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<ul><li>India's <keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">retail inflation</keyword> in November, declined below 6%, which is in RBI's comfort zone.</li><li>India's retail inflation hit an an 11-month low in November. </li><li>The central bank had so far already hiked the key policy rate by 225 basis points since May, to 6.25%. </li></ul>New Delhi [India], December 12 (ANI): India's retail inflation rate based on Consumer Price Index declined to 5.88 per cent in November from 6.77 per cent during the previous month, according to data released on Monday by the ministry of statistics. This essentially means retail inflation in India is now at an 11-month low and it declined below 6 per cent, which is in RBI's comfort zone. The central bank had so far already hiked the key policy rate by 225 basis points since May to 6.25 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation that has stayed above the RBI's upper tolerance limit for over three quarters now. Under the flexible inflation targeting framework introduced in 2016, the RBI is deemed to have failed in managing price rises if the CPI-based inflation is outside the 2-6 per cent range for three quarters in a row. An out-of-turn meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India was held in early November to discuss and draft the report to be sent to the central government for having failed in maintaining the inflation mandate. The meeting was called under Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act 1934, which pertains to steps to be taken if the central bank fails to meet its inflation-targeting mandate. Further details about the special meeting are not officially in the public domain.

India's November retail inflation at 5.88%, within RBI's comfort band

The <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) can argue its case strongly with the Central government as to why the <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> was not controlled at 4 per cent, said experts. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on November 3 to discuss what it would tell the Centre as to why it was not able to restrain the inflation. The RBI may also sound out the Central government as to the course of inflation as well as the reasons as to why it may be at the elevated levels. In <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>, the retail inflation rose to 7.41 per cent in September. Experts were of the view that a combination of global and local (glocal) factors -- geopolitical developments, crop production, reduction in crude oil production and the resulting price increase and depreciating rupee -- are expected to heat up the prices. The RBI on its part is trying to contain the inflation by increasing the repo rate -- the rate at which it lends to the banks. The central bank has increased the repo rate by 190 basis points in recent times and the last one was by 50 basis points last month. "There is a strong case for the RBI arguing that (a) inflation has primarily been caused by supply side shocks with global commodity prices having an impact (b) rupee depreciation has added to imported inflation (c) the RBI on its part was proactive in raising rates even between two policies as it did in May when it saw things were going out of hand post Ukraine war and (d) there have been some measures like increase in goods and services tax (GST) which has added to inflation that was happening in parallel," Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, told IANS. "Therefore, there is an explanation as to why inflation was high. But the central bank has been acting to bring it down through the instruments it has like repo and CRR (cash reserve ratio). It has succeeded in lowering surplus liquidity too which can be proved," Sabnavis added. "The RBI can say that inflation is due to supply side constraints a nd excess liquidity," says K. Ramasubramanian, retired General Manager, RBI, and a forex advisor. "In addition, there was a huge sale of forex almost Rs 3 lakh crore to maintain the exchange rate. Inflation which was more than the target continuously for three quarters is estimated to come around 6 per cent by three more quarters. Interest rates (repo rate) have been increased almost 1.9 per cent. As such the MPC may only be constrained to say that the present steps taken need some more time for having a positive impact to reduce inflation. This is subject to the time inconsistency impact," he added. The RBI has scheduled the November 3 meeting of MPC under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act. As per the said Section, when the RBI fails to meet the inflation target, it shall send a report to the central government listing: (a) the reasons for failure to achieve the inflation target; (b) remedial actions proposed to be taken by it; and (c) an estimate of the time-period within which the inflation target shall be achieved pursuant to timely implementation of proposed remedial actions. As per the RBI Act the MPC shall determine the Policy Rate required to achieve the inflation target. Further as per the RBI Act, the central bank shall organise at least four meetings of the MPC in a year. Announcing the credit policy RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "There are also upside risks to food prices. Cereal price pressure is spreading from wheat to rice due to the likely lower kharif paddy production. "The lower sowing for kharif pulses could also cause some pressures. The delayed withdrawal of monsoon and intense rain spells in various regions have already started to impact vegetable prices, especially tomatoes. These risks to food inflation could have an adverse impact on inflation expectations." According to the RBI Governor, the Indian basket crude oil price was around $104 per barrel in H1:2022-23 and expected to be around $100 per barrel in H2: 2022-23. "Taking into account these factors, the inflation projection is retained at 6.7 per cent in 2022-23, with Q2 at 7.1 per cent; Q3 at 6.5 per cent; and Q4 at 5.8 per cent, with risks evenly balanced. CPI (consumer price index) inflation is projected to further reduce to 5.0 per cent in Q1:2023-24," Das said. However, one has to see the RBI's prediction as to crude oil prices ($100 per barrel) as the oil producing countries have announced a cut in their production and the international prices going up. Economists and common man have a different take on the RBI's expectations on inflation. "Presently inflation does appear unlikely that it will move downwards for two sets of factors. The increase in oil price and rupee depreciation has potential to increase imported inflation," Sabnavis had told IANS earlier. "Second, there have been some shortfalls in kharif production which will mean an increase in prices. Also the late withdrawal of rain has affected vegetable crops and also adversely affected the harvest of rice and oilseeds in some regions." The reduction in sown area for rice and pulses during Kharif season is expected to feed inflation in the coming months. The overall sown acreage for the Kharif season has declined by 0.8 per cent at the end of September 30, 2022 as compared to last year, the Bank of Baroda said in a recent report. "The inflation rate will be 6.5-7 per cent in FY23 and 5.5-6 per cent in FY24," Sabnavis had remarked. The RBI Governor had said the communication with the central government is a privileged one and it will not made public by the Bank. Das also said there no legal stipulation on the frequency of the communication between RBI and the government. He had earlier said the inflation rate is expected to come down to four per cent in two years time. There are many uncertainties. The RBI has pegged the inflation rate at 6.7 per cent for FY23. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/apple-surges-to-add-178-billion-in-market-value-as-4th-quarter-earnings-help-drive-a-turnaround-in-the-stock-market/articleshow/95153518.cms">Apple surges to add $178 billion in market value as 4th-quarter earnings help drive a turnaround in the stock market</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/the-fed-will-hike-rates-too-far-and-tip-the-global-economy-into-a-recession-survey-of-economists-says/articleshow/95151308.cms">The Fed will hike rates too far and tip the global economy into a recession, survey of economists says</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/see-inside-an-almost-1-million-prefab-tiny-home-village-near-seattle-trying-to-solve-the-ongoing-homelessness-crisis/slidelist/95153993.cms">See inside an almost $1 million prefab tiny home village near Seattle trying to solve the ongoing homelessness crisis</a>

RBI can argue its case on inflation control say experts

<keyword id="3414353" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Ratings" source="Orion">S&amp;P Global Ratings</keyword> on Tuesday said <keyword id="419592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="core-inflation" source="Orion">core inflation</keyword> in India has been declining sequentially, and an elevated 6.25 per cent policy rate limits the need for further rate hikes. The Reserve Bank has increased the short-term lending rate by 225 basis points since May last year to contain <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword>, mostly driven by external factors, especially global supply chain disruption, following the Russia-Ukraine war outbreak. The policy rate now stands at 6.25 per cent. The RBI's rate-setting panel - Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - will decide on the interest rate on Wednesday. "In India, core inflation has been elevated for longer; however, it eased sequentially in the second half of 2022. An already elevated 6.25 per cent policy rate limits the need for further increases," S&amp;P said in a report. The RBI has been tasked to ensure that retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent. However, external factors have led retail inflation to remain above the upper tolerance limit for 11 months in a row. In November 2022, the retail inflation came below the 6 per cent level and declined further in December at 5.72 per cent. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/google-is-officially-confirmed-to-be-working-on-a-chatgpt-competitor-called-bard/articleshow/97681673.cms">Google is officially confirmed to be working on a ChatGPT competitor called Bard</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/rcap-resolution-nclat-issues-notices-to-torrent-investments-others-on-the-lenders-plea/articleshow/97681948.cms">RCap resolution: NCLAT issues notices to Torrent Investments, others on the lender's plea</a>

Declining core inflation limits need for further interest rate hikes by RBI: S&P

Economists are of the view that the measures taken by the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) have controlled inflation and add that inflation will come down. A senior economist also said the headline inflation could be 7.5 per cent in December putting a spanner in the inflation projections of the central bank. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on November 3 to discuss what it would tell the Centre as to why it was not able to restrain the inflation within four per cent + or - two per cent for three consecutive quarters. The RBI may also sound out to the Central government as to the course of inflation as well as the reasons why it may be at elevated levels. India's central bank has been trying to contain inflation by increasing the repo rate -- the rate at which it lends to the banks. The central bank has increased the repo rate by 190 basis points in recent times and the last one was by 50 basis points. In India, the retail inflation rose to 7.41 per cent in September. "The measures taken by the government and RBI have been able to control inflation from the high of 7.8 per cent we had seen in April. The fall in global commodity prices has also been supported in containing inflation. Inflationary expectations have also come down," Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CARE Ratings Ltd told IANS. "However, the concern is the stickiness of core inflation above six per cent and the renewed surge in domestic food inflation in the last few months. The measures taken by RBI to control inflation will show further impact with a lag of a few quarters," she added. "There is a strong case for the RBI arguing that (a) inflation has primarily been caused by supply-side shocks with global commodity prices having an impact (b) rupee depreciation has added to imported inflation (c) the RBI on its part was proactive in raising rates even between two policies as it did in May when it saw things were going out of hand post-Ukraine war and (d) there have been some measures like increase in goods and services tax (GST) which has added to inflation that was happening in parallel," Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, told IANS. "Therefore, there is an explanation as to why inflation was high. But the central bank has been acting to bring it down through its instruments, like repo and CRR (cash reserve ratio). It has succeeded in lowering surplus liquidity too which can be proved," Sabnavis added. "There was a huge sale of forex almost Rs 3 lakh crore to maintain the exchange rate. Inflation which was more than the target continuously for three quarters is estimated to come to around 6 per cent by three more quarters. Interest rates (repo rate) have increased by almost 1.9 per cent. As such the MPC may only be constrained to say that the present steps taken need some more time for having a positive impact to reduce inflation. This is subject to the time inconsistency impact," K. Ramasubramanian, retired General Manager, RBI, and a forex advisor told IANS. According to Sinha, the CPI inflation is estimated to inch below seven per cent in the next few months due to the base effect and below six per cent by the end of the fiscal year. Looking ahead, Sinha said the RBI could hike the repo rate further by 25-50 bps in the current fiscal year. "As we approach closer to the neutral policy rate, RBI will get more cautious in its rate decision," she added. Citing the unseasonal rain affecting the Kharif crops and the September food inflation at 8.4 per cent Dr Soumya Kanti <keyword id="4757" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="ghosh" source="Orion">Ghosh</keyword>, Group Chief Economic Adviser, <keyword id="6354731" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" source="Orion">State Bank of India</keyword> said in 2019 when such rains happened, the average food prices more than doubled from 4.9 per cent to 10.9 per cent. Similarly, the headline inflation in December could be 7.5 per cent and could put a spanner to the inflation projections of RBI and market consensus, Ghosh said in a research report. "This could also mean that the terminal repo rate could still be difficult to comprehend at this time, though consensus puts it at 6.5 per cent," Ghosh said. According to Sinha, the <keyword id="6356435" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="Orion">US Federal Reserve</keyword>'s policy decisions and the consequences on the currency market will also have a bearing on RBI's future policy decisions. Economists said the MPC will not be deciding on the policy rate at their November 3 meeting. "With global commodity prices falling and the likely support of base effect in containing India's CPI inflation in the next few months, RBI is unlikely to be in a tearing hurry," Sinha added. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/no-scientific-basis-to-two-finger-test-on-rape-survivors-causes-trauma-sc/articleshow/95198492.cms">No scientific basis to two-finger test on rape survivors, causes trauma: SC</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/iit-madras-generates-rs-1081-cr-from-funding-and-revenue/articleshow/95200293.cms">IIT Madras generates Rs 1,081 cr from funding and revenue</a>

RBI measures controlled inflation, but challenges remain say economists

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Wednesday, congratulated Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor, Shaktikanta Das for bagging an A+ grade rating in the Global Finance Central Banker Report Cards 2024. Prime Minister in a post on social media "X" said, "Congratulations to RBI Governor Shri @DasShaktikanta for this feat, and that too for the second time. This is a recognition of his leadership at the RBI and his work towards ensuring <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and stability." <keyword id="20850250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor-Das" source="keywords">RBI Governor Das</keyword> has been awarded the A+ grade rating for the second consecutive year. The Central Banker Report Cards, published annually by Global Finance since 1994, grade the central bank governors of nearly 100 key countries, territories, and districts, as well as the European Union, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, the Bank of Central African States and the Central Bank of West African States. Grades are based on an "A+" to "F" scale for success in areas such as <keyword id="21364628" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation-control" source="keywords">inflation control</keyword>, economic growth goals, currency stability and <keyword id="22859834" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate-management" source="keywords">interest rate management</keyword>. "A" represents an excellent performance, down through "F" for outright failure. "Central bankers have waged war against <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> over the past few years, wielding their primary weapon: higher interest rates. Now, countries around the world are witnessing the tangible results of these efforts, as inflation has dropped significantly," said Global Finance founder and editorial director Joseph Giarraputo. The RBI has been successful in controlling the larger macroeconomic situations in the country. The apex bank is actively working to push economic growth through its <keyword id="20900764" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policies" source="keywords">monetary policies</keyword>. The RBI recently kept the the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent after the deliberations of the Monetary Policy Commitee meeting earlier this month. The move reflects the central bank's cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Announcing the monetary policy decisions, Das had said that the decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about inflation, which remains above the RBI's target range. RBI Governor Das said that the inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. The Q1 <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of the next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent, as announced by the RBI Governor. India's retail inflation, after breaching 5 per cent in June, softened drastically in July. In line with the moderation in retail inflation, wholesale inflation in India too witnessed a sharp decline in July. The annual rate of inflation based on all India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) numbers is 2.04 per cent (provisional) for July 2024 (over July 2023).

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India's November retail inflation at 5.88%, within RBI's comfort band

ANI

RBI can argue its case on inflation control say experts

IANS

Declining core inflation limits need for further interest rate hikes by RBI: S&P

PTI

RBI measures controlled inflation, but challenges remain say economists

IANS

PM Modi congratulates RBI Governor Das on A+ rating in Global Finance Report

ANI

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