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India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks were mostly higher Tuesday morning after closing lower in Monday's session. </li><li>Oil prices slid, while investors shrugged off sluggishness in China stocks. </li></ul>Stock markets opened higher on Tuesday as oil prices dipped, helping investors recover slightly after Monday's losing session. International crude prices fell 3%, with Brent down to $78.50 a barrel. US oil prices were also down 3% to $74.77 a barrel. Traders also appeared to shrug off the sluggishness in Chinese stocks. Though the country's soaring equities have recently stolen the spotlight, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10">rally stumbled</a> on Tuesday after Beijing failed to announce fresh stimulus as many observers had been expecting. Instead, Wall Street is largely focused on earnings and upcoming inflation data, scheduled for release on Thursday. September's consumer price index has regained the spotlight as a factor that could determine whether the Federal Reserve can continue to cut interest rates this year after last month's jobs report was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*qs0pxj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4Mzk0MTk5LjUyLjAuMA..">much stronger than expected</a>.Economists project consumer inflation for September to come in at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in August.However, any upside surprise could trigger stock volatility this week, as it could indicate the Fed may have to keep <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">interest rates higher for longer</a>, says Bank of America.Meanwhile, Tuesday marked the of the earnings season, kicking with PepsiCo. Shares in the beverage firm fell as the company cut its full-year guidance. Major US financial firms including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock report on Friday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,716.40, up 0.36% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,915.00, down 0.1% (-42.74 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,016.89, up 0.51% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-rally-outlook-bullish-drivers-stimulus-goldman-sachs-2024-10?_gl=1*j3t12y*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4MzkyNzQxLjQyLjAuMA..">Goldman Sachs is betting that the Chinese equity rally could run up another 20%</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-fed-outlook-recession-economy-stocks-ed-yardeni-2024-10">The Fed won't cut any more this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead</a>, Ed Yardeni says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-trader-lost-306-million-according-to-lawsuit-rbc-2024-10?_gl=1*8qe2uw*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4MzkyODQyLjYuMC4w">A Tesla trader turned $65,000 into $306 million before losing it all, according to a lawsuit.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude slid 3% to $74.77 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 3% to $78.50 a barrel</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was essentially flat at $2,665.5 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points at 4.053%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> fell 1.44% to $62,384.53.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes edge up as oil prices ease and traders look to key inflation data

Mumbai: The rupee slipped 1 paisa to an all-time low of 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as persistent <keyword id="20520117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-outflows" source="keywords">foreign fund outflows</keyword> and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit. Forex traders said the USDINR pair has shown significant volatility in recent sessions, with the rupee inching closer to its all-time low of 84.40. This downward pressure is largely driven by global factors, particularly the Dollar Index's strengthening. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee fell 1 paisa to a new lifetime low of 84.39 against the US dollar. "It appears that the rupee has established support around the current levels, with depreciation limited near 84.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the RBI stands tall as the depreciation in the rupee seems to be limited as the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) continues to sell the dollars to protect the sharp depreciation. "For the 5th consecutive week, India's forex reserves declined, possibly due to RBI selling the dollars. Currently, the forex reserves of India stand at USD 682 billion down from the recent all-time high of USD 704 billion," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04 per cent at 105.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.25 per cent to USD 72.07 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 210.66 points, or 0.27 per cent lower, to 78,464.52 points. The Nifty fell 100.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 23,783.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 3,024.31 crore, according to exchange data. On the macroeconomic front, retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. India's industrial production expanded by 3.1 per cent in September after recording a contraction in the preceding month, as all three major segments -- mining, manufacturing, and power generation -- showed improvement. However, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) during the month was lower than 6.4 per cent registered in September 2023.

Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil and gas prices will likely fall under Trump's proposed tariffs, a Bank of America strategist said.</li><li>He said tariffs will lead to a trade war, dampening demand and prices in the process.</li></ul>Oil and gas prices are set to fall amid an onslaught of steep tariffs under Donald Trump, according to Bank of America strategist Francisco Blanch.Blanch says the president-elect's proposed tariffs will likely curb global trade, driving down oil and gas prices in the process."America first means commodities second, and I think we kind of start from that point," he said in a Monday interview with Bloomberg Television.Trump has floated proposals of sweeping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">tariffs</a> of 10% to 20% on all countries, with the exception of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-trump-us-election-tariffs-chinese-economy-trade-war-2024-10">China</a>, where the US would impose steeper duties of 60%. As those tariffs heighten trade tensions, that could slow economic growth and lead to higher inflation and interest rates, dampening demand and prices, Blanch's comments suggest.That could have an impact on production, too, Blanch says.In theory, Trump's deregulatory stances and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-climate-policies-ev-subsidies-renewables-fossil-fuel-drilling-2024-7?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=business-sf&amp;utm_source=facebook&amp;fbclid=IwY2xjawGoeZpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfLoB8Cl3sA7ngI6j0XqTGKOlLQQq9ktKNJV9_yySewhWgslJ6LnmWQFXg_aem_oIAve7xxBu3McHKWflkroA">pro-fossil fuel</a> views should boost production. Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to lower energy prices by boosting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-lower-gas-prices-exxonmobil-ceo-oil-boom-2024-11">US oil production</a>, saying, "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," at a rally in Detroit last month."I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months," he added.But if prices are lower amid sweeping tariffs, that could mean production slows, too, as producers see less incentive to accelerate drilling, Blanch says."In America, prices determine how much output producers ultimately pull out of the ground, and I think the bigger risk to prices really is coming from tariffs. We have potentially a trade war here," he said, adding that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">trade war</a> is the main downside risk to demand globally.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11?_gl=1*4rar5l*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTk1ODgyNS40MjAuMS4xNzMxOTU5NDEwLjIxLjAuMA..">US oil production</a> is also already historically high, reaching 13.4 million barrels a day in August to hit a new all-time monthly high.There are also some upside risks to commodity prices, Blanch acknowledges.He points to geopolitical tensions, including those in the Middle East and Ukraine. During his first term, Trump employed strict sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and with Marco Rubio appointed as Secretary of State, that could bring such policies back, Blanch says."He's an anti-Iran, anti-Venezuela hawk. I think that could have an impact," he said, implying that stricter sanctions on those countries could drive up prices."Whatever happens to those geopolitical events that we're going through right now I think will also determine the path," he added.

'America first means commodities second': Oil and gas prices will tank under a Trump presidency, BofA strategist says

New Delhi: While the <keyword id="20199673" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moderation" source="keywords">moderation</keyword> in <keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword> <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> is a welcome development, experts caution that the road ahead could be bumpy. The sequential momentum in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent month-on-month increase in prices, higher than the average sequential growth, indicating that inflationary pressures may persist. The uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall and the potential for excess rainfall in the coming months pose additional risks to food prices. RajSinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge, noted, "Despite the moderation in the inflation of the food and beverage basket when compared to last year, the sequential momentum remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent M-o-M increase in prices, higher than an average sequential grow." Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, highlighted the impact of the high-base effect, stating, While the high-base effect -- along with sequential monthly movements -- was supportive of food inflation, it had an adverse bearing on core inflation. The big worry now is food prices continue to be elevated with the on-month rise slightly higher than usual for July. "The good part is monsoon and sowing have been progressing well and the expectation is that the arrival of fresh supplies in the market should over the next few months curb the food price rise. Overall, though, we expect inflation to ease and average 4.5 per cent this fiscal mostly due to softer food prices. This should allow the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to begin cutting earliest by October", Joshi added. Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director of Ladderup Wealth Management, expressed optimism regarding the CPI data, stating, "This decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in the Consumer Food Price Index, which fell from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July. This improvement should offer reassurance to the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI), which has indicated that <keyword id="19920341" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="keywords">rate cuts</keyword> will occur only when inflation sustainably aligns with its 4 per cent target. He added, "Positive expectations for the monsoon and adequate buffer stocks support the continued downward trend of CPI. However, any substantial rise in crude oil prices due to the ongoing geopolitical crisis could adversely affect inflation and the broader economy." Sanjeev Agrawal, President of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, also commended the decline in CPI inflation, stating, "It is highly appreciable that the CPI inflation has exhibited a decline in the year-on-year inflation rate at 3.5 per cent for the month of July 2024 from 5.08 per cent in June 2024." He added, "The food and beverages inflation eased sharply from 8.4 per cent in June 2024 to 5.06 per cent in July 2024 and fuel and light inflation from -3.7 per cent in June 2024 to -5.4 per cent in July 2024, are the main drivers of the softening inflation trajectory." India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased significantly to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, marking its lowest level in nearly five years and a sharp drop from 5.08 per cent in June. This decline, which brought inflation below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time since 2019, has been largely attributed to a favourable base effect and a dramatic reduction in <keyword id="20621131" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable-prices" source="keywords">vegetable prices</keyword>. The primary driver behind this sharp moderation was the steep fall in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to 6.8 per cent in July. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) also saw a significant reduction, falling from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July, contributing to the overall easing of CPI inflation. (ANI)

Experts welcome moderation of inflation in July, by warns of continued inflationary pressure ahead

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's presidency may pressure Russia's oil and gas industry.</li><li>The EU is thinking about replacing Russian LNG with US shipments, potentially affecting trade dynamics.</li></ul>Russia's lucrative oil and gas industry could come under greater pressure when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.Domestically, Trump is championing the US oil and gas industry and encouraging production — which is likely to underscore America's position as an oil and gas giant.Meanwhile, the European Union said it could consider buying more US liquefied natural gas in a deal with Trump that would address a trade deficit. The EU doesn't have to burn bridges to negotiate with Trump, because the bloc still imports LNG from Russia."We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters on Friday."It's something where we can get into a discussion," she said, referring to US's trade deficit with the eurozone, which reached <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">$131.3 billion in 2022.</a>To be sure, it's ultimately up to EU importers to decide where to import energy supplies based on market conditions.However, at least one EU country — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/d23591fc-0463-4346-865c-0e851a256ed2">Belgium</a> — is calling on the bloc to ban Russian LNG imports to further squeeze Moscow's war chest.The EU — which previously relied on Russian energy — banned seaborne Russian crude imports and refined petroleum products following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.The EU has also cut most of its piped natural gas imports from Russia, replacing much of it with LNG from the US — which is now a top exporter of the fuel to Europe, accounting for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en">46% of the bloc's supply in 2023.</a>Russia accounts for 8% of the EU's LNG imports. Other major LNG exporters to the EU include Qatar and Algeria."It would be in the interest of the US that Europe continues to shun Russian fossil fuels, given the US oil and gas industry has been one of the key beneficiaries of this move," wrote Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-a-trump-presidency-means-for-oil-and-gas-markets/">ING,</a> on Friday.<h2 id="e98e057f-427c-49fe-80b4-6b3536753369">'Drill, baby, drill'</h2>Trump's victory could shake up the highly politicized energy industry as he has made it clear that he supports oil production."I make this pledge to the great people of America: I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates, and lower the cost of energy," Trump said in his Republican National Convention speech in July."We will drill, baby, drill," Trump said.While Trump's pledges to loosen energy regulations in the US are seen as a boost to the industry, it could increase oil supplies — a negative for prices.For consumers, lower energy prices translate to lower pump prices and electricity bills.However, it would also pressure energy company profits and, in turn, discourage more production — which is at record levels in the US.But there could also be other moving parts in Trump's second term, including potential sanctions on oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia — all of which could tighten global supplies and support prices.Even before Trump's second election, there are so many uncertainties surrounding the geopolitical economy of energy that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/major-oil-producers-saudi-arabia-russia-diversify-economies-opec-shale-2024-10">Saudi Arabia and Russia,</a> two of the largest oil producers, are trying to diversify their economies.In the meantime, the broad energy market is taking a wait-and-see stance."Initial market reactions have been muted to Trump's election victory, but in the medium term, he is expected to reinforce the US' role as a leading oil and LNG exporter," wrote Kaushal Ramesh, the head of gas and LNG analytics at Rystad Energy research firm on Monday.

Russia's lucrative oil and oil industry is an easy target for Europe after Trump's election victory

In April, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) governor Shaktikanta Das referred to <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> as the ‘elephant in the room’. He said, “The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest. We would like the elephant to return to the forest and remain there on a durable basis… Elephant moves slowly, and last mile inflation tends to be sticky.” On Friday, the Indian government data showed that the year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) for June 2024 stood at 5.08 per cent — rising from 4.75% last month. This was the first time the headline inflation had risen since December 2023! Looks like the elephant decided to stop and look back on its way to the forest. The question remains, what’s next — will it return to the forest or return to the room to haunt us again? <h2>Food price inflation at a record high</h2> The major driver for the higher inflation figures this month has been the rising <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> across India. In fact, food price inflation almost doubled year-on-year in June, rising to 8.36 per cent last month compared to 4.63 per cent in June 2023. Inflation in the food basket was 9.36 per cent in June, up from 8.69 per cent in May, according to the data of the National Statistical Office (NSO). Government data showed that <keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">retail inflation</keyword> for all food segments, including cereal, meat, eggs, milk, oils, fruits, vegetables, pulses, sugar, spices, prepared snacks, and sweets, increased month-on-month. This was the main cause for retail inflation hardening in June, diverging from the previous months' moderation. While the inflation rate based on the all-India CPI for June 2024 stood at 5.08%, rural and urban inflation rates also spiked to 5.66 per cent and 4.39 per cent, respectively. “Barring the food basket, inflation is indicating signs of bottoming out broadly across the non-food categories, also seen in the inflation in the core categories averaging at 3.5% in the last six months. A stable monsoon will play an important role in stabilising food prices and inflation levels over the next few months,” said Vivek Rathi, National Director Research, Knight Frank India. In May, annual retail inflation was at a 12-month low of 4.75%, slightly down from April's 4.83%. In December last year, retail inflation stood at 5.7 % and had been moderating until June. On the other hand, the US CPI rose only 3% on an annual basis in June versus expectations of 3.2%. Month-over-month, the US CPI declined 0.1%, on expectations for a 0.1% rise. <h2>There goes the chance of an early rate cut?</h2> While European central banks started to cut interest rates last month, hopes of such policy moves seem to have been derailed by these inflation figures. Indian central bank, RBI, has remained cautiously focused on inflation as the growth prospects remained robust. It has been waiting for the final phase of disinflation to materialise before considering rate cuts. The situation, however, does seem rather peculiar — as long as inflation does not align with the central bank's 4% target, the interest rates may remain rather high. However, the current economic environment is not gloomy at all, characterized by a robust GDP growth rate, estimated at 8.2% for 2023-24. Hence, the RBI adopts a wait-and-see approach. And the wait is likely to continue a little while longer. This year, food prices have become a significant issue for policymakers in India, and the RBI governor pinned his hopes on a good monsoon season to alleviate the food price inflation concerns. So far, the monsoon has stood up to our expectations, yet the food prices have remained stubbornly high, mainly due to extended heat wave conditions in June. "The CPI inflation came marginally higher than our expectations. While the <keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">food inflation</keyword> risks will continue to dominate in the near term, we expect better sowing patterns and spatial distribution of rains to eventually ease the price pressures beyond these volatile months. Having said that, the central bank will be in no hurry to ease <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> given the headroom from robust growth in the backdrop of near-term inflation risks," said Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. India's retail inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) comfort range of 2-6% but exceeds the ideal 4% scenario. While inflation is a global concern, India has so far managed its inflation trajectory relatively well. Since May 2022, the RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points cumulatively to combat inflation. However, over the last eight policy cycles, the central bank has kept the rates consistent at 6.5%. The next monetary policy meeting of the RBI is scheduled for early August. And with the higher-than-expected inflation data, the central bank is likely to keep the rate unchanged next month as well for the ninth consecutive month. However, hopes are still alive for a rate cut towards the end of the year. "We are not ruling out a stance change in October 2024 and a 25 bps rate cut each in December 2024 and February 2025, followed by an extended pause, if the food inflation outlook turns decidedly favourable on the back of a normal magnitude and favourable distribution of rainfall in the rest of the monsoon season, and there are no other shocks, either global or domestic," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. (With inputs from ANI and PTI) <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="110784179" title="Monetary Policy Committee keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, confirms RBI governor Shaktikanta Das" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div> <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="110788776" title="RBI retains inflation projection for FY25 at 4.5%" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div>

Inflation spikes in June 2024 due to high food prices; Likely to affect RBI’s decision on interest rate

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks bounced back from Monday's losing session as oil dropped and tech stocks surged.</li><li>Earnings season kicked off Tuesday, and major banks are scheduled to report on Friday.</li></ul>US stocks rebounded on Tuesday after Monday's losses, with momentum revived by a tech rally and falling crude prices.The Magnificent 7 tech cohort led the market higher, with Nvidia at the forefront. The AI chipmaker climbed 4% on Tuesday, while <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock?miRedirects=1">Tesla</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a> all traded more than 1% higher.The surge in oil prices that pressured stocks on Monday, meanwhile, retraced, with international and US crude prices falling more than 4%. Energy traders pulled back on Monday as they continued to await retaliation from Israel over Iran's missile barrage last week, while a disappointing stimulus update in China weighed on the outlook for oil demand. In the US, Wall Street is keeping an eye on the upcoming consumer price index report for September. The inflation data will publish on Thursday, and will inform investors what to expect from the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting in November. Though the market had been anticipating another half-point interest rate cut next month, last Friday's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*qs0pxj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4Mzk0MTk5LjUyLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">big jobs report</a> erased those forecasts. Bank of America expects any upside surprise in the inflation data may keep <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rates higher for longer</a>.At the same time, Fed officials have cited optimistic expectations for rate cuts to continue. On Monday, New York Fed president John Williams told the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ea0b03d3-47c6-4b33-a6a7-770f5898f24e">Financial Times</a> that a quarter-point cut is a "very good base case."Economists project consumer inflation for September to come in at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in August.Tuesday's session also marked the start of earnings season. In a new report, BofA noted that the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10?_gl=1*5idogj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEyOTQ3LjUyLjAuMA">bar for third-quarter earnings is low</a>, adding that investors will likely reward firms as long as they express confidence about lower rates.Major US financial firms, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, report results on Friday.Among Tuesday's notable movers was Roblox, which briefly fell <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/roblox-stock-price-short-seller-hindenburg-report-gaming-inflated-metrics-2024-10?_gl=1*1dndsjr*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDE2ODE3LjYwLjAuMA..">nearly 10% in intraday trading,</a> after short-seller Hindenburg Research took aim at the gaming platform.Meanwhile, China's sharp equity rally <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">showed signs of slowing down</a>. Beijing's failure to announce new stimulus plans on Tuesday has disappointed investors.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,751.16, up 0.97% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,080.37, up 0.3% (+126.13 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,182.92, up 1.45% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/hurricane-milton-power-outage-florida-electricity-natural-gas-prices-futures-2024-10?_gl=1*13jm4ua*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEyODYyLjYwLjAuMA..">Energy traders bet Hurricane Milton will spark power outages and leave power plants idling in Florida.</a></li><li>Russia's economy can withstand pressure for several more years but will eventually face an<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10"> "unsolvable trilemma," </a>an expert says.</li><li>Rate cuts were supposed to ease mortgage rates. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">Here's why the opposite happened.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-stimulus-demand-emerging-markets-world-bank-2024-10">China's stimulus won't stop its GDP decline next year</a>, the World Bank says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/carl-icahn-hindenburg-research-short-seller-adani-group-nikola-block-2023-5?_gl=1*mqn88g*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEzMDgzLjQxLjAuMA..#3-draftkings-3">Roblox, DraftKings, or Icahn Enterprises: here are the biggest calls made by short-seller Hindenberg Research.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/meme-coins-bitcoin-inventor-surge-len-sassaman-crypto-hbo-documentary-2024-10?_gl=1*1kl3k6d*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEzMDExLjUwLjAuMA..">Meme coins tied to the identity of bitcoin's inventor have rallied ahead of a new documentary that could reveal their identity</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude sank 4.1% to $73.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, tumbled 4.1% to $77.57 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> fell 0.9% to $2,641 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was nearly flat at 4.018%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> dropped by 1.7% to $62,226.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tech rally leads stocks higher as oil prices plunge and earnings kick off

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks fell Monday as bond yields and oil prices moved higher.</li><li>The rise in oil prices and solid September jobs report has revived inflation concerns.</li></ul>US stocks retreated from near-record highs on Monday, with all three major moving averages declining by about 1%.A number of risk factors pushed stocks lower on Monday, including a jump in interest rates and oil prices, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">growing intensity of Hurricane Milton</a>, and negative news flow for a couple of mega-cap technology stocks.The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped back above 4% on Monday, representing its highest level in about two months. Friday's release of the September jobs report sparked the move higher in yields.The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll report showed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">employers added 254,000 jobs</a> last month, crushing estimates of about 150,000. The unemployment rate also declined slightly to 4.1%.Meanwhile, oil prices continued to surge on Monday, rising by about 4% as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer on the first anniversary of the Hamas-led attack against Israel.The rise in oil prices and the stronger jobs report are fanning fears of a potential rebound in inflation, which would mean fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve."After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to 'no rush to ease further' during the fall. We can't rule out 'higher for longer' making a comeback this winter. We are in the none-and-done camp for the rest of this year," Yardeni Research said in a note on Monday.Finally, a Wells Fargo analyst downgrade of Amazon sent that stock lower by about 3%, while Alphabet shares dropped 2% after a judge ordered <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-orders-google-open-up-app-store-competition-2024-10-07/">the company to open its app store to more competition,</a> handing a victory to Epic Games.Investors will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10">turn their attention to earnings season, which kicks off this week</a> with results from PepsiCo on Tuesday, followed by the first of the major banks on Friday.Finally, the September CPI report is also due out this Thursday. Economists expect the CPI index to rise 2.3% year-over-year in September, down from 2.5% in August. Bank of America analysts note that an upside surprise in last month's inflation reading has the potential <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10">to send stocks on a roller coaster this week</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,695.94, down 0.96% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,954.24, down 0.94% (-398.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,923.90, down 1.18% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-nvda-smci-super-micro-100000-gpu-chips-2024-10">Nvidia stock jumped 4% on Monday after Super Micro Computer said it was shipping more than 100,000 GPUs per quarter.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-september-jobs-report-growth-value-david-kelly-2024-10">JPMorgan's chief strategist told Business Insider why he is feeling "increasingly queasy" about the market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-trader-lost-306-million-according-to-lawsuit-rbc-2024-10">A Tesla trader turned $65,000 into $306 million before losing it all, according to a lawsuit.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-housing-market-home-prices-falling-austin-dallas-moving-trends-2024-10">Falling home prices and fed-up residents show the Texas housing boom is slowing down.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-fed-interest-rate-cuts-jobs-report-us-economy-2024-10">Consumer prices are still in focus for investors despite the Fed's recent pivot to the labor market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-goldman-sachs-boosts-sp500-price-target-again-2024-10">Goldman Sachs increased its year-end S&amp;P 500 price target for the third time this year to 6,000.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude jumped 3.93% to $77.30 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 3.89% to $81.09 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was down 0.18% to $2,663.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 7 basis points at 4.032%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was higher by 0.82% to $63,335.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes drop and yields, oil prices spike ahead of earnings and fresh economic data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US is in an industrial recession, according to Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina. </li><li>Manufacturing activity has contracted for the last six months in a row, per the latest ISM report.</li></ul>The US economy is already experiencing an industrial recession — and it could snowball into a full-fledged downturn if oil prices continue to surge, according to Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina.Oubina, a managing director and senior economist at the investment bank, pointed to the continued slowdown in the manufacturing sector, with activity contracting in September for a sixth straight month. It also marks the 22nd monthly contraction over the last 23 months, according to the latest report from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/september/">Institute of Supply Management</a>.The slowdown is likely to drag on, Oubina predicted."The only things that are up are things that are financed by chips, [the Inflation Reduction Act], all the high-tech stuff, fueling data centers, semiconductors, etc. That's been up. But in general, the economy's showing an industrial recession," Oubina said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0-dWISdBvs">Fox Business</a> on Tuesday.The economy could slip into a broader recession if there's a spike in oil and energy prices, Oubina added. That's in line with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/economy-oil-prices-outlook-stagflation-israel-iran-war-nouriel-roubini-2024-9?_gl=1*1urq63q*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzg3NDg3OC4zOTkuMS4xNzI3ODc2NjcxLjU5LjAuMA..">what other economists have warned</a>, with some pointing to the oil price shock that triggered a downturn in the 1970s.Brent crude, the international benchmark, soared this week after Iran launched a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-markets-react-israel-iran-escalates-dockworkers-strike-helene-2024-10">missile attack on Israel</a>, sparking fear of supply disruptions."I think of the biggest risk of that, right, a retaliation by Israel that actually targets oil production facilities," he said of the Tuesday attack. "Oil prices spiking, energy prices spiking in the past, have been enough to tip the economy from a slowing into a recession. So I think that's what we have to worry about."Other economists have flagged the slowdown in manufacturing and a potential rise in oil prices as risks to a soft landing for the US economy. Overall economic growth, however, remains strong. GDP is estimated to have grown 2.5% last quarter, according to the latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">projection</a> from the Atlanta Fed. That follows nearly 3% growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the services sector of the economy remains "healthy," despite "subdued" manufacturing activity, Bank of America strategists wrote in a Tuesday note.

The economy is in an industrial recession and higher oil prices could spark a full downturn, Wall Street economist says

The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

You Searched For "oil prices inflation" and got 11 results

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Stock market today: Indexes edge up as oil prices ease and traders look to key inflation data

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Stock market today: Tech rally leads stocks higher as oil prices plunge and earnings kick off

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Stock market today: Indexes drop and yields, oil prices spike ahead of earnings and fresh economic data

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The economy is in an industrial recession and higher oil prices could spark a full downturn, Wall Street economist says

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