused sectors are worth a look, as are tech and healthcare companies. His investing strategy is centered around finding growth stocks on the so-called "right side of change" that also happen to be discounted. He said he's found more opportunities in small- and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-2025-mid-caps-investing-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-9">mid-sized stocks</a> lately."Money has to find a home somewhere, and it tends to flow to where it gets treated the best," Smith said. "Right now, the relative opportunity is down-cap."

Here's how to invest in the Q3 earnings season as profits re-accelerate despite misplaced recession myths

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed Thursday, with the Nasdaq trading in correction territory. </li><li>Gross domestic product grew by 4.9% at an annualized rate over the third quarter, the fastest since 2021.</li></ul>US stocks traded mixed at the open Thursday, as investors digested gross domestic product data that showed the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-recession-outlook-economy-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2023-10#:~:text=The%20US%20economy%20is%20booming&amp;text=Real%20GDP%20rose%204.9%25%20at,be%20too%20long%20or%20severe.">economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter</a>, the fastest pace since 2021.The reading beat the expected 4.3% rate and marked an acceleration from growth of about 2% during the first two quarters of the year. While that may suggest more tightening from the Federal Reserve, Treasury yields were little changed."This is a strong print but it's now behind us," Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, said in a Thursday note. "The Q3 party might have a meaningful hangover as many positive drivers won't persist: a weaker consumer, stubborn inflation, a strong dollar, and the lagged impact of rate hikes can all combine for a restrictive backdrop heading into Q4 which would make similar GDP growth truly exceptional."Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 index continued Wednesday's decline amid Meta Platforms' latest earnings. The social-media giant beat forecasts but also warned of a coming slowdown in advertising revenues. Here's where US indexes stood as the market opened at 9:30 a.m. on Thursday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 4,170.64, down 0.39%</li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 33,046.01, up 0.03% (10.08 points)</li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 12,766.11, down 0.43%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on: <ul><li>Meta stock's bad run continues, with its market value wipeout <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/facebook-meta-stock-price-markets-analysis-earnings-recession-advertising-slowdown-2023-10">deepening to $60 billion</a>. </li><li>Warren Buffett dumped a bunch of bank stocks <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-bank-stocks-sales-portfolio-berkshire-hathaway-financial-crisis-2023-10">before their epic tumble this year</a>.</li><li>Bill Ackman raked in $200 million from his bet against 30-year Treasury bonds, a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bill-ackman-treasury-bond-crash-short-position-profit-pershing-square-2023-10">report</a> said.</li><li>A research group said the US won't be able to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-debt-economy-bond-market-outlook-gdp-growth-interest-rates-2023-10">grow its way out of a $33 trillion debt mountain</a>. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li>Oil prices dropped, with<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti"> West Texas Intermediate</a> down 2.33% to $83.32 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 2% to $88.33 a barrel.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> edged lower 0.32% to $1,988.40 per ounce.</li><li>The<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> 10-year yield</a> dipped 1.7 basis points to 4.936%.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> slipped 1.02% to $34,310.</li></ul>

US stocks trade mixed as traders assess strongest GDP growth since 2021

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks fell sharply Thursday as data showed the US economy grew much slower than expected to start 2024. </li><li>The report also showed consumer prices rising in the quarter, complicating the Fed's rate-cut decision.</li></ul>US stocks opened lower on Thursday as the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-economy-growth-2024-4">US economic growth was weaker than expected</a> in the first three months of this year. US GDP grew by 1.6% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, well below expectations of 2.4% and far short of the 3.4% increase in the final quarter of 2023. While slower economic growth could bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, the GDP report on Thursday also showed consumer prices rising in the quarter, complicating the central bank's mission of fighting inflation without sparking an economic slowdown.The market will be focused on personal consumption expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which is due out on Friday. Bond yields jumped as traders reacted to the economic data. The 10-year Treasury rose to its highest level in five months, spiking five basis points to 4.706%. "The softer first read of Q1 GDP could shift - again- the Fed's timetable for initiating the rate easing cycle, with July coming back into play," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said after the GDP report. "If the PCE report due tomorrow similarly suggests the downward path of inflation has begun to once again gain momentum, it could serve as a catalyst for the market."Meta shares dragged the wider tech sector down Thursday, with shares of the Facebook parent plunging 15% after it reported earnings results that beat estimates but delivered disappointing guidance. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,006.32, down 1.3% </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 37,929.84, down 1.4% (531 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 15,418.33, down 1.9% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-spac-djt-ceo-letter-congress-naked-short-sellers-2024-4">Trump Media has gotten Congress involved</a> in its crusade against short sellers. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-outlook-bofa-upgrade-buy-q1-earnings-robotaxi-2024-4">Tesla has a four-part path</a> to generate 35% upside for its stock, Bank of America says. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/howard-marks-artificial-intelligence-outlook-crash-ai-investing-tech-stocks-2024-4?_gl=1*17xn7vj*_ga*Mzg2NTEyNjQzLjE3MDU0OTc0MjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxNDA0NjM5OS40MTEuMS4xNzE0MDUwMjQzLjEuMC4w">Billionaire Howard Marks says AI isn't immune to a crash</a>. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil edged up to $82.84 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, ticked up to 88.05 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.2% to $2,343.70 an ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose five basis points to 4.706%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> fell 4% to $63,154. </li></ul>

Stock market today: US indexes drop as 1st-quarter GDP growth comes in weaker than expected

The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

New Delhi [India], June 5 (ANI): The Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>)-led National Democratic Alliance (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) secured a majority in the general elections, securing a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This victory indicates continuity in policy, particularly in <keyword id="21785272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure-spending" source="keywords">infrastructure spending</keyword> and boosting domestic manufacturing, which are expected to support robust <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. However, the NDA's slim margin of victory and the BJP's loss of an outright majority in parliament may slow down more extensive economic and fiscal reforms, potentially impeding <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword> efforts. In fiscal 2023-24, India's real GDP accelerated to 8.2 per cent from 7.0 per cent the previous year, driven by significant gains in gross fixed capital formation as the government's infrastructure programs gained momentum, even as private consumption remained subdued. <keyword id="20227907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Moodys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Moody's" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Moody's">Moody's</keyword> projects India's economic strength to continue, with an anticipated real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of around 7 per cent over the three-year period from fiscal 2023-24 to 2025-26. This growth is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure development and digitalization efforts. Despite this outlook, structural weaknesses pose risks to long-term growth potential. High youth unemployment and low productivity growth in the agriculture sector constrain economic expansion. The agricultural sector's modernization has been stalled by political challenges, as evidenced by the repeal of key reforms in 2021 following widespread farmer protests. Additionally, gains in manufacturing have been uneven, limiting labour force diversification away from agriculture, which still accounts for 40 per cent of total employment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have declined over the past three years, despite a favourable geopolitical climate amid US-China tensions. This trend suggests persistent constraints within India's investment climate. To address these challenges, further structural reforms and enhanced implementation of existing initiatives, such as the production-linked incentive schemes to promote manufacturing, calibrated liberalisation of cross-border trade, and reconsideration of labour reforms, are necessary. The government's focus on fiscal consolidation is expected to continue, but significant improvements in debt ratios and interest servicing have yet to be realised. Since the trough in fiscal 2020-21, the central government's deficit has likely narrowed for three consecutive years. The interim budget for fiscal 2024-25 projects a deficit of around 5 per cent of GDP, aiming for a 4.5 per cent deficit by fiscal 2025-26. However, India's fiscal consolidation post-pandemic has not outpaced other emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, and its fiscal and debt metrics remain weaker than those of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and other Baa-rated peers globally. India's general government debt is projected to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, compared to 70.5 per cent in fiscal 2018-19. General government interest payments are forecast to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years, down from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, but still higher than the pre-pandemic ratio of less than 23 per cent. While increased budgetary allocations for infrastructure indicate an improvement in spending quality, debt servicing remains a significant portion of expenditure, reflecting ongoing constraints on fiscal flexibility. This situation underscores the need for the incoming government to balance fiscal consolidation with growth-supportive measures. The upcoming final budget for the fiscal year ending March 2025 will provide further insights into India's fiscal policy direction through 2029. As the Modi administration embarks on its third term, the focus will likely remain on sustaining economic growth while addressing the persistent <keyword id="21500054" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-challenges" source="keywords">fiscal challenges</keyword> that hinder India's long-term economic potential.

Modi 3.0 will offer policy continuity, but BJP's loss of outright majority may slow down fiscal reforms: Moody's

<ul><li>Risk aversion in <keyword id="19965036" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-stocks" source="keywords">Indian stocks</keyword> continued on Thursday morning, as the indices opened the session on a negative note.</li><li>Indian benchmark indices saw a sharp correction on Wednesday's trading session too amid selling pressure ahead of the final phase of Lok Sabha elections.</li><li>The latest decline could be partly attributable to investors booking profit at higher levels to avoid any potential risks in the market ahead of the <keyword id="21610112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-election-results" source="keywords">Lok Sabha election results</keyword>.</li></ul>Risk aversion in Indian stocks continued on Thursday morning, as the indices opened the session on a negative note. After a stellar rally over the past few weeks, markets faced some resistance this week. Indian benchmark indices saw a sharp correction on Wednesday's trading session too amid selling pressure ahead of the final phase of Lok Sabha elections. At 9.25 am, at the time of filing this report, <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> and <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> were 0.2 per cent lower each from the respective previous day's closing. Sensex is now about 1,200-1,300 points lower than its all-time high that is tasted last week. The latest decline could be partly attributable to investors booking profit at higher levels to avoid any potential risks in the market ahead of the Lok Sabha election results. Lately, barring this week, Indian stock indices continued their rally, reaching fresh lifetime highs, tracking strong global market cues, hopes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comfortable return to office, besides other strong macroeconomic fundamentals. In the past two weeks, Sensex jumped over 3,600 points, on a cumulative basis. "One strategy is to remain calm, watch the event and take a decision after the election outcome," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. "There will be heightened volatility on 3rd and 4th June. If the exit polls indicate a clear trend, which is favourable from the market perspective, buying decisions will be easy even after a spike in prices." Investors are now in a wait-and-watch mode ahead of the Lok Sabha outcome. It is now expected that further upmoves will depend on the cues from the exit poll estimates, various <keyword id="20924960" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic-data" source="keywords">macroeconomic data</keyword> that are scheduled later during the week, Q4 India <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword>, and US inflation data. India's GDP grew at a massive 8.4 per cent during the October-December quarter of the financial year 2023-24, and the country continued to remain the fastest-growing major economy. India grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, respectively. Meanwhile, US markets too are in the red. Morgan Stanley in its latest outlook report said most equity and fixed-income markets is largely positive heading into the second half of 2024, as global interest rate cuts are finally on the horizon. The European Central Bank is likely to start cutting in June, the Bank of England in August with the U.S. Federal Reserve predicted to follow in September. Morgan Stanley Research sees global equities bringing positive returns this year, helped by the macroeconomic environment and the potential for increases in corporate earnings. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-wwdc-2024-to-begin-with-keynote-on-june-10-event-schedule-what-to-expect-and-more/articleshow/110537952.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-wwdc-2024-to-begin-with-keynote-on-june-10-event-schedule-what-to-expect-and-more/articleshow/110537952.cms" target="_blank">Apple WWDC 2024 to begin with keynote on June 10 – event schedule, what to expect and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/adani-paytm-deal-both-one97-communications-and-adani-group-deny-reports-as-baseless-and-speculative/articleshow/110530843.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/adani-paytm-deal-both-one97-communications-and-adani-group-deny-reports-as-baseless-and-speculative/articleshow/110530843.cms" target="_blank">Adani-Paytm Deal: Both One97 Communications and Adani Group deny reports as ‘baseless’ and ‘speculative’</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/jiocinema-launches-new-annual-ad-free-subscription-plan-at-a-discount/articleshow/110486706.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/jiocinema-launches-new-annual-ad-free-subscription-plan-at-a-discount/articleshow/110486706.cms" target="_blank">JioCinema launches new annual ad-free subscription plan at a discount</a>

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