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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla stock is down 7% since it reported third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Wednesday. </li><li>JPMorgan sees the stock drifting even lower, by as much as 48% to its $130 price target.</li></ul>JPMorgan raised its price target for Tesla stock — but the bank still sees shares of Elon Musk's electric carmaker falling almost 50% in the coming year. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/TSLA-stock">Tesla</a> stock is down 7% since it reported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q3-deliveries-preview-wall-street-expects-beat-mojo-returns-2024-9">third-quarter vehicle deliveries</a> on Wednesday, but JPMorgan thinks it can go much lower.In a Thursday note, the bank set its December 2025 Tesla stock price target to $130, representing potential downside of 48% from Wednesday's close.That target is a slight increase from the bank's prior target of $115 a share.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> analyst Ryan Brinkman, Tesla could be on the verge of not growing its full-year unit volumes for the first time ever."The continued softer trend now appears to position Tesla to potentially not grow full year unit volumes for the first time in its history, which we estimate could cause incrementally more investors to reconsider the company's growth stock multiple," Brinkman said.Year-to-date, Tesla has delivered 1.29 million vehicles. To exceed its 2023 vehicle delivery volumes of 1.81 million vehicles, the company would have to deliver more than 520,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which is more than what Wall Street analysts expect.Consensus estimates on Wall Street are tracking at about 500,000 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said.Meanwhile, the most vehicles Tesla has ever delivered in a quarter is 484,507, which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2023.Brinkman believes Tesla's potential inability to grow vehicle deliveries this year, which CEO Elon Musk has previously said should grow at an annual rate of 50% for the long term, could cause investors "to pay more attention to the growing gap between fundamentals and valuation."And even with its $130 price target, Brinkman believes that's a generous valuation for the automaker."Despite implying material downside risk, we feel our valuation analysis, nevertheless, generously values Tesla as the world's most valuable automaker, given it is suggestive of a ~$400 market capitalization vs. Toyota $290 bn despite considerably less earnings and cash flow and given the company's stalled automotive growth over the past two years makes it harder to embrace the hyper growth story," Brinkman concluded.Of course, while Brinkman has been a longtime Tesla bear, the bulls view it as less of a traditional automaker and more of a technology company.Tesla is set to host an event on October 10 to showcase its robotaxi plans. Meanwhile, Tesla bull Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley has speculated that Tesla can grow its valuation by selling its own phone and even drones."Is it just me, or are you seeing more 'breadcrumbs' from Tesla's CEO that could potentially connect Tesla with aviation?" Jonas asked in a note earlier this week.This differing view among analysts — over whether Tesla is an automaker or a tech company — explains the widening gulf between price targets among the bears and the bulls. Jonas has a $310 price target for Tesla stock, more than double Brinkman's $130 target.

JPMorgan just raised its price target for Tesla — but it still expects a 48% crash in the stock

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street's bullishness for Nvidia stock endures even as shares trade at record highs. </li><li>Analysts are upbeat about the next-gen Blackwell chip and Nvidia's web of enterprise partnerships.</li></ul>Nvidia stock is trading at record highs, but that's not deterring top Wall Street analysts from being bullish. Bank analysts have been hiking their price targets for the chip titan in recent weeks, predicting more upside even as the stock has seen a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-blackwell-ai-market-value-costco-jensen-huang-2024-10">meteoric rise</a> over the past year.Shares traded above $142 each on Monday, hitting a fresh record as investors gear up for the company's next earnings report on November 20. The stock is up 193% year-to-date. But Nvidia still has plenty of room to climb, according to forecasters. They point to signs of frenzied demand for the company's AI-enabling GPU chips and a long list of partnerships with enterprise "hyperscalers." Here's what some of Wall Street's top forecasters are saying about their bullish outlook for the stock. <h3 id="724900f4-99db-4302-98bd-dea4cac3d847">Bank of America, $190 price target</h3>BofA strategists <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-upside-growth-ai-chips-demand-bofa-2024-10#:~:text=Bank%20of%20America%20analysts%20raised,helped%20by%20its%20enterprise%20partnerships.">raised their price target</a> for the chipmaker to $190 from $165 per share last week, implying another 35% upside from the stock's current levels.The upside will be driven by Nvidia's competitive advantage over other chipmakers, as well as the "generational opportunity" in the AI market, which is expected to grow to $400 billion, analysts said in a note."Driven by our increased NVDA Data Center Compute outlook, we now see the AI accelerator market growing to $280bn by CY27E (and over time toward $400bn+) from just ~$45bn in CY23. AI models (demand) continue to evolve," the bank added.Strategists pointed to positive signs for Nvidia's future chip demand, including commentary from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-impact-q1-earnings-season-ai-nvda-stock-price-capex-2024-5">other tech firms</a> and comments from CEO Jensen Huang, who described the demand for Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell chip as "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-jensen-huang-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-2024-10">insane</a>."Nvidia, meanwhile, also has a number of "underappreciated" business partnerships with firms like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/acn-stock">Accenture</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-reaction-microsoft-partnership-for-minecraft-graphics-overhaul-2019-8">Microsoft</a>, which should contribute to the upside potential. "We also highlight a growing presence of AI in enterprise, where NVDA is the partner of choice," the bank said. "NVDA's engagements span multiple verticals (e.g., Accenture, ServiceNow, Microsoft), and offerings such as AI Foundry, AI Hubs, NIMs are key levers to its AI leadership, not only on the hardware side but also on systems/ecosystems side."<h3 id="6a528da2-bcac-4a58-87fb-9d0b14415a80">Goldman Sachs, $150 price target</h3>Goldman analysts raised their price target to $150 from $135 a share, implying 6% upside from the stock's current levels.Strategists said they changed their price target after a meeting with Huang. The Nvidia CEO spoke of the company's advantage over other chipmakers, and the bank said that Nvidia's "competitive moat" is built on the firm's installed base, its innovation, and its "robust and growing" software offerings. "Although we acknowledge that the company's revenue trajectory beyond CY2025 remains uncertain, we expect the stock to perform at least consistent with estimate revisions given relative valuation multiples that remain depressed relative to history ... and the potential for a re-acceleration in fundamentals driven by the upcoming Blackwell product cycle," strategists wrote.Blackwell could also help produce several billion dollars in revenue for Nvidia, the strategists estimated."By integrating seven chips, and each playing a role in delivering higher performance at the data center level, we view the introduction and ramp of Blackwell not only as a near- and medium-term revenue growth driver, but also a dynamic that extends Nvidia's competitive advantage. The ramp of Blackwell-based products remains on track with several billion dollars in revenue expected in the January quarter followed by further growth in April and beyond."<h3 id="7231a134-d8fb-40e0-8065-37b2205636b4">CFRA Research, $160 price target</h3>The research firm CFRA raised its price target to $160 from $139 per share, implying a 13% upside from current levels. According to Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA, that's due to increased confidence that Nvidia will post better-than-expected growth, particularly as customers scramble to get their hands on the new Blackwell chip."The higher multiple and target reflect our higher conviction that NVDA will post results that exceed our/consensus views in CY 25, as Blackwell ramps. As we previously cited, Blackwell will take greater wallet share from hyperscalers (e.g., greater GPU, CPU, networking, and software revenue) amid an AI war in the cloud," Zino wrote.<h3 id="1efd5f91-dce2-45d4-bfa2-1ada5f7366f2">Bernstein, $155 price target</h3>Bernstein raised its price target to $155 a share shortly after the chipmaker reported its second-quarter earnings in August. Similar to other firms' forecasts, Bernstein's upside prediction is based on the success of the Blackwell GPU. "People are getting excited about the story again, especially as we approach earnings, and then year-end into next year is their new platform, Blackwell, really starts to ramp. Look, by all indications, their own commentary, all the supply checks and everything else, demand for this product just looks off the charts," Rasgon said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SM8AcE18AN0">CNBC</a> in early October. "This cycle, if the checks are any indication, must potentially be massive," he added.

Wall Street keeps raising price targets for sky-high Nvidia stock. Here's why analysts are still so bullish. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs raised its S&amp;P 500 year-end price target to 6,000, implying a 5% gain.</li><li>The increase follows the previous price target raises from 4,700 to 5,200 and then to 5,600.</li></ul>Strategists at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs</a> raised their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> year-end price target for the third time this year.In a note on Friday, Goldman's David Kostin said he now expects the S&amp;P 500 to finish the year at 6,000, representing the second-highest target among Wall Street strategists.With the S&amp;P 500 trading at around 5,720, Kostin's target implies a potential return of about 5% with just under three months left in the year. The price target increase comes after Kostin and his team set an initial year-end S&amp;P 500 price target of 4,700 late last year. The team then raised their price target to 5,200 in February and once again to 5,600 in June.Kostin also raised the bank's 12-month S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,300 from 6,000."The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said. "We expect sales will grow by 5%, roughly in line with nominal GDP growth. However, we now expect 78 bp of net margin expansion in 2025, compared with 24 bp previously."Kostin said his assumptions are based on a relatively "steady" macro economic outlook, with US real GDP growing at an average pace of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.At the micro level, Kostin highlighted three reasons he expects higher corporate profits in the year ahead.First, Kostin said idiosyncratic charges and write-downs for a handful of S&amp;P 500 companies weighed on corporate profits in 2024 and should moderate in 2025. Those companies include <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bmy-stock">Bristol-Myers Squibb</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gild-stock">Gilead</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wbd-stock">Warner Bros. Discovery.</a>Second, Kostin believes a recovery in the semiconductor cycle should boost technology companies' earnings per share in 2025."Shipments of integrated circuits excluding memory chips, a predictor of Semis margins, are roughly 10% below their historical trend. Reversion to trend should lead to margin expansion through 2026," Kostin explained.Finally, mega-cap tech companies should continue to see solid profit growth, in part thanks to AI trends."While the magnitude of beats may moderate, the recent GS Communacopia Conference indicated strong ongoing AI demand that should benefit these stocks," Kostin said.Kostin's price target forecasts assume the S&amp;P 500 continues to trade at a premium valuation of about 22x forward earnings. If that earnings multiple drops, it would threaten Kostin's bullish outlook."If prospects for growth weaken, the S&amp;P 500 could trade at 18x (5400, 6% downside)," Kostin said.

Goldman Sachs bumps its S&P 500 price target for the 3rd time this year as it sees higher corporate profits ahead

US short-seller <keyword id="20016892" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindenburg-Research" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Hindenburg Research" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Hindenburg Research">Hindenburg Research</keyword> has alleged that it suspects <keyword id="19901201" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sebi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Sebi" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Sebi">SEBI</keyword>'s unwillingness to act against <keyword id="19955648" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Group" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Adani Group">Adani Group</keyword> may be because of its head Madhabi Puri Buch had stakes in <keyword id="20311680" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="offshore-funds" source="keywords">offshore funds</keyword> linked to the conglomerate - an allegation that the SEBI head called "baseless" and an attempt of "character assassination". Hindenburg alleged that Buch and her husband had undisclosed investments in <keyword id="22746661" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="obscure-offshore" source="keywords">obscure offshore</keyword> funds in Bermuda and Mauritius, the same entities allegedly used by <keyword id="20283220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vinod-Adani" source="keywords">Vinod Adani</keyword> - the elder brother of group chairman Gautam Adani - to round-trip funds and inflate stock prices. SEBI in October 2020 began a probe into the shareholding structure of Adani Group companies after red flags were raised over high concentration of foreign holdings in the conglomerate's listed companies. Investigation was launched to determine if the foreign investors are genuine public shareholders or acting as fronts for the promoters. SEBI last year had told a Supreme Court-appointed panel that it was investigating 13 opaque offshore entities that held between 14 per cent and 20 per cent across five publicly traded stocks of the conglomerate. It hasn't stated if the two incomplete probes have since been completed, something which Hindenburg used to attack the market regulator. Madhabi and her husband Dhaval Buch in a joint statement strongly denied the "baseless allegations and insinuations made in the report". The same, they said, "are devoid of any truth". "Our life and finances are an open book," they said. "It is unfortunate that Hindenburg Research against whom SEBI has taken an enforcement action and issued a show cause notice has chosen to attempt character assassination in response to the same." While the statement did not talk on the questions Hindenburg raised over SEBI probe, the duo promised to come out with a detailed response. Hindenburg on Saturday stated that the Madhabi and her husband invested in offshore entities that were allegedly part of a fund structure managed by India Infoline and in which Vinod Adani also had investments. These investments reportedly date back to 2015, well before her appointment as a whole-time member of SEBI in 2017 and the subsequent elevation as chairperson in March 2022. It said Bermuda-based Global Opportunities Fund, which allegedly was used by entities connected to Adani Group to trade in shares of group companies, had sub-funds. Buch and her husband were investors in one of these sub-funds in 2015. Citing "whistleblower documents", Hindenburg said, "<keyword id="22743118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Madhabi-Buch" source="keywords">Madhabi Buch</keyword>, the current chairperson of SEBI, and her husband had stakes in both obscure offshore funds used in the Adani <keyword id="22743230" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="money-siphoning" source="keywords">money siphoning</keyword> scandal." SEBI, it claimed, has "shown a surprising lack of interest in Adani's alleged undisclosed web of Mauritius and offshore shell entities." The Buchs may have first opened their account with IPE Plus Fund 1 on June 5, 2015 in Singapore. IPE fund is a small offshore Mauritius fund set up by Vinod Adani through India Infoline (IIFL), a wealth management firm with ties to the Wirecard embezzlement scandal. "Vinod...used this structure to invest in Indian markets with funds allegedly siphoned from over invoicing of power equipment to Adani Group," claimed Hindenburg. Latching on to the Hindenburg allegations, Congress said the revelations only reinforced its demand for setting up a "joint parliamentary committee to investigate the full scope of the Adani mega scam" while the Trinamool Congress said the SEBI chairperson must resign. In January last year, Hindenburg accused Adani Group of pulling "the largest con in corporate history" by using a web of companies in tax havens to inflate its revenue and manipulate stock prices, even as debt piled up. After the Hindenburg report, the SC asked SEBI to complete its investigation and set up a separate expert panel to look into regulatory lapses. The panel did not give any adverse report on Adani and the apex court too stated that no other probe other than one being done by SEBI was required. On June 26 this year, SEBI in a show cause notice charged Hindenburg of "deliberately sensationalising and distorting certain facts" as well as working with a New York hedge fund to make its bet. Hindenburg had responded to that saying it made just USD 4.1 million from its declared positions on Adani stocks and criticised the regulator for not focusing its investigation into the January 2023 report "providing evidence" of the group creating "a vast network of offshore shell entities" and moving billions of dollars "surreptitiously" into and out of Adani public and private entities. Gautam Adani, who was the world's third-richest man before Hindenburg, in an epic comeback strategy raised USD 15 billion in equity and debt, sold some assets, repaid loans that was raised pledging shares, reined in expenses and refocused energies on core business. Adani is now ranked 12th richest in the world. The group has also made some acquisitions, buying cement company Sanghi Industries and the news agency IANS. Hindenburg on Saturday alleged that just weeks before Buch's appointment to SEBI, her husband requested the transfer of their investments into his sole control, potentially to avoid any scrutiny related to her new regulatory role. The couple's investments were reportedly funnelled through a complex, multi-layered offshore structure, raising questions about their legitimacy and purpose. On March 22, 2017, just weeks ahead of Buch's appointment as SEBI whole-time member, Dhaval wrote to Mauritius fund administrator Trident Trust. That communication was regarding his and his wife's investment in the Global Dynamic Opportunities Fund (GDOF), the US firm alleged. "In the letter, Dhaval requested to "be the sole person authorised to operate the Accounts", seemingly moving the assets out of his wife's name ahead of the politically sensitive appointment," Hindenburg alleged. Dhaval is a senior advisor at Blackstone and at Alvarez &amp; Marsal. He also serves as a non-executive director on the Board of Gildan.

After Adani, Hindenburg targets SEBI chief, she calls allegations baseless, character assassination

<ul class="summary-list"><li>As America's grocery king, Walmart sources a high share of its products from the US.</li><li>Target, by contrast, relies more on merchandise that is often imported, such as apparel and housewares.</li></ul>For all their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-and-target-are-looking-increasingly-similar-these-days-2023-12">similarities</a>, Walmart and Target have key distinctions that could spell big differences in how each would be affected by rising import costs if Donald Trump follows through with his promised tariffs."Target is actually much more exposed than Walmart because Walmart is grocery-heavy and groceries are predominantly domestic," Jason Miller, supply chain professor at Michigan State University, told Business Insider.As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-grocery-sales-us-compared-kroger-albertsons-2024-3">America's grocery king</a>, Walmart US makes nearly 60% of its revenue from the grocery category and only about a quarter of sales from general merchandise.In addition, grocery as a share of sales has been increasing in recent years as the general merchandise share has declined, according to Walmart's annual report.Target, by contrast, relies much more heavily on merchandise that is often imported, such as apparel, housewares, and beauty. Food and beverage sales accounted for less than a quarter of Target's sales last year.TD Cowen retail analyst Oliver Chen told BI that Target's apparel segment presents another potential complication, as fashion is more sensitive to seasonality. That could make it more difficult to pull orders forward ahead of possible tariffs or line up new suppliers in time to still be in style."When you miss apparel timeline, you don't get it back, and Target has more apparel exposure," he said.Beyond its grocery-to-merchandise ratio, Walmart has another key advantage over Target: scale."Walmart is much bigger," Kantar analyst Gina Logan told BI. "And I'm not just talking about sales."They have a much more advanced supply chain," she added. "They have a wider range of suppliers, they have more ability to pivot and predict demand, and can use their automation and forecasting in order to react to this in a much faster, more predictive way than Target."This is not the first time the Spark has found <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-finding-groove-should-terrify-target-2024-5">a competitive advantage</a> over the Bullseye in the grocery aisle.When US shoppers began to cut spending back in 2023, prioritizing essentials like groceries in their weekly budgets, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-sales-boom-target-slides-as-shoppers-shift-to-groceries-2023-8">sales at Walmart chugged along while Target struggled</a>.Target has since found success by taking a much more <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-lowers-prices-battles-walmart-customers-shopping-for-deals-2024-5">Walmart-like stance with price cuts and bargain brands</a>, and its share of grocery sales has increased by 1-2 percentage points per year over the last three years.Logan says tariffs, if announced by the Trump administration, would likely push Target harder into the grocery game, especially with its portfolio of private-label food brands.Target and Walmart both report earnings next week. Walmart declined to comment for this story, citing the quiet period, and Target did not respond to BI's request.The last time the companies' executives discussed tariffs on earnings calls was in 2019, according to data from AlphaSense.At the time, Walmart said it would not raise prices on food impacted by tariffs and would instead look to offset the cost elsewhere."As a guest-focused retailer," Target CEO Brian Cornell said in May 2019, "we're concerned about tariffs because they lead to higher prices on everyday products for American families."He later said in a November call that then-President Trump's tariffs were amounting to $50 million to $60 million in added costs per quarter, adding that "obviously we're all facing the same tariff issues together."But as Target's and Walmart's financials show, not everyone is likely to be impacted by potential tariff increases to the same degree.

Here's why Target is more exposed than Walmart to the sweeping trade changes that Trump promised

<ul class="summary-list"><li>While Democrats touted job growth under Biden, Trump won over voters facing high prices.</li><li>A BI analysis found real wages declined in states that had the biggest swings toward Trump.</li></ul>High prices dominated voters' minds this election cycle — and they likely played a key role in handing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">President-elect Donald Trump</a> his victory.On the campaign trail, Trump clashed with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris over their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">handling of the economy</a>.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">Unemployment</a> sharply fell during the first year of Biden's term and has remained low. Biden <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/11/01/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-october-2024-jobs-report/">oversaw the creation of 16 million new jobs</a> during his term as of October, and his administration frequently touted that growth.But <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> also spiked during the early years of Biden's presidency, before its pace gradually slowed, creeping toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target.Trump told voters he would provide relief to their wallets across the board, from groceries to housing."I am promising low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates, secure borders, low, low, low crime and surging incomes for citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?538141-1/president-trump-remarks-economic-club-york">said</a> during remarks in September. "My plan will rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices, and reignite explosive economic growth."That promise resonated: Real, or inflation-adjusted, wage growth — or lack thereof — across the country shows a possible reason why.Many states where Trump most improved his margins saw large declines in real wages under Biden. Increases in wages were more than offset by higher living costs in these states.Counties with higher costs of living also voted for Trump more than they did in 2020.<h2 id="592a8bc6-249e-4af5-904c-d806f3ba6a2f">How Trump won on prices</h2>Business Insider looked at how average hourly earnings for private employees have changed in each state from January 2021, when Biden took office, to this past September. BI adjusted 2021 amounts using <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/regional-resources.htm">Census-division-level inflation</a> to understand how much real wages have changed across the US. Rhode Island had the highest real wage growth, just one of around a dozen states that saw an increase.Using the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html">2020</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html">2024</a> share of Trump votes by state reported by The New York Times, BI found that states with bigger real wage drops tended to have bigger shifts to Trump than other states.Some of the biggest swings came in heavily blue, expensive states. New York, which saw an 8.3% real wage decline and which has a high cost of living, also had a 6.5 percentage point increase in Trump's vote share from 2020 to 2024. Maryland, which saw an 11.2% real wage decline, swung toward Trump in 2024 by 5 percentage points.The nation's capital was an outlier. Real wages massively fell in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/real-personal-consumption-expenditures-state-and-real-personal-income-state-and">costly</a> Washington, DC; even before adjusting for inflation wages were roughly flat. While Trump did see a small uptick in the share of DC votes for him in 2024, it was one of the lowest percentage point increases based on BI's analysis.The cost of living and unemployment levels also factored into voters' feelings as they headed to the polls. Jed Kolko, an economist who served in the Biden administration, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.slowboring.com/p/breaking-down-the-election-results">wrote</a> in Matthew Yglesias' "Slow Boring" column that higher unemployment levels in US counties over the past year matched a swing in county votes toward Trump.The same goes with the cost of living: "Counties with a higher cost of living swung more toward Trump in 2024 relative to 2020. Expensive counties tend to be blue places like big coastal cities; Harris won most of these pricey counties, but by a smaller margin than Biden did in 2020, when controlling for demographics, education, and density," Kolko wrote.Kolko also found that local job growth did not have a significant relationship to voting patterns, while local federal spending from Biden's signature infrastructure and industrial investment programs did not appear to impact county election results either.Some experts have said that Trump's tariff policies would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">stoke inflation and raise consumer prices</a>. Trump has instead argued that his policies would help with costs, promising voters they will see improvements once he takes office."Prices will come down," Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/20/business/trump-inflation-prices-deflation/index.html">said</a> during an August speech. "You just watch: They'll come down, and they'll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything."

Democrats wished the election was about jobs. Trump's win showed it was about prices.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Target managed to return to sales growth in the second quarter, ending a yearlong slide.</li><li>The retailer said it offers strong value for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-budget-era-value-retail-walmart-target-tj-maxx-2024-8">customers who are more careful about their spending</a>.</li></ul>Target just pulled off a much-needed win.Faced with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-comparable-sales-down-four-straight-quarters-2024-5">a year of declining comparable sales</a>, the retailer notched its first quarterly growth of 2% in spite of an increasingly challenging consumer economy."American families continue to deal with a lot. These pressures are clearly weighing on them, and they're looking for a refuge from the everyday stress that they're feeling," Target's chief commercial officer, Rick Gomez, said Wednesday during the company's earnings call."Yes, they're budget conscious, and yes, they're hunting for deals and everyday value, but they're also willing to shop when they find that right combination of fashion and newness at the right price," he added.Shoppers are clearly finding refuge (and excitement) at Target, ramping up their number of transactions by 3% thanks in large part to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-cutting-prices-summer-list-walmart-target-amazon-aldi-walgreens-2024-6">aggressive promotions</a>, personalized deals, and the convenience of drive-up.CEO Brian Cornell said shoppers have made nearly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shoppers-spend-longer-costco-than-target-walmart-data-2024-8">a billion trips to Target</a> this year so far, up 20% since 2019.Cornell attributed these increased visits to the "special bond" Target has forged with shoppers looking for the brand's trademark combination of style, convenience, and bargain prices."Target's results will also come as a general relief for the retail economy and is another proof point that while consumers remain constrained and cautious they are not in recession mode," GlobalData retail analyst Neil Saunders said in a note. "As a retailer that is more skewed towards discretionary purchases, Target is a more important signaler than Walmart in this regard."Beyond cutting prices, last quarter's results also benefitted from Target's decision to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-circle-360-membership-price-unlimited-same-day-delivery-2024-3">expand and simplify its free-to-join loyalty program</a>, which added 2 million members in the period.Through the Circle program, the company is better able to target deals to individual shoppers, and Gomez said Target offered four times as many personalized offers as it did a year ago.In addition, Cornell said two thirds of transactions during Target Circle Week in July were from loyalty members.David Silverman, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said in an analyst note that his agency expects this loyalty push <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-lowers-prices-battles-walmart-customers-shopping-for-deals-2024-5">could help Target gain market share</a> in the coming years.Even with the uncertainty in the broader marketplace, this strategy is clearly working well for Target, and Cornell said the company intends to double-down in the coming months."We're going to continue to play offense, we're going to look to drive traffic into our stores and business to our site, and make sure we deliver great value along with newness for our guests throughout the season," the Target CEO said.If you are a Target worker who wants to share your perspective, please <a target="_blank" href="mailto:dreuter@businessinsider.com">contact Dominick via email</a> or text/call/Signal at 646.768.4750. Responses will be kept confidential, and Business Insider strongly recommends using a personal email and a non-work device when reaching out.

Target's plan to lock in shoppers is working brilliantly

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Target posted its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-comparable-sales-down-four-straight-quarters-2024-5">fourth consecutive quarter of comparable sales declines</a> on Wednesday.</li><li>The retailer increasingly appears to be losing market share to Walmart.</li></ul>America's top two big-box retailers have borrowed quite a few <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-and-target-are-looking-increasingly-similar-these-days-2023-12">strategies from one another</a> over the past year, with different degrees of success.Walmart has augmented its reputation for low prices with a number of Target-coded improvements such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-opens-new-neighborhood-markets-with-larger-layout-2024-5">refreshed stores</a>, upscale product assortment, and smoother e-commerce options to see strong gains among higher-income shoppers.Target's imitation game isn't faring so well.The Bullseye retailer posted its fourth consecutive quarter of comparable sales declines on Wednesday, a stark contrast to Walmart's year of strong comp gains.The numbers indicate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-finding-groove-should-terrify-target-2024-5">Walmart (among others) may be picking Target's pocket</a> in terms of market share as inflation-weary consumers hunt for the best value for their dollar.Clearly something more urgent needs to be done if Target CEO Brian Cornell is going to fulfill his promise to return to comparable sales growth in the current quarter.The most recent move came Monday when Target <a target="_blank" href="https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-will-help-consumers-save-big-by-lowering-prices-on-5,000-frequently-shopped-items">announced</a> a batch of markdowns on thousands of commonly purchased items ranging from butter to baby wipes. Cornell said on the earnings call that the first round of 5%-30% reductions will collectively save shoppers "millions of dollars" this summer, with more to come.In addition, Target's app and website now feature a Walmart-ian detail intended to convey savings: strikethrough prices that show item discounts."We believe that pricing and value transparency will only become more important with time and that we can continue to grow awareness of the great value we offer across our assortment," Target's chief growth officer Christina Hennington told investors.Of course, those strikethroughs appear most frequently for members of the brand's free-to-join Circle membership program, which was revamped last quarter to include <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-circle-360-membership-price-unlimited-same-day-delivery-2024-3">a paid tier for unlimited delivery</a> that looks eerily similar to Walmart+. (Incidentally, Target+ refers to the company's third-party e-commerce marketplace offering.)Confused yet? Wait until you hear about the company's competing private-label strategies.Earlier this year, Target went after budget-minded buyers with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-new-dollar-store-budget-brand-dealworthy-clothes-beauty-electronics-2024-2">a new line of essentials under the Dealworthy brand</a>. Then late last month, Walmart took a shot at Target's Good &amp; Gather-owned brand with an all-new upscale private label called Bettergoods.While Walmart's Bettergoods appears to be winning over more customers, Hennington said Dealworthy is filling a critical spot in Target's range of products, and it's only just getting started."Where we've made surgical investment in supporting price points that were missing from our assortment, the guest is responding right away," she said. "When we introduced the right price points in Dealworthy, the guests noticed immediately and that drove unit and traffic acceleration in those categories."Hennington also said the company is taking the opportunity to upgrade some of the offerings in its more established Up and Up brand."We've reformulated 40% of the products to add quality," she said. "Our star ratings and our reviews on <a target="_blank" href="http://Target.com">Target.com</a> have accelerated meaningfully as the guests have taken notice."While the Targetification of Walmart is well underway and yielding good results for the retail juggernaut, the Walmartification of Target looks like it's still in early stages.This summer will be a significant test of whether Target can win back some of the shoppers who have shifted over the past year toward Walmart — plus attract a few new ones.

Target is lowering prices and boosting its budget brands as it battles Walmart for shoppers on the hunt for deals

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia is committed to boosting oil output in December, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">FT reported</a>.</li><li>The kingdom is resigning itself to a period a lower prices, sources told the FT.</li></ul>A report that Saudi Arabia would ditch its unofficial crude price target sent crude oil prices sharply lower on Thursday.According to sources that spoke with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">Financial Times</a>, the kingdom will no longer seek a $100 per barrel price and is instead ready to increase oil output.Speculation has mounted over what the world's largest oil exporter may do. Even as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members have progressively<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surprise-oil-cutbacks-send-prices-soaring-30-year-oil-expert-2023-11"> cut oil output</a> to prop up global pricing, waning demand pushed crude to its lowest level since 2021 earlier this month.Despite this, those familiar with the matter said that Riyadh is prepared to boost output as scheduled on December 1. In essence, the kingdom is giving in to lower prices, FT sources said.Markets spiraled on the news, dropping over 3%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell as low as $70.7 as of 11:00 am ET. An even steeper decline hit US West Texas Intermediate, hitting $67 a barrel.The kingdom's decision may seem counterintuitive, as the $100 per barrel threshold <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/crude-oil-prices-demand-collapse-saudi-arabia-production-russia-opec-2023-9">is considered essential</a> to financing the Saudi budget. Yet, sources told FT that Riyadh is no longer comfortable ceding its market share to other producers by limiting production.OPEC's joint efforts to support higher prices have also been made difficult by the fact that some coalition members have partially disregarded the restrictions. One source told FT that, if countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan do not commit to curbing supply, Riyadh may unwind its own cuts quicker than expected.Under the current plan, Saudi Arabia will boost its monthly production by 83,000 barrels per day each month from December.Prices have stayed low as China, a key consumer of global oil, has signaled a lackluster appetite for the commodity.According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-25/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-sept-26">Bloomberg</a>, developments in Libya also added to Thursday's oil plunge.The country agreed to appoint a new central bank governor, ending a deadlock between rival administrations. The eastern-based faction has committed to reopening the country's oil fields in response, a move that could bring more crude output back online.

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