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<keyword id="644986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Heatwaves" source="Orion">Heatwaves</keyword> somewhere, <keyword id="48088" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="floods" source="Orion">floods</keyword> in other parts of the country – India has witnessed extreme <keyword id="14334985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="weather-patterns-in-2022" source="Orion">weather patterns in 2022</keyword> and we are only just halfway through the year. <div type="image" title="India has witnessed extreme weather patterns in 2022" msid="92584664" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;India has witnessed extreme weather patterns in 2022 &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Erratic monsoon in India India is witnessing <a href="https://www.mid-day.com/lifestyle/nature-and-wildlife/article/erratic-rainfall-pattern-in-india-amid-climate-change-warns-ipcc-report-23223005">erratic</a> rainfall after suffering from intense heat waves in April. On one hand, Assam has received <a href="https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2022-06-24-southwest-monsoon-to-cover-india-entirely-between-june-30-and-july-6">too much</a> rainfall and on the other, Jharkhand has received around half of what it’s due. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">easterly winds</a> that bring monsoon to the Northwest India have been absent in June this year, leading to a dry spell in the region. Instead, those winds drifted to Northeast India, leading to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">floods</a>. As June came to an end, as per <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1542378873492344835">IMD</a>, Southwest monsoon advanced into entire Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmiri, some parts of Rajasthan, entire Delhi, some parts of Punjab and Haryana on Thursday. According to the latest EcoScope report from research firm Motilal Oswal, India’s cumulative rainfall has a reported deficit of 7% as of June 26, 2022 after reporting a surplus of 20% in 2021 and 22% in 2020. The deficiency of rainfall is because the northwestern, central and southern parts of India have a shortfall of rains, suggesting that the issue is a lot more widespread than initially expected. <div type="image" title="The northwestern, central and southern parts of India have a shortfall of rains" msid="92584693" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The northwestern, central and southern parts of India have a shortfall of rains&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> A see-saw summer From long dry spells to excessive rainfall, 2022 has been a year of extremes so far. As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), April was the <a href="https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20220402_pr_1551.pdf">hottest</a> month for northwest and central India and the third-hottest April the country has seen over the past 122 years, from 1901 to 2022. The daily high temperatures measured each year have also been increasing at a faster rate than daily low temperatures. This indicates that the distribution of temperature is shifting and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/india-heat-wave-in-pictures.html">changing</a> the ‘normal’ state. In fact, 12 of the country’s 15 <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1686173">warmest years</a> on record have occurred in the last 30 years. <div type="image" title="12 of the country’s 15 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 30 years" msid="92584779" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;12 of the country&amp;#8217;s 15 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 30 years&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> These recurring patterns of intense hot spells and erratic rainfall could be a sign of climate change and global warming. Our country is also expected to suffer through more frequent and intense hot spells, extreme rainfall and erratic monsoons in the coming decades as the planet warms, said <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-s-record-heatwave-to-get-worse-authorities-blame-global-warming-122042900785_1.html">United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel</a>, a body for assessing science related to climate change. Cascading impacts of climate change This radical change in the weather is not good news for a country like India, which is heavily dependent on agriculture as it contributes <a href="https://india.mongabay.com/2021/10/extreme-weather-becomes-the-new-normal-in-indias-main-monsoon-season/">16-20% to GDP</a>, according to Finance Ministry data. In a country like India farmers are heavily dependent on monsoons for irrigating their fields, erratic rainfall and hot summer are the bane for their cultivation. According to a <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS">World Bank report</a>, as of 2015, nearly 62% of the agricultural lands in India are dependent on monsoon rains for irrigation. As of 24th Jun’22, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">Kharif sowing</a> is 24% lower than the area sown last year. <div type="image" title="Kharif sowing is 24% lower than the area sown last year" msid="92584805" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Kharif sowing is 24% lower than the area sown last year&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> The 2022 summer, which was ridden with heatwaves, led to cascading impacts not just on human health, but also on ecosystems such as agriculture, water and energy supplies. Power demand spiked and coal inventories dropped, leaving the country with its worst <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/why-are-there-power-cuts-and-heatwave-in-india/articleshow/91177785.cms">power shortage</a> in more than six years. The heat wave also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/after-five-record-crops-heat-wave-threatens-indias-wheat-output-export-plans-2022-05-02/">threatened</a> India’s wheat output plan. According to a World Meteorological Organization report released in 2020, India lost more than <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-lost-87-billion-to-climate-disasters-in-2020-report-101635272896946.html">$87 billion</a> (approx. ₹6.8 lakh crore) due to disasters such as cyclones, floods and droughts. However, there’s still hope to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">control</a> climate change. It will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels (such as hydrogen).

SIMPLY PUT: Extreme weather is the new normal in India

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], February 28 (<keyword id="19904948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ani" source="keywords">ANI</keyword>): The State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has released its analysis projecting the GDP growth for the third quarter of the financial year 2023-24. According to their report, the GDP growth is likely to be at 6.8 per cent, based on an unchanged base, but could potentially hit 7 per cent due to expected downward revisions in the estimates for Q3 FY23. As per a report by <keyword id="20407500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="soumya-kanti-ghosh" source="keywords">Soumya Kanti Ghosh</keyword>, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, the global economic landscape, as outlined in the report, presents a mixed picture with several significant developments impacting the trajectory. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025, indicating a brighter outlook. However, challenges persist, with countries like the UK and Japan slipping into recession, alongside concerns over the German economy. Additionally, China's marked slowdown, driven by deflationary concerns and declining industrial profits, adds further complexity to the global scenario. In contrast, India's domestic economic indicators show signs of resilience and optimism. Consumer confidence has strengthened, supported by positive sentiments regarding the economic situation and employment conditions. Various enterprise surveys also reflect strong business optimism. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index, comprising 41 leading indicators across sectors, suggests a slight moderation in economic activity in Q3 FY24. Based on this data, the SBI Economic Research Department estimates GDP growth in the range of 6.7-6.9 per cent, with a Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 6.6 per cent. Corporate India continues to exhibit robust performance, driven by accelerating consumption patterns across urban and rural areas. Corporate results for Q3FY24 indicate significant growth in <keyword id="20140796" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ebidta" source="keywords">EBIDTA</keyword> and PAT (Profit After Tax), with a notable improvement in margins. Corporate GVA, measured by EBIDTA plus employee expenses, recorded strong growth compared to the previous year. The agricultural sector, however, faces some challenges, with a decline in the estimated production of major Kharif crops for 2023-24 compared to FY23. While the sowing season for Rabi crops suggests a slight increase in overall acreage, concerns arise over the decline in the sown area under cereals. Despite these challenges, the inland fish production has shown rapid growth, reaching 131.13 lakh tonnes in 2022-23. The fisheries sector's contribution to the national GVA and agricultural GVA indicates potential support for the Agri &amp; Allied sector's growth in FY24. (ANI)

SBI Eco Research forecasts Q3 FY24 GDP growth at 6.8% amid global complexities

NEW DELHI: Indian farmers are revising their sowing strategy and cropping patterns as they look to make the most of the rain they’ll get during the June-September monsoon season. 
 
The state-run India Meteorological Department and private forecasters such as Skymet have indicated that rain could be deficient, with some probability of a drought. Farmers are hoping to be prepared for such an eventuality. 
 
To begin with, some are looking to cultivate crops that will require less water such as cotton, guar, jowar, pulses, maize and soyabean. Others are opting for short-duration crops such as basmati rather than paddy. Sales of drought-tolerant seed varieties could also see a surge. 
 Availability of water for irrigation is a substantial challenge because of poor infrastructure in a country where two-thirds of the arable land is rain fed. More than 42% of the area under paddy, which accounts for over 70% of the kharif crop in the country, is rainfed across Uttar Pradesh, <keyword id="30033" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Bihar">Bihar</keyword>, <keyword id="6355554" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Madhya-Pradesh">Madhya Pradesh</keyword>, <keyword id="43945" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Chhattisgarh">Chhattisgarh</keyword> and West Bengal. 
 
Nand Kishore Singh of Tariyani village in the Jaunpur district of Uttar Pradesh may sow black gram (urad) this year rather than paddy if the season is dry. “We are dependent on monsoon rains and it will be unviable to get a crop if rains are weak and unevenly spread,” he said. 
 
According to rough estimates, 5,000 litres of water is needed for producing 1 kg of paddy whereas 1 kg of basmati requires 400-500 litre of water. 
 
KVS Sandhu, a vegetable grower in Patiala, Punjab, will be allocating 25 acres of land on his farm for basmati this year. 
 
“Growing paddy could pose a problem if rains are unevenly distributed across the four months and hence I will go for basmati sowing for the first time,” said Sandhu, who’s a former bureaucrat. The 70-day crop will need less water than the 90-110-day paddy crop, he said. 
 
Sandhu, a leading vegetable exporter, has already sown ladies’ fingers to export to the European Union and the Middle East. 
 
Most farmers across north India, after harvesting wheat in March, went in for maize, green gram (moong) and even vegetables to earn extra. They will now opt for basmati in July. 
 
Acreage of India’s largest vegetable export, guar, could also increase as companies begin distributing free seeds to farmers. 
 Maganbhai Patel, a cotton and groundnut <keyword id="48857" type="POSITION" weightage="40" keywordseo="Farmer">farmer</keyword> in Gujarat who has 30 acres of land, has been approached by traders and companies to sow guar this year. “We haven’t ever sown guar in our area. The crop doesn’t require any water or fertilizer and it will be a net profit for me even if I get Rs 7,500 per quintal by the end of the harvest,” he said. Guar seed is currently being quoted at Rs 4,500-5,000 a quintal in the Gujarat market. 
 
In 2012, weak rains across western India led to a huge loss for cotton and groundnut farmers as wells ran dried. Patel, who heads Gujarat’s Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, feels that farmers will continue to sow the traditional groundnut, castor and cotton crops.
<div style="page-break-after: always;">
	&#xa0;</div>
“We are not businessmen and will do what best we know. From past experience of poor rains, farmers will go for short-range variety of cotton. If the government subsidises, we may even sow drought-variety seeds,” he said. 
 
The Centre and state governments have been issuing information on the possibility of a below-normal southwest monsoon and what farmer could sow to ensure remunerative returns. 
 “We have been told that this year there would be low rainfall so we have decided to sow soyabean and jowar as these crops need less water than other crops like sugar cane or vegetable plants,” said Singangoud Patil, a <keyword id="195892" type="POSITION" weightage="40" keywordseo="small-farmer">small farmer</keyword> in Kardiguddi village in Belgaum, Karnataka. 
 
“Generally we sow sugarcane but this year we might go with cotton or maize. We have already suffered huge losses due to abnormal rainfall early this year, so don’t want to take risk,” said Manjunath Chikkareddy, who owns 20 acres of land at Hooli in Belgaum.

Farmers Revise Sowing, Cropping Patterns To Overcome Weak Monsoon

<ul><li><keyword id="276564" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Satya-Nadella">Satya Nadella</keyword> was reportedly calling India’s new citizenship law ‘bad’ and ‘sad’ but soon issued a more diplomatic official statement on Twitter.</li><li>Nadella flip-flop on the issue could owe to the fact that one of Microsoft’s primary contenders, Amazon CEO <keyword id="191583" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jeff-Bezos">Jeff Bezos</keyword>, is scheduled to meet India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi tomorrow.</li><li>India’s importance for Microsoft is also growing as it hit the $1 billion mark in revenue last year and expanding collaborations with the government.</li></ul>Within hours of calling the <keyword id="6564012" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="citizenship-amendment-act">Citizenship Amendment Act</keyword> <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/en-in/microsoft-digital-governance-tech-tour-accelerate-digital-india/">‘bad’ and ‘sad’</a>, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella decided to take a more diplomatic approach. Aside from the big bucks at stake in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, Nadella may have to rethink his critique of the Indian government’s policies given his rival, Amazon’s top boss Jeff Bezos, is headed to India to meet none other than the country’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 
	
	<div type="twitter" handle="MicrosoftIndia" handlename="Microsoft India" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/884640054622040064/D-yhyh7L_normal.jpg" favoritecount="12558" retweetcount="5159" status="Statement from Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft https://t.co/lzsqAUHu3I" createdat="1578940526000" id="1216790874639589376"></div>





 Since his initial statements, some followers of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) on Twitter have been calling for a boycott of Microsoft products. Considering India’s importance for Microsoft, it’s understandable that he chose to flip-flop on his statement. 
	
	<div type="twitter" handle="BuzzFeedBen" handlename="Ben Smith" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1154905038755700737/GnV1kdPz_normal.jpg" favoritecount="19277" retweetcount="7967" status="Asked Microsoft CEO @satyanadella about India's new Citizenship Act. &quot;I think what is happening is sad... It's just… https://t.co/TWkoEW8egt" createdat="1578931068000" id="1216751208037261312"></div>





 India’s importance for Microsoft Last year, <keyword id="28250" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Microsoft-India">Microsoft India</keyword> reported more than $1 billion in revenue, according to business intelligence platform <a href="https://www.tofler.in/microsoft-corporation-india-pvt-ltd/company/U74899DL1988PTC032549">Tofler</a>. However, Microsoft’s billion-dollar business in India also faces intense competition. The company grew 13% last year but just a year earlier, the revenue had clocked a 12% drop. According to analysts, a lot of the company’s growth comes from enterprise solutions — the like expansion of its cloud business, Azure, and Office 365. Even <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/cloud-revenue-is-now-50-of-microsoft-india-revenue/articleshow/67567328.cms">Anant Maheshwari</a>, president of Microsoft India, admits that more than 50% of the company’s revenue comes from cloud and cloud-based services. However, the company has roughly a third of India’s estimated <a href="https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2019-11-05-gartner-says-end-user-spending-on-public-cloud-servic">$3 billion cloud market</a> despite being an early mover ⁠— Microsoft set up its first data centres in India in 2015 a year before Amazon Web Services. The day before Bezos meets Modi Nadella’s appraisal of India’s Citizenship Amendment Act also came a day before his rival Bezos is set to meet the country’s Prime Minister. Indian government has repeatedly said that it is looking to make big investments in digital infrastructure and that would be a big opportunity for the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, Google and the likes. Politicians are a sensitive lot, particularly in India. Nadella’s criticism at this juncture may allow the government to take a more charitable view of Microsoft’s rival Amazon for future opportunities. In the US, an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/enterprise/mobile/someone-is-spreading-an-amazon-smear-campaign-as-cloud-giants-compete-for-a-10-billion-defense-cloud-contract/articleshow/67185920.cms">anti-Amazon smear campaign</a> was spread around Washington D.C. that reportedly was one of the primary reasons why the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/news/microsoft-just-scored-a-huge-upset-over-amazon-by-winning-the-fierce-battle-over-the-10-billion-jedi-contract/articleshow/71768668.cms">Bezos-owned cloud service lost</a> the Joint Enterprise Defence Infrastructure (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/enterprise/news/ceo-satya-nadella-says-microsoft-beat-amazon-for-the-10-billion-jedi-cloud-contract-because-of-its-leadership-in-connecting-data-centers-to-the-cloud/amp_articleshow/73236458.cms">JEDI</a>) contract to Microsoft. Microsoft’s other engagements with the Indian government Last year, Microsoft <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/en-in/microsoft-digital-governance-tech-tour-accelerate-digital-india/">announced</a> the ‘Digital Governance Tech Tour’ to help skill government officials in charge of IT services across the country. “Microsoft’s first-of-its-kind Digital Governance Tech Tour for government officials reiterates our commitment to be a trusted partner to the government by enabling and empowering officials to do more with technology in service of the citizens,” said Maheshwari at the time. In a collaboration between the Indian government and the French government, Microsoft and other global tech giants — like Google, Facebook and Amazon — have helped set up the PaRis Artificial Intelligence Research (PRAIRIE) institute. In education, Microsoft is also helping the state government of Andhra Pradesh lower the rate of dropouts by trying to determine predictive patterns — the reasons behind why students leave school without completing their degree. Microsoft also has its fingers dipped in water management and urban planning when it comes to setting up smart cities, like Surat in Gujarat. It’s is also working with <a href="https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/NationalStrategy-for-AI-Discussion-Paper.pdf">NITI Aayog</a> on a pilot project for the early detection of diabetic retinopathy as well as with ICRISAT to develop an ‘AI sowing app’ to help farmers determine the best time to plant their crops. With so much at stake, it’s understandable why Satya Nadella decided to take a more centred stand on the issue of CAA rather than weigh heavy one side. Microsoft’s other investments beyond core business The American tech giant’s also partnered with Reliance Jio. <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/data-centres-may-prove-to-be-the-next-big-opportunity-in-india-/articleshow/71714171.cms">Reliance</a> said it would offer Microsoft cloud services to small and medium enterprises through its telecommunications network, Jio. In addition, it would set up data centres that would run Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing platform. The American tech giant is also giving Indian startups a push. Last year, it announced a new venture fund, M12 to invest to help emerging business ideas grow. “Microsoft has been playing a vital role in shaping and nurturing the startup community in India and across the world... We remain excited about India’s entrepreneurial startup potential and will continue to accelerate it as a growth engine for the economy,” explained <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/en-in/microsoft-digital-governance-tech-tour-accelerate-digital-india/">Maheshwari</a>. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/ecommerce/news/jeff-bezos-likely-to-attend-amazon-smbhav-event/articleshow/73239043.cms?src=hp_ts">There are 20 million reasons for Jeff Bezos’ likely personal appearance at Amazon’s mega event in India tomorrow</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/satya-nadella-answers-call-to-speak-on-caa-i-think-whats-happening-is-sad-its-just-bad-/articleshow/73237638.cms?src=hp_wh">Satya Nadella answers call to speak on CAA, 'I think what’s happening is sad. It’s just bad.'</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/retail/news/thousands-of-angry-indians-are-planning-to-disrupt-a-visit-from-jeff-bezos-by-staging-mass-protests-over-amazons-disruption-of-retail/articleshow/73241576.cms">Thousands of angry Indians are planning to disrupt a visit from Jeff Bezos by staging mass protests over Amazon's disruption of retail</a>

Bezos’ India visit and a billion-dollar business ⁠— many reasons why Microsoft may have had to retract Satya Nadella’s statement on India’s new citizenship law

Largely dependent on irrigation, Indian agriculture would be badly hurt by this year’s monsoon. Hit by El Nino, the monsoon could end up as among the worst three in last three decades. A fear of weak harvest and food inflation already looming large, the season's rainfall deficit has widened to 16 %, the weather office said. 
 
LS Rathore, director general of India <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=Meteorological" target="_BLANK￿￿￿￿">Meteorological</a> Department, said the June-September monsoon season may end with a deficit of 12-14 %. 
 
This would make it the driest monsoon seasons in several years, barring the drought years of 2002 and 2009. 
 
After a promising, forecast-defying start in June and good rainfall in July, the monsoon has weakened since end July as a strong <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=El+Nino+" target="_BLANK￿￿￿￿">El Nino</a> phenomenon has disrupted international weather patterns. 
While Southern India has witnessed an increased rainfall, most parts of the country are a victim of errant weather. 
 
Rathore said <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=rainfall" target="_BLANK￿￿￿￿">rainfall</a> will improve to some extent in the days ahead with the weather office forecasting rainfall in the east, northeast, southern states and rain-starved Maharashtra. But dry weather is predicted in most northern and western areas. 
 
So far around 44 % of the country has received deficient rainfall, while 50% had normal rain and only 6 per cent of the area saw excessive rainfall. 
 
 
Poor rainfall has also depleted water reservoirs, which provide irrigation and drinking water after the end of the monsoon season, which has raised concerns about the winter crop, which needs good soil moisture during planting along with a few winter showers and irrigation during its growth. 
 
Normal wheat sowing begins by October end and picks up in November. 
 
When rainfall shortage is 10 per cent or more in a monsoon season, it is considered as a meteorological drought year, though the authorities may not officially declare it as one until September 30 when the season ends. 
 
The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=rainfall" target="_BLANK￿￿￿￿">monsoon started retreating</a> from parts of Rajasthan last week but Rathore said the withdrawal has slowed down, as there was weather system and low pressure up to west coast cutting across peninsular bringing lot of moisture to the western region. 
 
A week after the monsoon withdrawal started, the withdrawal line of southwest monsoon continues to pass through Amritsar, Hissar, Ajmer and Barmer.

This year India's monsoons have been one of the
worst in 30yrs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The FBI said Iran had planned to assassinate Donald Trump. </li><li>It comes amid a spike in political assassinations and plots.</li></ul>When Donald Trump addressed the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-national-convention-rnc-biggest-moments-speeches-photos-2024-7">RNC convention</a> to rapturous applause this week, he wore a bandage on his ear and raised his fist in triumph.Just days earlier, he had narrowly evaded an assassin's bullet while speaking at a rally in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-butler-pennsylvania-rally-secret-service-2024-7">Pennsylvania</a>. It's not the only assassination plot believed to have targeted the former president in recent weeks. On Tuesday,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/16/politics/iran-plot-assassinate-trump-secret-service/index.html"> CNN </a>reported that security officials had uncovered an Iranian plan to kill the GOP's 2024 candidate.These are far from isolated incidents, either nationally or globally.<h2 id="f4455eb0-ad62-4ad7-824a-6d7cca3c6b28">A wave of violence against political leaders</h2>Around the world, politics has been rocked by a wave of assassinations of political leaders, dissidents, and other high-profile figures.In the UK, political assassinations were once rare, but two members of parliament were assassinated in five years. Member of Parliament Jo Cox was killed in 2016 amid the Brexit referendum, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/conservative-mp-david-amess-stabbed-report-2021-10">Sir David Amess in 2021 by an Islamic extremist.</a>In May, Slovakian<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/cowardly-and-dastardly-act-pm-modi-condemns-attack-on-slovak-pm-fico-wishes-him-a-speedy-recovery/articleshow/110164825.cms"> Prime Minister Robert Fico </a>narrowly survived being shot by a would-be assassin, and Russian opposition leader Alexander Navalny died in prison in February in what many observers believe was a killing ordered by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-said-navalny-death-sad-event-but-such-is-life-2024-3">Russia's President Vladimir Putin. </a>The Kremlin denied the accusations.Last year, former <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-updates-japans-former-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-shot-2022-7">Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe</a>, Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, and Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic were assassinated.Dissidents have also been targeted. The assassination of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-murder-of-jamal-khashoggi-2019-10">Saudi Arabian dissident Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Turkey</a> in 2018 was, according to the CIA, likely committed on the direct orders of Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman. Saudi Arabia said the allegations were "'negative, false, and unacceptable."<h2 id="5ff4d59d-08a3-4531-814e-0c1d63183db1">Political violence is on the rise</h2><div type="image" title="khashoggi" height="1333" width="2000" msid="111842518" hostid="261" sizebytes="99874"></div>Though data on the frequency of political assassinations is hard to come by, studies do indicate a spike in the number of ideologically motivated killings being committed globally.According to the University of<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?expanded=no&amp;casualties_type=b&amp;casualties_max=&amp;dtp2=all&amp;success=yes&amp;attack=1&amp;ob=GTDID&amp;od=desc&amp;page=1&amp;count=100#results-table"> Maryland's Global Terrorism Database</a>, the number of political assassinations rose steadily from fewer than 100 in 1999 to 900 in 2015 and around 600 in 2020 (the last year where data is available.)Bruce Hoffman, an expert on terrorism at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Business Insider that rising political violence is the outcome of increasing global instability.And the violence, he said, is the "ineluctable outcome of the factors producing the rising global instability — namely, the growing political polarization leading to extremism that we see in a variety of western democracies and the collapse in confidence of the liberal democratic state leading to the growing embrace extremist or authoritarian solutions.""Finally, there is the rise in mistrust and lack of confidence in elected leaders — all of which has created the rising global instability," said Hoffman.It's worth noting that the motivation of the would-be Trump assassin in Pennsylvania remains unknown. According to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/trump-shooting-crooks-motive.html">New York Time</a>s, the shooter had searched for images of Trump, President Joe Biden, Attorney General Merrick Garland, and FBI Director Christopher Wray on his cellphones and other electronic devices.But other assassination plots have had very clear political motivations. In 2020, a plot targeting Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was formed by far-right militia members, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/paul-pelosi-attacker-david-depape-sentence-terrorism-2024-5">Paul Pelosi, the husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,</a> was attacked in 2022 by a hammer-wielding assailant who'd promoted right-wing conspiracy theories.The plots aren't confined to the far-right, with a gunman who'd espoused left-wing views opening fire and injuring conservative lawmakers at a baseball event in Washington, DC, in 2017.Tommy Mair, the man responsible for murdering UK MP Jo Cox, had also promoted far-right views, while the Fico assassination attempt is believed to have been committed for political reasons.<h2 id="034c2068-5445-4e6a-8220-5f1be0bb7c06">State-backed assassinations spread chaos</h2><div type="image" title="Fico assassination" height="682" width="1024" msid="111842517" hostid="261" sizebytes="38552"></div>Another factor behind the spike in assassinations is the increasing instability of the global political order.Assassinations ordered or committed by nation-states are on the rise amid intensifying competition, an erosion of the norms that governed international politics, and a perceived waning of US power.States such as India and Saudi Arabia are aggressively asserting themselves.Incidents such as the Khashoggi killing may once have sparked severe repercussions, but the US needs strong Saudi ties to maintain its power in the Middle East. It's not just US allies, but enemies that are exploiting the confusion.The Trump assassination wasn't the only one being allegedly planned by Iran on US soil, with Trump administration <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-bolton-embarrassed-low-price-300000-assassination-iran-irgc-2022-8">figures such as John Bolton </a>and leading dissidents also targeted.Hoffman pointed to another pattern behind recent state-sponsored plots in the US: They're often planned in US election years to evade repercussions."Foreign countries believe opportunistically they can perhaps escape retribution by striking in an election year," he said.<h2 id="83e84d11-cf22-4db5-b35e-5bbc6443340d">New technology makes assassinations easier</h2>New technology is making assassinations easier, with one Russian plot against Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy involving exploding drones that don't require the assassin to get close to the target. It's an echo of the plot to kill Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro with drones in 2018.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://gnet-research.org/2022/06/23/the-future-is-now-the-use-of-3d-printed-guns-by-extremists-and-terrorists/">According to experts,</a> terrorists are increasingly using 3D printed guns. A home-assembled firearm was used to kill Abe to evade Japanese gun control laws.The motives of political assassins, say experts, are varied. Some believe they can tip the balance in elections, others are acting on the orders of authoritarian governments to intimidate dissidents, while some are acts of war to eliminate crucial figures in an enemy government or military.But a core motivation for some, argue Hoffman and analyst Jacob <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/the-accelerating-threat-of-the-political-assassination/">Ware in a 2022 article,</a> is to accelerate global chaos and violence."For extremists seeking to sow chaos and speed up some cataclysmic societal collapse, high-profile politicians provide an attractive target" as they embody the order the assassins want to destroy, they said.

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