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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The tariffs Donald Trump proposed while campaigning could help create US semiconductor jobs.</li><li>Tariffs could also help US chipmakers compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.</li></ul>If president-elect Donald Trump follows through on his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">campaign promise to impose tariffs</a>, the domestic semiconductor industry could see job gains.Industry experts told Business Insider that tariffs on foreign-made chips could help level the playing field for US chipmakers, which are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chip-troubles-problem-us-economy-domestic-production-chips-act-2024-11">facing fierce competition</a> from their counterparts abroad. The tariffs could also encourage US businesses to source more chips domestically and help persuade chipmaking giants, like the Taiwan-based <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-making-apple-iphone-chips-helps-us-semiconductor-bet-2024-10">TSMC</a>, to keep building factories in the US. These developments could aid job growth in the US semiconductor industry, though experts disagreed on how much.Trump's proposed tariff policies include a 60% tariff on goods coming from China and up to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">20% tariff</a> on all imports, including chips. US companies source many of the chips needed to power items like iPhones and washing machines from abroad: The US share of overall chip production fell from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-us-doesnt-make-chips-semiconductor-shortage-2021-4">37%</a> of the world's supply in 1990 to roughly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%20of%20these,Vice%20President%20Harris%20took%20office.">10%</a> today.In an <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0e9ynAH6hmZIIeOx0SaGQu">interview</a> with podcaster Joe Rogan in October, Trump criticized the Biden administration's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chips-act-funding-all-hands-meeting-2024-11">CHIPS Act</a> legislation, which included $52.7 billion in tax breaks and subsidies for companies in the semiconductor industry. He said that the federal government should have implemented tariffs instead to motivate global chipmakers to build more factories in the US, which would then create jobs."You didn't have to put up $0.10," Trump said. "You could have done it with tariffs. You tariff it so high that they will come and build their chip companies for nothing."To be sure, the impacts of a tariff policy on chips could be mixed. Jeff Koch, an analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, told BI that tariffs could lead to higher prices for goods containing chips, such as cars, electronics, and appliances. He added that US chipmakers could likely benefit from these tariffs because it could help them compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.<h2 id="dc733634-a51d-47cf-a7b9-405bdfac9e61">Tariffs on chips could boost construction and manufacturing jobs</h2>Patrick Moorhead, founder, CEO, and chief analyst at the research and advisory firm Moor Insights and Strategy, told BI that tariffs could increase the number of US chip manufacturing jobs. He added that he thinks the policy could incentivize chipmakers like TSMC and Samsung, which is based in South Korea, to boost manufacturing in the US."The cost of manufacturing in the US for Samsung and TSMC would be lower than a 30% to 40% tariff on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">wafers</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ai-chip-production-manufacturing-nvidia-labor-china-taiwan-korea-2024-4">packaging</a>," he said, referring to key components of the chipmaking process.Jeff Ferry, chief economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a nonprofit that advocates for increasing domestic manufacturing, estimated that tariffs could create roughly 100,000 jobs at US chip manufacturers and their suppliers.He said this estimate was partly based on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/2021-Jobs-Report_2-pager.pdf">report</a> published in 2021 by the Semiconductor Industry Association — a trade association and lobbying group — that said a $50 billion investment would help create an estimated 10 additional chip factories in the US. That could add about 42,000 direct jobs at the companies building these factories and 101,500 indirect jobs at chipmakers' suppliers, per the report.Ferry said he thought chip tariffs could lead to the creation of roughly 10 additional factories, which led him to come to the 100,000 jobs estimate. In August, the White House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/">said</a> that investments supported by CHIPS Act funding would help create 115,000 construction and manufacturing jobs."Tariffs on chips, particularly legacy chips like those used in autos, could successfully shift production back to the US," Ferry said.Samsung did not respond to a request for comment. Intel and TSMC did not respond to a question about what impact a Trump administration tariff policy would have on each company's job creation plans in the US.An Intel spokesperson pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/us-chips-act-intel-direct-funding.html#gs.i5ie0q">press release</a> from March, which said the company's $100 billion investment in the US over the next five years is expected to create more than 10,000 jobs at Intel and nearly 20,000 construction jobs. TSMC pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122">press release</a> from April, that said TSMC's investments in three Arizona chip factories are expected to create roughly 6,000 company jobs, more than 20,000 construction jobs, and tens of thousands of indirect supplier and consumer jobs.Stephen Ezell, the vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, said that the effectiveness of a tariff on chips could be limited, in part because many chips aren't imported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">directly</a> into the US: He said they often come embedded into finished products like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">smartphones</a> or computers.For example, he said that in most cases, chips that TSMC manufactures in Taiwan for Apple are sent to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/tsmc-apple-memory-chip-production-us-china-taiwan-relations/672593/">China</a> or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/apple-made-14-billion-worth-of-iphones-in-india-in-shift-from-china.html">India</a> to be incorporated into a product like an iPhone. Therefore, the chip wouldn't be subject to a US tariff but the iPhone would.When deciding whether to build a chip factory in the US, Ezell said several factors — including wage rates, the labor talent pool, and tax policy — would be bigger considerations for companies than the country's tariff policy. But if tariffs proved to be the deciding factor in a company's decision to invest in the US, then Ezell said the policy could arguably be credited with boosting employment in the semiconductor industry."If a company did decide not to launch a factory elsewhere and instead launch it in the United States, then yes, this dynamic could lead companies to hire more," he said.Do you work in the US semiconductor industry? Reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jzinkula@businessinsider.com">jzinkula@businessinsider.com</a>

Trump's trade restrictions could be good for American semiconductor jobs

<keyword id="19986399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Tata-Electronics" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Tata Electronics" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Tata Electronics">Tata Electronics</keyword> on Thursday said it has concluded an agreement with Taiwan-based Powerchip <keyword id="20073013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="semiconductor-manufacturing" source="keywords">Semiconductor Manufacturing</keyword> Corporation, which will provide technology support for the Dholera wafer fab of the Indian tech major. As per the agreement, PSMC will provide design and construction support to build India's first AI-enabled greenfield fab in Gujarat, license a broad portfolio of technologies and provide engineering support to the fab unit. "We are pleased to partner with PSMC, whose technology and expertise will significantly accelerate our roadmap to pioneer semiconductor manufacturing in India. It will position us to play a key role in the growing semiconductor market to serve global customers," Tata Sons Chairman N Chandrasekaran said. The company is setting up a chip manufacturing unit in Dholera at an investment of up to Rs 91,000 crore ( about USD 11 billion). "<keyword id="19924335" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Tata-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Tata Group" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Tata Group">Tata Group</keyword>'s multi-fab vision for Dholera is projected to create over 1,00,000 skilled jobs," the statement said. Tata Electronics' Dholera-based Fab will have a manufacturing capacity of up to 50,000 wafers per month. "This partnership represents a win-win situation, as it positions PSMC and the Taiwanese ecosystem to gain a significant first-mover advantage in the rapidly expanding Indian market while helping India achieve self-reliance in semiconductor manufacturing," Powerchip Group, Chairman and CEO of PSMC, Frank Huang said. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/airtel-is-using-ai-powered-technology-to-block-spam-calls-and-messages/articleshow/113691942.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/airtel-is-using-ai-powered-technology-to-block-spam-calls-and-messages/articleshow/113691942.cms" target="_blank">Airtel is using AI-powered technology to block spam calls and messages</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/diffusion-engineers-ipo-quick-review-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-more/slidelist/113687580.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/diffusion-engineers-ipo-quick-review-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-more/slidelist/113687580.cms" target="_blank">Diffusion Engineers IPO quick review – IPO GMP, risk factors and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/manba-finance-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/113667907.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/manba-finance-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/113667907.cms" target="_blank">Manba Finance IPO allotment – How to check allotment, IPO GMP, listing date and more</a>

Tata Electronics, PSMC conclude pact for ₹91,000 crore Dholera chip manufacturing unit

Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> urged CEOs of US majors to take advantage of India's growth story as the country is making all efforts to become the third largest economy of the world in his third term. India is currently the fifth largest economy of the world after the US, China, Germany and Japan with a GDP of around USD 3.9 trillion. India has been the fastest growing large economies of the world with GDP growth rate of over 7 per cent for the last three consecutive years. Addressing CEOs of the large US tech firms on Sunday, Modi said India will make every effort to become the third largest economy in the world in his third term (2024-29). Companies should take advantage of India's growth story for collaboration and innovation by co-developing, co-designing, and co-producing in India for the world, harnessing the opportunities from the country's economic and technological growth, he said. Assuring the business leaders of India's deep commitment to the protection of intellectual property and to fostering tech innovation, Modi highlighted the economic transformation happening in the country, particularly in electronics and information technology manufacturing and semiconductors. Modi asserted that his government was committed to making India a "global hub of <keyword id="20073013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="semiconductor-manufacturing" source="keywords">semiconductor manufacturing</keyword>". The meeting took place at the Lotte <keyword id="19904497" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="New-York" source="keywords">New York</keyword> Palace Hotel on Sunday during the second leg of Modi's three-day US visit. It saw the participation of CEOs of 15 major US-based firms working on cutting-edge technologies such as AI, quantum computing and semiconductors. "Had a fruitful roundtable with tech CEOs in New York, discussing aspects relating to technology, innovation and more. Also highlighted the strides made by India in this field. I am glad to see immense optimism towards India," Modi said in a post on X. During the conference, Modi said technology collaboration and efforts such as the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (ICET) lie at the core of the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, according to a Ministry of External Affairs press release. Organised by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) School of Engineering, the CEOs of top US tech firms, including Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayena, Accenture CEO Julie Sweet and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang attended the meeting. Others who participated in the roundtable included AMD CEO Lisa Su, HP Inc. CEO Enrique Lores, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, Dr Noubar Afeyan, Chairman of Moderna, and Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg. Modi also talked about India's BIO E3 (biotechnology for environment, economy and employment) policy to develop the country into a biotech powerhouse and on the topic of AI, noted that India's policy is to promote AI for all, underpinned by its ethical and responsible use. The CEOs appreciated India's growing prominence as a global technology hub, driven by its innovation-friendly policies and flourishing market opportunities. They also expressed strong interest in investing and collaborating with India, agreeing that investing in startups would be a synergistic opportunity to innovate and develop newer technologies in the country. Others who attended the conference included Biogen Inc CEO Chris Viehbacher, CEO of Bristol Myers Squibb, Chris Boerner, Eli Lilly and Company CEO David A. Ricks, LAM Research CEO Tim Archer, GlobalFoundries CEO Thomas Caulfield, and the CEO of Kyndryl, Martin Schroeter. "Further cementing technology and business connect. PM @narendramodi interacted with the top tech leaders and CEOs of USA, in a Roundtable hosted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology School of Engineering, in New York today. PM emphasised India's growth prospects and discussed initiatives to foster collaborations and innovation across diverse sectors," the official account of the MEA said in a post on X. The prime minister had a separate meeting with Krishna P Singh, CEO of Holtec International, which is into nuclear and solar power generation. They discussed Holtec's plan for expanding manufacturing in India and advancing energy cooperation, PMO India said in a post on X. Earlier on Sunday, Modi addressed the <keyword id="20115166" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-diaspora" source="keywords">Indian diaspora</keyword> at the packed Nassau Veterans Coliseum on Long Island in New York. He also held bilateral meetings with world leaders at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session here. Modi reached New York on Saturday after attending the Quad Leaders' Summit hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113516805" title="Why is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the US this weekend?" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

PM Modi invites US CEOs to take a 'byte' out of India's growing technology sector

<ul class="summary-list"><li>TSMC has begun producing chips for Apple at its Phoenix fab, people familiar with the matter said.</li><li>This development bodes well for the future of the US semiconductor industry, to which the Biden administration pledged $52 billion.</li></ul>The US's efforts to produce more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-tech-war-computer-chips-semiconductor-plants-costing-americans-2023-1">semiconductor chips</a> have encountered some challenges over the past few years, but the tide may be turning.TSMC, the world's leading chipmaker, has begun producing A16 chips for Apple at one of its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-phoenix-chip-semiconductor-factory-biden-global-economy-china-taiwan-2022-12">Phoenix semiconductor chip fabs</a> (or factories), two people familiar with the matter told Business Insider. One of the people said that full production levels have not yet been reached. Their identities are known to BI.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://timculpan.substack.com/p/apple-mobile-processors-are-now-made">Tim Culpan</a>, an independent journalist who covers technology and is based in Taiwan, first reported the news last month.The chips, which Culpan reported are being produced in "small, but significant, numbers," mark a major development for the company, which <a target="_blank" href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2033">announced</a> plans in 2020 to invest billions of dollars in Arizona and create thousands of jobs. Additionally, it comes two years after Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, announced that the company would be the "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-tim-cook-america-us-made-chips-first-time-decade-2022-12">largest customer</a>" of TSMC's first Arizona fab and use US-made chips for the first time in nearly a decade.A TSMC spokesperson declined to comment on the company's US work with Apple. When asked about the progress on the company's first chip fab, the spokesperson said that the project is "proceeding as planned with good progression," and that the company is on track to be fully operational in the first half of 2025.Apple didn't respond to BI's request for comment.<h2 id="1819bf24-3dc2-49d1-a9d0-42044a61e24c">'A success story'</h2>Dylan Patel, a chief analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, said stateside chip production for Apple is a key milestone."Despite many negative stories early on, this shows the fabs are on track and operating as expected — a success story," he told BI.Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told BI that beginning the production of A16 chips — which have been used in some recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-15-plus-review">iPhone models</a>, though not the new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-16">iPhone 16</a> — is a very positive signal for the Apple-TSMC partnership."It suggests Apple has enough belief in the new US facility to dive right in with US production of one its most advanced mobile processors," he said, adding, "This is encouraging given some observers' skepticism US sites could reach TSMC standards anytime soon."TSMC's commitment to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-arizona-semiconductor-chip-fab-taiwan-china-president-joe-biden-2024-4">building three</a> chip fabs on its Phoenix campus is key to the Biden-Harris administration's efforts to boost the US's production of the chips that power everything from iPhones to washing machines. In 2022, President Joe Biden signed the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chips-act-bill-to-boost-us-chipmaking-competition-with-china-2022-7">CHIPS Act</a> into law, which included <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-taiwan-china-semiconductor-chips-us-economy-trade-biden-election-2024-7">$39 billion</a> in manufacturing incentives for chip production in the US. In addition to creating US jobs, the administration hopes to secure supply chains and make the US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5">less reliant</a> on advanced chips in Taiwan.<h2 id="8f73c768-4752-403c-b6e5-a20430cb553e">TSMC faced construction slowdowns and worker tensions in Arizona</h2>TSMC's investment in Arizona hasn't always been smooth.Last year, TSMC announced that the official opening of its first Arizona fab would be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-taiwan-semiconductor-phoenix-arizona-factory-chipmaker-job-qualification-debate-2023-8">pushed back</a> from 2024 to 2025. And when the company announced plans to send technicians from Taiwan to train US workers, a local <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-taiwan-semiconductor-phoenix-arizona-factory-chipmaker-job-qualification-debate-2023-8">Arizona labor union</a> protested due to concerns that American jobs would be threatened.Management and safety concerns have also led to some frustrations among TSMC's construction workforce in Arizona. Workers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-phoenix-arizona-chip-factory-taiwan-semiconductor-management-safety-workers-2023-8">previously told BI</a> that managerial challenges had fueled construction delays, and some have accused the company of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-phoenix-arizona-chip-factory-taiwan-semiconductor-management-safety-workers-2023-8">safety violations</a>. TSMC <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-phoenix-arizona-chip-factory-taiwan-semiconductor-management-safety-workers-2023-8">previously told BI</a> that it's committed to ensuring that its working conditions are safe.In 2022, TSMC's founder and former CEO Morris Chang told the Brookings Institute that the US's efforts to boost <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-tsmc-chipmaker-investing-billions-us-cost-more-make-chips-2022-12">domestic chip production</a> would be "a wasteful, expensive exercise in futility," citing labor force and cost challenges.Despite these hiccups, TSMC said in April during an earnings call that the progress on its first Arizona fab was "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-arizona-semiconductor-chip-fab-taiwan-china-president-joe-biden-2024-4">well on track</a>."TSMC's production of Apple chips is good news for Americans <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/semiconductor-industry-jobs-salary-chips-phoenix-arizona-tsmc-students-2023-10">hoping to land jobs</a> in the industry, Patel said. That's because TSMC's early success suggests it will continue to invest in the US."This drives job growth not just at TSMC but for the entire ecosystem — fab construction, equipment vendors, etc. that are all needed to support the fab," Patel said. "While modern fabs are not especially labor intensive, they require highly-skilled workers and will operate for decades, meaning many high-quality, long-term jobs are being created."TSMC has said that it will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-arizona-semiconductor-chip-fab-taiwan-china-president-joe-biden-2024-4">charge customers more</a> for chips made outside Taiwan due to higher manufacturing costs. But Patel said he doesn't expect this to have a material impact on the prices of Apple's products."US government subsidies were meant to offset differences in construction and other costs between Taiwan and the US to make the business viable for TSMC," he said, adding, "Neither Apple nor consumers should expect a price difference for these US-produced chips.Going forward, chip makers like TSMC will face another challenge once they're operating at full capacity: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/semiconductor-certification-program-chipmaker-manufacturing-jobs-new-career-intel-tsmc-2023-8">finding workers</a>.According to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.semiconductors.org/america-faces-significant-shortage-of-tech-workers-in-semiconductor-industry-and-throughout-u-s-economy/">report</a> published last year by the Semiconductor Industry Association, the US semiconductor industry faces a worker shortage of 67,000 workers by 2030, including technicians, computer scientists, and engineers. However, Patel said that he doesn't expect labor force challenges to materially impact production at TSMC specifically.Muro was also optimistic. He said he thinks TSMC's production of Apple chips would bode well for the future."This is an important signal that the American drive to re-shore high-quality chipmaking is well founded," he said.Do you work in the semiconductor industry and have a story to tell? Reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jzinkula@businessinsider.com">jzinkula@businessinsider.com</a>.

Apple's Made-in-the-USA chips signal a turnaround for the US' big semiconductor bet

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bank of America cited three risks that could upend corporate earnings growth, a key driver of stock returns.</li><li>One potential headwind is Trump's proposed tariff plan, BofA said.</li></ul>The stock market has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">riding high</a> since Donald Trump won the presidential election.One main driver of that has been investors pricing in strong profit growth in the future, seen as a direct byproduct of Trump's plans to cut the corporate tax rate and loosen regulation.Although <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/bank-of-america">Bank of America</a>'s year-end target for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> is slightly above current levels, new research from the firm's equity-strategy team laid out three developments that could derail the ongoing "earnings-per-share upcycle" that's powering gains.First, an economic recession could significantly undercut earnings growth, drawing S&amp;P EPS down 10% to 20%.Though a US downturn isn't BofA's base case, the bank cited that recession risk is a real possibility under incoming president Donald Trump.That will depend on which policies the incoming administration prioritizes, analysts wrote in a separate note. In a scenario where Trump pushes dramatic immigration curbs and protectionist trade policies amid minimal fiscal easing, the economy would sink into recession.Peak-to-trough profit drawdowns of 20% are typical in an average recession. Under this scenario, EPS would drop to $195-$220 next year.To be sure, BofA also sees chances of blowout growth, if the president-elect de-emphasizes trade and immigration restrictions in favor of tax cuts and deregulation. In this case, GDP growth could even exceed 3% in 2025.Second, if Trump's trade plans are implemented, retaliatory tariffs could trigger a 10% hit to EPS.During his campaign, the president-elect pledged to implement a 10% duty on all foreign imports into the US. That wouldn't apply to Chinese products, which would face a 60% rate instead.If Trump stays true to his word, BofA expects US foreign sales to take on a 3% to 4% hit as the rest of the world establishes its own retaliatory tariffs.In the mounting trade war, industrials and semiconductor stocks would be most at risk, the bank said.Third, a dramatic upswing in bond yields could slash EPS by another 10%.BofA's worst-case scenario would be if the 10-year Treasury yield surges to 7%, a situation that could be prompted if Trump's tariff and immigration reductions spark an inflation shock.If this were to happen, the yield jump implies that the Purchasing Managers Index would hit 43 by 2024's year-end.This measure monitors the health of US manufacturing and indicates a contraction whenever its reading stands below 50. As of October, PMI registered a 46.5 level.While a contracting manufacturing base would cut into EPS, higher bond yields could also weigh on equity exposure. BofA noted that stocks could face increased pressure once the 10-year rate rises above 5%.The yield has been climbing higher amid Trump's election, as uncertainty has grown over whether the Federal Reserve can cut rates amid the president-elect's policies. The 10-year rate is currently trading above 4.5%.

3 developments that could derail the stock market's post-Trump sugar high, BofA says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election win sparked a surge in the S&amp;P 500, but risks from China loom.</li><li>China could significantly retaliate against Trump's proposed 60% tariff, Capital Economics said.</li></ul>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-trump-win-election-stock-market-outlook-strategy-2024-11">has zoomed higher</a> since President-elect Donald Trump's win last week, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> notching a quick 5% gain.Yet, while Trump's win opens the stock market to potentially more upside <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">via tax cuts and deregulation</a>, it also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-risk-outlook-trump-deportation-tariff-anthony-scaramucci-2024-11">makes it more vulnerable to other risks.</a>According to chief market economist John Higgins of Capital Economics, the biggest risk looming for the S&amp;P 500 is China, specifically, its potential reaction to another Trump trade war."Perhaps the biggest risk to the S&amp;P 500, given that a bubble in the index has been inflated by hype around AI, would be a retaliatory clampdown by China on US big-tech firms' operations in its territory," Higgins wrote in a Monday note.During his campaign trail, Trump proposed a 60% tariff on all goods imported from China, which would be a sharp escalation from the 25% tariffs he placed on a select list of goods during his first administration.If Trump's proposed 60% tariff against China is enacted and the country responds aggressively, it would likely pressure some of America's most important companies, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a>, which manufacture and sell their products in the country.China can do anything from restricting the sale of goods from American companies within its country to disrupting American companies' manufacturing operations.But Higgins believes that's an unlikely outcome, as an escalating trade war would hit China's already struggling economy."Retaliating in that way would undermine the image China has been trying to cultivate of a responsible superpower," Higgins said, adding that if it responds too aggressively to a second round of Trump tariffs, it could lose access to technologies that are integral to AI.Instead, China would likely take a more targeted approach in responding to a second round of Trump tariffs."We suspect China would retaliate in more subtle ways, such as restricting supply of rare earth metals and older generation semiconductor chips," Higgins said.

The biggest risk to stocks after Trump's victory is China's reaction to a trade war, research firm says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Semiconductor stocks fell on Tuesday as Super Micro Computer and AMD and Super Micro led a sell-off.</li><li>Super Micro tanked as much as 34% after its auditor resigned.</li></ul>It's a rough day to be a semiconductor stock.The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index tumbled 3% on Wednesday, led by plunges in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/smci-stock ">Super Micro Computer</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/smci-stock ">Advanced Micro Devices</a>.Super Micro tanked as much as 34% after its auditor, Ernst &amp; Young, resigned from working with the firm."We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management," the accounting firm said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001375365/5fac8065-2e9b-4894-a162-41aebeaedf55.pdf">filing</a>.The firm is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/justice-department-probes-server-maker-super-micro-computer-2ca6a4d3?st=6vp2d7d9r9am3p9&amp;reflink=article_copyURL_share">reportedly under investigation</a> by the Department of Justice after a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/super-micro-computer-stock-plunges-delays-annual-10k-financial-filing-2024-8">scathing report</a> from Hindenburg Research targeted the company, alleging that it has poor internal accounting controls.In perhaps a more ominous sign for the broader chipmaking sector, AMD slid as much as 10% at intraday lows after the company's fourth-quarter guidance came in below analyst expectations."The next few quarters going into 2025, I think we expect that the environment will continue to be tight, but we've also planned for significant growth going into 2025," CEO Lisa Su said during the firm's conference call.That weakness bled into other major chipmaker stocks, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/broadcom_2-stock">Broadcom</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/intc-stock">Intel</a> also sliding as much as 2% at lows.

Chipmakers are having a terrible day in the stock market

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes slipped on Wednesday led by a sell-off in chip stocks.</li><li>Alphabet rose after delivering a big earnings beat.</li></ul>US stock ended lower on Wednesday as encouraging tech earnings were eclipsed by a sell-off among semiconductor shares. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/goog-stock">Alphabet's</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10#:~:text=Revenue%20from%20Google%20Cloud%20grew,%25%20in%20after%2Dhours%20trading.&amp;text=Alphabet%20and%20Google%20CEO%20Sundar,investments%20were%20%22paying%20off.%22">big earnings beat</a> helped send its stock up almost 3% in the session, but major indexes fell as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-amd-smci-super-micro-stock-auditor-earnings-report-guidance-2024-10?_gl=1*1ys7uu1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE4MDQ4LjYwLjAuMA..">chipmakers suffered losses.</a>AMD and Super Micro Computer led the rout. The former fell on weak fourth-quarter guidance, while Super Micro plummeted on news that its auditor resigned due to company concerns. AMD dropped almost 11%, while SMCI plunged 33%. However, investors have more big tech earnings to look forward to.Shares of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Microsoft</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Meta</a> traded higher as traders anticipated their <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">financial results</a> on after the closing bell. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Amazon</a> are on deck to report after the close on Thursday.Macroeconomic data released on Wednesday highlighted ongoing strength in the US economy, diluting concern that interest rates might need to drop quickly to propel growth.Third-quarter US real GDP came in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-economy-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">at an annualized rate of 2.8%</a>, driven by a strong consumer. PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, reached 2.2% — close to the central bank's target rate of 2%."This is excellent on the GDP, particularly when you look at the consumer spending," economist Claudia Sahm told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-30/gdp-report-not-one-to-be-afraid-of-economist-claudia-sahm">Bloomberg TV</a>. "It's not just one quarter: we have now put together four quarters that are about three percent growth in consumer spending, inflation-adjusted. "The labor market also appears strong, as ADP hiring rose by its fastest rate in over a year. The data potentially sets the stage for another big nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which will help inform the Fed's next move at its November 6-7 policy meeting. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,813.67, down 0.33% <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,141.54, down 0.22% (-91.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,607.93, down 0.56% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-us-vs-canada-david-rosenberg-bull-rally-2024-10?_gl=1*w92gmg*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE1OTIyLjU5LjAuMA..">Top economist David Rosenberg says Canadian stocks look poised to outperform the S&amp;P 500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-undervalued-9-trillion-ai-spend-masayoshi-son-softbank-2024-10?_gl=1*15nw6jj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE2MDk0LjQ0LjAuMA..">Nvidia is undervalued as $9 trillion is still needed for superintelligent AI,</a> SoftBank's CEO said.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-manufacturing-production-boom-economy-made-in-america-trade-war-2024-10">US industrial re-shoring could be a $10 trillion economic opportunity,</a> according to Morgan Stanley.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil jumped 2.38% to $68.81 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 2.31% at $72.76 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> inched up 0.59% to $2,797.6 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield stayed essentially flat at 4.282%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> eased by 1.43% to $71,786.57</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes slide as chipmaker rout drags tech ahead of key earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation has come down from pandemic highs, but one economist isn't expecting a return to 2%.</li><li>Rate cuts and other changes in the economy point to 3%+ long-term inflation, says Steven Blitz.</li></ul>For the last decade or so, the Federal Reserve's magic number for inflation has been 2%.The central bank has been aiming to keep the long-run inflation rate at this level to maintain stable prices and a healthy economy.And after the runaway prices of the pandemic era, it seems like the Fed is drawing closer to its 2% goal: the inflation rate was 2.4% for the 12-month period ending in September.However, don't count on a return to the 2% era, said Steven Blitz, chief economist at business intelligence firm GlobalData. Blitz believes the economy is on track for higher, not lower, long-term inflation."I think inflation is going to settle around 3%, 3.5%," Blitz told Business Insider in an interview. "There is now a higher base inflation rate than there was before COVID for a number of reasons."The Fed's rate-cutting campaign is certainly a contributing factor to higher future inflation, in Blitz's opinion. In the past, runaway inflation has only returned to 2% after the Fed engineered a hard landing that slowed consumer spending and wage growth, Blitz said. Financial historian <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-powell-mistake-1970s-runaway-stagflation-unemployment-interest-rates-2024-10">Mark Higgins</a> points out that when the Fed cut rates too quickly in the 1960s, inflation spiked and contributed to stagflation in the 1970s.But there are other factors contributing to an increased long-term inflation rate, many of which Blitz tracked even before the pandemic.Debt levels are creeping up, generating an inflationary effect by increasing demand and prices for goods. In terms of consumer and business debt, after the Great Financial Crisis, households and businesses focused on deleveraging their balance sheets, but this trend started reversing after the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2018, Blitz said. Reduced taxes incentivized spending and also increased the national debt. A higher national debt balance can erode confidence in the dollar, further increasing inflation.Changing demographics in the workplace are also driving increasing debt and higher long-term inflation, according to Blitz.The workforce is getting younger as Gen Z employees enter the market and baby boomers and Gen X employees retire, resulting in growing spending power from Gen Z.As millennials age and gain more income, they're entering their prime homebuying years."They're in that part of their life where they normally leverage their balance sheets to take in physical assets," Blitz said. And as more millennials start families and have children, their expenditures will only continue to increase. These demographic changes will stoke consumer demand and, subsequently, inflation.And lastly, inflation is creeping up thanks to changes in international trade, Blitz said. Import penetration, or the amount of foreign goods flowing into the US, is reaching a plateau. Importing cheap goods from overseas has a disinflationary effect by decreasing prices paid by consumers.Blitz believes import penetration in the US is near or has already reached peak levels, meaning that the deflationary impacts of international trade will be muted in the future. With trends such as nearshoring and reshoring driving companies to move their operations closer to domestic markets, import penetration could certainly decline.In Blitz's perspective, all of these factors add up to an inflation rate exceeding 2% going forward.<h2 id="42586d83-d9bb-4112-b404-1a3b9311f18b">Investing for higher inflation</h2>Investors could start seeing persistent inflation take hold within the next year, according to Blitz. The September jobs report is already one early sign of sticky inflation, especially wage inflation, in his opinion.There are a few ways that investors can prepare their portfolios.In a high-interest-rate environment, bonds are less attractive, Blitz said. Bonds suffer from inflation risk because inflation eats into interest rate payments, reducing their real yield. Higher inflation also pushes up yields as investors demand higher compensation, reducing the value of the assets.Instead, look towards the stock market, he said. While increased inflation might hurt the stock market overall, there are some pockets of equities that will benefit. Technology and value stocks typically perform well in the wake of higher inflation, according to Blitz.In a high-inflation environment, companies look to put their capital into more durable investments as the dollar depreciates. Blitz believes the chip industry in particular is an inflation-resilient choice because they supply assets critical to many supply chains.High inflation can be a boon to value stocks because it boosts businesses' margins."In a lower inflation environment, it's harder to grow revenue off of the nominal growth of the economy," Blitz said. That results in outperformance from growth stocks, which investors anticipate will increase profits at a substantially higher pace relative to the rest of the market.In a 3% to 3.5% inflation environment, there's more opportunity for overlooked value stocks to appreciate. High-quality value stocks with stable margins will actually receive a lift from rising prices, especially if they have good cost management, Blitz said.Those looking to increase their exposure to these areas of the stock market can do so through funds such as the iShares Semiconductor ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-semiconductor-etf-us4642875235?miRedirects=1">SOXX</a>) and the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/vanguard-value-index-fund-etf-shares-us9229087443?miRedirects=1">VTV</a>).

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