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New Delhi, The per capita monthly household expenditure more than doubled in 2022-23 as compared to 2011-12, according to the latest study of <keyword id="20720109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-sample-survey-office" source="keywords">National Sample Survey Office</keyword> (<keyword id="20411472" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nsso" source="keywords">NSSO</keyword>). NSSO, under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, conducted Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (<keyword id="20462990" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hces" source="keywords">HCES</keyword>) during August 2022 to July 2023, an official statement said on Saturday. The survey aims at generating estimates of household Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) and its distribution separately for the rural and urban sectors of the country, for states and Union Territories, and for different socio-economic groups. As per the survey, the average MPCE at current prices (without imputation) more than doubled to Rs 6,459 in urban areas in 2022-23 from Rs 2,630 in 2011-12. Similarly in rural areas, it jumped to Rs 3,773 from Rs 1,430 at current prices. As per the study, the average MPCE at 2011-12 prices (without imputation) also increased to Rs 3,510 in 2022-23 from Rs 2,630 in 2011-12 in urban areas. Similarly, it rose to Rs 2,008 from Rs 1,430 in rural areas at 2011-12 prices. It showed that the average MPCE also increased (with imputation) to Rs 6,521 in 2022-23 from Rs 2,630 in 2011-12 at current prices in urban areas. Similarly, it rose to Rs 3,860 from Rs 1,430 in rural areas. The average MPCE at 2011-12 prices (with imputation) increased to Rs 3,544 in 2022-23 from Rs 2,630 in 2011-12 in urban areas. It increased to Rs 2,054 from Rs 1,430 in rural areas. The estimates of MPCE are based on the data collected from 2,61,746 households (1,55,014 in rural areas and 1,06,732 in urban areas) in the central sample spread over all states and Union Territories. In HCES:2022-23, the usual practice of imputation of the value figures for consumption out of home-grown/home-produced stock and gifts, loans, free collection and goods received in exchange of goods and services etc. has been continued; and accordingly, estimates of MPCE have been generated. Besides, a provision for collection of information on the quantity of consumption for a number of items, received and consumed by the households free of cost through various social welfare programmes has been made in HCES:2022-23. Consequently, the value figures for food items: rice, wheat/atta, jowar, bajra, maize, <keyword id="20347236" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ragi" source="keywords">ragi</keyword>, barley, small millets, pulses, gram, salt, sugar, edible oil and non-food items: laptop/PC, <keyword id="19986587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tablet" source="keywords">tablet</keyword>, mobile handset, bicycle, motorcycle/Scooty, clothing (school uniform), footwear (school shoe etc.) received free of cost by the households through these programmes, have been imputed using an appropriate method. Accordingly, another set of estimates of MPCE considering imputed values of these items and of consumption out of home produce, free collection, gifts, loans etc. has also been compiled for HCES: 2022-23.

Monthly household consumer spending more than doubled in last decade

Gender discrimination is the reason for 98 per cent of employment gap between males and females in <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>, according to a new report of <keyword id="69945" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="oxfam-india" source="Orion">Oxfam India</keyword>. The report highlighted that woman in India despite their same educational qualification and work experience as men will be discriminated in the labour market due to societal and employers' prejudices. The Oxfam India's 'India Discrimination Report 2022' shows that discrimination causes 100 per cent of employment inequality faced by women in rural areas in labour market and 98 per cent in urban areas. The report said self-employed males earn 2.5 times more than females, 83 per cent of which is attributed to gender-based discrimination and 95 per cent of the gap between the earnings of male and female casual wage workers is due to discrimination. According to the report, gender discrimination is the reason for 98 per cent of the employment gap between males and females. Woman in India despite their same educational qualification and work experience as men will be discriminated in the labour market due to societal and employers' prejudices, it said. The report further said that 93 per cent of the gap in earnings of males and females is due to discrimination. Rural self-employed males earn twice of what females earn in rural areas. Male casual workers earn Rs 3,000 per month more than females, 96 per cent of which is attributed to discrimination, it said. As high as 91.1 per cent of the gap in earnings between males and females is explained by discrimination. The academically recognised statistical model applied in the report is now able to quantify the discrimination women face in the labour market. The lower wages for salaried women are due to 67 per cent of discrimination and 33 per cent due to lack of education and work experience, the report said. Oxfam India called on the government to actively enforce effective measures for the protection and right to equal wages and work for all women. The Government of India should also incentivise the participation of women in workforce, including enhancement in pay, upskilling, job reservations and easy return-to-work options after maternity, the report said. What the report finds is if a man and woman starts on an equal footing, the woman will be discriminated in the economic sphere where she will lag behind in regular/salaried, casual and self-employment, said <keyword id="1594237" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="amitabh-behar" source="Orion">Amitabh Behar</keyword>, CEO of Oxfam India. "The inequality in the labour market for gender and other social categories, the report finds, is not just due to poor access to education or work experience but because of discrimination," he said. These findings are based on the government data on employment and labour from 2004-05 to 2019-20. The Oxfam India report refers to unit level data from 61st round <keyword id="179132" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="national-sample-survey" source="Orion">National Sample Survey</keyword> (NSS) data on employment-unemployment (2004-05), the <keyword id="3429286" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="periodic-labour-force-survey" source="Orion">Periodic Labour Force Survey</keyword> in 2018-19 and 2019-20 and All India Debt and Investment Survey by the government. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/online-education-platform-upgrad-acquires-centum-learning-to-upskill-enterprise-workforce/articleshow/94216993.cms">Online education platform upGrad acquires Centum Learning to upskill enterprise workforce</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/fitch-slashes-indias-fy23-gdp-growth-forecast-to-7-from-7-8-earlier/articleshow/94213633.cms?utm_source=google_newsstand&amp;utm_medium=google_rssfeed&amp;utm_campaign=news_referral">Fitch slashes India's FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7% from 7.8% earlier</a>

Self-employed males earn 2.5 times more than females: Oxfam

<ul><li>A leaked draft report from the <keyword id="159763" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Sample-Survey-Office">National Sample Survey Office</keyword> (NSSO) has found that unemployment in the world’s fastest growing economy is at its highest in 45 years. </li><li>“There is enough evidence to show that employment has increased,” Rajiv Kumar, the vice chairman of <keyword id="2665691" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Niti-Aayog">Niti Aayog</keyword>, a government think tank chaired by the country’s prime minister.</li><li>However, to quash the findings of the report, the government has only been able to offer data on a rise in call centre positions, taxi drivers, construction workers and employees working at startups. </li></ul> India’s Narendra Modi government is facing a moment of truth. A leaked draft report from the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) has found that unemployment in the world’s fastest growing economy is at its highest in 45 years, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/unemployment-in-india-is-at-its-highest-in-45-years-says-an-indian-daily-citing-an-undisclosed-jobs-survey/articleshow/67769020.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">reported</a> <keyword id="189015" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Business-Standard">Business Standard</keyword>. Obviously, the opposition parties wasted no time in using the news to corner the incumbent government. The defense took its time but what they put out is a different story altogether. While the defendants refused to comment on the undisclosed survey, still, a denial was probably in order . “There is enough evidence to show that employment has increased,” Rajiv Kumar, the vice chairman of Niti Aayog, a government think tank chaired by the country’s prime minister. Kumar went on to substantiate it, not with employment numbers, but something he thought was close enough. “That 11-12% (nominal GDP) growth cannot happen if employment hasn’t grown,” Kumar argued. The point did seem to stump the rather combative press, but not for more than a moment. Soon after the CEO, from the same think tank chipped in with more numbers. In the case of Ola, the number of registered drivers went up from 37,000 to near a million in four years, and Uber has over 1.2 million drivers now, Amitabh Kant said. “14 million jobs were created in the transport between 2014 and 2018,” Kant said. A lot of them are delivery boys and truck drivers working for the big e-commerce companies. Kant cited three million jobs created in road construction, 14.6 million jobs in tourism, and another 1.5 million in the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry. “There are 19,000 startups in the country,” Kant roared right after. In India, numbers can be tricky. The website for Startup India, a dedicated government programme, says 15,649 startups recognised till date. 
	
 Then came the Mudra loans, a programme launched in April 2015 has been a big defence for the Modi government. The state offers loans without collateral for people to start micro and small businesses. Loans worth ₹7.43 trillion have been approved under the Mudra scheme to 154 million applicants, 74% of them are women, according to Kant. However, a recent <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/reality-check-how-mudra-missed-its-mark-1441995-2019-01-29">survey</a> India Today published on January 29, showed that many of these small unsecured loans are just waiting to turn sour for various reasons. Far from being a source of livelihood, or a job-creating investment, these loans are at best being used in unproductive ventures. But it remains a fact that the government has facilitated these loans, and may have even arm twisted unwilling bankers to lend more under the Mudra scheme, as found by the same India Today survey. It is a different matter that these loans have failed to produce profit or jobs. So, in 2019 India, it’s great if you have an idea for a startup. If not, there are jobs as drivers for Ola and Uber, vacancies in BPOs, placements in e-commerce deliveries, gigs in road construction and some openings, thanks to tourism. For everyone else, there are Mudra loans, which you may not have to return. The opposition may not have expected this defence from the government after a similar faux pas by none other than the prime minister himself. In an interview in 2018, Modi said, “If someone opens a 'pakoda' shop in front of your office, does that not count at employment? The person's daily earning of Rs 200 will never come into any books or accounts. The truth is massive people are being employed.” His trolls had a field day then. It’s unlikely his critics will miss another opportunity now.

Unless you want to be a street vendor, a cab driver, or a road construction worker, please start your own business -- because there are no high-paying jobs in India

In the last couple of years India has seen a massive surge in the number of women starting business and contributing to the economic wave that the country is seeing. According to the <keyword id="172005" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Sample-Survey-Organisation">National Sample Survey Organisation</keyword>, 14% of business establishments in India are being run by <keyword id="246957" type="POSITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="women-entrepreneur">women entrepreneur</keyword>s. While it’s still a small number, it certainly brings a fresh wind of change where there are many women entrepreneurs starting their own business and building products for the world. The data also reveals that most of the women-run companies are small-scale and about 79% of them are self-financed which clearly indicates the amount of challenges and struggles a women entrepreneur has to face in order to kick start their own company. But there are women, strong women, who are ready to take on any challenge to bust open the glass ceiling and become a creator rather than being just a consumer. <keyword id="6355629" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Google">Google</keyword> has chosen 11 such women entrepreneurs across stages through their <keyword id="4818121" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="google-launchpad-accelerator-program">Google Launchpad Accelerator Program</keyword> to help promising startups in achieving success through focused mentorship from Google and Industry Experts. A look at some of the businesses started by these women show just how important it is for women to build for the society.

These 11 promising startups by women entrepreneurs get Google's attention

New Delhi, Jan 31 () The Economic Survey 2019-20 has sourced certain data from Wikipedia, which is not considered as reliable source of information.
 Besides Wikipedia, the Survey has also relied on data from other private sources such as Bloomberg, ICRA, CMIE, Indian Institute of Management (Bengaluru), Forbes and the BSE.
 Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia, created and edited by volunteers around the world and hosted by the Wikimedia Foundation.
 Other sources from which data have been used include heritage.org, fraserinstitute.org and Ambit Capital.
 Data have also been sourced from International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Ministry of Corporate Affairs, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India, CIBIL, National Sample Survey Office, Department of Consumer Affairs, United Nations, SIDBI.
 The Survey is also marked by quotes from Shrimad Bhagavad Gita, Rig Veda, Adam Smith's 'An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations', Kautilya's Arthashastra, and Tamil saint and philosopher Thiruvalluvar's treatise The Thirukural.
 The Economic Survey advocates 10 new ideas that benefit markets as well as the economy. BKS CS HRS

Economic Survey sources data from Wikipedia, other private entities

New Delhi, Nov 21 () More than 200 economists and academicians have asked the government to release data of all surveys and reports, including results of the Consumer Expenditure Survey 2017-18, completed by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO).
 According to some media reports, the 2017-18 Consumer Expenditure Survey shows a sharp decline in average consumption and the survey results are not being released because they support other evidence that the economy is experiencing a downturn, they said in a statement.
 "It should be noted that consumption surveys are known to give results that diverge from macroeconomic estimates of the National Accounts," they said.
 Also, National Accounts estimates are based not only on administrative data but on a combination of sources including NSSO and other surveys. Several committees have looked into these discrepancies.
 "In the interest of transparency and accountability, all data must be released without delay and irrespective of what the results are.
 "The government may wish to defend itself against interpretations of the statistics that it disagrees with," the statement said.
 But this is best-done through technical papers and seminars. To prevent release of data that are adverse, and diverge from its own understanding, is "neither transparent nor technically sound", it said.
 "We therefore demand that the government should immediately release the report and unit-level data of the 75th Consumer Expenditure Survey. The government should also commit to release all other survey data after the usual processes to check for possible errors have been concluded," they said.
 The economists and academicians who issued the statement, include A Vaidyanathan and Abhijit Sen (former members of erstwhile Planning Commission), Biswajit Dhar (JNU), Dilip Mookherjee (Boston University), Maitreesh Ghatak (LSE), Prabhat Patnaik (Emeritus Professor, JNU), and Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics). NKD CS MR
MR

Over 200 economists, academicians ask govt to release NSSO data, reports

<ul><li>Rao Inderjit Singh admitted that the government is aware of shortcomings in its data collection. </li><li>Singh was responding to a question by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor who said that India is facing a crisis of statistics. </li><li>The government withdrew a survey conducted by National Statistical Office on consumer expenditure. </li></ul> In a rather lively discussion in the Lok Sabha’s winter session of the Parliament today, the minister of state for programme implementation Rao Inderjit Singh admitted to something few thought government would—the accuracy of data it releases. “The government is aware of shortcomings in its data collection,” Singh said<a href="https://www.news18.com/news/india/govt-aware-of-shortcomings-in-data-quality-says-rao-inderjit-singh-2402735.html"> in response to</a> Thiruvanthapuram MP Shashi Tharoor’s question. According to the Congress MP Tharoor, India is facing a crisis of statistics. His comments came after the government decided to withdraw a survey conducted by National Statistical Office on consumer expenditure. The reason why the government chose to sweep the survey under the carpet is understandable. As per the survey, household consumption fell to ₹1,446 in 2017-18 which was at ₹1,501 six years back. Adding the component of inflation, the data shows that Indian homes are getting much frugal in a way that is affecting their quality of life. Show me the data! But this survey came to light only after newspaper Business Standard published the report which was never officially released. Later, the government withdrew the survey, leading Tharoor to question the government's intent and credibility. It has become a common for the Modi government to suppress data as the Prime Minister spends most of his time painting a colourful picture. Earlier this year too, the government had hid another survey by National Sample Survey Office (NSSO). As per the survey, Indian unemployment rate was at 45 year high at 6.1% in 2017-18 and was published by Business Standard in March this year. This periodic labour force (PLF) study was withheld and released after general elections in May. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/nsso-survey-showed-consumer-spending-fell-but-modi-govt-hid-report/articleshow/72064799.cms">Indian government hid another survey that showed fall in consumer spending for the first time in four decades: Report</a>

Rao Inderjit Singh admitted that the government is aware of shortcomings in its data collection

Today's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ism-manufacturing-january-2014-2014-2">ISM manufacturing report</a> was almost unbelievably disappointing. The headline index dropped to 51.3 in January from 56.5 in December. Economists were expecting 56.0.
Many of the companies surveyed by the ISM <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/is-economic-weakness-about-bad-weather-2014-2">blamed poor weather</a>.
But why were economists so far off with their estimates?
For one thing, many of these economists <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/monday-scouting-report-feb-3-2014-2014-2">model their numbers off of the regional surveys</a>.
This brings us to this colorful chart from <a href="https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/430373466957959168/photo/1">Bloomberg LP chief economist Michael McDonough</a>. It includes the progression of the national and various regional manufacturing survey indexes.
McDonough notes that the ISM index - the national index - is the closest to breakeven. This is in contrast to the regional surveys, which are much farther away.
Sure, the methodologies and samples for these surveys may vary. Still, it's weird to see the parts (the colored lines) doing better than the whole (the black line).
<div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image"><a href="https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/430373466957959168/photo/1">@M_McDonough</a></div></div>

Here's The Weird Thing About Today's Ugly ISM Manufacturing Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Lawyers for <keyword id="3828720" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="President-Donald-Trump">President Donald Trump</keyword>'s re-election campaign <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/trump-campaign-cnn-poll/index.html">demanded that CNN retract and apologize for an unfavorable poll</a> released Monday that showed Joe Biden leading Trump by 14 points nationally.</li><li>The poll, <a href="http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/06/08/rel6a.-.race.and.2020.pdf">conducted for CNN by SSRS</a>, surveyed 1,259 registered voters between June 2 and 5. It found that 38% approve of Trump's job performance while 57% disapprove.</li><li>Trump campaign representatives called the survey "a stunt and a phony poll to cause voter suppression," citing a memo from controversial Republican pollster McLaughlin &amp; Associates. </li><li><keyword id="82130" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="CNN">CNN</keyword> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/trump-campaign-cnn-poll/index.html">said they stand by the poll</a> and will not apologize for it or retract it. </li></ul>Lawyers for President Donald Trump's re-election campaign <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/trump-campaign-cnn-poll/index.html">demanded that CNN retract and apologize for an unfavorable poll</a> released Monday that showed former Vice President Joe Biden leading Trump by 14 percentage points nationally. The poll, <a href="http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/06/08/rel6a.-.race.and.2020.pdf">conducted for CNN by SSRS</a>, surveyed 1,259 registered voters by live-caller telephone interviews between June 2 and 5. It found that Trump has an approval rating of 38% and a disapproval rating of 57%, his lowest in over a year. When respondents were asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held that day, 55% said they would vote for Biden and 41% would vote for Trump. Trump, who has frequently railed against <keyword id="43669" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Polling">polling</keyword> he dislikes on Twitter, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1270071785392943105">tweeted on Monday</a> that he felt the CNN poll and other recent surveys "were FAKE based on the incredible enthusiasm we are receiving," and said he retained pollster McLaughlin &amp; Associates to "analyze" the poll. In addition to ordering the review by McLaughlin, which complained about the sampling of the poll respondents and the way some questions were phrased, Trump's campaign further escalated their dissatisfaction with it in a formal cease and desist letter to CNN, the network said on Wednesday. In <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/trump-campaign-cnn-poll/index.html">the letter sent to CNN</a>, Trump campaign representatives called the survey "a stunt and a phony poll to cause voter suppression, stifle momentum and enthusiasm for the President, and present a false view generally of the actual support across America for the President."CNN <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/trump-campaign-cnn-poll/index.html">said they stand by the poll</a> and will not apologize for it or retract it."To my knowledge, this is the first time in its 40 year history that CNN had been threatened with legal action because an American politician or campaign did not like CNN's polling results," <a href="https://twitter.com/CNNPR/status/1270803035544006663">CNN general counsel David Vigilante</a> wrote in response to the Trump campaign. He added: "To the extent we have received legal threats from political leaders in the past, they have typically come from countries like Venezuela or other regimes where there is little or no respect for a free and independent media," calling the threat "legally baseless" and "a bad-faith attempt by the campaign...to muzzle speech." While CNN's poll showed Biden leading Trump by a larger margin than many other surveys, it was still in line with a broader trend of Biden leading Trump outside the margin of error <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/">in many recent national surveys</a> conducted by credible pollsters, including PBS NewsHour/Marist College, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Monmouth University, and Fox News. Nationally, Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points on average in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html">Real Clear Politics'</a> averaged tracker of general election match-up polls. Out of 76 national polls <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html">in Real Clear Politics' tracker</a> conducted in the last six months that included a hypothetical general election match-up between Biden and Trump, Trump has only led Biden in two. The last survey from a major pollster that showed Trump and Biden tied was a Fox News poll conducted in early April, and the most recent survey to show Trump leading Biden was an Emerson College poll conducted between February 16 and 18. The figures CNN's poll reported for Trump's approval rating — 38% approving and 57% disapproving — are also almost exactly in line with Gallup's most recent poll on Trump's approval. <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx">The latest Gallup poll</a>, conducted May 28-June 4, found that 39% approve of Trump's job performance while 57% disapprove. As CNN noted, the "review" the Trump campaign retained McLaughlin to conduct that Trump's lawyers had multiple <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/trump-campaign-cnn-poll/index.html">factual errors and misleading elements itself that misrepresented some aspects of the poll.</a>While McLaughlin complained that the CNN survey used a sample of registered voters and not likely voters, the vast majority of national polls are currently using a registered voter sample, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/politics/trump-campaign-cnn-poll/index.html">since as CNN pointed out</a>, it's difficult to accurately predict who is likely or not to vote five months out from an election.McLaughlin's memo also argued that the survey is a "skewed anti-Trump poll of only 25% Republican" and argued the poll's sample should have been 33% Republican in line with 2016 exit polls.In CNN's sample, 25% of respondents identified as Republican, 32% as Democrats, and 44% as independents. Those figures <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx">are more in line with much more recent data</a> from Gallup showing in an early May survey that showed 28% of Americans identifying as Republican, 37% as independents, and 31% as Democrats.With a grade of C/D, McLaughlin &amp; Associates is one of the lowest-rated pollsters for accuracy <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/">in FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings</a>. As <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/trump-cnn-poll-14-biden-memo-john-mclaughlin.html">New York Magazine</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/08/this-is-trumps-most-spectacularly-wonderfully-terrible-tweet-ever/">the Washington Post</a> noted earlier this week, McLaughlin has a polling record on behalf of their Republican clients that can only be described as spotty at best.Former House Majority Whip Rep. Eric Cantor retained McLaughlin as his pollster during his 2014 re-election campaign in Virginia's 7th congressional district.While McLaughlin's polling <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2014/06/06/cantor-internal-poll-claims-34-point-lead-over-primary-opponent-brat/?arc404=true&amp;itid=lk_inline_manual_10l_10">showed Cantor up by over 30 points</a> throughout the campaign, he ended up losing to a Tea Party-backed primary challenger, Dave Brat, by over 11 percentage points in a stunning upset of one of the country's most influential politicians.After that, the National Republican Campaign Committee warned candidates not to retain McLaughlin's services, but some continued to do so. In the 2018 midterm elections, a McLaughlin &amp; Associates poll <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2018/10/10/neck-and-neck-race-in-virginias-10th-district-comstock-poll-shows/">conducted in early October 2018</a> showed Rep. Barbara Comstock leading challenger Jennifer Wexton by one percentage point, 48% to 47%, in Virginia's 10th congressional district. On the day of the November election, however, Wexton defeated Comstock by 12.5 percentage points. And in Georgia's 7th congressional district in the Atlanta exurbs, a <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-7th-why-rob-woodall-feeling-bullish-about-his-house-race/JWHi2rao2TdAvhmBPRg1QI/">McLaughlin poll also conducted shortly before the election</a> showed Rep. Rob Woodall leading his Democratic challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux by 27 percentage points, 59% to 32%.In the end, Woodall barely won re-election by just 419 votes and less than a one-percentage-point margin, winning 50.07% of the vote to Bourdeaux's 49.9%.

The Trump campaign's lawyers demanded CNN retract and apologize for a poll that showed Trump 14 points behind Biden

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Brennan Linsley and Chris Carlson for AP Photo</div></div></div>Donald Trump's supporters have been looking for signs of hope in the polls. Even with a slight tightening of the race nationally this week, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Republican Trump. That's among the most statistically rigorous surveys, and even more so at the <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-national-polls-show-the-race-tightening-but-state-polls-dont/">state level</a>. Conservative websites, though, have been focusing on less reliable surveys as "shock polls" showing a narrowing race (so much so that the right-leaning <a href="http://thefederalist.com/2016/06/24/no-the-polls-arent-biased-clinton-really-is-leading-trump/">Federalist</a> had to debunk the practice this summer).But to those looking at less savory surveys, remember this: Alf Landon never became president of the United States. This shouldn't be news, but if you had been a loyal subscriber to a magazine called Literary Digest in 1936, it would have seemed a stunning upset. Instead, it became an infamous milestone in the history of election year polling. Today, most polls sample about 1000 people. We know now that if statisticians choose a group that size with demographics and characteristics that match the larger population, they can get a rather accurate view of what people think at that moment in time. But back then, Literary Digest conducted its poll very differently. It sent surveys to 10 million people. And of those, 2.4 million responded. It may be one of the biggest polls in history. And it was dead wrong. <div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Library of CongressAlf Landon. Not president.</div></div></div>The magazine predicted Republican candidate Landon would handily defeat the incumbent Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt: <ul><li>Landon: 57%</li><li>Roosevelt: 43%</li></ul>This is how the election actually turned out that November. <ul><li>Roosevelt: 62%</li><li>Landon: 38%</li></ul>What went wrong? It had two major flaws: <ol><li>The 10 million people it polled did not look like the population as a whole. This was the Great Depression, but Literary Digest sent surveys to its subscribers, and Americans who owned telephones and cars. Those people tended to be wealthier, and more Republican, giving Landon a false edge. Stats nerds call this "selection bias." </li><li>Less than one quarter of the sample responded. People who take the time to respond to a questionnaire may be different than those who throw them in the trash. This is called "non-response bias," and it's why pollsters today work hard to combat it. </li></ol>It was around this time that another pollster was trying a different way to survey the public. George Gallup was getting far more accurate results using <a href="http://www.pbs.org/fmc/segments/progseg7.htm">smaller samples</a>. Initially, the public was skeptical. But he called the race correctly with a sample of thousands rather than millions. A small sample with the right people is always better than a huge sample that's skewed. Literary Digest didn't fare as well. It folded a year after Roosevelt took the oath of office again in 1937. What was left of it was <a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,882981,00.html">absorbed</a> by Time magazine. <a href="http://www.gallup.com/">Gallup</a>, however, is still going. Read more about <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-poll-margin-of-error-and-how-can-it-be-wrong-2016-8">what can go wrong with polls</a>:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-poll-margin-of-error-and-how-can-it-be-wrong-2016-8"></a>.</div></div></div> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/realdonaldtrump-data-suggests-donald-trump-tweets-difference-android-iphone-twitter-2016-8">DATA SCIENTIST: There's an easy way to tell if one of Trump's tweets came from him or his campaign</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="kzODNkNTE6ni3UoJzoQnrnRMmSJQftwC" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

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