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<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider.</li><li>There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a Harris win.</li></ul>When trying to figure out the outcome of an election, most look at polling, expert takes, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-presidential-election-prediction-winner-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-8">even the stock market</a>. However, prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on the outcome of events, may be the most accurate way of calling the result ahead of November 5. They've successfully forecast the last few presidential cycles and even predicted President Joe Biden would drop out weeks in advance.While they're not without their misses — they were notably wrong during the 2022 midterm elections, and after Biden won the 2020 election — Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane says prediction markets are historically more accurate than traditional polling. In the past month, a series of election-related events—an attempted assassination against Trump, President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, and both candidates picking their running mates—have adjusted polling considerably.Yet Crane says these adjustments are often reflected in prediction markets more quickly.Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, predicted a 70% chance President Joe Biden would drop out of the race this year as far back as July 4, two weeks before he actually bowed out."It's an event-driven market. So the past month has been very active because events have occurred that are of extreme significance," Crane said.And the markets will likely get even quicker at factoring in new information on election night in November.As vote totals, exit polls, and absentee ballots come in, prediction markets "move pretty significantly and pretty quickly in response to that information," he said.<h2 id="7dc81ce7-8b15-46b0-8923-323c06d08f5d">The user base is (literally) invested in the outcome</h2>There's a range of participants in betting markets, and most are making highly informed wagers, Crane said.There are recreational bettors who may just have an interest in whatever topic is up for debate, as well as professional bettors and betting syndicates whose livelihoods are at stake. There are also companies looking to hedge risk if they may be affected by candidates' proposed policies. With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723813625985">$606.5 million</a> riding on the election outcome on Polymarket alone, participants watch the news closely, Crane said. Even if they aren't based in the US, they are just as clued into election updates since their money is on the line.He likens it to sports betting: "I don't need to be a professional football player to know how to understand what's going to happen in a football game. And in fact, I could be better at it than players in the game from a betting or informational perspective," he said.<h2 id="fb2c38a6-7896-42bc-9923-760bf527f3ee">Higher participation could boost accuracy</h2>Crane says that prediction markets could become even more accurate— and avoid any potential risk of manipulation by political groups —if they are fully legalized in the US.The most popular prediction markets are largely unavailable to US participants. US-based users can't bet on Polymarket, and Betfair, one of the longest-running events markets, is only available in some US states.PredictIt, a project founded by researchers in New Zealand, has operated in the US under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since 2014, but limits American bettors to up to $850 in wagers, and only 5,000 betters can participate in each market.PredictIt is facing headwinds from the CFTC, which is looking to outlaw all election betting. If passed, Americans wouldn't be legally allowed to participate in any prediction markets, though some may try using VPNs to bypass regulations, which likely occurs now.Crane also said more participation would make manipulation less likely.While there's no hard evidence, he guesses that political bets may be especially prone to attempts at manipulation or influence. "Everything kind of feeds off of everything else, and by trying to limit one aspect of it, or trying to police one aspect of it, it can often ruin the entire market function," Crane said."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets."

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): The mammoth exercise to count votes polled for the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections will begin at 8 am on Tuesday, with trends and results following shortly thereafter. Results of the <keyword id="6372146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Assembly-elections" source="Orion">Assembly elections</keyword> in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh were held simultaneously with voting for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Results of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies will also be declared today. Here're the LIVE results: <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third consecutive term in government, while the Congress-led opposition aims to unseat them. Most <keyword id="43771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="Orion">exit polls</keyword> have predicted a return of PM Modi to power, a development which will make him the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third successive term in power, Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc leaders met with the Election Commission of India urging it to ensure that postal ballots are counted and their results declared before the outcome of the EVMs is announced. Earlier, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said that a "very robust system" has been put in place. "There are around 10.5 lakh booths. Each booth will have 14 tables. There are observers and micro-observers. Nearly, 70-80 lakh people are involved in the process," he said. The national capital is all set to witness the battle. With tight security arrangements in place, Delhi is well-prepared to watch the results of the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-Elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. Around 70 companies of the security forces will be deployed at all seven counting centres across the national capital as part of the elaborate security arrangements made by the Delhi Police for today. Delhi traffic police issued a fresh advisory ahead of the counting of votes scheduled for Tuesday, listing key roads where traffic restrictions and diversions will start from 5 am onwards to ensure smooth vehicular movement. Prime Minister Modi's hometown, Gujarat, is also preparing for the vote-counting day as security forces rehearse and perform drills for the effortless conduct of D-day. Exit polls have predicted the return of the BJP to power. Various exit polls have given the BJP more than 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised for a hat-trick win in Lok Sabha polls with a massive majority. Exit polls were predicted on Saturday and indicated that the ruling party at the Centre would improve its performance in several states ruled by other parties. A few exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA could reach the goal of "400 paar" stated by BJP leaders in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls predicted that the ruling BJP-led NDA is poised to improve its performance over its 2019 record when it won 352 seats. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. The Lok Sabha elections were conducted in seven phases- on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The counting trends and results, as per data entered by RO/ARO for AC/PC will be available on the ECI website as well as on the Voter Helpline App, both iOS and Android Mobile Apps, according to the ECI. The Voter Helpline App can be downloaded from the Google Play Store or Apple Play Store. Users can use the available filter to find out the winning/leading or trailing candidate details, along with the constituency-wise or State-wise results from the Voter Helpline App. The local display of the trends and results by the CEOs/ROs/DEOs may also be done through the Digital Display Panels, it said.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 results: Mammoth vote-counting exercise set to begin at 8 am, amid high security

The <keyword id="20288056" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-led-NDA" source="keywords">BJP-led NDA</keyword> on Tuesday surged ahead with leads in more than 200 <keyword id="21073505" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="parliamentary-seats" source="keywords">parliamentary seats</keyword> out of 350 for which trends were available, with opposition <keyword id="19895684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="INDIA-bloc" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="INDIA bloc" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="INDIA bloc">INDIA bloc</keyword> ahead in 120, according to television reports. India Today gave leads in 205 seats to the NDA, while the INDIA bloc was ahead in 129; ABP News gave 230 to the NDA and 120 to the opposition alliance; and NDTV showed NDA leading in 194 seats with INDIA bloc closing in on 135 seats. Counting of votes for the <keyword id="56978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="Orion">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> has begun across states and Union Territories, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar told PTI. According to the Conduct of Election Rules, postal ballots were taken up for counting first and the process of counting of votes recorded in electronic voting machines (EVMs) began 30 minutes later. The process of counting votes cast through postal ballots and EVMs will continue simultaneously. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> While the Lok Sabha has 543 members, counting is being held for 542 seats after the BJP's Surat candidate Mukesh Dalal was elected unopposed. Counting of votes is also underway for the assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, where polling was held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha elections. Elections to the assemblies of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim were also held alongside the Lok Sabha polls. The results of these elections were declared on June 2. Since 2019, VVPAT (voter verifiable paper audit trail) slips from five randomly selected polling stations per assembly constituency -- or segment in case of Lok Sabha seats -- are matched with the EVM count for greater transparency.

Lok Sabha elections results: INDIA bloc leads in 120 seats in early trends; BJP-led NDA crosses 200 mark

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): With counting progressing in <keyword id="19912155" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-polls" source="keywords">Lok Sabha polls</keyword>, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led <keyword id="20344628" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Democratic-Alliance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="National Democratic Alliance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="National Democratic Alliance">National Democratic Alliance</keyword> is leading on more than 100 seats as per the latest trends according to TV channels. Around 642 million people voted in Lok Sabha elections held over seven phases in a mammoth six-week period. The counting of votes began starting with postal ballot papers amid tight security. The counting for State Legislative Assemblies of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies also began. The Lok Sabha elections for 543 seats of the lower house were held across seven phases. The <keyword id="19931558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bharatiya Janata Party" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bharatiya Janata Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> is eyeing a third straight term in power, while the Opposition under the umbrella of the <keyword id="19895684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="INDIA-bloc" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="INDIA bloc" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="INDIA bloc">INDIA bloc</keyword> is seeking to wrest power from the ruling party.Most exit polls predicted a straight term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with quite few of them projecting a two-thirds majority for the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (<keyword id="41281" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="Orion">NDA</keyword>). The Congress party and its allies dismissed the exit polls as "orchestrated" and a work of "fantasy", asserting that the opposition INDIA bloc will form the next government at the Centre. Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general election. With counting began for the Lok Sabha elections, which have seen the largest voter participation, the electoral fate of several leaders across the political spectrum will be decided. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh are among the senior BJP leaders in the fray. Key opposition leaders, including former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, NCP's Supriya Sule, and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, are also contesting the poll. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. Even before the counting of the votes, the Bharatiya Janata Party won one seat of Surat Lok Sabha. Earlier on April 22, Mukesh Dalal won the election "unopposed". Congress nominee Nilesh Kumbhani's nomination was rejected. His candidacy was rejected because of alleged discrepancies in the signatures of the proposers.

Lok Sabha election results: BJP-led NDA leading in 100 plus seats in early trends

A staggering 93 per cent of the candidates who won the 2024 <keyword id="56978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="Orion">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> are <keyword id="6366800" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="crorepatis" source="Orion">crorepatis</keyword>, up from 88 per cent in 2019, according to an analysis by poll rights body <keyword id="484381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Association-of-Democratic-Reforms" source="Orion">Association of Democratic Reforms</keyword> (<keyword id="45376" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ADR" source="Orion">ADR</keyword>). The top three wealthiest candidates are TDP's Chandra Sekhar Pemmasani from Andhra Pradesh's Guntur constituency with assets worth Rs 5,705 crore, BJP's Konda Vishweshwar Reddy from Telangana's Chevella with total assets amounting to Rs 4,568 crore and BJP's Naveen Jindal from Haryana's Kurukshetra with assets worth Rs 1,241 crore. Out of the 543 winning candidates, 504 are crorepatis, the analysis found. In 2019, 475 (88 per cent) winning candidates were crorepatis and 443 (82 per cent) in 2014. The trend indicates a steady climb since 2009 when only 315 (58 per cent) MPs were crorepatis. According to the analysis, 227 (95 per cent) of the BJP's 240 winning candidates, 92 (93 per cent) of the Congress' 99, 21 (95 per cent) of the DMK's 22, 27 (93 per cent) of the TMC's 29 and 34 (92 per cent) of the Samajwadi Party's 37 candidates have declared assets worth more than Rs 1 crore. All winning candidates of the AAP (3), the JDU (12) and the TDP (16) are crorepatis, ADR data showed. The analysis also delves into candidates' chances of winning based on their financial backgrounds. It found that the probability of a crorepati candidate clinching victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections stood at 19.6 per cent, compared to a meagre 0.7 per cent for candidates with assets less than a crore. The analysis also provides a breakdown of wealth distribution among the winning candidates. The data showed that 42 per cent of the candidates possess assets totalling Rs 10 crore and above. While 19 per cent of the candidates fall within the bracket of Rs 5 to 10 crore, 32 per cent hold assets ranging between Rs 1 and 5 crore. Only about 1 per cent of the winning candidates have assets worth less than Rs 20 lakh. Among major parties, the average assets per winning candidate vary significantly. The TDP leads with an average of Rs 442.26 crore per winner, followed by the BJP with Rs 50.04 crore, the DMK with Rs 31.22 crore, the Congress with Rs 22.93 crore, TMC with Rs 17.98 crore and SP with Rs 15.24 crore. The analysis also highlights disparities within the financial profiles of winning candidates. While some boast of substantial assets, others have relatively low worth. For instance, BJP's Jyotirmay Singh Mahato from West Bengal's Purulia has declared assets totalling a mere Rs 5 lakh. Similarly, TMC's Mitali Bag from West Bengal's Arambag holds assets worth Rs 7 lakh. Assets of SP's Priya Saroj from Uttar Pradesh's Machhlishahr are valued at Rs 11 lakh. In addition, the analysis identifies candidates with high liabilities. TDP's Pemmasani tops the list with liabilities exceeding Rs 1,038 crore. DMK's S Jagathratchakan from Tamil Nadu's Arakkonam has liabilities worth Rs 649 crore and TDP's Prabhakar Reddy Vemireddy from Andhra Pradesh's Nellore has liabilities worth Rs 197 crore.

93% of Lok Sabha 2024 poll winners are crorepatis: ADR analysis

With latest trends showing the BJP falling below the majority mark, the Congress on Tuesday said it has become clear that it will be a staggering political and decisively <keyword id="21932463" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moral-defeat" source="keywords">moral defeat</keyword> for <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. Counting of votes are underway for the <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>, with BJP emerging as the single largest party but not getting a majority. <keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha polls. Congress general secretary <keyword id="20035989" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jairam-Ramesh" source="keywords">Jairam Ramesh</keyword> in a post on X said the exit polls have been completely exposed for what they were -- "a <keyword id="21932465" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="total-sham" source="Orion">total sham</keyword>." "Trends for all 543 seats are now available. The following have become clear: It will be a staggering political and decisively moral defeat for Mr. Narendra Modi," Ramesh said. He said it has also become clear that "the exit polls that he orchestrated have been completely exposed for what they were--a total sham." Early trends from counting of votes on Tuesday threw up disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections, which appears to be losing heavily in its strongholds of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats. On its own, the BJP appeared to be falling below the majority mark with leads in 240 seats despite significant gains in Odisha, Telangana and Kerala, giving some solace to the party after the unexpected losses in the Hindi belt.

Election trends show moral defeat for Narendra Modi, expose exit polls as a "total sham": Congress general secretary

The votes are in, the election commission is armed, and tallies are finally being made. As lakhs of viewers tune into their news to update themselves, many are coming away shocked at the current standings. Despite confident promises of capturing 400 of the 543 Indian seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) has barely won a dozen or two seats more than the halfway mark of 272, as per the initial few rounds of counting. This is still an impressive position to be in, and certainly enough to help the BJP-led <keyword id="105903" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-democratic-alliance" source="Orion">National Democratic Alliance</keyword> (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) make another term. However, the overwhelming, yet lukewarm, support has inadvertently deflated the ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ chant echoed by the party throughout its campaigning. Further, this comes mere days after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath called the slogan the ‘common man’s mantra’. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Exit polls gone wrong" comment="subhead" text="Exit polls gone wrong"><keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> gone wrong</cmsannotation> Party conjecture aside, most exit polls had also predicted a landslide victory for the NDA, with some even predicting the party crossing the 400 marks, helping the alliance comfortably bring in a third term for current Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. However, Congress leaders staunchly dismissed these findings, asserting that the <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">INDIA</keyword> alliance will achieve at least over 250 seats this election. While exit polls have exercised a notoriously patchy reputation for delivering inaccurate findings in the past, the surveys might have gotten it wrong far more than usual this time around. For instance, the BJP has been predicted to win 400 seats by News 24-Today’s Chanakya poll, 358 as per Times Now-ETG, 392 per India V-CNX. <table class="redcator-table-advance" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; box-shadow: none; width: 955.049px; font-family: Merriweather; padding-bottom: 10px !important; background-image: inherit !important; background-position: inherit !important; background-size: inherit !important; background-repeat: inherit !important; background-attachment: inherit !important; background-origin: inherit !important; background-clip: inherit !important;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;"> </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">NDA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">INDIA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Others</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Times Now - ETG </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">358</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">152</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Matrize - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">361</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">126</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">56</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Jan Ki Baat - NDTV </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">377</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">151</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">15</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">PMARQ - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">359</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">154</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">30</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India News - D-Dynamics</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">371</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">125</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">47</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Today's Chanakya - News24</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">400</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">107</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">36</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India TV</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">386</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">124</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Poll of polls</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">369</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">143</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">31</td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> However, the Modi-led alliance has yet to cross the 300 mark. If this trend holds, a majority government will form with BJP-led NDA acquiring slightly below 300 seats, almost mirroring exact forecasts by on-ground reporters and some political experts. However, this is quite in contrast with almost all exit polls this election season. If the scorecard settles at the current mark, this will end up becoming the poorest performance for NDA since their historic win in 2014. The alliance came to power after winning an overwhelming 336 seats in 2014, and 353 seats in 2019. However, the main point of shock has come from the performance of Congress and the INDIA bloc, who have maintained a steadfast 200+ seats since the initial polling rounds. Out of the nine odd exit polls that came out with results recently, none had predicted the INDIA bloc to win over 150-170 seats. As the tallying moves into its final phases, let’s look at how exit polls performed in the previous election cycles. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2014 elections" comment="subhead" text="2014 elections">2014 elections</cmsannotation> In 2014, 834 million voters participated in the largest-ever elections worldwide — only to be surpassed by the 2019 <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections. An average of eight exit polls had indicated that the BJP would see a 283-seat victory, while the opposition would have had to settle for 105 seats. Just as predicted, the BJP saw a landslide victory and swooped in 282 of the 543 seats, with a vote percentage of 31.3%. This win was a huge blow to the INC, which only won 44 seats compared to the 206 in 2009. Since a party must win at least 55 seats to become an official opposition party in India, the Congress’s defeat meant that there was no official opposition party for India. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2019 elections" comment="subhead" text="2019 elections">2019 elections</cmsannotation> The previous Lok Sabha elections turned out to be an even bigger win for the BJP! In 2019, exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would peak at 306 and that the INC-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would win just 120. However, the post-poll statistics turned out to be underwhelming. The BJP won a whopping 37.36% of the vote — the highest by a political party since the 1989 general elections. It won 303 seats, while the NDA collectively won 352 seats. It was another crushing defeat for the Congress, which won just 52 seats, failing to claim the post of Leader of the Opposition once again.

Trends indicate INDIA maintaining 200+ seats, defying all exit poll predictions; how accurate have these surveys been since 2014?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new poll showed Kamala Harris had a surprise 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa.</li><li>Betting odds on Robinhood and Kalshi tightened following the news.</li></ul>Vice President Kamala Harris' betting odds jumped overnight after a new poll showed she held a surprise lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">a state he won easily</a> in both 2016 and 2020.A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/">Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll</a> by Selzer &amp; Co. published on Saturday showed Harris with a three-point lead in the state.The results were reflected in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-women-gender-gap-election-2024-10">tightening odds</a> in betting markets on Sunday morning.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kalshi.com/">On Kalshi</a>, the popular US-based prediction platform, Harris' odds of winning the election have soared from 35% on October 29 to 50% at the time of writing.Harris' odds of winning the popular vote also increased on Kalshi, rising from a low of about 61% on October 29 to 77% at the time of writing.The electronic trading platform Robinhood also showed narrowing odds ahead of Tuesday's election.Trump held a 66% to 39% lead on October 29, but at the time of writing, that lead had narrowed to 52% to 51%.The Iowa poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31, with a 3.4-point margin of error.The results marked a sharp swing from September when the same poll showed Trump ahead by four points.Betting markets have capitalized on this year's presidential election. Kalshi attracted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">more than $100 million</a> in bets on who will win in October alone.Meanwhile, Polymarket, another prediction market — not available to US citizens — saw betting volume for the US election reach more than $2 billion on its platform last month, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theblock.co/post/321725/polymarket-betting-volume-for-us-presidential-election-winner-crosses-2-billion">The Block</a> reported.

You Searched For "poll results" and got 9 results

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Lok Sabha election results: BJP-led NDA leading in 100 plus seats in early trends

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Election trends show moral defeat for Narendra Modi, expose exit polls as a "total sham": Congress general secretary

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Trends indicate INDIA maintaining 200+ seats, defying all exit poll predictions; how accurate have these surveys been since 2014?

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