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The deadly landslides in Kerala's ecologically fragile Wayanad district were triggered by a heavy burst of rainfall, made 10 per cent heavier by <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, according to a new rapid attribution study by a global team of scientists. Researchers from India, Sweden, the US and the UK warned that such events will become more common as the climate continues to warm. To measure the impact of human-caused climate change, the scientists from the <keyword id="12008149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Weather-Attribution" source="Orion">World Weather Attribution</keyword> (WWA) group analysed climate models with high enough resolution to accurately reflect rainfall in the relatively small study area. The models indicated that the intensity of rainfall has increased by 10 per cent due to climate change, they said. The models also predict a further four per cent increase in rainfall intensity if the average <keyword id="21951013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-temperature" source="keywords">global temperature</keyword> rises by two degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average. The scientists, however, said there is a "high level of uncertainty" in the model results as the study area is small and mountainous with complex rainfall-climate dynamics. Having said that, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours. According to scientists, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by about 7 per cent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. Scientists say this is the reason behind worsening <keyword id="19912530" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-weather-events" source="keywords">extreme weather events</keyword>, such as droughts, heat waves and floods worldwide. The WWA scientists said that while the relationship between land cover, land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is not fully clear from existing studies, factors, such as quarrying for building materials and a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes' susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall. Other researchers have also linked the <keyword id="22597176" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wayanad-landslides" source="keywords">Wayanad landslides</keyword> to a combination of forest cover loss, mining in fragile terrain and prolonged rain followed by heavy precipitation. S Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), had earlier told PTI that the warming of the Arabian Sea is leading to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the risk of landslides. "Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable. This instability is allowing the formation of deep clouds," he had said. According to the landslide atlas released by ISRO's National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot. A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala are in the Western Ghats region and are concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts. It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas. A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.

Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

With millions of people across five continents experiencing scorching heat last month, the European Union's (EU) climate agency, Copernicus <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">Climate Change</keyword> Service (C3S), confirmed on Monday that June was the warmest on record. It also marked the 12th consecutive month of <keyword id="20524196" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-temperatures" source="keywords">global temperatures</keyword> reaching <keyword id="22325521" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-5-degrees-Celsius" source="keywords">1.5 degrees Celsius</keyword> above the pre-industrial average. According to scientists at C3S, every month since June last year has been the warmest such month on record. In January, the world completed an entire year with the mean surface air temperature exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold. June was the 12th consecutive month with monthly average temperatures above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. At the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris, world leaders committed to limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the <keyword id="20104670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Paris-Agreement" source="keywords">Paris Agreement</keyword> refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year period. Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to the average in 1850-1900 due to the rapidly-increasing concentration of <keyword id="20649149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="greenhouse-gases" source="keywords">greenhouse gases</keyword> -- primarily carbon dioxide and methane -- in the atmosphere. This warming is considered to be the reason behind record droughts, wildfires and floods worldwide. According to new data, June 2024 was the warmest on record, with an average surface air temperature of 16.66 degrees Celsius, 0.67 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average for the month and 0.14 degrees Celsius above the previous high set in June 2023. "The month was 1.5 degrees Celsius above the estimated June average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period, making it the 12th consecutive month to reach or break the 1.5-degree threshold," C3S said in a statement. It was also the 13th consecutive month of <keyword id="21477127" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-high-temperatures" source="keywords">record-high temperatures</keyword>, a result of the combined effect of the 2023-24 El Nino event and human-caused climate change. While unusual, a similar streak of monthly global temperature records happened previously in 2015-16. "This is more than a statistical oddity and highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate. Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable, unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans," said Carlo Buontempo, the director of C3S. The European climate agency said the global average temperature for the last 12 months (July 2023-June 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.76 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The world's sea surface in June was also the highest ever recorded for the month. Several countries experienced record-breaking heat and devastating floods and storms in June. According to an analysis by Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators based in the United States, more than 60 per cent of the world population faced extreme heat that was made at least three times more likely by climate change during June 16-24. Climate Central said the blistering heat in June impacted 619 million (61.9 crore) people in India, 579 million (57.9 crore) in China, 231 million (23.1 crore) in Indonesia, 206 million (20.6 crore) in Nigeria, 176 million (17.6 crore) in Brazil, 171 million (17.1 crore) in Bangladesh, 165 million (16.5 crore) in the US, 152 million (15.2 crore) in Europe, 123 million (12.3 crore) in Mexico, 121 million (12.1 crore) in Ethiopia and 103 million (10.3 crore) in Egypt. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), northwest India recorded its warmest June since 1901. India, which experienced one of its hottest and longest heatwaves, recorded more than 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases and over 100 heat-related deaths. The intense heat overwhelmed the water supply system and power grids, with Delhi grappling with a severe water crisis. According to the IMD, 11 states recorded 20 to 38 heatwave days -- up to four times the usual number of such days -- during the April-to-June period. The mercury breached 50 degrees Celsius in parts of Rajasthan, with night temperatures hovering around 35 degrees Celsius in many places. Temperatures were most above average over eastern Canada, the western United States and Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa, and western Antarctica. 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June warmest on record; every month since July 2023 breached 1.5 deg C threshold

A deadly heat wave gripped large regions of Asia for weeks in April and May 2024. As temperatures climbed past 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 Celsius) in India on May 7, campaigning politicians, local news announcers and voters waiting in long lines passed out from the oppressive heat. From as far north as Japan to as far south as the Philippines, the relentless heat wreaked havoc on everyday life. Students and teachers in Cambodia were sent home from school, as their hand-held fans provided little protection against the stifling heat and humidity in their poorly ventilated classrooms. Farmers in Thailand saw their crops wither and mourned the loss of livestock that perished under the punishing sun. Hundreds of people died from the heat. Most of the planet has suffered the dire effects of <keyword id="20563038" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-heat" source="keywords">extreme heat</keyword> in recent years. A weekslong heat wave in the southwestern United States in 2023 was described as "hell on earth" in Phoenix, where temperatures hit 110 F (43.3 C) or higher for 31 straight days. At the same time, Europe saw unprecedented high temperatures that killed hundreds and contributed to devastating wildfires in Greece. Regardless of where or when a heat wave strikes, one pattern is a constant: Older adults are the most likely to die from extreme heat, and this crisis will worsen in the coming years. We study <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> and population aging. Our research documents two global trends that together portend a dire future. More older adults will be at risk of heat stress First, temperatures are hotter than ever. The nine-year period from 2015 and 2023 had the highest average temperatures since global records began in 1880. Second, the population is aging worldwide. By 2050, the number of people ages 60 and older will double to nearly 2.1 billion, making up 21 per cent of the <keyword id="21055680" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-population" source="keywords">global population</keyword>. That proportion is 13 per cent today. These combined forces mean that ever-rising numbers of vulnerable older adults will be exposed to intensifying heat. To understand the risks ahead, we developed population projections for different age groups and combined them with climate change scenarios for the coming decades. Our analyses show that by 2050, more than 23 per cent of the world population ages 69 and older will be living in regions where peak temperatures routinely surpass 99.5 degrees F (37.5 degrees C), compared with just 14 per cent today. That means that as many as 250 million additional older adults will be exposed to dangerously high temperatures. Mapping the data shows that most of these older adults live in lower- and middle-income countries with insufficient services and limited access to electricity, cooling appliances and safe water. In historically cooler regions in the Global North, including North America and Europe, <keyword id="20707229" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rising-temperatures" source="keywords">rising temperatures</keyword> will be the main force driving older adults' heat exposure. In historically hotter regions in the Global South such as Asia, Africa and South America, population growth and increases in longevity mean that steeply rising numbers of older adults will be exposed to intensifying heat-related risks. Policymakers, communities, families and older residents themselves need to understand these risks and be prepared because of older adults' special vulnerabilities to heat. Extreme heat is especially harmful to older adults High temperatures are oppressive for everyone, but for older adults they can be deadly. Extreme heat worsens common age-related health conditions such as heart, lung and kidney disease and can cause delirium. Older people don't sweat as much as younger people, which makes it harder for their bodies to cool down when temperatures spike. These problems are intensified by common prescription medications, such as anticholinergics, which further reduce the capacity to sweat. Spending time outdoors in hot humid weather can cause dehydration, a problem worsened by the side effects of prescription medications such as diuretics and beta-blockers. Dehydration can make older adults weak and dizzy, increasing their risk of falls and injury. These threats are even worse in regions lacking access to safe and affordable drinking water. Poor air quality makes it difficult to breath, especially for those who already have lung problems such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD. For older adults with physical health problems, temperatures as low as 80 F (26.7 C) can pose significant danger. And when humidity is as high as 90 per cent, even 78 F (25.6 C) can be hazardous to older adults. Nighttime heat is especially harmful for older adults whose homes lack air conditioning or who can't afford to run their air conditioners for long periods. The ideal temperature for older adults' restful sleep is between 68 and 77 F (20 and 25 C), and sleep quality diminishes as temperatures rise. A night of restless sleep can make an older adult more depressed and confused during their waking hours. Medications also can lose their effectiveness if stored in places much warmer than 77 F (25 C). Older adults also may suffer emotionally during stifling <keyword id="20472420" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heat-waves" source="keywords">heat waves</keyword> Being stuck indoors when temperatures are unbearable can make older adults bored, depressed and isolated. People with cognitive impairments may underestimate the dangers of extreme heat or may not understand the heat advisories. Those who have physical mobility limitations or lack access to transportation can't easily travel to public cooling centers - if there is one nearby - or find relief in nearby "green and blue areas," such as parks and lakes. These threats are especially dire in low- and middle-income nations, where older adults are more likely to live in substandard housing and lack access to high-quality health care or ways to cool down in the heat. We talk about this as "systemic cooling poverty." What can be done? Policymakers can work to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels in vehicles, power plants and factories, which drive global warming, and develop effective plans to protect older people from heat risk. Older adults and their caregivers also can take steps to adapt. But efforts to help need to be tailored to each region and population. Wealthy municipalities can increase public investments in early warning systems and ride services to cooling centers and hospitals. They can use geographic information systems to identify neighborhoods with high concentrations of older adults and expand power grids to manage increasing demand for air conditioning. In regions with substandard housing, limited access to clean water and few public supports such as cooling centers, much larger changes are necessary. Providing better health care, water and housing and reducing air pollution that can mitigate health problems during heat waves require significant changes and investments many countries struggle to afford. The World Health Organization and Pan American Health Organization warn that this decade will be critical for preparing communities to handle rising heat and the risk to aging populations. Across all regions, researchers, practitioners and policymakers could save lives by heeding their call. 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Heat waves can be deadly for older adults: An aging global population and rising temperatures mean millions are at risk

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Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

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June warmest on record; every month since July 2023 breached 1.5 deg C threshold

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Heat waves can be deadly for older adults: An aging global population and rising temperatures mean millions are at risk

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