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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's victory over Harris raises questions about Republican control of the House.</li><li>Wall Street strategists are closely monitoring financial markets and potential policy impacts.</li></ul>It's fair to say that much of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-post-election-results-bullish-trump-trade-peter-tuchman-2024-11">Wall Street didn't get enough sleep</a> on election night after being caught off guard by the speed at which results began coming in.Dominic Pappalardo, the chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, was home watching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/polymarket-prediction-betting-markets-vindicated-by-trumps-strong-showing-1033958821">prediction markets</a> and how percentages were skewing state by state. He was also keeping an eye on financial markets to see if they were making directional moves.Over in London, Richard Kelly, the head of global strategy at TD Securities, was on his firm's trading floor, busy answering endless client questions on 'What about this' and 'What about that'-type scenarios."As much as we all tried to think ahead of what the different policies would be, there are always a lot more questions that come up on the day, and they all have to be much more concrete," Kelly said. "So it's just been a whirlwind."Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">Donald Trump's victory</a> over Vice President Kamala Harris has been called for Tuesday's election, but Wall Street is still waiting on one more key answer: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-balance-of-power-results-competitive-republicans-democrats-2024-11">Will Republicans take the House</a>, too? It seems increasingly likely. Yet, the result would be based on a handful of seats."Technically, we don't need to know until the first half of December legally, and these things are so close in terms of the margin of error," Kelly said. "There's some of these races where literally hundreds of ballots is the differential of Republican versus Democrat. So it's not going to be today."The small tilt in the House makes a big difference because a handful of seats are enough to create some friction on Trump policies, Kelly noted.<h2 id="e4827f7a-5ee5-4a62-aa3b-da6a8ce8b3ef">Stocks</h2>Sector rotations among stocks are slightly muddy because the overall <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11">market is up so much that everything rallied</a> with the broad market, Pappalardo said. But one noteworthy sector is financials, which performed better than the overall market into Wednesday's early trading hours. It's unsurprising since the Republicans campaigned on policies favorable to banks and financial stocks, including decreased regulation. The steepening yield curve is also positive for banks as it boosts their profit margins since they borrow on the front-end yield and lend at the back-end yield, he added.Technology is another sector the market is viewing favorably: Tech companies have been creating a lot of profit, so Trump's promised corporate tax cuts will be quite beneficial, Pappalardo said.Meanwhile, the utilities sector lagged the broader market the most as we moved into Wednesday's early trading hours. Investors moving away from defensives toward cyclicals is likely a sign that investors believe the economy is positioned for growth, Pappalardo noted.While the rallies are positive for stocks, looking ahead, Pappalardo expects things to return to normality. In other words, investors will focus on traditional fundamentals like corporate earnings and interest rate policy.<h2 id="5e50dfbb-c80b-4dee-8272-69eff4f2145f">Bonds</h2>Wednesday was a long day for Gennadiy Goldberg, the head of US rates strategy at TD Securities. He stayed up past midnight watching the yield move before passing the baton off to his colleagues in London."Once the polls started to close, the market already started to move," Goldberg said. "It took the market very little time to start penciling in higher odds of the Trump victory."The swift and strong Republican win pushed the 10-year yield up from around 4.3% to around 4.45%.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-a-bond#:~:text=Bonds%20are%20loans%20that%20investors,the%20principal%20investment%20at%20maturity.">bond market</a> was expressing signs of nervousness. This sector of the market is worried about who's going to pay the bill for potentially higher budget deficits. The result is a pricing-in of higher debt premiums, Goldberg said.Additionally, aggressive immigration and tariff policies could be inflationary. And if it looks like inflation pressures are either reaccelerating or just stubbornly high, it could leave the Fed nervous about cutting rates further, Goldberg said.Kelly added that the 10-year could still move higher to 4.75%, and that's where he thinks the market could get more comfortable buying.<h2 id="b628f761-842f-464c-a039-7d296873c4e9">Currencies</h2>Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities, was at home in front of multiple screens until about 1 a.m. as she watched <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-forex">currencies move</a> amid the strong Trump lead. Initially, she expected the results to take a few days to become clear, but she was surprised by how quickly the outcome became evident. Currency markets also reacted swiftly against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar."The Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso, and the euro were hit particularly hard because once markets saw the election results being called, they had to start pricing in the threat of tariffs," Bharadwaj said.She expects the euro to trade even weaker relative to the dollar once Trump takes office. Right now, it's trading at $1.07; expect it to move to $1.05, she said. If the Republicans take the House, then the euro could drop below $1.05, she added.Kelly added that China has been under the microscope since Trump talked about 60% tariffs on its imports. Other countries could face 10% tariffs across the board. So, if you're highly leveraged to trade, like Europe or the UK, it could be very negative for the euro and pound. He noted that it could also be negative on the currencies of Canada and Mexico, depending on how USMCA members will be impacted.On the flip side, the yen could weaken less than other currencies relative to the US dollar. The Bank of Japan may return to rate hikes over the next few months after it had paused, Kelly said. This means watch out for further unwinding in the yen carry trade. Therefore, the next question investors have to ask is: how many long equity positions have been funded at very low Japanese rates, Kelly said.For this reason, Bharadwaj cautions traders about jumping back into any carry trades because there will be a lot of currency volatility.<h2 id="2b454727-3f51-473d-b815-35fcf1e90886">Gold</h2>One surprise is that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">gold hasn't weakened</a> as much as expected, Kelly said. As the dollar strengthened, he anticipated a more significant pullback. Given the uncertainty and volatility that took place the day after the elections, it might be too soon as investors digest results. However, he anticipates further weakening in gold, which is down 2% from Election Day.

Chief strategists project their outlooks on stocks, bonds, currencies, and gold amid a Trump victory 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Shopify's stock popped 25% on Tuesday after reporting strong revenue and a promising holiday outlook.</li><li>The gains added fuel to Canada's stock rally, helping the market touch record highs. </li></ul>Shopify shares soared Tuesday, lifting Canda's benchmark stock index. Shares of the e-commerce firm popped as much as 25% after reporting revenue that beat estimates and giving strong guidance for the holiday season.With the heaviest weighting on Canada's benchmark index, Shopify's gains pushed the S&amp;P/TSX Composite Index up as much as 1% on Tuesday to touch nearly 25,025, marking the first time the index has crossed the 25,000 threshold.The company, which builds software to power online storefronts, reported earnings per share of $0.35, beating forecasts of $0.26 according to LSEG estimates. Revenue, meanwhile, came in at $2.16 billion versus estimates of $2.12 billion.Going forward, the company says it expects revenue growth in the mid- to high-twenties percentage for the present quarter, above forecasts of around 23% according to FactSet. The strong outlook shows optimism around spending in the upcoming holiday season.Shopify president Harley Finkelstein said the company's strong beat shows it's gaining market share among e-commerce companies. He said the company has attracted an increasing number of key retailers like Reebok, Hanes, and Vera Bradley."Shopify is increasingly the go-to platform of choice, not just for entrepreneurship, but for all of commerce. We are well positioned for extensive growth across different merchant segments, size, geographies, channels and products," Finkelstein said on a call with investors.The company is also making headway in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shopify-ai-use-boosts-efficiency-shakes-up-staff-structure-2024-5">incorporating new technology</a>, launching an AI assistant and AI-powered tools for merchants.Analysts from Citi said they have a bullish outlook for the stock, citing a large addressable market, secular tailwinds, and large-scale growth.The latest earnings add fuel to what has already been a hot streak for Shopify stock, which is up over 43% this year. Canada's benchmark index has soared over 19% in 2024.

Shopify's 25% gain sends Canada's benchmark stock index to all-time highs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Amazon rose as much as 7.6% on Friday, its biggest intraday gain since early February.</li><li>The stock surge was driven by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, as well as a strong outlook.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock">Amazon</a> stock saw its best day in nine months on Friday.It climbed as much as 7.6% to $200.50, its steepest intraday gain since Feb. 2, after a strong third-quarter earnings report. Shares traded around $199 as of 12:30 p.m. in New York, less than 1% from all-time closing highs set in July.The tech titan <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-stock-earnings-report-call-live-updates-2024-10">beat estimates</a> for both revenue and earnings-per-share, led by strength in cloud computing and cost-efficiency efforts. It also forecasted fourth-quarters sales in line with Wall Street expectations.In a turnaround from last year's record low sales growth, Amazon Web Services — the firm's AI-driven cloud platform — maintained stable momentum. Cloud revenues rose 19%, and CEO Andy Jassy indicated that Amazon's blowout $75 billion investment for 2025 will largely benefit AWS.During the firm's earnings call, Jassy explained that AI was driving the investment boost.He expressed that the technology is "a really unusually large, maybe once-in-a-lifetime type of opportunity. And I think our customers, the business, and our shareholders will feel good about this long term; that we're aggressively pursuing it."The company's cost cutting efforts have allowed the firm to pursue larger investments in these areas. With more efficiencies suggested ahead, Bank of America expects continued margin expansion through 2025.Amazon also delivered a retail beat, despite low expectations. Although Wall Street was concerned that headwinds would weaken the firm's consumer base, its online store grew 7% year-over-year, outpacing consensus estimates of 4%.According to the bank, efficiencies in the cost of servicing customers and ad growth helped drive the estimate-beat.

Amazon stock jumps most in 9 months as cost cuts, cloud spark earnings beat

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ed Yardeni challenged Goldman Sachs' prediction of weak stock market returns in coming years.</li><li>Goldman forecasts 3% annual returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade, but Yardeni says it could be closer to 11%.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs'</a> prediction of a decade of low returns is way too conservative, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.Goldman <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">issued a 10-year outlook for the stock market</a> earlier this week, suggesting that the S&amp;P 500 will deliver average annual returns of just 3%, with a potential range of between -1% and 7%.That prediction didn't sit well with Yardeni, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-roaring-20s-rapid-growth-stock-market-analysis-ed-yardeni-2024-1">has been arguing</a> for the past two years that the stock market is set up for a Roaring 20s-like boom due to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employee-productivity-booming-workers-jobs-ai-stock-market-gdp-2024-3">the ongoing rise in productivity.</a>"In our opinion, even Goldman's optimistic scenario might not be optimistic enough," Yardeni said in a note on Tuesday.Yardeni said with the US economy growing at a 3% clip year-over-year, combined with inflation moderating to about 2%, stock market returns should be closer to 11% on an average annualized basis over the next decade."It's hard to imaging that the total return of the S&amp;P 500 would be only 3% in the future given the returns just from the compounding of reinvested dividends," Yardeni said.The bulk of Goldman's bearish long-term thesis on the stock market hinges on the fact that there is a high level of concentration in just a handful of stocks.But that's warranted based on the fundamentals, Yardeni said."While the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors together now make up about 40% of the overall S&amp;P 500, around the same as at the peak of the dotcom bubble, their companies are much more fundamentally sound today than back then," he said.Yardeni explained that these two sectors represent more than a third of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> earnings power, compared to less than a quarter of the index's earnings at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.Additionally, the definition of a technology company has been warped as technology is pervasive across all sectors, and that's helping drive a boom in productivity, which should support economic growth while keeping inflation in check.Overall, if current trends persist, Yardeni sees a scenario in which the Roaring 20s stock market boom extends into the next decade, which would turn Goldman's conservative outlook upside down."A looming lost decade for US stocks is unlikely if earnings and dividends continue to grow at solid paces, boosted by higher profit margins thanks to better technology-led productivity growth," Yardeni said.

Why Goldman Sachs' prediction of a lost decade for stocks is wrong, according to a market vet

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors are de-risking portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock market sell-off.</li><li>Weak economic data, including a surge in unemployment, has fueled recession concerns.</li></ul>The stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly-panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-indicators-jobs-report-unemploymnet-rate-sp500-2024-8">fears of a downturn</a>.Major equity indexes have been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-selloff-today-jobs-report-recession-unemployment-tech-earnings-2024-8">in free-fall</a> for three days running, selling off in response to a slew of weak economic data. Investors are questioning if the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates, and whether it's already <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-unemployment-interest-rates-economy-recession-soft-landing-2024-8">too late to fend off recession</a>. As indexes sit deeply in the red, with the Nasdaq 100 in correction territory, cries for an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/emergency-interest-rate-cut-likelihood-recession-outlook-stock-market-crash-2024-8">emergency cut</a> are gathering steam.But that doesn't mean every area of the market is getting hit. As the S&amp;P 500 has fallen 5% since last Thursday, Aug. 1, three sectors in the benchmark index have actually stayed in the green: real estate, utilities, and consumer staples. Viewed as safety plays during market turmoil, they've outperformed amid investor nerves.The same goes for ultra-safe bonds. US Treasury yields sit at yearly lows as traders play defense and flee into government debt.Detailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear that investors are employing the recession playbook:<h2 id="39537f20-e75e-4a8c-ba18-8561237c0889">1. Defensive stocks</h2>Investors are sowing cash into <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-investing-advice-inflation-april-cpi-fed-morgan-stanley-2024-5">defensive stock sectors</a>, like consumer staples and utilities, which tend to outperform during rough patches in the economy.Since Thursday, the consumer staples and utility indexes within the S&amp;P 500 are up 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. Grouped with real estate, those are the only areas of the benchmark index that have gained over the last three trading days, with all other areas of the market posting losses that trail up to 10%, according to Bloomberg data."As the rate of economic growth in the US is poised to slow in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, investors have looked to the stability of defensive stocks to position their portfolios to weather any potential downturn," David Sekara, the chief US market strategist at Morningstar said in a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=9f26dd18f497970ac3d70027dd27d4a4cf0cb07b088e665bbb379fa484539e3e&amp;postID=66b0ec8de3c9582388c70a40&amp;postSlug=stock-market-investing-strategy-for-recession-tech-selloff-economy-inflation-2024-8&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningstar.com%2Fstocks%2Fbest-defensive-stocks-buy%3Futm_source%3Deloqua%26utm_medium%3Demail%26utm_campaign%3Dnewsletter_morningdigest%26utm_content%3D56443">note</a>.<h2 id="8b7e5c46-1617-4fb2-a87f-e941b47c2aa9">2. Dividend-paying stocks</h2>Stocks that pay out dividends to shareholders, another common recession play, are also growing in popularity.Utility stocks, which often pay dividends, have outperformed the overall S&amp;P 500 over the last few trading days, while the iShares Global Utilities ETF is up 12.7% from levels at the start of the year.<h2 id="3c394e17-9f13-431d-afa7-8be0c06bd9fd">3. Government bonds</h2>US Treasurys saw a sharp rally on Monday as traders anticipated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-recession-outlook-economy-job-market-interest-rates-2024-8">steep rate cuts</a> — a policy move that is typically indicative of the Fed responding to recession risks.Treasury yields, which fall as government bond prices rise, hit their lowest level in a year on Monday. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell as much as 10 basis points in early-morning trading, while the yield on the 2-year US Treasury plunged as much as 16 basis points."Bonds are seeing safe-haven demand," David Rosenberg, the chief economist of Rosenberg Research, said in a note on Monday. "For the macro bulls out there, I have some news for you: the bond market is telling you something not-so-good is about to happen," he later added.<h2 id="381e3f14-7512-4d21-a629-924a66baf0a2">4. Selling high-momentum growth stocks</h2>Investors, meanwhile, are shedding high-flying growth stocks — specifically, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-prediction-selloff-small-cap-rally-investing-strategy-2024-7">tech stocks</a> — from their portfolios. The Nasdaq deepened its descent into correction territory this week, with the tech-heavy index losing 12% over the last 30 days.The S&amp;P 500's information technology index, meanwhile, is down 9% over the last three days."The tech bubble, as was the case in 2000 (and it wasn't all about dot-coms back then, but the entire sector getting swept away by the Internet as has been the case now with the AI craze), is in the process of popping," Rosenberg wrote. "As we saw with routers, cable, and fiber optics in the late 1990s, anxi­ety over AI over invest­ment is now beginning to build, and the comparisons are stark."Still, some forecasters say the outlook for a recession remains uncertain. While the slowdown in the job market looks concerning, weakness in the latest jobs report was likely overstated due to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-beryl-caribbean-storm-weather-jamaica-record-category-2024-7">recent weather events</a>, which temporarily displaced around 416,000 workers, Ned Davis Research said in a note."Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate cut expectations. "Although we may get there, that is not our call at this time."

The stock market's recession playbook is in full effect

<ul class="summary-list"><li>UBS has conducted a market-scenario analysis for four possible election outcomes.</li><li>The firm assigned the highest odds to a Kamala Harris presidency and split Congress.</li></ul>Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race in July, outlooks on what could happen in November have dramatically readjusted.The sudden candidacy of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-inflation-polling-donald-trump-joe-biden-2024-8">Kamala Harris</a> has brought back confidence in a possible Democratic victory, which was starting to fade under Biden. With less than 100 days to go to the election, she is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling-shift-2024-8">now polling higher against her rival</a>, Donald Trump.Harris' rise has prompted UBS to update its outlook on what could happen to stocks, based on the election's outcome. The bank offered a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/biden-trump-presidential-election-stock-market-impact-tariffs-regulation-taxes-2024-3">similar analysis in March</a> when Biden was still running.<h3 id="35673257-858f-4c90-b0d2-0f3149190d03">(1) Harris wins with split Congress</h3>UBS projects a 40% chance that Harris will take over the Oval Office, while Congress is split.The scenario would have a minimal impact on equities, boosting companies focused on renewables and energy efficiency. The bank expects a relief rally to lift Inflation Reduction Act benefactors, while a regulatory overhang could cause fossil fuel companies to trade lower.UBS said strict regulation could also limit the financial sector, as Harris will keep in place an "anti-big financial services ideology." Since the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March last year, Biden has called for <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/yellen-siliconvalleybank-regulation-banking-0ecff9f3aac804de56d32a6317ab07bc">tighter oversight</a>.At the same time, Congress would limit Harris from pushing major legislation, such as industrials and healthcare.<h3 id="b9e5519b-d60a-4181-b0c6-b4b52267b08b">(2) Trump wins in red sweep</h3>If Harris doesn't win, UBS sees 35% odds that Republicans win both Congress and the White House. When Biden was still running, this was the most probable outcome, the bank previously forecast.In this case, Trump would face fewer limits in implementing touted policies, such as his pledge to raise tariffs and extend the 2017 corporate tax cuts.UBS expects regulation to loosen in this scenario, while merger and acquisition activity would likely rise. These factors would help support fossil fuel investment and would be the best-case scenario for financials.That makes a red sweep outcome slightly positive for equities, although the bank expects Trump's other proposals to offset initial market excitement.For instance, many economists have voiced concern about higher tariffs, considering that elevated duties can spur inflation. Trump has repeatedly dismissed these warnings, instead calling for a universal tariff on all US trade and a 60% tax rate on Chinese exports.In this case, UBS expects interest rates and the dollar to rise. Higher tariffs could also impact the technology sector, especially hardware and semiconductor firms.The bank noted possible negative effects on healthcare from Trump's proposals, such as plans for an international drug pricing index.<h3 id="d6497907-c6b5-48d5-a39d-c102811d9d8a">(3) Harris wins in blue sweep</h3>UBS sees a 15% possibility that Democrats secure both branches of government. If that happens, it'll be the worst outcome for stocks, the note said.This scenario would be slightly negative for the market, as investors can expect the 2017 tax cuts to expire, while regulation would tighten. Financials and fossil fuel companies would be hit hardest, driving up costs in both industries.Some efforts could be made to expand the IRA's drug price negotiating power, though its questionable how willing Democrats from Biopharma states will be in implementing this.Meanwhile, the estate tax could rise, alongside limitations to state and local tax deductions.Altogether, lower growth would prompt interest rates are to fall, as disinflation continues.<h3 id="7ef6b71f-3019-4541-bb30-1ae0b6aca36a">(4) Trump wins with divided Congress</h3>The least likely outcome that UBS expects is for Trump to return to the White House, without the support of a Republican Congress. There is a 10% chance this happens.Under this scenario, the stock market impact will be mixed. As with a red sweep, tariffs will still bring about inflationary pressures and a stronger dollar, modestly pushing up interest rates.The bank said investment spending could fall back for industrials as uncertainty grows around green energy initiatives.Meanwhile, UBS anticipates regulatory overhangs to ease somewhat over the fossil fuel and financial sectors, with the latter benefiting from new regulatory head appointments at the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

How 4 possible presidential election results could impact stocks

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stock indexes soared on Thursday as new jobless claims data raised investors' confidence.</li><li>The Dow rallied 683 points, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2.3% and 32.8%, respectively.</li></ul>US stocks rallied on Thursday, clawing back losses from the rout earlier in the week as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-jobless-claims-data-economy-labor-market-recession-2024-8">new jobs data boosted investors' confidence</a> in the labor market and the economy. The S&amp;P 500 jumped 2.3% for its best day since November 2022. The Nasdaq Composite spiked 2.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up two basis points to 3.98%, dipping slightly throughout the day after jumping above 4% earlier in the day. Fueling Thursday's gain was a drop in weekly jobless claims that soothed fears of an imminent recession after last week's surprise jump in the unemployment rate. Jobless claims last week dropped 17,000 to 233,00, marking the biggest fall in almost a year. The encouraging data comes after last week's disappointing nonfarm payroll report for July led to a historic selloff and sparked concerns of a recession.The information technology sector led the S&amp;P 500's rise, up 3.5%, while communication services also notched strong gains.Pharmaceuticals giant Eli Lilly <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/eli-lilly-stock-price-weight-loss-drugs-q2-earnings-glp1-2024-8">soared 14% after reporting strong earnings</a> in its most recent quarter, helped by big demand for its GLP-1 weight loss drugs. The company's quarterly revenue of $11.30 billion beat analyst estimates of $9.98 billion, and the company raised its annual revenue outlook."We just see unbelievable demand, and we're not even trying that hard to promote this drug. We're not advertising, we told our sales reps to basically just service customers, don't promote," CEO David Ricks said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday.Next week, investors will be tuned into the latest inflation data, with July's consumer price index scheduled to be released on August 14. The data will be the next big input for bets on Fed policy for the rest of the year. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,319.30, up 2.3%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,446.82, up 1.76% (+683.30 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,660.02, up 2.87%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-economy-recession-earnings-growth-selloff-unemployment-rate-2024-8">There are two factors that will shape the stock market</a> for the rest of the year. </li><li>The S&amp;P 500 has an <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-presidential-election-prediction-winner-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-8">83% accuracy rate in determining the outcome of presidential elections</a>. Here's what to watch. </li><li>Palantir <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/kelly-cloonan?_gl=1*guld39*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyMzE0MDY1Ny4xMDIuMS4xNzIzMTQ1MTYxLjM5LjAuMA..">soared after announcing a deal with Microsoft</a> to sell AI tools to US defense and intelligence agencies.</li><li>The mortgage lock-in effect <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-mortgage-rates-lock-in-effect-economy-interest-rates-2024-8">shaved $20 billion off the US economy last year</a>. </li><li>China's imports last month surged 7.2% year-over-year as the country <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-imports-trade-war-biden-tariffs-chips-demand-economy-2024-8">moves to stockpile tech ahead of trade restrictions</a>, BofA said. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1% to $76.04 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, ticked higher 0.9% to $79.02 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> traded higher at $2,463.30</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 3.98%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 8% at $59,549.</li></ul>

Stock market today: S&P 500 has its best day since 2022 as stocks rally after encouraging labor market data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The cyclical bull rally starting in October 2022 is expected to last into 2025, according to Ned Davis Research.</li><li>The firm highlights a chart that shows the historical trends of cyclical bull market rallies, and when they typically end.</li></ul>The cyclical bull rally that started in October 2022 is set to last well into 2025, according to historical trends highlighted by Ned Davis Research.The research firm published a note last week that included a chart illustrating prior cyclical bull rallies within a secular bull market, as is the current rally.What Ned Davis Research found is that the average rally, based on the start date of the October 2022 stock market bottom, should last into the summer of 2025.And it could last even longer into 2026 if it follows the footsteps of the 2011 to 2015 cyclical bull rally, or well into 2030 if it follows the path of the technology-fueled cyclical rally of 1990 to 1998.<div type="image" title="Cyclical Bull Rally" height="708" width="954" msid="112146030" hostid="261" sizebytes="85196"></div>The bullish outlook from Ned Davis Research comes amid a slight correction in the stock market, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-nasdaq-tech-selloff-tesla-alphabet-q2-earnings-2024-7">Nasdaq 100 falling nearly 10% from its recent peak in July.</a>But the correction is just that, a short-term decline, and it doesn't mark the end of the bull rally, according to the note."The global soft landing evidence and accommodative monetary policies continue to bode well for long-term equity performance," Ned Davis Research said. "We expect to remain overweight equities, with the correction leading to a buying opportunity."The research firm currently recommends its maximum overweight target to equities at 70% in a balanced portfolio, with the remaining 25% and 5% being allocated to bonds and cash, respectively.Ned Davis Research said risks of a new bear market remain low, and that the current correction in stocks is perfectly normal given the seasonal weakness during the summer.Solid valuations, subdued investor sentiment, an ok macro environment, and falling bond yields mean "the weight of the evidence has remained consistent with an ongoing secular bull," Ned Davis Research said.To monitor the current health of the bull rally in stocks, the research firm suggests investors closely monitor earnings results.The rate at which US companies are beating analyst profit estimates has topped 75% for five straight quarters, according to the note, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-investors-data-earnings-july-fed-fomc-meeting-2024-7">results announced so far for the second quarter</a> suggest the streak will increase to six straight quarters.But if momentum in the earnings beat rates starts to decline, that would be a warning sign."If the beat rate starts declining with momentum turning negative, the increasing disappointment could trigger more selling. But if the beat rate remains elevated as the earnings season matures, the chances for a market recovery will improve," Ned Davis Research said.Ultimately, the recent correction "should give way to another leg higher in the continuing bull market," Ned Davis Research concluded.

This chart suggests the current bull market rally in stocks will extend into 2025

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump Media shares hit a record post-merger low on Tuesday.</li><li>The stock has slid alongside declining odds for a Donald Trump presidential victory.</li></ul>Shares in <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/djt-stock">Trump Media and Technology</a> are hovering near record lows amid falling election odds for Donald Trump.The Truth Social parent firm fell to a post-merger low of $21.33 on Tuesday before rebounding on during Wednesday trading.The decline tracks Trumps's declining odds to be elected as president in November. According to the betting market <a target="_blank" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election">PredictIt</a>, the former president's chances of retaking the Oval Office have dropped to 47% from 69% last month.In some respects, DJT stock has come to resemble a bet on Trump's victory chances. It spiked in mid-July, when the failed assassination attempt on Trump raised outlooks<a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-bank-earnings-07-15-2024/card/bettors-see-higher-chance-of-trump-election-victory-after-assassination-attempt-bCoaMgTJqJzEfOzKkwlc"> that he would win.</a>The emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris has since pushed the stock back into a tailspin. Her momentum revived chances of a Democratic presidency, which had slid heavily under Biden. She now holds a 56% implied probability of winning and has gradually gained a polling lead against Trump.This week will have especially weighed against Trump, with all eyes on the Democratic Convention.Shares have also <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-x-twitter-interview-elon-musk-truth-social-djt2024-8">fallen amid Trump's return to X, formerly Twitter,</a> a platform he was temporarily barred from in 2021. His comeback last week involved an interview with X CEO Elon Musk.However, some investors will likely find Trump's return disappointing since Truth Social was marketed as an alternative to Twitter.Meanwhile, Trump Media can depend little on its own performance, as the firm is not profitable, and has become a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-media-collapse-rally-meme-stock-djt-2024-5">reputed meme stock</a>.The company posted a $16 million loss in its latest earnings report and a decline in quarterly revenue.Falling shares are not a welcome sight for Trump, who owns around 60% of the firm. While regulation has barred insiders from cashing in this stake for six months since March, this limit will expire on September 20th.Trump has made no indication that he will cash in his shares, but is facing massive legal fees that could add pressure. According to Bloomberg, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-20/trump-is-about-to-get-the-all-clear-to-cash-in-on-media-shares">lawsuits and prosecutions</a> against the former president have amounted to over half a billion dollars in penalties.

Trump Media stock is trading near record lows as Kamala Harris reshuffles election odds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's proposed tariffs would lower S&amp;P 500 earnings as much as 4.7% next year, Barclays said.</li><li>The presidential candidate has pledged to unleash universal tariffs on all US trade if elected.</li></ul>Donald Trump's plan to tax virtually all US imports would take a big toll on 2025 earnings, according to Barclays research.Current outlooks view the election as a coin toss between Trump and Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival. But the outcome has high stakes for trade policy, as the former president has committed to unleashing trade barriers around the US."Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we've done for the world. And the tariff will be substantial in some cases," Trump said during the presidential debate on Tuesday.He previously said that if elected president, all countries could face a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">10% universal tariff</a>, while duties on Chinese products would reach as high as 60%. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/16/politics/trump-bloodbath-auto-industry-election/index.html">100% tariff</a> on cars imported through Mexico could also be in store, Barclays cited him as saying.If implemented, the bank expects these policies to cut into the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500's</a> earnings.To be sure, US firms have some way of navigating higher costs associated with tariffs, Barclays said. That includes shifting supply chains or passing prices on to consumers.But import duties will hit profit margins to a degree, as companies risk losing market share if they don't absorb some of the costs."We find that SPX earnings would be negatively impacted by 3.2% if the new Trump tariffs are enacted and another 1.5% if those countries were to retaliate with similar measures," analysts wrote on Thursday.Companies that rely more heavily on supply chains are especially at risk, with five sectors in most danger: materials, discretionary, industrials, technology, and healthcare, Barclays said.Discretionary stocks would suffer the largest earnings-per-share impact from import tariffs alone — sector earnings would fall around 10%, Barclays data showed.Meanwhile, materials is most impacted by retaliatory tariffs on exports. Sector earnings here would drop close to 8%.Other economists have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7">loudly criticized Trump's tariff idea</a> as fuel for inflation, given that prices will rise amid a pullback in foreign products.According to Barclays, inflation would climb 0.09 percentage points in the short run, and US GDP could take a 1.2% hit in the first 12 months."While the new proposed tariffs would have a modest direct negative impact on corporate earnings if implemented, the second order effects from higher cost inflation and slowing economic growth would be an incremental headwind to corporate earnings, and cause further pain," the bank said.

These 5 parts of the stock market are most at risk if Trump wins the election and implements wide-reaching tariffs, Barclays says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Evercore ISI expects a 10% surge in the stock market by year-end, driven by AI growth.</li><li>The firm raised its year-end S&amp;P 500 target to 6,000 and said the index could hit 7,000 by 2025. </li></ul>The stock market is poised surge another 10% by the end of the year, according to a new forecast from Evercore ISI.Evercore strategist and managing director Julian Emanuel increased his year-end <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> price target to a new high on Wall Street at 6,000 in a note on Sunday.Emanuel had previously had a year-end price target of 4,750.According to the note, the "AI revolution is in the early innings" and that should lead to continued strength in earnings growth. Emanuel forecasts S&amp;P 500 EPS growth of 8% and 5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively."The pandemic changed everything. Record stimulus, elevated household cash balances and low leverage support the consumer. Then came AI. Today, Gen AI's productivity potential in every job and sector is inflecting. The backdrop of slowing inflation, a Fed intent on cutting rates and steady growth have supported Goldilocks," Emanuel said.The S&amp;P 500 trading at 6,000 would imply a 25x trailing 12-month price-to-earnings multiple based on Emanuel's EPS estimate of $238 per share.While that valuation multiple is extended on a historical basis, it's still well below the dot-com bubble peak of 28x earnings."High multiples are supported by companies' proven record of managing costs and maintaining/growing margins," Emanuel explained.If the high valuation multiples persist, the S&amp;P 500 could rise 31% to 7,000 by the end of 2025."A simply time/price extrapolation of prior periods when valuations were as high as they are today could point to S&amp;P 500 at 7,000 by 4Q25/1Q26," Emanuel said.Along with the S&amp;P 500 price target boost, Evercore ISI upgraded the technology sector to "Outperform" from "In Line" based on aging demographics and the growing adoption of AI technologies."The sector is highly exposed to enabling and adopting Generative AI's productivity potential. It also stands to benefit from structural demographic trends as corporates invest in productivity as societies age and labor markets tighten over the long run," Emanuel explained.That thinking echoes sentiments from Fundstrat's Tom Lee, w<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/technology-stocks-sp500-share-outlook-labor-shortage-ai-productivity-boom-2024-5#:~:text=A%20global%20labor%20shortage%20of%20about%2080%20million%20workers%20by,benchmark%20index%20of%20around%2030%25.">ho expects a massive 10-year bull market driven by the adoption of AI technologies</a> to address a lingering labor shortage.Finally, Emanuel said that in his bull case scenario, in which investors <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-warning-signs-signals-ai-stocks-earnings-profits-2024-6?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">revisit dot-com bubble-levels of exuberance,</a> the S&amp;P 500 could soar to 6,500 by the end of 2024."Stocks are a long way from 'Bubble territory' but rapid gains, and abundant liquidity while earnings rise could 'inflate' — to 6,500," Emanuel said.

Evercore ISI upgrades its S&P 500 outlook to the highest on Wall Street as it says the AI revolution is just getting started

<ul><li>US stocks jumped on Monday, extending gains from last week as investors digest Q1 earnings results.</li><li>The upcoming earnings reports of Amazon and Apple later this week will grab investors' attention.</li><li>Also on the radar is this week's Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision and the April jobs report. </li></ul>US stocks gained on Monday, extending their jump from last week as investors feel optimistic about another wave of first-quarter earnings reports.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock?miRedirects=1">Amazon</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock?miRedirects=1">Apple</a> will headline this week's earnings results, and an additional 170 <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> companies are expected to report their results throughout the week. So far, about half of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Of those companies, 80% are beating profit estimates by a median of 7%, while 59% are beating revenue estimates by a median of 3%, according to data from Fundstrat.Apart from earnings, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-this-week-fed-meeting-tech-earnings-jobs-report-2024-4">investors will be paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting</a> on Wednesday. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors will be looking for clues from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the outlook of the economy and what the Fed might do in the coming months.Forecasters have greatly reduced expectations for rate cuts this year. On Monday, analysts at Macquarie predicted the next move from the central bank could be a hike, a stark about-face after the bank previously projected 225 basis points worth of rate cuts in 2024. Finally, investors will keep their eye on the April jobs report, which is set to be released on Friday. Economists expect 250,000 jobs to have been added to the economy in April, down from 303,000 jobs added in March. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,116.17, up 0.32% </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 38,387.06, up 0.39% (+147.40 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 15,983.08, up 0.35% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-today-elon-musk-china-full-self-driving-2024-4">Tesla stock soared 14% on Monday after Elon Musk visited China</a> and reportedly struck a deal to roll out Tesla's autonomous driving technology in China.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/falling-home-price-locations-us-housing-market-supply-florida-texas-2024-4">Florida and Texas are seeing a decline in home prices</a> because of too much supply and not enough demand, according to Redfin. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-us-economy-gdp-growth-outlook-recession-forecast-inflation-rates-2024-4">There's still the potential for the US economy to enter a dreaded period of stagflation,</a> according to two economists.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/new-stock-market-etf-offers-100-downside-protection-cpsm-calamos-2024-4">A new ETF that promises investors 100% downside protection to the stock market</a> is set to launch later this week. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/amazon-amzn-q1-earnings-report-preview-revenue-outlook-aws-ai-2024-4">Here's what Wall Street is expecting from Amazon's first-quarter earnings results.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 1.31% to $82.75 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 1.09% to $88.52 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged lower by 0.09% to $2,345.20 per ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.62%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower by 0.41% to $62,855. </li></ul>

You Searched For "technology stocks outlook" and got 12 results

Chief strategists project their outlooks on stocks, bonds, currencies, and gold amid a Trump victory

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Shopify's 25% gain sends Canada's benchmark stock index to all-time highs

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Amazon stock jumps most in 9 months as cost cuts, cloud spark earnings beat

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Why Goldman Sachs' prediction of a lost decade for stocks is wrong, according to a market vet

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The stock market's recession playbook is in full effect

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How 4 possible presidential election results could impact stocks

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Stock market today: S&P 500 has its best day since 2022 as stocks rally after encouraging labor market data

Kelly Cloonan

This chart suggests the current bull market rally in stocks will extend into 2025

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Trump Media stock is trading near record lows as Kamala Harris reshuffles election odds

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These 5 parts of the stock market are most at risk if Trump wins the election and implements wide-reaching tariffs, Barclays says

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Evercore ISI upgrades its S&P 500 outlook to the highest on Wall Street as it says the AI revolution is just getting started

Matthew Fox

Stock market today: US stocks edge higher ahead of earnings deluge and Fed policy meeting

Matthew Fox

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