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<ul><li>The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> will conclude the three-day <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (<keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MPC" source="keywords">MPC</keyword>) meeting today.</li><li>The central bank is expected to announce its decision on policy rates.</li><li>The <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> has maintained the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> at 6.50% for the past nine meetings.</li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to conclude the three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today, with Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> expected to announce the central bank's decision on policy rates. The meeting, which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbis-monetary-policy-committee-meeting-begins-today-announcement-on-october-9/articleshow/113999887.cms">began</a> on October 7, has garnered significant attention, as the RBI has maintained the repo rate at 6.50% for the past nine meetings. The repo rate has remained steady since the RBI adopted a cautious stance to balance inflation control and <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. Key factors that the MPC is weighing include persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices, as well as global economic uncertainties. According to data from the Ministry of Statistics &amp; Programme Implementation, while All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation moderated to 3.65% in August--within the RBI's target band of 2-6%. <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">Food inflation</keyword> remains elevated at 5.65%, above the central bank's medium-term target of 4%. This, coupled with rising global crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia, has intensified concerns over inflation. Despite these challenges, the RBI has so far opted for a status quo on the repo rate, aiming to foster economic recovery after the pandemic. However, today's announcement will be closely watched to see if the central bank shifts its stance, especially given the external pressures and uncertainties surrounding global markets. Economists, however, have noted that the RBI will not make any changes in its policy stance before December. "With the focus on taming headline inflation, the RBI is likely to hold the rates although the core inflation is within the limit. It is possible the RBI may shift to the neutral stand" said M Govind Rao, Member, of the Fourteenth Finance Commission and former Director, of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. On September 18, the US Federal Reserve announced a steep 50 basis points interest cut in its review meeting. US Fed announced the rate cuts after holding interest rates steady for eight straight meetings. "In this overarching macroeconomic setting of heightened geopolitical tensions, core inflation inching upwards, oil price volatility, and high food inflation, we anticipate a change in the RBI's policy stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral" at its forthcoming MPC meeting on October 9, 2024. However, we do not see any rate action coming and the benchmark interest rates may not undergo any change" said Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings. Earlier this month the central government appointed three new members to the monetary policy committee. The MPC comprises three members from the RBI and three external members appointed by the Central Government. With inputs from ANI. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/byd-emax-7-electric-mpv-launched-in-india-starting-at-26-9-lakh/slidelist/114046121.cms">BYD eMax 7 electric MPV launched in India starting at ₹26.9 lakh</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/heres-how-a-reddit-user-was-able-to-get-an-iphone-16-at-under-27000/articleshow/114035179.cms">Here’s how a Reddit user was able to get an iPhone 16 at under ₹27,000</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/hyundai-swiggy-ather-upcoming-large-ipos-in-india/slidelist/114014140.cms">Hyundai To Swiggy: Everyone wants to cash in on the IPO bonanza</a>

RBI MPC announcement today: Rates unlikely to change, RBI may change stance to neutral

As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

The domestic <keyword id="17386539" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commercial-vehicle-industry-volumes" source="Orion">commercial vehicle industry volumes</keyword> are expected to grow by 7-10 per cent in FY2024, supported by replacement demand, pick-up in mining, infrastructure construction activities and overall healthy fleet utilisation levels, rating firm Icra said on Thursday. This is despite the 5 per cent year-on-year and 41 per cent sequential contraction in volumes in April 2023, it noted. The growth in FY2024 would follow a year of healthy demand in FY2023, wherein the industry volumes expanded by more than 33 per cent, supported by a favourable base, as well as a healthy pick-up in macroeconomic activity, Icra said. The scrappage policy, which was announced in March 2021, has been implemented from April 1, 2023, and is likely to contribute to the growth of new commercial vehicle sales, it added. "The major impact of the scrappage policy is expected in the CV (Commercial Vehicle) segment, especially passenger carriers, as the usage of other vehicles such as two-wheelers, passenger vehicles, etc. beyond 15 years would be limited," Icra Corporate Ratings Vice President &amp; Co Group Head Kinjal Shah stated. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/inflows-into-equity-mutual-funds-hit-a-4-month-low-in-april-amfi/articleshow/100162128.cms">Inflows into equity mutual funds hit a 4-month low in April: AMFI</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/sajjan-jindal-led-jsw-infra-would-be-the-third-group-company-to-go-public/slidelist/100156198.cms">JSW Infrastructure to come out with ₹2,800 crore IPO; third group company to go public</a>

Domestic commercial vehicle industry volumes expected to grow by 7-10 pc in FY24: Icra

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Overall <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> soared 8.5% in the year through March, but other data hint at more encouraging trends.</li><li>Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, slowed its monthly growth from February to March.</li></ul>The March <keyword id="12095644" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation-report" source="Orion">inflation report</keyword> offered the bleakest indication yet that soaring prices are hammering Americans' finances. It also revealed new signs that the problem might've peaked.Data published Tuesday morning showed inflation running at <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-march-price-growth-report-gas-food-costs-climbing-2022-4">an extraordinary year-over-year pace of 8.5% in March</a>, marking the fastest rate since December 1981 and a hefty acceleration from the 7.9% pace seen the month prior. The Russia-Ukraine conflict powered much of the uptick as the war and related sanctions drove prices for food and energy sharply higher.The <keyword id="11916720" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="consumer-price-index" source="Orion">Consumer Price Index</keyword> also notched a 1.2% month-over-month gain through March alone, similarly picking up from the February pace and reflecting the largest one-month gain since 2005.The data underscores the financial pain Americans continue to face as the rest of the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> swiftly rebounds. While the country is recovering jobs at breakneck speed, people are spending an average 10% more on groceries and 48% more on gas than they were just one year ago.Yet looking closer at the March <keyword id="11995266" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="cpi" source="Orion">CPI</keyword> report reveals some signs that inflation pressures are easing. The core CPI measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices to instead focus on goods and services that tend to have fewer wild swings from month to month, gave the clearest signal.The gauge rose 6.5% year-over-year in March and 0.3% through March alone, both prints landing below economist forecasts. The month-over-month reading also slowed from February's 0.5% gain, marking a second straight deceleration and bringing core inflation closer to the pace seen before the pandemic.Core CPI is often regarded as a better measure of long-term inflation trends, as it isn't swayed by sudden and temporary changes in food and energy costs. While the latest data could point to lower inflation down the road, future reports will be key to determining whether the cooldown is a one-off or a new trend, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a Tuesday note."This report is encouraging, at the margin, though it is far too soon to be sure that the next few core prints will be as low," he added.Other parts of the CPI report suggest overall inflation is at least slowing its roll. Owners-equivalent rent, which tracks changes in housing costs for homeowners, rose by 0.4% in March, echoing February's gain and holding at fairly reserved levels. The segment is viewed as a key indicator for whether inflation is moving permanently higher, and the lack of such a sharp upward trend suggests price growth can still cool somewhat quickly.Used car and truck prices, meanwhile, fell 3.8% between February and March, marking the largest one-month drop since 1969. The category was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/used-car-prices-inflation-gas-shortage-stockpiling-drivers-slammed-reopening-2021-5">one of the biggest drivers of overall inflation</a> last year, even counting for a third of overall price growth in some months. Should the coming months see similar declines, that will remove a major source of inflation from the headline CPI measure.And while it didn't show up in the March print, oil prices have already fallen from last month's peak, and gas prices have pulled back from record highs.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> — the US's oil-price benchmark — has fallen nearly 23% since hitting its early-March high, with much of the decline spurred by President Joe Biden's announcement of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-oil-release-lower-gas-prices-stockpile-russia-ukraine-inflation-2022-3">a massive oil release from the US's reserves</a>. Prices remain elevated, but the trend seen through April is all but guaranteed to lead to a weaker month-over-month reading for energy prices in the next inflation report.The country is still far from putting the inflation problem behind it. But while headline inflation gauges point to intensifying pain throughout the economy, other factors suggest the worst could soon be behind the US.

Inflation hit a 41-year high in March, but there are signs price hikes could slow down soon

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> added 467,000 jobs in January, vastly above the median forecast for 150,000 new payrolls.</li><li>The <keyword id="12272445" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment-rate" source="Orion">unemployment rate</keyword> rose to 4%, landing above the median forecast of 3.9%.</li></ul>Hiring unexpectedly accelerated in January as the Omicron variant reached its peak in the US.The US economy added 467,000 <keyword id="12016998" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="nonfarm-payrolls" source="Orion">nonfarm payrolls</keyword> last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday morning. That vastly exceeded the median estimate of 150,000 new jobs from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.November's job gains were revised a second time to 647,000 jobs from 249,000, according to the report. December's preliminary print was updated to 510,000 from 199,000. The dual revisions signal hiring fared far better in the final months of 2021 than the initial data suggested.The unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.9%. That landed above the median forecast of 3.9%, but the increase was largely driven by more Americans coming off the sidelines and looking for work.The Friday report is the first to catalog the Omicron wave's full effects on the <keyword id="12002872" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="labor-market" source="Orion">labor market</keyword>'s recovery. The report's survey period ended just after daily case counts peaked on January 10 at more than 1.4 million. By comparison, December's preliminary reading only tracked job creation through the start of the wave, when daily infections averaged roughly 120,000.Revisions included in the Friday report reveal the elevated case counts did little to dent hiring. The data show a booming recovery through the first month of the new year and hint the economy is far more resilient to the virus than before."These data make it clear that the labor market ahead of Omicron was much stronger than previously believed, and it's very tempting to argue that the Jan data mean that all danger of an Omicron hit has passed," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a Friday note.The labor force participation rate rose to 62.2% from 61.9%, marking a healthy improvement after months of little change. The measure has taken on new importance during the recovery as millions of Americans sit on the labor market's sidelines. Participation had been slow to recover, leaving employers struggling to hire as the worker supply remains strained. Yet the uptick in January suggests more people sought work even amid the Omicron wave. The improvement is also behind the gain in the unemployment rate, as an increase in job searchers will lift the overall number of unemployed Americans.The number of jobless adults was little changed at 6.5 million through January. The US still has roughly 2.9 million jobs to create before returning to its pre-crisis count. Even when those payrolls are recovered, total jobs will still only be at their February 2020 levels. It will likely take several more months to recoup the job growth lost during the pandemic.The average hourly wage rose by $0.23, or 0.7%, to $31.63 in January, according to the report. That exceeded the median forecast for a 0.5% jump. The print shows wage growth continuing to outpace its historical average as the labor shortage entered the new year. The phenomenon has forced businesses to issue larger raises to more efficiently attract workers. The pay bumps have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wage-growth-double-edged-sword-worsen-inflation-senator-kennedy-economy-2022-1">raised some concerns around higher inflation</a>, but <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/productivity-q4-worker-output-economic-growth-recovery-labor-market-data-2022-2">healthy productivity growth through the fourth quarter</a> suggests the country is far from facing a wage-price spiral.<h2>Where hiring surged most through Omicron</h2>The usual suspects led the hiring boom through January. Leisure and hospitality businesses once again saw the biggest jump in hiring, with firms adding 151,000 payrolls. The sector has led the hiring recovery throughout the pandemic, largely due to such businesses losing the most jobs through early lockdowns. Previous virus waves slowed leisure and hospitality hiring as infection fears kept people from seeking work. The Friday report hints vaccination and the Omicron variant's reduced severity helped such in-person businesses continue hiring despite the virus surge.Professional and business services followed with a gain of 86,000 jobs. Retailers added 61,400 jobs through January, and transportation and warehousing firms created 54,200 payrolls.Construction businesses were the only ones to shed jobs last month, with the sector posting a decline of 5,000 jobs, according to the report.

The hiring recovery unexpectedly surged in January with 467,000 jobs added as the Omicron wave peaked

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Spending at US retailers and restaurants unexpectedly rose in August to $618.7 billion, the Census Bureau said.</li><li>The 0.7% jump trounced the average economist estimate of a 0.8% decline.</li><li>The spending surge came amid soaring Delta cases, the renewal of some restrictions, and weak hiring.</li></ul>Spending at US retailers unexpectedly rebounded in August despite soaring COVID cases and the reinstatement of some economic restrictions.<keyword id="11931579" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="retail-sales" source="Orion">Retail sales</keyword> gained 0.7% last month to $618.7 billion, the Census Bureau announced Thursday morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected sales to drop by 0.8% through the month.The print offsets some of the decline seen in July. That month's sales were revised to $614.3 billion from $617.7 billion.While sales are still well below their April peak of $629 billion, they remain above trend and significantly higher than pre-COVID levels. <keyword id="11921386" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="consumer-spending" source="Orion">Consumer spending</keyword> counts for roughly 70% of economic activity, and during a recession characterized by lockdowns and business restrictions, a resumption of typical spending activity is critical to reviving the broader <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword>."Consumers have continued to spend robustly even after the stimulus sugar-high has worn off," Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, said. "That's a good sign for the economy. Rising COVID cases did not seem to have much of an effect on <keyword id="11893588" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="retail" source="Orion">retail</keyword> sales in August."Spending soared the most at nonstore retailers - which include e-commerce websites and pop-up stands - as such businesses enjoyed a 5.3% gain. Furniture stores saw a 3.7% jump in sales and merchandise retailers followed with a 3.5% increase.Other sectors continued to see sales slide through the virus resurgence. Spending at electronics and appliance stores slid 3.1% in August, while sales at vehicle dealers and parts stores dropped 3.6%. Sales were flat in restaurants and bars, suggesting the renewal of some mask-wearing rules did little to dent Americans' return to dining out.<h2>Tracking the not-so-fragile recovery</h2>The Thursday sales data offers a more promising view of the US rebound than several bleaker developments recently.For one, it shows spending on the rise despite a sharp slowing in the labor market's recovery. The US economy <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-august-235000-payrolls-unemployment-rate-labor-market-recovery-2021-9">added just 235,000 jobs in August</a>, less than a third of the growth expected and the smallest monthly increase since January. It also marked a significant deceleration from job growth in the month prior, when the country added 1.1 million payrolls.Measures of Americans' confidence were similarly harsh last month. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/university-michigan-sentiment-delta-fear-lockdown-cases-rising-july-report-2021-8">plummeted to 70.3 in August</a>, its lowest level since 2011 and the largest one-month drop since the start of the pandemic.The latest retail sales data reflects that, despite soured confidence in the recovery, Americans still went out and spent, although obstacles remain in the way of sustained sales growth. For one, virus cases have only climbed higher in September, and while economic restrictions haven't changed, daily case counts now surpass those seen during the dire winter wave.Supply-chain issues also risk hobbling the recovery. Holiday season spending could bring a healthy boost to economic activity, but shortages and shipping bottlenecks could limit just how much supply can meet Americans' massive demand. Early signs are encouraging, and the August report signals businesses can bet on people still wanting to spend, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said."Inventory now appears to have stabilized so sales likely won't keep falling at their recent pace, but we can't be sure August marks the bottom," he said. "Upside surprises on this scale don't come often, and this one indicates a real degree of resilience on the part of consumers."

Americans kept spending amid the August Delta wave as retail sales unexpectedly rose to $619 billion

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Spending at retailers and restaurants fell 1.1% in July to $617.7 billion, the Census Bureau said Tuesday.</li><li>Economists expected sales to fall 0.2%. The drop suggests rising COVID cases slowed the US recovery.</li><li><keyword id="110880" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Consumer-spending">Consumer spending</keyword> counts for 70% of economic activity, making <keyword id="87998" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Retail-sales">retail sales</keyword> a key measure of the rebound's pace.</li></ul>Americans' spending fell more than expected in July, suggesting the latest rebound in COVID cases could hamper the US economic recovery.<keyword id="6354851" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="retail">Retail</keyword> sales fell 1.1% to $617.7 billion last month, the <a href="https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf">Census Bureau</a> announced Tuesday morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected sales to fall 0.2% to roughly $620 billion. The reading marked the second decline in three months and dragged sales further from April's record high of $629 billion.June sales were revised to $624.7 billion from an initial print of $621 billion, suggesting somewhat more strength in retail during the summer than July's headline miss would suggest.Spending at auto dealers and parts vendors fell 3.9% through the month. Sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores slid 2.6%, and spending at restaurants and bars rose 1.7% last month.Consumer spending counts for roughly 70% of economic activity in the US, making retail sales a key measure for the recovery's strength. Sales rebounded strongly from their early pandemic crash through spring 2020 as stimulus checks included in the CARES Act drove spending higher. Direct payments included in the two following aid packages similarly boosted spending, and sales hit a record high in April 2021 as the country began reopening.Spending has since dipped as overwhelming demand butts heads with supply bottlenecks. Shortages of products ranging from semiconductors to lumber cut into businesses' ability to service Americans' spending spree. The imbalance also helped inflation climb to its highest level since 2008, though the latest reading suggests <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cpi-inflation-july-price-growth-index-economic-data-supply-shortages-2021-8">price growth possibly peaked in June</a>.<h2>Recovery slowing down</h2>The Tuesday sales report joins other indicators suggesting <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economic-recovery-hit-peak-delta-variant-cases-economic-data-2021-8">the US recovery is sputtering out</a>. Data out Friday showed Americans bracing for a dire wave of Delta cases and more economic fallout. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/university-michigan-sentiment-delta-fear-lockdown-cases-rising-july-report-2021-8">fell to 70.1 in early August</a> from 81.2, hitting the lowest level since 2011 and marking the largest one-month decline since virus lockdowns began in April 2020.The slide shows "a stunning lack of confidence" and was likely powered by an emotional response to soaring cases, Richard Curtin, chief economist at the university's Surveys of Consumers, said. Dashed hopes that vaccines would quickly counter the pandemic turned into negative outlooks for personal finances, the country's future, and unemployment, he added.In labor-market data, filings for unemployment benefits have mostly flatlined after months of steady decline, suggesting Americans are staying on the sidelines while <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jolts-july-job-openings-labor-market-worker-shortage-hiring-data-2021-8">job openings sit at record highs</a>. Initial jobless claims <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/weekly-jobless-claims-375000-labor-market-recovery-unemployment-benefits-hiring-2021-8">fell slightly to 375,000</a> in the first week of August, matching forecasts but still landing above the pandemic-era low.Still, some experts aren't all worried just yet. It's too early to determine whether the recovery is on the ropes, and other factors certainly played a role in July's weaker spending, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said."It's impossible to separate the impact of the fading stimulus boost from the possible hit due to the Delta variant, which began to hit real-time indicators like restaurant diner and airline passenger numbers in late July," he said. "A Q4 rebound is a decent bet, though, assuming the Delta surge is over by then."

Americans' spending at retailers slid to $618 billion in July, missing economist forecasts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global stocks slipped Friday ahead of key <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> data out of the US, which could influence the Fed.</li><li>Economists expect inflation to have flatlined at 8.3%, but a surge in <keyword id="11994710" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gas-prices" source="Orion">gas prices</keyword> means there's some uncertainty.</li></ul>US stock futures trod water Friday, and European and Asian equities fell, as traders waited for crucial <keyword id="12092822" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="us-inflation" source="Orion">US inflation</keyword> data that will show whether prices in the world's biggest economy are finally cooling.Futures on the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500</a> were broadly flat, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones futures</a> were down 0.09%, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> were up 0.3% as of 5.25 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/msci-world?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">MSCI All-World</a> index of global equities fell 0.45%.The cautious trading in Wall Street futures follows a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-dow-sinks-600-may-inflation-report-2022-6">sharp drop in major US stock indices</a> Thursday, which saw the <keyword id="11898248" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sp-500" source="Orion">S&amp;P 500</keyword> shed 2.38%. Investors were reacting to the European Central Bank's announcement it will finally hike interest rates, and were bracing for Friday's inflation data.The latest consumer price index inflation print for May is due at 8.30 a.m. ET Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the headline year-on-year figure to hold steady <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-april-gas-food-energy-price-growth-russia-ukraine-2022-5">from April</a> at 8.3% — still a red-hot pace, but down from March's 41-year high reading of 8.5%. On a month-on-month basis, CPI is expected to hit 0.7%, from 0.3% a month earlier.Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to fall 0.3 percentage points to 5.9% year-on-year. Month-on-month, core <keyword id="12092821" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="cpi-inflation" source="Orion">CPI inflation</keyword> is seen as cooling to 0.5% from 0.6%.However, the recent surge in prices of crude oil and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gas-prices-new-record-states-pay-over-5-dollars-gallon-2022-5">US gas</a> has analysts worried the headline number could come in higher than predicted.If it does top expectations, that could spook already-nervous <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>, as it could force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates harder to get a grip on price rises."The headline month-to-month May CPI print today will look awful, thanks to the latest surge in gasoline prices, and, probably, continued upward pressure on grocery store food prices," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note."The core, however, probably will be more encouraging," he added.European stocks dropped Friday after the sell-off on Wall Street and as investors awaited the inflation data, with the continent-wide <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/stoxx_europe_600">Stoxx 600</a> down 1.3% in morning trading. The step lower comes after <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/european-central-bank-interest-rates-inflation-monetary-policy-hikes-lagarde-2022-6">the ECB pledged</a> to hike interest rates at its next meeting.Asian stocks broadly fell overnight, with Japan's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225">Nikkei 225</a> finishing 1.49% in the red, but China's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300</a> rising 1.52%.US bond yields, which move inversely to prices, slipped Friday after a relatively sharp climb this week. The yield on the key <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year US Treasury note</a> fell 2.1 basis points to 3.025, having started the week at around 2.95%.Elsewhere in markets, oil prices rose slightly, continuing a recent trend on the back of the EU's move to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/european-union-leaders-russian-oil-2022-5">ban Russian imports</a> and a belief that the OPEC+ group of producers' plans to increase output will <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-opec-cartel-gas-russia-saudi-arabia-energy-supply-2022-6">not be enough</a> to cool the market.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a> was up 0.24% to $123.36 a barrel, around its highest level since 2012, bar the spike to around $140 shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a>, the US benchmark, was 0.21% higher at $121.81 a barrel.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-inflation-investing-strategy-recession-mario-gabelli-2022-5?r=US&amp;IR=T" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">A portfolio manager at billionaire investor Mario Gabelli's $41 billion firm says to buy these 27 stocks that have the pricing power to deliver returns as inflation soars</a>

Global stocks slip as traders wait for key US inflation data, due amid a surge in gas prices

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Peloton CEO Barry McCarthy told employees Friday the company is cutting 800 more jobs, closing stores, and raising prices.</li><li>"These changes are essential if Peloton is ever going to become cash flow positive. Cash is oxygen. Oxygen is life," he wrote in the memo to staff.</li></ul>Peloton is in the midst of another great upheaval as it tries to get business back on track following <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peloton-company-history-rise-fall-2022-2">a turbulent year for the connected fitness company</a>.On Friday, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-peloton-ceo-barry-mccarthy-spotify-netflix-cfo-experience-2022-2">CEO Barry McCarthy</a> told employees Peloton is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peloton-layoffs-800-employees-raising-bike-prices-closing-stores-2022-8">cutting 800 more jobs, closing stores, and raising prices</a>, as Bloomberg first <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-12/peloton-pton-to-cut-jobs-raise-prices-shut-stores-and-outsource-operations?sref=L96M5o70#xj4y7vzkg">reported</a>.Here's his full memo, which Insider obtained, announcing the changes:Team —I'm writing to update all of you on Peloton's ongoing transformation. The past few months we've made considerable progress on our journey. We continue to define and lead the global Connected Fitness category, even as we work to make Peloton more efficient, cost effective, innovative, and to best position ourselves for the future. Thank you for your hard work. We have a clear strategy to drive the long-term, sustainable future of this company. Job one is generating free cash flow by right-sizing our inventory commitments and converting many of our fixed costs to variable costs because that cost structure better aligns with the seasonal revenue of the business. Second, we are also focused on innovation across our hardware and software to strengthen our Member experience. And, finally, we're focused on growth and expanding the ways consumers can experience the magic of Peloton. We are making several additional changes to the business to improve our performance.Maintaining Our Premium Brand PositioningFor several months we've been running the business to maximize cash flow. In April, we lowered prices on our original Bike, Bike+ and Tread to make the entry point for new Members more accessible and to accelerate the sale of inventory to generate much needed cash flow. At the time, we were still in the early days of our $800 million restructuring plan. We were under considerable cash flow pressure, and we were in the process of (but had not yet completed) securing a $750 million bank loan.Because of our success managing our inventory and supply chain issues, and because of the bank financing, we have the opportunity to adopt a more nuanced pricing strategy targeting "value" and Premium Members alike by increasing prices on our Bike+ and Tread models — which contain distinctive, superior design elements, while keeping the price of Bike v1 and Guide the same. Specifically, in the US, our new price structure will be as follows:<ul><li>Bike+ will increase by $500 to $2,495</li><li>Tread will increase by $800 to $3,495</li></ul>This pricing change achieves three objectives – we maintain an attractive entry point for new Members; we continue to sell down excess Bike v1 inventory, creating a financial tailwind on investments already made; and we maintain our position as the undisputed premium brand in the Connected Fitness category. Optimizing our Operations and WorkforceWe continue to make strategic changes to our operations and workforce. Following last month's exit from owned-manufacturing in Taiwan, we are now restructuring our final mile delivery capabilities by expanding our work with our third party logistics (3PLs) providers. As a result, we are eliminating our North American Field Ops warehouses, resulting in a significant reduction in our delivery workforce teams.Unfortunately, this means a number of team members will be departing the company. We know changes of this nature are never easy.The shift of our final mile delivery to 3PLs will reduce our per-product delivery costs by up to 50% and will enable us to meet our delivery commitments in the most cost-efficient way possible. I also want to highlight that we have been actively working with our 3PLs to dramatically improve the Member experience, and we are seeing positive momentum in those CSAT (customer satisfaction) scores. This has been a challenge. We won't fix it overnight, but we have no choice but to make it work, so we're leaning into it and proactively managing our 3PL relationships. We are confident in the plan we've put in place and we're encouraged by the progress we're making. After re-examining the resources required to provide our Members best-in-class support, we have also decided to reduce fixed costs by eliminating a significant number of roles on the in-house North America Member Support Team. In-bound Member support volume has been lower than forecasted, and like other parts of the business, we are going to expand our work with our third party partners. These expanded partnerships mean we can ensure we have the ability to scale up and down as volume fluctuates while still continuing to provide the level of service our Members have come to expect.These are hard choices because we are impacting people's lives. These changes are essential if Peloton is ever going to become cash flow positive. Cash is oxygen. Oxygen is life. We simply must become self-sustaining on a cash flow basis. I want to take this opportunity to express my gratitude to those delivery team and Member Support colleagues who have been impacted by this decision. Investing in Talent to Innovate and GrowIn the past you have heard me say we cannot cost cut our way to success. We have to make our revenues stop shrinking and start growing again. We do that with investments in marketing and R&amp;D to drive innovative products. We must also develop new features and functionality for existing CF platforms that delight Members and drive word-of-mouth, which drives organic growth. And, we double-down on our existing strengths, particularly our world-class, Instructor-led content that motivates and inspires Members daily. While we're reducing our workforce in certain areas of the business, we continue to fill roles on key teams to drive the business forward. This includes further commitment to recruiting top talent in key areas of need such as our software engineering team. I share this so you won't think we're driving with our foot on the gas and the brake at the same time. Success is about making the right investments to drive growth while managing to a cost structure the business can afford.I've also long-believed hands-on, shoulder-to-shoulder collaboration is essential for fast, efficient teamwork and innovation. To that end, we'll be asking all office-based employees to return to their office three days per week starting on Tuesday, September 6th. We know some of you will need more time to sort out related details, and we are asking that you do so, working with your manager, with a deadline of Monday, November 14th for all of us to be back in the office (if your PeloTeam designation is office-based) every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. You also are welcome to come in more often, if you'd like, and take full advantage of the office amenities and gym.As of November 14th, return to office for office-based workers (not you if you were hired to be remote) will be mandatory. There are many successful businesses, like Airbnb and Spotify, who have chosen to operate remotely. There are also many successful companies who have opted to collaborate in the office in person, like Nike and Google. The culture you choose to work in should be compatible with your personal preference. For those of you who don't want to return to the office, we respect your choice. We hope you choose to stay, but we understand not everyone will.Balancing E-Commerce and Retail Lastly, we need to rebalance our e-commerce and retail mix to drive efficiencies, which means we will reduce our retail presence across North America. This decision will result in a significant and aggressive reduction of Peloton's retail footprint. Data tells us that in the post-Covid economy, consumers want a mix of virtual and in-person engagement with the brands they love, meaning a hybrid model of e-commerce as well as limited physical retail touchpoints. We have to meet our prospective Members where they are. We will provide future updates on which retail operations will be impacted by this decision in the coming months. We do not anticipate closing retail locations in calendar 2022, but the timing is uncertain as we begin negotiations to exit our store leases.Forward FocusedIn closing, I want to reiterate that I know some of this news is difficult to hear as it has a real impact on people's lives who believe in the mission and our ability to manage the business for success. Today's news reminds us it was never more important that we be successful in managing our turnaround. That's the reason we're making the hard choices to shift our cost structure from fixed to variable and to right size our spending in retail stores. As we face economic uncertainty in the global macroeconomic outlook, we will continue to analyze our workforce and expenditures. Change is constant, and we need to embrace it and make it one of our super powers.Overall, I continue to be optimistic about the future of Peloton. That doesn't mean there won't be challenges ahead. There will be, and there will be unforeseen setbacks. That's the nature of turnarounds. But I'm confident we can overcome the challenges because we've come so far in just the last four months, which feeds my optimism about our ability to engineer our long-term success. No one's gonna give it to us, least of all our competitors. We're going to have to step up and make it happen. The future of connected fitness is Peloton's to own. Me to you. You to me. You to each other. And all of us to our Members.-Barry

Read the memo Peloton CEO Barry McCarthy sent to employees announcing job cuts, price hikes, and store closures

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="483718" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="PCE">PCE</keyword> price index - a popular <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword> measure - rose 0.6% in April as spending rebounded.</li><li>The reading matches the median economist estimate and marks the fastest rate of price growth since 2008.</li><li>The Biden administration expects strong inflation to fade next year, but Republicans say they fear a dangerous overshoot.</li></ul>Stronger inflation has officially arrived. Where price growth trends from here could determine whether President Joe Biden's recovery plan was a success - or sparked a new set of economic risks.The <keyword id="1785398" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Personal-Consumption-Expenditures">Personal Consumption Expenditures</keyword> price index - one of the most popular inflation metrics in the US - gained 0.6% through April, the <keyword id="64256" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Commerce-Department">Commerce Department</keyword> announced Friday morning. The jump is the largest single-month gain since 2008 and matches the median estimate of a 0.6% increase from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.The PCE index also notched a 3.6% year-over-year gain, surpassing the median estimate of 3.5%. While year-over-year readings are often used to strip out single-month effects, the historically weak inflation seen in spring 2020 skews the comparisons somewhat. Price growth turned negative early in the pandemic and trended at low levels for months afterward. Those year-ago readings now make for a lower bar with which to compare today's price growth.Core <keyword id="11345117" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pce-inflation">PCE inflation</keyword>, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.7% last month. That compares to a median estimate of 0.6%. The core index's year-over-year jump reached 3.1%, the highest since 1992. The core measure is the inflation gauge of choice for the Federal Reserve, which aims to let price growth run above 2% for some time before targeting an average 2% rate. Inflation has become the topic du jour for lawmakers and economists as the country reopens. The Biden administration and the Fed have maintained that while the recovery will drive a bout of stronger price growth, elevated inflation will prove transitory and trend at healthy levels next year."My judgment right now is the recent inflation we've seen is temporary. It's not something that's endemic," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-temporary-infrastructure-spending-plan-economic-recovery-janet-yellen-2021-5">told lawmakers on Thursday</a>. "I expect it to last, however, for several more months and to see high annual rates of inflation through the end of this year."The Fed's inflation forecast likely won't change unless "convincing evidence" of a sustained jump emerges, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note. Persistent wage growth could also signal inflation is permanently rising. Either way, such signs are unlikely to show up until the fall, leaving experts and lawmakers in the dark as to how price growth will trend, the economist added. Republicans, however, recently <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-inflation-argument-irresponsible-comparison-biden-stimulus-spending-price-growth-2021-5">doubled down on their argument</a> that Biden's stimulus plan is behind the inflation overshoot and risks overheating the <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword>. A recent memo from the Republican Study Committee urged House Republicans to tie inflation to Biden's economic policy and warn that his follow-up spending proposals would only further accelerate price growth.To be sure, the White House's infrastructure and family plans are set to spread spending out over eight to 10 years, as opposed to the stimulus plan's immediate rollout. That would likely dampen the massive packages' inflationary effects.

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