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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's election victory last week is already having an effect on global supply chains.</li><li>While many firms are waiting to see what Trump's trade policies will be, some are moving ahead.</li></ul>Last week's electoral victory of Donald Trump is having an immediate effect on global supply chains, with several companies publicly discussing production changes they've made ahead of his return to the White House.During the campaign, Trump vowed to enact sweeping trade restrictions ranging from across-the-board import duties to increasing the cost of goods from China through tariffs as high as 60% to 100%.The wide range of possible outcomes has many firms waiting to see what the actual trade policies will be before enacting a final plan. Others are already moving ahead with elements of their supply chain strategy."I don't think anybody's surprised," TD Cowen analyst Oliver Chen told Business Insider. "The probability factor was high for either side."Further softening the element of surprise is the fact that the world has already experienced Trump's approach to trade — and China in particular — in his previous administration, which led many companies to develop more flexible sourcing.Bark Box CEO Matt Meeker called the reelection of Donald Trump "a bit of Groundhog Day for us."Before Trump became the Republican nominee, many companies were already exploring alternatives to their former reliance on China by finding partners in other Asian countries, or by "near-shoring" production to the Americas.Much of the executive commentary on earnings calls during election week signaled a wait-and-see approach regarding what the Trump administration will enact. Executives have also touted the agility of their current strategies.Several companies, however, aren't waiting to make changes to their supply chains.Premier Inc., a healthcare company that provides an array of products and services, said it has brought production of essential items, like face masks and isolation gowns, closer to the US as part of a multi-year effort to lessen dependence on Southeast Asia.Last week, CEO Michael Alkire said Premier's partners are asking the company to continue looking for sourcing that will be less affected by tariffs.Fortune Brands, which owns a portfolio of home products brands like Moen plumbing fixtures and Yale locks, has been rethinking its supply chain since Trump's tariffs in 2017."We've moved away almost everywhere from single source," CEO Nick Fink said. "Your secondary source may cost you a bit more than your primary source, but if your primary source were to become more expensive because of tariffs, you can dial that down and dial up your secondary source and rebalance it to be the most efficient.""We are very well positioned to handle increased tariffs," he added. "We don't invite it because it's a lot of hard work."In consumer goods, cooler brand Yeti started production earlier this year at its second non-China drinkware factory and said it is in the process of opening a third. By the end of next year, half of its drinkware production capacity will be out of China, the company said.Outdoor equipment and lifestyle products maker Clarus said it still has some production in China — Black Diamond headlamps and footwear — and is moving production to Vietnam and other countries.If a significant tariff increase is directed at China, Black Diamond brand president Neil Fiske said the company is prepared to pull orders forward."We may end up hedging inventory a little bit to buy us consistency in our pricing as we diversify," he said.Meanwhile, Rivian founder and CEO Robert Scaringe said the EV maker has chosen suppliers that it doesn't expect to ever be exposed to large tariffs, as well as writing contracts "in such a way that we're not carrying much of the risk.""What's going to be interesting is how far this reaches into the upstream supply chain," he added, referring to raw materials like steel and lithium. "That's something that every manufacturer, certainly ourselves included, are thinking about."Not everyone is talking trade, however.US trucking and logistics company Schneider National's executive vice president, Jim Filter, said clients are not yet asking him about how to get ahead of tariffs.If they do, he said, "that would happen at a little bit faster pace than what we would normally see, as currently our customers are really operating just under normal replenishment cycle, preparing for this holiday push."

Trump's win is already scrambling supply chains

India remains highly dependent on imports for minerals critical to accelerating its <keyword id="19951336" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-transition" source="keywords">energy transition</keyword>, with a full reliance on shipping in lithium, cobalt and nickel, according to a report released Monday. The report, published by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said that India's demand for <keyword id="19978839" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="critical-minerals" source="keywords">critical minerals</keyword> is expected to more than double by 2030, while domestic mining operations may take over a decade to start producing. It stresses that India needs a carefully crafted import strategy to mitigate potential trade risks while balancing international relationships to secure these essential minerals. IEEFA's report examines five critical minerals (and their compounds) - cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium and nickel - from the perspectives of import dependency, trade dynamics, domestic availability, and global price fluctuations. The findings show that India remains largely import-dependent for these minerals and their compounds, with 100 per cent import reliance for minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. "India should strive to de-risk its critical minerals sourcing by identifying new international resources and expediting <keyword id="20681115" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-production" source="keywords">domestic production</keyword>. A concerted effort to partner with and foster bilateral relations with <keyword id="23713985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mineral-rich-nations" source="keywords">mineral-rich nations</keyword> should be a priority for India," said the report's co-author Charith Konda, Energy Specialist, IEEFA. "The country can also explore investment opportunities in resource-rich, friendly nations, such as Australia and Chile, as well as African countries like Ghana and South Africa," he added. The report said India depends heavily on China for synthetic graphite and natural graphite and it should explore cooperation initiatives with countries like Mozambique, Madagascar, Brazil and Tanzania which are some of the highest graphite producing countries. "As part of the Global South cooperation initiatives, these countries could be favourable partners for India for <keyword id="23713984" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="graphite-trading" source="keywords">graphite trading</keyword>," said the report's co-author Kaira Rakheja, Energy Analyst, IEEFA. India is also highly import-dependent for copper cathodes and nickel sulphates from just two countries - Japan and Belgium. The report suggests India could look at the US, the fifth largest producer of copper in the world, to diversify its suppliers and enhance <keyword id="23714709" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="supply-security" source="keywords">supply security</keyword>. For minerals like lithium oxide and nickel oxide, the dependency is low on one country, but overall imports largely come from Russia and China, both countries with potential trade risks. "Developing domestic lithium refining capacity will help India integrate with the global lithium supply chain," said Rakheja. The report also notes the significant efforts that the Indian government is making to improve domestic production of critical minerals with the auctions by the Ministry of Mines and the planned Critical Minerals Mission. "The critical minerals mining block auctions can serve as an opportunity for India to focus on building refining and processing capabilities to emerge as a global value-adding hub," said Rakheja. "Government support in the form of viability gap funding and technology development will help promote such auctions and ultimately the domestic production of critical minerals. "A stable supply of critical minerals is imperative for India to achieve its <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> goals," Konda said. India has committed to achieving 500 gigawatts (GW) of non-fossil fuel-based electricity installed capacity by 2030. Currently, the country's renewable energy installed capacity stands at 201 GW, with solar energy accounting for 91 GW. According to another study, the fast-developing South Asian nation needs to install around 7,000 GW of renewable energy capacity to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.

Energy transition: India remains highly dependent on imports of critical minerals, says report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AWS is negotiating a potential $475 million AI cloud deal with IBM.</li><li>IBM already uses AWS services for AI, including training models on EC2 servers with Nvidia chips.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ibm-exec-companies-focus-training-employees-ai-skills-tech-impact-2024-9">IBM</a> needs more Nvidia GPUs. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-data-centers-delays-costs-power-labor-shortages-aws-ai-2024-10">Amazon</a> Web Services wants to provide them via the cloud.AWS is in talks for a potential deal worth roughly $475 million over 5 years to give IBM access to Nvidia <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gpu-rich-vs-gpu-poor-tech-companies-in-each-group-2023-8">GPUs</a> through its cloud service, according to an internal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ceo-explains-why-he-wants-fewer-managers-hate-bureaucracy-2024-11">Amazon</a> document obtained by Business Insider.Under such a deal, IBM would use AWS's EC2 servers that come equipped with Nvidia's AI chips, the document stated. IBM Research has already started training some of its AI models on EC2 servers using AWS's machine learning platform SageMaker, the document also explained.One person familiar with the document and the negotiations said the IBM deal is for AI training and the talks are ongoing. This person asked not to be identified discussing private matters. Further details could not be learned. As with any deal talks, such negotiations could end without a final agreement being signed. Spokespeople for AWS and IBM didn't respond to requests for comment.The potential deal could expand the partnership between AWS and IBM in the AI space. In May, IBM <a target="_blank" href="https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-05-21-IBM-Expands-watsonx-Portfolio-on-AWS,-Adds-watsonx-governance-to-Help-Clients-Scale-Responsible-AI">announced</a> it was increasing its use of AWS across its Watson AI platform.The negotiations also highlight continued demand for Nvidia GPUs. AWS has developed its own AI chips, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-nvidia-aws-ai-chip-dominance-gpu-trainium-inferentia-2024-5">Trainium </a>and Inferentia, and has been pitching cloud customers on using these. Amazon CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ceo-andy-jassy-even-more-bullish-ai-cloud-opportunity-2024-10">Andy Jassy</a> said recently that AWS's AI chips are more appealing because of their price and energy efficiency compared to other offerings. Efforts here have been mixed so far, and it's unclear if an IBM deal would include access to these <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aws-ai-chips-wider-regional-availability-microsoft-google-2024-9">homegrown Amazon components</a>.Still, an AI cloud deal like this would be a further boost for AWS. During a call with analysts last month, Jassy said the company's AI business is on pace to generate "multi-billion dollars" in revenue this year, growing at "triple digit percentages year over year." Amazon's AI business is "growing three times faster at its stage of evolution than AWS did itself," he added.In the most recent quarter, AWS <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-stock-earnings-report-call-live-updates-2024-10">reported</a> $27.5 billion in revenue, up 19% from the year-ago period. Amazon is on pace to invest more than $75 billion in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-microsoft-google-meta-wild-spending-ai-infrastructure-cloud-2024-11">capex</a> this year, and even more next year, mostly on cloud infrastructure such as GPUs, networking, and data centers.Do you work at Amazon? Got a tip?Contact the reporter, Eugene Kim, via the encrypted-messaging apps Signal or Telegram (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" class="c-link">+1-650-942-3061</a><a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow">) or email (</a><a target="_blank" href="mailto:ekim@businessinsider.com">ekim@businessinsider.com</a><a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="mailto:ekim@businessinsider.com">). Reach out using a non</a>work device. Check out Business Insider's <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/insider-guide-to-securely-sharing-whistleblower-information-about-powerful-institutions-2021-10">source guide for other t</a>ips on sharing information securely.

AWS is negotiating a huge deal to supply IBM with Nvidia GPUs via the cloud

Billionaire <keyword id="19929098" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gautam-adani" source="keywords">Gautam Adani</keyword>'s group will supply <keyword id="19914923" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="clean-energy" source="keywords">clean energy</keyword> to power Google's cloud services and operations in India, the two firms said on Thursday. <keyword id="19955648" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Adani-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Group" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Adani Group">Adani group</keyword> will supply 61.4 megawatt of electricity from a new <keyword id="21342349" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="solar-wind-hybrid-project" source="keywords">solar-wind hybrid project</keyword> located at its 30 gigawatt (GW) Khavda renewable energy park in Gujarat. Google powers most of its cloud operations and services through electricity procured from the grid and is planning to run the entire operations on clean energy by 2030. Adani is expected to start commercial operations in the third quarter of 2025. At the '<keyword id="23413952" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Google-for-India" source="keywords">Google for India</keyword>' event, the search giant also announced a partnership with CleanMax for sourcing 125.4 MW of clean energy to power its offices and cloud regions in India. Of the contracted volumes, 66 MW solar energy will come from Rajasthan and 59.4 MW wind energy from Karantaka. "These projects are expected to start commercial operations in Q4 2025 and will deliver <keyword id="22243112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="carbon-free-energy" source="keywords">carbon-free energy</keyword> to the grid where Google operates offices and cloud regions in India," Google said. While Google made the announcement at the 'Google for India' event here, the Adani Group gave details in a statement. "Through this partnership Adani will supply clean energy from a new solar-wind hybrid project located in the world's largest renewable energy plant at Khavda, Gujarat. This new project is expected to start commercial operations in the third quarter of 2025," the Adani group statement said. This innovative collaboration will help advance Google's 24/7 carbon-free energy goal by ensuring cloud services and operations in India are supported by clean energy and thereby contribute to the <keyword id="20289318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sustainable-growth" source="keywords">sustainable growth</keyword> of Google in India. Adani had previously announced plans to set up data centres run on clean energy. It had in October 2022 leased 4.64 lakh square feet of space at its data centre in Noida to Raiden Infotech, an entity of Google.

Adani to supply clean energy for Google's cloud operations in India

Dubai: Under the directives of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, <keyword id="23305602" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Dubai-Humanitarian" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Dubai Humanitarian" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Dubai Humanitarian">Dubai Humanitarian</keyword> has airlifted another consignment of urgent relief supplies for Gaza. The aid was transported via El Arish, Egypt, in a coordinated effort to support the affected and displaced population. A Boeing 747, departing from Dubai Royal Air Wing, carried 71.6 metric tonnes (MT) of essential <keyword id="20125551" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="medical-supplies" source="keywords">medical supplies</keyword>, including cholera treatment kits, Interagency Emergency Health Kits (IEHK), and Emergency Relief Health (ERH) kits provided by the World Health Organisation (<keyword id="19895006" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WHO" source="keywords">WHO</keyword>) and the World Food Programme-United Nations Humanitarian Response Depot (WFP-UNHRD). Mohammed Al Shaibani, Chairman of Dubai Humanitarian, expressed deep concern for those affected by the crisis, stating, "At Dubai Humanitarian, our priority is to alleviate the suffering of the people affected by the devastating conflict in Gaza. With the invaluable support of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, we are able to swiftly mobilise aid and reach those who are enduring unimaginable hardships. We remain committed to ensuring that essential relief reaches the people who need it most." This is the 19th shipment Dubai Humanitarian has facilitated for Gaza since the beginning of the emergency in October 2023. The supplies, valued at AED3.8 million ($1,037,560), are expected to aid over 300,000 Gazans, offering life-saving relief. Dr. Hanan Balkhy, Regional Director for WHO's Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, said, "WHO has delivered over US$9.2 million in essential medicines, health supplies, and equipment for Gaza since the conflict began, representing nearly 40 percent of all shipments from our logistics hub in Dubai. The flight, carrying 62.3 metric tonnes of life-saving medicines for non-communicable and communicable diseases, is one of a total of 13 charter flights coordinated by Dubai Humanitarian for WHO since the start of the crisis, allowing us and our partners to swiftly deliver critical health supplies. This lifeline has been made possible by the generous support and coordination of the Government of Dubai and Dubai Humanitarian, whose strong partnerships are vital to our humanitarian efforts in Gaza and beyond." "Thanks to the UAE leadership, the bold foresight of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and Dubai Humanitarian's strong support, the UAE has shown steadfast commitment to humanitarian action across the globe for decades. This latest airlift of 71 metric tonnes of life-saving relief supplies to the most vulnerable people of Gaza is a clear illustration of this enduring commitment. As the humanitarian logistics arm of the United Nations, WFP is proud to do its part to complement UN and other humanitarian partners' efforts to provide timely and effective support to those most in need", said Stephen Anderson, WFP Representative to the GCC. In parallel, Dubai Humanitarian continues to support the international humanitarian community's global response efforts, including through the Global Humanitarian Impact Fund (GHIF). Recently, Dubai Humanitarian also facilitated the transportation of medical supplies to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to combat the MPOX outbreak in collaboration with the World Health Organisation.

Dubai Humanitarian airlifts 71.6 MT of critical medical supplies to Gaza

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Boeing and Airbus could face difficulties as dockworkers go on strike.</li><li>Both plane makers ship some components to their plants in North Carolina and Alabama.</li></ul>Plane makers in the US could be further hampered by strike action as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/longshoremen-strike-leaves-east-and-gulf-coast-ports-shuttered-2024-9">dockworkers take to the picket lines</a>.Ports on the East and Gulf Coasts have been shut down as 45,000 workers represented by the International Longshoremen's Association went on strike Tuesday.Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-union-criticizes-new-offers-blatant-show-of-disrespect-2024-9">Boeing</a> is in the third week of a labor dispute with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers that has resulted in strike action at its Seattle-area facilities.Boeing also has a plant in Charleston, South Carolina for the 787 Dreamliner. Most parts are sent by air, but some arrive by sea, aerospace outlet Leeham News reported.Boeing did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent by Business Insider, but told it did not "currently" expect any impact.<div type="image" title="workers and planes at Boeing's 787 Dreamliner factory in Charleston, South Carolina" height="2823" width="3932" msid="113878398" hostid="261" sizebytes="1080118"></div>Supply-chain disruption has been a major problem for the aviation industry this year due to issues including shortages of materials and skilled labor. Orders were down at July's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/neither-boeing-nor-airbus-won-this-years-farnborough-airshow-2024-7">Farnborough Airshow</a> as plane makers and airlines alike voiced their frustrations about limited output.If dockworkers remain on strike for some time, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbus-lowers-targets-after-benefiting-from-boeing-struggles-2024-6">Airbus</a> could also face disruption as it has a plant in Mobile, Alabama. The factory is the final assembly line for some North American customers' A319, A320, A321, and A220 jets.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbus-struggling-outsider-beating-boeing-737-max-a320neo-2024-1">A320 family</a> is the world's most popular narrowbody range, outselling the Boeing 737, to the extent that its backlog numbered over 7,000 as of July. Strike disruption could be a further setback.Some major A320 family components, including fuselage sections and wings, are shipped from France to Mobile once a month, Airbus <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2019-03-a-new-transatlantic-link-for-airbus-assembly-network">said</a> in a 2019 press release."If it is a long strike, there could be some shortages at the Mobile production facility," Alex Krutz, an aerospace analyst with Patriot Industrial Partners, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/protracted-longshoremen-strike-could-disrupt-airbus-production-in-mobile-analysts/160154.article">FlightGlobal</a>. "It's a very real possibility that certain components or structures are not available."However, an Airbus spokesperson told Leeham News: "We are aware of the situation and have taken actions to mitigate the potential impact on our operations in Mobile."Airbus did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Dockworkers strike could compound supply-chain problems for Boeing and Airbus

India has been elected as vice-chair of the <keyword id="22613770" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Supply-Chain-Council" source="Orion">supply chain council</keyword> -- one of the three bodies set up by the 14-member <keyword id="22613768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IPEF-bloc" source="Orion">IPEF bloc</keyword> -- the commerce ministry said on Wednesday. India and 13 other <keyword id="13970123" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indo-Pacific-Economic-Framework" source="Orion">Indo-Pacific Economic Framework</keyword> (<keyword id="277906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="IPEF" source="Orion">IPEF</keyword>) partners have established three bodies under the IPEF's agreement on <keyword id="118965" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="supply-chain" source="Orion">supply chain</keyword> resilience. The pact came into force in February this year. The inaugural virtual meetings of the Supply Chain Council (SCC), Crisis Response Network (CRN), and Labour Rights Advisory Board (LRAB) marked a step forward for cooperation among partner countries for strengthening supply chain resilience in the region, the ministry said. The agreement will help mitigate risks of economic disruptions from supply chain shocks and improve crisis coordination. It will also help member countries like India to reduce their dependence on China and provide timely information to the IPEF member countries about potential supply disruptions. It added that the council was set up to pursue targeted, action-oriented work to strengthen the supply chains for those sectors and goods most critical to national security, public health, and economic well-being. Similarly, the Crisis Response Network would provide a forum for a collective emergency response to exigent or imminent disruptions; and the board would bring together workers, employers, and governments at the same table to strengthen labour rights and workforce development across regional supply chains. "During meetings, each of the three supply chain bodies elected a Chair and Vice Chair, who will serve for a term of two years," it said, adding that the US is chair of the council and the board: while Korea and Japan will be chair and vice chair for the network. Fiji is the vice-chair for the labour board. It added that the Supply Chain Council adopted Terms of Reference and discussed initial work priorities, to be further explored at its first in-person meeting to be held in Washington in September 2024 on the margins of the Supply Chain Summit. The crisis response network discussed priorities, including conducting a tabletop exercise, and planned its first in-person meeting to be held alongside with the summit. "The Labor Rights Advisory Board discussed priorities on strengthening labour rights across IPEF supply chains," it said. IPEF was launched on May 23, 2022 in Tokyo. The members are Australia, Brunei, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the US. The IPEF seeks to strengthen economic engagement and cooperation among partner countries with the goal of advancing growth, economic stability and prosperity in the region. The framework is structured around four pillars relating to Trade (Pillar I); Supply Chain Resilience (Pillar II); Clean Economy (Pillar III); and Fair Economy (Pillar IV). India had joined Pillars II to IV of IPEF while it has maintained an observer status in Pillar-I.

India elected as vice-chair of supply chain council—one of the three bodies set up by 14-member IPEF bloc

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Helene, the dockworkers' strike, and Middle East conflict threaten to upend the US economy.</li><li>Oil prices are up as conflict widens between Israel and Iran.</li></ul>A sudden flurry of global developments has the US economy staring down a troubling trifecta of major crises.Devastation from Hurricane Helene, a dockworkers' strike, and escalating conflict in the Middle East all threaten to scramble supply chains and inflate prices. The confluence of events comes just as the US economy is recovering from a years-long bout of elevated inflation. Coupled with a cooling but still-strong labor market, it looked possible the US would avoid a recession. These events could threaten that.While the effects of Iran's<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10"> missile</a> attack on Israel on Tuesday are more speculative, the other two crises happening on American soil could have more predictable impacts. Experts point to direct impacts on the prices of goods like oil, food, and industrial equipment as well as infrastructure damage that would create knock-on effects across industries.For now, it's a waiting game. Many of the effects depend on how long the strike and cleanup last and how quickly the parties responsible for resolving them can act.<h2 id="bb66dc7c-8a7f-46f6-83fe-f763c7971b08">1. Escalation in the Middle East</h2>On Tuesday, the risk of a full-blown war between Iran and Israel escalated when Iran <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">launched a massive ballistic missile</a> attack on its adversary.It came less than a day after Israel ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah with an invasion of southern Lebanon. The heightening conflict also threatens to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warns-severe-consequences-for-iran-after-attack-on-israel-2024-10">further entangle the US</a>, which announced it's sending additional fighter jets and thousands of troops to the Middle East to defend Israel and reinforce US troops already in the region.Since Iran's offensive, the price of oil has surged up, raising concerns that a broader conflict could push oil and gas prices higher. When petroleum prices rise, that also impacts the cost of plastics, which could raise prices on a range of goods. Some experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/israel-iranian-oil-refineries-retaliatory-strikes">warn that Israel could target Iranian oil production facilities</a> in potential retaliatory attacks, which could risk further oil price increases."History would say that when there is conflict in the region, the prices of petroleum remain elevated and could continue to rise," Douglas Kent, an executive vice president at the Association for Supply Chain Management, told Business Insider.<h2 id="74292a69-7822-4de1-bb2c-cdde4749d751">2. Dockworkers on strike</h2>Also on Tuesday, dockworkers at all the eastern US ports from Maine to Texas went on strike, threatening <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10">a slew of adverse economic impacts</a>, including increased prices on key goods ahead of the holiday shopping season.About 30% of goods imported to and exported from the US pass through the East Coast and Gulf ports, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis, along with about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-markets-react-israel-iran-escalates-dockworkers-strike-helene-2024-10">half of all US ocean imports</a>. The strike could cause shortages of goods and push consumer prices up, but how much depends entirely on how long the work stoppage lasts, experts say.A few days of snarled supply chains likely wouldn't be a major hit to the economy, while a week or longer could have major impacts. Every day, the work stoppage is costing the economy up to $4.5 billion, according to JPMorgan analysts. If the strike goes for at least two weeks, it may <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-port-strike-biggest-stock-market-winners-losers-investing-analysis-2024-10?_gl=1*w94t9f*_ga*MTM5OTQyNzAxOS4xNjc1MDExMTIw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzg4MTM4OC4zNTQuMS4xNzI3ODgzOTYyLjQ5LjAuMA..">increase inflation.</a> If it lasts a month, it could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-impact-costs-us-economy-recession-outlook-shipping-delay-2024-10">cause a recession</a>.And the strike will also have knock-on impacts. For every day the ports are closed, it will take an estimated five days for supply chains to get back to normal, Kent said."We are in a bit of a wait-and-see mode about what the impacts are going to be," Sameera Fazili, former deputy director of the National Economic Council under Biden, told BI. "If the strike goes on for one day or three days, it could take two weeks for some companies to recover, some industries to recover, it could take months for others to fully recover."Some of the imported consumer goods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-products-most-likely-to-be-impacted-by-port-strike-2024-9">most vulnerable to the port closures</a> include perishable foods like fresh fruits and vegetables, wine, beer, liquor, toys, tires, furniture, and raw commodities like salt, sugar, and gypsum. Kent noted that automotive, pharmaceutical, and industrial equipment supply chains are also vulnerable. US meat, dairy, and poultry exports <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-port-strike-hurt-agriculture-livestorck-dairy-farmers-presidential-election-2024-10">could also be disrupted</a>, as well as coal and heavy agricultural equipment.How much the strike impacts prices depends on how much of a cushion companies have built to deal with any bottlenecks. With the memory of pandemic supply chain crises still fresh, many businesses have become better prepared for disruptions by importing goods ahead of schedule in anticipation of the strike or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polb.com/port-info/news-and-press/port-of-long-beach-achieves-busiest-month-on-record-09-12-2024/">diverting shipments</a> to West Coast ports."The 2020 disruption presented unforeseen challenges but encouraged many firms to diversify their supply chain and seek backup sourcing: preparation that will likely soften the blow of the dockworker strike," Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics, said in a statement.But mitigation efforts, including redirecting shipments, cost money and push prices up. Bottlenecks also encourage carriers to raise their prices, increasing retail and consumer goods prices, Kent said.Fazili said she's confident the dockworkers' union — the International Longshoremen's Association — and the organization representing their employers — the United States Maritime Alliance — can come to a deal to raise wages and improve benefits for workers. With the election looming, Biden administration officials are particularly incentivized to grease the wheels of their negotiations.<h2 id="b5a7373b-dcda-4543-bf11-a8ea2a739cbd">3. Natural disaster strikes the South</h2>All of this comes as Southern states are scrambling to handle the fallout from a superstorm with billions of dollars in damage. Dozens of people have been killed in the flooding, landslides, and high winds wrought by Hurricane Helene, which washed out an untold number of roads, destroyed homes, and devastated entire towns. Rescue and recovery efforts are still underway, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/hurricane/helene/north-carolina-hurricane-helene-missing-people-finder-victims-survivors/275-d811bbc2-754d-4637-b156-7e4af6e1eadb">hundreds of people still missing</a>, particularly in North Carolina.The storm will likely have far-reaching economic impacts, including the immediate costs of providing emergency services for thousands of residents left homeless or without power or water, and the longer-term costs of rebuilding roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Helene has likely caused between $15 billion and $26 billion in damage to property on top of about $5 billion to $8 billion in lost economic output, according to Moody's Analytics.In the immediate wake of the storm, a slew of residents across the affected states have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/price-gouging-complaints-surge-hurricane-helene-states-fuel-water-hotels-2024-10">reported price gouging</a> by hotels, gas stations, and grocery stores. The hurricane has also disrupted some supply chains, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/01/hurricane-helene-iv-fluid-shortage-health-supply-chain">healthcare supplies</a> and high-purity quartz needed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">for semiconductor manufacturing</a>."The combination of these events just reemphasizes how important it is for the private sector and companies, which are the ones that control supply chains, to move away from just-in-time and from efficiency only and to recognize that disruptions are on the rise and they ought to be better prepared for that," Fazili said.But the superstorm also threatens much longer-term economic damage, hitting the property insurance industry and the federal flood insurance program. Homeowners in affected areas will likely deal with rising property insurance costs or even lose coverage altogether, experts say."In the short run, the most costly element of the disaster is the damage to homes, property and infrastructure," Adam Kamins, a senior director at Moody's Analytics, told BI. "Longer term, the disaster itself is unlikely to drive people out of the hardest-hit areas, but insurance premiums could rise, denting affordability. This would be especially difficult for Florida, where many private insurers have already left the state."

A trifecta of global crises could snarl supply chains and increase prices

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Lithuanian customs intercepted military supplies leaving the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.</li><li>It said the supplies were volunteer donations meant for the Russian army. It handed them to Ukraine.</li></ul>Lithuanian customs officials say they intercepted shipments of military supplies en route by rail to Moscow — and sent them straight to Ukraine.Customs officials inspecting carriages on Lithuania's southwestern border <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://lrmuitine.lt/web/guest/naujienos/aktualijos/aktualija?p_p_id=EXT_WPLISTALLNEWS&amp;p_p_lifecycle=0&amp;_EXT_WPLISTALLNEWS_obj_id=090004d2801f8304">said</a> that between September 27 and October 2, they found parcels of camouflage pants and nets in four separate shipments.They said the trains were traveling from Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave bordering Lithuania and Poland, to Moscow.<div type="image" title="Kaliningrad Map" height="701" width="1155" msid="114017676" hostid="261" sizebytes="151106"></div>The officials said the cargo was classified as military and needed a special permit, and that the shipments were likely sent by Russian volunteer groups trying to support President Vladimir Putin's war effort.It's not the first incident to crop up on the trans-Lithuania railway route between Kaliningrad and Moscow.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-finds-military-supplies-on-kaliningrad-train/">According to the Kyiv Independent,</a> a train carriage was recently graffitied with a "Z" — the symbol used by the Russian military — and another with the message that Lithuania's capital, Vilnius, is a "Russian city."Lithuania, which was once part of the Soviet Union, has been one of Ukraine's staunchest allies.In terms of aid sent to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP, it comes behind only Denmark and Estonia, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/">according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's aid tracker</a>.The tracker said that Lithuania had sent $812 million in military aid and $110 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine between the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and June this year, amounting to 1.43% of Lithuania's GDP.While the US has sent far more — about $75 billion in combined military, humanitarian, and financial aid in the same timeframe — that sum represents about 0.35% of US GDP, per the tracker.In March, Lithuania's prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-not-stopped-in-ukraine-all-europe-problem-lithuania-pm-2024-3">told Business Insider</a>: "If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, then whatever happens next is Europe's problem at large."Lithuania is among several NATO countries bordering Russia that are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/these-nato-frontline-countries-are-readying-for-war-with-russia-2024-3">readying for a potential Russian invasion</a>, amping up their military spending and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/estonia-latvia-lithuania-building-hundreds-bunkers-defend-against-russia-ukraine-2024-2">constructing a defensive</a> line along the collective 1,000 miles of border between Russia and Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.

Lithuania says it intercepted military supplies on their way to Russia, and sent them to Ukraine instead

Sustainable Supply Chain Management

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hundreds of pagers throughout Lebanon were detonated on Tuesday.</li><li>An attack of this scale likely required months of planning, an arms expert told BI.</li></ul>The Tuesday <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">attack in Lebanon,</a> where hundreds of pagers used by the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah simultaneously detonated, points to a highly sophisticated operation that likely required months of planning and an infiltration of a global supply chain, experts told Business Insider.At least 2,800 people were injured and 12 killed, The Associated Press reported, citing the Lebanese Health Ministry. The pagers exploded in Lebanon around Tuesday late afternoon. On Wednesday, a more limited attack involving <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-devices-explode-in-lebanon-after-deadly-hezbollah-pager-blasts-2024-9">walkie-talkies and solar equipment</a> that exploded injured hundreds more and killed at least 20 people, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah-syria-ce6af3c2e6de0a0dddfae48634278288">AP report</a>, which cited the Lebanese Health Ministry.Israel has not commented or claimed responsibility for the attack. US and other officials who were briefed on the operation and who spoke on the condition of anonymity told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-pagers-explosives.html">The New York Times</a> that Israel was behind the attack and infiltrated a batch of Taiwanese-branded pagers in order to plant explosives inside the device.Spokespeople for the Israel Defense Forces and the US Department of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.An attack of this size requires a massive amount of technical capabilities involving intelligence gathering and months of planning, a national security expert and arms expert told BI."The scale of this operation suggests a complex supply-chain attack executed by a state actor," N.R. Jenzen-Jones, a director at the Armament Research Services, told BI. "This would have required a significant investment in terms of manpower and other resources, and likely months of planning."And if Israel was indeed behind the attack, as US officials have said, then it comes as no surprise from a country that has already proven its technical prowess, Sean McFate, a national security and foreign policy expert at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship &amp; Public Affairs, told BI."Israel is a very tech-savvy state with its own 'Wadi Valley,' as they put it," McFate said.Supply-chain experts also told BI that the attack showcases how vulnerabilities in global supply chains are often overlooked and can be exploited in warfare."The fact that explosives were implanted in the pagers before reaching Hezbollah shows the challenges of securing electronics sourcing, especially with international shipments," Robert Khachatryan, CEO of Freight Right Global Logistics, told BI.Images online appear to show that the pagers in the attack had branding from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollahs-exploding-pagers-bought-taiwanese-company-denied-israel-explosive-material-2024-9">Gold Apollo</a>, a company based in Taiwan, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-firm-denies-making-pagers-used-lebanon-explosions-rcna171594">NBC News</a> reported. The company told the outlet in a statement that a Hungary-based entity called BAC Consulting was authorized to use Gold Apollo's branding and that the "design and manufacturing of the prodcuts are entirely handled by BAC."Cristiana Bársony-Arcidiacono, the chief executive of BAC, denied making the pagers in a statement to NBC News and said that she was "just the intermediate."Gold Apollo did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Business Insider was not able to reach BAC Consulting for comment. The company's website appeared to be down as of Wednesday evening.Jenzen-Jones said that while supply chain attacks are often thought of in the context of cyberattacks, "sabotaging enemy supply lines has a long history in warfare."In 2012, The New York Times published a story about a US-run covert program for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://archive.nytimes.com/atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/dirty-tricks-of-government-forces-where-deception-and-deadliness-meet-inside-a-gun/">booby-trapping ammunition</a> intended to be used by the Taliban.The size of Tuesday's attack in Lebanon and the targeting of an object like a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-decided-months-ago-switch-from-cellphones-pagers-just-exploded-2024-9">pager</a> rather than weapons is what makes this operation different, Jenzen-Jones said."For an attack of this sort — one using modified everyday objects to deliver potentially lethal effects in a targeted fashion — the scale of the operation is unprecedented," he said.

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