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Mumbai: India is on track to becoming the <keyword id="20432305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="third-largest-economy" source="keywords">third-largest economy</keyword> by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent this fiscal, <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword> said in a report on Thursday. The report also said that with 8.2 per cent growth rate in FY2024, continued reforms are crucial to improving business transactions and logistics, boosting <keyword id="20423043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-sector-investment" source="keywords">private sector investment</keyword>, and reducing reliance on public capital. It said equity markets are expected to stay dynamic and competitive due to strong growth prospects and better regulation, and foreign inflows into Indian government bonds have surged since the country joined major emerging market indexes, with further growth anticipated. To maximize trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline, said the first edition of 'India Forward: Emerging Perspectives' report. Nearly 90 per cent of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports, it added. Noting that India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels, balancing energy security with its energy transition plans, the report stated that agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability, it added. The <keyword id="23234467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-india-research" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global India Research</keyword> Chapter's inaugural study was launched here on Thursday.

India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

India's corporate credit landscape is showing positive trends that are expected to persist, according to a recent report by <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword>. The report highlights strengthening credit quality across various sectors, driven by enhanced <keyword id="20994126" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-discipline" source="keywords">financial discipline</keyword>, broad-based <keyword id="19899597" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earnings-growth" source="keywords">earnings growth</keyword>, and robust liquidity profiles. S&amp;P Global's analysis reveals that one in three ratings within India now shows a positive outlook, marking a significant shift after three years of net positive rating actions. The report indicates that corporate India has built greater resilience against downside risks, reflecting a more stable and robust credit environment. However, corporate leverage in India is expected to decline marginally, even as capital expenditure (capex) rises by 30% compared to pre-pandemic levels. This improvement is attributed to more entrenched financial discipline among companies, which have managed to balance rising capex with prudent financial management. The report forecasts a 10% growth in aggregate EBITDA in 2024, driven by strong performance in sectors such as telecommunications, airports, commodities, and chemicals. This broad-based earnings growth underscores the resilience of corporate India and its ability to generate substantial cash flows despite a challenging global environment. Indian companies are benefiting from strong onshore liquidity and the absence of large debt maturities, which support their liquidity profiles. The resilience of these companies to foreign exchange and interest rate volatility further strengthens their liquidity positions. Corporate India's positive credit trends are closely linked to broader economic drivers such as GDP growth. Increased consumer spending is bolstering sectors like airports, automobiles, and telecommunications. Meanwhile, infrastructure investment is significantly boosting the commodities, utilities, and commercial automotive sectors. S&amp;P Global notes that both infrastructure and non-infrastructure sectors are experiencing reductions in leverage, with absolute debt reduction more pronounced in non-infrastructure sectors. However, infrastructure entities are slower in reducing debt due to higher capex, particularly in energy transition initiatives. Operating cash flows across sectors are outpacing capex, supporting further deleveraging. While capex intensity remains higher in infrastructure sectors, the neutral free operating cash flow is seen as a positive trend, indicating that companies are managing their capital expenditures efficiently while maintaining cash flows. The transportation infrastructure sector is benefiting from traffic growth and tariff increases, with rising cargo volumes supporting port revenues and improved operating efficiencies boosting margins. Airports are also experiencing higher traffic levels and tariff increases, contributing to better operating cash flows and overall credit quality. In the utilities sector, rising demand and new capacity are driving earnings growth, though capex remains high, particularly for energy transition projects. The steel sector is expected to see increased operating cash flow due to falling input prices and new capacity additions. Earnings in the oil and gas sector are expected to remain stable, supported by a favorable price outlook and consistent production levels. The telecom sector is also on a path to significant deleveraging, with capex expected to moderate following the 5G auctions in 2023. The auto sector is witnessing sustained operating performance as volumes stabilize after the supply chain disruptions of 2022. S&amp;P Global notes that debt levels in the auto sector are expected to remain low following sharp deleveraging, while normalized growth in auto sales and stable margins support the sector's positive outlook. In the chemicals sector, falling input costs and stabilized product prices are expected to drive earnings recovery following a downturn in 2023. Improved signals show a broader trend of recovery across various industrial sectors in India. S&amp;P Global concludes that with the highest proportion of positive credit outlooks in the region, India's corporate sector is well-positioned for continued <keyword id="22758432" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-quality-improvement" source="keywords">credit quality improvement</keyword>. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/saraswati-saree-depot-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112457330.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/saraswati-saree-depot-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112457330.cms" target="_blank">Saraswati Saree Depot IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-wearables-market-decline-for-the-first-time-as-smartwatch-shipments-fall/articleshow/112397246.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-wearables-market-decline-for-the-first-time-as-smartwatch-shipments-fall/articleshow/112397246.cms" target="_blank">India’s wearables market decline for the first time as smartwatch shipments fall</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/ola-wants-to-re-enter-the-quick-commerce-business-to-take-on-blinkit-and-swiggy-instamart/articleshow/112364583.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/ola-wants-to-re-enter-the-quick-commerce-business-to-take-on-blinkit-and-swiggy-instamart/articleshow/112364583.cms" target="_blank">Ola wants to re-enter the quick commerce business to take on Blinkit and Swiggy Instamart</a>

India's corporate credit quality is getting stronger: S&P Global

The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

Strong growth and a narrower <keyword id="19942084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-deficit" source="keywords">fiscal deficit</keyword> can lead to a <keyword id="20424939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sovereign-rating" source="keywords">sovereign rating</keyword> upgrade for <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>, a German brokerage said on Monday. The government's commitments on fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent in FY25 and further down to 4.5 per cent in FY26 "look more credible now", analysts at <keyword id="19960549" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Deutsche-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Deutsche Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Deutsche Bank">Deutsche Bank</keyword> said, pointing out that the number came in at 5.6 per cent in FY24 as against the budgeted 5.8 per cent. Courtesy the higher than expected dividend announcement by the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) at Rs 2.1 lakh crore, the fiscal deficit for FY25 can come down to 5 per cent as against the budgeted 5.1 per cent. On growth, the note said it expects real GDP expansion to come at 6.9 per cent in FY25 and go down further to 6.5 per cent in FY26. "Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit opens up room for ratings upgrade," the note said. "A faster-than-anticipated pace of fiscal consolidation could pave the way for a sooner-rather-than-later sovereign rating upgrade for India," the analysts said. It can be noted that global rating agency <keyword id="20043943" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P">S&amp;P</keyword> had last week revised up the outlook on its sovereign rating for India to "positive" from "stable" earlier. On Friday, official data suggested that the economy grew at a faster clip of 8.2 per cent in the March quarter, which takes the FY24 real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> to 7.6 per cent. The note said the Indian economy has exhibited "remarkable resilience" despite higher rates for longer, the Russia-Ukraine war and Covid prior to that, though a strong pickup in real GDP growth during FY24 can be also attributed materially to a very low <keyword id="21922336" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-deflator" source="keywords">GDP deflator</keyword>. It explained that nominal GDP growth slowed to 9.6 per cent in FY24, from 14.2 per cent in FY23 and 19 per cent in FY22. But in real terms, GDP growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent in FY24 from 7 per cent in FY23, thanks to a collapse in the GDP deflator to 1.4 per cent in FY24 from 7.6 per cent year-on-year in FY23 and 9.4 per cent in FY22. Deutsche Bank also advised caution on reading the headline GDP numbers, pointing out that while the real GDP grew 8.2 per cent, real GVA (gross value added) growth was 1 percentage point lower at 7.2 per cent.

Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit may lead to India rating upgrade: Deutsche Bank

India's services sector grew at a robust pace in September, as a positive demand environment boosted intakes of new business and output volumes, according to the <keyword id="30287" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp" source="Orion">S&amp;P</keyword> Global survey released on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted <keyword id="13829175" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-india-services" source="Orion">S&amp;P Global India Services</keyword> PMI Business Activity Index rose from 60.1 in August to 61.0 in September, signalling a sharp upturn in output that was one of the strongest in over 13 years. With workloads rising and capacities experiencing mild pressure, job numbers continued to increase at a historically high rate. Services firms retained positive expectations for activity, with sentiment improving to its highest level in over nine years, the survey stated. September's expansion in output was commonly associated with effective marketing, favourable demand conditions and strong influxes of new business. "The latest PMI results brought more positive news for India's service economy, with September seeing business activity and new work intakes rising to one of the greatest extents in over 13 years. Besides demand strength domestically, firms noted higher international sales to Asia, Europe and North America," said Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at <keyword id="3435727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-market-intelligence" source="Orion">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword>. "Moreover, an upturn in business optimism about the year ahead, fuelled by buoyant demand conditions, bode well to further growth across the service sector. Unsurprisingly, job creation was sustained as the business mood improved," Lima added. The latest data showed a substantial increase in new business placed with Indian service providers, one that was the second-fastest since June 2010. Anecdotal evidence indicated that market dynamics remained favourable, supporting demand. Advertising was also cited as a key factor boosting sales.

India's services sector growth surges to 13-yr high in Sep: S&P survey

<keyword id="19938772" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Industries-Ltd" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reliance Industries Ltd" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Reliance Industries Ltd">Reliance Industries Ltd</keyword> has won a vote of confidence from global rating agencies <keyword id="20043943" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP" source="keywords">S&amp;P</keyword> and <keyword id="19950093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fitch" source="keywords">Fitch</keyword> after its robust earnings in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024, supported its growth aspirations and kept leverage under check. S&amp;P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings in separate notes spoke of its <keyword id="19957744" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EBITDA" source="keywords">EBITDA</keyword> (loosely known as pre-tax profit) rising in the current fiscal year and next on rising revenue and past investments. "<keyword id="19896380" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Industries" source="keywords">Reliance Industries</keyword> Ltd's (<keyword id="20002939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ril" source="keywords">RIL</keyword>) strong earnings will keep leverage in check as the company continues to pursue growth ambitions. We expect the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio to remain commensurate with the rating (BBB+/Stable/--)," S&amp;P said in a note. The oil-to-telecom-and-retail conglomerate's growth aspirations remain intact, it said, adding the company has ramped up investments in the media business in recent months. In 2024, it entered into binding definitive agreements with The Walt Disney Co for a media joint venture in which RIL will invest Rs 11,500 crore. The company subsequently agreed to buy Paramount Global's 13.01 per cent stake in local entertainment network Viacom18 Media Pte Ltd for about Rs 4,300 crore. "These investments are in line with RIL's strategy to diversify and have a strong presence in a few key industries," the rating agency said. Also, the company received government approval in 2024 to develop gas reserves in the KG-D6 block in the Bay Of Bengal. This could increase the company's gas production capacity by 13-17 per cent. RIL's earlier announced investments include a Rs 75,000 crore expansion plan over five years (starting 2022) for the oil-to-chemicals business. "RIL's earnings will benefit from past investments," S&amp;P said. "We project the company's adjusted EBITDA will rise 2-4 per cent in fiscal 2025 (year ending March 31, 2025)," it added. Just as in the past two years, the digital services segment (Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd) will be the key growth driver, with segment's EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation) increasing 10-12 per cent in fiscal 2025. Reliance Jio's wireless subscriber base and average revenue per user will gain from the company's investments in its 5G network since late 2022. Meanwhile, earnings in the oil and gas as well as retail segments will reap the rewards of increased production volume and a wider retail store network. "The EBITDA improvement that we expect in fiscal 2025 comes after a 14 per cent increase to Rs 1.6 lakh crore in fiscal 2024," it said. S&amp;P saw RIL's rising earnings providing it greater balance-sheet flexibility for growth. "We expect the combination of robust operating performances and continued spending to keep the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio at 1.8x-2.0x over the next two years. This compares with our estimate of 1.7x for fiscal 2024 and our downgrade trigger of 2.5x," S&amp;P said. RIL's leverage has some distance from the upper end of the company's internal leverage target. RIL has reiterated its intention to keep its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio (by its own calculations) below 1x. The ratio was 0.65x as of March 31, 2024. Separately, Fitch Ratings said RIL's EBITDA net leverage is likely to remain below 1x in the medium term, supported by increasing cash flows and lower capex intensity, even as the conglomerate's absolute capex and investments remain high in the near term. "We expect RIL's EBITDA to increase by 8 per cent year-on-year in the financial year ending March 2025 (FY25) and 14 per cent in FY26, while capex intensity (capex/revenue) is likely to reduce below 13 per cent by FY26 (FY24: 15.3 per cent). Lower capex intensity would be driven by growing revenue and reduction in capex after FY25," it said. Fitch expected the conglomerate's Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) to be sufficient to fund its capex from FY26, which will limit additional debt funding and keep its EBITDA net leverage below 1.0x in the medium term (FY24: 0.9x, FY23: 1.1x). "Fitch estimates RIL's FY24 EBITDA net leverage at 0.9x, better than our expectation of 1.1x, driven by marginally higher EBITDA and Rs 20,900 crore of equity raised mainly from the sale of a stake in a subsidiary, even as its capex remained high at Rs 1.5 lakh crore (FY23: Rs 1.4 lakh crore)," the rating agency said in a statement. It rates RIL at 'BBB'/Stable, one notch above India's rating (BBB-/Stable). "We expect the EBITDA increase in the near to medium term to be driven by the telecom and retail businesses, supported by contribution from the upstream oil and gas segment and marginal recovery in petrochemical spreads in the oil to chemical (O2C) segment," Fitch said, adding EBITDA from digital services, largely telecom, is likely to benefit from a 10-15 per cent tariff hike and 15-20 million of additional subscribers in FY25 (FY24: 482 million subscribers). Digital services EBITDA rose by 13 per cent in FY24, as Reliance added 42 million subscribers and monthly average revenue per user increased to Rs 182. Monthly user data consumption increased by 24 per cent to 28.7 GB, one of the highest globally. Fitch expected retail EBITDA to increase by 20-25 per cent in FY25 (FY24: 28%) as Reliance continues to expand its physical stores and digital channels. EBITDA would be supported by a 22.2 per cent increase in its registered customer base to 304 million in FY24. Also, O2C segment EBITDA is expected to remain above Rs 60,000 crore in FY25 (FY24: Rs 62,400 crore), as a gradual improvement in petrochemical spreads from FY24 lows is expected as a supply overhang recedes. Upstream oil and gas EBITDA should stay at around Rs 20,000 crore in FY25 (FY24: Rs 20,200 crore), assisted by the expectation of a 10 per cent increase in gas production in the first full year of operation of three gas fields in the KG-D6 block, which should offset the potential reduction in price realisation with lower gas prices in international benchmarks. 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India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

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India's corporate credit quality is getting stronger: S&P Global

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S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

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Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit may lead to India rating upgrade: Deutsche Bank

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India's services sector growth surges to 13-yr high in Sep: S&P survey

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Reliance gets thumbs-up from S&P, Fitch as strong earnings keep leverage in check

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