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Mumbai: Indian stock markets rallied on Monday after the <keyword id="20032950" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-led-government" source="keywords">BJP-led government</keyword> secured a majority in the latest state elections in Maharashtra. The <keyword id="20641216" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nifty-50" source="keywords">Nifty 50</keyword> index gained more than 1.45 per cent or 346.30 points to open at 24,253.55 points, while the BSE <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> index surged 1,076 points or 1.36 percent to open at 80,193.47 points. Experts noted that the election results have an impact on the markets today, and if past trends are followed, the markets may witness some rally amid the return of the BJP in the Maharashtra state elections. <keyword id="20161891" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ajay-Bagga" source="keywords">Ajay Bagga</keyword> Banking and Market Expert stated that "The just concluded elections in Maharashtra, the results of which were declared on November 23rd, will have a positive immediate impact on the stock markets. The landslide win for the BJP lead coalition in the Maharashtra state elections could lead to a short-term boost to the Indian stock markets which have been in a declining mode" He further added "Investors will interpret this mandate as favourable for the capex and infrastructure push that is ongoing in Maharashtra. The beneficiary sectors of this election are industrials, infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate and financials". In the sectoral indices on the National Stock Exchange, <keyword id="20065014" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-Realty" source="keywords">Nifty Realty</keyword> and <keyword id="19941314" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-PSU-Bank" source="keywords">Nifty PSU Bank</keyword> rallied with a surge of more than 2 percent, while other major indices also gained more than 1.5 per cent, including Nifty Metal, Nifty Media, and Nifty Oil &amp; Gas. In the Nifty 50 list, 49 stocks gained during the opening session, while only one stock declined. Shri Finance opened as the top gainer in the Nifty 50. The shares of the AdGroup also surged around 2 percent at the time of filing this report. <keyword id="19967296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Green" source="keywords">Adani Green</keyword> also climbed around 4 percent. "We are most likely to break the falling 20-day average that lies at 24,030, which will be the first time that'd happen since the record high of 27th September. Seasonality trends between now and the end of the year have been historically positive, with the Nifty rising 80% of the time during this period with an average return of over 4 per cent" Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research, Axis Securities. In other Asian markets, Japan and South Korea indices rallied. The Nikkei 225 index surged more than 1.5 percent, South Korea's Kospi also rose by 1.5 percent, Taiwan's Weighted Index was up by 0.48 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down marginally by 0.14 percent at the time of filing this report.

Nifty, Sensex rallied around 1.5 % after Maharashtra election results, Experts noted short term rally

<ul><li>Rollovers for <keyword id="109714" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="nifty-futures" source="Orion">Nifty Futures</keyword> stood at 83%, higher than the last three series, which were at 79%.</li><li>Looking back at the <keyword id="3703633" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="october-series" source="Orion">October series</keyword>, it initially appeared to be a calm period for the domestic markets, with trading within a stable range.</li><li>October’s selloff not only due to geopolitical risks, but because Indian equities reached the overheated zone. </li></ul> October has been tumultuous for investors as it began with much promise but ended up burning many who did not read the signals right. The November series of <keyword id="109714" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="nifty-futures" source="Orion">Nifty futures</keyword> is set to begin with a higher open interest (OI) base compared to the <keyword id="3703633" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="october-series" source="Orion">October series</keyword>, indicating a significant short build-up. Rollovers for <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword> futures stood at 83%, higher than the last three series, which were at 79%. This suggests that traders are actively shifting their positions to the November series. On the expiry day, the roll cost for <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword> was around 50-52 basis points (bps), slightly higher than the previous day's 50 bps. Market-wide futures open interest at the start of the November series is at approximately Rs 2.710 trillion, lower than the Rs 2.863 trillion seen at the start of the October series. However, market-wide rollovers are at 92%, higher than the three-month average of 91%. According to Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research, stock futures rollovers are at 94%, higher than the average rollovers of the last three series at 93%. The roll cost for single stock futures (SSF) today was around 63-66 bps, slightly lower than yesterday's 66-70 bps. Nuvama had anticipated October’s fall in their earlier note and it has played out pretty much like their analysts predicted. Looking back at the October series, it initially appeared to be a calm period for the domestic markets, with trading within a stable range. However, starting from October 18th, there was a sudden surge in volatile price activity, triggering relentless selling pressure. This pressure affected not only heavyweight stocks but also small and mid-cap stocks, which are usually market favorites. The October series will be remembered for its suspense, slight ups, and rapid descents, showcasing the dynamic nature of equity markets. October’s selloff can be attributed to several factors – not just geopolitical triggers. The key ones are rising US bond yields, rich valuations of the Indian market and, of course, the earnings season. Markets were simmering on multiple fronts, reaching an overheated territory. This correction, which was long overdue since the last series, has finally begun to unfold, marking a significant shift in the market landscape. During the October series, the Nifty Index declined by 3.4%, settling at 18,857, while the Nifty Bank was down 4.6%, settling at 42,280. The Midcap Index and Small-cap Index also experienced losses of 5% and 1.8%, respectively. In terms of sectoral performance, the <keyword id="4668838" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="psu-bank-index" source="Orion">PSU Bank Index</keyword> was hit the hardest, down 8.7%, followed by the <keyword id="139342" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="it-index" source="Orion">IT Index</keyword> (down 5.2%), Metals Index (down 4.7%), Media Index (down 4.4%), Pvt Bank Index (down 4.2%), Fin Serv Index (down 3.8%), and Pharma Index (down 2.5%). The only index that managed to settle in the green was the Realty Index, up 0.3%. Amidst the market drama, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out over $2 billion from Indian equities in October. However, the net inflow from March till date still totals to $14.4 billion. Rising interest rates, US bond yields, and lofty valuations are commonly cited reasons for FPIs withdrawing flows. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to inject funds, nearing an impressive $3.1 billion. The participation of high net worth individuals (HNIs) and retail investors, although not officially reported, is believed to have had a significant influence on the market. In conclusion, the rollovers and November series of Nifty futures provide valuable insights for investors. The higher open interest base and significant short build-up indicate a shift in market sentiment. The October series, with its volatile price activity and market turbulence, serves as a reminder of the dynamic nature of equity markets. Investors should closely monitor the rollover data and OI positions to gauge market sentiment and make informed investment decisions.

Rollovers and November series of Nifty Futures provides a clear roadmap for investors

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Nifty, Sensex rallied around 1.5 % after Maharashtra election results, Experts noted short term rally

ANI

Rollovers and November series of Nifty Futures provides a clear roadmap for investors

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