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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks rose Thursday as investors digested strong retail sales data and more earnings.</li><li>Retail sales data showed US consumer spending remains robust, with monthly spending up 0.4%.</li></ul>US stocks climbed on Thursday as traders saw better-than-expected retail sales data and continued to digest strong corporate earnings reports.The Dow Jones Industrial Average added to record levels achieved at Wednesday's close. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury up six basis points to 4.075%. September's retail sales report showed consumer spending remains strong, with monthly spending up 0.4% from August, just above a Dow Jones consensus estimate of 0.3%.Retail sales climbed 1.7% compared to a year ago, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday.The strong spending data comes on the heels of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">blockbuster September jobs report</a>, and further solidifies assessments that the US economy is strong and that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates as steeply or quickly as previously thought. Weekly jobless claims were lower than expected at 241,000, a 19,000 decline from the week before, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Economists had forecast 260,000 weekly claims. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,873.45, up 0.53% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,279.21, up 0.47% (+201.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,523.24, up 0.85% </li></ul>Meanwhile, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-stock-price-q3-earnings-chip-stocks-asml-nvidia-amd-2024-10">highly anticipated report</a> from chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company came in strong, showing net income surpassed estimates while net revenue for the quarter rose 36% compared to the same last year."We have talked to our customers all the time, including our hyperscaler customers who are building their own chips. And almost every AI innovator is working with TSMC," TSMC chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said.Shares of TSMC rose 7% after the opening bell, pulling other chip stocks higher. Nvidia was up almost 2%, and AMD was up over 1%.TSMC's optimism about demand for AI tech follows a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-tumble-asml-guidance-semiconductor-nvidia-chip-growth-2024-10?_gl=1*1isprkj*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE2NTYwMS4yODIuMS4xNzI5MTY3OTk1LjM0LjAuMA..">chip sector sell-off</a> earlier this week when chip machine maker ASML slashed its sales guidance on weaker demand from chipmakers.TSMC joins a string of strong earnings reports this week. Morgan Stanley and United Airlines posted strong results on Wednesday. Netflix will report third-quarter results after the close on Thursday. Here's what else is going on Thursday:<ul><li>A number of bank research desks are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10?_gl=1*njfdt3*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE2NTYwMS4yODIuMS4xNzI5MTY2MzczLjYwLjAuMA..">boosting their S&amp;P 500 price targets</a> in recent weeks as the bull market charges on.</li><li>China could raise nearly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-beijing-stimulus-1-trillion-debt-package-fiscal-deficit-2024-10">$1 trillion of fresh debt</a> in the next 3 years to revive its economy, according to a report from Caixin Global.</li><li>The US freight recession is showing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/filip-de-mott">early signs of recovery</a> as trucking company JB Hunt posted a rare earnings beat on Tuesday.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures fell. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> dipped 0.2% to $70.22 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.3% to $74.01 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.33% to $2,700.4 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up six basis points to 4.075%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> dipped 1.5% to $66,761.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes gain after strong retail sales data

It took something surprisingly small — something that's been described as "teeny tiny" and "ultra-cropped" — to propel <keyword id="19948011" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Prada" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Prada" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Prada">Prada</keyword> to its place as one of the year's few luxury winners. In fact, it measures under 10 inches long. <keyword id="20885719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Miu-Miu" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Miu Miu" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Miu Miu">Miu Miu</keyword>'s micro miniskirt, which debuted in 2021 and subsequently went viral, taking over both TikTok and magazine front covers, is emblematic of the brand's show-stopping couple of years — and has no doubt helped its parent company, Prada, do what few luxury companies have been able to do this year: grow. "I think the 'miracle' at Prada is Miu Miu," Luca Solca, a senior analyst at Bernstein, told Business Insider. Thanks to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miu-miu-revenue-jumps-93-gen-z-asia-sales-prada-2024-7">Miu Miu's hot streak</a>, as well as a series of smart business moves at Prada itself — a focus on a controlled retail pipeline and store productivity, plus some experienced new hires — the company is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zara-inditex-pandora-thrive-amid-luxury-downturn-aspirational-consumer-trends-2024-9">bucking negative luxury trends</a>. It's selling well in Asia, its stock is up, and investors are excited. Net revenue for the first half of the year was 14% higher than in the same period in 2023 and 34% more than 2022. At luxury bellwethers LVMH and Kering, first-half sales fell 1% and 11%, respectively, compared to last year.Its stock is up more than 30% year-to-date, even more than that of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hermes-became-ultimate-status-symbol-2024-2">Hermès, luxury's perennial market leader</a>. Along with Moncler, it's one of only two buy-rated luxury stocks at HSBC. The 111-year-old, family-run, Milanese leather goods shop turned cutting-edge fashion superhouse is now enjoying one of its greatest runs in history. <h2>The trendy little sister</h2>As any elder sibling knows well, sometimes the flashy, fun younger sister can outshine even the most well-prepared eldest. Miu Miu is doing just that. The more experimental brand has become the "It" girl of the fashion industry. It's number two on The Lyst Fashion Index, a quarterly measure of the hottest fashion brands. Searches for Miu Miu are up 47% this year on luxury resale platform The RealReal. The micro minis that stormed the runway in 2021, a sneaker collab with New Balance, and the quilted Wander bags have become must-have looks. That's translated into impressive results: <keyword id="19957111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-sales" source="keywords">Retail sales</keyword> were up 50% in 2023 and 86% in the first half of this year. Last quarter, website traffic was up 110% year over year, Stifel's Rogerio Fujimori reported in his July note. The brand will likely hit $1 billion in revenue this year. <div type="image" title="Miu Miu micro miniskirt" height="3109" width="4663" msid="113815737" hostid="261"></div>Part of it is the brand's messaging. "Miu Miu is resonating with consumers because of a savvy mix of product and communication marketing," Solca said. In a recent note, he highlighted the brand's events — a tennis club, literary club, and film series — that go beyond just fashion to form a "cultural aesthetic." Miu Miu has embraced stars (Sydney Sweeney and Gigi Hadid were featured in recent campaigns), which has energized its following. The brand has also managed to tap into Asian markets — one of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-luxury-retail-sales-slowdown-brands-fashion-2024-7">most challenging sectors for luxury brands</a>. Again, some smart marketing has helped. The brand enlisted K-pop icons as ambassadors and dressed Chinese stars Lexie Liu, Zhao Jinmai, and Wu Yanshu. It also increased spending on Little Red Book, a social media platform in China, and threw events in Tokyo, Taipei, and Nanjing. In short — pun intended — you can't get trendier than Miu Miu right now, and being trendy is good for business. <h2>The business behind the boom</h2>But Miu Miu's popularity, as attention-grabbing as it is, is only part of the story. The brand accounted for 15% of Prada's sales last year. HSBC analysts called its growth a "(big) cherry on the cake" — the cake being Prada (which didn't respond to a request for comment from Business Insider for this story). Behind Miu Miu's Mary Jane shoes and Arcade bags is a success story at its parent company. The group's namesake line is growing, albeit at a slower and steadier pace. Prada's retail sales were up 3% in the first half of the year compared to last year and 7% in 2023. It's been among Lyst's top five hottest brands since 2022. This didn't happen by accident: In 2017, Prada committed to a turnaround strategy following a few losing yearsand a drop in profitability. At more than 100 years old, Prada hadn't entered the new millennium: Its full product line wasn't available through e-commerce, and its advertising wasn't digitized. "In 2015, the tide really turned for them," Jelena Sokolova, a senior analyst for Morningstar, told Business Insider. "They fared worse than the industry: Sales were negative for a number of years; their earnings plummeted." In response, Prada focused on retail, a channel in which it can control prices and cut back on wholesale, which now represents only 11% of sales. It made an effort to cut down on discounts — a problem that has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-burberry-became-fashions-biggest-fail-stock-drop-ceo-ousting-2024-8">plagued labels like Burberry</a> and Gucci and can lead to diminishing brand perception. At its retail stores, new CEO Andrea Guerra, who arrived in 2023 from LVMH, has drilled down on productivity, or how much money each square foot of retail space generates, by launching in-store installations, forming one-to-one relationships between sales associates and customers, and infusing stores with wearable pieces and collaborations. The company closed stores that weren't performing and renovated the ones that were. It's worked: Retail productivity has increased 32.5% between 2019 and 2023. <div type="image" title="Prada store" height="3333" width="5000" msid="113815742" hostid="261"></div>There has also been a slew of management changes. In 2020, the company brought on Raf Simons, heralded as one of the biggest stars in the design world, as co-creative director, sharing the title with Muccia Prada — the company's billionaire heiress who The New York Times has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/style/miu-miu-chanel-louis-vuitton-paris-fashion-week.html">referred</a> to as "the most influential woman in fashion." Prada now has more time to use her keen sense of design at Miu Miu. In the years following, it recruited talent from LVMH and Goldman Sachs to join its top ranks. And then there is the sheer cyclicality of fashion and the fact that, after a few years of being less-than-hot, Prada is once again on the rise. It has embraced the 1990s and Y2K aesthetic — a heyday for Prada — popular with Gen Z and was the most searched brand among the demographic on The RealReal. Hit products pushed the profitable leather goods category to revenues of more than $2 billion last year. There was a reimagining of the early 2010s it-bag, the Galleria, complete with a Scarlett Johansson-led campaign. Other handbag rereleases, like that of the Nylon, have taken off, while new purse styles like the Buckle and Arqué got callouts in last year's earnings report. That momentum gave the brand an upper hand going into the luxury downturn. "People prioritize which brands they want to spend on. With a limited budget, first, you drop the ones that were not hot to begin with," Sokolova said. <h2>Can Prada's hot streak last?</h2>Just as fashion comes in, it can come out. And Prada's story — particularly Miu Miu's rapid-fire growth — in some ways mimics that of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gucci-sales-profit-reputation-falling-luxury-kering-michele-china-2024-5">Gucci's hype-driven rise and plummeting fall under Alessandro Michele</a>. "You kind of become a victim of your own success," Sokolova said. Both Prada and Miu Miu are susceptible to volatility, though for different reasons. Miu Miu is still relatively small, meaning its brand identity is not yet established enough to withstand the whims of consumers. CEO Guerra has acknowledged that such incredible growth can lead to a challenge. "There appears to be a glass ceiling," Solca wrote in a recent note. "Being prominent brings fatigue: after a while, consumers feel they have seen and done enough with these brands and move on." Prada, meanwhile, is more exposed in the cyclical ready-to-wear category — which makes up 32% of sales — than other brands like Gucci and YSL. But there are signs of continued growth: Miu Miu is adding 10 to 15 stores next year, while Prada is adding five to 10, the company has said. The brand's retail footprint is particularly underpenetrated in the US. The company's beauty business is still nascent. Last year, it launched skincare and makeup through a partnership with L'Oréal, and there is more money to be made in that sector. With so much control of its sales chain, the company can raise prices and limit overexposure through low-end collaborations or expansion into cheap categories. Plus, the slowdown hasn't happened yet: Miu Miu website traffic and sales continued to grow between the first and second quarters, and the company maintains it's not a flash in the pan. "This is a result of many years of work on the brand, on the products, on the people," Guerra said about Miu Miu's success on the company's most recent earnings call. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prada-white-tank-top-status-symbol-2024-2">Prada has maintained its brand value</a>. But the woman Miuccia Prada herself knows the pressure is on. "I was very nervous for this show," she told reporters backstage at the line's fashion show earlier this month about the new collection, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/20/style/prada-fendi-milan-fashion-week.html">The New York Times reported</a>. "Much more than usual." September 30, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the name of Miuccia Prada.

How Prada is beating the odds and bucking the luxury slump 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks raced to record highs after the 2024 presidential election concluded.</li><li>Investors seem certain that President-elect Donald Trump's policies are best for stocks.</li></ul>Wall Street is in love with Donald Trump, as if there was ever any doubt.A robust, multi-year bull market rally for US stocks reached another gear after the businessman-turned-politician <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">won the presidential election</a>. The S&amp;P 500 just topped 6,000 for the first time ever, and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is also in uncharted territory.Traders are convinced that the bulk of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">Trump's economic policies</a>, which include tax cuts and fewer government regulations, will create a business-friendly backdrop that drives stocks higher."Investor sentiment is pro-growth, pro-deregulation, and pro-markets," said David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group, in recent commentary sent to Business Insider.<h2 id="3e5bdf8a-fc97-4e3d-a950-f23703f0015e">'Animal spirits' have been unleashed</h2>While some are skeptical of the consensus view, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-trump-president-economy-tariffs-trade-war-kelly-2024-11">including those who are terrified about tariffs</a>, it looks as if investors broadly are scrambling to add exposure to equities. A staggering $22 billion flowed into exchange-traded funds on Wednesday, which was more than four times higher than the previous record for the day after the US election, according to State Street Global Advisors.Markets may hate uncertainty even more than tax hikes, so it's possible that a Kamala Harris win also could have sparked a relief rally.But that might dismiss how ecstatic big-money investors are about another Trump term, given that the S&amp;P 500 rose over 50% from his victory in 2016 until shortly before the pandemic."Business animal spirits could be rekindled once again from Trump's pro-business approach, which could lead to a more robust capital expenditures and investment environment," said Jeff Schulze, the head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, in commentary.That term, "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/animal-spirits.asp">animal spirits,</a>" was coined in the 1930s by famed economist John Maynard Keynes, who remarked that investors' decisions are often driven by intense emotions like greed and fear.Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise's chief market strategist, borrowed Keynes' famous phrase to make the same point as Schulze: investors may be euphoric for the foreseeable future."Animal spirits through year-end could push major averages higher as the overhang of the election is removed and investors look to put excess cash to work in stocks," Saglimbene said in commentary.<h2 id="648d2368-71e0-40ed-9ed5-95b7faf9578c">How to invest after Trump's win</h2>Although the US economy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-tariffs-trump-trade-war-slowdown-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-10">looks healthy by most measures</a>, many market strategists are counting on an even bigger boom under Trump that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-election-investing-strategy-2016-comparison-morgan-stanley-2024-11">would benefit economically sensitive stocks</a>."This broad 'risk-on' mood for the U.S. stock market is cutting across all sectors, but particularly favoring more cyclically sensitive sectors that would benefit from a re-strengthening of the economy and tailwinds to corporate profitability," said Jim Baird, the chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in written commentary sent to BI.Sectors that are heavily reliant on economic growth, like energy and financials, will stay hot, said Sébastien Page, the head of global multi-asset at T. Rowe Price, in a recent interview."I don't think it's over the top," Page said of the postelection market rally.Several of the strategists and investment chiefs that Business Insider leaned on for this story also cited small caps as a top idea, provided that the economy stays strong and taxes fall."Enough people had been worried about, 'Could we have a credit cycle? Could we have an economic slowdown into next year? What would increases in taxes and regulation do?'" said Sean Gallagher, the global head of Lazard's small-cap equity platform, in an interview.He continued: "Now that's off the table. I think it just increases small-business optimism. I think it'll increase <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalexpenditure.asp">CapEx</a>, which has been kind of held back."Smaller companies performed admirably early on in Trump's first tenure, though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-strong-growth-market-outlook-garp-bmo-2024-10">they've lagged large caps for years</a>. Gallagher is highly optimistic about the group again, both because of the economic environment and their valuations, which are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-small-mid-caps-market-rotation-outlook-bmo-2024-10">startlingly cheap relative to their peers</a>.Schulze from ClearBridge is also aboard the cyclical and small caps train. The strategist is fired up about what Trump's penchant for lower taxes and limited regulations means for industrials, consumer discretionary stocks, and financials.Saglimbene from Ameriprise concurred again that "the backdrop for financials could improve, as less regulation and the potential for merger/acquisition and capital market activity accelerate."Add the technology sector to the list of winners from less governmental oversight, Bahnsen said. Tech companies seem like a clearer beneficiary since the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) should be less hostile to their interests.For all the optimism in markets, some strategists are branching out from stocks.Jim Thorne, who's the chief market strategist at Canada-based wealth management firm Wellington-Altus, said in commentary that he's most interested in gold and bitcoin, which some have referred to as the yellow metal's digital doppelgänger.The world is awash with cash, making scarce assets like gold and bitcoin more valuable, and Thorne also noted that global economic growth is slowing. That suggests that the path forward for risk assets may not be smooth — even if Trump is successful in his second term."Investors should brace for volatility and shifts in market leadership as we transition to a peacetime economy, shaped by Trump's policies," Thorne said in written commentary.

'Animal spirits': 7 market strategists share how to ride the red wave as US stocks surge to new records

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street's bullishness for Nvidia stock endures even as shares trade at record highs. </li><li>Analysts are upbeat about the next-gen Blackwell chip and Nvidia's web of enterprise partnerships.</li></ul>Nvidia stock is trading at record highs, but that's not deterring top Wall Street analysts from being bullish. Bank analysts have been hiking their price targets for the chip titan in recent weeks, predicting more upside even as the stock has seen a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-blackwell-ai-market-value-costco-jensen-huang-2024-10">meteoric rise</a> over the past year.Shares traded above $142 each on Monday, hitting a fresh record as investors gear up for the company's next earnings report on November 20. The stock is up 193% year-to-date. But Nvidia still has plenty of room to climb, according to forecasters. They point to signs of frenzied demand for the company's AI-enabling GPU chips and a long list of partnerships with enterprise "hyperscalers." Here's what some of Wall Street's top forecasters are saying about their bullish outlook for the stock. <h3 id="724900f4-99db-4302-98bd-dea4cac3d847">Bank of America, $190 price target</h3>BofA strategists <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-upside-growth-ai-chips-demand-bofa-2024-10#:~:text=Bank%20of%20America%20analysts%20raised,helped%20by%20its%20enterprise%20partnerships.">raised their price target</a> for the chipmaker to $190 from $165 per share last week, implying another 35% upside from the stock's current levels.The upside will be driven by Nvidia's competitive advantage over other chipmakers, as well as the "generational opportunity" in the AI market, which is expected to grow to $400 billion, analysts said in a note."Driven by our increased NVDA Data Center Compute outlook, we now see the AI accelerator market growing to $280bn by CY27E (and over time toward $400bn+) from just ~$45bn in CY23. AI models (demand) continue to evolve," the bank added.Strategists pointed to positive signs for Nvidia's future chip demand, including commentary from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-impact-q1-earnings-season-ai-nvda-stock-price-capex-2024-5">other tech firms</a> and comments from CEO Jensen Huang, who described the demand for Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell chip as "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-jensen-huang-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-2024-10">insane</a>."Nvidia, meanwhile, also has a number of "underappreciated" business partnerships with firms like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/acn-stock">Accenture</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-reaction-microsoft-partnership-for-minecraft-graphics-overhaul-2019-8">Microsoft</a>, which should contribute to the upside potential. "We also highlight a growing presence of AI in enterprise, where NVDA is the partner of choice," the bank said. "NVDA's engagements span multiple verticals (e.g., Accenture, ServiceNow, Microsoft), and offerings such as AI Foundry, AI Hubs, NIMs are key levers to its AI leadership, not only on the hardware side but also on systems/ecosystems side."<h3 id="6a528da2-bcac-4a58-87fb-9d0b14415a80">Goldman Sachs, $150 price target</h3>Goldman analysts raised their price target to $150 from $135 a share, implying 6% upside from the stock's current levels.Strategists said they changed their price target after a meeting with Huang. The Nvidia CEO spoke of the company's advantage over other chipmakers, and the bank said that Nvidia's "competitive moat" is built on the firm's installed base, its innovation, and its "robust and growing" software offerings. "Although we acknowledge that the company's revenue trajectory beyond CY2025 remains uncertain, we expect the stock to perform at least consistent with estimate revisions given relative valuation multiples that remain depressed relative to history ... and the potential for a re-acceleration in fundamentals driven by the upcoming Blackwell product cycle," strategists wrote.Blackwell could also help produce several billion dollars in revenue for Nvidia, the strategists estimated."By integrating seven chips, and each playing a role in delivering higher performance at the data center level, we view the introduction and ramp of Blackwell not only as a near- and medium-term revenue growth driver, but also a dynamic that extends Nvidia's competitive advantage. The ramp of Blackwell-based products remains on track with several billion dollars in revenue expected in the January quarter followed by further growth in April and beyond."<h3 id="7231a134-d8fb-40e0-8065-37b2205636b4">CFRA Research, $160 price target</h3>The research firm CFRA raised its price target to $160 from $139 per share, implying a 13% upside from current levels. According to Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA, that's due to increased confidence that Nvidia will post better-than-expected growth, particularly as customers scramble to get their hands on the new Blackwell chip."The higher multiple and target reflect our higher conviction that NVDA will post results that exceed our/consensus views in CY 25, as Blackwell ramps. As we previously cited, Blackwell will take greater wallet share from hyperscalers (e.g., greater GPU, CPU, networking, and software revenue) amid an AI war in the cloud," Zino wrote.<h3 id="1efd5f91-dce2-45d4-bfa2-1ada5f7366f2">Bernstein, $155 price target</h3>Bernstein raised its price target to $155 a share shortly after the chipmaker reported its second-quarter earnings in August. Similar to other firms' forecasts, Bernstein's upside prediction is based on the success of the Blackwell GPU. "People are getting excited about the story again, especially as we approach earnings, and then year-end into next year is their new platform, Blackwell, really starts to ramp. Look, by all indications, their own commentary, all the supply checks and everything else, demand for this product just looks off the charts," Rasgon said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SM8AcE18AN0">CNBC</a> in early October. "This cycle, if the checks are any indication, must potentially be massive," he added.

Wall Street keeps raising price targets for sky-high Nvidia stock. Here's why analysts are still so bullish. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks have rallied postelection, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.5% since last Tuesday.</li><li>Bob Elliott sees potential for continued upside due to expected tax cuts and lower regulation.</li></ul>Investors have enjoyed an almost-everything rally in US stocks since the presidential election, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.5% since then.While some strategists and money managers have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-trump-trade-dot-com-bubble-sp500-smead-2024-11">warned the surge</a> has only pushed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">high valuations</a> even higher, Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds, thinks the upswing can keep going.In a November 7 interview with Business Insider, the former executive at Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund by assets under management, said that the likely outcome of a red sweep means that investors will begin to account for the benefits of tax cuts and lower regulation more than they might have under a divided government outcome."There's most likely more room to run to price in that expansionary fiscal policy ahead," Elliott said. "Valuations are certainly elevated, but the power of over-easy monetary and fiscal policy, relative to conditions, is likely stronger than any concern about valuation in the near-term for most investors."Not only have investor expectations been adjusted, but the uncertainty that has kept many investors in safer assets has now been removed and should leave more inflows, Elliott said."A lot of the clouds have cleared, and so it's very likely we see those folks who remained cautious through this week start to allocate capital, particularly through the end of the year," he said.In terms of fiscal policy, Elliott said that Republicans would likely extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which will keep corporate and individual taxes lower than they were likely to have defaulted to under a Democratic administration or split government.The amount of mergers and acquisitions should also increase thanks to lower regulations, he said.Tariffs and the large-scale deportation of migrants would be aspects of Trump's agenda that could be damaging to growth, Elliott added, though it's unclear how likely these initiatives are to be carried out, For example, tariffs could just be bargaining chips being put forth by Trump to negotiate new trade terms with other countries."We probably won't really know what that path will look like until the second half of 2025," he said.Until then, the outlook is bullish for "everything but bonds," Elliott said.But three areas within the broader stock market should be primed for more upside than others. A solid macroeconomic backdrop and falling rates have typically been factors that are good for cheaper stocks, he said, and they should get more of a boost relative to other areas of the market in the near future."When you get these types of conditions where you have reasonably strong economic conditions and a loosening or an easing of policy, that often will cause liquidity to take advantage of or flow to unloved corners of the market," he said.He continued: "So areas that have been underperforming — things like small-caps, energy stocks, financials — areas like that that just have not seen the sort of top-line demand that things like tech stocks have seen."Investors can gain exposure to these areas of the market through funds like the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/vanguard-small-index-fund-etf-shares-us9229087518?miRedirects=2">VB</a>), the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=2">XLE</a>), and the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=2">IYF</a>).

A former Bridgewater executive shares why the stock-market rally has room to run — and 3 'unloved' trades primed for a boost

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Intel has been driving lots of retail chatter and stock purchases in recent days.</li><li>The chipmaker's stock has tanked this year, and a poorly timed investment has tickled Reddit users.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gamestop-roaring-kitty-gme-stock-price-rally-meme-traders-wallstreetbets-2024-6">GameStop</a>. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bed-bath-and-beyond-rise-and-fall-photos-2020-1">Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</a>. Intel?The microchip maker isn't an obvious choice to become the next big meme stock, but it's generating a bunch of buzz on Reddit's WallStreetBets subreddit.Early on Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/intc-stock">Intel</a> ranked fifth on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">Swaggy Stocks</a>' list of trending stocks on WSB over the past week, and sixth on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apewisdom.io/wallstreetbets/">Ape Wisdom</a>'s list for the past 24 hours.Retail investors have also been piling money into the chipmaker. Vanda Research's retail flow tracker shows it was the fifth most popular stock in the five trading days through August 13, attracting $162 million in net retail purchases.Intel only trailed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-secret-sauce-regulators-gpu-chips-jensen-huang-2024-7">Nvidia</a> ($1.4 billion), AMD ($259 million), Palantir ($189 million), and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla">Tesla</a> ($164 million). It outpaced the likes of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple">Apple</a> ($155 million) and Microsoft ($147 million).Vanda analysts noted that overall net retail purchases have surged this month, "far exceeding even our most bullish expectations" as investors capitalized on the "chunkiest dip since April." Demand has cooled since the start of August but purchases continue to hover near a 12-month high of $1.4 billion a day, the analysts added.<h2 id="6147f58a-e5b6-4b95-915b-ddb73c3e2d40">Why Intel?</h2>Intel stock has plunged by about 60% this year to about $20, its lowest level in over a decade. On August 2, it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/intel-stock-price-layoffs-weak-guidance-missed-analyst-estimates-semiconductors-2024-8">tanked as much as 30%</a> — its steepest one-day decline in over 30 years — after Intel's second-quarter earnings revealed plans to lay off some 15,000 staff, or 15% of its total workforce, and guided toward lower revenues than Wall Street expected.The company's net assets were valued at $115 billion at the end of June, about $30 billion higher than its current market capitalization.Meme-stock investors are known for finding beaten-down stocks to purchase en masse, but they also love to buy into funny stories and back colorful characters like GameStop guru <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gamestop-investor-deepfuckingvalue-roaring-kitty-reddit-stocks-wall-street-2021-1-1030022004">Keith "Roaring Kitty" Gill</a>.In Intel's case, some of the excitement seems to have been sparked by a WSB post from the user u/Sad_Nefariousness10. In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ehjuzj/i_bought_700k_worth_of_intel_stock_today/">post</a> on August 1, the user claimed they'd received an $800,000 inheritance from their grandmother, had invested $700,000 of it in Intel that day, and planned to hold the chip stock for at least 10 years.It appears to have been a dismally timed purchase, given Intel crashed by over a quarter after the market closed that day. The user <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1eiktnw/ok_i_definitely_picked_the_wrong_day_to_buy_intel/">posted</a> an update the next day showing their investment had shrunk by $204,000 on paper to below $500,000, but they still planned to hold the stock for the next decade. BI was unable to confirm the posts' veracity.The user's ill fortune sent the forum into fits of laughter, but appears to have spurred others to get in on the joke by investing large sums in Intel stock.BI spoke to four Reddit users who've claimed in recent posts on WSB to have invested in Intel stock. BI has not verified their claims so they should be treated with skepticism. Here are their comments on Intel, lightly edited for length and clarity:<h2 id="47a56c4f-589b-4a63-b3f8-fa0b49fef9a7">1. u/Smallmem</h2>"I'm investing big into Intel primarily because it's a cheap stock basically trading at book value, and investing into it is a bet against international trade; if the US decides to not be completely reliant on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chip-tsmc-taiwan-semiconductor-trillion-market-cap-nvidia-ai-asml-2024-7">Taiwan Semiconductor</a>, which I believe it must, Intel stock will rise quickly."The Intel Grandma post was an incredible post because of the incredible timing. You have someone invest $700k of their inheritance into stocks, not even options, and it plummets down $200k by the end of the day; it's hilarious. And the framing of it being his grandma's inheritance has proven even funnier."WallStreetBets has always been about people gambling stupid large sums of money into dumb investments, and it's even funnier when it's in a currently failing company like Intel. I personally posted myself buying Intel because I felt for the kid; he made a gigantic play as his first investment and lost a bunch of money immediately."While most of WallStreetBets (including me) throw money in the trash playing options hoping to score millions and make a funny post on Reddit when we lose, he was planning to set and forget INTC for 10 years! It was terribly unfortunate timing that did him in. He's still holding INTC though, which shows his commitment! I wish him the best."u/Smallmem told BI he's 22, studying for a master's in computer science, and owns around $20,000 of Intel stock. He said Intel is unlikely to take off like other meme stocks as its market value is too high, and there are fewer casual investors who are bored and stuck at home than during the pandemic. But he suggested the buzz around the stock could lead professional investors to buy in, pushing up its price.<h2 id="1dc7ac34-5ef3-4e02-9611-ecbfe9818ac0">2. u/randomGov</h2>"I can buy a 1) nationally strategically important company, 2) with a huge moat (only a few can spend 100+ billion to compete), 3) for less than its TANGIBLE book value, 4) that has spent more than its current market cap on capex into fabs (good chance of future significant returns), 5) making stuff (chips) the future (AI, EVs, and other tech) is built on, 6) with a good chance of being a tech leader."u/randomGOV <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ere2ri/the_halfregarded_grandson/">posted</a> an unconfirmed screenshot of his portfolio showing a $227,000 investment in Intel.<div type="image" title="Laptops with Intel chips on display at CES 2024 in Las Vegas." height="683" width="1024" msid="112566306" hostid="261" sizebytes="72748"></div><h2 id="a324d94e-299a-4ffe-b4af-cf781652477a">3. u/wedge754</h2>"I think it has the potential to become a meme stock, it's not there yet. I think it's oversold and people are forgetting how broad Intel's market actually is. Intel is the US largest chip manufacturer, I don't see them going down without a fight. Most importantly, I'm thinking a new CEO is on the horizon. Intel has a ton of upside potential if they can just get their act together."I've been watching Intel since the COVID/AI boom and how Intel basically stagnated. The recent big drop seemed like the time to jump in — I'm hoping the negative attention puts pressure on them to restructure. The meme posts are just icing on the cake."u/wedge754 told BI he's invested about $25,000 into Intel.<h2 id="9f2bce18-f869-47a7-8817-a1dcfb4a6d98">4. dc_chilling17</h2>"I'm betting big because the outlook for the company is super bright. The market is putting too much weight on margin pressure, which is a direct result of their capex buildout for their foundry business. When the market realizes that Intel is going to be the Fedex to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chip-tsmc-taiwan-semiconductor-trillion-market-cap-nvidia-ai-asml-2024-7">TSMC</a>'s UPS, and that the margins are being squeezed due to a perfect storm of events vs a flaw in the business itself, things will turn around."They will IPO Altera for north of $30 billion. Mobileye is probably worth $15-20 billion a year from now. Back those out, you're telling me that one of the largest chip companies in the world by revenue, with a monopoly on manufacturing with respect to the West, is worth $30-40 billion?"Meanwhile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lisa-su-amd-billionaire-jensen-huang-nvidia-cousin-2024-4">AMD</a>, their little brother with a fraction of the market share and no fabs is worth $220 billion? It's just a market dislocation. I bought Exxon at $39, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta">Meta</a> at $89, and now Intel at $19. The play is obvious. The market will wake up to it."dc_chilling17 told BI he has a $1.1 million position in Intel.

Intel is having a meme-stock moment. 4 retail investors explain why they're betting on the chipmaker. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! A Sam's Club with robots making pizza and no cash registers could be the new norm for the warehouse club. CEO Chris Nicholas spoke to BI about what he wants <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sams-club-ceo-chris-nicholas-interview-2024-10">shopping "in the future" to feel like</a>.In today's big story, Goldman Sachs thinks the past decade of big returns from the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">is coming to a close</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Americans' rising pile of debt <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10">is making banks nervous</a>.</li><li>Tech: SoftBank-backed creator-economy startup <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jellysmack-layoffs-restructuring-creator-economy-influencer-content-softbank-investment-2024-10">Jellysmack is cutting staff</a>.</li><li>Business: New York magazine and Olivia Nuzzi are <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-magazine-parting-ways-olivia-nuzzi-third-party-investigation-2024-10">parting ways</a>.</li></ul>But first, is this the end?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">A new era for stocks?</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of moody Standard &amp; Poor's sign" height="1440" width="1920" msid="114468948" hostid="261" sizebytes="207764"></div>Forget the economy; Goldman Sachs is projecting a hard landing for future stock returns.The bank's portfolio strategy research team forecasts the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">will see annualized returns of 3% over the next decade</a>, writes BI's Filip De Mott.That'd be a sharp comedown for stock investors, who have enjoyed 13% in annualized returns for the major index over the past 10 years.Setting aside the market's recent strength, Goldman's forecast still isn't great. Annualized returns of 3% would put it in the 7th percentile of performance since 1930.Goldman's rationale for the pessimistic take includes two things even a rookie investor can appreciate: The market is overvalued AND too concentrated.Currently, the S&amp;P 500 cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is 38, well above the index's average of 22. And the usual suspects — tech giants like Nvidia and Meta — have done much of the heavy lifting in helping the S&amp;P 500 to record highs.<div type="image" title="Wall Street sign with New York Stock Exchange building in the back." height="4162" width="6243" msid="114468943" hostid="261" sizebytes="1226440"></div>Not everyone agrees with Goldman's forecast.This very newsletter recently included commentary from experts who said <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">the two-year-old bull market still had plenty of gas left in the tank</a>.It seems the only industry consensus we have about stocks' future is there is no consensus. Case in point: Goldman is bullish on a short-term perspective, recently <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">raising its year-end S&amp;P 500 price target</a>.BI's Matthew Fox has a rundown on predictions from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-wall-street-bull-bear-predictions-economy-inflation-2024-10">the bulls, the bears, and those somewhere in the middle</a>.UBS, for example, sees <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-us-economy-no-landing-ubs-2024-10">another big gain for the S&amp;P 500 next year</a>, writes BI's Jennifer Sor.The bank said a "no landing" for the US economy means the S&amp;P 500 could rise roughly 13% from its current levels. Inflation would remain somewhat elevated in the scenario, but the bank still sees room for the Fed to cut rates, which is bullish for stocks.On the other side of the spectrum are JPMorgan, which has maintained its bearish outlook this year in the face of a surging market, and Stifel, which has predicted a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp500-prediction-bubble-overvalued-stifel-outlook-2024-10">massive market downturn in 2025</a>.At the center of the debate sits artificial intelligence. Bears point to the tech as overinflating valuations with little to no evidence of it meaningfully driving revenue. Bulls say the hype is warranted, as the impact of AI is inevitable, like the rise of the internet.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Flight logs show Elon Musk's private jets are busy hitting swing states as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-private-jet-hits-swing-states-campaigns-donald-trump-2024-10">he campaigns for Trump</a>.</li><li>Ex-Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal has moved his AI startup out of stealth, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-twitter-ceo-parag-agrawal-ai-startup-stealth-parallel-2024-10">calling it Parallel</a>.</li><li>'The million-dollar question of this election': Women's health startups are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/womens-health-startups-risk-trump-wins-election-2024-10">confronting a shifting legal landscape</a>.</li><li>Putin's expanded BRICS summit proves he has friends — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">but risks buckling under its own contradictions</a>.</li><li>Medicare coverage will change in 2025. Some boomers are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/medicare-changes-increase-costs-deductibles-prescription-drugs-premiums-copays-2024-10">already struggling to keep up with their medical bills</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of New York's Financial District" height="500" width="1000" msid="114469218" hostid="261" sizebytes="114610"></div><ol><li>Big banks brace for losses as Americans' debt piles up. US consumers and businesses are struggling to pay off auto, credit, and commercial real-estate debt. In response, US banks have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10">steadily increased their cash reserves</a> in anticipation of loan losses. (But don't fear the worst; cash reserves are still far from Great Depression levels.)</li><li>Profits, not politics. Bank of America doesn't see November's election substantially impacting the stock market. Share price movement is driven by profit growth, and policies' impact on a sector <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">can be the opposite of what investors expect</a>.</li><li>A famed short-seller doesn't want beef with Tesla. The EV giant reports earnings on Wednesday, but Carson Block <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-short-seller-block-wont-elon-musk-valuation-2024-10">won't be betting against Elon Musk's company</a>. The investor known for his short bets said Tesla's massive size and Musk's ability to pull "rabbits out of the hat constantly" means he'll steer clear.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Jellysmack's jellyfish symbol glitching" height="900" width="1200" msid="114469221" hostid="261" sizebytes="37624"></div><ol><li>A creator-economy startup is laying off staff and pointing the finger at Meta. The SoftBank-backed company Jellysmack is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jellysmack-layoffs-restructuring-creator-economy-influencer-content-softbank-investment-2024-10">cutting 22 US staffers</a>. A Jellysmack representative told BI it was "scaling back certain operations in our Creator Program on Meta due to the opacity of their new monetization model." The program originally helped creators make money by sharing their content across Meta's platforms.</li><li>Wall Street can't quit Nvidia. Banks have kept hiking their price targets for the chip titan, whose share price is up almost 200% this year. But <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-nvda-blackwell-demand-outlook-chips-ai-2024-10">it's not deterring analysts</a>, who remain upbeat about the next-gen Blackwell chip and Nvidia's web of enterprise partnerships.</li><li>Advertisers rally against iPhone "Distraction Control" over fears it could sabotage websites. French groups representing around 800 companies in media and advertising signed an open letter lobbying Tim Cook to suspend the feature, which would allow Safari users to hide images, pop-ups, or ads. They called it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/publishers-advertisers-call-on-apple-suspend-distraction-control-feature-2024-10">"an existential threat" to online advertising</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Bob Iger" height="1280" width="1920" msid="114468945" hostid="261" sizebytes="74892"></div><ol><li>Disney says it will appoint a new CEO in 2026. The company said it would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-bob-iger-ceo-successor-early-2026-james-gorman-chairman-2024-10">announce a successor for Bob Iger</a> before his contract expires in December of that year.</li><li>New York magazine and Olivia Nuzzi are parting ways. The star reporter was placed on leave after her editors learned she'd had a relationship with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While a third-party investigation into Nuzzi's work found "no inaccuracies nor evidence of bias" in her reporting, the magazine said they'd still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-magazine-parting-ways-olivia-nuzzi-third-party-investigation-2024-10">mutually decided to go their separate ways</a>.</li><li>The vibecession, according to science. Americans are financially better off now than they were at the beginning of the pandemic. So why is everyone so concerned about inflation? A new study details the emotional toll of rising prices, which could explain <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-hidden-cost-work-salary-negotiation-boss-conflict-2024-10">why the vibes are so rank right now</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>These tech investors are trawling UC Berkeley <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-house-fund-uc-berkeley-perplexity-databricks-2024-10">to fund the next Perplexity or Databricks</a>.</li><li>Ken Griffin's move to Florida means <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-move-to-florida-selling-chicago-homes-at-loss-2024-10">losing millions on homes he never even lived in</a>.</li><li>McDonald's is the latest election battleground <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-is-latest-election-battleground-for-trump-and-harris-2024-10">for Trump and Harris</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>General Motors, GE, Verizon, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>The IMF World Economic Outlook is published.</li><li>NBA season begins with New York Knicks at Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

The future of the S&P 500 has everyone divided

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market is primed for a correction as equity valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg.</li><li>Rosenberg highlighted that a 26% surge in the S&amp;P 500 over the past year is backed up by only a 6% gain in earnings growth.</li></ul>The stock market is "primed for a correction" as earnings valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg.In a series of notes over the past two days, Rosenberg warned that the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> 26% rally over the past year is running on fumes, as <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-rare-setup-slowing-economy-earnings-growth-profits-2024-5">earnings growth has jumped</a> by only 6% over the same time period.That suggests that the expansion in the S&amp;P 500's forward price-to-earnings valuation multiple to 21x from 18x in October is getting stretched. "This sort of move over a seven-month span has only happened 5% of the time over the past three decades," Rosenberg said. "Everyone is talking about this being an earnings-driven stock market, but over the past year, it has actually been four parts multiple expansion and one part EPS growth."Future earnings expectations don't look any better, Rosenberg noted. Wall Street consensus for the S&amp;P 500's 2024 earnings per share is $245, which is the same forecast today as it was in October, before the stock market staged a near-30% rally."Not just that, but 2025 earnings forecasts (at $275 currently) since the market took off last October have risen less than +2%!" Rosenberg said. The surge in equity valuations has led to a crashing equity risk premium, with the S&amp;P 500's earnings yield of 4.8% slightly above the 10-year Treasury yield of about 4.5%."The equity risk premium, in other words, has been obliterated. The stock market is so overvalued that when controlling for the level of interest rates, the P/E multiple is more than 30% above where history says it has been in the past," Rosenberg said.That has informed Rosenberg's consistently bearish view, but the economist did say that high valuations on their own do not mean <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-massive-upside-prediction-dow-60000-roaring-20s-yardeni-2024-5">the stock market can't go higher from here.</a>"This by no means suggests that the bubble can't get even bigger. But it is to say that this is a huge bubble, exceeded only in the 1999-2000 tech mania," Rosenberg said.

The stock market rally is running on fumes as earnings growth can't keep up with sky-high prices, top economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks climbed higher as traders took in inflation figures from October that were in-line with estiamtes.</li><li>Consumer prices rose 2.6% on a yearly basis last month and 0.2% for the month. </li></ul>US stocks ticked higher on Wednesday as traders took in fresh <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflation figures</a>, which were in line with economists' expectations. Major indexes edged up in early-morning trading, while bond yields slumped.Consumer prices grew 0.2% in the month of October and 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. The increase was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">slightly hotter</a> than last month's 2.4% price growth, but in line with expectations, which kept investors hopeful that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting. Expectations for another 25 basis point rate cut in December solidified. Markets are pricing in a 82% chance the Fed will trim its target rate by another quarter-point, up from a 59% yesterday, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>."Given nervousness around the more inflationary aspects of Trump's policy proposals, markets appeared primed for an upside inflation surprise today," Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a note. "A December cut is still in the cards," she added.Still, the rise in the overall inflation rate makes the outlook for future Fed cuts uncertain, according to Skyler Weinand, the chief investment officer of Regan Capital."With Wednesday's CPI in line with expectations, but still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% goal, the Fed may have only one rate cut left in December before taking a pause from their easing path," Weinand said in a note.He continued: "The incredible move in the stock market postelection has effectively eased financial conditions for stock investors. This easing, combined with incoming fiscal stimulus, may warrant a pause on rate cuts by the Fed in the near future to allow the dust to settle and to process more incoming data."Assets that are part of the Trump Trade appeared to remain in-focus on Wednesday, with shares of Tesla rising as much as 3% while Dogecoin climbed 4% after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-tesla-spacex-x-department-government-efficiency-jobs-2024-11">Elon Musk was appointed</a> to co-head Trump's newly created Department of Government Efficiency, along with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,988.06, up 0.07%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,988.08, up 0.18% (+77.10 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,285.65, up 0.03% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-top-performing-asset-2025-bull-rally-trump-2024-11">Stock exposure is at an 11-year high</a> after the election as investors see US stocks as the top-performing asset next year, BofA said. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-biggest-risk-trump-win-china-trade-war-2024-11">The biggest risk to stocks</a> after Trump's election victory is China's reaction to a trade war, according to one research firm.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dogecoin-price-market-value-ford-crypto-boom-trump-elon-musk-2024-11">Dogecoin surpassed Ford in value</a> as Trump's election win propelled the total crypto market cap to $3 trillion.</li><li>Here are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-trump-trade-outlook-risks-inflation-yields-dollar-2024-11">3 risks that could derail the Trump trade in stocks</a>, according to Morgan Stanley.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 1.07% to $67.39 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.92% to $71.23 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged up 0.61% to $2,612.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points to 4.365%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> climbed 4.29% to $89,642.</li></ul>

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