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<ul><li>Among the group of top 10 economies, the most positive prospects in terms of international trade are related to India, said an S&amp;P report. </li><li>It also said that the country does not seem to be impacted by the global economic slowdown to a large extent.</li></ul>New Delhi [India], November 18 (ANI): Among the group of top 10 economies, the most positive prospects in terms of international trade are related to India and the country does not seem to be impacted by the global economic slowdown to a large extent, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest Global Trade Monitor report. The top 10 economies by GDP in 202, according to the report, include the US, EU27, mainland China, Japan, the UK, India, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, and Russia. These countries are responsible for approximately four-fifths of the world GDP and three-quarters of global exports, with most trade carried out within the group. The section in the report on expectations for international trade in the next months said the global economic slowdown now is more and more visible. Monthly historical data clearly shows that in the top 10 economies exports are primarily impacted slowing down in the majority of economies within the group. "The picture is slightly more optimistic for imports, yet the situation is expected to deteriorate in the forthcoming months for both exports and imports, which is reflected in the most recent PMI NExO readouts," the report said. The consequences of the global economic slowdown are not that apparent in the monthly data for 2022 as in the first three quarters of the year, the dynamics of exports and imports were relatively strong in the top 10 economies. "This should translate in still positive growth in 2022 from the yearly perspective, yet in 2023 global trade contraction may be expected. GTAS Forecasting expects trade recovery to start in 2024, returning to the long-term stable growth path," it added. On economic growth, the report said the months ahead will likely bring recessions in Europe, the US, Canada, and parts of Latin America. With moderate growth in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa, the world economy can avoid a downturn, but growth will be minimal. Global real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.9 per cent in 2021 to 2.8 per cent current year and 1.4 per cent in 2023. Notably, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence revised down the 2023 growth rate 0.6 percentage point from the last month's forecast. (ANI)

India has the best international trade prospects among top 10 economies: S&P

Global oil prices are rising, the <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>n rupee is depreciating, the government’s current account deficit is increasing. Government bonds are becoming riskier investments, and now, foreign portfolio investors are exiting India in droves, culminating in the largest monthly outflow since demonetisation was announced. From May 1st to May 25th, foreign investors pulled out a total of ₹267.7bn from Indian bonds and stock-markets, according to depository data. As a result, the total outflow is on track to exceed the ₹271.1 billion that they pulled out in December 2016 - the month after the government imposed its demonetisation initiative. This will be the highest outflow of foreign money in 18 months. Consistent outflow The investor panic after demonetisation was short-lived, as <keyword id="46757" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investment">foreign investment</keyword> stabilised and gradually increased in 2017-18. This was largely due to the implementation of the insolvency and bankruptcy code, the new GST law, surging stock-markets, a rebound in manufacturing growth and depressed interest rates in developed countries like the US. However, the outflow of foreign investment has been consistent in 2018 so far, pointing at a deeper malaise and lack of confidence in India’s short-term growth trajectory. In April, foreign investment outflows totalled <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/fpi-outflows-hit-16-month-high-at-rs-15500-crore-in-april/articleshow/64049143.cms">₹155bn</a>, a 16-month high. In addition, March yielded a meagre net inflow result of ₹26.5bn, only due to <keyword id="6391506" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Equity">equity</keyword> inflows, while net outflows in February 2018 totalled ₹116.7bn. In fact, as of May 25th, foreign outflows from India have totalled ₹291 billion in the year so far. Rupee set to weaken further As foreign investment continues its downward spiral and oil prices increase, the rupee will only weaken further as there are less foreign investors entering the economy and buying rupees. The Reserve Bank of India is trying to do its best to stem the fall, by using up its dollar reserves to prop the currency, but as its foreign reserves <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/forex-reserve-drops-3-2-billion-on-dollar-outflows/articleshow/64031531.cms">dwindle</a>, its ability to intervene in the future will be compromised. This scenario isn’t only limited to India, though. After years of low interest rates in the US and across Europe, money came from these countries into emerging markets in Asia and South America in search of higher returns. However, as interest rates in these developed markets are on the upswing, less money is leaving them. Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winning economist, raised alarm bells last week, when he pointed to <a href="https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/statuses/999272781215879168">an impending crisis in emerging markets</a>, based on the drastic decline in currencies, the pileup in dollar <keyword id="44647" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="debt">debt</keyword> and slowdown in economic growth. For now, foreign investment in India is tied to the country’s growth rate over the next few quarters, which is in turn, tied to oil prices. If India exceeds quarterly growth estimates, it will be able to lure investors back. However, with oil prices set to hover around $80 a barrel a near term, maintaining growth, let alone exceeding predictions, will be extremely difficult. It seems that foreign investors will continue to pull money out in the near term. As a result, the Indian government will have no choice but to rely on demand and investment from domestic entities to keep the bond and stock markets afloat.

Foreign investors are losing confidence in India’s short-term growth prospects

<ul><li><keyword id="10032656" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="dentsu-international">dentsu international</keyword> introduced the 'new' iProspect to the world last week.</li><li>In the word of the network, it is now a game-changing agency that offers digital-first end-to-end media approach that could be marked as the beginning of a new era of performance-driven brand building in India.</li><li>We reached out to <keyword id="3932871" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="rubeena-singh">Rubeena Singh</keyword>, CEO, <keyword id="3142170" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="iProspect-India">iProspect India</keyword> to understand what the new in iProspect is.</li><li>She shares a few factors that will help the agency get a clearer edge in the market, how changing people’s preconceptions about iProspect -- that it is no longer just a performance agency -- will be the biggest challenge ahead and the growth plan for 2021.</li></ul>dentsu International’s new iProspect is the first agency in India to offer performance-driven brand building on a global scale. Earlier this year, dentsu International also integrated Vizeum with iProspect, bringing together the former’s media strategy and planning, storytelling, and brand-building capabilities with the latter's digital expertise, audience knowledge, and performance mindset. Globally, the agency network has been on a consolidation spree. It is trying to simplify how it operates to deliver greater agility and flexibility for clients through a more focused portfolio. Rubeena Singh, CEO, iProspect India told us how everything is changed at the agency, but its name. It isn’t just a logo or website revamp. iProspect has a completely new all-sizes-fit-within approach to offer to its clients. It will look at the advertising world with a combined lens of human-centric solutions that drive growth for its clients; it is designed at the intersection of brand and performance. She further shared with us how the agency will continue to keep inclusion at the centre of all its communications and why she thinks the agency will attract a unique portfolio of clients with its new avatar. Excerpts: <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Q) Walk us through all that new about iProspect now?" text="Q) Walk us through all that new about iProspect now?">Q) Walk us through all that new about iProspect now?</cmsannotation> Two agencies with a lot of heritage and globally scaled brands have come together to make this new iProspect. We have a new proposition, a new approach to working, enhanced capabilities and integrated teams. The only thing that has remained the same is the name, the reason for this is two-fold… Firstly, and most crucially, we wanted to spend more of our time and energy on building solutions for our clients than building our own agency brand. Secondly, the iProspect brand name already has a huge global footprint and is universally synonymous with digital excellence that has performance at the centre. We, therefore, felt that keeping the iProspect name was the right thing to do, as so much of the brand recall is already in place. By integrating two award-winning agencies, we bring Vizeum’s media strategy and planning, storytelling and brand building capabilities together with iProspect’s digital expertise, audience knowledge, and performance mindset. Clients will have access to the unique capabilities of both agencies, all from one integrated team of highly skilled experts from across a multitude of media specialisms. We are in a unique position to help brands accelerate their growth by offering a digital-first end to end solutions. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Q) From a structural perspective, how will things be different? Are you planning to train more employees in performance marketing in India or hire new employees?" text="Q) From a structural perspective, how will things be different? Are you planning to train more employees in performance marketing in India or hire new employees?">Q) From a structural perspective, how will things be different? Are you planning to train more employees in performance marketing in India or hire new employees?</cmsannotation> We have reorganised ourselves in India to be able to offer this integrated approach to our clients. Where there were specialists that were looking at particular silos we have brought them together now and integrated them as a team. Today, at one unit, we'll be able to offer clients access to expansive new audience insights, integrated and more effective strategies, market-leading planning and activation, and unparalleled business performance. We will continue to upskill our current talent and also bring in new people as the business grows. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Q) What will be your focus areas as the agency dons its new avatar?" text="Q) What will be your focus areas as the agency dons its new avatar?">Q) What will be your focus areas as the agency dons its new avatar?</cmsannotation> The launch is just a beginning. We will now start demonstrating our digital-first, end-to-end solutions and also focus on building a culture for our teams where our teams can thrive. As an agency, we want to be behind the biggest growth stories in the business. Our mission is to deliver smart, scalable, honest, and relevant work that grows business, enriches our clients and makes media momentous. To do this, we need to focus on our current clients and understand how we can better help them succeed and grow their businesses through our dual-lens perspective of brand and performance. We will also look to partner with other brands, both domestic and international, who find themselves at a pivot point in their digital transformation in media. This is where we will make the biggest difference and where our skill sets can drive bigger and better growth for our clients. Q) Tell us a bit about the gender ratio at the agency. Your press statement mentions that diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is inherent at iProspect and within dentsu international, tell us how have you tried to make your agency inclusive and what are some of the things you would be doing this year to make it more inclusive? Because diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is inherent at iProspect and dentsu international, the new brand rollout also sees inclusion at the centre of all our communications. At iProspect India, we are trying to do our bit to remove/reduce some of these hurdles/difficulties that working women face. Women@iProspect, an initiative launched in 2018, is a small step towards it. Enhancing one’s chances to climb the ladder with much more confidence is our way of producing tomorrow’s leaders. Similarly, we launched Female Foundry in India, 2 years ago, to support female entrepreneurs in the country. We want to build a healthy and rewarding digital ecosystem for all. Such small steps can create a big impact if we all come together. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Q) What is the future of performance-driven marketing in India?" text="Q) What is the future of performance-driven marketing in India?">Q) What is the future of performance-driven marketing in India?</cmsannotation> As the world becomes more connected, we don’t believe in separating Brand and Performance. We believe growth lies at the intersection of brand and performance because all advertising is about performance; all advertising can and should build brands and drive growth. We unite brand and performance to drive growth in a way that also builds brands. Brands must capture the value and potential impact of every touchpoint to both drive sales and build lifetime value. However, brands can’t just focus on driving short-term sales at the expense of long-term brand health. We balance optimisation and transformation delivering growth today whilst unlocking growth for the future. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Q) Now that you will bring a global perspective to the table for your clients, what would be some of the challenges and opportunities for you? How are you preparing yourself to face it?" text="Q) Now that you will bring a global perspective to the table for your clients, what would be some of the challenges and opportunities for you? How are you preparing yourself to face it?">Q) Now that you will bring a global perspective to the table for your clients, what would be some of the challenges and opportunities for you? How are you preparing yourself to face it?</cmsannotation> I would say that we have the challenge of changing people’s preconceptions about the agency – and to show we’re no longer just a performance agency, but one which is new and offering full end-to-end solutions for clients. However, this is something our clients want; they’re looking for stronger and more integrated solutions from their agency partners. By having just one go-to for our clients we’re able to make it simpler for them – a single-core team of experts that understand their brand, their customer and their business needs. A team that can drive real-time performance that can better inform the long-term acceleration of brand growth. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Q) What are the plans for 2021, in terms of expansion, new business targets, talent acquisition, and technology development? What is your vision for iProspect?" text="Q) What are the plans for 2021, in terms of expansion, new business targets, talent acquisition, and technology development? What is your vision for iProspect?">Q) What are the plans for 2021, in terms of expansion, new business targets, talent acquisition, and technology development? What is your vision for iProspect?</cmsannotation> We need to focus on our current clients and understand how we can better help them succeed and grow their businesses through our dual-lens perspective of brand and performance. We will also look to partner with other brands, both domestic and international, who find themselves at a pivot point in their digital transformation in media. This is where we will make the biggest difference and where our skill sets can drive bigger and better growth for our clients. We believe this new offer will attract a new type of client. Clients who are: • Digital Economy brands - or brands who are trying to master it • Brands who are focused on digital or data transformation to unlock new growth • Growth and performance mindset brands who are looking to outgrow their category. Increasingly, this will attract clients who measure business outcomes and not just media metrics and clients that are looking to challenge the rules to unlock new sources of growth.

The only thing that has remained the same for the agency is its name: Rubeena Singh, iProspect India

<ul><li><keyword id="180259" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Dentsu">dentsu</keyword> international announced the launch of the new iProspect around the world as a game-changing digital-first end-to-end media agency. </li><li>The iProspect teams, in India and in partnership with over 90 other markets, will now collectively define a new era in media and be the first agency to offer performance-driven <keyword id="6698170" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Brand-Building">brand building</keyword> at a global scale.</li></ul>Today, dentsu international has officially launched the new iProspect around the world as a game-changing digital-first end-to-end media agency. The iProspect teams, in India and in partnership with over 90 other markets, will now collectively define a new era in media and be the first agency to offer performance-driven brand building at a global scale. As part of the launch, the <keyword id="3158204" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="New-Agency">new agency</keyword>’s global proposition was revealed: iProspect is an agency born at the intersection, where the science of performance marketing and the art of brand building come together. This unrivalled perspective, grounded in deep digital specialism, enables it to optimise in real-time and with precision, in order to accelerate brand growth, in the short and long term. Through the belief in this proposition, iProspect has adopted the “Brands Accelerated” tagline to sit beneath a reimagined logo within a new, bold and accessible brand identity and website. <keyword id="10937590" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Amanda-Morrissey">Amanda Morrissey</keyword>, Global President, iProspect said, “We are a new force in the industry, one that draws on decades of expertise carefully brought together to create an agile, scaled, digital first organisation built for the future and delivering today. In fact, the only thing that has stayed the same is the name, but even that looks different. With precision and at pace, the new iProspect is able to learn, flex and scale its output to transform a brands’ performance and provide effective business growth; immediately and in the future. Created from the ground up, the new agency has been collectively built by 93 local market teams working together and understanding the necessity for global consistency yet having the insight to locally adapt for their unique client, consumer and market demands. With this approach, the new iProspect is not a classic top-down ‘one size fits all’ global agency model, but more of an ‘all sizes fit within’ agency framework, with the same global vision and purpose” Commenting on the launch, <keyword id="3932871" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="rubeena-singh">Rubeena Singh</keyword>, CEO, <keyword id="3142170" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="iProspect-India">iProspect India</keyword> said, "With the launch of iProspect’s new structure, we are extremely proud to be the first agency to offer performance-driven brand building at scale. Over the years, our mission and vision have definitely evolved and with the rapidly evolving environment, one has to change. The one thing that has stayed constant is that we continue to remain focused on driving business results for our clients. By launching as a new digital-first end-to-end agency, we at iProspect, look forward to bringing future-ready solutions, which will further accelerate brand growth for our clients. With the might and scale of dentsu behind us, this structure is indeed set to define a new era of performance-driven brand building, not only in India but also globally." Evolved capabilities: The new agency will fuse existing capabilities such as brand building, strategic planning, business intelligence, marketing activation and performance optimisation, plus the capabilities of scaled services within dentsu international; to give the teams huge breadth and depth of skills to draw upon to accelerate client growth. Morrissey highlights how iProspect adapts to client need, “We will of course continue to do what our existing clients expect from us, but increasingly we know they want more and, I’m not just talking about upselling bolt-on services, but truly integrated holistic thinking. By bringing together the deep specialisms we have with our brand building experts and also our digital and performance specialists, everyone benefits, and our total offering is enhanced too.” The new iProspect is set up to focus on how consumers behave in their digital world and apply that to real world scenarios via a highly connected and creative use of media, regardless of channel. As digital specialists, its perspective allows it to rapidly optimise the work and adapt to ever-evolving human intent at those pivotal intersections in life, when culture, content, data, and technology meet. These evolved capabilities are delivered by 8,000 dedicated specialists, operating across borders and in 93 markets worldwide. In India, Singh will lead the new agency along with Muddassar Memon, <keyword id="188436" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kaushik-Chakraborty">Kaushik Chakraborty</keyword>, Krishna Kumar, Santosh Mishra and Venkata Dontha to ensure that this new proposition not only meets, but also exceeds, all local and international client’s end-to-end media, marketing, and advertising needs. Regarding local clients, Singh added, “We already partner with some amazing brands here in India, including Fossil, HDFC, Max Life, Biba, KFC and ICICI. Through our new proposition we will continue working with clients, carefully matching their individual needs and our capabilities, so we drive maximum growth for them and their brand.” An accessible brand identity: As well as a new iProspect logo and the “Brands Accelerated” tagline, today’s launch also introduces a brand-new website and representation of its credentials. The new iProspect brand has been designed with accessibility and inclusion at its core. The typography, colour, and visual executions have been reviewed with leading accessibility experts at Microsoft Advertising to ensure that digital environments, platforms, and assets are accessible to all people. These forward thinking and universal design principles open up the brand to everyone, regardless of abilities or other characteristics that can make visual communication challenging, such as colour blindness. Because diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is inherent at iProspect and within dentsu international, the new brand rollout also sees the inclusion of closed captions across its calls, presentations, and videos.

dentsu International launches iProspect as a new agency in India and globally

<ul><li>In <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>, 58% of CEOs compared to 57% CEOs globally agree that ethical challenges are a significant obstacle to adopting generative AI within their organisations, while 56% CEOs in India compared to 55% CEOs globally cite implementation cost as a major barrier.</li><li>Over 89% CEOs in India compared to 87% CEOs globally are likely to reward employees who try to come to office with raises, promotions, and favourable assignments.</li><li>Geopolitical risk was not even a top concern last year and is now the biggest issue for CEOs across the globe. </li></ul>Heavy is the head, they say, that wears the crown. Leadership is the flipside of challenges. One would have thought that the challenges that pandemic brought would make any challenge look like a cake walk. But the era of challenges is not over for corporate captains. According to <keyword id="50041" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="kpmg" source="Orion">KPMG</keyword>’s CEO survey, broader political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are now the greatest risk to business growth. Other thorns in their flesh also include bringing employees back to office and deploying AI across their organisations. KPMG’s survey is based on inputs given by 1,300 CEOs of the world’s largest businesses, of which 125 CEOs were from India. It is not just geopolitics or political instability that gives sleepless nights to industry leaders. From disruptive technologies to bringing employees back to work, CEOs have their task cut out as we leave the pandemic era behind us. Emerging/disruptive technology is a primary risk and one of the greatest threats to organisational growth for CEOs in India as well as globally. CEOs in India and globally are prioritising investments in generative AI as a key competitive advantage for the future, with 66% of CEOs in India compared to and 70% of CEOs globally considering it as a top investment priority for their organisation. For those employees hoping that work from home is here to stay, please beware that company bosses want people to come back. Over 89% CEOs in India compared to 87% CEOs globally are likely to reward employees who try to come to office with raises, promotions, and favourable assignments. Apart from talent and geopolitical risks, CEOs also worry about new disruptive technologies like GenAI. In India, 58% of CEOs compared to 57% CEOs globally agree that ethical challenges are a significant obstacle to adopting generative AI within their organisations, while 56% CEOs in India compared to 55% CEOs globally cite implementation cost as a major barrier. The KPMG 2023 <keyword id="3630354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india-ceo-outlook" source="Orion">India CEO Outlook</keyword> shows geopolitics and political uncertainty have become the leading perceived risk this year for senior executives – concerns that didn’t even make the top three of the five risks in 2022. That said, the confidence of CEOs in India in terms of growth prospects for the global economy over the next three years has considerably increased to 69% in 2023 from 57% in 2022, demonstrating optimism and a strong resilience towards a long-term growth trajectory. The level of confidence of CEOs in India in their own company’s growth prospects too has remained mostly unchanged from the past year (71% in 2023 compared to 72% in 2022), contrary to the declining confidence of CEOs globally (77% in 2023 compared to 85% in 2022), indicating their resilience in weathering the storms of uncertainty. Even though CEOs in India see a slight decline in growth prospects for the country in 2023 from 2022 levels, they exhibit enough resilience to recover in the short-term. However, the volatile nature of geopolitics and trade patterns, combined with rising interest rates and monetary tightening could act as a headwind for companies. Interestingly, only a small fraction of CEOs in India compared to their global counterparts share this viewpoint, which reflects positively on India. “CEOs in India are facing challenges and obstacles to growth on multiple fronts – from geopolitical uncertainty and politicisation to increased stakeholder expectations in the ESG space and the adoption of generative AI. Even though leaders in India are having to deal with macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges right now, they are positive on the growth prospects of the global economy as well as their organisation, which is very reassuring. There’s general optimism that we can, in time, gradually return to long-term sustainable growth,” said <keyword id="272444" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="yezdi-nagporewalla" source="Orion">Yezdi Nagporewalla</keyword>, Chief Executive Officer, KPMG in India. “Today, the opportunity to move towards a fair, equitable and successful planet is huge and leaders should look to make the most of it.The key to success would hinge on steadfast focus on seeing the bigger picture, strategic planning, and determination to tackle the challenges in the short-term with agility,” added <keyword id="12419296" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="nagporewalla" source="Orion">Nagporewalla</keyword>.

Nine in ten Indian CEOs likely to reward back-to-office employees with raises, promotions & more

New Delhi, Feb 17 () Growth in world merchandise trade is expected to remain weak in early 2020 and coronavirus outbreak may dampen trade prospects further, according to the WTO. "World merchandise trade growth is likely to remain weak in early 2020," according to the WTO Goods Trade Barometer released on Monday. This does not augur well for India's exports, which have recorded negative growth from August till January. "It does not account for recent developments such as the outbreak of COVID-19, the new coronavirus disease, which may dampen trade prospects further," it said. WTO (World Trade Organisation) trade statistics showed that the volume of global merchandise trade was down 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the previous year. RR RVK

Coronavirus outbreak may dampen trade prospects further: WTO

<ul><li>
Moody's upgraded India in November 2017, a year after demonetisation, but economic growth has hit a six-year low since then.</li><li>Those who invested based on Moody's upgrade of India would have risked huge losses.</li><li>The current cut in outlook for Indian economy has come after a series of measures by the government to stimulate investment and demand.</li><li>Was 2017 too soon to upgrade India’s credit rating or is 2019 too late to tell people that prospects are bleak?</li></ul>Exactly one year after demonetisation, global credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded India with a ringing endorsement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reforms. But today, three years hence, Moody’s cut the outlook on India’s economic prospects to ‘negative’. Interestingly, the latest cut has come after weeks of continued efforts⁠— from cut in corporate taxes to merging large banks, creating a rescue fund for cash-strapped builders, and other stimulus measures⁠— by the Modi government to revive the economy from the doldrums. However, according to many economists, the current economic slowdown in India has its roots in the ill-advised demonetisation in November 2016, when Prime Minister Modi, in one stroke, banned 86% of all cash circulating in the country. Soon after the note ban came a well-intended but poorly executed rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Together, they threw the business, payments, and credit cycles for small businesses in the country into complete disarray. But that is when Moody’s upgraded India. The Finance Ministry then celebrated as an endorsement of the ‘Modinomics’. 
	
	
	
	
	<div type="twitter" handle="adhia03" handlename="Dr Hasmukh Adhia" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2925511197/d32f3db60b1b3dc824c5a8befab0f651_normal.jpeg" favoritecount="308" retweetcount="122" status="2/3 The path that Government has chosen for long term reforms and fiscal consolidation is well recognised by investors already." createdat="1510887219000" id="931354618977665024"></div>











 However, as Sensex hit new highs in recent days, expecting a windfall for companies from the recent tax cuts and other measures intended to revive the economy, Moody’s has cut the outlook. Not surprisingly, the Finance Ministry hit back immediately. Just like growth projections, credit ratings are important. It plays a part in an investor’s decision on whether to invest more in a country. It moves borrowing rates on foreign loans. But as <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/imf-s-growth-projections-are-80-wrong-eac-pm-member-rathin-roy-117101100846_1.html">pointed out often</a>, the GDP projections⁠— even by reputed institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ⁠— have been amiss more often than not. In the case of Moody’s, those who invested based on the upgrade in November 2017, a year after demonetisation, must have risked huge losses as the economic growth since then slowed down sharply to a six-year low at the end of June 2019. And the slowdown has been broad-based across sectors like textiles, automobiles, aviation, consumption and many more. 
 
 
 
 
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 While not one data point or factor determine ratings or outlook, the question remains in front of Moody's: was 2017 too soon to upgrade India’s credit rating or is 2019 too late to tell people that prospects are bleak? SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/moodys-changes-outlook-on-india-to-negative/articleshow/71966087.cms">Moody's says India's tax cuts, realty rescue, and bailouts are not enough to beat the slowdown</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/recession-in-india-searches-spike-as-gdp-growth-hits-a-six-year-low/articleshow/70922461.cms">Indians were fearing recession even before data showed that GDP growth hit a six-year low</a>

Upgrade post demonetisation, downgrade post tax cuts⁠— Moody's mood swings expose the economist’s inertia

<keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> is well placed to grow at a "moderately brisk rate" in the coming years on the back of macroeconomic stability, despite the global monetary tightening, a finance ministry report said on Thursday. It further said inflationary pressures will ease in the coming months with the arrival of <keyword id="50318" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="kharif" source="Orion">Kharif</keyword> crops and at the same time, job opportunities will increase with improvement in business prospects. The 'Monthly Economic Review for October 2022' also cautioned that the US monetary tightening is a "future risk" which could lead to a dip in stock prices, weaker currencies and higher bond yields, resulting in higher borrowing costs for many governments around the world. It said a rapid deterioration in global growth prospects, high inflation, and worsening financial conditions have increased fears of an impending global recession. The spillovers of the global slowdown may dampen India's exports businesses outlook. However, resilient domestic demand, a re-invigorated investment cycle with a strengthened financial system and structural reforms will provide impetus to economic growth going forward. "In a world where monetary tightening has weakened growth prospects, India appears well placed to grow at a moderately brisk rate in the coming years on account of the priority it accorded (to) macroeconomic stability," the report said. The ministry said, so far in the current year, India's food security concerns have been addressed and will continue to receive the utmost priority from the government. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are also set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months," it said. India's wholesale and retail price inflation fell in October after remaining high for the most part of the year mainly due to supply chain disruptions following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February. Retail or CPI inflation fell to a 3-month low of 6.7 per cent, while wholesale or WPI inflation was at a 19-month low of 8.39 per cent. Russia and Ukraine are among the most important producers of essential agricultural commodities, including wheat, maize, sunflower seeds and inputs like fertilisers. Together with other countries bordering the <keyword id="391209" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="black-sea" source="Orion">Black Sea</keyword>, they constitute the world's breadbasket. Along with an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, the year 2022 also brought to the fore the vulnerability and interconnectedness of the global food system to shocks, the ministry said. India's grain availability was impacted by the untimely heatwaves and deficiency of the southwest monsoon in the current year. However, export restrictions have ensured that the country's needs are fully met, it added. With regard to the job situation, the ministry said in India the recovery in economic activities across sectors has improved the overall employment situation in the country. Net payroll additions in <keyword id="6372438" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="epfo" source="Orion">EPFO</keyword> have witnessed double-digit growth in September 2022, reflecting improved formalisation of the economy. "Hiring by firms is likely to witness an improvement in upcoming quarters driven by a rebound in new business hiring as firms continue to benefit from the lifting of the COVID-19 restrictions and optimism engendered by the vigorous sales volumes experienced during the festive season," the ministry said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/853-tech-firms-lay-off-over-137492-workers-globally-more-job-cuts-coming/articleshow/95741115.cms">853 tech firms lay off over 137,492 workers globally, more job cuts coming</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/indian-startup-using-vegan-leather-raises-4-5-million-funding-led-by-sig-venture-capital/articleshow/95741255.cms">Indian startup using vegan leather raises $4.5 million funding led by SIG Venture Capital</a>

India well placed to grow at a 'moderately brisk rate', inflation to ease says a Finance Ministry report

New Delhi, May 8 () Moody's Investors Service on Friday said the negative outlook on India's rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past and partly hints at weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues. Moody's had, in November 2019, downgraded India's outlook to negative from stable on concerns of lower economic growth. The agency had, however, affirmed country's 'Baa2' rating. In its update to the November forecast released on Friday, the agency said India's credit profile is supported by its large and diverse economy, and stable domestic financing base. This is balanced against high government debt, weak social and physical infrastructure, and a fragile financial sector, which face further pressures amid the coronavirus outbreak, Moody's said in a credit opinion titled 'Government of India- Baa2 negative'. The agency pointed out that the negative outlook reflects increasing risks that economic growth will remain significantly lower than in the past "This is in light of the deep shock triggered by the coronavirus outbreak, and partly reflects lower government and policy effectiveness at addressing long-standing economic and institutional weaknesses, leading to a gradual rise in the debt burden from already high levels," it noted. It said the shock from coronavirus pandemic will exacerbate an already material slowdown in economic growth, which has significantly reduced the prospects for durable fiscal consolidation. Government measures to support the economy should help to reduce the depth and duration of India's growth slowdown, it added. "However, prolonged financial stress among rural households, weak job creation and, more recently, a credit crunch among non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) have increased the probability of a more entrenched weakening," Moody's said. It said prospects of further reforms to support business investment and growth at high levels, and significantly broaden the narrow tax base, have diminished. "If nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth does not return to high rates, we expect that the government will face very significant constraints in narrowing the general government budget deficit and preventing a rise in the debt burden," it added. Last month, Moody's had slashed India's growth forecast for calendar year 2020 to 0.2 per cent from 2.5 per cent projected in March. Moody's said fiscal deficit this year is set to widen materially due to sharp decline in growth and stimulus spending, and weaker government revenue. On March 26, the government announced an Rs 1.7 lakh crore (USD 22.3 billion, about 0.8 per cent of GDP) relief package targeting the most vulnerable segments of society. "Overall, the fiscal stimulus is modest compared with support packages implemented in many other countries, particularly given the breadth of India's nationwide lockdown measures. We expect the government will announce additional measures in the future," Moody's said. The existing package targets medical workers and the most vulnerable segments of society, providing direct cash handouts and food to the poor, and supporting workers under the government's employment guarantee scheme. "While the measures will help reduce some of the economic damage to households, the lockdown and ongoing stress in the financial system will cause a sharp decline in India's overall growth, exacerbating fiscal pressures," it added. JD ANSANS

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