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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's tariff threats may boost Chinese exports as importers rush to beat tariffs.</li><li>Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to increased global manufacturing activity temporarily.</li></ul>US President-elect Donald Trump may be good for China's export business — at least temporarily.Trump, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">won</a> the presidential election, has pledged to impose sweeping tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports to the US. He has threatened a 60% tariff on imports from China.His tariff threats are causing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">jitters</a> around the world. With Trump set to take office on January 20, factories globally may be working overtime to ship out as much as they can before any potential tariffs kick in, economists say."There could be real front-loading of activity ahead of the enacting of tariffs," said Joe Lupton, a senior global economist at JPMorgan, on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/scx/-miq4i59/b3efe732-ef66-49ae-ad3d-5390f5279831/KAL-1-87CAN94L">podcast</a> over the weekend."Just as businesses try to get ahead of that, you could actually see a little bit of pop in global manufacturing, China manufacturing, as we head into the first quarter," he added.The demand for imports, including those from China, could also come from the US itself."Trump's return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as US importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs," wrote Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note.Some of the front-loading may already be taking place.Exports from China grew 12.7% in October from a year ago — their fastest pace in two years and far higher than their 2.4% rise in September, according to official data. Several major ports in China faced delays in September due to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://worldwidelogisticsltd.com/2024/09/18/6908/">major typhoon</a> and the backlog spilled in October.<h2 id="194ec862-e0b6-4683-b8c7-95de349dd1e3">Exports could dip with focus on trade deficits</h2>Any a temporary boost in trade would just be that: temporary.Asian export growth could still dip into the negative zone in the second half of next year amid Trump's focus on reducing US bilateral trade deficits, wrote economists at Nomura in a Friday note.Six of the top 10 countries that run deficits with the US are Asian countries, including China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and India."Higher US tariffs on Chinese exports could re-direct those exports into Asia, hurting local production," wrote the Nomura economists."More tit-for-tat trade retaliation, trade policy uncertainty and delayed policy easing in some Asian economies will also likely spill into domestic demand," they added.

Global manufacturing is poised for a temporary boom ahead of possible Trump tariffs, economists say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Morgan Stanley estimated that bringing manufacturing back to the US could add $10 trillion to the economy.</li><li>The bank pointed to a 20-year stagnation of the industrial economy as production was sent offshore.</li></ul>The US economy could unlock trillions in value over the next decade if more manufacturing activity comes back to the US, according to Morgan Stanley.After decades of production activity being sent abroad, domestic manufacturing is starting to come back to the US, the bank said, a phenomenon known as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reshoring-trade-investors-safe-haven-bet-regardless-of-election-winner-2024-8">reshoring</a>. If domestic production continues to scale, the economy could gain as much as $10 trillion in value over the next decade, according to Chris Snyder, a US multi-industry analyst at the bank."After decades of offshoring and relying on international supply chains, the pendulum is swinging back toward domestic production," Snyder said in a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-supply-chain?cid=SM_CORP_YOUTUBE_Morgan+Stanley_20241028&amp;linkId=636499587">episode</a> for Morgan Stanley's "Thoughts on the Market" podcast. "In fact, we believe the US is entering the early innings of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-reindustrializing-how-to-invest-manufacturing-cyclical-quality-2024-7">re-industrialization</a> — a multi-decade opportunity that we size at $10 trillion and think has the potential to restore growth to the US industrial economy following more than 20 years of stagnation," he added.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/september/">manufacturing sector continued to contract</a> in September, with activity declining for the 22nd month out of the last 23, per the Institute of Supply Management.Still, the sector is showing signs that the US is backing backing away from offshore production. The US's international trade deficit for goods and services declined to $70.4 billion in August, down $8.5 billion from the prior month, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-august-2024">Commerce Department</a>.The Biden administration, meanwhile, has poured billions into its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-semiconductor-chip-production-continue-harris-trump-presidency-arizona-jobs-2024-10">push to increase chip production</a> in the US and boost<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-to-sign-executive-order-to-boost-us-manufacturing-2021-1"> the manufacturing</a> and industrial sectors. As of February of this year, annual investment in new manufacturing facilities hit a record $225 billion, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2024/4/fact-sheet-the-manufacturing-renaissance-that-will-drive-the-economy-of-the-future">memo</a> from the Senate Joint Economic Committee.Shifting production back to the US is expected to be helped along by new technology, like artificial intelligence and more advanced robotics and automation, Snyder said. That could be a boon for "high-tech" sectors in the US, he later added, pointing to the semiconductor, pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing systems industries.Traditional industrial firms — like those in the auto and aerospace sectors — and companies that invest in more sustainable manufacturing are also expected to benefit from the reshoring shift, he added."All told, these businesses should see shorter supply chains, reduced legal and tariff costs, and a more resilient operational structure."The cumulative effects could be "pretty profound" across the US economy, Snyder said, with the boost to industry and manufacturing bound to raise GDP. Reshoring could also potentially undo the US's trade deficit with other economies, Snyder said."The US — with its robust tech sector and innovation ecosystem — is uniquely positioned to leverage technology to revitalize its manufacturing base," he added.

Bringing manufacturing back to the US is a $10 trillion opportunity for the economy, Morgan Stanley says

French sports retailer <keyword id="19948511" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Decathlon" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Decathlon" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Decathlon">Decathlon</keyword> on Wednesday said it will <keyword id="19954634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="invest" source="keywords">invest</keyword> 100 million euros (around Rs 933 crore) in <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>, its one of the fastest growing markets, in the next five years to expand <keyword id="19992513" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail" source="keywords">retail</keyword> footprint and <keyword id="19914449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manufacturing" source="keywords">manufacturing</keyword> operations. The company expects its business to become double in next three to five years, said Decathlon India CEO Sankar Chaterjee. The company plans to have a network of 190 stores, having presence in over 90 cities in next 5 years as part of its expansion, he added. Besides, a handful of this would also be spent on enhancing the digital channel as per the omni-channel approach of the company. Decathlon will expand its manufacturing operations and increase sourcing from india for the local market and its global operations. Currently 68 per cent of the goods sold in India are locally produced. Besides, 8 per cent of Decathlon's global product range are also met through India manufacturing. "We are aiming to take the domestic manufacturing for Decathlon India to 85 per cent by 2026," Chaterjee said. Decathlon plans to add 10-15 new stores every year, accelerating online sales and increasing local sourcing as part of expansion. Decathlon Global Chief Retail and Countries Officer Steve Dykes said India now plays an important role for the company. "India is a unique and exciting market with numerous opportunities. We have commitments to accelerate our efforts in india to make societal impact to inspire more and more Indians to play," he said. Dykes further said Decathlon will explore new sales channels as B2B to increase its impact. "We have a potential for India to play more and more and their role in Decathlon research and design and processes, over 2 million people are engaged globally in sports activity with a Decathlon clay app, and we have a big commitment in developing a future talent that comes from India, he said. In March Decathhlon had said India is a "big priority" market and expects it to be among its top five global markets within five years. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-gained-over-3-million-subscribers-in-june-vi-lost-nearly-a-million/articleshow/112670406.cms">Reliance Jio and Airtel gained over 3 million subscribers in June, Vi lost nearly a million</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/the-iphone-pro-models-will-be-made-in-india-for-the-first-time-this-year/articleshow/112653019.cms">The iPhone Pro models will be made in India for the first time this year</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/orient-technologies-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112646237.cms">Orient Technologies IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a>

Decathlon to invest 100 million euros in India in next 5 years to expand retail, manufacturing

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US indexes fell steeply Tuesday as weak manufacturing data prompted fresh fears about the economy. </li><li>The ISM Manufacturing index failed to meet expectations, and investors are now awaiting August jobs data. </li></ul>Stocks plunged Tuesday as manufacturing data chipped at confidence in the US economy.The <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> shed 2% and 1.5%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled over 3%, as a sharp drop in <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a> compounded the index's decline.Tuesday's fallout marks the worst day for stocks since the market meltdown in early August and offered a grim introduction to September, which is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-september-season-fed-cuts-election-investing-2024-8?mrfhud=true">historically a bad month for the stock market</a>. A weak manufacturing print intensified pressure on Tuesday's sell-off, as the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index failed to meet expectations. The index rose 47.2% in August, under 47.9% consensus forecasts."Manufacturing employment shrank for the third consecutive month as manufacturing activity slowed in recent months. Although the manufacturing sector holds a smaller portion of the macro economy now than in previous cycles, investors should still position themselves for a broader slowdown throughout the balance of this year," LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said.As wavering manufacturing activity amplifies fears that the US may be facing a cooldown, investors have more reason to hope for a strong payrolls report on Friday.All eyes are on this jobs print, and any surprise in the labor data could make or break the soft landing narrative.Currently, economists anticipated that the US added 162,000 jobs last month, which suggests that the unemployment rate will edge down modestly from 4.3% to 4.2%.If forecasts are correct, the Federal Reserve should be able to cut interest rates by a gradual quarter point in its upcoming September meeting. But a weaker-than-expected payrolls print would prompt the bank to slash rates by more than the market is currently pricing in.Non-equity assets also suffered on Tuesday. While oil prices tumbled, the 10-year Treasury yield shed six points to 3.846%. Investors may need to brace for more volatility ahead, as September is famously a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-september-season-fed-cuts-election-investing-2024-8?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">challenging month for stocks</a>.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,528.93, down 2.12%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,936.93, down 1.51% (-626.15 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,136.30, down 3.26%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-prediction-nvda-sell-stock-market-inflation-rates-outlook-2024-9">Nvidia is flashing a sell signal,</a> veteran strategist Bill Blain warns.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-selloff-outlook-election-rate-cuts-jobs-tom-lee-2024-9">Stocks are set to drop as much as 10% in the next 8 weeks</a>, Fundstrat's Tom Lee warns.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-outlook-buy-continued-rally-next-year-2025-goldman-2024-9">3 reasons to buy up gold ahead of a 2025 rally</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interestrate-cuts-stock-market-bull-run-upside-outlook-jpmorgan-2024-9">Investors might be overestimating how far stocks will reach when the Fed cuts rates</a>, JPMorgan says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-prediction-yen-carry-trade-bank-of-japan-rates-2024-9">Last month's stock market turmoil could repeat once rates rise in Japan</a>, Societe Generale says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil shed 4.38% to $70.33 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, plummeted 4.86% to $73.75 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> stayed essentially flat at $2,523.1 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped six points to 3.846%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> shed 0.66% to $58,077.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Nasdaq drops 3% as weak manufacturing data renews US growth fears

Ahead of the union <keyword id="19936553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget" source="keywords">budget</keyword> 2024, which is set to be presented on the 22nd July, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman kicked off pre-budget consultations on 19th June. In their pre-budget memorandum to the <keyword id="19900485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="finance-ministry" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="finance ministry" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="finance ministry">finance ministry</keyword>, the <keyword id="20366533" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PHD-Chamber-of-Commerce-and-Industry" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry">PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry</keyword> proposed 10 reforms it deemed essential for <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>’s journey towards <keyword id="19916816" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Viksit-Bharat" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Viksit Bharat" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Viksit Bharat">Viksit Bharat</keyword>. Amongst the proposals submitted were introducing reforms to enhance the share of the manufacturing sector in India’s <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword> to 25% by 2030, and the expansion of the <keyword id="19981334" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PLI-scheme" source="keywords">PLI scheme</keyword> beyond its existing scope of 14 sectors. In addition to this, <keyword id="20366532" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="PHDCCI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="PHDCCI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="PHDCCI">PHDCCI</keyword> also emphasised on rationalising direct taxes for the middle class, infrastructure enhancement and smart village development, with special focus on tier-2 and 3 cities. As per Sanjeev Agrawal, President, PHDCCI, “In order to strengthen the share of the manufacturing sector in the country's GDP, we recommend the status quo on the corporate tax rate at 22% for existing companies and 15% for new manufacturing companies incorporated after October 1, 2019. The middle class must be spared from the 30% tax rate and this rate must be applicable only to those with taxable income above Rs. 40 lakh, this will support consumption demand in this country”. In addition to this, PHDCCI also emphasised on strengthening linkages between universities and industries for bettering research and development activities in the country, and also appealed for reducing cost of doing business. Here’s a snapshot of some prominent demands placed forth by the PHDCCI ahead of the budget : <ol><li>Change in NPA classification limit from the present 90 days to 180 days</li><li>Fostering AI education, skill development and competitiveness in the service sector</li><li>Increase agricultural exports to US$100 billion in the next 3 years via increased public investments in infrastructure,</li><li>Ensure the presence of schools within a radius of 1 km, colleges within a 10 km radius and universities within a 25 km radius in the next five years.</li><li>Make health centres available within the radius of 1 km and hospitals within the radius of 10 km.</li><li>Propose a Voluntary Disclosure Scheme (VDS) for legal cases older than 10 years, offering settlement opportunities at a nominal 15% penalty. </li></ol>

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Global manufacturing is poised for a temporary boom ahead of possible Trump tariffs, economists say

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Stock market today: Nasdaq drops 3% as weak manufacturing data renews US growth fears

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