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<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were traded mixed on Monday amid a 6% surge in Tesla stock.</li><li>Fed Chair Powell's speech dampened rate-cut expectations last week, impacting market sentiment.</li></ul>US stocks traded mixed on Monday after seeing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-rate-cut-odds-fed-powell-comments-hawkish-2024-11">sharp losses on Friday</a> sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.Powell said in a speech on Thursday that the Fed is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-fed-powell-comments-rate-cut-odds-rally-2024-11">not in a rush to cut</a> interest rates, sparking investor worries that the Fed may not be as aggressive as previously thought in lowering rates.Investors are now pricing in a 58% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at December's Fed meeting, down from 80% before Powell's comments.On Monday morning, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.2%, driven by a surge in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a> stock. Shares of the EV maker jumped as much as 6% after a Bloomberg report said the Trump administration plans to ease self-driving car regulations.Looking ahead, investors will be focused on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia's</a> earnings report, which is due after the market closes on Wednesday.For economic data, traders will be paying attention to housing starts and building permits, due out Tuesday morning, followed by existing home sales and initial jobless claims set to be released Thursday morning. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,874.71, up 0.1%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,412.30, down 0.1% (28 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,719.03, up 0.2%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">The stock market's Trump honeymoon is starting to turn sour</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/read-spirit-airlines-open-letter-customers-bankruptcy-keep-flying-booking-2024-11">Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-blackwell-chip-ai-overheating-delay-share-price-2024-11">Nvidia's next-gen Blackwell GPU chip has reportedly hit an overheating snag.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-trump-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">Watch these 4 signs of re-inflation ahead of Trump's second administration.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1.24% to $67.75 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 1.25% to $71.93 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> increased 1.54% to $2,609.70 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 4.452%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> gained 0.22% to $90,072.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tech-heavy Nasdaq pushed higher by Tesla after Friday rout

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for signs of a potential peak in the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>The secular bull market, which began in 2009, is in a mature stage according to NDR's Tim Hayes.</li></ul>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> in its 15th year of a secular bull market that started in 2009, Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for warning signs of a potential peak.In a Friday note, NDR chief global investment strategist Tim Hayes said the secular bull rally is in its mature stage, so investors should keep an eye out for warning signs like sentiment extremes."What will warn that it's ending? The answer comes down to sentiment — so much positive news for so long that it has become the new normal," Hayes said.He added: "The risk is that the lack of risk aversion would leave investors exposed to a degree of sustained macro deterioration yet to be experienced since the bull got underway."Hayes isn't calling for an imminent peak in the stock market, especially with falling interest rates historically acting as a tailwind for stock prices, but he's aware that it could happen."The last two secular bulls lasted 24 years (1942 - 1966) and 18 years (1982 - 2000). But with the secular bull mature, we're watching out for signs that it may be at risk," Hayes said.The first warning sign of a near-term peak in the stock market is worsening breadth among the underlying issues of the US stock market.In other words, if only a handful of companies drive the stock market higher, that would be a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-broadens-small-caps-another-win-for-bulls-2024-7">bad sign,</a> as it was at the secular top in 2000.Investors don't have to worry about that signal flashing just yet, with recent data showing a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rare-bull-signal-perfect-track-record-just-flashed-stock-market-2024-9">surge in market breadth.</a>Extreme valuations would be another warning sign to watch for, according to Hayes, who added that high valuations price in a perfect macro environment, and if something goes wrong, those valuations can fall apart rather quickly."Expensive valuations appear justified when earnings growth is coming through, but that also leaves the market vulnerable when earnings turn lower," Hayes said.Long-term peaks in the stock market also typically occur when earnings growth and economic growth hit extreme levels, as the other side of that boom is typically a swift deceleration in growth.The secular stock market peaks of 1929, 1966, and 2000 all coincided with a peak in S&amp;P 500 earnings growth, "after which prices dropped on the growing realization that the valuations were not justified," Hayes said.While valuations and earnings growth are currently at high levels, they could have more room to grow, according to the note."The current level of earnings growth has yet to reach its levels at the peaks in 1929 and 2000 but has already closed in on its levels of 1966," Hayes said.He added: "For a downturn in earnings growth, we would expect to see a downturn in economic growth."Finally, Hayes said investors should keep an eye on bond yields and commodities, as they will reflect a potential rebound in inflation. And a rebound in inflation, coupled with rising interest rates, would be an unwelcome warning sign for the current bull rally in stocks."If that would start to change with a severe cyclical bear, the secular bear warnings would strengthen, and we would be likely to see reversals from extremes in valuations, earnings growth, and economic performance," Hayes concluded.

Watch these warning signs for a potential peak in the stock market's long-term bull rally, NDR says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose as September's wholesale price data showed cooling inflation.</li><li>The producer price index was flat, and core PPI rose less than expected in September.</li></ul>US stocks edged higher on Friday after Producer Price Index data for September came in lower than expected, signaling a continued cooling of wholesale inflation.The producer price index was flat month-over-month, below economist estimates of a 0.1% rise. Meanwhile, Core PPI rose 0.1% in September, compared to an expected rise of 0.2%.TradeStation strategist David Russell told Business Insider the data supports another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve."CPI might have seemed hot, but PPI was not. Overall, these numbers are getting less impactful as inflation moderates. The Fed could still be on track for 25 basis points at the next two meetings. Yields have surged lately, but it's not clear they have much more reason for continued upside," Russell said.Investors are also digesting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-earnings-q3-jamie-dimon-economy-geopolitics-banking-wall-street-2024-10">earnings results from JPMorgan,</a> Wells Fargo, and BlackRock. All three stocks moved higher after the results, which beat analyst estimates on most fronts.JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon praised his bank's performance in the earnings release, but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-earnings-q3-jamie-dimon-economy-geopolitics-banking-wall-street-2024-10">warned that geopolitical conditions</a> are "treacherous and getting worse."Apart from earnings results, retail sales data, set to be released on October 17, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-retail-sales-no-landing-inflation-jobs-report-2024-10">is the next big data release for investors to watch.</a>Bank of America analysts expect September retail sales data to show a 0.8% surge, while consensus estimates expect just 0.2% growth.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,785.90, up 1.25% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,617.12, up 0.38% (+163 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,219.70, down 0.34% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-cybercar-analysts-self-driving-fleet-ai-2024-10">Tesla unveiled its robotaxi in an event Thursday night, but Wall Street isn't impressed.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-carmaker-chery-russia-sanctions-west-assets-seizure-volkswagen-mercedes-2024-10">A Chinese automaker has taken over Russian plants abandoned by Volkswagen and Mercedes.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-moscow-china-yuan-sanctions-bank-transactions-ruble-dollar-2024-10">Russia's ruble hit its lowest level in a year against the dollar and the yuan.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was down 0.69% to $75.33 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.69% to $78.85 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.97% to $2,664.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 3 basis points at 4.101%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was higher by 1.78% to $61,351.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks edge up after wholesale inflation comes in cool

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Traders are holding their breath ahead of key economic data and earnings.</li><li>Third-quarter GDP and the October jobs report will be important inputs for the Fed's easing cycle.</li></ul>Traders are bracing themselves ahead of a big week for the stock market.Investors will be watching key data releases, including third-quarter GDP, an inflation update from the personal consumption expenditures index, and the October jobs report for clues about the state of the economy heading into year-end.Importantly, the data points will be key inputs for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. If the economy stays hot, the Fed could slow or even pause its easing cycle and spark a recalibration in markets that causes fresh volatility for stocks.Meanwhile, five mega-cap tech firms worth a combined $12 trillion — Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet — will report third-quarter earnings this week.Here are the key inputs for markets to keep an eye on this week.<h3 id="2f700cd1-90d6-4434-aa02-c46b50633936">Mega-cap tech earnings</h3>Earnings season is peaking this week, with more than 90 S&amp;P 500 companies set to report including mega-cap giants <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Meta Platforms</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Microsoft</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/AAPL-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Amazon</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Alphabet</a>.Together, those five companies are worth around $12 trillion. Investors will watch the earnings reports closely, looking for signs of AI growth — and with it, signals that the tech bull run will continue into 2025.Alphabet reports on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday.For Meta, analysts expect strong growth amid a growing and stable core business. In a note last week, analysts at Bernstein said Meta is the new "set-it-and-forget-it" blue chip stock. The team raised their price target from $600 to $675 a share, representing potential upside of 16% from the price of the stock at midday on Monday. Apple has an especially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-announcing-major-mac-updates-ai-rollout-earnings-week-2024-10">big week ahead</a>. The iPhone maker reports on Thursday, and is also expected to unveil software and hardware updates this week, including access to highly-anticipated Apple Intelligence AI features with the iOS 18.1 update.The earnings report follows a note <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-stock-price-tumbles-analyst-says-iphone-16-orders-slashed-2024-10?_gl=1*14az43n*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDEyNTUzMi4zMjQuMS4xNzMwMTI3NTkyLjMxLjAuMA..">last Wednesday</a> from supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities that warned of weak demand for it's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-16-review?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">new iPhone 16 models</a>. The note said there's no sign yet that Apple's coming AI capabilities have boosted demand for its devices.Amazon will also report on Thursday. Deutsche Bank analysts expect strong results driven by operating income at the high end of guidance and higher operating income for next year.The analysts see several sources of upside, including faster growth of total ad revenue given strength in its Prime Video segment, operating expenses for Amazon Web Services that come in below expectations, and other operating expenses growing more slowly due to the company's focus on efficiency and scaling robotics benefits. In addition to the results themselves, investors will also be watching for clues about the strength of the AI trade. All of the tech giants reporting this week, with the exception of Apple, are among Nvidia's biggest customers. With Nvidia's earnings not for another month, the third-quarter results and executive commentary will be important gauges of demand from the so-called "hyperscalers" driving the bulk of GPU sales. Wedbush Securities analysts and tech bull Dan Ives described this week as the "world series for big tech." He predicts earnings results will come in strong, and send tech stocks higher into the end of the year."Investors need to see the monetization of AI spreading to the rest of the tech landscape and the next few weeks will be the linchpin to confirmation that the AI 'use case phase' have now begun within the enterprise world," Ives wrote in a note on Sunday. <h3 id="65129def-22db-4216-9a06-7e2b39b43d51">Third-quarter GDP and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge</h3>The flurry of key data releases starts with third-quarter GDP on Wednesday.Last week, stocks took a hit as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates-economy-inflation-election-labor-market-2024-10">the bond market sold off</a> based on expectations for interest rates to remain higher for longer due to a strong economy, cautious comments from Fed officials, and rising odds of another Donald Trump presidency, which is widely seen as an inflationary event given his promises of high tariffs.Depending on the data this week, there's renewed potential for the bond market to reprice and send shocks through the stock market as investors adjust rate expectations. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">Atlanta Fed</a>'s GDPNow Tracker expects 3.3% economic growth for the quarter, according to the tracker's most recent estimate on Friday. That's a high bar and would mark significant growth from last quarter's 3.0% growth.A hot economy is a hurdle to aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, and could cause markets to reprice expectations for interest rates through the rest of this year and into 2025. PCE is due Thursday and will be another input for the Fed as it nears its goal of 2% inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is expected to show prices rose 2.1% year-over-year in September, continuing its decline after coming in at 2.2% the prior month. <h3 id="a5a7e0dd-1db9-4744-802c-65cccec3afdd">The October jobs report</h3>After a blockbuster September jobs report, the stakes are high for October's jobs data on Friday. The data has become a double-edged sword for the market. If job growth remains high, that could reduce the need for more rate cuts. If the data is weaker than expected, that could prompt more rapid easing but also hint at a weakening economy.Economists expect the data to show 110,000 jobs were added last month, far fewer than the 245,000 added in September. JPMorgan analysts forecast a slightly more mild increase of 100,000 as recent storms and strikes weigh on job growth. That makes the report difficult to interpret, the analysts said. "A decline in the unemployment rate would likely increase chatter around a Fed 'skip' in November, but barring an unexpectedly and remarkably strong set of data next week, we think it would take more months of good data before that possibility gets onto the Fed's radar," the analysts said in a note. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets expect the Fed to deliver 25 basis-point cuts at the November and December meetings.

It's a make-or-break week for the stock market

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were slightly higher Friday, adding to records as investors processed the election and the Fed. </li><li>The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday and signaled more cuts ahead.</li></ul>US stocks rose on Friday as investors digested the postelection surge in major US indexes.Stocks are headed for the best week of 2024, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> on track for a 4% gain, while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> is up more than 5%.In addition to the swift outcome of the Presidential election on Tuesday, with President-elect Trump securing a second term in the White House, investors were met with another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell slashed the benchmark rate by 25 basis points on Thursday and signaled that there are likely more rate cuts ahead as long as inflation doesn't rebound."The key takeaway is the Fed continues to be dovish and this coupled with the positive seasonality, supports stocks into year-end," Fundstrat's Tom Lee said in a Friday note.According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, investors see a 68% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut at next month's Fed meeting. Also helping push stocks to record this week is solid earnings, with third-quarter results starting to wrap up.So far, 90% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported earnings results. According to Fundstrat data, 77% of those companies beat profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 59% beat revenue estimates by a median of 6%.Investors will turn their attention to inflation data next week, with the October Consumer Price Index set to be released on Wednesday and the October Producer Price Index set to be released on Thursday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: , 5,983.71 up, 0.18%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,788.96, up 0.14% (+59.62 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,290.78, up 0.11%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-replace-intel-dow-jones-industrial-average-2024-11">Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, replacing Intel and Dow, respectively.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">Here are mega-cap tech's winners and losers from Trump's election win, according to the stock market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">CEOs worldwide are already talking about the potential impact of tariffs on their businesses.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million on his Trump election bet, nearly double than originally thought.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 1.24% to $71.34 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 1.07% to $74.82 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> jumped 0.09% to $2,708.30 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield declined 2 basis points to 4.316%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> gained 0.30% to $76,150.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes edge up to head toward the best week of the year

<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kick off bank earnings on Friday.</li><li>Expect lots of questions about how lower rates will impact business going forward.</li></ul>When Wall Street's biggest banks report earnings this week, led by JPMorgan Chase, investors will be listening closely for clues about how a changing interest-rate environment could impact business in 2025.The Federal Reserve in September cut the so-called federal funds rate by 50 basis points — <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interest-rate-cut-ai-stocks-nvidia-broadcom-asml-tech-2024-9?_gl=1*1ax8rwf*_ga*MzQwMzI0MDQ1LjE3MjEzMDM4ODI.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ5MTE5OC4yOTAuMS4xNzI4NDkxMjEwLjQ4LjAuMA..">the central bank's first cut</a> in more than four years. The September 18 move took place too late to impact third-quarter results, but stock research analysts are expected to pepper executives this earnings season about what a lower interest-rate environment might mean for business going forward.Lower rates can be a mixed blessing for banks. On the one hand, the Fed's campaign to increase the cost of borrowing has contributed to an era of sky-high returns for traditional lenders like JPMorgan, which have been making more money on loans than they have been paying for deposits. But that party was never going to last forever. (Indeed, top JPMorgan exec <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/c11b59f6-4827-4c4e-9f24-2f075b85f665">Daniel Pinto warned last month</a> that stock analysts' so-called NII expectations were too high.)Plus, lower rates could help unleash <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2q-earnings-david-solomon-investment-banking-forecast-2024-7">the dealmaking backlog</a> that investment bankers have been talking about since the pandemic-era M&amp;A boom started to slow in 2022. Their bonuses are counting on it.Speaking of bonuses, third-quarter results will also be closely watched on Wall Street as an indication of how well investment bankers may get paid this year.JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will kick off earnings on Friday, followed by Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Bank of America on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley will report its earnings on Wednesday. Here are the top four things to look for this bank earnings season:<h2 id="629d7158-9393-4502-a5a4-b8a898b107c5">Investment banking</h2>Investment bankers have been predicting dealmaking will return since it started slowing in 2022. But this year, there are strong signs that companies are ready to start going public and merging again.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/megamergers-deals-m-a-wall-street-comeback-2024-9">Preliminary data compiled by LSEG</a> shows 425 mergers globally so far this year valued at more than $1 billion. That's up 24% from the same period in 2023. What's more, deals valued at greater than $10 billion were recently up 39% compared with the same period last year.The number of companies going public is also soaring. 106 US companies have gone public through the third quarter, raising a total of $24.7 billion, according to IPO tracker Renaissance Capital. That's up from 71 in 2022 and 108 in 2023 and on track to beat the $27 billion raised in those two years.Third-quarter results — and commentary about 4Q dealmaking so far — will be closely watched for further signs of progress in M&amp;A, equity underwriting, and debt underwriting.<h2 id="bf745d80-abee-4488-881c-e8551a17811c">Trading</h2>At the Barclays Financial Services conference in September, big bank executives warned that trading revenues may be muted compared to 2023.Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon described a "more challenging macro environment, particularly in the month of August," and warned that the bank's trading business "is trending down close to 10%." Solomon cited the bank's revenues for FICC, or fixed-income, currencies and commodities, saying that results were "very, very strong" in the third quarter of 2023.At the same conference, JPMorgan's president and chief operating officer, Daniel Pinto, predicted that trading revenues would be "flat to slightly up 2%." "It was a bit more challenging environment to monetize client flows, particularly in rates," he said.<h2 id="723af9a4-99cc-49fd-b909-2fc736985cbb">Lending</h2>Stock analysts will be watching what banks say about net interest income, which is how much banks earn off the difference between what they pay on deposits and what they earn on loans. When the Fed started raising rates, banks were making out like bandits because they were able to charge more for loans more quickly than they were raising rates on savings accounts.But banks have been warning that this dichotomy wouldn't last forever, and loan growth has indeed been slowing as the economy slows. Lower rates could boost lending yet again, but that could take time. In the meantime, JPMorgan's Pinto in September warned that Wall Street stock analysts' 2025 predictions for NII of between $91.5 billion and $90 billion were too high, sending the bank's stock down."I think that that number will be lower," Pinto said at the Barclays Financial Services conference. "We are not going to guide on that now, but the $90 billion is a bit too high."<h2 id="b126e3af-7e38-4ed0-b6d7-4e67905737f9">Bonuses</h2>Banks tend not to talk about bonuses on earnings calls, but how bankers will be paid will be reflected in C-Suite comments about dealing and trading generally — as well as their predictions for the rest of 2024 and into next year.In good news, compensation expert Johnson Associates sees bonuses up this year across the board, an analysis that's reflective in part of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2024/10/dinapoli-wall-streets-2024-first-half-profits-232b-were-793-higher-last-year">Wall Street's earnings results</a> so far this year. See here for the compensation expert's views on bonuses for debt underwriting, equity underwriting, sales and trading, and more.<div type="image" title="Wall Street bonus predictions" height="630" width="1950" msid="114096916" hostid="261" sizebytes="88820"></div>

4 trends to watch this bank earnings season

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nvidia stock surged over 3% to near-record highs on Monday as excitement builds for its Blackwell GPU.</li><li>The Blackwell GPU's pricing of about $500,000 has eased concerns about Nvidia's margins.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a> stock jumped more than 3% on Monday to near-record highs as investor excitement around the chipmaker's upcoming Blackwell GPU product cycle grows.Shares of Nvidia hit an intra-day high of $139.41, less than 1% below the all-time high price of $140.76, which was reached in mid-June.The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of about 35x, which is below its three-year and five-year averages, suggesting that the stock isn't grossly overvalued, according to Citi.Monday's gain came amid a wave of Wall Street research reports on Nvidia, along with pricing details for Nvidia's next-generation GPU chip.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://wccftech.com/nvidia-blackwell-dgx-b200-price-half-a-million-dollars-top-of-the-line-ai-hardware/#:~:text=NVIDIA's%20DGX%20B200%20%22Blackwell%22%20AI,a%20rather%20astonishing%20price%20tag.">initial list prices</a> for Nvidia's Blackwell GPU chip were around $500,000, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wfc-stock">Wells Fargo</a> called an "incremental positive" in a note on Monday."We do think the 40%+ higher pricing of the DGX B200 vs DGX H100 systems could be considered higher than expectations," Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers said, adding that the pricing should ease investor concerns about Nvidia's gross margin dynamics.The release of Nvidia's next-generation AI-enabling GPU chip comes at a time when cloud hyperscalers, including <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock">Amazon</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a>, are in an "AI arms race," according to Bank of America."Capex estimates continued to rise: since March, for every $1 of upward revision in 2024 sales estimates for hyperscalers, there was $19 of upward revision in capex estimates," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bac-stock">Bank of America</a> said in a Monday note.In a note on Friday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs</a> increased its Nvidia price target to $150 from $135, arguing that the company's competitive moat is only getting stronger.Nvidia's competitive moat is centered on its large installed base, "which, in turn, fuels the virtuous positive cycle that entails more developers," Goldman Sachs said.Additionally, Nvidia's "ability to innovate not just at the chip level but at the data center level" is a competitive advantage for the company, along with its "robust and growing software offerings," Goldman Sachs said.And as for the potential looming competition from custom silicon chips being developed internally by Nvidia's largest customers, known as ASICS, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/c-stock">Citi</a> isn't too worried about them."Nvidia still king," Citi said in its note on Monday."Due to the limitations in the hardware use cases, building custom silicon may be only suited for large hyperscalers. That nevertheless does not take away from the need for GPUs in both training and inference as GPUs remain at the forefront of performance benchmarks and offer the ability to grow one's AI infrastructure at scale," Citi said.Investors will be closely watching Nvidia's upcoming third-quarter earnings release in late November for clues about the progress of its Blackwell chip launch.

Nvidia stock tests record highs as Wall Street defends chipmaker's valuation amid 'AI arms race'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! Mondays are probably the best day to start eating healthier. (Can't start a diet on a Friday.) And whatever your goals are, protein will play a key role. A nutrition coach breaks down <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/easy-calculate-how-much-protein-coach-olympians-2024-9">how to figure out how much you need</a>.In today's big story, the stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">So now what</a>?What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Jamie Dimon's retirement <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">doesn't mean his exit from JPMorgan</a>.</li><li>Tech: Roblox investors are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">shrugging off a short-seller's report</a>.</li><li>Business: It's the first day of work for Nike's new CEO. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">Here's what's at stake</a>.</li></ul>But first, time flies when you're making money.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Bullish on the bull market</h2><div type="image" title="Wall Street bull statue" height="4024" width="6048" msid="114217361" hostid="261" sizebytes="1697474"></div>Happy belated birthday to the stock market's bull rally!In case you missed it, Saturday marked two years since stocks bottomed out before going on a run. The Nasdaq 100 (88%), S&amp;P 500 (62%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (46%) have posted strong returns in the two years since.But don't worry about missing the celebration, because the party might be going on for a while. Stock market experts who spoke with Business Insider's Matthew Fox <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">don't see things slowing down anytime soon</a>.In fact, the average bull market lasts longer than five years, so we might not even be halfway to the finish line. There's no consensus on exactly how the next few years will shape up, but the experts agree they don't see a market downturn in the near future.Earnings season, which is in full swing this week, will provide more color on where things are headed. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10">Expectations are high</a>, and for good reason. The S&amp;P 500 has enjoyed year-over-year earnings growth for four consecutive quarters.<div type="image" title="inflation dollar hovers over groceries" height="893" width="1786" msid="114217363" hostid="261" sizebytes="43390"></div>So, what's the case for the bull rally to continue?Past performance does not guarantee future results, so bull runs' history of sticking around doesn't mean this one will.But the first thing to consider is this bull market's resiliency.The past two years have seen multiple banks fail, a bond-market meltdown, and the unwinding of a trade tied to the Japanese yen that sent stocks tumbling. Interest rates also remained elevated as the economy battled high inflation.Beyond the financial markets, things haven't been much calmer. The war in Ukraine rages on, and there's arguably more violence in the Middle East than there has been in decades.Meanwhile, the run-up to the presidential election has been unprecedented. The sitting president shockingly ended his reelection campaign, and another candidate faced multiple assassination attempts.So yes, we've been through a lot, and stocks keep going up and to the right.While I can't guarantee things will calm down, there are some bright spots. There might not be more rate cuts this year, but the job market is strong and inflation is (mostly) under control. Whether we're in a soft landing or a "no landing," both situations are better than a recession, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-recession-outlook-prediction-labor-market-job-additions-interest-rates-2024-10">which seems unlikely at this point</a>.The actual stock market is healthier, too, as it's no longer reliant on the Magnificent Seven's performance. Instead, it's enjoying growth across different sectors, which gives it more immunity from industry-specific shocks.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>SpaceX's Starship <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-starship-fifth-flight-test-how-to-watch-2024-10">completes historic 5th flight test</a>.</li><li>'Let chaos reign': <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-players-startups-ai-inference-driving-prices-down-cheap-workload-2024-10">AI computing costs are about to plummet</a>.</li><li>The professor made porn. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/professor-porn-fired-salacious-free-speech-academic-freedom-2024-10">His firing may shape the future of free speech</a>.</li><li>Elon Musk says <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-launches-california-coastal-commission-2024-10">he will take legal action</a> after California officials cited his politics when rejecting SpaceX launches.</li><li>How Saudi Arabia could create <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-supply-opec-cuts-2024-10">a crisis for Russia's economy</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Jamie Dimon" height="500" width="1000" msid="114217365" hostid="261" sizebytes="20910"></div><ol><li>You can't get rid of Jamie Dimon that easily. The JPMorgan CEO has hinted at plans to step down in the not-so-distant future. But during the bank's earnings call, he also said there is an "almost nil" chance of him joining the next presidential administration as he plans to stay at JPMorgan "for a long period." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">Here's how both things can be true</a>.</li><li>Ken Griffin knows who he's voting for, and he's not happy about it. The billionaire hedge fund manager and Republican megadonor hasn't supported either presidential candidate. The Citadel CEO said he knows who he is voting for, but "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citadel-ken-griffin-election-taxes-florida-2024-10">it's not with a smile on my face</a>."</li><li>BlackRock wants to make alt investments not so alternative. The $11.5 trillion asset manager <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrocks-next-big-bet-private-markets-2024-10">hopes to grow its private markets business</a>, which includes less liquid, more expensive investments with the potential for higher returns. It comes after securing $221 billion in net inflows last quarter, a company record.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Augustus Doricko sits in a desk with a huge American flag on the back wall." height="3739" width="4985" msid="114217359" hostid="261" sizebytes="612242"></div><ol><li>The 24-year-old wunderkind trying to make water out of thin air. With his new company, cloud-seeding startup Rainmaker, <a target="_blank" href="http://businessinsider.com/rainmaker-augustus-doricko-cloud-seeding-el-segundo-2024-10">Augustus Doricko has launched a God-fearing, cigarette-loving tech hub</a> in El Segundo, California. "Respect to Zuck, but I certainly hope the next cohort of people that build great things do it in the real world," Doricko told BI.</li><li>Roblox took an L and bounced back. The gaming platform's stock tumbled after a prominent short-seller accused it of inflating user numbers and failing to protect children from predators. Investors appear undeterred; after the drop, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">Roblox's stock rebounded</a>, with Wall Street focused on its growth potential.</li><li>Twelve AI coding startups to watch. AI coding startups are having a moment as VCs look to invest in tools that automate the boring parts of coding and let developers focus on more creative tasks. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-code-startups-that-have-raised-the-most-vcs-a16z-2024-10">These 12 startups have attracted funding</a> from VCs like a16z and Menlo Ventures.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of expensive Erewhon groceries, receipt, shopping cart, and payment system" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114217368" hostid="261" sizebytes="117578"></div><ol><li>I've been a very brave Gen Zer. I'd like a treat. Inflation's got nothing on Gen Z's love of bougie snacks: Young people splurge on expensive groceries more than any other generation. The reason? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-loves-expensive-groceries-snacks-erewhon-whole-foods-2024-10">Consuming health-conscious food is a show of economic power</a> — and everything else is too expensive.</li><li>Office vacancy may deliver some housing relief. The office sector will experience a wave of distress in coming years, real estate experts told BI. That might be good news for housing supply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-office-outlook-fire-sales-apartment-conversions-housing-2024-10">as former offices get converted to apartments</a>.</li><li>It's Elliott Hill's first day as Nike's CEO. Can he just do it? Nike released its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report on October 1, and revenue declined 10% from the previous year to $11.6 billion. Now, it's up to Hill <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">to lead a full-scale comeback for the brand</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>How rich Americans can save on taxes by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/upstream-planning-transfers-capital-gains-tax-stock-real-estate-2024-10">giving stock and real estate to their parents</a>.</li><li>Tesla investors don't seem to trust Elon Musk like they used to. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-twitter-wall-street-disappointment-self-driving-taxi-2024-10">Is that because of Twitter</a>?</li><li>Here's how natural disasters are shaping the buy-versus-rent decision <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-natural-disasters-buy-rent-florida-climate-change-risks-2024-10">in vulnerable states like Florida</a>.</li><li>Warren Buffett's company website looks like a relic from the 1990s — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-website-homepage-culture-values-billionaires-links-2024-10">but that's on purpose</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>It's Columbus Day in the US. In some states, like New York, it's a day to celebrate Italian American culture and history.</li><li>It's also Indigenous People's Day, which some states recognize instead of, or in addition to, Columbus Day. Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia mark this holiday.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

The stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. So now what?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes fell Thursday before Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for September.</li><li>Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate.</li></ul>Markets closed lower on Thursday amid rising fears over spiraling Middle East tensions and as traders prepared to digest the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday morning.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 200 points, while the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq both stumbled. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year bond yield up seven basis points to 3.855%.The decline was fueled by further fears of escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.In remarks to reporters, President Joe Biden was vague about the potential for retaliatory strikes by Israel against Iran, but suggested it's a possibility.The world has been on edge after Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on Tuesday, retaliating for Israel's killing of the Hezbollah leader.Biden's comments pushed crude prices higher. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86.If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10?_gl=1*1nljk35*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk4MjI3MS4yMjIuMS4xNzI3OTg0NzQyLjMuMC4w">surge 161%</a> to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.Weekly jobless claims on Thursday came in at 225,000, an increase of 6,000 from the week before, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Economists had expected an increase of just 2,000.Investors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. The report is expected to show the unemployment rate staying flat at 4.2%, and an increase of 150,000 jobs in September, more than the 142,000 increase from August.The data will be a key indicator on the health of the labor market as the Federal Reserve makes its next rate-cut decision after its jumbo 50 basis point rate cut last month.Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,699.97, down 0.17%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,011.59, down 0.44% (184.93 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,918.47, down 0.04%</li></ul>Here's what else was going on Thursday:<ul><li>Why China's massive stimulus effort <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-monetary-stimulus-package-xi-jinping-beijing-interest-rates-2024-10">might not have any effect until next year</a>.</li><li>Costco is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/costco-starts-selling-platinum-bars-gold-silver-retail-success-2024-10?_gl=1*1v69c35*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk4MjI3MS4yMjIuMS4xNzI3OTg0ODU2LjE0LjAuMA..">selling platinum bars</a> as it expands its precious-metals business after huge success selling gold</li><li>Nvidia <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-jensen-huang-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-2024-10?_gl=1*1knr2l0*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk4MjI3MS4yMjIuMS4xNzI3OTg0ODc2LjU5LjAuMA..">stock jumps</a> after CEO Jensen Huang says "demand for Blackwell is insane"</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures rose. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose 5.3% to $77.86.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was up 0.3% $2,678 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up seven basis points to 3.855%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was up 1.2% to $61,075.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes fall, oil surges on Middle East turmoil ahead of jobs report     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes edged lower Thursday as investors assessed jobless claims and geopolitical tensions.</li><li>Jobless claims climbed to 225,000, surpassing forecasts of around 221,000.</li></ul>US stocks inched lower on Thursday, fueled by an uptick in jobless claims ahead of a key jobs report and continued tensions in the Middle East. Weekly jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 225,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.That surpassed forecasts of around 221,000, but weekly claims remain low, with the four-week moving average falling to its lowest since June.Investors are also focused on simmering geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which triggered a sell-off Tuesday and early on Wednesday following a missile attack by Iran against Israel. Oil prices have spiked this week as investors fear disruption to supply if Israel retaliates by striking Iran's oil facilities. On Friday, investors will be closely watching the September jobs report, which is expected to show the unemployment rate staying flat at 4.2%. Forecasters see an increase of 150,000 jobs in September, ahead of August's figure of 142,000. The data will be a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's next rate cut decision after its jumbo 50-basis-point-rate cut last month. Markets are currently pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller, 25-basis-point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Analysts say the report will likely have a big influence on both markets and the Fed in the coming weeks."We think a soft employment report is likely to generate a larger market response vs a strong labor report," Bank of America analysts said in a Wednesday report."We think the market is likely to focus most on labor data in the weeks ahead but must acknowledge inflation data could also support another 50bp cut in Nov," they added.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 930 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,694.76, down 0.26% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,048.11, down 0.35% (-148.41 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,877.91, down 0.29%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li>Two sectors of the stock market are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-trump-win-election-financials-energy-rbc-2024-10">poised to benefit most</a> if Trump wins in November, according to RBC. </li><li>OpenAI will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chatgpt-stock-sale-artificial-intelligence-fundraising-valuation-sam-altman-2024-10">let employees sell some stock</a> after its monster fundraising round.</li><li>Stocks face a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-market-outlook-pullback-manufacturing-pmi-lei-recession-consumers-labor-2024-10?_gl=1*7dongh*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk1OTg4Mi4yMTguMS4xNzI3OTYwNjc3LjQyLjAuMA..">10% drop</a> with key economic data mired in recession territory, Verdence's CIO says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures rose. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a> rose 2.5% to $71.88 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 2.3% to $75.62 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was nearly flat at $2,668 an ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 3.813%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> inched lower to $60,438. </li></ul>

Stock markets today: Indexes slip as jobless claims rise ahead of highly anticipated jobs report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors worried about a market correction should adjust their portfolios, David Rosenberg says.</li><li>The top economist has warned stocks are in a bubble and at risk of a major decline.</li></ul>A number of Wall Street forecasters have been warning of a stock bubble as the market climbs to a series of fresh highs in 2024 — and investors worried about such a scenario should be putting their money in a handful of assets to protect themselves from the eventual bursting.That's according to David Rosenberg, a top economist and the founder of Rosenberg Research, who's been warning of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-outlook-prediction-strategy-to-invest-david-rosenberg-2024-3">potential craash in stocks</a> for months. In the past, he's warned of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-outlook-prediction-strategy-to-invest-david-rosenberg-2024-3">39% correction to stocks</a>, among the more extreme predictions on Wall Street, where most investors are feeling optimistic about a soft landing amid a robust economy and easing interest rates. "Watching the market these days is like watching a clown blowing up a balloon (or Chuck Prince dancing the ballroom), knowing the inevitable," Rosenberg said in a note to clients on Friday. "When this mega-bubble pops, it will be spectacular."Investors need to exercise caution and avoid following the "herd mentality," Rosenberg said, pointing to the fervor for mega-cap tech stocks. Instead, he said, investors should focus on stocks with strong business models, strong growth, and good prices, and add some "insurance" to their portfolios.Below are his top investment ideas for to prepare for the potential bursting of a market bubble. Healthcare and consumer staplesInvestors should gear their investments towards what people will always need in the future. In particular, Rosenberg recommended that investors pay attention to options in the healtcare and consumer staples sectors."Focus on where people are going to focus on what they need, not what they want," Rosenberg wrote. "Anything related to e- commerce, cloud services, and wiring up your home to become your new office has been in a budding secular growth phase."Utilities<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-stocks-to-invest-artificial-intelligence-data-center-energy-companies-2024-6">Utility stocks</a> also look promising. Other forecasters have predicted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/energy-stocks-to-buy-utility-artificial-intelligence-data-center-bofa-2024-9">huge upside for utility firms</a>, due to the growing need for power and data centers stemming from the AI boom."Utilities, as we have been saying for a long time, are as close to a 'no brainer' as there is, given their yield attributes and their being re-rated for 'defensive growth' owing to enhanced earnings visibility through the strong and secular outlook for US power needs," Rosenberg said.Aerospace, DefenseAerospace and defense stocks could also be a buy, he added, given rising geopolitical tensions around the world."Aerospace/defense has been a long-standing bull call for us for several years, and the best hedge against an increasingly troubled world where military budgets are expanding everywhere — and not at all sensitive to who comes to power on November 5th."Big techWhile some areas of tech are exhibiting bubble characteristics, investors could still seize on opportunities in some large-cap tech names, given the prevalence of work-from-home, cloud services, and remote work, Rosenberg said. Still, investors should wait to scoop up tech names at better prices, he said."I'd prefer to pick these plays up at better prices than we have today because this last melt-up has eaten enough into future expected returns to keep us cautious for now. But we would be an avid buyer on any significant pullback."Safe betsInvestors should look to put a "dose of insurance" in their portfolios. That means gold — the "truest store of value," Rosenberg says, — as well as government bonds."The beautiful thing about gold is that it is not a liability that a central bank can simply have forgiven or a currency that can simply be printed by government fiat," he said of the precious metal. "I also favor the Treasury market because it commands just about the highest yield of any major industrial country – and with the great liquidity attributes."Real estate investment trusts could also be good ways to hedge risk, Rosenberg said. That particularly applies to REITs tied to the industrial and healthcare sectors. "In any event, we all have to become increasingly thematic and thoughtful in our decision-making and more selective than normal because the stock market, and financial assets in general, have become nothing more than a momentum casino," he added.Most forecasters on Wall Street still expect a strong performance from equities into year-end and 2025. Goldman Sachs, UBS, BMO, and Deutsche Bank have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">raised their year-end price targets</a> for the S&amp;P 500 in recent weeks, with new forecasts ranging from 5,750 to 6,400.

Here's where investors worried about a stock market bubble should put their money, according to a top economist

<ul class="summary-list"><li>PepsiCo and major banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will kick off earnings season next week.</li><li>Investors expect S&amp;P 500 earnings growth of 4.6% as the stock market trades near record highs.</li></ul>Earnings season is fast approaching, and investors have a lot to be on the lookout for as companies report third-quarter results. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pep-stock">PepsiCo</a> will kick off the flurry of reports this Tuesday, followed by earnings from major banks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wfc-stock">Wells Fargo</a> on Friday.With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> gaining 5% in the third quarter and trading near record highs, companies have a lot to prove."Given the growth expectations already baked into the market of course we aren't going to want to see any weakness there," Horizon Investments head of research Michael Dickson told Business Insider."We'll need to see EPS expectations exceeded by high single digits in the aggregate to keep the strong year going in my view," he added. According to data from FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect the S&amp;P 500 to see year-over-year earnings growth of 4.6%, which would mark the fifth consecutive quarter of growth.The bottoms-up earnings per share estimate for all companies within the S&amp;P 500 is $60.82 in the third quarter, according to FactSet.Tom Hainlin, an investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management, told Business Insider that third-quarter earnings results will need to show signs of "waning inflation, moderating interest rates, and stable 2025 earnings projections" to support higher stock prices into year-end.In addition to the actual earnings figures, investors will be monitoring key themes as company executives offer guidance during earnings calls.Here are the big things Wall Street will be watching for. <h2 id="6ea1435c-35de-4b91-a190-e931a5d9858d">AI adoption</h2>There is growing concern that the massive investments being made in AI infrastructure <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-impact-overblown-investment-tech-stocks-billions-daron-acemoglu-mit-2024-10">won't actually pay off in the form of higher revenues and profits.</a>"There's almost like a prisoner's dilemma in the market right now, and companies are feeling like they're being forced to invest hand over fist in AI technology, despite lack of revenues being generated," Gabelli Funds managing director John Belton told Business Insider.If tech companies signal that they're cutting spending on AI investments, it could lead to a major unwinding of the current tech boom, so investors will be looking for clues as to how companies are progressing in monetizing their AI investments.There's also the question of sectors other than tech where AI may be having an impact. "A big driver of future growth is going to hinge on how the applications of AI will be broadening out into other sectors such as Healthcare, Industrials, and Aerospace and Defense. These are sectors that are most likely to be phase two beneficiaries of this crucial technology beyond chip makers and data centers," Horizon Investments' Dickson said.<h2 id="ac3f2d29-9ffa-4a02-8886-d18e86e36f86">Consumer health</h2>After <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ally-financial-stock-price-plunges-cfo-says-consumer-pressures-intensifying-2024-9">a worrying update from lending giant</a> Ally Financial in September and fears of a spending slowdown as pandemic savings dry up, investors will be keenly focused on the strength of the consumer."It will be important to keep a close eye on what the banks say about credit delinquencies and loan quality, along with the retail-focused firms and what they see in consumer spending behavior. GDP-related data shows strong trends here but more timely and granular views will be in focus," Dickson said.Hainlin said he is encouraged by continued growth in consumer spending as credit card defaults "are within normal levels" and the holiday shopping season is right around the corner.But there are some warning signs."While travel remains strong, overall experiences spending appears to have plateaued with consumers redirecting or broadening spending in other sectors. Additionally, lower-income groups are exhibiting signs of financial stress and slowing overall spending," Hainlin said.Earnings guidance from banks, retailers, and consumer discretionary companies should offer the granular views that will help investors assess what to expect from the consumer heading into year-end and in 2025. <h2 id="14095169-d8ee-47c5-81bf-dd9fe87396b8">The impact of lower interest rates</h2>With the Federal Reserve delivering <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-fed-rate-cut-outlook-november-labor-market-2024-10">its first interest rate cut of the cycle at the end of last quarter,</a> investors will want to see if lower capital costs have trickled down into company results and/or their guidance.The spotlight will be on rate-sensitive sectors, like banks and utilities, as well as smaller-sized companies which tend to carry more debt, according to Dickson."It will be key to see how mid and small-cap companies respond to falling rates that we've seen over the third quarter. These firms were hurt a lot on a relative basis so if they discuss a meaningful reduction in debt service pressures that would be bullish for a broadening out in those smaller cap names," Dickson said.Lower interest rates also have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/mortgages/average-mortgage-interest-rate">an outsized impact on the housing market,</a> and homebuilders can offer solid guidance on what they're seeing in that market."Lower mortgage rates are breathing some life back into the housing market, evidenced by a ramp up in weekly mortgage applications by almost 50% since the end of July, to the highest point since mid-2022," Hainlin said.He added: "Lower mortgage rates should push up housing demand, bring some additional inventory online, and provide a modest boost to home sales and housing-related consumer spending."

The 3 biggest themes investors are watching for as earnings season kicks off

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market faces pullback of up to 10%, Verdence's CIO told Yahoo Finance.</li><li>Key data prints are hovering in recession territory, Megan Horneman said.</li></ul>Investors are too quick to embrace soft-landing projections and are ignoring economic points of distress, Verdence's Megan Horneman said.This over-enthusiasm could cost the market heavily, pushing stocks toward a 7% to 10% drop, the chief investment officer said."I think investors got a little ahead of themselves as far as the what strength there is in the economy," she told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX0i_FfJ0zs">Yahoo Finance</a>. "If you look at every other economic indicator, aside from the actual GDP number, all of these things are looking like they're in a recession territory."Horneman's cited examples included the Leading Economic Indicators index and manufacturing. This week's service index is also worth monitoring, she said.To her point, the LEI gauge has persistently signaled headwinds ahead. Between February and August, it dropped 2.3%. According to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2024#:~:text=August's%20decline%20in%20the%20US,is%20likely%20imminent%20or%20underway.">Conference Board</a>, the decline in the six-month growth rate was enough to trigger a recession in August.Meanwhile, manufacturing can't seem to break out of its downturn. This week, September's Manufacturing PMI print remained stuck at 47.2 — any reading below 50 signals a contraction. This has been the case for six consecutive months and for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-47-2-september-2024-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-302263093.html">22 out of the past 23 months</a>."Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy — which the US Federal Reserve addressed by the time of this report — and election uncertainty," Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-47-2-september-2024-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-302263093.html">report</a>.Still, these data prints have taken a backseat to labor data, which holds the spotlight on Wall Street. Since rising job market deterioration played a key role in the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, investors are on the watch for any further weakness.The market is keen to see strength in September's jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday.Investors should prepare for a sell-off if unemployment jumps above 4.3% and non-farm payrolls slip under 100,000, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/best-case-scenario-for-stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-ms-2024-9?_gl=1*jge94d*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzg5MjE0OC42ODAuMC4xNzI3ODkyMTUzLjU1LjAuMA..">Morgan Stanley</a>.Horneman also noted waning consumer sentiment to drive home her point. With credit card debt on the rise, she questioned how spending is supposed to keep up."If you look at some surveys, most Americans actually think are already in a recession. That's how poorly they feel," she said. "So I just don't see the strength in the consumer that's going to be able to last much longer."According to a survey from July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-outlook-inflation-costs-consumer-spending-affirm-soft-landing-2024-7">three in five Americans</a> believe the US is in a recession. Top reasons included inflation and rising costs of living.

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