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Former president Donald Trump has said Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will meet him next week during his upcoming three-day visit to the US. While the Republican presidential candidate slammed India as an "abuser" on the issue of import tariffs, he described Modi as a "fantastic man". PM Modi will be visiting the US from September 21 to 23. Speaking on Tuesday at his first public appearance following the recent apparent assassination attempt, Trump said Modi will meet him next week when he is in the US. "So when India, which is a very big abuser. He (Modi) happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he's fantastic. I mean, fantastic man. A lot of these leaders are fantastic," Trump said, reiterating that India imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The former president revealed the information as he spoke about trade and tariffs while responding to a question at a town hall meeting in Flint, Michigan. He went on to say, "These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards...You know the expression, they're at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough....China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs." "So we're going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us USD 2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing. And what's going to happen? Everything's going to disappear, and we're going to end up having free trade again. And if it doesn't disappear, we're going to take in a lot of money," he said. Modi will begin his trip with the <keyword id="23214075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders' Summit</keyword> being hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. The summit will be attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. Modi will then travel to New York and address a mega community event in Long Island on September 22. He will address world leaders at the landmark Summit of the Future event at the UN headquarters the next day. Modi's visit comes less than two months before the US heads into presidential elections with Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the top job. The US general elections will take place on November 5.

Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him 'fantastic'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>High tariffs on China could prevent the US defense industry from getting needed supplies, a Beijing advisor said.</li><li>"If those military enterprises do not have supply from China, they will not be able to continue with their production."</li></ul>The US defense sector will face big repercussions if Donald Trump launches tariffs against China, an advisor tied to Beijing's government said.Ding Yifan, a senior fellow at the State Council's Development Research Center, told international media that Trump's protectionist policies would prevent US defense manufacturers from accessing needed supplies."If those military enterprises do not have supply from China, they will not be able to continue with their production," he said, as cited by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/6d0484e8-e65f-478d-8548-4e3aa37ed339">Financial Times</a>. These "severe consequences" would extend to other American sectors dependent on cheap Chinese parts.Ding's commentary is among the most explicit pushback from China since Trump's election win. Though details remain scarce, the president-elect has pledged a 60% tariff rate on imports from the world's second-biggest economy.Trump has argued that these policies will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">fix trade imbalances</a> while directing investment in domestic businesses. His administration has also suggested that high tariffs boost the country's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjxhW_lkWps">negotiating power</a>.But Ding reframed the idea as costly for the US, citing that a large part of American business relies on intermediate goods from China."Downstream American companies will not be able to find substitute products in a very short period of time if Chinese companies are not able to provide them with the products," he warned.Meanwhile, the defense sector's dependence on Chinese producers is not minimal. In September, RTX CEO Greg Hayes said that the aerospace giant was looking for alternatives to replace <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/rtx-sees-labor-challenges-exploring-alternatives-china-suppliers-2024-09-10/">roughly 2,000 Chinese suppliers</a> it relied on.To be sure, it remains to be seen how Trump's tariff ideas actually pan out.According to a Monday note from JPMorgan, the incoming administration may prefer to implement lower rates on goods where China is the dominant supplier. If tariff rates are differentiated this way, the bank expects a modest impact on US GDP.So far, the defense sector appears distracted by other developments tied to Trump's presidency.As concern has grown that Trump's cost cutting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vivek-ramaswamy-doge-wants-to-delete-entire-federal-agencies-2024-11">Department of Government Efficiency</a> could weigh on the sector, the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-sp-aerospace-defense-etf-us78464a6313">S&amp;P Aerospace and Defense ETF</a> is down about about 4% since last Monday.

Trump's China tariffs would cut into US defense production, Beijing advisor says

India's gold and silver imports from its free trade agreement (FTA) partner UAE have skyrocketed 210 per cent to USD 10.7 billion in 2023-24 and there is a need to potentially revise the concessional customs duty rates under the pact to mitigate the arbitrage driving this surge, a report said on Monday. Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (<keyword id="15910220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GTRI" source="Orion">GTRI</keyword>) said this sharp rise in gold and silver imports is primarily driven by import duty concessions granted by India to the UAE under the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). India allows 7 per cent tariffs or customs duty concessions on import of unlimited quantities of silver and a 1 per cent concession on 160 metric tonnes of gold. CEPA was signed in February 2022 and implemented in May 2022. Additionally, India facilitates gold and silver imports by allowing private firms to import from the UAE through the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX) in Gift City. Previously, only authorised agencies could handle such imports, the report said. "While India's total imports from the UAE fell 9.8 per cent from USD 53.2 billion in FY23 to USD 48 billion in FY24, imports of gold and silver skyrocketed 210 per cent, from USD 3.5 billion to USD 10.7 billion," it said. "Import of all remaining products fell 25 per cent, from USD 49.7 billion in FY23 to USD 37.3 billion in FY24," it said. GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said the current import of gold and silver from the UAE is unsustainable as the UAE does not mine gold or silver or add sufficient value to imports. "High import duties in India on gold, silver, and jewellery at 15 per cent are at the root of the problem. Consider lowering tariffs to 5 per cent. This will cut large-scale smuggling and other misuse," Srivastava said. Trade in gold, silver, and diamonds has been prone to misuse due to their low volume but high value and high import duties in India. Low tariff imports of gold, silver only benefit few importers who keep all profits arising through tariff arbitrage and never pass it to consumers, he said. Srivastava suggested the government implement certain measures to help India balance its <keyword id="21681862" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-policies" source="keywords">trade policies</keyword>, protect domestic revenue, and ensure fair competition in the import of precious metals and jewellery. It suggested reassessing and potentially revising the concessional duty rates under CEPA to mitigate the arbitrage driving the surge in imports of gold and silver. "At least, implement yearly import quotas (tariff rate quotas) for silver, similar to those for gold, to control the volume of imports and prevent revenue loss," it said, adding that India should rigorously verify the claimed value addition by Dubai-based refiners in gold and silver imports to ensure compliance with CEPA rules of origin. It also asked to tighten regulations around the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX) at Gift City to control the volume and nature of <keyword id="22080399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="precious-metal-imports" source="keywords">precious metal imports</keyword> and the exchange should not allow country-based exemptions. As increased imports contribute to a higher current account deficit and since gold and silver act more like financial instruments than regular trade items, India should avoid including them in any FTA. "India has granted <keyword id="20542001" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tariff-concessions" source="keywords">tariff concessions</keyword> for these items in many FTAs and under the DFTP (duty-free tariff preference) scheme, so a comprehensive review is needed. India announced the scheme for LDCs (least developed countries) in 2008. Under this, India provides duty free/preferential market access on about 98.2 per cent of India's tariff lines (or product categories). Further, the report stated that silver imports from the UAE increased multifold to USD 1.74 billion in 2023-24 from a meagre USD 29.2 million in 2022-23 due to India charging an 8 per cent duty under the CEPA versus a 15 per cent duty from other countries. "The large 7 per cent tariff arbitrage resulted in a loss of revenue for India of Rs 1,010 crore in FY24. Revenue loss will increase as India has committed to make tariffs zero on unlimited quantities of silver from the UAE within next 8 years," it added. It said this trade is unusual because the UAE just imports large silver and gold bars, melt and convert these into silver grains and unwrought gold for exports. "A check with global refiners will show that value addition in such process is much less than 1 per cent as opposed to 3 per cent required under the FTA," it said. On gold bars, the report said India agreed to import 200 metric tons of gold annually from the UAE with a 1 per cent tariff concession and due to this gold imports rose 147.6 per cent from USD 3 billion in FY23 to USD 7.6 billion in FY24, causing India to lose Rs 635 crore in revenue in FY24. Similarly, India's jewellery imports have increased 187.6 per cent from USD 1.1 billion in FY23 to USD 3.3 billion in FY24, whereas these imports from the UAE have increased 290 per cent from USD 347 million in FY23 to USD 1.35 billion in the last fiscal.

Gold, silver import from UAE surged 210% in 2023-24; Need duty revision in FTA: GTRI

Domestic <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have risen by 10% on a year-to-date basis on the back of the strength in global gold prices, which have surged by 18% year-to-date, driven by robust <keyword id="19894998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-bank" source="keywords">central bank</keyword> purchases, heightened geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of a monetary policy pivot from the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>, according to the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. The reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has ignited a resurgence in gold demand across <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. Reports from the recently concluded India International Jewellery Show indicate a substantial increase in order bookings from retailers, particularly in preparation for the upcoming festive and wedding season. Manufacturers have noted that in some cases, orders have reached levels not seen in several years, underscoring the strong buying interest among <keyword id="21595593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">jewellery retailers</keyword> and consumers alike. The trend of bar and coin buying has also remained robust, with both consumers and jewellers capitalizing on the more attractive prices to stock up for future manufacturing needs. Historical analysis suggests that Indian consumer demand, encompassing jewellery and bar and coin demand, could see an additional 50 tonnes or more in the second half of 2024. This potential increase is fueled by a combination of an initial boost in consumer appetite due to the more attractive prices and a longer-term alignment of local prices with international rates. In a notable shift, domestic gold prices, which had been trading at a discount to international prices for five consecutive months, have now started trading at a premium following the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> announcement. The discount had widened significantly in July, reaching a peak of around $80 per ounce in the third week of the month, driven by subdued demand and an increased supply of gold through various preferential trade agreements and unofficial channels. However, wholesalers who had inventory purchased under the old customs duty regime began selling gold at a premium to the landed cost to mitigate their losses, further supported by increased consumer demand. While the premiums have moderated recently, from $28 per ounce to around USD 5 per ounce, this shift highlights the changing market sentiment and the impact of rising international gold prices and potential inventory valuation adjustments. The changes introduced in the Union Budget, including a reduction in the long-term investment holding period and a lower tax rate, have made gold ETFs a more attractive investment option. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reveals that net inflows into gold ETFs in July amounted to Rs 13.4 billion (approximately USD 160 million), marking the highest monthly inflows since February 2020 and an 84% increase compared to June 2024. Despite these inflows, the total assets under management (AUM) for Indian gold ETFs grew marginally by 0.3% from the previous month, reaching Rs 345 billion ($4.1 billion). This modest increase can be attributed to the 8 % fall in domestic gold prices following the import duty reduction. Year-to-date, net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have totalled Rs 45 billion ($543 million), with total AUMs rising by 48 % from a year ago. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has continued its gold purchasing trend, although at a slower pace following a significant increase in June, when purchases reached 9.3 tonnes--the highest monthly total in nearly two years. Year-to-date, the RBI's gold acquisitions have totaled 44.3 tonnes, surpassing the total purchases of the past two years combined. The RBI's gold reserves have now reached a record 849 tonnes, representing 8.8% of total foreign reserves, compared to 7.5 % a year ago. In July, gold imports remained steady at $3.1 billion, maintaining the stable trend observed over the previous three months. Between April and July, imports averaged $3.2 billion, with volumes ranging between 43 and 47 tonnes during this period. The gold import bill for July 2024 was 11 % lower than the previous year, with an estimated 26% decrease in volume terms, around 47 tonnes. Despite a surge in international gold prices, domestic gold prices in India have experienced a notable decline, primarily due to the 9 % reduction in import duty announced in the Union Budget 2024-25. This policy change has led to a 6% decrease in the landed cost of gold, marking a shift in the domestic gold market dynamics.

Domestic gold prices surge 10% amid global price rally, central bank buying: World Gold Council

<ul class="summary-list"><li>An index of non-US stocks saw their steepest decline since August this week. </li><li>The broad sell-off came after Trump's election win stoked fears of coming trade wars. </li></ul>Donald Trump's win has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">sent US stocks on a tear</a>, but for equities in the rest of the world, it's sparked a sell-off on fears of a widespread economic downturn due to tariff risks.An MSCI <a target="_blank" href="https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/899901">index</a> of large and mid-sized stocks outside the US tumbled 1.6% on Tuesday, its steepest daily drop since August.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index, meanwhile, lost 2.1% for its worst one-day drop in three months, while an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800">index</a> of emerging market stocks dropped 2%. Another index shows emerging market currencies have nearly pared their year-to-date gains with a 1% drop since the election.The losses come a week after Trump's US election win and as the president-elect has appointed some key cabinet members.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11">Trump's appointments</a> have shown a preference toward his most loyal supporters and those who he says share his "America First" protectionist agenda. Along the campaign trail, Trump proposed an across-the-board tariff of at least 10%, with a far steeper tariff of 60% on imports from China. If enacted, those duties would pose <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*1mwwhu3*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxMDc3NS4zOTkuMS4xNzMxNTEyMDU5LjcuMC4w">huge obstacles</a> for international economies reliant on trade with the US.In Europe, analysts at Dutch bank ING say there could be a "full blown recession" under Trump's tariffs, while Germany in particular could suffer a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bundesbanks-nagel-trump-tariffs-could-cost-germany-1-economic-output-2024-11-13/">1% hit to GDP</a>, according to the country's central bank president Joachim Nagel.China's already fragile economy, meanwhile, will only be further damaged by a new trade war. Analysts at UBS say tariffs would hamstring most trade between the two nations and likely affect China's GDP."The mooted 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on imports from the rest of the world could make much of US-China trade unviable, reduce US domestic demand and corporate profits, and lead to lower GDP growth around the world, particularly in China," the analysts wrote in a note last week.As stocks in the rest of the world have faced steep declines, US shares have rallied sharply since the election.The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have each jumped to record highs, driven by gains in Trump trades like bitcoin, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trillion-valuation-donald-trump-election-win-tsla-2024-11?_gl=1*jyqhh7*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxOTczNy4zOTIuMS4xNzMxNDE5NzcxLjI2LjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Tesla</a> and shares of banks expected to benefit from deregulation and tax cuts.

Non-US stocks have seen their sharpest sell-off since August on fears over Trump's tariffs

India remains highly dependent on imports for minerals critical to accelerating its <keyword id="19951336" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-transition" source="keywords">energy transition</keyword>, with a full reliance on shipping in lithium, cobalt and nickel, according to a report released Monday. The report, published by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said that India's demand for <keyword id="19978839" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="critical-minerals" source="keywords">critical minerals</keyword> is expected to more than double by 2030, while domestic mining operations may take over a decade to start producing. It stresses that India needs a carefully crafted import strategy to mitigate potential trade risks while balancing international relationships to secure these essential minerals. IEEFA's report examines five critical minerals (and their compounds) - cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium and nickel - from the perspectives of import dependency, trade dynamics, domestic availability, and global price fluctuations. The findings show that India remains largely import-dependent for these minerals and their compounds, with 100 per cent import reliance for minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. "India should strive to de-risk its critical minerals sourcing by identifying new international resources and expediting <keyword id="20681115" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-production" source="keywords">domestic production</keyword>. A concerted effort to partner with and foster bilateral relations with <keyword id="23713985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mineral-rich-nations" source="keywords">mineral-rich nations</keyword> should be a priority for India," said the report's co-author Charith Konda, Energy Specialist, IEEFA. "The country can also explore investment opportunities in resource-rich, friendly nations, such as Australia and Chile, as well as African countries like Ghana and South Africa," he added. The report said India depends heavily on China for synthetic graphite and natural graphite and it should explore cooperation initiatives with countries like Mozambique, Madagascar, Brazil and Tanzania which are some of the highest graphite producing countries. "As part of the Global South cooperation initiatives, these countries could be favourable partners for India for <keyword id="23713984" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="graphite-trading" source="keywords">graphite trading</keyword>," said the report's co-author Kaira Rakheja, Energy Analyst, IEEFA. India is also highly import-dependent for copper cathodes and nickel sulphates from just two countries - Japan and Belgium. The report suggests India could look at the US, the fifth largest producer of copper in the world, to diversify its suppliers and enhance <keyword id="23714709" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="supply-security" source="keywords">supply security</keyword>. For minerals like lithium oxide and nickel oxide, the dependency is low on one country, but overall imports largely come from Russia and China, both countries with potential trade risks. "Developing domestic lithium refining capacity will help India integrate with the global lithium supply chain," said Rakheja. The report also notes the significant efforts that the Indian government is making to improve domestic production of critical minerals with the auctions by the Ministry of Mines and the planned Critical Minerals Mission. "The critical minerals mining block auctions can serve as an opportunity for India to focus on building refining and processing capabilities to emerge as a global value-adding hub," said Rakheja. "Government support in the form of viability gap funding and technology development will help promote such auctions and ultimately the domestic production of critical minerals. "A stable supply of critical minerals is imperative for India to achieve its <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> goals," Konda said. India has committed to achieving 500 gigawatts (GW) of non-fossil fuel-based electricity installed capacity by 2030. Currently, the country's renewable energy installed capacity stands at 201 GW, with solar energy accounting for 91 GW. According to another study, the fast-developing South Asian nation needs to install around 7,000 GW of renewable energy capacity to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.

Energy transition: India remains highly dependent on imports of critical minerals, says report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US dollar is likely to be the first asset to signal what markets think the election result will be.</li><li>Strong liquidity and global 24-hour trading activity make the dollar a reliable indicator.</li></ul>The US dollar might be the most important asset to watch for a potential read on the US election results as the votes are tallied this week.Raymond James' chief investment strategist David Zervos said that the US dollar will be the first asset to telegraph the likely winner as markets digest the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency. In an interview with CNBC, Zervos said the dollar "will be the most liquid and the most transparent messaging to what we are getting markets to do because that's where people could put money to work fast."He highlighted that the US dollar is traded 24/7 with massive liquidity from trading parties around the world. Therefore, as election results roll in during the late hours of Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, the dollar will likely be the first asset class to move on the results.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">dollar is seen as rising under a potential Trump presidency,</a> as his tariff proposals would likely raise interest rates, which in turn would lead to a stronger dollar.On the flip side, a falling US dollar would likely suggest that a Kamala Harris victory is reflected in the election results because <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">interest rates are seen as more likely to continue falling under a Harris administration,</a> putting downward pressure on the dollar.As for how to get a read on who markets think will win, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">the US dollar index </a>will be a strong gauge of how traders are digesting the early election results. The index measures the dollar against a basket of other major currencies and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">has rallied over the past month</a> as former President Donald Trump gained momentum in the polls and in betting markets.Beyond the dollar index, Zervos said it would be important to watch moves in <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-cny">the dollar relative to the Chinese renminbi</a>. "Dollar-China has been a big trade because people saw that as a real Trump winning trade, meaning he's going to go hard on China," Zervos said. "That's got a lot of crowded positioning in it. I'd be watching dollar-China very closely overnight," Zervos said.Zervos expects a relief rally in risk assets as uncertainty surrounding the election begins to fade, assuming the results are decisive and known relatively soon."I think people really want to see smoothness here, then we can just see risk assets do better, we could see credit do better. We could see the panicky trades that people might have put on get pulled off," Zervos said.Ultimately, Zervos said he'll change his stock and bond investments based on the dollar's reaction to the election results."We watch the dollar, that's our first indication of where the repositioning is taking place and then we can feed that back into bonds and stocks and different sectors," Zervos said.

Why the US dollar is the most important asset to watch as the election results come in

Last week, the President of the United States, <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword>, announced significant tariffs on a range of <keyword id="20139085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-products" source="keywords">Chinese products</keyword> to protect American workers from unfair trade practices. The targetted measures include a 100% tariff on <keyword id="6354973" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicles" source="Orion">electric vehicles</keyword>, a 50% tariff on semiconductors and solar cells, and a 25% tariffs on batteries, steel and aluminium products, some critical minerals, and essential health equipment like medical gloves, syringes and needles. In his address from the Rose Garden of the White House, Biden said America can continue to buy any kind of car they want, "but we're never going to allow China to unfairly control the market for these cars. Period." He claimed that the Chinese government has been investing state funds in various Chinese companies for years, spanning industries across the above-mentioned sectors. How does this brewing geopolitical <keyword id="20736760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-war" source="keywords">trade war</keyword> impact <keyword id="20742235" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-firms" source="keywords">Indian firms</keyword>? Experts say the impact could be in two ways, benefitting some sectors, while harming the few others. Let’s start with the bad news. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Threat to Indian firms" comment="subhead" text="Threat to Indian firms">Threat to Indian firms</cmsannotation> Beijing offers significant subsidies on most of these products, leading to surplus production that exceeds domestic and even regular export demand. Subsequently, Chinese companies are known to flood the global markets with surplus products at unreasonably low prices, forcing local manufacturers out of business in many countries, including <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. A prime example of this in practice can be found in the steel sector, where weak domestic demand is pushing the world’s largest steel producer China to offload surplus production into Indian markets at cheaper prices. Indian steel manufacturers are already struggling to compete with a glut of cheaper Chinese steel, with shipments nearly doubling year-on-year in the financial year ending March 2024. “India is already under grave threat of import because all major steel consuming economies are shutting their doors on these steel producing countries. We are highly vulnerable to surging and predatory import,” said Alok Sahay, secretary general of the Indian Steel Association, to Reuters. Global trade experts say that a majority of Chinese products are sold at unreasonably low prices in global markets because the companies in these sectors do not have to worry about profits. They are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government. <keyword id="20279291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Steel-Authority-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Steel Authority of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Steel Authority of India">Steel Authority of India</keyword>’s (SAIL) chairman Amarendu Prakash also said that they are keenly watching Chinese imports after the US tariff increases. Additionally, China has been accused of employing anti-competitive strategies like compelling foreign companies to transfer their technology in order to operate in China. These factors have led to the US effectively shutting its door on several Chinese products through heightened tariffs, and other developed markets like Canada are also likely to follow suit. White House also emphasised that it continues to consult with its partners and allies who are facing similar threats from China’s unfair trade practices and are keen on taking action. If more and more global markets restrict entry of Chinese products, the risk of the majority of such products being dumped in neighbouring India increases drastically. Trying to block Chinese excess production "is like squeezing a balloon. It shrinks in one place and pops out in another," William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, tells Reuters. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="An opportunity also arises" comment="subhead" text="An opportunity also arises">An opportunity also arises</cmsannotation> While some products risk being dumped into the Indian market, in a few other cases, Indian firms could benefit from fresh openings in the lucrative US market. "Of the products affected, India has opportunities in face masks, PPE, syringes &amp;needles, medical gloves, aluminium, iron, and steel. Opportunity may come in China also with retaliation, provided we have market access in products targeted by China," Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), told ANI. However, China is not likely to retaliate against the US tariffs at the moment, say experts, though the country’s Ministry of Commerce said it would take 'resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests' "China's economy is fragile. With household spending and the property market on the wane, manufacturing for export markets is one of its few bright spots. Beijing will not want to cut off its nose to spite its face. More broadly, China is desperately trying to encourage new foreign investment. Rash retaliatory action could spoil its case," Moody's Analytics explained in a recent report. Out of China's USD 420 billion exports to the US, only USD 18 billion is impacted due to the latest hike in tariffs — representing slightly over 4% and therefore considered marginal. But Sahai says that this market will continue to grow with time and provides an opportunity to India and other competitors to chip in the supply gap. Ajay Srivastava, the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), also echoes Sahai’s opinions. He emphasised that the increased duties on Chinese face masks, syringes, needles, medical gloves, and natural graphite offer a substantial opportunity for India, as quoted by ANI. "By ramping up production and export of these in-demand products, India could enhance its trade footprint in the US market," he added. In terms of products like electric vehicles and semiconductors, India remains a net importer, and therefore, may not be in a position to capitalise right now. In the long term, however, as India begins semiconductor production at scale in 2025, there will be opportunities to export some of it to the US and other European countries, offering fresh impetus for domestic manufacturing. As the security risks associated with importing Chinese semiconductors prompts more and more trade barriers from the Western countries, demand for supply from India is likely to grow. Efforts are already underway for the establishment of four large semiconductor plants in India, with three located in Gujarat and one in Assam. Last fiscal year, Indian exports to the US dipped marginally by 1.32 per cent to $77.5 billion as against $78.54 billion in 2022-23. The new development now gives an unique opportunity to turn the tide over the next few years. Overall, some sectors like steel and aluminium do face a serious challenge due to the fresh US tariffs on Chinese products. However, the development will open new avenues for Western market entry and expansion for several other products. (With inputs from agencies)

US-China tariff war could benefit several sectors in India while harming a few others

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Mark Cuban has criticized Donald Trump's tariff proposals.</li><li>In a Threads post on Friday, he said companies are already bracing for impact.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-mark-cuban-friends-relationship-history">Mark Cuban</a> is raising the alarm again on President-elect Donald Trump's tariff proposals.In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.threads.net/@mcuban/post/DCGO8NXxt86">Threads post</a> on Friday, Cuban said companies are already bracing for potential tariffs on Chinese imports by shoring up inventory. Cuban wrote that this will inevitably raise consumer prices due to the cost of storing inventory.While he didn't specifically name Trump, Cuban referred to Trump's proposal to put a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, which some economists say will have an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11?r=nordic">inflationary impact</a> on the economy."Right now every company that imports from China is taking all the cash they can muster, and buying up as much as they can and stuffing it in a warehouse, in anticipation of the tariffs creating accelerated demand for imports," he wrote. "That money would have been used for expansion, raises, bonuses, and other operational elements. Because cash is relatively expensive, and it costs money to store inventory, those companies will increase prices as if they had paid the expected higher tariffs."Cuban, who became an unexpected surrogate for Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign earlier this year, has repeatedly criticized <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-trump-new-tax-cut-tariff-every-city-visit-2024-9">Trump's gratuitous use of tariffs</a> in his economic policies."Trump has a new tax cut or tariff for every city he visits. Even when it violates his own signed policies or the law," he wrote in an X post from September.In an interview with Harris, Cuban called Trump "the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-donald-trump-tariffs-christmas-presents-china-prices-harris-2024-10">Grinch that stole Christmas</a>" because the 60% tariff will raise prices on goods like holiday gifts.Cuban added in the Friday Threads post that the tariffs could also push the Chinese government to tell companies to stop buying from the United States altogether.A Trump spokesperson dismissed Cuban's statements. Cuban declined to comment.Many economists say that Trump's tariffs will ultimately hurt consumers' wallets.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-uncertainty-trump-presidency-inflation-tariffs-2024-11">Economist Paul Krugman</a> said the tariffs could see an "inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else you could do through federal policy."An analysis from the nonpartisan <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2024-09/wp24-20.pdf">Peterson Institute for International Economics</a> said the 60% tariff on Chinese imports could boost inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2025. The current inflation rate is 2.4%, the lowest rate in three years. A 0.4-percentage point increase would undercut the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">Federal Reserve's goal</a> to bring inflation down to 2%.An analysis from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy</a>, a left-leaning think tank, said that the tariffs will provide a tax cut for the top 5% of US income earners.Some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">company executives</a> have been vocal about the impacts of the tariff proposals.AutoZone CEO Philip Daniele said on a pre-election earnings call, "If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer."Columbia Sportswear CEO Timothy Boyle told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/30/companies-tariffs-trump-prices/">The Washington Post</a> that the company is "set to raise prices" under new tariffs and that it will be "very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">BMW CEO Oliver Zipse</a> offered a more optimistic view of the tariffs to reporters after the company's Q3 earnings report on Wednesday, saying, "We shouldn't be too nervous about what might happen."He said BMW has an "advantage" over other carmakers because of its large footprint in the United States.

Mark Cuban says Trump's tariff proposals will ramp up prices

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election sent Chinese shares lower on fears of upcoming tariffs.</li><li>Hong Kong's major index saw especially deep losses.</li></ul>Chinese markets aren't celebrating Trump's presidential win.Hong Kong absorbed most of the fallout, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index dropping 2.6% on Wednesday. China's CSI 300 slid 0.5% after declining as much as 1% at intraday lows.Wednesday's sell-off reflects heightened fear that global trade relations with the US could turn sour in Trump's second term. Analysts have warned of impending <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">trade wars</a> if the president-elect fulfills his promise to implement universal tariffs, pledging 60% duties on Chinese exports."We believe that tariffs are the most potentially consequential policy from an economic perspective," UBS wrote in a note Wednesday. "The mooted 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on imports from the rest of the world could make much of US-China trade unviable, reduce US domestic demand and corporate profits, and lead to lower GDP growth around the world, particularly in China."This fresh uncertainty also weighed on international currencies. China's offshore yuan notched its largest one-day drop since October 2022, falling as much as 1.3% against the US dollar.Still, the impact on China's mainland stock market was mute compared to its Hong Kong counterpart as investors awaited an expected stimulus boost on Friday.Bank of America expects Beijing to announce 6 trillion worth of yuan in bond issuance over three years to swap local government debt. If so, this would signal more willingness by the central government to take on more fiscal responsibility, analysts wrote on Tuesday — a "welcoming gesture" for markets.

Chinese stocks drop as Trump's presidency spells more tariff risk

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tariffs are back on cheap solar products coming from Southeast Asia.</li><li>The duties were paused to ensure US access to solar, but caused a supply glut.</li></ul>Tariffs are finally in play on cheap solar imports from Asia after a two-year moratorium on the restrictions expired on Thursday.The renewal of these taxes, which target Chinese-affiliated solar products exported from Southeast Asia, is an early step in leveling the playing field for US manufacturers, one analyst told Business Insider.The end of the moratorium should ease price volatility, bringing "a level of stability to the marketplace that, frankly, it's good for developers, it's good for producers, it's good for everybody," Mike Carr, executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers of America, said.In 2023, the Department of Commerce <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/us-department-commerce-determines-imports-southeast-asia-are-circumventing-addcvd">determined</a> that Chinese solar was making its way into the US duty-free, despite tariffs on imports from the country. Instead, Chinese producers would route their modules through Southeast Asia, which traded freely with the US.To close the loophole, the department issued tariffs on these regions as well. But their impact has never been felt, given a pre-emptive pause on the legislation, which just expired.Behind the tariff moratorium were White House concerns that the restrictions could hinder US energy transition, as domestic solar production was still nascent.But this gave way to a flood of cheap imports, causing solar prices to crater last year.In Carr's telling, that's because Southeast Asian producers never stopped manufacturing despite pausing trade during the department's investigation. Once the pause on tariffs took effect, the region unloaded, causing the massive supply glut."The level of imports far exceeded what was happening before the moratorium was put in place, and it just absolutely flooded our markets as well to an unprecedented level," Carr said. "And so when that happened, that created just massive uncertainty around pricing going forward in our market, as prices continued to fall. And so it did have an effect of killing some of the investment."In one extreme, the oversupply of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/solar-panel-price-cut-oversupply-us-renewable-energy-market-demand-2024-1">solar panels cause global pricing to drop by half</a> last year, with China driving the flood of supply. Meanwhile, solar shipments from Southeast Asian producers have not slowed, and accounted for 87.5% of US module imports in the first quarter, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/us-solar-panel-imports-near-record-levels-as-trade-probe-proceeds-81835205">S&amp;P Global</a> said.The tariffs could eventually bring upside for US producers, and Carr indicates that a 25%-30% price correction for solar modules could materialize.However, he emphasized that pricing isn't a leading driver of solar deployment, and analysts should not focus too much on prices to measure the industry's performance.Instead, the tariffs could succeed in calming volatility in the market and bringing back needed investment in the space, he said.At the same time, there are other positives for the domestic industry to look forward to, David Feldman of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory told BI. The market could soon see further guidance on tax credits related to the Inflation Reduction Act and trade adjustments to boost US competition.Since the the moratorium was lifted on Thursday, two major Chinese solar companies announced suspensions in Southeast Asian facilities, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinas-longi-says-some-southeast-asia-plants-reported-closed-by-media-are-still-2024-06-07/">Reuters</a> reported, as analysts expect import volumes to slow.Meanwhile, US producers are calling for more protections, with a coalition of manufacturers petitioning the Commerce Department to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/solar-manufacturers-petition-us-to-impose-tariffs-on-some-imports.html">impose more tariffs</a>.

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