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Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

Mumbai: The rupee slipped 1 paisa to an all-time low of 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as persistent <keyword id="20520117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-outflows" source="keywords">foreign fund outflows</keyword> and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit. Forex traders said the USDINR pair has shown significant volatility in recent sessions, with the rupee inching closer to its all-time low of 84.40. This downward pressure is largely driven by global factors, particularly the Dollar Index's strengthening. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee fell 1 paisa to a new lifetime low of 84.39 against the US dollar. "It appears that the rupee has established support around the current levels, with depreciation limited near 84.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the RBI stands tall as the depreciation in the rupee seems to be limited as the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) continues to sell the dollars to protect the sharp depreciation. "For the 5th consecutive week, India's forex reserves declined, possibly due to RBI selling the dollars. Currently, the forex reserves of India stand at USD 682 billion down from the recent all-time high of USD 704 billion," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04 per cent at 105.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.25 per cent to USD 72.07 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 210.66 points, or 0.27 per cent lower, to 78,464.52 points. The Nifty fell 100.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 23,783.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 3,024.31 crore, according to exchange data. On the macroeconomic front, retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. India's industrial production expanded by 3.1 per cent in September after recording a contraction in the preceding month, as all three major segments -- mining, manufacturing, and power generation -- showed improvement. However, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) during the month was lower than 6.4 per cent registered in September 2023.

Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

The rupee rose 2 paise to 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday amid a recovery in domestic equity markets and a weaker American currency against major Asian rivals. Forex traders said, however, sustained outflow of foreign funds and an upward movement in crude oil prices put pressure on the local unit and capped its sharp gain. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.39 and slipped further to 84.40 against the greenback, trading 2 paise higher from its previous close. On Monday, the rupee recovered from its lowest level of 84.46 to settle 4 paise higher at 84.42 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.09 per cent at 106.10. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.19 per cent to USD 73.44 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 271.42 points, or 0.35 per cent higher, at 77,610.43 points. The Nifty advanced 105.55 points, or 0.45 per cent, to 23,559.35 points. <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Foreign-Institutional-Investors" source="keywords">Foreign Institutional Investors</keyword> (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,403.40 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/tata-to-buy-a-majority-stake-in-pegatrons-iphone-plant-in-india/articleshow/115414852.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/tata-to-buy-a-majority-stake-in-pegatrons-iphone-plant-in-india/articleshow/115414852.cms" target="_blank">Tata to buy a majority stake in Pegatron's iPhone plant in India</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/ntpc-green-energy-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/115403791.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/ntpc-green-energy-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/115403791.cms" target="_blank">NTPC Green Energy IPO – GMP, risk factors and all you need to know</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/news/jiostar-announces-plans-starting-at-15-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/articleshow/115326701.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/news/jiostar-announces-plans-starting-at-15-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/articleshow/115326701.cms" target="_blank">JioStar announces plans starting at ₹15 – here’s everything you need to know</a>

Rupee rises 2 paise to 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

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Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

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Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

Rupee rises 2 paise to 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

PTI

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