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<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! Are you a fan of the "John Wick" franchise? If so, you owe a big thank you to Eva Longoria. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/eva-longoria-producer-john-wick-2024-10">She provided $6 million in gap financing</a> when the first movie ran out of money and was at risk of shutting down.Our sale on a Business Insider subscription also kicks off today. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/limited-offer">Check out the details here</a>.In today's big story, Boeing's new CEO has big plans for the company's turnaround, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-corporate-culture-fix-executives-factory-floor-2024-10">including executives rolling up their sleeves</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Breaking down some theories about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-odds-polymarket-bets-polls-kamala-harris-2024-10">what's motivating the Trump "whale"</a> in the betting markets.</li><li>Tech: Tesla trounced Wall Street's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-10">Q3 earnings expectations</a>.</li><li>Business: McDonald's E. coli outbreak has a key difference <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-ecoli-outbreak-investigation-update-compared-chipotle-2024-10">from the one that plagued Chipotle in 2015</a>.</li></ul>But first, let's get this flight back on track.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Boeing's comeback pitch</h2><div type="image" title="Collage of Boeing's Ceo and Airplane factory imagery" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114551156" hostid="261" sizebytes="127052"></div>Boeing's new CEO is looking to navigate a turnaround that includes rethinking the aerospace giant's culture.Boeing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-q3-results-earnings-loss-ceo-vows-iconic-again-2024-10">reported a $6.1 billion loss in the third quarter</a>, the latest knock for a company that's faced constant setbacks this year, writes Business Insider's Pete Syme.But new CEO Kelly Ortberg has some ideas for how to fix Boeing's "festering of issues." In a memo to employees, he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-ceo-turnaround-plan-employee-memo-earnings-2024-10">detailed a four-part plan</a> for how Boeing can regain its place as an "iconic company and aerospace leader," BI's Benjamin Zhang reports.You might think a nearly $100 billion company that builds airplanes needs a specific solution. But at its core, Ortberg's plan is something any business can appreciate: focus on the culture and the work being done.For Boeing that means <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-corporate-culture-fix-executives-factory-floor-2024-10">putting executives on factory floors</a> with the hope it will address safety, communication, and employee trust issues, writes BI's Taylor Rains.Whether you're making sandwiches or 737s, having a front-row seat to how the work is being done often provides a better view of a company's inefficiencies than any boardroom can.Of course, Boeing's problem's are slightly more complicated than perfecting a BLT.Just a few days into 2024, a Boeing 737 Max suffered a blowout incident that tanked the company's stock and drew the attention of Congress. Since then, it has also been dealing with a costly strike and a struggling space program.Plenty of business turnarounds include talking to those in the thick of it.Starbucks' new CEO Brian Niccol, who is trying to stop the coffee chain's sales slide, is looking to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-new-ceo-looking-to-baristas-as-part-of-turnaround-2024-10">baristas</a> for help.He mentioned fixing some of the biggest problems Starbucks' "green-apron partners" have flagged to executives, like devising a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-workers-requested-store-changes-new-ceo-2024-10">better way to manage mobile orders</a>.The effort to get direct feedback from the people doing the work is evident in Big Tech, too. The "year of efficiency" has become more of an era as tech giants like Meta and Amazon continue to flatten their organizations.Those efforts have downsides, though. Tech giants' focus on the work has meant a steady stream of layoffs as they keep removing layers. The end result could have an impact on morale.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Boeing workers <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=a8298a7e576b433ea0f7196984a4f62c&amp;_e=qqkmy_Hf1u4jsRXi5OF3USks99Ou68JR3jOdssDRPlgguwdPNY2mS8X3mZIZw5GpyEphrA7hNkNpMdudvCZFnc_DtbV52OwvzBXeV10FXS-rxriu37KsrNumkYx7GpyEL1iG8t4vugjKZjOLrdXxM0CLgNk9LteWKrsthcJe1z7crzeVNAWdlut7kM1xMAFW5nhrkL8jtNAFWa5fh-iebr33_1psA8fQsEpdp7triLcB1FjnwsV78sZDwxxmmw1tdJmeVvncdG_G00EAqIrzFJRQkTXy1w4CEM8KJDPIIt1XJ0NmntpKWVIyCUUPrxhgqeT7UQrc4hvIwxnpN313tZo_nAofCQsG-52PFa0tX9de7r9-SdjyK_wXwt3kFcJF29p-vBs1U8wKNWIJEq-HVWpER8grZe3IsBD4n208Jx2yKS09TlaDyP-fZhUv9lBvwPBigN0PlUJ-VNy7tIq-Lg%3D%3D">reject the company's latest proposal</a>, which included a 35% wage hike.</li><li>WPP's former dealmaker is joining investment bank Canaccord Genuity — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/canaccord-genuity-hiring-former-wpp-dealmaker-lance-maerov-2024-10">a sign advertising M&amp;A could heat up</a>.</li><li>This staid software company is kicking butt in AI. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/servicenow-ceo-bill-mcdermott-ai-software-2024-10">The CEO explains how</a>.</li><li>The US is facing a drugstore graveyard as stores close. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pharmacies-drugstores-closing-leaves-empty-locations-real-estate-challenge-2024-10">Filling the leftover spaces</a> is the next challenge.</li><li>The CEO of Perplexity said the AI-powered search engine <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/perplexity-ceo-lawsuits-tensions-dow-jones-2024-10">isn't trying to replace the news</a>.</li><li>Americans are quitting their jobs at the lowest rate in years. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raises-promotions-harder-get-low-quit-rates-interest-rates-2024-10">It's making it harder to get raises and promotions</a>.</li><li>Life after Intel: After rounds of layoffs and buyouts, some Intel insiders are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-buyouts-new-ventures-philanthropy-wedding-planning-2024-10">abandoning the corporate grind altogether</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Donald Trump in front of a green upward-trending line" height="900" width="1200" msid="114551160" hostid="261" sizebytes="69384"></div><ol><li>What's going on with the "whale" betting on a Trump win? Here are some theories. Someone has bet roughly $46 million on former President Donald Trump reclaiming the White House on Polymarket. Political and betting-market commentators have speculated it's either an influence campaign, a pump-and-dump scheme, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-odds-polymarket-bets-polls-kamala-harris-2024-10">or simply a bullish view on Trump's prospects next month</a>.2. Whether it's Trump or Harris, Steve Schwarzman isn't worried about a post-election recession. The billionaire Blackstone CEO has publicly backed the former president, but he doesn't see Vice President Kamala Harris winning as a recession risk. "The economy is pretty strong and both of the candidates <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-recession-outlook-schwarzman-blackstone-trump-harris-election-inflation-2024-10">keep mentioning a lot of stimulative policies</a>," Schwarzman said.3. Apple stock dips on reports of dimming demand for the new iPhone. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-stock-price-tumbles-analyst-says-iphone-16-orders-slashed-2024-10">Apple stock dropped as much as 3% on Wednesday</a> after analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities said Tim Cook's company cut orders by 10 million units. Kuo also saw "no evidence" AI features were boosting demand. Meanwhile, the production of the Vision Pro <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-vision-pro-production-weak-demand-2024-10">is reportedly in flux</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Gif of various floating shapes in blue, green and orange" height="540" width="1080" msid="114551164" hostid="261" sizebytes="39602"></div><ol><li>Introducing AI's power players. Now in its second year, Business Insider's 2024 AI Power list maps out who wields real power in artificial intelligence and machine learning. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-power-list-2024">This year's list honors people</a> hoping to effect change and solve problems across the industry, from Groq CEO Jonathan Ross to Google DeepMind COO Lila Ibrahim.2. Tesla did better than expected in Q3. The electric carmaker reported earnings per share of $0.62 — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-10">a big beat over analysts expectations</a> of $0.51. It also announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-profit-2024-10">the Cybertruck turned a profit</a>, marking a major win for Elon Musk as he enters the electric pickup market. Analysts saw the latest numbers as a clear sign that <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-earnings-analyst-reactions-basics-selling-electric-vehicles-robotaxi-2024-10">Tesla shouldn't neglect its roots</a>.3. A ban on celebrity jet-tracking isn't a bad idea. But Meta still has some explaining to do. This week, the company suspended Threads accounts that shared flight data of figures like Taylor Swift and Donald Trump, citing safety concerns. That seems reasonable, but it doesn't explain why <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-ban-celebrity-flight-tracker-private-jet-elon-musk-threads-2024-10">Meta chose to wait until now</a> to apply the three-year-old recommendation.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of person having anxiety dreams about burning money" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114551161" hostid="261" sizebytes="197872"></div><ol><li>Millennials are making a massive financial mistake. If you came of age against a backdrop of two major crises, you might be left a little more risk-averse in your investments. But sitting on your cash <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-big-money-mistake-holding-cash-not-buying-stocks-investing-2024-10">will come back to bite you</a> in the long run.</li><li>McDonald's doesn't think its E. coli outbreak will be like Chipotle's in 2015. Execs said Chipotle's cases involved the handling and preparation of food while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-ecoli-outbreak-investigation-update-compared-chipotle-2024-10">McDonald's outbreak was related to potentially contaminated ingredients</a> from a supplier. But that hasn't stopped victims of the recent outbreak <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-lawyers-lawsuits-quarter-pounder-2024-10">from getting ready to sue the Golden Arches</a>.</li><li>Hollywood's star is fading. Los Angeles is losing ground as the center of the film industry, as the high cost of living and labor drives entertainment jobs to other locales. New York isn't doing too well either — the country's No. 2 entertainment job market also saw its share of jobs dip. The industry's center of gravity <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hollywood-losing-dominance-tv-movies-employment-chart-2024-10">appears to be shifting south</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Southwest Airlines, Barclays, Capital One, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Boeing's turnaround plan is something any business can relate to: focus on the culture and the work

<keyword id="19905255" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SpaceX" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="SpaceX" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="SpaceX">SpaceX</keyword> suffered a setback in its Starlink satellite constellation project this week after a malfunction during launch resulted in the loss of 20 satellites. While the Musk-ownder company tried to salvage the situation, bad <keyword id="20087207" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="space-weather" source="keywords">space weather</keyword> doomed the mission. The incident occurred on Thursday night when the second-stage engine of a Falcon 9 rocket failed to complete its planned burn. This left the deployed <keyword id="19998609" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Starlink-satellites" source="keywords">Starlink satellites</keyword> in a much lower orbit than intended, where they encountered significant atmospheric drag. At this level of drag, our maximum available thrust is unlikely to be enough to successfully raise the satellites, SpaceX said. The company attempted to use the satellites' onboard <keyword id="22415598" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ion-thrusters" source="keywords">ion thrusters</keyword> to raise their orbits. However, the situation was further complicated by an unusually "puffed-up" atmosphere due to recent high <keyword id="20792842" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="solar-activity" source="keywords">solar activity</keyword>. This extra atmospheric drag sealed the fate of the satellites, even with the attempted thruster boost. Also read: <a class="tout-title-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-nasa-need-better-space-debris-models-reduce-impact-risk-2024-7">SpaceX Dragon Capsule debris as big as a car hood crash-landed in North Carolina. It's part of a major space trash problem.</a> This incident marks a rare anomaly for the typically reliable Falcon 9, a workhorse for SpaceX missions. CEO <keyword id="19903807" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Elon-Musk" source="keywords">Elon Musk</keyword> acknowledged the situation on social media, referencing Star Trek in a lighthearted attempt to explain the extreme measures taken: "We had them attempt to run the ion thrusters at 'warp 9' speed...but unlike a Star Trek episode, this will probably not work." Meanwhile, the recent solar activity included a powerful <keyword id="13895659" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="x-class-solar-flare" source="Orion">X-class solar flare</keyword> from sunspot AR3738, which fortunately did not produce a geomagnetic storm. However, radiation from the solar flare ionised the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing shortwave radio blackouts over Australia, southeast Asia and Japan. Mariners and ham radio operators in the area may have noticed a 30-minute loss of signal at all frequencies below 25 MHz, spaceweather.com reported. Forecasts suggest that further solar explosions are possible. The space industry will have to monitor the situation closely ahead on any future launches. Related: <a class="tout-title-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-frat-boy-culture-workers-reportedly-planned-drinking-games-email-2024-7">Former SpaceX worker describes 'frat boy' culture where colleagues joked about overseeing launches while drunk</a>

20 Starlink satellites rained down on Earth yesterday; turbulent space weather doomed mission recovery

New Delhi, Union Home Minister <keyword id="6355521" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="amit-shah" source="Orion">Amit Shah</keyword> on Sunday took stock of the situation in the wake of incessant rains as he spoke to the chief ministers of Punjab and <keyword id="6358126" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="himachal-pradesh" source="Orion">Himachal Pradesh</keyword>, and the lieutenant governors of Delhi and Jammu and Kashmir, sources said. The home minister assured them all central help in tackling the arising situation. The sources said Shah spoke to the chief ministers of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh and took updates about losses due to the rains. In view of the <keyword id="6385438" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heavy-rains" source="Orion">heavy rains</keyword> in the national capital, the home minister also spoke to Lieutenant Governor V K Saxena and took updates. The home minister also spoke to LG of the Jammu and Kashmir and took information about the Amarnath pilgrimage which was suspended due to heavy rains, sources said. Shah appreciated the National Disaster Response Force and the State Disaster Response Force for helping the Amarnath pilgrims in Jammu and Kashmir. "The NDRF and the SDRF have always stood tall in service to the nation and humanity despite all odds. Their role has been crucial in fulfilling our goal of providing a safer <keyword id="44352" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="amarnath-yatra" source="Orion">Amarnath Yatra</keyword> to every pilgrim. Sharing a photograph of an SDRF Jawan carrying a lady yatri on his back for 3 km through the unforgiving terrain of the Himalayas on her way back from the holy shrine. I applaud them for being the beacon of safety for the citizens," he tweeted. Torrential rains pounded several parts of north India on Sunday with 15 people killed in landslides and other rain-related incidents, while most rivers, including the Yamuna in Delhi, were in spate. In cities and towns across the region, many roads and residential areas were submerged in knee-deep water with the civic system unable to hold on in the face of record rains. Flash floods washed away roads in hilly areas, leaving people marooned, while authorities asked tourists to plan their visit after the weather improves. Heavy downpour warnings have been issued for certain areas of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh, while in Delhi, which recorded its highest rainfall in a single day in July since 1982, authorities have cautioned over rising water level of the Yamuna. In three sperate incidents of landslides in Himachal Pradesh, where a red alert of extremely heavy rains has been issued for seven districts, five people were killed. The Amarnath pilgrimage resumed on Sunday from Panjtarni and Sheshnag base camps after remaining suspended for three days due to inclement weather in Kashmir, officials said. As soon as the skies cleared around the cave shrine, authorities opened the gates and allowed the stranded devotees to offer prayers at the naturally formed ice-lingam in south Kashmir Himalayas, they said. PTI ACB http://ptinews.com/images/pti.jpg "We bring the World to you" Disclaimer : This e-mail message may contain proprietary, confidential or legally privileged information for the sole use of the person or entity to whom this message was originally addressed. Please delete this e-mail, if it is not meant for you. TIR TIR

Amit Shah takes stock after heavy rains, speaks to Punjab, HP CMs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia claimed Wednesday that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin with a drone attack at the Kremlin.</li><li>Experts say there are some things that "don't quite add up."</li></ul>Security cameras captured striking footage of two drones, one of which can be seen exploding on video, above the hardened Kremlin citadel this week.Russian officials claimed the overnight drone incident was an attempt by Kyiv to assassinate its leader, but with little evidence linking it to the drones. Ukraine says it wasn't them. So who was responsible?In a war rife with propaganda, experts told Insider that they see hallmarks of Ukraine's long-range drone attacks and also of Russia's staged attempts to justify dangerous escalations to try to break the military stalemate. If it was a Ukrainian attack, it would suggest its leaders risked a major escalation with a poorly executed plan, with too few explosives and Putin not there anyway. And then there's the questions about how the drones got so close to the seat of power in one of the world's most defended capitols. There are a number of things in this mystery that still don't make sense or simply don't add up.Video from the incident shows one of the drones explode and rain down flaming debris over the Kremlin, potentially after being intercepted by Russian defenses. It also shows what appears to be two people on the roof of the building for an unexplained purpose.Blaming Ukraine, the Kremlin <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-unsuccessful-strikes-kyiv-ukraine-2023-05-03/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">characterized</a> the incident Wednesday as a "planned terrorist act and an attempt on the president's life," though there was no actual threat to Putin, given that he was not there at the time. The Kremlin said Russia "reserves the right to take retaliatory measures," but since Russia is already waging war in Ukraine and striking its population centers with long-range missiles, it is unclear how Moscow might escalate.Ukraine denied any involvement in the strike, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying: "We don't attack Putin or Moscow." But experts told Insider that despite bold statements from both countries, much remains uncertain. "There is a lot we still don't know about this strike," said Samuel Bendett, a Center for Naval Analyses expert on Russian defense and drones. James Patton Rogers, a military historian and adviser to NATO on drones and warfare, said that "there's a few things that don't quite add up in this situation."Bendett, for instance, noted that "it seems strange" that the unmanned aircraft managed to fly so close to the Kremlin complex, seemingly evading most of Moscow's layered air defenses. These defenses, especially for critical targets like the Kremlin, have been bolstered since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but, that being said, questions have come up about Russian force protection capabilities.Emphasizing that their thoughts at this stage are highly speculative at best, the experts outlined three possible scenarios that could explain Wednesday's dramatic events in the Russian capital.<div type="image" title="A &quot;No Drone Zone&quot; sign sits just off the Kremlin in central Moscow as it prohibits unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) flying over the area, on May 3, 2023." height="683" width="1024" msid="99971596" hostid="261"></div><h2>Scenario 1: Ukraine sends a warning</h2>For starters, there's the possibility Ukraine was behind the attack, as the Russians claim. They certainly have ample motive and assets.Ukraine has previously denied activities in Russia or on Russian-occupied territory only to later acknowledge involvement, such as when its forces <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosions-at-russian-base-were-missile-strikes-ukraine-military-says-2022-9">struck Russian military targets in Crimea</a> last summer. And though they didn't claim responsibility, there have also been strikes on military bases <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/attacks-russian-bases-force-protection-failure-ukraine-war-uk-2022-12">deep in Russian territory</a> attributed to Ukraine.So <a href="https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/3/7400496/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ukraine's denial of responsibility</a> is being taken with a grain of salt <a href="https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1653771055343845376?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">by some observers</a>."One explanation could be that it was launched by Ukraine to demonstrate the increased ability to launch deep precision strikes at one of the world's most secure and reinforced targets," <a href="https://twitter.com/DrJamesRogers/status/1653752730970734592" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote Patton Rogers on Twitter</a>. The type of drone used is still an open question, but none of potential models experts flagged for Insider rule Ukraine out as a suspect. Dr. Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, said, based on observing its flight pattern in the video, that it could be a small Chinese-made quadcopter, a fairly ubiquitous system. Bendett identified other possibilities as the Chinese-made Mugin-5 or the Ukrainian PD-1.Both Patton Rogers and Bendett told Insider that it is feasible the drone used could be the UJ-22, a fixed-wing drone often used by Ukrainian forces. Bendett said the "UJ-22 has a long range and can potentially reach Moscow."The UJ-22 is capable of autonomously flying around 500 miles towards a pre-set target. Its ability to fly comparatively low, and slowly, would potentially help it evade some radar, Patton Rogers said. Social media imagery suggests that the same model was used in an attempted drone strike on a Gazprom site near Moscow in February, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/28/russia-military-drone-attempted-strike-gas-facility-moscow-uav-ukraine" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Guardian reported</a> at the time. "One hypothesis — and it is a hypothesis because we don't know the details — could be that that strike a couple of months ago has allowed Ukraine to see what the first, or indeed the second layer of air defense for Russia consists of," Patton Rogers told Insider. But even if Ukraine were behind it, the likelihood of it being a serious attempt on Putin's life seems small, he said. "If it was truly an assassination attempt as opposed to a show of strength, then the payload seems rather small from the explosions that we've seen," Patton Rogers said, pointing to the relatively small blast seen in the video, suggesting its explosive payload was likely too small to penetrate a reinforced building. "It would be odd to send in just one or two of these systems and to give away the element of surprise without knowing exactly where Putin was," he added. Miron agreed that this would likely be more of a signal — to say that "even the Kremlin is vulnerable" after Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukraine."You could interpret it as a sort of warning," she said, noting that "next time it might be more explosive, or a swarm of drones."<div type="image" title="putin" height="1056" width="1500" msid="99971597" hostid="261"></div><h2>Scenario 2: Russia was behind it</h2>The signs are also there: Putin was never at risk. The iconic building suffered minimal damage. And politicians immediately seized on this to argue that Russia itself is under attack.Patton Rogers told Insider that it's possible the strike and the accompanying rhetoric was orchestrated by Russia to justify a possible assassination attack on Ukraine's Zelenskyy.Russia has engaged in so-called false flag actions to justify military action, and Russian rhetoric and actions during and just before the start of the Ukraine war repeatedly <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-planning-false-flag-operation-in-ukraine-us-intel-suggests-2022-1">set off alarm bells abroad</a>. Casting doubt on Russia's accusations, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that Russian allegations often have to be taken with "a very large shaker of salt."Claiming that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin would potentially "open up a new norm in the war," Patton Rogers said. To be sure, Russia has repeatedly tried — and failed — to capture or eliminate Zelenskyy since the war started more than a year ago, though perhaps Russia now plans to pursue a decapitation strategy more aggressively.Presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak told local media last year that the Ukrainian leader <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/volodymyr-zelenskyy-survived-12-assassination-attempts-says-aide-2022-3">had survived more than a dozen assassination</a> attempts. Senior US officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cia-director-warned-zelenskyy-russian-plot-to-kill-before-invasion-2023-1">were also aware of these plots.</a> That doesn't rule out a false-flag operation, but it may mean a different motive. US intelligence <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-planning-false-flag-operation-in-ukraine-us-intel-suggests-2022-1">said last year</a> that a group of Russian operatives were conducting a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, which would offer Moscow potential justification to mobilize more troops. On Twitter Wednesday, presidential adviser Podolyak said "Russia is clearly preparing a large-scale terrorist attack."Another potential motivation would be to bolster popular support for the war, Miron said. "Russia needs some sort of justification for why they are continuing to stay in Ukraine," she said. "And so this has a message for the domestic populace to say, 'Look how dangerous Ukraine is. They're even trying to kill Putin.'"<div type="image" title="no drone zone sign near Kremlin in Moscow Russia" height="1334" width="2000" msid="99971598" hostid="261"></div><h2>Scenario 3: The work of anti-Putin Russians</h2>"A third option could be that this has nothing to do with the Ukrainian military at all," said Patton Rogers, raising the possibility that dissident groups in Russia were responsible. Podolyak <a href="https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1653747936667262976" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made pretty much this exact claim in a tweet</a>, saying the attack "can only indicate the guerilla activities of local resistance forces. As you know, drones can be bought at any military store."There have been <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/russian-anti-war-group-claims-rail-track-sabotage-part-of-attempt-to-derail-ukraine-invasion-12730720" target="_blank" rel="noopener">multiple</a> <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-explosion-freight-train-ukraine-border/32386897.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> of attacks on critical infrastructure and assassination attempts throughout Russia's war in Ukraine, some of which have been claimed by various dissident groups. Russia's mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops last fall catalyzed resistance to Putin's regime, but most of their attacks have come against mobilization centers run by the Russian defense ministry.Patton Rogers said he hasn't "seen any indication" that such groups have the capacity to use drones in their attacks. "So that would be a leap of imagination based on the empirical data that we have at this moment in time," he said. Miron also acknowledged this possibility but pointed out that Moscow is highly secure with facial recognition cameras, which would be a strong deterrent for a local trying to launch and control a strike drone, better yet, two of them."Such an act would mean that the probability of this person being caught would be very, very high," she said. "I guess we'll never know the truth," Miron concluded. "Maybe if documents get declassified in a hundred years, then we'll know what exactly happened."

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