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<ul><li>India is witnessing <a href="https://www.mid-day.com/lifestyle/nature-and-wildlife/article/erratic-rainfall-pattern-in-india-amid-climate-change-warns-ipcc-report-23223005">erratic</a> rainfall after suffering from intense <keyword id="190116" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heat-waves" source="Orion">heat waves</keyword> in April.</li><li>On one hand, Assam has received <a href="https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2022-06-24-southwest-monsoon-to-cover-india-entirely-between-june-30-and-july-6">too much</a> rainfall and on the other, Jharkhand has received around half of what it’s due.</li><li>We are only halfway through 2022 and India has already witnessed extreme weather patterns.</li></ul>Heatwaves somewhere, floods in other parts of the country – India has witnessed extreme weather patterns in 2022 and we are only just halfway through the year. After suffering from intense heat waves in April, Assam has received <a href="https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2022-06-24-southwest-monsoon-to-cover-india-entirely-between-june-30-and-july-6">too much</a> rainfall and on the other, Jharkhand has received around half of what it’s due. <div type="image" title="rain or sun" msid="92592948" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Giphy&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> <keyword id="185923" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="erratic-monsoon" source="Orion">Erratic monsoon</keyword> in India The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">easterly winds</a> that bring <keyword id="6358301" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="Orion">monsoon</keyword> to the Northwest India have been absent in June this year, leading to a dry spell in the region. Instead, those winds drifted to Northeast India, leading to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">floods</a>. As June came to an end, as per <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1542378873492344835">IMD</a>, Southwest monsoon advanced into entire Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmiri, some parts of Rajasthan, entire Delhi, some parts of Punjab and Haryana on Thursday. According to the latest EcoScope report from research firm Motilal Oswal, India’s cumulative rainfall has a reported deficit of 7% as of June 26, 2022 after reporting a surplus of 20% in 2021 and 22% in 2020. The deficiency of rainfall is because the northwestern, central and southern parts of India have a shortfall of rains, suggesting that the issue is a lot more widespread than initially expected. <div type="image" title="kharif-2" msid="92592978" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;BI India&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> A see-saw summer From long dry spells to excessive rainfall, 2022 has been a year of extremes so far. As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), April was the <a href="https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20220402_pr_1551.pdf">hottest</a> month for northwest and central India and the third-hottest April the country has seen over the past 122 years, from 1901 to 2022. The daily high temperatures measured each year have also been increasing at a faster rate than daily low temperatures. This indicates that the distribution of temperature is shifting and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/india-heat-wave-in-pictures.html">changing</a> the ‘normal’ state. In fact, 12 of the country’s 15 <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1686173">warmest years</a> on record have occurred in the last 30 years. <div type="image" title="unnamed (6)" msid="92592990" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;BI India&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> These recurring patterns of intense hot spells and erratic rainfall could be a sign of climate change and global warming. Our country is also expected to suffer through more frequent and intense hot spells, extreme rainfall and erratic monsoons in the coming decades as the planet warms, said <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-s-record-heatwave-to-get-worse-authorities-blame-global-warming-122042900785_1.html">United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel</a>, a body for assessing science related to climate change. Cascading impacts of climate change This radical change in the weather is not good news for a country like India, which is heavily dependent on agriculture as it contributes <a href="https://india.mongabay.com/2021/10/extreme-weather-becomes-the-new-normal-in-indias-main-monsoon-season/">16-20% to GDP</a>, according to Finance Ministry data. In a country like India farmers are heavily dependent on monsoons for irrigating their fields, erratic rainfall and hot summer are the bane for their cultivation. According to a <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS">World Bank report</a>, as of 2015, nearly 62% of the agricultural lands in India are dependent on monsoon rains for irrigation. As of 24th Jun’22, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">Kharif sowing</a> is 24% lower than the area sown last year. <div type="image" title="kharif-1" msid="92593007" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;BI India&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> The 2022 summer, which was ridden with heatwaves, led to cascading impacts not just on human health, but also on ecosystems such as agriculture, water and energy supplies. Power demand spiked and coal inventories dropped, leaving the country with its worst <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/why-are-there-power-cuts-and-heatwave-in-india/articleshow/91177785.cms">power shortage</a> in more than six years. The heat wave also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/after-five-record-crops-heat-wave-threatens-indias-wheat-output-export-plans-2022-05-02/">threatened</a> India’s wheat output plan. According to a World Meteorological Organization report released in 2020, India lost more than <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-lost-87-billion-to-climate-disasters-in-2020-report-101635272896946.html">$87 billion</a> (approx. ₹6.8 lakh crore) due to disasters such as cyclones, floods and droughts. However, there’s still hope to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">control</a> climate change. It will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels (such as hydrogen).

SIMPLY PUT: extreme weather is the new normal in India

Just two days after recording 811.6 mm of rainfall in a day, <keyword id="635157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cherrapunji" source="Orion">Cherrapunji</keyword> in Meghalaya received a bountiful 972 mm of precipitation in 24 hours ending 8.30 am on Friday, the highest in June since 1995, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. One of the wettest places in the world, Cherrapunji has recorded more than 800 mm of precipitation on a June day on nine occasions since the IMD started keeping records, the IMD data showed. Till Friday, Cherrapunji has received a total of 4081.3 mm rainfall this month, Sunit Das, Scientist E at IMD's regional centre in Guwahati, said. In 24 hours ending 8:30 am on Wednesday, the town nestled in the East Khasi Hills gauged a copious 811.2 mm of rainfall. On June 16, 1995, Cherrapunji logged 1563.3 mm of rainfall. A day before, on June 15, 1995, it received 930 mm of precipitation. "It doesn't always rain like this. 50-60 cm is normal (in Cherrapunji) once or twice every year. But 80 cm and above is certainly not usual," Das told PTI. "A trough has been persisting over the region for some days and southwesterly winds have been continuously bringing a lot of moisture from the Bay of Bengal. These winds smash against the cliffs of the Khai hills and give rainfall," he said. Cherrapunji recorded 673.6 mm of rainfall on Thursday, 811.6 mm on Wednesday, 62.6 mm on Tuesday, 293 mm on Monday and 354 mm on Sunday. The spell of extreme rainfall is likely to continue for one or two days. Thereafter, the intensity will decrease, the scientist said. At an aerial distance of 10 km from Cherrapunji, Mawsynram, the wettest place in India, gauged 710.6 mm of rainfall in 24 hours ending 8:30 am Wednesday, the maximum since June 1966. On June 10, 1966, Mawsynram had recorded 717.6 mm of rainfall. On June 7, 1966, it had received 944.7 mm of precipitation, the highest on a June day since the IMD began maintaining records. The town had gauged a 24-hour rainfall of 623.4 mm on June 8, 2015. "Mawsynram is at present the wettest place in India, with an average annual rainfall of 11802.4 mm (average of the 1974-2022 period). Cherrapunji receives 11359.4 mm of rainfall in a year (average of the 1971-2020 period)," Das said. Overall, the northeast and east India has received 220.3 mm of rainfall, 39 per cent more than normal, since June 1 when the monsoon season starts. Meghalaya has gauged 865.7 mm of rainfall, 153 per cent more than normal, since June 1. Arunachal Pradesh has recorded 253.1 mm of rainfall, 22 per cent more than normal, while Assam has logged 372.9 mm of rainfall, an excess of 79 per cent. However, not all states in the region have seen good rainfall. Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura have reported a rainfall deficiency of 50 per cent, 46 per cent and 38 per cent. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/will-mukesh-ambanis-viacom18-and-star-make-a-profit-out-of-ipl-in-the-next-5-years/articleshow/92278191.cms">BCCI’s money-spinner a curse for Mukesh Ambani’s Viacom18: Will IPL make profits for media winners this time?</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/news/section-144-crpc-imposed-in-gurugram-to-tackle-the-ongoing-protest-against-agnipath-scheme/articleshow/92278461.cms">Section 144 CrPC imposed in Gurugram to tackle the ongoing protest against Agnipath scheme</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/whatsapp-users-beware-of-this-fathers-day-scam/articleshow/92274111.cms">WhatsApp users beware of this Father’s Day scam</a>

Cherrapunji in Meghalaya sets another record with 811 mm on rainfall in a day

<keyword id="47162" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rainfall" source="Orion">Rainfall</keyword> in August, which recorded 24 percent deficiency, was lowest in 19 years, the India Meteorological Department (<keyword id="6366970" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="imd" source="Orion">IMD</keyword>) said on Friday. Two major spells of weak monsoon prevailed over the country — from August 9-16 and August 23-27 — when northwest, central and adjoining peninsular and west coast of India had subdued rainfall activities. "During August 2021, rainfall over the country as a whole was below <keyword id="6440070" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Long-Period-Average" source="Orion">Long Period Average</keyword> (<keyword id="180155" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lpa" source="Orion">LPA</keyword>) by minus 24 percent. It is also lowest August rainfall in last 19 years, since 2002," the IMD said. The Southwest Monsoon season officially commences from June 1 and lasts till September 30. The month of June recorded 10 percent more rainfall, but both July and August clocked deficiency of seven and 24 percent respectively, according to the IMD data. The country received 24 percent less than normal rainfall in August. Of the four meteorological divisions of the IMD, the central India division received 39 percent less. The division consists of a large swathe of area from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. The deficiency in the northwest India division, which comprises northern Indian states, was 30 percent. The deficiency was 10 percent in the south peninsula whereas the east and northeast division received two percent more rainfall than the normal. The IMD had predicted that the rainfall activity was expected to be normal during August. It has now predicted above normal precipitation in September. The weather forecasting agency said intra-seasonal variation in terms of week by week rainfall variation over India shows that monsoon rainfall activities were largely subdued consecutively for three weeks -- for week ending on August 11, August 18 and August 25 -- when all India weekly cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole was 35 percent, 36 percent and 21 percent, respectively, below its Long Period Average (LPA). The formation of less number of low pressure systems (PLS) and their lesser number of days compared to the climatology and absence of their longer westward movements during the month of August 2021 contributed to the large deficient rainfall in central India as well as all India, the IMD said. It said negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over tropical Indian Ocean, unfavourable for Indian monsoon prevailed throughout the month of the August, which also contributed to deficient rainfall over India in the month. A negative IOD is associated with the heating of waters of the Indian Ocean. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/den-networks-hathway-cable-biocon-alembic-pharma-ujjivan-financial-services-eron-international-stocks-are-going-down/slidelist/86093519.cms">Den Networks, Biocon, Alembic Pharma and more -- here’s why these companies made no money to investors even in a bull run</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/cryptocurrency/news/bitcoin-is-now-legal-in-ukraine-but-not-like-it-is-in-el-salvador/articleshow/86091955.cms">Bitcoin is one signature away from becoming legal in Ukraine and it's not following in El Salvador's footsteps</a>

Rainfall in August is India's lowest in 19 years

<ul><li>Monsoon is expected to bring above-average rain showers in the coming two weeks, according to weather officials. </li><li>The weekend — 27-28 July — will receive heavy rainfall in states of Maharashtra, Delhi, West Bengal and Uttarakhand among others. </li><li> Last week, India witnessed low rainfall, 35% below average. </li><li>The monsoon rainfall accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall.</li></ul>Monsoons have started late across the country, but looks like they will have an extended run. In the coming two weeks, monsoons are expected to bring in the much needed showers, according to weather officials. “In the next two weeks, we are likely to get above average rainfall, which will be well distributed across the country,” said A K Srivastava, head of the climate research division, <keyword id="6355166" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="India-meteorological-department">India Meteorological Department</keyword> (IMD)<a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/us-india-monsoon/india-to-get-above-average-monsoon-rains-in-next-two-weeks-idINKCN1UK1L7"> told </a>Reuters. Rainy weekend The weekend — 27 to 28 July — will receive heavy rainfall in states of Rajasthan, coastal Maharashtra, Goa, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, interior Maharashtra and Odisha. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Indian Cities </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Minimum temp (°C) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Maximum temp (°C) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Forecast </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Delhi </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">26 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">33 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Cloudy, moderate rains </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Mumbai </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">30 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Intermittent and heavy rains </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Kolkata </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">26 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">33 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Thundershowers, light rainfall </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Pune </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">22 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">29 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Moderate rains </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Chennai </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">23 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">34 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Light rainfall </td></tr></tbody></table> Other states with high rainfall and thunderstorms include coastal Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu &amp; Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Assam, Meghalaya, Gujarat and Jharkhand. However, in the national capital Delhi, rains will come with bad air quality, the weather report said. The IMD <keyword id="51704" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="weather-forecast">weather forecast</keyword> aligns with predictions of the<a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/strong-monsoon-over-central-india-may-last-for-a-fortnight/article28690027.ece"> Climate Prediction Centre</a> of the US <keyword id="108482" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Weather-Service">National Weather Service</keyword>, which too had predicted monsoon showers between 1-8 August. Drought &amp; Floods This year India had faced extreme weather conditions — floods and droughts. While Chennai is battling water crisis, Assam is struggling with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/no-water-no-food-no-shelter-15-devastating-photos-show-how-destructive-assam-and-bihar-floods-are/articleshow/70291696.cms">floods</a>. Overall, the monsoon was deficient by 17% which impacted the crops. The most affected are cotton and groundnut crops in Gujarat. This late monsoons will bring cheer to Indian farmers and yield summer-sown crops, which have been sagging due to low rainfall. “Good rainfall in the next few days can bring down stress level and accelerate sowing,” said Prerana Desai, Head of Research at Edelweiss Rural &amp; Corporate Services. Over half of the arable land banks on monsoon rains for cultivation as they account for 70% of India’s total rainfall. According to the Agriculture Ministry, crop plantation has been low with summer crop plantation spreading over 56.7 million hectares of land this year. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india-is-facing-two-extreme-weather-conditions-together-drought-and-floods-/articleshow/70273165.cms">Bone dry or deluge — the freakish monsoon is killing Indians either way</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/chennai-gets-monsoon-showers-but-its-too-little-to-solve-the-water-crisis/articleshow/70342615.cms">Chennai gets monsoon showers, but its too little to solve the water crisis</a>

Top Indian cities brace for a wet weekend after Met Dept forecast two weeks of 'above average' rain

<ul><li>The latest forecast from <keyword id="6376779" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="skymet">Skymet</keyword> is expected to take a toll on <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> today and cause some volatility in the trading of agro-commodities. </li><li>The weather forecasting organisation has predicted that India’s <keyword id="6358301" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon">monsoon</keyword> winds will arrive in Southern India later than expected, by the first week of June, and provide lesser-than-expected <keyword id="47162" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="rainfall">rainfall</keyword> this year. </li><li>A strong monsoon always provides a filip to India’s economy. Not only does it increase farm production, prevent food inflation and raise rural demand, but it also stimulates business and consumer confidence. </li></ul>A strong monsoon always provides a filip to India’s economy. Not only does it increase farm production, prevent food inflation and raise rural demand, but it also stimulates business and consumer confidence. In a rainfall deficient period, it’s harder for a bull run to take place in financial markets as investors get jittery. If harvests are low, this also increases the pressure on the government to give sops to <keyword id="45092" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="farmers">farmers</keyword>. This is why the latest forecast from Skymet is expected to take a toll on markets today and cause some volatility in the trading of agro-commodities. The weather forecasting organisation has predicted that India’s monsoon winds will arrive in Southern India later than expected, by the first week of June, and provide <a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/india-monsoon/indias-monsoon-to-arrive-late-deliver-less-rain-skymet-idINKCN1SK14H">lesser-than-expected rainfall</a> this year. The monsoon period is expected to end by September, when the last of the winds leaves the western state of Rajasthan. Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet, told Reuters that India would receive, “93% rainfall of the long period average in 2019.” Singh added that central India would get 91% of the average rainfall while eastern India would get 92%. South India, meanwhile, should get 95% of the average. Skymet’s prediction clashes with forecasts from the government-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), which said last month that there would be average rainfall this season - which provided <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/sensex-rises-139-points-nifty-at-11690-tata-motors-tcs-rally/articleshow/68889490.cms">a strong boost to stock markets</a> the day it was announced. The monsoon reportedly accounts for <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/imd-projects-near-normal-monsoon-but-how-big-a-factor-is-it-for-market/articleshow/68888435.cms">70-80%</a> of India’s water requirement for agriculture which is why people will keep a close eye on forecasts in the immediate future. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/the-mystery-of-indias-erratic-monsoon-can-be-found-in-the-indian-ocean/articleshow/69215027.cms">The mystery of India’s erratic monsoon can be found in the Indian ocean</a>

Latest monsoon projection may take the wind out of India's markets

<ul><li>Total rainfall in India came in at 91% of the 50-year average between June to September, according to the Indian Meteorological Department, as opposed to predictions of 97%. </li><li>This was largely due to the fact that the northeastern parts of India, which usually receive higher rainfall than the rest of the country, experienced a shortage in rainfall. </li><li>However, despite the weak <keyword id="6358301" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon">monsoon</keyword>, India’s crop production this kharif season is expected to reach a record level of 141.6 million tonnes. </li></ul>India’s rainfall this monsoon season fell short of forecasts for the second consecutive year, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Total rains came in at 91% of the 50-year average between June to September, as opposed to predictions of 97%. This was largely due to the fact that the northeastern parts of India, which usually receive higher rainfall than the rest of the country, experienced a shortage in rainfall. Infact, 69% of the country received a normal or excessive rainfall this monsoon season, with the flood-ravaged <keyword id="28504" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kerala">Kerala</keyword> receiving 23% higher rainfall than normal. Gujarat had an uncharacteristically dry season, receiving 24% less rain than normal, while UP and Bihar had the most rain-deficient districts. It bears mentioning that the 97% forecast for this year was reaffirmed despite a dry spell in the first half of the season. A normal monsoon involves rainfall in the range of 96%-104% of the 50-year or long-term average. A drought season occurs when rainfall is 90% of the long-term average or less. A record <keyword id="6417335" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="harvest">harvest</keyword> The June-September period is particularly crucial for India’s agriculture industry as this season provides 70% of the country’s annual precipitation. However, despite the weak monsoon, India’s crop production this kharif season is expected to reach record levels. As per government forecasts, production of summer <keyword id="18620" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="crops">crops</keyword> should reach 141.6 million tonnes in 2018-19, a slight jump from last year’s record bounty of 140.7 million tonnes, owing to a 2% jump in the output of <keyword id="13726" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="rice">rice</keyword> to nearly 100 million tonnes - which bodes well for exports. This is even more significant as there has been a slight shrinkage in the total acreage occupied by kharif crops this year. The record harvest this year is largely due to the fact that farmers are prioritising crops that don’t require excessive rainfall. They’re choosing crops based on the existing moisture level in the soil, thereby making their harvest less dependent on the monsoon. According to research by the IMD, soil moisture was found to be adequate in most districts that received a rainfall of 20% less than the average. In addition, farmers are also planting crops that will fetch them better prices - for example, choosing soybeans over pulses - and factoring the monsoon less in their decisions. A double-edged sword However, despite the obvious cause for celebration, a record harvest can prove to be a drag on farmer incomes. A high level of food grain production translates into lower prices - which is great for households - but hurts farmers. If wholesale prices remain below the government’s minimum support prices, then it will have to step in and procure more grains from farmers than budgeted.

Despite a second consecutive deficient monsoon, India is poised for a record harvest

Even as Finance Minister <keyword id="42575" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Arun-Jaitley">Arun Jaitley</keyword> played down the concerns over <keyword id="1146394" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="deficient-monsoon">deficient monsoon</keyword> this year saying the forecast was misplaced and distress was far-fetched, the <keyword id="151047" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Rural-Development-Ministry">Rural Development Ministry</keyword> went on war footing to ramp up flagship rural jobs scheme to generate income for affected families. 
 
Jaitley said that the timing and spread of the June-September rainy season suggested the effect won't be as dire, adding that the distribution pattern of rain forecast was such that any impact on farm output will be limited. 
 
The Finance Minister also said that there was "abundance of foodgrain" and in any case, the forecast signalled less pain than last year. 
 
India's Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its forecast of average rainfall in the June-September monsoon to 88% from 93%, fuelling fears of a drought. 
Farmers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, etc are already distressed due to unseasonal rainfall. 
 
Meanwhile, the Rural Development Ministry is revamping the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGS) and checking de-silting of water bodies, building check dams, percolation tanks and farm ponds to brace against a possible drought and build assets for future. 
 
"We will use satellite mapping to identify areas where the work needs to be taken up. Once the regular monsoon sets in, such construction cannot be done so we have to get into action immediately," a senior rural development ministry official told Economic Times. 
As per the data for 22 states, 93,000 water-harvesting structures have been built to provide irrigation to 1.2 lakh hectares of land. 
 
"Most of the work in rural areas in permitted under (the jobs programme) and since it is an open-ended scheme with no financial limitation, it is advantageous to take up work under this scheme," the official told ET. 
 
The ministry is also going to expedite its watershed management programmes. 
 
As per Economic Times, only 40% of agriculture area receives assured irrigation in the country. 
 
Jaitley said only the North-West is forecast to get slightly inadequate rainfall. “A large part of the northwest has substantial irrigation facility", Jaitley said. 
 
Sufficient foodgrain 
 
The Food Corporation of India (FCI), in the beginning, had more than 51 million tonnes of rice and wheat in the central pool itself. 
 
"The rainfall was less last year than what is predicted now and it came even later. Even then we did not let prices rise. We have more than sufficient food stock. Taking them to the market is one of the tools the government has,” said Jaitley. 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

Arun Jaitley dispels deficient monsoon fears, Rural Ministry revamps MNREGA

Brace yourself for an extended summer season and scanty rainfall along with rise in prices of food items this year as the Australian Meteorological Department predicted on Tuesday that the tropical Pacific was in early stages of the El Nino weather phenomenon. 
 The bureau’s current observations state that India's south-west monsoon will be deficient and it has already been predicted by the <keyword id="6355166" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="India-Meteorological-Department">India Meteorological Department</keyword> in April, as per an Economic Times report. 
 
El Nino refers to the warming of Pacific waters and is seen as having a wide-ranging impact on global weather. 
 This comes as bad news for India as the <keyword id="390879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="monsoon-season">monsoon season</keyword>, which runs from June to September in the country, is the main source of water for the agriculture sector. This will affect the <keyword id="2848024" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Agriculture-based-industries">agriculture-based industries</keyword> and the food industry. 
 
In the wake of poor rainfall last year and unseasonal rains and snowfall in recent months, India's revival plans and economic growth will also be hampered. 
 
According to the Australian weather office, the El Nino Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend toward El Nino levels since the start of the year. The temperatures of sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean have also exceeded El Nino thresholds recently. 
 
Moreover, such changes are also supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface which will worsen the weather condition. 
 
Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year. "These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Nino is likely to persist in the coming months," the Australian weather office said. 
 
International climate models surveyed by the bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Nino thresholds through the coming winter and at least into spring. 
 
(Image:Reuters)

El Nino brings bad news for India. Here’s how

New Delhi: India's Consumer Price Index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> dropped to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, its lowest in nearly five years, largely driven by a decline in <keyword id="20028256" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable" source="keywords">vegetable</keyword> <keyword id="19900607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prices" source="keywords">prices</keyword>. However, despite this positive development, the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="State-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="State Bank of India">State Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) has cautioned that the path forward may be challenging, according to the SBI research report. The dramatic reduction in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to a mere 6.8 per cent in July, played a crucial role in achieving this multi-year low. The weighted contribution of vegetables to the overall CPI also shrank from 1.77 per cent in June to 0.55 per cent in July, underscoring their impact on the headline inflation figure. Additionally, the prices of fruits and fuel showed signs of moderation, contributing further to easing inflationary pressures. However, this broad-based relief was tempered by a slight uptick in core CPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices. The SBI's latest report highlights that the once-dominant "Follow the Fed" mantra appears to be waning, with an increasing number of central banks prioritizing domestic economic conditions over synchronizing with U.S. rate decisions, signaling a shift in global <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> dynamics. This decline in CPI marks the first time in half a decade that CPI inflation has dipped below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4 per cent, a feat largely attributed to a steep fall in vegetable prices. Core CPI rose from 3.12 per cent in June to 3.30 per cent in July, driven primarily by an increase in mobile tariffs. Notably, the transport and communication segment saw inflation rise sharply from 0.97 per cent in June to 2.48 per cent in July, indicating sector-specific pressures. The moderation in food inflation, which stood at 5.06 per cent year-on-year in July, was significantly influenced by a higher base effect. Despite this, concerns persist over the uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall, particularly in key foodgrain-producing states experiencing deficient precipitation. With La Nina conditions gaining strength, the possibility of excessive rainfall in August and September looms large, raising fears of crop damage that could reignite food price inflation. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures may persist, potentially exceeding the RBI's forecast of 4.5 per cent for FY25. The domestic growth momentum remains robust, with GDP expected to surpass 7 per cent in Q1 FY25. However, geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose risks to the growth outlook. The RBI, maintaining a tight liquidity stance to control inflation, has deferred potential rate cuts to December 2024 or February 2025. State-wise analysis reveals that the majority of states recorded CPI inflation rates below the national average, with only six out of 22 states experiencing higher-than-average inflation. Despite this, significant rural-urban inflation differentials were observed, with most states seeing higher inflation in rural areas compared to urban counterparts. Only four states reported higher urban inflation. Historically, when the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts its interest rates, global capital flows are impacted, prompting central banks in emerging markets to follow suit. However, while the Fed's recent rate hike cycle (2022-2023) saw a synchronized global response, the current rate-cutting phase is proving to be less coordinated. Central banks in countries like China, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, the UK, Canada, and the European Central Bank have already begun reducing rates, while the Fed is expected to initiate cuts in September 2024. India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 4.2 per cent in June 2024, down from a revised 6.2 per cent in May. The mining sector led the growth with a 10.3 per cent increase, followed by electricity at 8.6 per cent and manufacturing at 2.6 per cent. For the April-June 2024 period, industrial growth stood at 5.2 per cent, compared to 4.7 per cent in the same period the previous year. As India navigates the delicate balance between growth and inflation, the coming months will be critical in shaping the country's economic trajectory, especially with potential global shifts in monetary policy and the evolving monsoon season.

CPI inflation drops to lowest in five years but road ahead could be bumpy: SBI Report

In a rather dampened <keyword id="19915531" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forecast" source="keywords">forecast</keyword> for the Indian economy, <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICRA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICRA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICRA">ICRA</keyword> has forecast a sharp <keyword id="20637625" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="slowdown" source="keywords">slowdown</keyword> in India's <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword>. The credit rating agency has projected a year-on-year expansion of 6.0% in <keyword id="22106354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY2025" source="keywords">Q1 FY2025</keyword> — the lowest in the last six quarters. In Q4 FY2024, India recorded an impressive 7.8%. The Reserve Bank of India had expected the growth momentum to continue this financial year as well. Earlier this month, the RBI governor had projected a 7.1% growth in Q1, while the growth rate for the entire financial year FY2024-25 was projected to be at 7.2%. The central bank had attributed this potential robust growth to improved agricultural activity, sustained buoyancy in services activity, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, thrust on capex by the government, visible signs of pick up in private investment, and improving prospects of global trade. However, RBI’s growth projections for this financial year were slightly moderated due to lower-than-anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. As per ICRA, the sharp drop in GDP growth is primarily due to parliamentary elections and a contraction in government capital expenditure weakening urban consumer confidence. Another main cause could be the weakening urban consumer confidence, which reported a surprising downtick in the May and July 2024 rounds of the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey. “The lingering impact of last year’s unfavourable monsoon and an uneven start to the 2024 monsoon prevented a broader improvement in rural sentiment. Lower volume growth combined with diminishing gains from commodity prices weighed upon the profitability of some of the industrial sectors. The heat wave also affected footfalls in various service sectors, even as it provided a significant boost to electricity demand,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. Despite the Q1 slowdown, ICRA expects economic activity to pick up in the latter half of FY2025, projecting an overall GDP growth of 6.8% for the full year, with a potential to exceed 7% in the second half. The agency expects decelerated growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) as well, easing to 5.7% in Q1 FY2025 from 6.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in industrial growth, which is predicted to moderate to 6.4% from 8.4%, along with slight reductions in the services sector's growth and a modest improvement in agricultural GVA. The difference between GDP and GVA growth is expected to narrow to around 30 basis points (bps) in Q1 FY2025, down from 148 bps in the previous quarter, due to lower growth in net indirect taxes amid a rise in government subsidies. ICRA's analysis indicates that industrial GVA growth is likely to moderate in Q1 FY2025, with a slowdown in manufacturing and construction offset by growth in electricity, mining, and quarrying. Additionally, a contraction in government and state capital expenditure, along with a significant drop in new project announcements, has contributed to the overall slowdown. Manufacturing profit margins have also been under pressure due to rising global commodity prices and narrowing deflation in input costs, which, combined with slower growth in manufacturing output, suggests a deceleration in manufacturing GVA growth. In the agricultural sector, GVA growth is projected to be modest at 1.0% in Q1 FY2025, amidst declining output from most rabi and summer crops and a deficient rainfall in June 2024. With growing concerns around inflation and unemployment in India and across the world, the latest forecast could further fuel the fears around recession and slowdown in major economies. However, a much clearer picture will emerge with the actual quarterly estimates of GDP for Q1 from the National Statistical Office (NSO) next week. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/digital-initiatives-to-triple-indian-retail-borrowing-to-usd-2-5-trillion-by-2030-sp-global/articleshow/112263945.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Digital initiatives to triple Indian retail borrowing to USD 2.5 trillion by 2030: S&amp;P Global</a>

You Searched For "rainfall deficiency" and got 10 results

SIMPLY PUT: extreme weather is the new normal in India

Karuna Sharma

Cherrapunji in Meghalaya sets another record with 811 mm on rainfall in a day

PTI

Rainfall in August is India's lowest in 19 years

PTI

Top Indian cities brace for a wet weekend after Met Dept forecast two weeks of 'above average' rain

Prerna Sindwani

Latest monsoon projection may take the wind out of India's markets

BI India Bureau

Despite a second consecutive deficient monsoon, India is poised for a record harvest

Dilsher Dhillon

Arun Jaitley dispels deficient monsoon fears, Rural Ministry revamps MNREGA

BI India Bureau

El Nino brings bad news for India. Here’s how

BI India Bureau

CPI inflation drops to lowest in five years but road ahead could be bumpy: SBI Report

ANI

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

Deekshith Pinto

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