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Earlier this week, former US President Donald Trump revealed that Indian Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> is scheduled to meet with him next week. This potential gathering, set against the backdrop of Trump’s bid for a return to the White House, highlights how global leaders are positioning themselves in anticipation of possible changes in US leadership. “He happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he’s fantastic,” Trump said on Tuesday during a town hall event in Flint, Michigan, while discussing free trade and US job protection. He even went on to call India a “very big abuser” in trade, Al Jazeera reported. Most likely, Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting up with Trump could be an acknowledgment of the latter's potential return to power in the November election, as foreign leaders carefully navigate diplomatic relations with key US political figures. However, neither the Trump campaign nor India’s Ministry of External Affairs have clearly commented on the matter yet, meaning that the Indian leader’s plans of a tête-à-tête with ex US President Trump are foggy at best. During a press conference, foreign secretary <keyword id="20181706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vikram-misri" source="keywords">Vikram Misri</keyword> said, "there are many meetings with the Prime Minister right now which we are trying to fix. Right now, I will not be able to tell you about any specific meeting, whether the meeting has been fixed or not." "We are looking from all angles as to how much time we have and with whom we can hold meetings. We will keep updating you about the meetings," he added. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113444882" title="Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him &amp;#39;fantastic&amp;#39;" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>What we do know with certainty is that Mr Modi is indeed scheduled to travel to the US over the weekend and his calendar is going to be jam-packed. His visit coincides with his planned participation at the <keyword id="23145156" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders Summit</keyword> (including representatives from Australia, India, Japan and the US) in Wilmington, Delaware, hosted by President Joe Biden. As per a White House official, the meet-up will feature "ambitious announcements in multiple areas such as maritime security, high-quality infrastructure and critical and emerging technologies to demonstrate the group’s endurance". Prime Minister Modi will have bilateral meetings with President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday, following the conclusion of the Quad Summit. A special event, the Cancer Moonshot initiative, is also scheduled on the sidelines of the summit. In his meeting with President Biden, India and the US are anticipated to sign several agreements, including those related to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on drug frameworks. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that Modi and Biden will review the comprehensive global strategic partnership between India and the US, which spans over 50 areas of engagement and bilateral dialogue mechanisms. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113085171" title="India is likely to benefit if Trump wins US elections, per Nomura Global Research" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Both leaders will also assess progress in areas of cooperation, though tensions remain due to the alleged assassination plot involving Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The investigation is ongoing, and India has formed a committee to examine the accusations. This visit may serve to ease some of the friction in the relationship. Defence cooperation remains a key area of collaboration between India and the U.S., including agreements on the procurement of 31 MQ-9B Predator drones, joint manufacturing of Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicles, and co-production of GE F414 engines in India. The Ukraine conflict is also expected to be a topic of discussion. Prime Minister Modi is supposed to attend the "Modi &amp; US" community event at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island. The event, already overbooked with more than 24,000 Indian Americans registered for a venue with a capacity of 15,000, has attracted attendees from 42 states, especially the tri-state area. Additionally, PM Modi will allegedly lead a roundtable with CEOs of American companies working in fields like AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and cutting-edge technology. Lastly, on September 23, Modi will address global leaders at the United Nations' Summit of the Future (SOTF) and is expected to hold bilateral meetings with other heads of state attending the UN General Assembly. Obviously, squeezing in a meeting with Trump and Democrat Candidate Kamala Harris (you know, to balance things out) seems unlikely given Mr Modi’s tight schedule. But we’ll have a clearer picture only in the coming days. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111770277" title="PM Modi likely to address high-level UNGA session on Sep 26" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

Why is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the US this weekend?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's Xi Jinping negotiated a truce with India's leader, Narendra Modi.</li><li>They agreed to a patrolling arrangement on a disputed Himalayan border.</li></ul>At the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">BRICS summit</a> in Russia this week, China's leader Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shook hands for the first time in five years.The symbolic moment came after a deal was struck to resolve a long-standing feud between the Asian superpowers.In the lead-up to the summit, the countries announced they had reached a patrolling agreement that would reduce tensions along a disputed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-buying-new-light-tanks-for-himalayan-mountain-warfare-2023-6">Himalayan border.</a>The dispute had led to deadly hand-to-hand combat in recent years, taking the lives of 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese soldiers.After their meeting at the summit hosted by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Xi and Modi said they would continue discussions on resolving the issue.<h2 id="997cee52-7fd6-4283-bf77-94e40a12b5cc">A setback for the US</h2>Some analysts believe it is a development that's unlikely to be welcomed in Washington, DC.The US has sought to recruit India to help it contain China's growing regional aggression alongside other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a security pact that also includes Japan and Australia."So definitely, this is a setback for the United States of America's Indo-Pacific outlook, given the kind of rapprochement we are seeing in India-China relations, and particularly India, China and Russia coming together," Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, told Business Insider."Putin, Xi, and Modi meeting definitely signals that there is a kind of understanding under the carpet that has happened, which is quite subtle," he said.It's an assessment echoed by Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international affairs at Bucknell University."The thaw in India-China relations is a boon to both countries. This is particularly significant for China because India may now be less inclined to confront Beijing as part of Quad," Zhu told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/india-china-deal-raises-questions-about-us-indo-pacific-strategy-/7838623.html">Voice of America. </a>"In this sense, the effectiveness of Quad would be diluted with a less enthusiastic India."<h2 id="baf534cf-4366-41b8-b9ef-d526ffe91fda">Competition between Asia's rival powers intensifies</h2>Tensions have been building between China and India for years.As the two biggest economies in Asia, the countries have long jostled for regional power, with the dispute over the Himalayan border a flashpoint that led to clashes in 2020, 2021, and 2022.Amid the stand-off, Chinese vessels have reportedly surveilled the Indian Ocean in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/another-chinese-research-vessel-spotted-off-india-fuelling-unease-2024-03-11/">what experts told Reuters</a> was a likely intelligence-gathering operation, while India has strengthened its security ties with China's chief global rival, the US.In 2017 India played a key role in restarting the Quad, an alliance designed as a bulwark against growing Chinese influence and aggression in the Asia-Pacific region.But India has long sought to balance its relationship with rival superpowers the US and China, and does not at this point want to tie itself too closely to either side, say analysts.In addition to being a member of the Quad Alliance, it is a founding member of the BRICS, an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-asia-countries-flaunt-russia-putin-diplomacy-relationship-brics-2024-9">association of non-Western economies </a>that China has sought to transform into an alternative global economic power base to the US.<div type="image" title="India-China border" height="683" width="1024" msid="114594056" hostid="261" sizebytes="158650"></div>"This explains why it remains part of multilateral groupings with contradictory goals," said Praveen Donthi, a South Asia analyst with the Eurasia Group in Washington, DC, pointing to both its membership of the US-aligned Quad and China-dominated BRIC group.The truce comes with China on the back foot diplomatically, said Panda, pointing to its damaged relations with Europe and the US after its support f<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</a>"One could draw a conclusion at this point that probably the Chinese are more interested to rebuild the ties with India than the other way round," said Panda.He said there's also the possibility that Xi has reached an agreement with Modi behind the scenes for India to remain silent if China acts on its longstanding ambition to seize back control of Taiwan.Such a move would likely draw in the US and its other regional allies, who have pledged to help defend<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-drone-swarms-uav-us-playing-catch-up-production-2024-10"> Taiwan's independence.</a>"I think China's bigger ambition and target is the Taiwan issue, and therefore they would not really like to continue the kind of tensions they were engaged in with India for the last three to four years," he said."Therefore, they would like to rebuild, and they would like to ensure that India does not react to the Taiwan issue so sensitively."In any case, its a setback in US attempts to include India in a deeper security alliance, he said."For a long time, the US has tried to develop security and defense ties with India," said Panda.For the time being, a truce suits both Russian and Chinese interests, Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, said. But, he added, tensions remain.He said that though both parties have opened discussions about the border dispute, the underlying problem remains unresolved, and future flare-ups are likely.Donthi said the progress between the leaders could also be derailed if tensions between the US and China increase."This comes as a relief after four years of eyeball-to-eyeball troop deployment in the Himalayas. However, it's only the beginning," he said.

Xi undercut the West by negotiating a truce in China's long feud with India

Former president Donald Trump has said Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will meet him next week during his upcoming three-day visit to the US. While the Republican presidential candidate slammed India as an "abuser" on the issue of import tariffs, he described Modi as a "fantastic man". PM Modi will be visiting the US from September 21 to 23. Speaking on Tuesday at his first public appearance following the recent apparent assassination attempt, Trump said Modi will meet him next week when he is in the US. "So when India, which is a very big abuser. He (Modi) happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he's fantastic. I mean, fantastic man. A lot of these leaders are fantastic," Trump said, reiterating that India imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The former president revealed the information as he spoke about trade and tariffs while responding to a question at a town hall meeting in Flint, Michigan. He went on to say, "These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards...You know the expression, they're at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough....China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs." "So we're going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us USD 2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing. And what's going to happen? Everything's going to disappear, and we're going to end up having free trade again. And if it doesn't disappear, we're going to take in a lot of money," he said. Modi will begin his trip with the <keyword id="23214075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders' Summit</keyword> being hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. The summit will be attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. Modi will then travel to New York and address a mega community event in Long Island on September 22. He will address world leaders at the landmark Summit of the Future event at the UN headquarters the next day. Modi's visit comes less than two months before the US heads into presidential elections with Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the top job. The US general elections will take place on November 5.

Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him 'fantastic'

At the invitation of Russian President <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword>, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President <keyword id="19946362" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Xi-Jinping" source="keywords">Xi Jinping</keyword> will attend the 16th <keyword id="21003379" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BRICS-summit" source="keywords">BRICS Summit</keyword> in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-23, 2024. The summit will focus on the theme "Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security," providing a key platform for leaders to discuss pressing global issues and explore opportunities for collaboration. The <keyword id="20037428" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BRICS" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BRICS" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="BRICS">BRICS</keyword> group, originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2006, has grown to include South Africa, and recently expanded further to welcome Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, making it a 10-member bloc. <keyword id="19911498" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Putin" source="keywords">Putin</keyword> sees this <keyword id="23595116" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="expanded-BRICS" source="keywords">expanded BRICS</keyword> as a counterweight to Western dominance in global politics and trade. During his visit, <keyword id="19899320" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="PM-Modi" source="keywords">PM Modi</keyword> is expected to hold bilateral meetings with fellow BRICS leaders and other invited representatives, aiming to strengthen partnerships and advance shared objectives. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs emphasised that the summit will offer a valuable opportunity to evaluate the progress of BRICS initiatives and identify new areas for future collaboration. Modi's visit to Russia follows an informal meeting with Putin in Moscow earlier this year and a call in August, where the Indian leader urged for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict. The upcoming summit highlights the growing <keyword id="23595115" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-significance" source="keywords">geopolitical significance</keyword> of BRICS in reshaping global dynamics. (With inputs from sources)

PM Modi to meet Putin and Xi Jinping at BRICS summit in Russia on October 22-23

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's Navy Day saw participation from India and China, bolstering Putin's anti-Western ties.</li><li>There was a notable absence of Russia's Black Sea Fleet at the parade, after losses to Ukraine.</li></ul>Russia's Navy Day saw warships from India and China join the celebrations as President Vladimir Putin sought to project the strength of his anti-Western alliance.China sent the Jiaozuo, a Type 052D destroyer, and India sent the Tabar, a stealth frigate, to the naval parade in St Petersburg on Sunday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/MID_Russia/43624">according to Russia's foreign ministry</a>.Algeria also sent La Soummam, a training ship, the ministry said.<div type="image" title="Chinese navy destroyer Jiaozuo in St Petersburg, Russia to participate in the Navy parade in July 2024." height="667" width="1000" msid="112115940" hostid="261" sizebytes="68584"></div>According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-28-2024">the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War</a>, the gathering was meant "to showcase Russia's relations with a number of non-Western states as part of efforts to create a supposed Russian-led group of states to rally against the West."In total, representatives of 31 countries — including Cuba, Vietnam, Egypt, and Brazil — attended, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://aif.ru/politics/russia/ne-odna-na-prostorah-okeana-v-parade-vmf-prinyali-uchastie-druzya-rossii">according to Russian state-owned outlet Argumenty i Fakty</a>.The parade came amid ongoing efforts by the Kremlin to deepen ties with countries like India and China, which have sent warships to the Navy Day celebrations in previous years.<div type="image" title="Four children wave flags saying 'welcome back' in front of India's Tabar stealth frigate in Bombay, on 31 July 2004" height="500" width="1000" msid="112115942" hostid="261" sizebytes="51970"></div>Despite claiming not to support Russia's war in Ukraine, China has emerged as a major supplier of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/04/12/china-sending-russia-missile-and-drone-parts-for-ukraine-war-us-reportedly-warns/">dual-use parts</a> crucial to its war effort — the sort of support that the US government has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-says-china-giving-russia-support-behind-scenes-ukraine-war-2024-5">repeatedly called it out for</a>.The two countries have also long participated in joint military exercises and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jul/22/2003507411/-1/-1/0/DOD-ARCTIC-STRATEGY-2024.PDF">the Pentagon recently said</a> they are showing increasing willingness to collaborate in the Arctic.Even so, China and Russia's ties appear to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-and-russia-are-in-a-bad-marriage-that-the-west-shouldnt-try-to-break-up-2024-6">uneasy</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7">opportunistic</a>, built more on a common desire to tamp down Western influence.Meanwhile, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">recent trip</a> to Russia to meet with Putin also appeared to signal an indifference to US disapproval from India.President Joe Biden has attempted to persuade Modi to take a harder line on Russia, but this has <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">largely failed</a>.<h3 id="ce577fa9-a485-44dd-a9e2-a3d031d664c7">A conspicuous absence</h3>While Russia's Navy Day celebrations typically involve all its main military port cities, this year's didn't include Sevastopol, the naval base in occupied Crimea that hosts Russia's Black Sea Fleet.Prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Sevastopol regularly featured in the parade despite <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5f1fce329a79479d6ddfc9ad">the objections</a> of Ukraine's government.But now it is an active hot-war zone under continual pressure from Ukrainian forces, and Russia has largely relocated the remains of the fleet to the safer port of Novorossiysk, on its own shores.Commentators were quick to point out Sevastopol's absence, with European Council on Foreign Relations chief Carl Bildt posting the following graphic to X, making plain the extent of the fleet's losses: Meanwhile, Putin devoted part of his speech on the day to warning the US that Russia would retaliate if it pressed ahead with recently announced plans to locate long-range missile systems in Germany by 2026.Putin said his forces will take "mirror measures" in response.

India and China joined Russia's Navy Day celebrations as Putin tries to project anti-Western group

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi had his power pegged back in elections this week. </li><li>It was also the 35th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in China. </li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/narendra-modi-won-already-seeing-cost-him-allies-cabinet-funding-2024-6">Narendra Modi's strongman ambitions</a> suffered a setback this week.His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party fell<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/narendra-modi-win-bjp-india-election-explained-2024-6"> short of the landslide victory </a>many had predicted in the Indian elections.As Modi becomes India's prime minister for a third time, his party will have to enter into a power-sharing agreement with alliance partners.It's a chastening lesson from the Indian electorate for Modi, who, while boosting India's global standing, has been accused of stoking division and weakening India's democracy.On the same day as the Indian election results, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/on-the-35th-anniversary-of-tiananmen-square/">the world marked the 35th anniversary </a>of the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which saw a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing.In the decades since, China has slid back into Maoist-style authoritarianism.The events this week highlighted how the competition between India and China is about more than raw power. It's also a competition between two very different political ideologies.<h2 id="6acd91a8-36b3-408f-85c1-259d5944f4e0">India is a flawed but thriving democracy</h2>India is the world's largest democracy. Its first elections were held in 1951-52 after it gained independence from Britain. Free elections have been held in nearly every election cycle since, with a coup in 1975 briefly threatening India's democratic status.It is a rare bright spot in a world where democracy seems to be in retreat. Even in the US, the global champion of democracy, former president Donald Trump is accused of launching an attempt to cling to power illegally after losing the 2020 election.<div type="image" title="Indian voters" height="683" width="1024" msid="110819479" hostid="261" sizebytes="88454"></div>"India isn't a perfect democracy but it is still a role model for developing nations, large or small. And given trends in some Western democracies, I would have to say that there are several things they, too, should be learning from India," said Jabin T. Jacob, an expert on India-China relations at Shiv Nadar University, India.India's democracy, though, faces a stern test under Modi, say critics. Global democracy watchdog <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56393944">Freedom House in 2021</a> downgraded India's democratic status, saying Modi's Hindu nationalist movement had menaced journalists, attacked Muslims, and corroded civil liberties.Jacob said this week's results showed India's democracy remained resilient despite the pressures, while dealing a blow to a leader seen to have overstepped his authority."We have just seen an election in which the Indian electorate decided that their interests are best served by power shared more evenly among a set of political formations that represent diverse interests and aspirations. That is the essence of democracy," he said."The Indian electorate is a very mature one, and it has always intervened in a timely fashion against authoritarian tendencies in its rulers."It's unclear whether Modi will now double down on the nationalism he's championed or seek a more moderate path based on economic reform.<h2 id="c1fe728e-200a-4edb-8d77-94ea6111c952">China's rise comes at a high cost</h2>There are those in India, though, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/daa87f88-ae0e-11e3-974d-00144feab7de">who have been astonished</a> at the speed and efficiency of China's rise to economic superpower status.China has become the world's second-largest economy, and the lives of millions of ordinary Chinese people have been transformed. Though India has made huge economic progress under Modi, it still lags behind.<div type="image" title="China high speed rail" height="644" width="1024" msid="110819477" hostid="261" sizebytes="117068"></div>"Perhaps the greatest challenge democracy faces in India is that is has failed to deliver the kind of sustained economic development enjoyed by neighbors like China over the last four decades. It has also failed to eliminate extreme poverty," wrote Chatham House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/04/democracy-india">analyst Gareth Price in 2022.</a>But with prosperity in China, has come reduced freedom.Since Tiananmen Square 35 years ago, China's Communist Party has rolled back many of the freedoms its citizens once had.Its current leader, Xi Jinping, has imposed a draconian surveillance state and is considered <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-ai-wreak-havoc-america-world-economy-2024-6">China's most authoritarian ruler</a> since Mao Tse Tung.Dominic Chiu, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider that China's system had given it an economic advantage — but at a cost."China's one-party rule in the reform era enabled consistent long-term policymaking and economic planning," he said. "This benefited China's economy immensely when the leadership decided to liberalize markets, privatize industries, and open the country up to foreign investment." But, he said, China's repressive one-party system was also deterring investors. And with China's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-falls-out-of-love-with-natural-diamonds-industry-struggles-2024-6">economy experiencing a steep </a>downturn, this poses a serious problem for its future growth.<h2 id="ebafe111-fa5e-49b8-95d3-f92a674d0da2">China and India vie for dominance</h2>Having achieved economic superpower status, China is now seeking to assert its power more aggressively both regionally and internationally.Tensions with India are increasing. In 2020, clashes along the countries' Himalayan border resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese.<div type="image" title="India-China border" height="683" width="1024" msid="110819475" hostid="261" sizebytes="158650"></div><a target="_blank" href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/modi-mission-assert-indias-global-123002908.html">Analysts told BI</a> that building stronger alliances to counter Chinese aggression will be one of the core aims of Modi's third term.And its commitment to democracy hands it an important advantage, said Jacob."India's democratic status is critical for its international standing. It is an opportunity to develop a model of economic and political development that is both equitable and democratic and thus distinct from the aggressive capitalism of the US or the authoritarianism of the PRC," he said.In 2021, India entered<a target="_blank" href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/modi-went-straight-reelection-needling-103142130.html"> into the "Quad" partnership </a>with democracies the US, Japan, and Australia, to counter what is perceived as growing Chinese aggression in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.It's a political alliance that would've been more difficult to broker if India was ruled by an authoritarian government,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/democracy-and-the-us-india-relationship/"> say observers.</a><h2 id="b9b7d5ac-0c25-43f4-adf2-9128d9242020">Competing nationalist visions</h2>Some analysts, though, say that the competition between India and China is not, at its core, about competing political systems but about competing nationalist visions.According to this interpretation, both Xi and Modi are committed to restoring what they see as their nation's rightful place at the top of the global order.But in his quest to strengthen India, critics are warning Modi not to undermine the commitment to democracy and pluralism they believe is at the heart of its post-independence success.Jacob said those in India jealous of China's economic might should look more closely at the reality."Indians who argue against democracy using the China comparison clearly don't understand anything about the reality of China and the Chinese people," he said.

The competition between India and China is about more than raw power

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India wants to unseat China as the new factory of the world.</li><li>Modi is set to stay in power for another five years, but the results of the election are going to make it harder to beat China.</li></ul>India's economy is on a roll, chalking up <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/PressNoteGDP31052024.pdf">8.2% GDP growth</a> in the last fiscal year and a boom in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/india-eyes-100-bln-annual-foreign-direct-investment-coming-years-it-minister-2024-01-17/">foreign investments.</a>The growth is in part thanks to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-supply-chain-covid-sanctions-manufacturers-relocating-tariffs-options-2022-12">shift in supply chains</a> and investment flows as companies try to stop relying solely on China.This has boosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal, sending him to a historic third term as the country's prime minister in the country's general election.But Modi's win this time around also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6?mrfhud=true">comes with a huge loss</a>.While Modi is still hugely popular in India, his party — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP</a> — lost its majority in Parliament, reflecting resentment among voters amid rising <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-richest-1-has-highest-concentration-wealth-decades-study-shows-2024-03-20/">inequality.</a>"The problem is most Indians have not adequately participated in the fruits of an economy with gaudy headline numbers," wrote Atman Trivedi, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-modi-loses-ground-electoral-surprise/">Tuesday note.</a> "Growth is unequal, and jobs are few and far between."India's unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&amp;dt=20240502160006&amp;msec=476">Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy,</a> a private think tank. The country has a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=881bbd696b99c4065e343b97a60624443ddd9aabed87bc59213e9c4e53b5de60&amp;postID=665fc5bbe01a10ede1be40ec&amp;postSlug=india-election-results-complicates-plans-unseat-china-modi-bjp-2024-6&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fd41586-023-03915-5">longstanding brain drain issue.</a><h2 id="2c7371a5-8197-477c-a8db-86744aed6de4">India wants to unseat China as the factory of the world</h2>BJP's likely loss of its majority is a testament to India's political system — but it will also make the dream of becoming the next China harder to achieve.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-business-market-entry-barriers-tariffs-supply-chain-china-2023-6">Decision-making and policy changes</a> in the world's largest democracy, after all, can take far longer than they do in Communist China — a one-party state."Coalition governments require compromises. That reality could complicate any plans for ambitious structural reforms on land, labor, or opening India's markets to unfinished and intermediate inputs," wrote the Atlantic Council's Trivedi, who is also a partner at Albright Stonebridge Group.India's stock markets tanked on the shock election results, with the benchmark <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/sensex">Sensex</a> index crashing over 5% in one day on Tuesday following the news. It rebounded on Wednesday.Despite the knee-jerk reaction, most analysts are optimistic about India's economic outlook given that Modi is still in charge."Modi's broader economic reform agenda is likely to remain intact. And so, fears of India's key economic reforms unraveling are overdone," wrote Vishnu Varathan, the chief economist of Asia excluding Japan at Mizuho Bank.<h2 id="d51e0b52-c0b2-432c-977a-5640abaef074">India needs to get rich before it gets old</h2>But India has a longer-term problem: aging.India is the world's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-overtake-china-worlds-most-populous-nation-2023-un-2022-7">most populous country</a>. With a 1.4 billion population, it has a huge pool of young people; <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/india-s-demographic-dividend-the-key-to-unlocking-its-global-ambitions">65% of its population</a> is under the age of 35.But aging is "rapidly progressing," according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://india.unfpa.org/en/news/indias-ageing-population-why-it-matters-more-ever">United Nations Population Fund.</a> By 2050, one in every five persons in India will be 60 years old or above, the fund wrote in a <a target="_blank" href="https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/20230926_india_ageing_report_2023_web_version_.pdf">report last year.</a>So, even though India has grown rapidly in recent years, it will need to grow much faster to get rich before it gets old, Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2024/06/04/g-s1-2226/india-election-democracy-china-economy-manufacturing">NPR's "Planet Money"</a> in a podcast.It's not enough to power up India's manufacturing sector in the wake of China's breakneck growth — because so many other countries are doing the same thing, added Rajan, who is a former head of the Central Bank of India and a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.He said India will do better to capitalize on its services industry, especially since so many Indians are English speakers.Despite its challenges, India is still expected to post healthy growth in the near future. The IMF <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IND">forecasts</a> India's economy will grow by 6.8% this fiscal year and 6.5% next fiscal year.

India wants to be the new China. Modi's shock election result shows it won't be easy.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>"We will not stop at that (three carriers)," India's defense minister recently said.</li><li>Five or six aircraft carriers would give India a force equal to that of China.</li></ul>India may build a fleet of five to six new aircraft carriers, according to a comment from the country's defense minister that's been widely debated about whether that's a good strategy or if the offhand remark was even serious.The Indian Navy operates two small aircraft carriers. Four more would give India a carrier force on par with China's growing one. And it would not be much smaller — at least in number of vessels — than the US Navy's 11 supercarriers.But whether this ambitious shipbuilding project will happen is another matter. Many Indian experts are convinced it's a bad idea.Exactly what the Indian government is thinking isn't clear. During an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/work-on-third-aircraft-carrier-to-start-soon-more-to-follow-says-rajnath-621319">interview</a> with an Indian newspaper regarding plans to construct a third aircraft carrier, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said India would build yet more. "We will not stop at that (three carriers)," he said. "We will make five, six more."Some Indian experts aren't sure the government is even serious about this. The defense minister "seemingly made an off-the-cuff remark that was picked up by the media," Abhijit Singh, a former Indian naval officer and now an analyst at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi, told Business Insider. "He was only trying to dispel suggestions that the government is resistant to a proposal for a third aircraft carrier."Nonetheless, there are compelling reasons why India might want a large carrier fleet. India's rival China now has three carriers, including the newly launched 80,000-ton <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-newest-aircraft-carrier-seen-with-aircraft-mock-ups-images-2024-4">Fujian</a>, and may aim for a fleet of six carriers by 2035. China — which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-troops-beat-indian-soldiers-batons-wrapped-in-barbed-wire-2020-6">fought</a> border clashes with India in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/after-himalayan-clash-india-prepares-navy-to-take-on-china-2021-6">Himalayas</a> in 2020 — is beginning to project its power into the <a target="_blank" href="https://warontherocks.com/2024/05/its-still-the-indian-ocean-parsing-sino-indian-naval-competition-where-it-counts/">Indian Ocean</a>, which is India's maritime backyard."It is expected that the Chinese will permanently station one of its CBGs [carrier battle groups] in the Indian Ocean, supported by its various bases in Djibouti (on the western edge of the Indian Ocean), <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rapid-construction-at-cambodia-base-amid-concern-about-china-presence-2021-6">Ream in Cambodia</a> (on the eastern edge of the Indian Ocean), and Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar," warned India's <a target="_blank" href="https://swarajyamag.com/defence/countering-chinas-expansion-india-to-build-five-to-six-more-aircraft-carriers-in-future-defence-minister-rajnath-singh">Swarajya</a> magazine.Interestingly, Swarajya magazine also suggested that carriers could project Indian power into the South China Sea, which is China's maritime backyard. Indian warships have periodically sailed in those waters.<div type="image" title="A view from the sloped bow of the INS Vikrant that carries MiG-29K fighter jets." height="1333" width="2000" msid="110619274" hostid="261" sizebytes="239670"></div>India has two carriers of around 45,000 tons each: the Vikramaditya (a refurbished former Soviet vessel) and the Vikrant, India's first home-built carrier. Both are <a target="_blank" href="https://interestingengineering.com/lists/ski-jumps-catapults-aircraft-carrier">ski-jump</a> designs that launch the troubled Soviet-era MiG-29K under its own power because it lacks catapults. Despite early speculation that the proposed third carrier would be a 65,000-ton ski-jump design similar to Britain's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uks-flagship-carrier-embarrassing-setback-pulls-out-big-nato-exercise-2024-2">Queen Elizabeth-class</a>, the Indian government appears to be opting for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsweek.com/india-third-aircraft-carrier-china-indian-pacific-ocean-region-1847935">45,000-ton vessel</a> similar to the Vikrant, and carrying French-made <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/frances-rafale-fighter-jet-popular-dassault-cant-keep-up-2024-3">Rafale fighters</a>.This means that Indian carriers would continue to be less than half the size of the 100,000-ton, nuclear-powered US Nimitz- and Ford-class behemoths, which are equipped with steam or electromagnetic catapults that can launch heavier planes, especially airborne early warning aircraft; China's Fujian also uses an advanced electromagnetic catapult. They would also be less expensive, with the third Indian carrier estimated at around $5 billion, compared to $13 billion for a Ford-class carrier.In fact, some Indian naval experts would prefer a larger carrier equipped with catapults. "Small aircraft carriers, like those India possesses, are increasingly vulnerable and unlikely to play a significant role in future conflicts," Singh, the defense analyst, said. "Unfortunately, the country lacks the funding for a large carrier and can only afford another small flattop. This presents a predicament with no easy solutions."On the other hand, there is a reason why America builds enormously expensive aircraft carriers. Its global interests arguably require the ability to dispatch and maintain floating airfields around the world, often in distant places where airbases aren't available. For India and China, which have a more regional focus, smaller vessels may suffice.For India, carriers are more than floating airfields. They are symbols of national power. Thus regardless of their military utility against a powerful adversary like China, carriers would enable India support other operations, such as humanitarian, peacekeeping and anti-piracy missions."The consensus among India's maritime observers is that the aircraft carrier remains central to maritime strategy, not just for its ability to dominate the littoral but also for its crucial peacetime role," said Abhijit Singh. "In less-than-war situations, the flattop can shift the psychological balance in ways no other naval platform can. Despite its drawbacks, the aircraft carrier's aura and impact in peacetime operations are unmatched."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

A bizarre comment stirred speculation India may try to match China's carrier fleet 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! If you're a federal worker in Washington, DC, and you're not headed into the office today, just know that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-dc-federal-workers-should-go-back-to-office-2024-9">JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is very disappointed in you</a>.In today's big story, China isn't proving to be the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-recession-economy-american-companies-profits-trade-war-2024-9">economic promised land US companies once hoped for</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: The economy's fate might depend on grandma and grandpa <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomers-recession-us-economy-housing-market-stocks-selloff-spending-2024-9">keeping their cool</a>.</li><li>Tech: Attention millennials: Your services are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-ageism-tech-jobs-gen-z-boomers-2024-9">no longer needed by Big Tech</a>.</li><li>Business: It's America's wealthiest town, but <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/billionaire-bunker-miami-bezos-tom-brady-ivanka-trump-security-2024-9">don't even think about trying to get in</a>.</li></ul>But first, I think it's time to leave.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Quitting China</h2><div type="image" title="Xi Jinping in front of the American and Chinese flag ripping apart" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113604508" hostid="261" sizebytes="116106"></div>American businesses have worn out their welcome in China.US-China relations have been on shaky ground for a while, to put it mildly. But despite the growing animosity, US corporations' push to sell things to Chinese consumers has been a middle ground everyone can agree on. (As always, money is the great equalizer.)But China's goal of being less reliant on foreign businesses and supporting domestic companies is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-recession-economy-american-companies-profits-trade-war-2024-9">blowing up one of the country's last good relationships with the US</a>, writes Business Insider's Linette Lopez.It's a marked change from the past few decades when China was the next frontier for US companies. But for US giants like Apple, Starbucks, and Nike, China doesn't offer the same growth opportunities it once did.One issue is domestic competition. Chinese consumers increasingly favor homegrown companies over imports (i.e. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-16-huawei-mate-xt-smartphone-competition-china-market-2024-9">Huawei over Apple</a>).But that's not the only headwind US companies face. China's economy, quite frankly, isn't doing too hot.The great pandemic rebound that Wall Street was banking on never materialized. Instead, slowing industrial growth, a shaky real-estate market, and diminishing consumer demand has China on its heels and at risk of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-growth-targets-axa-investment-property-sector-industrial-production-2024-9">missing its growth targets</a>.US companies might be missing out on a revenue opportunity, but China is suffering as well. As the dollars dry up, US companies are less incentivized to play mediator between Washington and Beijing.<div type="image" title="Xi Jinping standing on a pile of microchips with the Cinese stars on top" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113604512" hostid="261" sizebytes="554430"></div>Still, China has one massive bargaining chip, literally.The world's economic hopes and dreams are banking heavily on artificial intelligence. And Taiwan, which China claims, plays a key role in that equation.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company makes vital hardware components for most the world's chip companies, including industry giant Nvidia. So China's potential invasion of Taiwan, a growing concern, could throw the AI industry into disarray.Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently said his company <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-taiwan-tsmc-jensen-huang-china-disruption-2024-9">has a backup plan if things were to kick off in Taiwan</a>. But he also acknowledged concessions would be made."Maybe the process technology is not as great. Maybe we won't be able to get the same level of outperformance or cost, but we will be able to provide the supply," Huang said.That's a scary outcome considering the AI industry has spent the past few months trying to explain to customers and investors the benefits they'll get from their pricey investments in the tech.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Israel's campaign in Lebanon is stepping up, with <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-strikes-lebanon-hezbollah-posts-warns-civilians-move-away-2024-9">the IDF warning civilians to move away from Hezbollah targets</a>.</li><li>The lawyer for Trump's new crypto firm was accused of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-crypto-lawyer-at-previous-firm-2024-9">trying to take over another digital asset company</a>.</li><li>'A complete waste of time': what to avoid <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/private-college-scholarship-waste-of-time-trap-strategies-financial-aid-2024-9">when you're hustling to pay for college</a>.</li><li>Here's what Google's new finance chief will need to do <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-cfo-analysts-ai-subscription-growth-2024-9">to keep investors happy</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Senior couple enjoying a relaxing float in a pool with a downward trending stock line depicted at the bottom of the pool" height="900" width="1200" msid="113604517" hostid="261" sizebytes="180224"></div><ol><li>How baby boomers could make the economy go bust. America's richest generation might upend the economy if they get spooked by a mild correction in the stock market or home prices. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomers-recession-us-economy-housing-market-stocks-selloff-spending-2024-9">Panic selling and a pullback on spending</a> from a group that's been key to the economy's growth would spell disaster.</li><li>It's not sexy, but life insurance is a great way the ultrarich avoid taxes. Putting an insurance policy inside of a trust means the death benefit is excluded from estate taxes. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rich-life-insurance-estate-taxes-ilit-2024-9">It also protects the remaining assets from lawsuits</a>.</li><li>Trump? Harris? One billionaire investor isn't a fan of either's economic policies. Howard Marks said both presidential candidates are "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-presidential-election-housing-price-gouging-tariffs-taxes-debt-2024-9">making promises that ignore economic reality</a>" by either failing to understand the problem or disregarding the costs that come with it. Marks takes issue with Trump's tariff and tax plans and Harris' anti-price gouging policy.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="A baby staring at a laptop" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113604515" hostid="261" sizebytes="428926"></div><ol><li>Millennials are facing ageism. They used to be Big Tech's hottest hires, but new data suggests otherwise. The number of US tech workers over the age of 40 is shrinking while tech workers under 25 are becoming more common. This isn't good news, but <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/millennials-ageism-tech-jobs-gen-z-boomers-2024-9">it does validate a suspicion</a> many millennials have had for a while.</li><li>Examining a potential Intel-Qualcomm deal. Qualcomm's reported takeover offer comes at a critical juncture <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-qualcomm-takeover-bid-layoffs-foundry-spin-off-2024-9">for America's fallen tech giant</a>. But the odd-couple marriage won't necessarily solve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-qualcomm-odd-couple-wont-solve-us-chipmaking-woes-2024-9">the US' chipmaking woes</a>. Also, Qualcomm isn't alone — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-talks-investment-apollo-qualcomm-2024-9">Apollo is reportedly eyeing a $5bn investment</a> in Intel.</li><li>TikTok ban? Don't know her. TikTok's days are technically numbered in the US. Try telling that to the advertisers, employees, and creators who are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-tiktok-ban-marketers-employees-creators-are-not-worried-2024-9">carrying on business-as-usual</a>. The creator economy is exuding confidence, but there are other storms in TikTok's skies: It's losing a big marketing boss as part of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-marketing-head-is-out-in-leadership-shake-up-2024-9">a shock leadership shake-up</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo collage of JD Vance amongst preschool children in a classroom setting" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113604507" hostid="261" sizebytes="125794"></div><ol><li>JD Vance thinks grandparents should be families' childcare plan. Childcare workers think that's "ridiculous." Experts in the childcare industry say Vance's plan is not grounded in "the reality of Americans today." Care workers would rather the government spend more on early-childhood programs — which is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-childcare-plan-providers-teachers-criticize-policy-2024-9">the opposite of Vance's plan</a>.</li><li>Welcome to Billionaire Fortress, USA. Indian Creek Village, a private island city in Florida, is America's wealthiest town. Tom Brady and Jeff Bezos are among the island's 89 residents. <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/billionaire-bunker-miami-bezos-tom-brady-ivanka-trump-security-2024-9">But good luck getting in</a> — it's also America's most gated community in a country full of gates.</li><li>MrBeast is taking a gamble. The world's biggest YouTuber is launching a new product while remaining tight-lipped about his recent string of controversies. Marketing experts say the release could be a good PR move, but that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mrbeasts-lunchly-launch-during-controversy-may-be-a-good-idea-2024-9">it comes with risks</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Detention hearing for Ryan Routh, the man accused of attempting to shoot Donald Trump on his golf course last weekend.</li><li>G7 foreign ministers meet.</li><li>World Economic Forum holds sustainable development impact meetings.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Jack Sommers, deputy editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

China's worsening relationship with US businesses could put AI's chip supply on shaky ground 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India and China's rivalry will likely intensify in the Indian prime minister's third term in office.</li><li>Both countries have self-reliance as a policy priority — which means they will both go big into manufacturing.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi</a> this week secured a historic third term in office — and it's likely to intensify India's economic rivalry with China.As David Lubin, a senior research fellow at London-based think tank <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/06/achieve-developed-india-modis-new-government-will-prioritize-manufacturing-sector-better-or">Chatham House,</a> wrote on Thursday, the rivalry is likely to heat up because Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have the same obsession for their country: self-reliance.Modi has a vision for <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/mission-2047-india-charts-road-to-a-developed-economy/articleshow/108953808.cms?from=mdr">Viksit Bharat, or "Developed India,"</a> that sets a pathway for the South Asian giant to become a developed economy by 2047.Meanwhile, Xi's vision for China is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-26/xi-s-vow-of-world-dominance-by-2049-sends-chill-through-markets">global dominance by 2049.</a>"Competition for economic leadership in Asia is in the air," wrote Lubin.<h2 id="a2dd3c88-d3f0-4b03-a2a9-5ef7ac76ad48">Both India and China will be focused on manufacturing</h2>To reach its goal, Modi's India will likely be going big on manufacturing."The pursuit of national greatness is, essentially, a relative game, and for India, the comparison that matters is with China," wrote Lubin.Since self-reliance is a policy priority for both India and China, "an obsession with manufacturing is likely to accompany it," Lubin wrote.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/IND">India's GDP</a> of $3.9 trillion is far behind <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CHN">China's $18.5 trillion GDP</a>. And China has served as the world's factory floor for the last four decades — but the tides are changing.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-trade-war-covid-companies-moving-supply-chains-2022-12">Companies are diversifying their operations </a>outside China to avoid over-relying on one country, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-supply-chain-covid-sanctions-manufacturers-relocating-tariffs-options-2022-12">India is aiming to be the new China.</a>Given that India is now the world's most populous nation — with <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/india-s-demographic-dividend-the-key-to-unlocking-its-global-ambitions">65% of its population</a> under the age of 35 — there are huge opportunities for the South Asian nation.However, with Modi's party losing its parliamentary majority, this means it will be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-complicates-plans-unseat-china-modi-bjp-2024-6">much harder for his adminstration</a> to push through much-needed land and labor reforms to supercharge growth.In addition, as Raghuram Rajan, a former head of the Central Bank of India, told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2024/06/04/g-s1-2226/india-election-democracy-china-economy-manufacturing">NPR's "Planet Money",</a> India is wading into a crowded space with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-trade-war-covid-companies-moving-supply-chains-2022-12">other emerging nations</a> such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Malaysia with their skin in the game.Rajan said India would do better to focus on the service industry, since the country already has a large English-speaking population.But Delhi is throwing big money to catch up with China, including over $20 billion worth of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investindia.gov.in/production-linked-incentives-schemes-india">incentives and subsidies</a> to encourage output in 14 key sectors including electronics, automobiles, and EV batteries.It's also provided <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-renews-process-10-bln-semiconductor-incentive-scheme-bloomberg-news-2023-05-10/">another $10 billion</a> for the semiconductor chip industry — a hot strategic sector that Taiwan has an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5">outsized presence in.</a>India has been trying to woo <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-26/india-woos-intel-and-tsmc-to-set-up-local-semiconductor-plants">Taiwan's chip plants</a> to invest in the country and has had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/india-approves-three-chipmaking-units-worth-152-bln-2024-02-29/">some success.</a><h2 id="421605ca-e5e5-4946-afcf-cf011993a870">India's rocky relationship with China</h2>Given India's ongoing rivalry with China and the Modi government's eagerness to attract Taiwan investments, the Delhi-Beijing relationship is also off to a rocky start as the Indian leader kicks off his new term.On Tuesday, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-straight-from-reelection-anger-china-taiwan-india-2024-6">Modi angered China</a> — which claims Taiwan as its own territory — when he accepted Taiwanese President William Lai's congratulations following India's elections."China opposes all forms of official interactions between the Taiwan authorities and countries having diplomatic relations with China," Mao Ning, the spokesperson for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/202406/t20240606_11405886.html">China's foreign ministry,</a> said at a scheduled press conference on Thursday.India's foreign policy toward China is unlikely to change following Modi's re-election, Ivan Lidarev, an Asian security scholar at King's College London, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/watch/what-does-modis-weakened-mandate-mean-indias-rivalry-china-4391006">Channel NewsAsia.</a>"India has pursued a very active foreign policy of kind of getting closer with the West and counterbalancing China for many years," he told the network. "There is a very strong consensus within India about this."China, meanwhile, will try to limit India's influence on the global stage, he said."I think India has strived to position itself as a leader of the global south, and of course, China wants this position," added Lidarev. "So we think that this competition is going to increase and I think that Beijing will do a lot to limit any Indian attempts to be seen as the natural leader of the world."

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