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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In his first term, Donald Trump ramped up military actions to counter China in the South China Sea.</li><li>Four years later, China has grown more confrontational, leaving less margin for error.</li></ul>As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to office, one of his biggest challenges could be an issue that hardly came up on the campaign trail.The South China Sea — contested waters that China says are its own and the US says belong to no single nation — has only grown as a risk factor in the years Trump was out of government.During his first term, Trump's administration took a hard line against China, stepping up its patrols and exercises in the region, and rejecting Chinese territorial claims.Since then, China has expanded its presence in the region, growing more willing to confront other countries there, including the Philippines, an ally the US is treaty-bound to defend."The margin for error has shrunk since 2016-2020," said Hunter Marston, an Asia-Pacific researcher at the Australian National University."It would now take less of a spark for a skirmish or collision to trigger a conflict involving all parties," he said.<h2 id="26704ad2-dec7-4144-a34a-9f5597d2ab7e">A vital ally</h2>Trump hasn't said how he would handle the region in his second term as president.South China Sea observers expect continuity with the Biden administration, which tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Gregory Poling, director of Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that Trump "introduces a level of personal unpredictability compared to Biden.""But there is no reason to expect any major changes to US policies on this front."<h2 id="fef0cfd6-98da-4aac-a5b1-2e1ac4fe2670">A delicate balance to strike</h2>Trump, like President Joe Biden before him, has a delicate balance to navigate.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese and Filipino coast guard vessels, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">including one</a> where swords and knives were brandished.<div type="image" title="Chinese Coast Guard holding knives and machetes as they approach Philippine troops in the Second Thomas Shoal at the disputed South China Sea" height="2374" width="3165" msid="115257414" hostid="261" sizebytes="149654"></div>Under a treaty from 1951, the US is obliged to aid the Philippines against armed attack — something China has avoided through so-called <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a> that are not technically "armed."The Filipino secretary of national defense told CBS News' <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">"60 Minutes"</a> in September that there were ongoing discussions about exactly what would prompt US intervention.Though Trump hasn't outlined a specific South China Sea plan, he could pursue his broader foreign policy mantra of "peace through strength."That brings its own risks."Unrestrained US militarization is precisely what drives Beijing's insecurity and will continue to exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea," Marston said.<h2 id="96ada877-488a-45fb-9d45-6c143317081e">An alliance at stake</h2>Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the UK's Royal United Services Institute specializing in China, said Trump would need to decide how much to commit to the region."To be globally influential, the US needs its allies," she said.Trump has often adopted a skeptical posture toward alliances he deemed unfair to the US — including its roles in helping the defense of Europe, its support for Ukraine, and its military commitments in South Korea.<div type="image" title="President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center on November 06, 2024" height="4000" width="6000" msid="115257416" hostid="261" sizebytes="444246"></div>Zeno Leoni, a lecturer at King's College London's Defense Studies Department, believes US economic interests in the South China Sea make the region an exception.A yearlong conflict in East Asia, which covers the South China Sea, could result in a 5-10% loss of US GDP, according to a 2016 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html">research report</a> by the Rand Corporation, a prominent think tank.Leoni believes the Trump administration will try to achieve balance."Both Trump's and Biden's National Security Strategy prioritized tackling the rise of China, and this is unlikely to change in the context of a more isolationist foreign policy," he said.

Trump's first term avoided a fight in the South China Sea. It's only getting harder.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Middle East is anticipating strikes on the anniversary of the October 7 terror attacks. </li><li>Israeli offensives have targeted several Middle Eastern regions, including Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.</li></ul>The Middle East is on high alert for military strikes timed to coincide with the first anniversary of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-goal-october-7-attack-israel-gaza-war-2023-11">October 7 terror attacks on Israel.</a>On this day last year, Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel throughout 22 different border communities that killed more than 1,200 people and left 250 taken hostage.The Israeli response to the attacks was one of the deadliest in the history of Gaza. It launched a series of air strikes and a ground invasion of Gaza that killed 41,600 Palestinians in a year, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ochaopt.org/content/one-year-unimaginable-suffering-7-october-attack">Gaza Health Ministry. </a>On Monday, memorials were held across Israel to mark the anniversary. "We're still stuck in October 7th, 2023, in one unending day of terror, of fear, of anger, of despair," Yuval Baron, whose father-in-law Keith Siegel is a hostage in Gaza, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-marks-oct-7-anniversary-under-shadow-escalating-war-2024-10-07/">Reuters</a>.According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-marks-oct-7-anniversary-under-shadow-escalating-war-2024-10-07/">the news wire</a>, some Palestinians with entry permits to Israel were unable to enter the country on Monday.Military spokesperson Adm. Daniel Hagari said: "We are ready with increased forces in anticipation for this day."In Iran, airports were temporarily closed on Sunday amid fears that Israel could strike infrastructure facilities in response to its missile attacks last week.Meanwhile, Hezbollah said its rockets hit a military base south of Haifa in the first direct strike on Israel's third-largest city. Israeli media said 10 people were injured.Fifteen other rockets were fired at the Israeli city of Tiberias, according to Israeli officials.In the early hours of the anniversary of the attacks, the IDF <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/idfofficial/10912">posted on Telegram</a> that five projectiles were fired into Israel from Gaza.Elsewhere, the IDF said in a statement that soldiers of its 91st Division had begun "localized and targeted operational activity in southern Lebanon," which has been rocked by bombings in the last two weeks.Israel's military also intensified its air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon, including Hezbollah intelligence targets and a Hezbollah weapons storage facility in the area of Beirut.It said it killed Khader Ali Tawil, a Hezbollah commander believed to be behind an attack on the Israeli town of Kfar Yuval in January.Georgios Petropoulos, head of the UN Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) suboffice in Gaza, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-attack-anniversary-war-11-07-24-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a> that he was "woken up by renewed bombing here in Rafah, Gaza on Monday. "The only thing that's left in Gaza, would say is hope. Our supplies are almost zero."Since the Hamas incursion last year, Israel has stepped up attacks on Gaza, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. It also promised to strike Iran in response to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-potential-counterattack-iran-options-assasinations-oil-nuclear-military-bases-2024-10">ballistic missile attack on Israel</a> last week.Israel's escalating offensive on Lebanon has left 2,000 dead, per Lebanon's Health Ministry. The BBC estimated about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lebanon-israel-invasion-flee-bombings-hezbollah-refugee-2024-9">a million people have been displaced</a> following the attacks.There are fears the conflict could escalate into a full-blown war in the Middle East. That could <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>.With oil prices rising, the industrial recession the US economy is experiencing could snowball into a full-fledged downturn."Oil prices spiking, energy prices spiking in the past, have been enough to tip the economy from a slowing into a recession," Jake Oubina, a Piper Sandler economist, said last week in an interview with <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0-dWISdBvs">Fox Business</a>.

The Middle East is on high alert for October 7 anniversary attacks as Israel intensifies strikes on Gaza and Lebanon

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US has played a key role in countering China in the South China Sea.</li><li>But any intensified US efforts could trigger a confrontation, experts told BI.</li></ul>The US has played an active security role in the South China Sea in recent years, but with China increasingly confrontational in the region, things could come to a head.US ships and aircraft have repeatedly operated within the wide expanse claimed by China to assert international rights to navigation, carried out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/US7thFleet/status/1834396679216181394">military</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/indopacom/status/1836389721502568770?s=46&amp;t=o-gfid_uWzVLqbUuvoCCsg">exercises</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1834577777598894323">with</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836163226528350500">regional</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1835438447907295450">allies</a>, and <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/01/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-the-united-states-and-the-philippines/">reaffirmed</a> its <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3836245/track-record-and-trajectory-us-philippine-defense-ties-since-2021-remarks-by-as/">commitments</a> to regional partners.It has also <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836525608056033674">helped</a> Southeast Asian countries to <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828775660015522069">modernize</a> their militaries and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828653505885938023">deepen</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836666038475489463">ties</a> with countries pursuing similar security goals.However, some Asia regional analysts warn that any further attempt to intensify US efforts in the contested waters could agitate regional partners, trigger China's ire, and backfire on the US and its partners."The last thing that any Southeast Asian country wants is for this to spill over into an active conflict," Bill Hayton, an associate fellow with Chatham House's Asia-Pacific program, told Business Insider.On the other hand, a US pullback would enable China to bully its smaller neighbors in ways that could also trigger a military clash.They "want a Goldilocks situation in the South China Sea — not too hot, not too cold," he added.<div type="image" title="A China Coast Guard ship (R) sailed past the Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Cape Engaño (L) during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea on August 26, 2024." height="2000" width="3000" msid="114167295" hostid="261" sizebytes="189602"></div><h2 id="9deb4483-b117-443f-9cc5-4db4f72459bc">Keeping a balance</h2>Southeast Asian leaders have tried to keep a balance between the US and China through ASEAN, a political and economic union of 10 countries with the stated <a target="_blank" href="https://asean.org/what-we-do#asean-aims">goal</a> of "promoting regional peace and stability."ASEAN held its annual summit in Laos this week, in part to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/asean-summit-laos-myanmar-south-china-sea-254fe0f7f8b484df5bdb05c0557fccd6">discuss</a> territorial tensions in the South China Sea. China has made expansive and legally dubious claims to nearly all of the sea, which is a major shipping route and boasts natural resources like fish and oil fields.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese coast guard vessels and ones from the Philippines, including one <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">encounter</a> where swords and knives were brandished and a Filipino soldier reportedly lost a thumb.Speaking at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-the-asean-summit-with-the-united-states/">ASEAN summit</a>, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Southeast Asian leaders that the US was concerned about China's "increasingly dangerous and unlawful" activities in the disputed waters."The United States will continue to support freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight in the Indo-Pacific," he added.The US is the only military with the size and sophistication to push back on China's forces, however, any US attempt to step up its role in the region could affect the delicate balance.Hunter Marston, a Ph.D. candidate in international relations at the Australian National University in the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, said all 10 ASEAN countries have their own security interests and different views about the US' role in the region.While countries that keep close ties to the US, like Singapore, the Philippines, and to some extent Vietnam, would be "very" supportive of increased US security in the region, other countries that fear a larger US military presence in the South China Sea, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and perhaps Cambodia, would be "more vocally" opposed to it, he said.Another aspect is that China's wide claims don't directly affect Indonesia and Cambodia, meaning they have less to lose.<div type="image" title="An infographic of the disputed South China Sea on January 06, 2023." height="4138" width="5697" msid="114167294" hostid="261" sizebytes="390018"></div><h2 id="1c59d1ef-370d-4010-a9b6-a8ba1510690f">A bipartisan issue</h2>Ramping up the US security role in the South China Sea without upsetting the balance of power is "a challenge that dates back to at least the Bush administration," Marston said, referring to the administration of George W. Bush.Following 9/11, the Bush administration <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41311-023-00486-0#Fn5">stepped up</a> its security involvement in the region by strengthening the US military presence there and increasing diplomatic ties with key ASEAN nations.The Obama administration then pursued a policy of strategic "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacific">rebalancing</a>," with the underlying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pafo.12115">goal</a> of preventing China from becoming the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region.The Trump administration took a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/08/from-pivot-to-defiance-american-policy-shift-in-the-south-china-sea/">harder line</a>, stepping up its freedom of navigation patrols, conducting naval exercises in the region, and at one point <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csp.navy.mil/Media/News-Admin/Article/2186392/pacific-fleet-submarines-lethal-agile-underway/">deploying</a> all of its forward-deployed nuclear attack submarines into the Western Pacific.Marston said the Biden administration has adopted elements of Obama's policy and tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Yet, China has remained undeterred in its efforts to dominate the contested islands, and has grown more aggressive in encounters with regional claimants, notably the Philippines."It's really plagued multiple administrations," Martson said.<h2 id="5c410507-89c1-4bdb-b90b-5027be104561">A polarized region</h2>Gregory B. Poling, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told BI that the South China Sea has served as a "wedge" within ASEAN because only four out of 10 countries have a direct stake in it."Frankly, a lot of them would rather the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia just give up their rights in order to make this issue go away so they can get back to trading and investing with China," he said.According to Chatham House's Hayton, increased US intervention could further split the alliance and also potentially drag the US into a conflict with China that jeopardizes Southeast Asian countries' economies.The US might be called in to help enforce <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3738629/war-with-china-a-view-from-early-2024/">freedom of navigation</a> or defend its partners in the event of a military confrontation between China and its neighbors.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">Adm. Samuel Paparo</a>, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, hinted at this last August, saying the US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels in the South China Sea following clashes with China in recent months.Even without a boosted US presence, the US could be dragged into a regional confrontation via its partners.At a minimum, Hayton said a conflict would trigger disruptions to shipping, supply lines, and supply chains and hurt the region's economic growth, "even before we start to think about military actions."A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2016_en.pdf">estimated</a> to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28048/w28048.pdf">working paper</a> by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.<h2 id="aba6b3de-fedf-479e-9f6f-ff50a1a9a19a">Escalating tensions</h2>Tensions in the region have been escalating over the past few months, especially between China and the Philippines.A month after the armed encounter, China's largest coastguard vessel <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijings-monster-coastguard-ship-ramps-up-tensions-south-china-sea-2024-7">dropped anchor</a> in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and in August, a Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1828077854539874574">said</a> China had deployed 40 vessels to block the delivery of supplies to its soldiers stationed in the contested Sabina Shoal.Earlier this week, the Philippines <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bfar.da.gov.ph/2024/10/09/da-bfar-statement-on-the-recent-ccg-water-cannon-incident-in-bajo-de-masinloc/">said</a> three Chinese Coast Guard vessels and a navy ship fired water cannons toward two civilian vessels while they were on a routine resupply mission in the West Philippine Sea.<div type="image" title="A Philippine coast guard vessel and a Chinese coast guard vessel during an incident in&#xa0;the South&#xa0;China&#xa0;Sea on August 19, 2024." height="1125" width="2000" msid="114167292" hostid="261" sizebytes="36066"></div>Poling described these as "the most violent months in the South China Sea since 1988," and added that the Philippines' "natural" response would be to seek help from its treaty ally, the US.Under a Mutual Defense <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20177/volume-177-I-2315-English.pdf">Treaty</a> signed in 1951, the US must come to the Philippines' aid in the event of an armed attack — something China has carefully avoided by conducting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a>.In an interview with CBS News <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">60 Minutes</a> last month, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro said that there were ongoing discussions about what scenarios would prompt the US to get involved.Meanwhile, according to Poling, China's official position is that everything the Philippines does is because the US made it do it."That's one of the things that makes this so hard to deescalate," he said.A war with China in the South China Sea is a prospect the US would likely want to avoid at all costs, given the ongoing conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East."But there's no world in which the US can sit on the sidelines, watch China potentially kill Filipinos in Philippine waters, and do nothing," Poling added.

Efforts by the US to counter China in the South China Sea could backfire

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19916007" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="South-Korea" source="keywords">South Korea</keyword> says North Korean troops are being trained by <keyword id="19895159" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="keywords">Russia</keyword> to fight in Ukraine.</li><li>The <keyword id="19900701" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kremlin" source="keywords">Kremlin</keyword> said the cooperation between the two was "within the framework of international law."</li></ul>The Kremlin's alliance with <keyword id="19910206" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="North-Korea" source="keywords">North Korea</keyword> may have bolstered its campaign in Ukraine, but it's come at a potentially serious cost. South Korea's government this week signaled its fury over the growing alliance between the two countries. In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241021004252315?section=national/diplomacy">meeting</a> with Russia ambassador Georgiy Zinoviev, South Korea demanded the withdrawal of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">North Korean soldiers which it said were being trained by Russia to fight in Ukraine.</a> A senior official in the office of <keyword id="19905053" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Yoon-Suk-Yeol" source="keywords">Yoon Suk Yeol</keyword>, South Korea's president, said on Tuesday that South Korea is now mulling sending weapons to help <keyword id="20506587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ukrainian-troops" source="keywords">Ukrainian troops</keyword>, reports said. In response, the Kremlin seemed eager to reassure South Korea. Zinoviev said the alliance between Russia and North Korea was "within the framework of international law." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the North Korea-Russia alliance "should not worry anyone." He also dismissed reports of the troop deployment as "contradictory." Earlier that day South Korea had placed pressure on the Kremlin, releasing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/south-korean-satellite-confirms-1-500-dprk-special-forces-deployment-to-russia/ar-AA1sAYVp">satellite images that </a>it said showed 1,500 North Korean military personnel being sent to Russia. Analysts at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-21-2024">Insitute for the Study of War, a US think tank,</a> said that the Kremlin appears worried about the backlash from Seoul. "The Kremlin's apparent desire to assure South Korea that its cooperation with North Korea is not a threat to Seoul suggests that the Kremlin remains very concerned about the prospect of Seoul's potential pivot towards providing Ukraine with necessary military support, and the implications of worsened relations with Seoul for Russian security interests in the Asia Pacific region," its analysts wrote on Monday. <div type="image" title="Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin share a toast at a banquet table." height="859" width="1341" msid="114472694" hostid="261"></div><h2>Russia's dangerous new alliance</h2>For decades, South Korea has been in an uneasy standoff with its isolated and authoritarian neighbor, North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has repeatedly menaced the South with the prospect of attack, while Seoul and its ally, the US, have sought to isolate North Korea and stymie its nuclear weapons program. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shaken the precarious balance of power in East Asia. Russia formed a new military alliance with North Korea to secure badly needed ammunition from North Korean stockpiles for its faltering campaign in Ukraine. South Korea is increasingly concerned about the technological capabilities and security guarantees North Korea has likely gained from Russia in return. Russia, previously a backer of sanctions designed to curtail North Korea's nuclear program, is now helping North Korea evade them. Analysts from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-korea-war-threatens-trillions-for-global-economy/">Bloomberg said in June </a>a war on the Korean peninsula could result in the loss of millions of human lives, and cost the global economy around $4 trillion. South Korea is a semiconductor and electronics manufacturing hub, meaning a disruption to its economy could have massive knock-on global effects. "The Ukraine war and its spillover to the Korean peninsula are taking a hard toll on the Seoul-Moscow relationship," wrote analyst Ellen Kim of the Center<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/seoul-moscow-relations-dangerous-slippery-slope"> for Strategic and International Studies in February.</a> Noting that "several factors could push the ROK-Russia [South Korea-Russia] relations off the cliff." <h2>South Korea says it could arm Ukraine</h2>In response to Russia's strengthened relationship with North Korea, South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in its battle against the Russian invasion. Russia's new defense treaty with North Korea in June seemed to mark a tipping point, with South Korea saying that it could overturn its long-standing ban on sending military assistance to countries at war to help Ukraine. It's a threat South Korea reiterated Tuesday, as officials from South Korea's National Security Council warned that the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia was a "grave security threat." It's a worrying prospect for Russia, with South Korea holding vast stockpiles of weapons that could help tip the war in Kyiv's favor. South Korea has large numbers of 155-millimeter artillery shells, a weapon Ukraine has been desperately short of and that its Western allies have struggled to produce in sufficient quantities. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/world/asia/leak-pentagon-south-korea-ukraine.html">The New York Times in 2023</a> reported that President Joe Biden has pressured South Korea to help it arm Ukraine with desperately needed shells, but South Korea had at that point hesistated. But in response to the latest escalation in North Korea's collaboration with Russia, South Korea again hinted that nothing was off the table as it weighed how to respond. South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong Kyun said in a statement Monday that the country would respond with "all available means in cooperation with the international community to any acts that threaten the core interests of South Korea." Correction: October 23, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the source describing South Korea's plans. It was a senior official in the office of President Yoon Suk Yeol; not an official named Yoon Suk Yeol.

Russia's friendship with North Korea may have backfired

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's navy conducted its first dual-carrier drills this month in the South China Sea.</li><li>Photos show its two operational aircraft carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, sailing together.</li></ul>China's People's Liberation Army Navy conducted its first-ever dual carrier operation this month, flexing new muscles as it builds a fleet of aircraft carriers and an ever-larger naval force.Photos from the recent exercise showed China's two operational aircraft carriers, escort ships, and fighter jets in the South China Sea.China announced the drills on Thursday, releasing photos showing the Liaoning and Shandong carrier groups.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-image-chinese-aircraft-carriers-hainan-base-south-china-sea-2024-10">two carriers were spotted</a> in early October sitting pier-side together in the South China Sea after several weeks of separate drills and activities, and earlier this month, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sent-warplanes-ships-first-aircraft-carrier-to-surround-taiwan-2024-10">Liaoning participated in massive military drills aimed at intimidating Taiwan</a>.<div type="image" title="Two Chinese aircraft carriers and various warships sail in dark blue water. Above them, two formations of fighter jets fly against a cloudy sky." height="3827" width="5740" msid="114824176" hostid="261" sizebytes="494550"></div>Recent training occurred in the Yellow Sea and East and South China Seas. The two carriers and the other warships worked to enhance combat-ready forces and readiness, China's navy said.In the photos, the carriers are accompanied by almost a dozen vessels and fighter jets conducting flight operations. The aircraft are Shenyang J-15s, China's current carrier-based fighters.In the images, there appear to be different variants of the jet on display. Beyond efforts to improve the J-15 fighter, which is a Flanker-style aircraft, China is also working on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-tested-next-gen-j-35-fighter-jet-aircraft-carrier-2024-9">next-generation carrier-based fighter jet</a> as it moves on from the Soviet-style carrier design to more modern flattops.The Liaoning and Shandong, China's first two aircraft carriers, feature ski jumps for launching aircraft. The Liaoning was built from the stripped hulk of an unfinished Soviet-era Kuznetsov-class carrier that China purchased in the late 1990s. While it officially entered service in 2012, it wasn't deemed combat-ready until 2016.<div type="image" title="Chinese aircraft carriers, warships, and fighter jets are located in the blue waters of the South China Sea." height="2907" width="4948" msid="114824174" hostid="261" sizebytes="1496818"></div>The Shandong is China's first domestically produced aircraft carrier, although it's still based on Liaoning's design. The Shandong, however, features the ability to carry a larger air wing than Liaoning, specifically more of China's carrier-based J-15 fighter jets. It was commissioned into the PLAN in 2019.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-more-to-learn-to-match-us-2024-5">China's newest aircraft carrier</a> and the second domestically produced carrier<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-more-to-learn-to-match-us-2024-5">, the Fujian</a>, is a marked improvement over its two predecessors, featuring an advanced electromagnetic catapult launch system for aircraft, similar to the kind used on the US Navy's new Ford-class carriers. This new vessel hasn't entered active duty yet and has been undergoing sea trials.Per the PLAN, the Liaoning and Shandong's dual carrier drills included training for multiple real-combat scenarios involving their warship groups, including generating sorties.<div type="image" title="A Chinese aircraft carrier sails forward in blue water with other vessels in the background." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114823988" hostid="261" sizebytes="1213274"></div>In concert with its efforts to build a world-class military, China has aggressively pursued naval modernization efforts, bolstering its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-shipbuilding-power-players-making-warships-at-a-rapid-pace-2024-9">domestic shipbuilding capabilities and capacity for both commercial and military vessels</a>.Its naval buildup, characterized by notable increases in both quantity and quality, has been noted by the US as a point of concern as the Pentagon attempts to shift its focus towards <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-training-to-counter-aggressive-insidious-china-top-general-2024-2">deterring and countering growing Chinese military power in the Indo-Pacific region</a>.By 2030, the US Department of Defense expects the PLAN to have an overall battle force of 435 ships, with a substantial increase in "major surface combatants."

China's navy flexed new muscles in the South China Sea with its first dual aircraft carrier drills

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US has plans to send more soldiers to the Middle East, NBC News reported.</li><li>They will be ready to evacuate US civilians if fighting threatens them, defense officials said.</li></ul>The US is planning to send more troops to the Middle East in the coming days in case American citizens need to evacuate the region, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-send-troops-ready-help-evacuate-us-citizens-lebanon-rcna172367">NBC News</a> reported, citing three defense officials.A few dozen additional soldiers will be added to the roughly 40,000 US troops already present in the region, according to the publication.It comes after Lebanon had its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-strikes-lebanon-hezbollah-posts-warns-civilians-move-away-2024-9">deadliest day</a> for decades on Monday after Israel ramped up strikes on the country.Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder commented on the development during a press <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3914549/pentagon-press-secretary-maj-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-off-camera-on-the-record-pr/#:~:text=MAJOR%20GENERAL%20RYDER%3A%20No%20significant,are%20already%20in%20the%20region.">briefing</a> on Monday."In light of increased tension in the Middle East and out of an abundance of caution, we are sending a small number of additional US military personnel forward to augment our forces that are already in the region," he said.He declined to comment or give more specifics, citing operational security reasons.Tensions have been simmering in the region, where clashes between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-pushed-hezbollah-corner-may-trigger-an-all-out-war-2024-9">intensified</a> over the weekend.Israeli Defense Forces said they were intensifying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-strikes-lebanon-hezbollah-posts-warns-civilians-move-away-2024-9">targeted strikes</a> on Hezbollah positions and warned civilians in Lebanon to stay away from potential Hezbollah targets for their "own safety."According to an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.facebook.com/mophleb/posts/pfbid0xvrzviXNDshhMAAJoNZekGXwpamr3BFTVKcn9jTXeFWHcwc7UoRweKiDTjMfRngNl">update</a> by Lebanon's health ministry, at least 492 people were killed, and another 1,645 were injured in the south of the country on Monday.On Sunday, Naim Qassem, a leader of the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia, said the group had entered a "battle of reckoning" with Israel.<h2 id="1ca0810b-d9c7-4772-9716-acdbc61d7130">Preventing a war</h2>Since the Hamas' October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel, the US has stepped up its military and diplomatic efforts in the region to serve as deterrence and prevent an all-out war.US officials told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2024/09/22/as-conflict-looms-where-are-us-forces-in-the-middle-east/">Military Times</a> that at least a dozen warships and four Air Force fighter jet squadrons were deployed across the region to protect allies and deter attacks.On Monday, the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, two Navy destroyers, and a guided-missile cruiser <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usff.navy.mil/Press-Room/News-Stories/Article/3914118/">headed</a> to the Sixth Fleet area in Europe on a regularly scheduled deployment.State Secretary Antony Blinken, meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://il.usembassy.gov/secretary-blinken-is-on-travel-to-israel-egypt-and-qatar/">has</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-travel-to-israel/">traveled</a> to the region <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-travel-to-france-egypt-israel-jordan-qatar-and-italy/">several times</a> over the last few months to help partners strike a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ceasefire-talks-ongoing-as-israel-forces-occupy-rafah-gaza-crossing-2024-5">cease-fire deal</a> between Hamas and Israel.In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3914549/pentagon-press-secretary-maj-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-off-camera-on-the-record-pr/">two calls</a> with his Israeli counterpart over the weekend, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin "stressed the importance of finding a path to a diplomatic solution that will allow residents on both sides of the border to return to their homes as quickly and safely as possible, as well as reaching a Gaza cease-fire deal that will bring all the hostages home."President Joe Biden <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/09/22/remarks-by-president-biden-after-marine-one-arrival-26/">said</a> on Sunday that the US is doing "everything we can" to prevent a wider war in the Middle East."And we're still pushing hard," he added.<h2 id="ac5b0456-1b3a-482c-87a8-70175890ae46">It may be too late</h2>According to experts, the deaths of dozens of people caused by the explosions of handheld radios and pagers in Lebanon last week and Israel's intensifying airstrikes make <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-pushed-hezbollah-corner-may-trigger-an-all-out-war-2024-9">Hezbollah's retaliation</a> likely.Filippo Dionigi, a senior lecturer on international relations at the University of Bristol, told BI on Monday these attacks "make a greater reaction inevitable to the net of any self-restraining stance."Eugene Rogan, a professor of modern Middle Eastern history at the University of Oxford, said the barrage of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, coupled with the dozens of people murdered and thousands injured by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-hezbollah-pager-walkie-talkies-explosion-supply-chain-infilitration-2024-9">detonating bombs</a> last week, "make for too many blows for Hezbollah to accept without reprisal.""Under the circumstances, the region would appear to be on the brink of all-out war in Lebanon," Rogan added.

The US is sending more troops to the Middle East to help US citizens flee as Israel-Hezbollah clashes intensify

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US Navy has no aircraft carriers in the Pacific as focus remains on the Middle East.</li><li>The absence raises some concerns amid tensions in the region and continued Chinese aggression.</li></ul>The US Navy currently has no aircraft carriers deployed in the Pacific as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East demand the military's attention.The carrier gap in US naval power in what the Pentagon has said is a priority region raises some potential concerns about whether the force posture matches stated priorities, especially as China throws its weight around, alarming US allies and partners.The Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrived in the Middle East last week, joining the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which has been in the area since the beginning of the month.Both of the carrier strike groups came from the Pacific, and the Pentagon has said that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-carrier-strike-groups-significant-combat-power-middle-east-2024-8">both will remain in Middle East for an undisclosed amount of time</a>. Their deployments follow two others by East Coast-based carriers to the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-fourth-aircraft-carrier-warships-react-middle-east-fighting-2024-8">response to the ongoing crises</a>.The latest deployment marks the first time two US carrier strike groups have operated together in the Middle East since 2020. It is also a strong signal of US support for Israel and is intended as a deterrence against Iran and its proxies. And it came at a perilous time as the region braces for further violence and unrest.<div type="image" title="An E-2C Hawkeye descends on an aircraft elevator on a US Navy aircraft carrier." height="667" width="1000" msid="112877091" hostid="261" sizebytes="21792"></div>But the move has left the Pacific without a deployed aircraft carrier, a powerful combat platform and a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-wants-to-build-aircraft-carriers-2024-6">visible symbol of American naval power</a> that reflects US interests and security commitments in priority regions.US aircraft carriers and the other warships in their strike groups bring a tremendous amount of firepower to any situation, making them formidable power projection assets that represent the military's reach and readiness.All of the US West Coast-based carriers are in port or currently unavailable. The USS Ronald Reagan, which was home-ported in Japan for nine years as the Navy's only forward-deployed carrier, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uss-ronald-reagan-aircraft-carrier-ends-yearslong-pacific-stint-2024-5">was recently redeployed</a> back to the States. And the replacement, the USS George Washington, remains in San Diego for the time being.Asked about how long the US military expects not to have an aircraft carrier in the region and whether the absence of carriers is concerning, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said that the Indo-Pacific was still the US' primary focus, a statement consistent with Pentagon rhetoric consistently identifying China as a "pacing challenge" for the military.<div type="image" title="Aircraft on the USS Theodore Roosevelt." height="2572" width="3600" msid="112877094" hostid="261" sizebytes="366072"></div>"You know, as we look at global force management and as we look at requirements around the world in support of our national security interests, we're always taking great care to make sure that we can cover those commitments to include, in our priority theater, which is the Indo-Pacific region," Ryder told reporters on Tuesday."So we have a significant amount of capability there to include a large naval presence," he added.Earlier this month, Ryder took a similar question about whether the Pentagon could posture forces in both the Pacific and Middle East at the same time.He said that "the thing about the US military, as you're seeing this week, is that we have the ability to surge forces and capabilities to where we need them, when we need them.""The Indo-Pacific Command continues to be our priority theater, and that is indicative of the number of forces that we have that are located within the region," Ryder said.Bryan Clark, a former naval officer and current defense expert at the Hudson Institute, told Business Insider "the inability of the US to maintain more than one carrier in the Pacific, short of a wartime surge, will require the Navy to rely more on amphibious ready groups and submarines to deter aggression from China or North Korea."The US Navy presently has the Boxer and America amphibious readiness groups in the Pacific, according to the USNI News fleet and maritime tracker. Submarine activities are not broadcast as clearly as those of other ships.A US Pacific Fleet spokesperson told BI that the US has "several ships operating across the Pacific to promote adherence to a rules-based international order, as well as maintain the presence and flexibility to rapidly respond to persistent and emergent missions."<div type="image" title="A US aircraft carrier sails in the Pacific Ocean with a cloudy sunset in the background." height="1474" width="2211" msid="112877093" hostid="261" sizebytes="76930"></div>The recent changes in the force posture of US naval power come amid rising tensions in the Pacific, particularly as China continues its aggressive behavior.On Monday, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-military-spy-plane-violated-japans-airspace-2024-8">Chinese military spy plane violated Japanese airspace for the first time</a>, and China also continues to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">confront Philippine vessels and aircraft in the South China Sea</a>. It has also been upping its pressure on Taiwan, continuing to trigger concerns about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-could-quickly-seize-key-islands-from-taiwan-2024-8">quarantine</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-drills-a-test-as-well-as-show-of-force-2024-5">potential blockade,</a> or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">invasion</a>.The US military serves as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-not-ready-china-war-military-economy-2023-5">security guarantor</a> for Taiwan and American allies in the Indo-Pacific region. As tensions rise, so do the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5">risks</a>, highlighting the value of being able to maintain deterrence in this region the way it is in the Middle East. That doesn't all hinge on a carrier, but the gap is notable nonetheless.

The US Navy has no aircraft carriers deployed in Pacific as Middle East conflicts pull the Pentagon's focus from China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A satellite image shows China's two operational aircraft carriers docked together.</li><li>Liaoning and Shandong were pier-side at Sanya Naval Base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.</li></ul>A rare satellite image captured China's two fully operational <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-wants-to-build-aircraft-carriers-2024-6">aircraft carriers</a> sitting pier-side together in the South China Sea earlier this week.The carriers arrived at the naval base after several weeks of exercises in the region.Business Insider obtained the satellite image from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.blacksky.com">BlackSky</a>, a real-time, space-based intelligence company. It shows the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy's Liaoning and Shandong carriers docked at the same pier at Sanya Naval Base on Hainan Island, just east of Vietnam. <div type="image" title="A satellite image shows China's two operational aircraft carriers docked at the same naval base." height="720" width="1280" msid="114130375" hostid="261" sizebytes="35766"></div>The image was taken on Tuesday. Open-source intelligence accounts on social media also noted the rare occurrence of both carriers being seen docked together. The Liaoning, China's first carrier, was built from the stripped hulk of an unfinished Soviet-era Kuznetsov-class carrier that China purchased in the late 90s. It entered service in 2012 but was not deemed combat-ready until four years later. Given its origins, China's Liaoning resembles Russia's sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.<div type="image" title="A man stands in front of two models of China's aircraft carriers, which feature model fighter jets on them, at a museum with other exhibits and displays highlighting China's naval aviation." height="5472" width="8256" msid="114130374" hostid="261" sizebytes="5298600"></div>The Shandong, China's second carrier, is the country's first domestically-produced aircraft carrier. The ship is, however, still based on the design for the Liaoning, featuring similar characteristics, such as the ski-jump style ramp for launching planes, but also some differences, like the ability to carry a larger air wing, specifically more of China's carrier-based J-15 fighters. The vessel was commissioned into the PLAN in 2019.These ships are the predecessors to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-more-to-learn-to-match-us-2024-5">China's newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian</a>, which is not yet in active service and has been undergoing sea trials. Unlike the others, the new ship features an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-newest-aircraft-carrier-seen-with-aircraft-mock-ups-images-2024-4">advanced catapult launch system</a> akin to the kind used on the US Navy's new Ford-class carriers.<div type="image" title="A J-15 fighter taking off from aircraft carrier Shandong" height="4340" width="6509" msid="114130373" hostid="261" sizebytes="671206"></div>Prior to docking together in Sanya, the Liaoning and Shandong were operating in different waterways. In mid-September, the Liaoning was spotted sailing from the East China Sea to the Philippine Sea. It then conducted exercises in the Western Pacific involving fighter jets and helicopters.The Shandong, on the other hand, docked in Hainan after participating in drills in the South China Sea late last month. Though there has been some speculation, it is unclear if the carriers will conduct dual-carrier operations.<div type="image" title="An aerial drone photo taken on May 1, 2024 shows China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, during its maiden sea trials." height="683" width="1024" msid="114130376" hostid="261" sizebytes="74856"></div>China's naval exercises have come amid drills with Russia and clashes with its neighbors. Beijing has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">harassing and attacking Philippine vessels</a> in disputed waters, specifically around the Scarborough Shoal. The territory, which China unjustly claims, has seen increased conflict in recent months, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">Chinese vessels shooting water at and ramming Philippine ships</a>.Just this week, the Philippines accused Chinese vessels of firing water cannons at government ships taking supplies to fishermen in the area.These fights involve the white-hulled coast guard instead of the Chinese navy gray hulls, such as destroyers and aircraft carriers, that would be needed in a major maritime conflict.

Rare satellite image shows China's only two operational aircraft carriers together at a base in the South China Sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Jay Sean rose to fame in the 2000s with hits like "Down" and "Do You Remember."</li><li>He was the first South Asian artist to top the Billboard Hot 100.</li></ul>When British-Indian artist <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/artist/4pADjHPWyrlAF0FA7joK2H">Jay Sean</a> first broke into the mainstream music scene two decades ago, he felt he had no choice but to sing in English."It wasn't as alienating as Punjabi coming from a Punjabi on stage," the singer, now 43, told Business Insider. He found subtle, creative ways to express his Indian roots in his music instead. "It would either be a Bollywood sample or it would be Eastern strings, or it would be the Indian flute," he said.The world may not have been ready for Sean to sing in Punjabi, but it was ready to make him a star. By the mid-2000s, he'd become the first South Asian artist to top the Billboard Hot 100, the first South Asian artist to perform on "Top of the Pops," and the first British Asian artist to have simultaneous Top 10 Billboard singles in the US.It would take a bit longer for Punjabi music to find its groove in the West. It was only once Sean saw K-pop go mainstream, Afrobeats being played on the radio, and Pitbull rapping in Spanish that he thought, "Why can't we have our artists who are doing the same?"Now, that's finally happening. Artists like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.instagram.com/diljitdosanjh/?hl=en">Diljit Dosanjh</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/artist/6LEG9Ld1aLImEFEVHdWNSB">AP Dhillon</a> are singing and rapping in Punjabi over Western beats. And they're not just catering to a niche Indian audience — they're filling stadiums from Canada to Germany to Australia with thousands of fans and taking over late-<a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0JDN_q6RBE">night stages</a> while proudly busting out Bhangra moves.It's a very different media landscape than the one Sean and people of his generation and ethnicity, like me, grew up in. As a Pakistani who moved to the US in 2002, right after 9/11, people of my background were not exactly celebrated in Hollywood. We were cast as exotic oddities in movie franchises like Indiana Jones, or as comedic fools like Apu in "The Simpsons." The West perceived South Asians as one-dimensional when in reality, we encompass a large geographic region that includes India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan."For the longest time, I used to say if you were from another planet, you wouldn't think there's any Indians walking around anywhere," Sean said. "It was very hard to name even two or three South Asian artists in the mainstream music industry."Now, this demographic has grown so much that it will be hard for the music industry to ignore. A 2023 report from <a target="_blank" href="https://luminatedata.com/reports/yearend-music-industry-report/">Luminate</a> shows that India alone saw the biggest year-over-year increase in total annual on-demand music streams of any nation last year. Its 2023 total streams were up by nearly half a trillion plays (+463.7 billion) from 2022. The US, by contrast, saw a year-over-year increase of just 184 billion.<div type="image" title="Jay Sean wears a black bomber jacket sitting net to Veyah, a female singer wearing a teal, black and yellow striped shirt and Converse." height="1600" width="1200" msid="112636845" hostid="261" sizebytes="175430"></div>The internet has helped serve as a great equalizer in helping music go global. When Sean began his career, the way to get discovered was by showcasing your talents to record labels. Now, talent all over the world is emerging through platforms like YouTube and TikTok."You could be in the most remote village somewhere, and if you've got access to the internet and you've uploaded yourself singing — boom, you are out there for the whole world to discover you," Sean said.In fact, one of today's hottest Indian artists, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.instagram.com/diljitdosanjh/?hl=en">Diljit Dosanjh</a>, first broke through in 2020 when he entered Billboard's Social 50 chart, which ranks the most active artists on the world's leading social media platforms. It was his 11th album that finally got him there. In 2023, he became the first Indian artist to perform at Coachella.With the winds of change moving East, Jay Sean wants to find more South Asian artists and promote them. His record label 3AM Entertainment has partnered with Virgin Music Group and Range Media Partners to focus on artists from the South Asian diaspora, regardless of genre. You can see his eyes glow with excitement as he talks about the project."Our first signing is an absolutely phenomenal artist called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuILunIEi48">Veyah</a>. I saw her on TikTok singing from her kitchen, and I was like, 'I don't know who you are or where you are, but you need to be in a music studio, not in a kitchen with a voice like that.'"Finding new South Asian talent is part of Sean's effort to give back to his community."It really was and has been important for the last 20 years for me to try and push that door down so that our rest of our people can come through," he said. "So I was like, 'Nah, I'm not going to rest until I know that we are good here.'"

South Asian music is having a moment. Jay Sean is making sure it's here to stay.  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is on its way to the Middle East after exercises in Asia.</li><li>Its departure will leave the US Navy without a carrier in the Western Pacific region unless another can be tasked to the area.</li></ul>Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are drawing the US military's focus and risk leaving the US Navy without any aircraft carriers operating in the Western Pacific, which is home to a major US rival and longtime foes.The only US carrier in the area is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3814264/statement-from-pentagon-press-secretary-maj-gen-pat-ryder-on-the-eisenhower-car/">on its way to the Middle East</a> following a series of military drills in the Pacific. Meanwhile, China continues to demonstrate its ambitions with a growing fleet of carriers while American adversaries stir unease.Late last month, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-aircraft-carrier-south-korea-north-korea-russia-putin-kim-2024-6">USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group arrived in South Korea</a> for a joint exercise with its host nation and Japan. While the exercise was pre-planned, it came at a tense time in the region, just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-north-korea-have-put-south-korea-in-a-predicament-2024-7">a historic defense pact</a> that has had far-reaching geopolitical reverberations.When the Roosevelt and the other elements of the strike group arrived, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.facebook.com/ilovenavy/">South Korean navy said</a> that the presence of the Nimitz-class nuclear-powered carrier and the other US warships "demonstrates the strong combined defense posture of the South Korea-US alliance and their firm resolve to respond to the escalating threats from North Korea."After the exercise wrapped up, the Roosevelt strike group set sail for Middle Eastern waters, where it will take over the defense of commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. After USS Gerald R. Ford and the Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Roosevelt is the third aircraft carrier that has been sent to respond to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-third-carrier-strike-group-react-middle-east-conflict-2024-6">fighting in the Middle East</a> ignited by the Israel-Hamas war.<div type="image" title="A US Navy aircraft sits on the deck of the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier with a few sailors standing nearby as a red light shines on them while the sun sets." height="3531" width="5296" msid="111522959" hostid="261" sizebytes="947116"></div>The steady movement of the Roosevelt out of the Western Pacific and the departure of USS Ronald Reagan before that risks leaving an aircraft carrier-shaped hole in the US Navy's presence in the region at a time when Russia and North Korea are creating new headaches for US ally South Korea and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-wants-to-build-aircraft-carriers-2024-6">China is increasingly conducting its own carrier operations</a> and flexing its muscles against another US ally, the Philippines.Business Insider was unable to reach the Pentagon for comment on carrier movements or US force posture in the Western Pacific. The USNI News fleet tracker <a target="_blank" href="https://news.usni.org/2024/07/01/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-july-1-2024">indicated</a> on July 1 that USS Carl Vinson was in the Eastern Pacific around Hawaii for the big Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) naval exercise while the Roosevelt appeared to be working its way toward the South China Sea. USS Carl Vinson is available for necessary tasking, but it lacks the presence provided by a forward-deployed carrier.On July 2, the Roosevelt strike group was in the Philippine Sea, according to imagery and information from what is known as DVIDS, or the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service.<div type="image" title="The Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier." height="3320" width="5000" msid="111522961" hostid="261" sizebytes="1500744"></div>As the Roosevelt travels to keep up the seeminglty endless fight against the Houthis, China's navy has been active. The aircraft carrier Shandong and a Chinese amphibious assault ship conducted an exercise in the South China Sea earlier this week.The Shandong is one of two Chinese Soviet-style carriers. The warship features a ski-jump-style ramp like its predecessor, Liaoning. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-newest-aircraft-carrier-seen-with-aircraft-mock-ups-images-2024-4">China's newest carrier</a>, Fujian, has a catapult launch system similar to the one on the US Navy's new Ford-class carriers.China's carriers — the speed at which they're building and fielding them, as well as how and where they're operating them — demonstrate a focus in Beijing on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-more-to-learn-to-match-us-2024-5">building a carrier fleet capable of projecting military power</a> in the region and potentially globally.Lately, China has also ramped up altercations with the Philippines in contested waters in the South China Sea. Just late last month, Chinese personnel armed with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">machetes and spears</a> attacked Filipino navy personnel in disputed waters. The Coast Guard, however, has taken charge in this spat, as opposed to the navy.

Demands in the Middle East risk leaving an aircraft carrier-sized hole in US naval power in the Western Pacific

Every year, nearly 6,500 <keyword id="20068743" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="adolescent-girls" source="keywords">adolescent girls</keyword> in <keyword id="19897710" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="South-Asia" source="keywords">South Asia</keyword> die giving birth. Most of them are minors <keyword id="19895006" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WHO" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="WHO" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="WHO">who</keyword> have limited power over their reproductive health or lives, according to a joint analysis done by <keyword id="20018080" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UNICEF" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="UNICEF" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="UNICEF">UNICEF</keyword>, WHO and <keyword id="20802066" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UNFPA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="UNFPA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="UNFPA">UNFPA</keyword>. South Asia accounts for 290 million <keyword id="22387193" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="child-brides" source="keywords">child brides</keyword> - nearly half of the world's burden. In three countries in South Asia, they are also four times more likely to be out of school than their unmarried peers, as per the analysis done by United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), <keyword id="19902256" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-health-organisation" source="keywords">World Health Organisation</keyword> (WHO) and United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). At the two-day regional dialogue on adolescent pregnancy in South Asia, which concluded on Friday, the <keyword id="20679678" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SAARC" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="SAARC" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="SAARC">SAARC</keyword> countries, UNICEF South Asia, UNFPA and WHO called for increased commitment to critical services for over 2.2 million adolescent girls that give birth yearly in South Asia, a joint press release issued by the agencies said. "I appreciate the role of governments, UN agencies, NGOs and civil society for the improvements made by the SAARC region over the years in reducing <keyword id="22387194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="teenage-pregnancy" source="keywords">teenage pregnancy</keyword>," said Ambassador Golam Sarwar, the Secretary General of SAARC. "But the region still has a long way to go. I call upon everyone to resolutely address the root causes including child marriage, access to adolescent health education, and removing social stigma in managing the teenage population of the SAARC region," he said. Every year, nearly 6,500 adolescent girls die in childbirth in South Asia, according to the analysis by UNICEF, WHO and UNFPA. Most of them are child brides who have limited or negligible power and autonomy over their reproductive health or lives. When young girls give birth, their lives can be at risk as they are not yet physically ready to give birth. Thousands more girls are forced to drop out of school, face stigma, rejection, violence, unemployment as well as lifelong social challenges. Forty-nine per cent of young girls in South Asia are not in education, employment or training - the highest in the world, the press release said. "We must do better for adolescent girls, particularly those who are married, pregnant or parents. In addition to hurdles to learn, get good healthcare and eat nutritious food, they are denied the opportunity to build skills and start businesses -- everything they need as parents to thrive and fulfil their potential," said Sanjay Wijesekera, UNICEF Regional Director for South Asia. "We must work together and invest in opportunities to unleash the promise of more than 170 million adolescent girls in South Asia. Doing so would be transformative for this region," he said. Government and UN officials, adolescent girls, as well as civil society representatives from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have participated in the dialogue and reaffirmed their commitment to providing better services to support pregnant adolescent girls and young mothers. This includes opportunities to learn, set up their businesses, and earn a living. The event held in Kathmandu over July 11-12 was jointly organised by SAARC, WHO, UNICEF, and UNFPA and was inaugurated by the Secretary General of SAARC, Ambassador Golam Sarwar. Adolescent mothers have a much higher risk of dying from maternal causes, compared to women in their 20s and 30s. "It is high time that we reverse this trend. The unique physical, cognitive, social, emotional, and sexual development during adolescence necessitates special attention in national and international policies. Effective strategies to tackle adolescent pregnancy require cross-sectoral collaboration and equitable access to a variety of services," said Saima Wazed, Regional Director, WHO South-East Asia.

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