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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Major Wall Street analysts are warning of more headwinds for Chinese stocks next year, even amid stimulus.</li><li>After an initially positive reaction, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are turning more bearish.</li></ul>China's stock market is likely headed for tougher times ahead, at least according to a few prominent Wall Street firms.Strategists from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently cut their outlooks, warning of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-consumer-spending-demand-real-estate-debt-crisis-2024-8#:~:text=The%20world's%20second%2Dlargest%20economy,%2C%20falling%20short%20of%203.9%25.">slowing growth</a>, even as China's top leaders continue to unveil stimulus measures meant to reinvigorate its slowing economy.Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2025 target on the MSCI China Index from 84 to 75, keeping its overweight rating on the stocks but citing potential for lower earnings growth as a result of US tariffs. The index traded at roughly 64 on Monday.Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, has a target of 63 by the end of next year. The firm had taken away its underweight rating on the index back in October, pointing to a better policy outlook.The shifting outlook comes as the country has rolled out stimulus measures to address persistent economic challenges like its slumping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-outlook-home-prices-slumped-beijing-property-crisis-real-estate-2024-4">property market</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-household-deposits-savings-luxury-consumer-demand-slowdown-economy-outlook-2024-7">weak consumer sentiment</a>.The analysts had initially seemed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">optimistic</a> after the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">first round of stimulus</a> announced in September. Both firms upgraded their ratings on Chinese stocks in the weeks after, with Goldman Sachs analysts upgrading their stance to overweight, while the Morgan Stanley strategists changed their rating from underweight to neutral.Traders took note. The MSCI China Index hit its highest in over two years at the end of September, but in the time since, the index has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10">now fallen</a> some 15% as analysts wonder how much more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-li-qiang-fiscal-stimulus-market-sentiment-us-election-2024-11">stimulus</a> is left."We see a low limited chance that China's government will front-load enough fiscal stimulus to target consumption and housing in 2025 due to concerns over moral hazard and a premature transition into a 'welfare state,'" Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a Sunday note, adding, "We expect even stronger headwinds on corporate earnings and market valuation in the coming months."The analysts are also pricing in tariff risks from Donald Trump's US election win. Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs, including steep 60% duties on Chinese goods. They acknowledge, though, that with the actual extent of the tariffs yet to be finalized, there is still a great deal of uncertainty."The magnitude, profile, timing of the tariffs, and the resulting policy reactions from China make the situation more fluid and difficult to analyze," the Goldman analysts wrote."The only certainty is that it will be the overarching theme driving market volatility in the months ahead, and investors will monitor the tariff developments closely to dynamically adjust their views on the market," they added.

Wall Street is cutting outlooks for Chinese stocks just weeks after a stimulus blitz

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's victory over Harris raises questions about Republican control of the House.</li><li>Wall Street strategists are closely monitoring financial markets and potential policy impacts.</li></ul>It's fair to say that much of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-post-election-results-bullish-trump-trade-peter-tuchman-2024-11">Wall Street didn't get enough sleep</a> on election night after being caught off guard by the speed at which results began coming in.Dominic Pappalardo, the chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, was home watching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/polymarket-prediction-betting-markets-vindicated-by-trumps-strong-showing-1033958821">prediction markets</a> and how percentages were skewing state by state. He was also keeping an eye on financial markets to see if they were making directional moves.Over in London, Richard Kelly, the head of global strategy at TD Securities, was on his firm's trading floor, busy answering endless client questions on 'What about this' and 'What about that'-type scenarios."As much as we all tried to think ahead of what the different policies would be, there are always a lot more questions that come up on the day, and they all have to be much more concrete," Kelly said. "So it's just been a whirlwind."Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">Donald Trump's victory</a> over Vice President Kamala Harris has been called for Tuesday's election, but Wall Street is still waiting on one more key answer: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-balance-of-power-results-competitive-republicans-democrats-2024-11">Will Republicans take the House</a>, too? It seems increasingly likely. Yet, the result would be based on a handful of seats."Technically, we don't need to know until the first half of December legally, and these things are so close in terms of the margin of error," Kelly said. "There's some of these races where literally hundreds of ballots is the differential of Republican versus Democrat. So it's not going to be today."The small tilt in the House makes a big difference because a handful of seats are enough to create some friction on Trump policies, Kelly noted.<h2 id="e4827f7a-5ee5-4a62-aa3b-da6a8ce8b3ef">Stocks</h2>Sector rotations among stocks are slightly muddy because the overall <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11">market is up so much that everything rallied</a> with the broad market, Pappalardo said. But one noteworthy sector is financials, which performed better than the overall market into Wednesday's early trading hours. It's unsurprising since the Republicans campaigned on policies favorable to banks and financial stocks, including decreased regulation. The steepening yield curve is also positive for banks as it boosts their profit margins since they borrow on the front-end yield and lend at the back-end yield, he added.Technology is another sector the market is viewing favorably: Tech companies have been creating a lot of profit, so Trump's promised corporate tax cuts will be quite beneficial, Pappalardo said.Meanwhile, the utilities sector lagged the broader market the most as we moved into Wednesday's early trading hours. Investors moving away from defensives toward cyclicals is likely a sign that investors believe the economy is positioned for growth, Pappalardo noted.While the rallies are positive for stocks, looking ahead, Pappalardo expects things to return to normality. In other words, investors will focus on traditional fundamentals like corporate earnings and interest rate policy.<h2 id="5e50dfbb-c80b-4dee-8272-69eff4f2145f">Bonds</h2>Wednesday was a long day for Gennadiy Goldberg, the head of US rates strategy at TD Securities. He stayed up past midnight watching the yield move before passing the baton off to his colleagues in London."Once the polls started to close, the market already started to move," Goldberg said. "It took the market very little time to start penciling in higher odds of the Trump victory."The swift and strong Republican win pushed the 10-year yield up from around 4.3% to around 4.45%.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-a-bond#:~:text=Bonds%20are%20loans%20that%20investors,the%20principal%20investment%20at%20maturity.">bond market</a> was expressing signs of nervousness. This sector of the market is worried about who's going to pay the bill for potentially higher budget deficits. The result is a pricing-in of higher debt premiums, Goldberg said.Additionally, aggressive immigration and tariff policies could be inflationary. And if it looks like inflation pressures are either reaccelerating or just stubbornly high, it could leave the Fed nervous about cutting rates further, Goldberg said.Kelly added that the 10-year could still move higher to 4.75%, and that's where he thinks the market could get more comfortable buying.<h2 id="b628f761-842f-464c-a039-7d296873c4e9">Currencies</h2>Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities, was at home in front of multiple screens until about 1 a.m. as she watched <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-forex">currencies move</a> amid the strong Trump lead. Initially, she expected the results to take a few days to become clear, but she was surprised by how quickly the outcome became evident. Currency markets also reacted swiftly against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar."The Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso, and the euro were hit particularly hard because once markets saw the election results being called, they had to start pricing in the threat of tariffs," Bharadwaj said.She expects the euro to trade even weaker relative to the dollar once Trump takes office. Right now, it's trading at $1.07; expect it to move to $1.05, she said. If the Republicans take the House, then the euro could drop below $1.05, she added.Kelly added that China has been under the microscope since Trump talked about 60% tariffs on its imports. Other countries could face 10% tariffs across the board. So, if you're highly leveraged to trade, like Europe or the UK, it could be very negative for the euro and pound. He noted that it could also be negative on the currencies of Canada and Mexico, depending on how USMCA members will be impacted.On the flip side, the yen could weaken less than other currencies relative to the US dollar. The Bank of Japan may return to rate hikes over the next few months after it had paused, Kelly said. This means watch out for further unwinding in the yen carry trade. Therefore, the next question investors have to ask is: how many long equity positions have been funded at very low Japanese rates, Kelly said.For this reason, Bharadwaj cautions traders about jumping back into any carry trades because there will be a lot of currency volatility.<h2 id="2b454727-3f51-473d-b815-35fcf1e90886">Gold</h2>One surprise is that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">gold hasn't weakened</a> as much as expected, Kelly said. As the dollar strengthened, he anticipated a more significant pullback. Given the uncertainty and volatility that took place the day after the elections, it might be too soon as investors digest results. However, he anticipates further weakening in gold, which is down 2% from Election Day.

Chief strategists project their outlooks on stocks, bonds, currencies, and gold amid a Trump victory 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders took inflation data and the outlook for rates.</li><li>Inflation rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, in-line with expectations.</li></ul>The latest inflation data dented some of the momentum of the post-election stock rally, with traders focusing on the latest consumer price index reading at its implications for rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up slightly, while the S&amp;P 500 ended the day nearly flat. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield up one basis point to 4.449%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">Inflation was slightly higher</a> year-over-year in October compared to the prior month, but was on par with economists' expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on an annual basis, higher than last month's 2.4% increase.Investors solidified bets on another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Markets see an 82% chance that the central bank will trim interest rates another quarter-point next month, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Traders are less certain about another rate cut in January. The odds of another 25 basis point cut at the Fed's January meeting have dropped to 29%, down from 69% a month ago."Inflation data mostly support another rate cut at the Fed's December decision," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will wait until they have more clarity about the timing and scope of policy changes from the next President and Congress before reacting to them.""The Fed wants to avoid the mistakes of the past by prematurely easing and risking a second wave of inflation, so we'd expect the FOMC to take this risk seriously," Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy &amp; research at Glenmede, said in a note. "This doesn't take a rate cut off the table for December, but it's certainly not a slam dunk."The rally fueled by Trump's election began to stumble, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edging slightly into the red.Crypto markets, though, continued to get a boost after Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, was appointed as co-head of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dogecoin-price-elon-musk-doge-department-trump-crypto-president-election-2024-11?_gl=1*j5rjww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUyNDI1NS41NTYuMS4xNzMxNTI0MjY2LjQ5LjAuMA..">Department of Government Efficiency</a>, or "DOGE." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/doge-usd">Dogecoin</a> spiked another 15% on the news, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">bitcoin</a> rose as much as 6% before paring its gains, surpassing the $90,000 threshold for the first time ever before dipping back below to about $88,000 later in the day. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,985.38, up 0.02%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,958.19, up 0.11% (+47.21 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,230.74, down 0.26%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's what people are betting in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-jake-paul-mike-tyson-bitcoin-trump-2024-11?_gl=1*4l4ww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxNTY1NS41NTUuMS4xNzMxNTE4NTU0LjU2LjAuMA..">prediction markets</a> now that the election is over.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-upside-blackwell-rubin-apple-iphone-moment-2024-11">Nvidia is approaching its iPhone moment</a> with its Blackwell chip, and the stock could soar another 25%, an analyst said. </li><li>Trump could push <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">US debt to levels</a> that can't be ignored within his first year in office, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.09% to $68.08 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.46% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.87% to $2,575.98 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up one basis point to 4.449%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slipped to $88,615.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks slumped Tuesday amid rising bond yields. </li><li>Investors are adjusting outlooks for interest rate cuts from the Fed. </li></ul>US stocks headed for their second losing session in a row, with major indexes slumping Tuesday morning amid a rise in bond yields. Investors were put off by a steep jump in the US 10-year Treasury yield, which surged 11 basis points on Monday. The key bond yield jumped above 4.2% for the first time since July. Though yields have since steadied at around 4.176%, the rise indicates that traders have pared back hopes for a steep easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. Commentary from Fed officials this week calling for "gradual" and "modest" cuts following a streak of hot economic data triggered investors to rethink their expectations.More commentary will come on Tuesday from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. Five other officials will speak throughout the week.Investors are also monitoring further earnings releases. Tesla is scheduled to post its third-quarter performance on Wednesday. Boeing is also due to report on Wednesday, while UPS will report results on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,829.63, down 0.42% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,789.86, down 0.33% (-141.74 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,491.77, down 0.26% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-wall-street-bull-bear-predictions-economy-inflation-2024-10?_gl=1*1q5ar1h*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTYwMTkwMC43NTIuMS4xNzI5NjAyODAzLjI5LjAuMA..">Wall Street is divided over the market's fate. Here are the bear and bull cases made by top banks.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-short-seller-block-wont-elon-musk-valuation-2024-10?_gl=1*yjx239*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTYwMTkwMC43NTIuMS4xNzI5NjAyNzcyLjYwLjAuMA..">Why famed short-seller Carson Block won't bet against Tesla</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-nvda-blackwell-demand-outlook-chips-ai-2024-10?_gl=1*pfaelr*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTYwMTkwMC43NTIuMS4xNzI5NjAyODY4LjU2LjAuMA..">Wall Street keeps raising its price target on Nvidia. Here's why bullishness endures.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-russia-gas-europe-sanctions-ukraine-war-gazprom-2024-10?_gl=1*1n0z5w2*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTYwMTkwMC43NTIuMS4xNzI5NjAyOTA2LjE4LjAuMA..">China is set to become Russia's biggest pipeline gas customer this year.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was up 0.98% to $71.25 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 0.74% to $74.84 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was higher by 0.49% to $2,752.30 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was essentially flat at 4.176%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> slid 0.82% to $67,078.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes slide and yields rise as rate-cut outlook dims

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes.</li><li>The release will offer more insight into what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy and inflation.</li></ul>US stocks were mixed early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which should give further guidance on the path of interest rates for the rest of the year. All three benchmark indexes traded slightly in the red, while bond yields were up slightly. Investors will be parsing through the Fed's latest meeting minutes later on Wednesday, which will give more insight into what central bankers are thinking about the economy and the trajectory of rate cuts this year and beyond. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year."The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating," Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. But expectations about the pace of easing may be set by the minutes."According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut."Even so, we still think the FOMC is putting undue emphasis on the current strength of the economy rather than the direction of travel and the lagged impact of earlier tightening still in the pipeline," economists at the research firm said in a note. "We expect a 25bp easing in November but think a soft run of jobs and activity data in Q4 and Q1 will soon have the Fed scrambling to avoid falling behind the curve."Central bankers will assess another jobs report and the September Consumer Price Index, which will be published Thursday morning, before making their next rate move. The inflation report will be a high-stakes data point for the Fed after the big September payroll report, with markets anxious that officials may have to turn their attention back to prices after pivoting to the labor market at their last meeting. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will issue a quarter-point cut, while odds of another jumbo-sized cut have been slashed completely, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Google parent Alphabet fell 1% in early trading as the US Department of Justice <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1052.0_1.pdf">indicated it could break up the tech giant</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,752.93, up 0.06% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,194.38, up 0.27% (+114 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,150.47, down 0.18%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">The economy is facing a "no-landing" scenario</a> that could take away some relief from higher interest rates.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">Fed rate cuts were expected to push mortgage rates lower</a>, but the opposite has happened.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">The bar for corporate earnings is low</a>. That's good news for stocks, as long as companies are feeling upbeat about rate cuts, according to Bank of America.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 2% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was fell 2% to $75.63 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.39% to $2,612.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was about flat at 4.041%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower 0.8% to trade at $61,930.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes rose Thursday to continue a post-election rally after the Fed cut interest rates.</li><li>The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, a smaller move compared to its September meeting. </li></ul>Indexes ended higher on Thursday, extending a post-election rally after the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut at the end of its latest policy meeting. The Nasdaq jumped 1.5% to a new record high, while the S&amp;P 500 climbed 0.8% to a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was nearly flat after surging by more than 1,500 points on Wednesday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,973.10, up 0.74% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,729.34</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,269.46, up 1.5%</li></ul>Major indexes gained as the Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut rates by 25 basis points</a>, which was widely expected after an initial jumbo 50 basis point cut in September.Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will continue to be data dependent, but that it is prepared to adjust its easing pace as necessary.Though some noted after the meeting that the Fed's tone may have sounded less confident about the path of inflation, noting "progress" has been made rather than the previous wording of "further progress," analysts were unconcerned."The Committee had used this language as a threshold to start cutting, so we interpret its removal as a reflection of the fact that the cutting cycle is already underway rather than as an indication of reduced confidence in the inflation outlook," analysts from Goldman Sachs said in a Thursday note.CPI data has been slightly sticky above the Fed's 2% target, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">latest report</a> showing inflation cooled in September but less than economists had expected.The labor market, on the other hand, appears to be a smaller source of stress for the Fed, but Powell said it's "prepared to adjust the pace and destination" of easing as the jobs data evolves."There seems to be less anxiety about the risk of rising unemployment and slowing job growth," Fitch Ratings chief economist Brian Coulton said in a Thursday note.The latest employment data, released Thursday, shows weekly jobless claims increased slightly to 221,000, a gain of 3,000 from the week before and in line with expectations.Investors seem hopeful Trump's light regulatory stance and proposals for corporate tax cuts will make for a more friendly business environment. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-trump-deregulation-tax-cuts-evercore-2024-11">Evercore ISI this week predicted</a> the S&amp;P 500 to jump 11% by next summer as the rally accelerates in Trump's second term. Powell said the election outcome will have "no effect" on the Fed's policy in the near future and reiterated that the Fed does not speculate on any administration's potential impact on the economy.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11?miRedirects=1">The Polymarket "whale" made a lot more</a> than previously thought betting on Trump to win. </li><li>Stocks are entering "Crazy Town" as valuations near generational highs. </li><li>Stocks tied to Russia rally as Trump's win <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-stocks-trump-win-ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-2024-11?_gl=1*7o1w4e*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAxMTE0MC4zNzguMS4xNzMxMDEzMTI1LjYwLjAuMA..">fuels hopes</a> for an end to the Ukraine war.</li><li>Trump's win created a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wealthiest-people-in-world-net-worth-increase-trump-victory-stocks-2024-11?_gl=1*1kcs0b*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAxMTE0MC4zNzguMS4xNzMxMDEzMTUyLjMzLjAuMA..">record $64 billion</a> of net worth for the world's 10 richest people.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.5% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.7% to $75.42 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose climbed 1.4% to $2,713.80 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury fell nine basis points to 4.335%. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was up slightly to $76,505.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Stocks extend post-election rally as the Fed cuts interest rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes climbed on Thursday after the huge post-election rally in the previous session. </li><li>Traders will shift their attention to the Fed, which is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut. </li></ul>Indexes edged up on Thursday, heading for another day of gains after Donald Trump's election victory <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11?_gl=1*16d1s21*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NDc2LjMwLjAuMA..">fueled a massive rally across the stock market on Wednesday.</a>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was just slightly higher after surging <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-victory-stock-market-today-dow-tsla-djt-bitcoin-yields-2024-11?_gl=1*1okordg*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NDk1LjExLjAuMA..">over 1,500 points</a>, up 3.6% in its biggest single-day percentage gain in two years.Bank stocks and tech shares rallied in the session, fueled by hopes for a lighter regulatory touch and corporate tax cuts under Trump. Bitcoin also gained, given Trump's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-going-for-crypto-bro-vote-world-liberty-financial-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">pro-crypto stance</a>.On Thursday, investors will turn their attention toward the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. That would continue the central bank's easing cycle, which kicked off with a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September. After this month's meeting, fed fund futures show the outlook for monetary policy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-fed-pause-rate-cuts-easing-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-11">becomes less clear</a>, with expectations for further cuts declining in the last week. Markets are adjusting to the reality of a second Trump presidency, which economists have said would likely drive inflation if he enacts campaign proposals like broad tariffs and mass deportations. The latest data on Thursday showed weekly jobless claims increased slightly to 221,000, a gain of 3,000 from the week prior and in line with expectations.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,950.88, up 0.37% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,754.89, up 0.06% (+24.86. points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,114.17, up 0.69%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11?_gl=1*1y0bf0i*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NDQ2LjYwLjAuMA..">3 post-election reasons</a> why stocks will rise into year-end, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li>"Crypto president" Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bitcoin-price-btc-record-high-donald-trump-victory-presidential-election-2024-11?_gl=1*bputk0*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NTExLjYwLjAuMA..">investors cheering</a> as bitcoin hits record.</li><li>These 5 billionaires were the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaires-net-worth-trump-stock-market-nvidia-tesla-2024-11?_gl=1*n9h555*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NTM0LjM3LjAuMA..">biggest net-worth winners</a> on Wednesday as stocks surged.</li><li>There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11?_gl=1*zwkckg*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NjAyLjMxLjAuMA..">big warning sign</a> for consumers flashing as stocks surge.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures fell. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> dipped 0.5% to $71.30 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.4% to $74.62 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.8% to $2,697.40 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield slipped three basis points to 4.396%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged up to $74,891. </li></ul>

Stock market today: Stocks edge higher after huge rally as traders await Fed decision

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Vaccine stocks have tumbled since Trump appointed vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to health secretary.</li><li>Vaccine-makers Moderna, Pfizer, and GSK saw sharp losses.</li></ul>It's been a tough day for health stocks since Donald Trump announced his appointment of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-robert-f-kennedy-jr-rfk-department-health-human-services-2024-11">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.</a> — a staunch vaccine skeptic — as health secretary.The news, which came late in the day on Thursday, sent the shares of vaccine-makers sharply lower on Friday, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/mrna-stock">Moderna</a> leading the losses, falling as much as 10%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pfe-stock">Pfizer</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvax-stock">Novavax</a> both dropped 6% at intraday lows, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gsk-stock">GSK</a> lost 5%.But the selling wasn't contained to just vaccine names. It spread into US-exposed European healthcare stocks, such as Novo Nordisk and Roche, which were down 5% and 3% at intraday lows, respectively.The losses extend a days-long skid for the sector after the election results last week saw investors boost bets that Kennedy — a key Trump ally — would notch a cabinet role.Since Election Day, Moderna has fallen more than 30%, while Pfizer has slid 11%. Those losses have stood in contrast to the rally enjoyed by the rest of the market, which has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">rallied</a> on the hopes that Trump's lighter regulatory stance and corporate tax cuts could boost corporate earnings.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-views-vaccines-autism-testing-debunked-2023-7">Kennedy</a> has long railed against vaccines, once calling those that protect against Covid-19 a "crime against humanity." He has treaded more carefully in recent weeks, though, and has said he wouldn't outright ban vaccines."If vaccines are working for somebody, I'm not going to take that away. People ought to have choice," he told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-win-rfk-jr-says-wont-take-away-anybodys-vaccines-rcna178955">NBC</a> after Trump's election.Since Trump's election win, several analysts have downgraded their outlooks on vaccine stocks amid the rising uncertainty in the industry. Bank of America analysts lowered their price target on Moderna last week, from $110 to $90, partially citing uncertainty after Trump's election win, while Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Papadakis cut his rating on GSK to a hold after Kennedy's appointment."We consider vaccines to be amongst the greatest scientific achievements to impact public health: unfortunately this view is not shared by the nominee," Papadakis wrote in a client note <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-15/health-stocks-slide-as-trump-picks-vaccine-skeptic-kennedy">seen by Bloomberg</a>.Formerly an environmental justice lawyer, Kennedy pivoted to running an anti-vaccine charity in recent years, and ran for president as an independent candidate in this election cycle. He dropped out to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rfk-jr-drops-out-presidential-race-2024-8">endorse Trump</a> in August, which some sources reported was a bid to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rfk-wanted-white-house-job-exchange-for-endorsing-trump-report-2024-7">secure a position</a> in the administration.In his role as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-rfk-jr-plans-to-make-america-healthy-again-2024-11">health secretary</a>, Kennedy will have a top role in health policy in the US, but likely won't be able to actually control which vaccines children are required to get for school. That will remain up to individual states, but he could change vaccine requirements for federal employees or the US military.That's if the Senate confirms his appointment, which some have said could be a close vote considering mixed reactions among policymakers so far.Kennedy has also promoted removing fluoride from water supplies and overhauling federal food regulations, and has supported products like raw milk, which the Food and Drug Administration warns against.He's also floated hopes to cut highly processed food from school lunches, which was a priority under the Obama administration.

Health stocks are tumbling after Trump's appointment of vaccine skeptic RFK Jr.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks ended Monday mostly higher, led by a surge in Tesla on the potential for easing autonomous vehicle rules.</li><li>The Nasdaq 100 rebounded after a more than 3% drop last week, which was partly influenced by the Fed's interest-rate outlook.</li></ul>US stocks traded mostly higher on Monday, partly driven by a surge in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla.</a>Tesla stock jumped as much as 9% after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-reportedly-relaxing-self-driving-rules-tsla-2024-11">a report said</a> the incoming Trump administration was planning to ease regulations on autonomous vehicles.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> led the market higher, ending a five-day losing streak, while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> gained slightly and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones</a> edged lower.The gains in the Nasdaq on Monday come after last week's more-than-3% decline, which was exacerbated by comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.Powell said in a Thursday speech that the Fed can take its time in lowering interest rates.Investors are now pricing in a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at December's Fed meeting, down from 80% before Powell's comments, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Investors' top concerns this week include Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report, which is due after the market closes on Wednesday.For economic data, traders will be paying attention to housing starts and building permits, which are due out Tuesday morning. That will be followed by existing home sales and initial jobless claims, which are set to be released Thursday morning.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,893.62, up 0.4%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,389.60, down 0.1% (55 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,791.81, up 0.6%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">The stock market's Trump honeymoon is starting to turn sour</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/read-spirit-airlines-open-letter-customers-bankruptcy-keep-flying-booking-2024-11">Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-blackwell-chip-ai-overheating-delay-share-price-2024-11">Nvidia's next-gen Blackwell GPU chip has reportedly hit an overheating snag.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-trump-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">Watch these 4 signs of re-inflation ahead of Trump's second administration.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-bullish-11-upside-2024-11">Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson turned bullish on stocks, issuing a 2025 year-end price target of 6,500 for the S&amp;P 500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-reportedly-relaxing-self-driving-rules-tsla-2024-11">Uber shares fell 5% following concerns that a Tesla autonomous vehicle network could impact its business negatively.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 3.32% to $69.14 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 3.18% to $73.30 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> increased 1.66% to $2,612.70 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 2 basis points to 4.422%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> gained 1.58% to $91,300.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tesla powers tech rally as Nasdaq snaps 5-day skid

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election win has sent the US stock market to fresh highs.</li><li>Morgan Stanley says three risks could upend the ongoing Trump trade.</li></ul>Equity investors have embraced Donald Trump's return to the White House, but the post-election rally isn't entirely risk-free.So far, US indexes have hit <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">new highs</a> as investors look ahead to what Trump's promised policies mean for earnings growth. But while market momentum remains firmly upward, Morgan Stanley outlined three risks that could upend it.First, a significant jump in Treasury bond yields could stir anxiety among equity investors, the bank said.Trump's election has already sent yields surging, as Wall Street expects his policies to boost inflation, keeping interest rates elevated. As it became clear Trump won last week, the 10-year note jumped as much as 21 basis points to 4.47% on November 6.So far, this hasn't been enough to discourage stock investors, but Morgan Stanley suggests that further increases could spell trouble for equities. For instance, concern over the government's ballooning deficit could drive higher yields, the bank said.JPMorgan analysts share this outlook, noting that the stock market rally would <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/treasury-bond-yields-selloff-risk-trump-trade-tariff-immigration-tax-2024-11">face fatigue once bond yields reach near 5%</a>.<div type="image" title="Morgan Stanley chart comparing bond term premium with S&amp;P 500 P/Es" height="1138" width="2190" msid="115223450" hostid="261" sizebytes="75850"></div>Second, strength in the US dollar might mean issues for large-cap stocks.After the election, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/dollar-rises-to-highest-since-july-as-polls-close-in-key-states">Bloomberg dollar index surged</a> by the most in four years, reaching its highest since November 2023.As with bond yields, the greenback is surging on the prospect that US interest rates will remain higher for longer under Trump. Meanwhile, foreign currencies fell against the dollar over worries that the president-elect will implement wide-sweeping tariffs on all US trade."If dollar strength continues at the current pace into year-end, it could slow down multinationals' EPS growth for 4Q24 and 2025," Morgan Stanley wrote, later adding: "This would likely be felt more in the large cap indices (where mega cap weights tend to have higher foreign sales exposure) than in the average stock which is why the broadening out can continue under the surface even if the dollar proves to be a headwind."Third, equities keep getting more overpriced.As this year's bullish investors raced to gain exposure to market themes tied to artificial intelligence, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> has increasingly moved away from its fundamentals."More specifically, the y/y change in the S&amp;P has rarely been this disconnected from earnings revision breadth," the analysts wrote, adding: "Once again, this is more of a consideration for the major indices than for the average stock but it does suggest that more upside in multiples is likely contingent on the data confirming a reacceleration in growth."But this shouldn't be treated as a warning signal to turn bearish, Piper Sandler analysts said in October. Even with the S&amp;P overvalued by 8% last month, a downturn catalyst would need to appear to crush <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overvalued-sp500-bullish-earnings-momentum-rally-valuations-2024-10">market momentum</a>. That could include a sudden jump in interest rates or inflation.

3 risks that could derail the Trump trade in stocks, Morgan Stanley says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks climbed higher as traders took in inflation figures from October that were in-line with estiamtes.</li><li>Consumer prices rose 2.6% on a yearly basis last month and 0.2% for the month. </li></ul>US stocks ticked higher on Wednesday as traders took in fresh <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflation figures</a>, which were in line with economists' expectations. Major indexes edged up in early-morning trading, while bond yields slumped.Consumer prices grew 0.2% in the month of October and 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. The increase was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">slightly hotter</a> than last month's 2.4% price growth, but in line with expectations, which kept investors hopeful that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting. Expectations for another 25 basis point rate cut in December solidified. Markets are pricing in a 82% chance the Fed will trim its target rate by another quarter-point, up from a 59% yesterday, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>."Given nervousness around the more inflationary aspects of Trump's policy proposals, markets appeared primed for an upside inflation surprise today," Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a note. "A December cut is still in the cards," she added.Still, the rise in the overall inflation rate makes the outlook for future Fed cuts uncertain, according to Skyler Weinand, the chief investment officer of Regan Capital."With Wednesday's CPI in line with expectations, but still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% goal, the Fed may have only one rate cut left in December before taking a pause from their easing path," Weinand said in a note.He continued: "The incredible move in the stock market postelection has effectively eased financial conditions for stock investors. This easing, combined with incoming fiscal stimulus, may warrant a pause on rate cuts by the Fed in the near future to allow the dust to settle and to process more incoming data."Assets that are part of the Trump Trade appeared to remain in-focus on Wednesday, with shares of Tesla rising as much as 3% while Dogecoin climbed 4% after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-tesla-spacex-x-department-government-efficiency-jobs-2024-11">Elon Musk was appointed</a> to co-head Trump's newly created Department of Government Efficiency, along with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,988.06, up 0.07%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,988.08, up 0.18% (+77.10 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,285.65, up 0.03% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-top-performing-asset-2025-bull-rally-trump-2024-11">Stock exposure is at an 11-year high</a> after the election as investors see US stocks as the top-performing asset next year, BofA said. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-biggest-risk-trump-win-china-trade-war-2024-11">The biggest risk to stocks</a> after Trump's election victory is China's reaction to a trade war, according to one research firm.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dogecoin-price-market-value-ford-crypto-boom-trump-elon-musk-2024-11">Dogecoin surpassed Ford in value</a> as Trump's election win propelled the total crypto market cap to $3 trillion.</li><li>Here are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-trump-trade-outlook-risks-inflation-yields-dollar-2024-11">3 risks that could derail the Trump trade in stocks</a>, according to Morgan Stanley.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 1.07% to $67.39 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.92% to $71.23 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged up 0.61% to $2,612.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points to 4.365%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> climbed 4.29% to $89,642.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes edge higher after tame October inflation report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Shopify's stock popped 25% on Tuesday after reporting strong revenue and a promising holiday outlook.</li><li>The gains added fuel to Canada's stock rally, helping the market touch record highs. </li></ul>Shopify shares soared Tuesday, lifting Canda's benchmark stock index. Shares of the e-commerce firm popped as much as 25% after reporting revenue that beat estimates and giving strong guidance for the holiday season.With the heaviest weighting on Canada's benchmark index, Shopify's gains pushed the S&amp;P/TSX Composite Index up as much as 1% on Tuesday to touch nearly 25,025, marking the first time the index has crossed the 25,000 threshold.The company, which builds software to power online storefronts, reported earnings per share of $0.35, beating forecasts of $0.26 according to LSEG estimates. Revenue, meanwhile, came in at $2.16 billion versus estimates of $2.12 billion.Going forward, the company says it expects revenue growth in the mid- to high-twenties percentage for the present quarter, above forecasts of around 23% according to FactSet. The strong outlook shows optimism around spending in the upcoming holiday season.Shopify president Harley Finkelstein said the company's strong beat shows it's gaining market share among e-commerce companies. He said the company has attracted an increasing number of key retailers like Reebok, Hanes, and Vera Bradley."Shopify is increasingly the go-to platform of choice, not just for entrepreneurship, but for all of commerce. We are well positioned for extensive growth across different merchant segments, size, geographies, channels and products," Finkelstein said on a call with investors.The company is also making headway in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shopify-ai-use-boosts-efficiency-shakes-up-staff-structure-2024-5">incorporating new technology</a>, launching an AI assistant and AI-powered tools for merchants.Analysts from Citi said they have a bullish outlook for the stock, citing a large addressable market, secular tailwinds, and large-scale growth.The latest earnings add fuel to what has already been a hot streak for Shopify stock, which is up over 43% this year. Canada's benchmark index has soared over 19% in 2024.

Shopify's 25% gain sends Canada's benchmark stock index to all-time highs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Disney's stock rose 8% Thursday after upbeat earnings and a rare three-year guidance update. </li><li>The company beat estimates for revenue and earnings-per-share. </li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/dis-stock">Disney</a> stock shot up 8% on Thursday after the entertainment giant reported earnings that beat estimates and surprised investors with guidance that gave a strong outlook for the next three years. The stock traded 8.4% higher around 10:45 a.m. ET, at $111.05 a share.The company beat revenue estimates for the third quarter, reporting $22.57 billion, versus estimates of $22.45 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.14 versus estimates of $1.10.The outlook provided to investors was also a big highlight of the report. The guidance update is rare for Disney, which usually doesn't provide forward earnings forecasts. The three-year timeframe is also significant, since most companies rarely make forecasts further out than one year, and many don't provide guidance at all. The company forecasts high single-digit earnings-per-share growth for the next fiscal year and an $875 million increase in operating income for its streaming division. For the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years, the company projects double-digit earnings growth."Thanks to the significant progress we've made, we have emerged from a period of considerable challenges and disruption well positioned for growth and optimistic about our future," CEO Bob Iger said in a statement.The company's streaming unit—which includes <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/disney-plus-price">Disney+</a>, ESPN+, and Hulu—saw a quarterly profit of $321 million, far outpacing a loss of $387 the year prior.The profits follow years of heavy investment amid a tense <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-earnings-winning-streaming-wars-not-even-close-2024-1">streaming war</a> with competitors like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-wins-streaming-wars-this-chart-shows-why-2024-1">Netflix</a>, Max, and Paramount+.Its TV networks, meanwhile, comprised of ABC and cable channels like the Disney Channel and Freeform, saw profits fall 38% to $498 million, while revenue dropped 6% to $2.5 billion.The company's theme park and cruise profits also slowed, falling 6% from the year before to an operating income of $1.66 billion amid rising costs after launching two <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-cruise-line-expanding-new-ships-private-destination-2024-8">new cruise ships</a>, plus slowing foot traffic at international parks like Disneyland Paris.Spending and attendance at US parks remained strong, though, the company said.Bank of America analysts maintained their bullish outlook for the stock following the report. They reiterated their "buy" rating and $120 price target, which would represent almost 8% upside from current levels. "DIS has a collection of best-in-class premiere assets (in content/IP as well as Theme Parks). Near term catalysts include: 1) profitability inflection in DTC and 2) reacceleration in parks business," Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote in a note.

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