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<ul><li>Retail inflation in October was at a three-month low from a five-month high of 7.41 per cent in September.</li><li>At 6.77 per cent, October's retail inflation is still above the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent. </li><li><keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">Food inflation</keyword> in October fell to 7.01 per cent from 8.6 per cent in the previous month</li></ul> New Delhi, Nov 14 (IANS) Retail inflation in October eased to 6.77 per cent, compared to 7.41 per cent in September, yet remained above the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent for the 10th straight month, mainly due to high prices of food items. Though food inflation in October fell to 7.01 per cent from 8.6 per cent in the previous month, prices of meat and egg, milk, vegetables, and cereals rose. Retail inflation in October though was at a three-month low from a five-month high of 7.41 per cent in September. Recently the RBI's monetary policy committee held a meeting on November 3 to discuss the reply to be given to the Centre on the central bank's failure to curb inflation within its tolerance limit of below 6 per cent.

Retail inflation eases to a 3-month low of 6.7% in October

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks inched higher Wednesday as investors read through the latest Fed minutes.</li><li>Central bankers remained mostly hawkish on their approach to inflation at the last policy meeting. </li></ul>US stocks rose on Wednesday as investors digested the latest minutes of September's Federal Reserve meeting and looked ahead for the September Consumer Price Index report, which is set to roll out Thursday morning.Major indexes ended the day mostly flat, though the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished slightly in the green.Central bankers signaled that they would continue to remain cautious on inflation at their last policy meeting, per the latest minutes. Though they acknowledged inflation expectations remain "well anchored," prices are still well-above the Fed's 2% target, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-inflation-cpi-august-us-economy-fed-2023-9?_gl=1*smz72r*_ga*MjMxMzA1Mzg2LjE2NTY0NDQxNTU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY5NDYyNjQ1NC42MjUuMS4xNjk0NjMyMzU2LjUuMC4w">having accelerated 3.7% in August</a>.Around two-thirds of Fed members predicted one more rate hike before the end of 2023, according to the Fed's dot plot of interest rate expectations.Investors, though, have priced in a 91% chance the Fed will keep interest rates level at their next policy meeting, per the CME FedWatch tool.When accounting for inflationary pressures stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, and the UAW strike, the Fed will likely raise rates just 0.25% in December before pausing for good, according to Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams."Either way, the Fed is likely to pivot to interest rate cuts in mid-2024 as core inflation, wage growth, housing prices, and other broad measures of price pressures move closer to pre-pandemic levels," Adams said in a note on Wednesday.Investors are now looking ahead to the September inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday. Economists are expecting inflation to have accelerated 3.6% last month, with core prices accelerating 4.1%.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 4,376.94, up 0.43% </li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 33,804.81, up 0.19% (+65.51 points)</li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 13,659.68, up 0.71%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/howard-marks-letter-bonds-equity-interest-rates-yields-easy-money-2023-10">Bonds are offering investors equity-like returns</a>, according to billionaire Howard Marks.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bond-crash-cash-fed-rates-el-erian-2023-10">Stocks and bonds are in for a 'painful' journey ahead</a> - and that makes cash more attractive, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/most-bearish-bet-against-stocks-ever-record-wall-street-cta-2023-10">A key corner of Wall Street is making its most bearish bet against stocks ever</a>.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/finance-russia-economy-sanctions-ukraine-war-assets-sanctions-janet-yellen-2023-10">Janet Yellen says she supports using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine</a>.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/china-yuan-economy-markets-debt-bonds-offshore-investors-beijing-sale-2023-10">China is boosting its efforts to spread the yuan</a> as it dumps $7.5 billion in offshore bonds.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-bubble-home-prices-outlook-sheila-bair-mortgage-rates-2023-10">The housing market is in a bubble</a>, but home prices may not fall anytime soon.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil fell 2.27% to $84.02 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, slipped 1.5% to $86.33 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> inched higher 0.64% to $1,887.30 per ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield slipped eight basis-points to 4.566%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slumped 2.63% to $26,693. </li></ul>

US stocks rise as investors parse Fed minutes and await September inflation report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Barclays said Thursday it now expects "more aggressive, front-loaded hikes by the Fed" after September's CPI. </li><li>It projects the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points in December and by 50 basis points in February 2023. </li></ul>The Federal Reserve could push up its benchmark interest rate past 5% in 2023, Barclays said Thursday as September's hotter-than-anticipated inflation report prompted it to change its projections for the central bank's policy moves. "We now expect more aggressive, front-loaded hikes by the Fed in the next few meetings," Jonathan Millar, senior economist at Barclays, said in a note.Barclays now expects policy makers to raise the fed funds rate by 75 basis points in December, compared with its prior view of a hike of 50 basis points. For the first meeting of 2023, Barclays foresees a rate hike of 50 basis points, up from its past forecast of 25 basis points. It held to its view that in November the Federal Open Market Committee led by Jerome Powell will increase the rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. Put together, that would propel the fed funds rate to a range of 5% to 5.25% in February. Barclays had earlier forecast a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday said the core Consumer Price Index — an inflation measure excluding volatile food and energy prices — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-report-cpi-september-prices-rent-fed-rates-recession-outlook-2022-10">rose 6.6% in the year through September</a>, the fastest price growth since 1982. Expectations were 6.5% among economists polled by Bloomberg. The "surprises within core services were broad-based, reflecting firming prints for both the rent of shelter components … and ex-shelter services 0.9% month over month," said Millar. He noted the gauges of Owners' Equivalent Rent and rent of primary residence each accelerated to 0.8% month over month. "Hence, the latest estimates show broad-based acceleration in the service category, which is clearly inconsistent with the FOMC's resolve to continue with aggressive hikes until it sees 'clear and convincing evidence' of a sustained decline in inflationary pressures," said Millar. After the September inflation report, investors believe the odds of a 75-basis-point rate hike at the December Fed meeting <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/inflation-september-fed-rate-hike-odds-75-basis-points-december-2022-10">have doubled</a>. "With the FOMC's backward-looking reaction function intensifying overtightening risks, we now expect the FOMC to cut the funds rate by 75 bp in the final three meetings of 2023," said Barclays. Such moves would bring the fed funds target range to 4.25% to 4.5% at end of next year, compared with the investment bank's prior projection of 4%-4.25%. The Fed is expected on November 1-2 to deliver its fourth straight rate hike of 75 basis points and its sixth increase of 2022. The benchmark rate stood at 3%-3.25% after starting from zero this year.

The Fed will be more aggressive with rate hikes into early 2023 after September's inflation shock, Barclays says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation cooled in September, but less than economists expected.</li><li>The consumer price index increased 2.4% over the year, above the forecast of 2.3%.</li></ul>Inflation came in hotter than expected in September.The consumer price index, a closely-watched <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation measure</a>, increased 2.4% from September 2023 to this past September. This index was expected to see a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, a cooler rate than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">August's 2.5%</a>.The surprisingly hot inflation reading is a sign that the economy is running strong, and complicates the Fed's next rate decision, since in theory higher inflation would make further cuts less likely.Still, odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the central bank's November meeting ticked higher after the release, and now carries an 83% probability, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch</a> tool.That could be because the market also digested weekly jobless-claim figures that came in higher than expected. The Fed has been closely watching the labor market for signs of tightness, in addition to inflation for signals of what to do next with rates.Following a surprisingly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">strong September jobs report</a>, speculation rose that the Fed might slow its pace of rate cuts — or even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-fed-outlook-recession-economy-stocks-ed-yardeni-2024-10">stop them altogether</a>. But the market appears largely convinced for now that a 25-basis-point move is coming in November.The Fed will have other data to mull over before the meeting. The Employment Cost Index, a quarterly release that shows how much companies are paying in salaries and benefits, will be published on October 31. Plus, the next jobs report, which includes how job gains looked in October as well as potential revisions for September's and August's growth, will be out on November 1.This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

Inflation was hotter than expected in September, but continued its downward trend

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation surged more than expected in September, raising new questions around the economy's future.</li><li>The Fed's anti-inflation efforts haven't worked, fueling speculation on rising interest rates.</li></ul>Some economic-data releases are hugely complicated, leaving experts and everyday Americans more confused about the country's economic health.But the September inflation report was crystal-clear in showing trouble ahead. Nearly every detail within painted a bleak picture of the country's near-term future and made a self-induced recession even more likely.The Consumer Price Index <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-report-cpi-september-prices-rent-fed-rates-recession-outlook-2022-10">rose 0.4% in September</a> and showed a year-over-year pace of 8.2%, both measures surpassing economists' forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food-and-energy prices, jumped 0.6% last month, with a year-over-year gain of 6.6%. That marked the fastest core-price growth since 1982.The details of the report were just as dire. Shelter inflation replaced food and gas prices as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/are-home-prices-rising-housing-inflation-cpi-september-rate-hikes-2022-10">the biggest driver of headline inflation</a>, accelerating to the fastest one-year pace since 1982 as well. Inflation for medical care and transportation services like airlines and mass transit also worsened throughout the month.For the Federal Reserve, the new data makes its battle against inflation — which has included multiple historically large rate hikes — look futile. For the stock market, the prospect of further Fed tightening is a major headwind with indexes already near 2022 lows. And the White House now has to grapple with a fresh batch of negative inflation headlines mere weeks before the hugely consequential midterm elections.<h2>Investors stare down a market reckoning</h2>The stock market's path through 2022 has been a simple one: If it looks as if the Fed will slow its hiking cycle, investors cheer and stocks rally. Conversely, signs that the central bank will keep tightening typically lead to sudden declines and fears of an economic downturn.The first hours of Thursday's trading session met that precedent. The S&amp;P 500 <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-september-inflation-cpi-fed-economy-2022-10">plummeted as much as 2.4%</a> soon after markets opened as investors read the report as a clear sign that the Fed will continue its hiking plans, though those losses reversed themselves by midday and stocks rebounded into the afternoon.Options traders are now pricing in 0.75-point rate hikes for both the Fed's November and December meetings. Such moves would firmly press the brakes on economic growth.That leaves stock investors with a steep uphill climb through the rest of this year and 2023. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive for companies, which typically slows firms' profit growth, and traders will set an even higher bar for companies to clear when they start announcing their quarterly earnings."These inflation numbers will be a major pain point for the markets. The coming earnings season would have to be doubly strong to offset the strong headwinds of will be an ever-aggressive Fed," Yung-Yu Ma, a chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, said. "Earnings season might not be bad, but being strong enough to reverse this tide will be a tough go."With several large rate hikes surely on the way, trading is likely to get more volatile before cooling down.<h2>Strong inflation leaves the door wide open for the Fed to keep up its fast hiking pace</h2>The September CPI read might've made investing a whole lot more complicated, but it makes the Fed's decision process much easier.Projections central-bank officials made in September already signaled the Fed would raise rates by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-hike-interest-rates-september-inflation-mortgages-credit-cards-2022-9">another three-quarters of a percentage point</a> in November before easing to a half-point hike at its December meeting. Market positioning heading into Thursday morning echoed that projection.The new inflation data changed outlooks in a matter of minutes. Markets are now bracing for back-to-back 0.75-point hikes through the end of the year as well as continued hiking through early 2023."After today's inflation report, there can't be anyone left in the market who believes the Fed can raise rates by anything less than 75bps at the November meeting," Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said. "Slowing growth yet rising inflation — the combination none of us, and least of all the Fed, want to see." With Fed officials consistently hinting that their tightening plans are far from complete, significantly higher interest rates are practically a given for at least the next year.<h2>Worse-than-expected inflation endangers Democrats' already-shaky election hopes</h2>The Thursday report was the last opportunity for Democrats to win a surprise inflation cooldown they could campaign on through Election Day.What they got was a worst-case scenario. Republicans <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nancy-pelosi-refuses-answer-another-term-speaker-house-democrats-midterms-2022-9">already favored to wrest control of the House</a> now have a new talking point that's relevant to all Americans, and as campaigns enter their final sprints, surging inflation could even dent Democrats' hopes to keep the Senate.That likely dooms the Biden administration to a dull two years before the 2024 elections. Democrats' fragile control of Congress allowed President Joe Biden to pass much of his legislative agenda, albeit with many packages slimmed down. Yet much of the blowback — from Republicans and moderate Democrats alike — centered around the policies putting more cash into the economy when inflation was on the rise.With core inflation higher than it was at any point during the pandemic, Republicans are poised to push spending cuts and deficit reduction should they take the House. Chances at bipartisan policymaking will be few and far between, and until inflation shows clear signs of easing, the GOP will likely aim to reverse many of the White House's recent victories.

September's stubbornly high inflation is going to create problems for investors, the White House, and the Fed

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Economists expect core inflation — which removes food and energy costs — to rebound in September.</li><li>The median forecast sees the one-year rate rising to 6.5%, matching the 40-year high seen in March.</li></ul>The battle against inflation in the US is far from over, and incoming data is expected to show a difficult slog ahead.The government is slated to publish Consumer Price Index data for September on Thursday morning, and forecasts aren't encouraging. The core measure — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — is expected to come in at a 0.5%, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gauge is also expected to climb to a 6.5% year-over-year pace. Should the projection prove correct, that will place core inflation back at the March peak and the fastest pace since 1981.While some of the biggest contributors to the price surge like gasoline and used car prices have cooled off in recent months, rents and food costs have taken their place. That means households' finances are still going to be slammed by soaring prices nearly two years after inflation first leaped higher. Housing costs in particular have been buoyed by the Fed's own efforts to cool inflation. The central bank has been raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s in hopes of easing Americans' demand and giving supply a chance to catch up. That's raised mortgage rates sharply higher, which in turn has put upward pressure on rents. As the Fed's hiking cycle pushes into 2023, housing costs could be the latest snag keeping overall inflation elevated, especially since shelter costs count for roughly one third of core spending.The forecast for headline CPI is rosier, but only slightly. Economists expect the measure to climb 0.2% through September, accelerating from August's 0.1% gain. The year-over-year rate is seen decelerating to 8.1% from 8.3%, but that's still far higher than pre-pandemic inflation.The Thursday report will be closely watched by economists, lawmakers, and the Fed alike. It represents the first in-depth look at how inflation trended through September. It will also reveal which items saw prices fall as well as which ones pose the greatest threat of driving the cost of living even higher.Economists' projections suggest the September print will be similar in spirit to the August report. That release showed headline inflation <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-report-cpi-august-gas-prices-costs-recession-fed-rates-2022-9">cooling to a one-year rate of 8.3%</a> from 8.5%, signaling the path to healthy price growth will be a long one. Core inflation, meanwhile, rose in August to 6.3% from 5.9%, kickstarting the divergence that's expected to continue into the fall.Whether the September inflation data surprises to the upside or shows price growth slowing more than expected, either outcome is unlikely to change the Fed's plans. Officials signaled in September that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-hike-interest-rates-september-inflation-mortgages-credit-cards-2022-9">more jumbo-sized rate hikes are likely to arrive</a> before the end of the year, and that the central bank will keep raising rates through 2023.Chair Jerome Powell put the labor market in the spotlight during a September 21 press conference, saying there will likely need to be some "softening" for labor demand to fall in line with supply. Yet data out Friday showed the US still <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-263k-payrolls-unemployment-rate-hiring-labor-market-2022-10">adding 263,000 payrolls through September</a>, beating forecasts and exceeding the pre-crisis trend. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.5% from 3.7%, matching five-decade lows. With hiring still running hot last month, the Fed is all but certain to keep raising interest rates at a rapid clip.

Economists think one key inflation measure is headed back to a 40-year high, much to the chagrin of the Fed

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="12098765" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-inflation" source="Orion">UK inflation</keyword> slowed in <keyword id="12349495" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="september" source="Orion">September</keyword> largely due to a measurement quirk, the country's stats office said.</li><li>Economists expect prices to jump before the year is out, as <keyword id="11994712" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy-prices" source="Orion">energy prices</keyword> and supply problems hit the economy.</li></ul>UK inflation unexpectedly slowed down in September due largely to a measurement quirk, the Office for National Statistics <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2021">said</a> Wednesday.Yet analysts said it was most likely a blip, with many predicting that inflation will shoot upwards to a decade high of above 4% before the year is out. One economist said September's figures were "the lull before the storm."Consumer price index inflation slowed to 3.1% in September from 3.2% in August, the ONS said. Analysts had been expecting another 3.2% figure.The ONS said this was largely because of "base effects." A meal subsidy scheme launched in August 2020 pushed up year-on-year inflation in August this year. It came to an end in September 2020, which weighed on last month's figures.There were signs of strong inflation elsewhere. The UK, like countries around the world, has been hit by <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-global-energy-crisis-oil-gas-coal-bofa-2021-10">sharply rising energy prices</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-supply-chain-crisis-ports-face-record-delays-2021-10">supply chain problems</a>. Economists say Brexit is likely to have made the disruption worse.Factory gate prices - at which manufacturers sell to wholesalers - rose 6.7% year-on-year in September, compared to 6% in August. The price of materials and fuels used by manufacturers rose 11.4%, up from 11.2% the previous month.ONS head of prices Mike Hardie said the base effect quirk in the headline inflation rate was "offset by most other categories, including price rises for furniture and household goods."He also said food prices fell more slowly than this time last year and added: "The cost of goods produced by factories rose again, with metals and machinery showing a notable price rise. Road freight costs for UK businesses also continued to rise across the summer."Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-advice-inflation-threat-stock-sectors-federated-hermes-steve-chiavarone-2021-10">A bullish portfolio manager admits not worrying about inflation is 'crazy' - but says stocks in these 3 sectors will still outperform as the S&amp;P 500 rises 19% by 2022</a>The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/gbp-usd">pound</a> slipped after the figures were released and was trading roughly 0.1% lower at $1.377.Inflationary pressure has led to tough talk at the <keyword id="106488" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="bank-of-england" source="Orion">Bank of England</keyword>, the UK's central bank. Governor Andrew Bailey said over the weekend the Bank will have to act to stamp down on inflation, which it expects to rise above 4% in the coming months.Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "This feels a bit like the lull before the storm." Dales said a sharp rise in UK energy bills this month had probably lifted <keyword id="12092821" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="cpi-inflation" source="Orion">CPI inflation</keyword> to around 3.8% in October.Silvia Dall'Angelo, senior economist at Federated Hermes, said: "The inflation picture is set to get worse in the short term." Yet she said inflation would cool sharply over the medium term.Financial <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> now think the BoE will raise <keyword id="6371181" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="Orion">interest rates</keyword> from their record low level of 0.1% this year, making it the first major central bank to do so. Traders now expect a rise to 0.25% in November.

UK inflation unexpectedly cools in September - but analysts say it's the 'lull before the storm'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="11916720" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="consumer-price-index" source="Orion">Consumer Price Index</keyword> rose 0.4% in September, exceeding the median estimate of 0.3%.</li><li>The reading marks an acceleration from August price growth of 0.3%.</li></ul><keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">Inflation</keyword> rebounded in September as new obstacles kept prices surging higher.The Consumer Price Index - a commonly used measure of US inflation - rose 0.4% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Wednesday. That exceeded the median forecast of a 0.3% gain from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.The print shows price growth unexpectedly picking up from the 0.3% jump seen through August.On a year-over-year basis, the index jumped 5.4%. Economists expected a 5.3% increase. The one-year gain also accelerated from the pace seen in August.Core <keyword id="11995266" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="cpi" source="Orion">CPI</keyword>, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% last month, matching the median forecast of a 0.2% jump.While the virus threat began to subside in late September, supply bottlenecks still plague businesses and consumers. Americans spending held up through the Delta wave, with retail sales <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-sales-august-delta-wave-business-activity-consumer-spending-recovery-2021-9">still trending near record highs</a> through August. Yet massive order backlogs and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/los-angeles-port-shipping-crisis-docks-supply-chain-white-house-2021-10">shipment buildups at key ports</a> have kept firms from matching supply with Americans' extraordinary demand.The latest reading also suggests inflation might not be as transitory as the White House and the Federal Reserve anticipated. Both expected price growth to cool into 2022 as COVID-19 cases fell. Yet inflation remains stubbornly high, and the global supply-chain nightmare threatens to keep it that way.<h2>Where your dollar is getting weaker</h2>Energy prices rose the most among major spending categories through September. Fuel costs jumped 3.9%, rebounding from the 2.1% slide seen in August. Utility gas services rose 2.7%, the second-largest jump of any CPI category.Used car prices, which counted for roughly one-third of the spring's inflation surge, saw prices drop 0.7% in September. While that's not as big a decline as August's 1.5% slump, it signals the category isn't contributing to continued rising prices.Prices for clothing, medical care, and transportation also fell through the month. Shelter prices, which track rent and hotel costs, rose just 0.4%. That's twice as big an increase as in August, but still implies soaring house prices aren't leading to dramatically higher inflation.While the September rebound only just exceeded forecasts, the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/10/13/background-press-call-on-global-transportation-supply-chain-bottlenecks/">White House is already intervening to ease supply-chain pressures</a> across the country. The administration has secured commitments from UPS, Walmart, and FedEx to work 24/7 to solve backlogs and pull shipping times back to normal, a senior administration official said in a Tuesday call.Other companies, including Samsung, Home Depot, and Target, will work off-peak hours to address their backlogs and help smaller retailers receive necessary products, the administration added.Separately, the Port of Los Angeles will start processing cargo ships 24/7 to alleviate product shortages, the White House said Wednesday. Ships carrying nearly 500,000 containers are waiting for spots to open up so they can dock and unload millions of tons of products. With the holiday season approaching, the push for 24/7 processing could solve bottlenecks just in time for the next spending boom.

Inflation picked up in September, signaling the economy is still far from normal

<ul class="summary-list"><li>September's year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index was 3.7%.</li><li>That's the same as the year-over-year increase of 3.7% in August.</li></ul>Inflation is still elevated and held steady in September, based on Consumer Price Index or CPI data out Thursday.The Consumer Price Index grew 3.7% over the 12 months ending September, above the <a href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a> of 3.6%. September's increase was the same as the previous change of 3.7%. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inflation-economy-cpi-august-data-2023-9">August's year-over-year change</a> showed inflation rising quicker after July's year-over-year change of 3.2%.CPI rose 0.4% from August to September, below the previous increase of 0.6%. The month-over-month increase was higher than the month-over-month forecast of 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also increased 4.1% from September 2022 to September of this year. The forecast was 4.1% and the prior year-over-year increase was 4.3%. The year-over-year increase in this index had been falling, based on data before Thursday's data release.Core CPI index increased 0.3% from August to September. The forecast and the prior month-over-month increase were both 0.3%."The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase," a news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.This index rose 0.6% in September from the preceding month, more than the 0.3% in August. Additionally, this index saw a 7.2% increase over the 12 months ending September. While still extremely elevated, the year-over-year percent increases have been cooling.The new BLS news release noted the rise in the index for gas as a "major contributor to the all items monthly rise." This index increased 2.1% month over month — a much smaller increase than the 10.6% seen in August but above the 0.2% increase seen in July. After some year-over-year decreases, the gasoline index climbed 3.0% over the 12 month period.The food index is also still increasing with another month-over-increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 3.7%.Additionally, real hourly earnings declined month over month given the 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings and the 0.4% rise in the CPI in September, a different <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> said."Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from August to September," the news release said.Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-unemployment-rate-labor-market-september-report-2023-10">job growth data</a> for September showed more jobs added in September than recent months. The US added 336,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, following an increase of 227,000 in August.Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter, told Insider the recent jobs report out earlier this month with data up to September was "a best of all worlds type jobs report.""It suggests that the Fed can have its cake and eat it," Pollak added. "There's no trade-off between job growth and inflation."Additionally, the percent increase in the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-is-producer-price-index">Producer Price Index</a> cooled based on new data out Wednesday. The index for final demand increased 0.5% month over month from August to September — after a 0.7% increase in August and 0.6% increase in July."While the disinflationary impulse from easing supply chain strains is largely over, the all-important PPI for trade services — a proxy for margins — has shown significant disinflation which should in turn feed into lower consumer price inflation," Gregory Daco, EY's chief economist, said in recent commentary.

Inflation held steady in September as housing and gas prices keep going up

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks likely reached a bottom on the day of the S&amp;P 500's big swing sparked by the September inflation report, said Carson Group. </li><li>"The action last Thursday had some of the hallmarks of a capitulation low," chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said. </li></ul>October may still prove to be a bear-market killer as stocks likely reached a bottom on the day of the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> big swing following the latest US inflation report, according to one market strategist. "The action last Thursday had some of the hallmarks of a capitulation low," Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, wrote in a note this week. He drew readers back to the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-wild-turnaround-inflation-september-cpi-report-2022-10">wild session on October 13</a>, when the S&amp;P 500 logged an intraday swing of more than 5%, after erasing steep early losses to finish up by 2.6% at 3,669.91. The S&amp;P 500 hit a 52-week low of 3,491.58, and sessions such as that have marked "major turning points" for stocks, he said. The most recent example was in March 2020 when the S&amp;P 500 began recovering from a 9.5% one-day plunge spurred by panic over the COVID-19 pandemic. Last Thursday's slide was sparked by the shock September inflation report as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-report-cpi-september-prices-rent-fed-rates-recession-outlook-2022-10">core CPI reading</a> came in at 6.6%, hotter than the 6.5% Bloomberg consensus estimate. The odds of a 75-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December meeting <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/inflation-september-fed-rate-hike-odds-75-basis-points-december-2022-10">nearly doubled</a> after the CPI report. "In the history of bear markets, it is safe to say stocks haven't ever bottomed on good news, the news is always horrible. Last Thursday morning felt like that," said Detrick. In tracing back bear and near-bear markets to World War II, Detrick noted that six of the last 17 ended in October, with an average decline of 29.6% and lasting about a year. "The current bear of 25.4% and 9.3 months is in range for what history tells us is normal," he said. <div type="image" title="S&amp;P 500 retracement chart" height="864" width="1144" msid="95018347" hostid="261" sizebytes="54824"></div>He also pointed out that the S&amp;P 500's retracement of 50% of the previous bull market near 3,500 is a common level where investors have stepped in to bargain hunt. "Multiple times going back the past decade this trendline was support," he said. Meanwhile, fewer stocks last week made 52-week lows than when the S&amp;P 500 reached a low in mid-June."Simply put, if not as many stocks are going down, it is hard for the index to continue to go lower," Detrick said. "The stage could be set for a well-deserved fourth-quarter rally." On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 was higher at 3,677 as trading got underway after futures suggested a decline for the broad-equity index.

Stocks likely bottomed this month following the September inflation report as investors scramble to exit the bear market, analyst says

<ul><li>US stocks plunged on Thursday, and then soared after September's CPI report doubled expectations at 0.4% month-over-month.</li><li>The September inflation report poured cold water on hopes that the Fed will pivot away from its interest rate hikes.</li><li>Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in a 75 basis point rate hike in both November and December.</li></ul>US stocks plunged on Thursday, and then soared after <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-report-cpi-september-prices-rent-fed-rates-recession-outlook-2022-10">September's CPI report showed inflation continues to hit levels</a> not seen in four decades. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> was down 2.4% as its low of the day, before it recovered all of those losses and surged as much as 2%. The reversal came after the S&amp;P 500 tested 3,500, briefly hitting a low of 3,491. The 3,500 level represents a 50% retracement of the March 2020 low at about 2,200 and the January high of about 4,800.Month-over-month inflation hit 0.4%, double the expectation for a rise of just 0.2%. CPI rose 8.2% year-over-year, which was above estimates for a rise of 8.1%. Even when excluding food and energy prices, CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month, which was ahead of estimates for a rise of 0.4%.The hot CPI report erased all hopes that the Fed will soon pivot away from its aggressive rate hikes anytime soon. The Fed is now expected to hike interest rates 75 basis points in both November and December, according to the <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool.</a>The shock CPI report erased early morning gains in the market, as the S&amp;P 500 was briefly up about 1% after the UK government signaled a policy reversal of its proposed tax cut plans.Here's where US indexes stood at 11:52 a.m. ET on Thursday:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">S&amp;P 500</a>: 3,632.49, up 1.55%</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 29,715.90, up 1.73% (505.03 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 10,557, up 1.34%</li></ul>"In one line: Awful," Pantheon Macro's chief economist Ian Shepherdson told Insider. "Downward pressure on inflation is visible everywhere except in the inflation numbers."Here's what else is happening this morning:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/opec-output-cut-push-global-economy-recession-iea-oil-prices-2022-10">Deep oil output cuts by OPEC+</a> have elevated prices and could tip the global economy into recession, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/opec-cuts-global-oil-demand-china-covid-19-2022-10">OPEC is expecting oil demand to fall</a> as the global economic outlook worsens, with fresh COVID-19 shutdowns in China a key concern.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/european-energy-crisis-natural-gas-prices-norway-police-nyhamna-plant-2022-10">A potential threat to a large Norwegian natural gas plant</a> sent jitters through European energy markets Thursday, as the continent frets about suspected Russian interference in its infrastructure.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-vs-pound-british-sterling-uk-mini-budget-u-turn-2022-10">The pound soared Thursday following reports</a> the UK government is discussing a potential pullback from parts of its mini-budget, an economic growth plan that was met with market turmoil after its introduction last month. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds and crypto:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> oil rose 1.70% to $88.75 per barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Brent crude</a>, oil's international benchmark, jumped 1.74% to $94.06.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> fell 0.38% to $1,671.20 per ounce.</li><li>The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 5 basis points to 3.95%.</li><li>Bitcoin fell 0.61% to $18,972, while ether fell 2.25% to $1,257. </li></ul>

US stocks stage big reversal to jump 2% after September inflation hits highest level since 1982

The <keyword id="1977563" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wholesale-price-based-inflation" source="Orion">wholesale price-based inflation</keyword> declined for the fourth consecutive month to 10.7 per cent in September on softening in prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. The Wholesale Price Index-based <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> was 12.41 per cent in August and 11.80 per cent in September last year. This year, the Wholesale Price Index (<keyword id="46000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI" source="Orion">WPI</keyword>) touched a record high of 15.88 per cent in May. September is the 18th consecutive month of double-digit WPI inflation. "Inflation in September 2022 is primarily contributed by rising prices of mineral oils, food articles, crude petroleum &amp; natural gas, chemicals &amp; chemical products, basic metals, electricity, textiles etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," an official statement said. Inflation in food articles in September eased to 11.03 per cent, against 12.37 per cent in August. However, inflation in vegetables rose to 39.66 per cent during the month, as against 22.29 per cent in August. In the fuel and power basket, inflation came in lower at 32.61 per cent in September, against 33.67 per cent in August. In manufactured products and oil seeds it was 6.34 per cent and (-) 16.55 per cent, respectively. The <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> mainly looks at retail inflation to frame monetary policy. Retail inflation remained above the <keyword id="50847" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="reserve-bank" source="Orion">Reserve Bank</keyword>'s upper tolerance threshold of 6 per cent for the ninth month in a row and was at a 5-month high of 7.41 per cent in September, as per data released earlier this week. To tame stubbornly high inflation, the RBI has hiked the key interest rate four times this year to 5.90 per cent -- the highest since April 2019. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/indian-edtech-startup-supernova-raises-1-1-million-in-pre-seed-funding-even-as-indian-startup-funding-hits-a-2-year-low/articleshow/94855274.cms">Indian edtech startup Supernova raises $1.1 million in pre-seed funding even as Indian startup funding hits a 2-year low</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/markets-zoom-in-early-trade-sensex-gains-950-points-nifty-up-270-points/articleshow/94851233.cms">Markets zoom in early trade, Sensex gains 950 points, Nifty up 270 points</a>

You Searched For "september inflation" and got 12 results

Retail inflation eases to a 3-month low of 6.7% in October

IANS

US stocks rise as investors parse Fed minutes and await September inflation report

Jennifer Sor

The Fed will be more aggressive with rate hikes into early 2023 after September's inflation shock, Barclays says

Carla Mozée

Inflation was hotter than expected in September, but continued its downward trend

Madison Hoff

September's stubbornly high inflation is going to create problems for investors, the White House, and the Fed

Ben Winck

Economists think one key inflation measure is headed back to a 40-year high, much to the chagrin of the Fed

Ben Winck,Madison Hoff

UK inflation unexpectedly cools in September - but analysts say it's the 'lull before the storm'

Harry Robertson

Inflation picked up in September, signaling the economy is still far from normal

Ben Winck,Andy Kiersz

Inflation held steady in September as housing and gas prices keep going up

Madison Hoff

Stocks likely bottomed this month following the September inflation report as investors scramble to exit the bear market, analyst says

Carla Mozée

US stocks stage big reversal to jump 2% after September inflation hits highest level since 1982

Matthew Fox

WPI inflation eases to 10.7 pc in Sep

PTI

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